All Publications & Speaker Series
Below you'll find all publications tagged with the selected "National Security Topic." To jump between SMA Publications, SMA Speaker Series, and Other Publications libraries, use the "Jump to Results" bar.
Arctic Strategic Tumult and Technological Resilience
Speaker Session Summary Forthcoming!
July 1, 2025
Gregory Falco and Caroline Kennedy-Pipe
Emerging Strategic & Geopolitical Challenges: Operational Implications for US Combatant Commands
SMA hosted a panel with Mr. Michael A. Clark (Director for Acquisition and Technology (J9), USCYBERCOM), Ms. Kayse Jansen (Branch Chief, Deterrence Analysis and Outreach, Plans and Policy Directorate, USSTRATCOM/J5), Mr. James “JJ” Jenista (Air Force Civilian, Joint Training, Exercise, and Wargaming Directorate (J7), USNORTHCOM & NORAD), Mr. Robert C. Jones (Senior Strategist, USSOCOM J5-JSOU Donovan Integration Group), Mr. Jimmy Krakar (Academic Coordinator, USEUCOM), Ms. Lesley Kucharski (Analyst, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory), Dr. Robert M. Toguchi (Chief, Concepts Division, Force Modernization Directorate (FMD), USASOC), Col David W. Walker (Policy Division Chief, USCENTCOM CCJ5), and Ms. Michele K. Wolfe (Senior Operations Research Analyst, USAFRICOM) as part of its SMA General Speaker Series.
January 25, 2023
Clark, M. (Director for Acquisition and Technology (J9), USCYBERCOM); Jansen, K. (Branch Chief, Deterrence Analysis and Outreach, Plans and Policy Directorate, USSTRATCOM/J5); Jenista, J. (Air Force Civilian, Joint Training, Exercise, and Wargaming Directorate (J7), USNORTHCOM & NORAD); Jones, R. (Senior Strategist, USSOCOM J5-JSOU Donovan Integration Group); Krakar, J. (Academic Coordinator, USEUCOM); Kucharski, L. (Analyst, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory); Toguchi, R. (Chief, Concepts Division, Force Modernization Directorate (FMD), USASOC); Walker, D. (Policy Division Chief, USCENTCOM CCJ5); Wolfe, M. (Senior Operations Research Analyst, USAFRICOM)
Deterrence Among Three to Twelve Nuclear Powers: Fundamental Instability and Mitigation Strategy
The fundamental instability of bilateral nuclear deterrence (Albert Wohlstetter’s “delicate balance of terror”) is mitigated, in part, by each adversary deploying and maintaining weapons systems that are capable of guaranteeing a second-strike after an adversary has launched a first-strike.
June 27, 2024
Dr. Claudio Cioffi-Revilla (George Mason University)
Cognitive Competition, Conflict, and War: An Ontological Approach
Robert “Jake” Bebber is an officer in the United States Navy. He has served at various locations throughout his career, including Afghanistan, Fort Meade, US 7th Fleet staff, Carrier Strike Group 12, Information Warfare Training Command-Corry Station, and US Special Operations Command.
May 6, 2025
Dr. Robert “Jake” Bebber (US Navy)
Russia's Military After Ukraine: Potential Pathways for the Postwar Reconstitution of the Russian Armed Forces
The ongoing war in Ukraine is testing Russia’s armed forces in ways they have not experienced in decades.
May 1, 2025
Speakers: Dr. Michelle Grisé, Dr. Krystyna Marcinek, Anna Dowd, and David Woodworth (RAND)
The Remilitarization of the Arctic
The Arctic, considered a space of geopolitical cooperation following the Cold War, is increasingly becoming a region of strategic rivalry among Russia, China, and other Arctic states.
April 16, 2025
Speaker: Dr. James Patton Rogers (Brooks Tech Policy Institute, Cornell University)
Ecological Security: Military or Civil Duty?
Ecological security will likely be one of the defining security issues of the 21st century. Mr. Lewis emphasized that the world is in a race between the harmful effects of global climate change and the delayed but necessary efforts in mitigation, adaptation, and regeneration.
February 12, 2025
Thammy Evans and Gary Lewis
The Philippines, Beijing’s Bullying, and a Forgotten Struggle for Peace
Speaker: Dr. Haroro Ingram (United States Institute of Peace (USIP)).
February 21, 2025
Dr. Haroro J. Ingram
Back to the Drafting Board: U.S. Draft Mobilization Capability for Modern Operational Requirements
The US all-volunteer force (AVF) may prove insufficient in the event of a conflict with China, potentially requiring the United States to reinstate the draft for the first time in over 50 years.
