The Myanmar Army’s Assault on Democracy and China’s Strategic Interests in Southeast Asia

Speaker(s): Tower, J. (United States Institute of Peace [USIP])

Date: 19 May 2022

Speaker Session Summary

SMA hosted a speaker session with Mr. Jason Tower (United States Institute of Peace [USIP]) as part of its SMA INDOPACOM Series.

The ongoing conflict between Myanmar’s military and the People’s Defense Forces (PDF) is creating political disruption throughout the Indo-Pacific region. Furthermore, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is shifting the global focus from Myanmar to Eastern Europe; making it easier for Myanmar’s military to commit violent acts against civilians. Some analysts believe the conflict in Myanmar is a stalemate; however, Mr. Tower argued that the PDF and other ethnic forces are gaining ground. He also commented that the civilian population in Myanmar does not view the current military regime as a legitimate government, because Myanmar’s economy is collapsing, and basic governing services are unavailable. PDF forces are achieving some victories; however, Myanmar’s military regime is escalating the violence of their tactics. Myanmar’s military regime is now bombing civilians in contested areas and equipping paramilitary forces to hunt former National League for Democracy (NLD) party members and their families.

National opinions and reactions to the 2021 coup and subsequent conflict are mixed. China—who at first refused to acknowledge a coup occurred—is trying to maintain good relations with Myanmar’s military regime and civilians to ensure that it can pursue old and new economic initiatives the country. Russia—which openly backed Myanmar’s military—cannot give the same amount of support because of its ongoing war with Ukraine. India—which is politically supportive of the remaining NLD—is also fostering political relations with Myanmar’s military to counter China’s growing influence in the country. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is mostly supportive of the democratically elected NLD; however, Cambodia and several other states support Myanmar’s military regime. Mr. Tower commented that the US can pursue opportunities to support countries that support the remnants of the NLD and increase conversations with India and Thailand to expose transnational Chinese organized crime, which helps finance the Myanmar military.

For a visual that coincides with this brief, and for background, please visit https://www.usip.org/sites/default/files/2022-04/myanmar-study-group-final-report.pdf