China’s Options for Taiwan Short of an Invasion

Speakers: Dr. Bonny Lin, Dr. Matthew Funaiole, & Brian Hart (China Power Project, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS))

Date: 30 October 2024

Speaker Session Summary

A blockade, by contrast, would be significantly more restrictive and kinetic, and would be led by the military. In another difference from a quarantine, there is doctrinal evidence that the People’s Liberation Army has long been planning for this kind of operation. In a more kinetic scenario, a blockade could involve heavy conventional strikes on Taiwan’s military bases, ports, and energy infrastructure, as well as laying offshore mines to limit entry and exit into Taiwan’s ports. Whereas a quarantine would be more demonstrative and aimed at punishing Taiwan, a blockade would likely aim to force Taiwan into negotiations on unification or to compel outright capitulation. However, Mr. Hart acknowledged that a blockade alone might not suffice to achieve those goals, and that Beijing may ultimately have to invade Taiwan to force its unification.

Dr. Funaiole discussed the potential economic impact of disruptions to maritime traffic through the Taiwan Strait. He shared new data analysis from CSIS, which estimates that $2.5 trillion worth of trade flows through the strait annually, amounting to over 20 percent of global maritime shipping. He notes that China relies particularly heavily on the strait for intra-Chinese shipments, moving goods between China’s southern and northern ports. Dr. Funaiole noted that the Taiwan Strait is also vital for many countries in the Global South—especially some in Africa—and that BRICS countries are roughly twice as reliant on the strait as G7 countries. Given the Taiwan Strait’s importance to global commerce, Chinese actions that disrupt shipping there would likely result in global logistical and economic challenges. 

Speaker Session Recording

Also forthcoming!

Briefing Materials

Report: https://features.csis.org/chinapower/china-taiwan-strait-trade

Biographies:

Dr. Bonny Lin is a senior fellow for Asian security and director of the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Previously, she was the acting associate director of the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE and a political scientist at the RAND Corporation, where she analyzed different aspects of China’s foreign and defense policy and U.S. competition with China, including China’s use of gray zone tactics against U.S. allies and partners. Her research advised senior leaders in the Department of Defense, including military leaders at U.S. Pacific Air Forces and U.S. Army Pacific. Dr. Lin also served in the Office of the Secretary of Defense from 2015 to 2018, where she was director for Taiwan, country director for China, and senior adviser for China. Dr. Lin has testified in front of the Senate Armed Services Committee, House Foreign Affairs Committee, and the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission. She is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and an adjunct at the RAND Corporation and Institute for Defense Analysis (IDA). Dr. Lin holds a PhD in political science from Yale University, a master’s degree in Asian studies with a focus on China from the University of Michigan, and a bachelor’s degree in government from Harvard College.

Dr. Matthew P. Funaiole is vice president of iDeas Lab, Andreas C. Dracopoulos Chair in Innovation and senior fellow of China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). He specializes in using data-driven research to unpack complex policy issues, specifically those related to Chinese foreign and security policy, cross-Strait relations, and maritime trade. From late 2015 through mid-2020, he was the principal researcher for the ChinaPower website. Prior to joining CSIS, Dr. Funaiole taught international relations and foreign policy analysis at the University of Saint Andrews in Scotland, where he also completed his doctoral research. Dr. Funaiole is also engaged in several creative writing projects, and he is an avid photography enthusiast.

Brian Hart is a fellow with the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). He also helps to lead Hidden Reach, a CSIS special initiative that shines light on underappreciated sources of China’s influence through open-source data and satellite imagery. Brian’s research focuses primarily on Chinese foreign and security policy, Chinese military modernization, U.S.-China relations, and Taiwan security issues. Prior to joining the China Power Project, he conducted research for the Project 2049 Institute, the Freeman Chair in China Studies at CSIS, and Trivium China. Brian earned his MA with honors in China studies and international economics from the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), and he received a graduate certificate in China studies from the SAIS Hopkins-Nanjing Center. He also received a BA with honors in politics and international affairs from Wake Forest University, where he graduated magna cum laude.