March 5, 2025
Katherine L. Kuzminski and Taren Sylvester
Understanding and Countering China's Maritime Gray Zone Operations
China is seeking to assert control over and advance its interests in large portions of Southeast Asia and the South China Sea (SCS).
January 30, 2025
Dr. Todd Helmus and Dr. Krista Romita Grocholski
Strategic Culture - A Complex Model for a Complex Concept
In recent years, strategic culture has regained attention as US policymakers work to integrate deterrence strategies with allies and partners while understanding the strategic cultures of adversaries, like China and Russia.
November 19, 2024
Dr. Lawrence A. Kuznar
American Statecraft and the Challenge of Emerging Powers
The United States has primarily focused on China’s geopolitical rise over the past two decades and the implications of a near-peer competitor to US interests.
October 23, 2024
Dr. Chris Chivvis and Beatrix Geaghan-Breiner
China’s Options for Taiwan Short of an Invasion
A blockade, by contrast, would be significantly more restrictive and kinetic, and would be led by the military. In another difference from a quarantine, there is doctrinal evidence that the People’s Liberation Army has long been planning for this kind of operation.
October 30, 2024
Dr. Bonny Lin, Dr. Matthew P. Funaiole, and Brian Hart
Ukrainian Resistance to Russian Disinformation: Lessons for Future Conflict
A key element of Ukrainian resistance to the Russian invasion has been its ability to counter Russian disinformation. In their recent report for RAND, Dr. Helmus and Dr. Holynska discuss Ukraine’s approach to combating disinformation and the lessons that the United States and NATO can draw from this effort.
September 19, 2024
Todd Helmus and Khrystyna Holynska
Future Scenarios for Sino-Russian Military Cooperation Possibilities, Limitations, and Consequences
The level of integration and cooperation between China and Russia in the event of a significant military conflict is often speculated upon, particularly given the rising political tensions in the Korean Peninsula and the South China Sea.
September 12, 2024
Mark Cozad, Cortez A. Cooper III, and David Woodworth
Emerging Military Technologies: Putting Policy Before Profit
There is growing concern among some scholars that the pursuit of economic incentives may push US military technology advancements ahead of the establishment of proper policies and security measures, prioritizing profits over policy.
September 25, 2024
William D. Hartung and Dr. Michael Brenes
Public Support for Self-Defence in Taiwan: The Current State of Research
Chinese President Xi Jinping has indicated that an invasion of Taiwan by 2027 is a distinct possibility, if not imminent. The concern of a Chinese invasion from the international community intensified following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
August 14, 2024
Dr. Yao-Yuan Yeh, Dr. Fang-Yu Chen, and Dr. Charles Wu
Critical Minerals Geopolitics and Security
Minerals are crucial components of advanced weapons systems, playing a pivotal role in military capability and power projection. They are increasingly integrated into new attack platforms, including Virginia-class attack submarines and long-range missiles.
May 16, 2024
Morgan Bazilian and Gregory Wischer
A Hotter and Drier Future Ahead - An Assessment of Climate Change in U.S. Central Command
Climate-related stressors present significant risks to future stability in countries worldwide, affecting all US Combatant Commands.
May 9, 2024
Dr. Michelle Miro, Dr. Flannery C. Dolan, Karen M. Sudkamp, and Jeffrey Martini
Responses Against China's Coercion in the Indo-Pacific: Developing a Toolkit from the Philippines and Taiwan
China has escalated its aggressive and coercive tactics against smaller and less powerful states as part of its objective to become a regional hegemony.
April 24, 2024
Thomas J. Shattuck and Robin Michael U. Garcia
The Qualities that Make Nations Competitive: Chinese and Russian Views
A significant portion of the current literature exploring Great Power Competition (GPC) among the United States, China, and Russia predominantly reflects a Western perspective.
April 23, 2024
Timothy R. Heath, Michael J. Mazarr, and Clint Reach
Building Solutions to Post-conflict Stabilization
The optimal outcome of any military conflict is a lasting peace in the post-war period. Professor Heuser discusses insights from historical and ongoing conflicts that shed light on the factors influencing the establishment of enduring peace.
March 6, 2024
Dr. Beatrice Heuser
Extended Deterrence Across the Continuum of Conflict
Since the end of the Cold War, US extended deterrence has undergone significant evolution, initially appearing to diminish in importance with the perceived decrease in the need for a robust nuclear arsenal following the collapse of the Soviet Union.
