Future Scenarios for Sino-Russian Military Cooperation Possibilities, Limitations, and Consequences

Speakers: Mark Cozad, Cooper Cortez III, and David Woodworth (RAND)

Date: 12 September 2024

Speaker Session Summary

The level of integration and cooperation between China and Russia in the event of a significant military conflict is often speculated upon, particularly given the rising political tensions in the Korean Peninsula and the South China Sea. A group of researchers from RAND addressed this question by examining historical case studies and analyzing current Sino-Russian activities and tendencies. The researchers noted that their findings are subject to change, especially as the war in Ukraine continues to unfold. Historically, the relationship between Russia and China dates back to the Cold War, when the Soviet Union utilized Chinese forces to support North Korea during the Korean War. Despite utilizing Chinese soldiers, Russian military and political leaders operated with little transparency between them and their Chinese partners. The researchers suggested that similar distrust likely persists in their current relationship, despite both countries’ leadership acknowledging the strategic importance of the Sino-Russian partnership.

The research explored three scenarios involving potential conflict: around Japan, the Korean Peninsula, and Iran. These scenarios allowed the team to develop a framework for assessing Sino-Russian cooperation and interoperability. In the Japan and Korean Peninsula scenarios, China takes a leading role, with Russia acting as a junior partner. In contrast, the Iranian scenario illustrated how China and Russia might rely on proxies to compete with Western powers, rather than engage directly. The researchers highlighted that, while China and Russia are expected to coordinate during periods of escalation, their divergent interests—such as differing relationships with India—could limit the extent of their cooperation. The researchers concluded by emphasizing that, although Chinese and Russian leadership place significant strategic importance on their relationship, historical mistrust and a lack of transparency would likely hinder their ability to effectively coordinate military efforts in a major military operation.

To read more analysis from the RAND team, check out their report, “Future Scenarios for Sino-Russian Military Cooperation.”

Speaker Session Recording

Briefing Materials

Biographies:

Mark Cozad is a senior researcher in RAND’s Washington, D.C. office, a Professor at the RAND Pardee Graduate School, and the portfolio lead for the RAND National Security Research Division’s International and Alliance work. Prior to joining RAND, Mark was a senior executive in the U.S. intelligence community serving as the Defense Intelligence Officer for East Asia and as the Deputy Director of the President’s Daily Brief Staff in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. His research interests include military modernization, concept development, strategic competition, strategic and operational planning, defense mobilization, deterrence, strategic warning, and deception. His recent publications include studies examining Chinese views of the military balance with the United States and how recent experience is shaping the way the U.S. and Chinese militaries are training and preparing for major power conflict. He has forthcoming studies Russia’s military reconstitution and China’s views on deterrence.

Cortez A. Cooper III joined RAND in April 2009, providing assessments of security challenges for a broad range of U.S. government clients. Prior to joining RAND, Mr. Cooper was the Director of the East Asia Studies Center for Hicks and Associates, Inc; and was a Senior Analyst with CENTRA Technology, Inc., specializing in Asia-Pacific political-military affairs. He has also served in the U.S. Navy Executive Service as the Senior Analyst for the Joint Intelligence Center Pacific, U.S. Pacific Command. Mr. Cooper’s 20 years of military service included assignments as both an Army Signal Corps Officer and a China Foreign Area Officer. In addition to numerous military decorations, the Secretary of Defense awarded Mr. Cooper with the Exceptional Civilian Service Award in 2001.

David Woodworth is an associate international and defense research analyst at the RAND where he studies Russian military theory, defense, cyber and space policy. He is also an adjunct Professorial Lecturer in Law at George Washington University Law School where he co-teaches a course in aviation and national security law. Woodworth joined RAND after retiring from the Air National Guard with the rank of colonel, where he was an Air Force Eurasia Regional Area Strategist with extensive experience in strategic and operational planning, defense policy, and adversary decision-making. Woodworth has served as a United Nations Military Observer, Strategic Planner at U.S. European Command and the National Guard Bureau, Chief of Research at the Russia Strategic Initiative and as an Associate Professor of Strategic Studies at the School for Advanced Air and Space Studies. A Command Pilot with over 5500 hours in the C-130, Woodworth served in the Maryland and Puerto Rico Air National Guard as an aircraft commander, instructor/evaluator pilot and squadron commander. He holds a B.A. in History and Russian from the University of Pennsylvania, an M.A. in Russian Area Studies from Georgetown University, and a J.D. and LL.M. in National Security and Cybersecurity Law from George Washington University Law School. Woodworth is also a graduate of the Marine Corps Command and Staff College, Air War College (Grand Strategy Program) and the National Defense University’s College of Information and Cyberspace.