Perspectives on Integrated Deterrence Among US Allies and Partners in Europe

Author: Dr. Sabrina Polansky (NSI, Inc.)

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This work was situated within the broader Strategic Multilayer Assessment Strategic Deterrence Frameworks (SDF) study, which incorporated four lines of effort (LOEs) and was initiated at the request of US Strategic Command (USSTRATCOM). The present LOE4 study was oriented around two guiding questions in a supplementary project request letter signed by US European Command (EUCOM) Deputy Commander, Lieutenant General Steven Basham: 1) How does USEUCOM deter with and through allies and partners as part of integrated deterrence? and 2) What is the optimal balance of US and ally commitment and capability to maintain an effective deterrent to aggression in Europe?

This study conceptualizes integrated deterrence as incorporating multiple elements, including coordination that occurs across domains, capabilities, or instruments of national power, among allies and partners, and across geographies—emphasizing the latter two elements. The study was contextualized to a three-peer deterrence problem, for which we explored three aspects: signaling, challenges and opportunities, and resources required for effective deterrence.

Twenty-two experts were interviewed for this study under the Chatham House Rule. Participants represented the perspectives of 13 countries and subject matter expertise on Russia, China, and hybrid threats. A participant summary can be found in the tables to the right. Country experts were drawn from four categories: 1) retired generals or admirals at think tanks or individual countries’ war colleges, 2) current military officers (US equivalent O-6 and above), 3) country subject matter experts, including non-government experts, and 4) National Liaison Officers. Interviews were conducted in two rounds to enable the team to gather initial insights, determine topics for further exploration, identify any gaps in knowledge or understanding, and allow for question refinement based on initial findings and USEUCOM feedback.

Desk research was conducted to provide a basis for study and question development, guide study interviews, and inform analysis. Analysis was conducted on over 250 pages of interview transcripts to develop an appropriate framework in which to organize and contextualize the experts’ rich and wide-ranging insights. While experts’ opinions varied, this variation typically reflected nuance along a conceptual spectrum rather than opposing schools of thought. There was a great deal of convergence across the experts’ inputs, not only within this study but also coherent with study findings from other LOEs in the broader SDF project. The current analysis yielded seven key themes, the content of which reflect the experts’ insights and recommendations and are elaborated below. For clarity of presentation, the experts’ ideas are stated in a straightforward, declarative way (i.e., most sentences will not begin with “the experts indicated…”); all assertions not otherwise cited thus represent the study experts’ statements and suggestions rather than the present author’s. Themes 1-3 broadly capture the necessary prerequisites for effective integrated deterrence, while themes 4-6 focus on execution, and the central focus of theme 7 is forward-looking. There are significant connections across themes.

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