February 20, 2024
Dr. Maximilian Hoell
China's Three Roads to Controlling Taiwan
The increasing political and military tensions between China and Taiwan are frequently discussed in Western media. During these discussions, politicians and pundits point out Taiwan’s strategic importance to the US and China, including US and Chinese strategic options. Mr. Kagan and Mr. Blumenthal discuss these topics and more in their new article “China’s Three Roads to Controlling Taiwan.” Mr. Kagan emphasized that while influencing Taiwan’s future is an important objective for both the US and China, it is not the most important objective for either country in the Asia Pacific region. A more important short-term objective for China is weakening anti-Chinese coalitions and alliances in the region. Furthermore, Chinese president, Xi Jinping, believes that there is plenty of time for China to achieve its objective of reunifying all of what he deems China by the goal date, 2049.
September 27, 2023
Dr. Dan Blumenthal (AEI) & Frederick W. Kagan (AEI); Jack Gaines, Moderator (One CA Podcast)
Spheres of Influence in the Coming Decades: Four Alternative Scenarios
There has been much speculation regarding how the future great power competition between the US and China will affect the level of their global influence. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, which was designed to restore Russia’s geopolitical power, inspired the research group from the Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures to try and predict future pathways for global political influence. The group has created the FBIC Index with the International Futures (IFs), identifying four main pathways for the evolution of actors’ political influence. These pathways are a) Great Power Competition, b) The Doldrums (a global recession), c) Western Resurgence, and d) Pariah State (Russia’s near complete isolation from the global system). The presenters emphasized that while the pathways identified by the IFs are the most likely, the future is highly unpredictable and deviations to any of the forementioned pathways are probable.
July 11, 2023
Dr. Mathew Burrows (Stimson Center), Collin Meisel (Stimson Center), Caleb Petry (Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures), and Dr. Jonathan Moyer (Josef Korbel School of International Studies; Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures)
Escalation Management in International Conflict: The United States and its Adversaries
SMA hosted a speaker session with Ms. Egle Murauskaite (ICONS Project, University of Maryland) and Mr. Devin H. Ellis (Applied Research Laboratory for Intelligence and Security (ARLIS), University of Maryland) as part of its SMA “Strategic Deterrence Frameworks” (SDF) Speaker Series.Great power competition between democratic and autocratic states has been increasing in prevalence and intensity during recent years. As competition between nations with highly capable militaries—like the US and China—increases, academic researchers and decision makers are focusing on how crisis escalation can be avoided. Ms. Murauskaite and Mr. Ellis address this research question in their recent book, “Escalation Management in International Crises: The United States and its Adversaries.” Mr. Ellis commented that much more than traditional research went into the writing of this book. The team also performed modeling efforts, conducted tabletop games, and collaborated with other researchers to create a table of escalation. This table provides a wide array of activities that either lead to escalation or de-escalation of crisis among states. The identified activities are numerous, including many tools and activities in the gray zone.
April 25, 2023
Egle Murauskaite (ICONS Project, University of Maryland), and Devin H. Ellis (Applied Research Laboratory for Intelligence and Security (ARLIS), University of Maryland)
Outcompeting China in Space: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Integrated Deterrence
SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. John “Patsy” Klein (Falcon Research, Inc.; George Washington University’s Space Policy Institute) and Mr. Dean Cheng (Potomac Institute for Policy Studies; Users Advisory Group of the National Space Council) as part of its SMA “Strategic Deterrence Frameworks” (SDF) Speaker Series.The US and China are locked in a grand geopolitical competition that includes continuous use of deterrence against each other. Mr. Cheng emphasized that China and the US conceptualize deterrence very differently. The US primarily conceives of deterrence as a dissuasive tool used to preemptively stop an adversary’s aggression, while the primary Chinese conceptualization of deterrence, wēi-shè, also includes coercion. China approaches wēi-shè holistically, using many different leverages of national power, such as economic deals. Sometimes, the US is unprepared to deter adversaries because it prepares to deter actors that mirror itself, commented Dr. Klein.
February 28, 2023
Dean Cheng, (Senior Fellow, Potomac Institute for Policy Studies; Senior Adviser, United States Institute of Peace); and Dr. John Klein (Senior Fellow and Strategist, Falcon Research, Inc.)
Sino-Russian Relations: Articulating a World Order
China and Russia are frequently considered to have an alliance against the West; however, their actual relationship is one of convenience. China and Russia’s friendship has only been in place for a short time. Historically, the two countries have been rivals, disputing over territories and boundaries. The intensity of these disputes has weakened since the mid-1990s, however, due to the nations’ new political relationship. Their present-day partnership is based on the desire for a multi-polar world that weakens the US’ status as a superpower. However, their vision differs on how this multi-polar world order is comprised. The difference between China’s and Russia’s world view is the role that each other’s political rivals, other than the US, would play.
