NATO Strategic Foresight Analysis, Drivers of a Pervasive Competition

Speaker: Dr. Gergely Németh (NATO Supreme Allied Command Transformation)

Date: 14 February 2024

Speaker Session Summary

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Gergely Németh (NATO Supreme Allied Command Transformation) as part of its SMA “Strategic Deterrence Frameworks” (SDF) Speaker Series.

NATO Allied Command Transformation (ACT) recently released its Strategic Foresight Analysis 2023 report. This analysis, developed through a collaborative effort involving 10 workshops and engagement with 800 experts from allied and partner nations, represents a comprehensive reevaluation of the strategic landscape. Dr. Nemeth, in discussing the findings, advocated for a shift in focus from mere long-term projections—which can be numerous and diverse—to a deeper examination of the underlying drivers of change. This approach becomes increasingly pertinent as the frequency and impact of strategic shocks, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, continue to rise. 

The research identified 170 global trends and categorized into seven distinct categories: geoeconomics, human networks, resource scarcity, emerging and disruptive technologies, scramble for the global commons, climate breakdown, and a transitioning international order. The analysis also delineated two primary pathways for assessing the trajectory of change: pervasive competition and global cooperation. Dr. Nemeth underscored the importance of upholding the existing rules-based international order, which serves as a bulwark against the escalation of rivalries and conflicts among states, including NATO allies and partners. By maintaining this international order, the likelihood of conflicts stemming from competition and rivalries can be mitigated, fostering stability and cooperation on the global stage. 

Speaker Session Recording

Briefing Materials

Biography:

Dr. Gergely Németh is an expert and leader in the field of defense policy, planning and analysis. He currently serves as the Head of Strategic Foresight at the NATO Supreme Allied Command Transformation in Norfolk, Virginia. Prior to joining Strategic Foresight with a view to revitalize it, Dr. Gergely Nemeth served as Director for Defense Policy at the Hungarian Ministry of Defense. In this position he directed international relations, policy and planning for the HUN MOD as well as the development of the most recent Hungarian National Military Strategy (2021) and Hungarian National Security Strategy (2020). Dr. Nemeth also served as Deputy to the National Armament Director, where he directed international affairs, G2G and G2B relations. Before his assignment to senior positions he fulfilled duties at the NATO HQ in Brussels (DPPC) as Deputy Defence Counsellor, senior defense planning expert at the Defense Planning HUN MOD and also served four years as analyst at J5 Hungarian General Staff. He started his career as OSINT analyst for the Hungarian Military Intelligence. Dr. Nemeth holds a PhD in War Studies.

This speaker session supported SMA’s Strategic Deterrence Frameworks (SDF) project. For additional speaker sessions and project publications, please visit the SDF project page.