March 1, 2023
Garcia, Z. (Associate Professor of Security Studies, Department of National Security and Strategy, US Army War College); Modlin, K. (Instructor, Western Kentucky University)
The Quantified Warrior: Monitoring the Physiology of the Human for War
Technologies that connect to a warfighter at a cognitive and physiological level collect valuable data, giving military leaders insights on their soldiers’ fighting readiness. A better understanding of the warfighters’ readiness will give these leaders an inherent strategic advantage over their adversaries. The most effective use of these technologies will be collecting data on physical traits of warfighters that can be placed into an already existent scientific model. Some of these measurable traits are sleeping patterns—which can indicate a warfighter’s readiness—or the likeliness of falls and strokes, commented Dr. Huberdeau. Traits that are hidden in the warfighters’ cognition will be much harder to quantify and map out.
February 16, 2023
Major General Mick Ryan (Recently Retired Major General, Australian Army; Principal, Mick Ryan Solutions); Dr. William D. Casebeer (Director, Riverside Research); and Dr. David Huberdeau (AI/ML Engineer & Principal Investigator, Riverside Research Institute)
The Belt and Road Initiative at 10 Years Old and the Future of China-Africa Relations
China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has two avenues of focus—its land route, which connects China to Western Europe, and its maritime silk road, which traverses the Indo-Pacific and the eastern coast of Africa. China’s total foreign direct investment (FDI) associated with the BRI totals $1 trillion USD globally, and the value of China’s BRI investments in Africa currently makes it the largest single-state investor on the continent. However, it is worth noting that China’s global FDI has shrunk dramatically since it peaked in 2016. Its shrinking FDI is sometimes blamed on the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic; however, this trend predates the beginning of the pandemic, Dr. Benbdallah explained. These spending trends are occurring in Africa as well, even though most African countries officially joined the BRI during 2018 and 2019—after China began slowing down its FDI.The
March 22, 2023
Dr. Lina Benabdallah (Assistant Professor of Politics and International Affairs, Wake Forest University)
US-China Technological "Decoupling": Strategy, Policy, and Military Implications
The techno-globalist world that we once lived in is now being pulled back. What we are witnessing is not a technological divorce, but rather a reduction in the technological interdependence between the US and China. There are two primary ways in which the US government has reduced its technological interdependence with China. One method is the use of defensive controls (e.g., export controls, visa limits, investment screenings), and the other is the use of offensive controls (e.g., Chips Act, Inflation Reduction Act). In 2022, the US government has taken much more of an offensive approach than ever before. Traditional defensive tools used by the US have also been greatly intensified and implemented in new ways against China, and a series of new defensive tools have been developed as well.
December 20, 2022
Jon Bateman (Senior Fellow, Technology and International Affairs Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)
The 2022 NDS in Its Historical and Strategic Big Picture: Expert Q&A
The 2022 release of the US National Defense Strategy (NDS) gives an in-depth look into the prioritization of US national security concerns and capabilities. Dr. Posen argued that it is where the military meets politics. He wishes that the NDS was more descriptive in some areas, including who the US’s partners and allies are and clearer definitions of deterrence by punishment and denial. The initial statements in the new NDS emphasize the need for prioritizing operations, threats, and resource allocation. However, Dr. Posen believes that the paper loses its focus on prioritization quickly. This prioritization needed to be further emphasized because the document discusses the importance of assisting US allies and partners with the resources they need for deterrence.
December 15, 2022
Dr. Barry Posen (Ford International Professor of Political Science, MIT; Director Emeritus, Security Studies Program, MIT); and Prof. Christopher Coker (Director, London School of Economics [LSE] IDEAS)
Threat Inflation and the Taiwan Issue: The Need for an Active Denial Strategy, Plus Assurances
The US faces many tough dilemmas on how to build military deterrence measures against China in the Asia-Pacific, protect Taiwan’s sovereignty, and not place Japan or other allies in politically compromising positions. Dr. Swaine commented that building deterrence through overall US military capabilities and the individual armed forces is a multi-faceted issue, involving both military deterrence and credible reassurance measures to avoid inadvertent conflict. Three ideal types of military deterrence approaches identified were: a) punishment, b) control, and c) denial. Dr. Heginbotham mentioned that the DoD’s military strategy has been slowly and consistently shifting toward active denial, but that more remains to be done. Active denial relies on phased operations and divisions of labor with allies among other principles. Effectively utilizing active denial’s principles will include some restructuring and aligning of the armed forces.
November 10, 2022
Swaine, M. (East Asia Program, Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft); Heginbotham, E. (Center for International Studies, MIT)
