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Sabrina (Pagano) Polansky

Principal Research Scientist
Dr. Sabrina (Pagano) Polansky is a Principal Research Scientist at NSI, Inc. As a project leader and research scientist with extensive experience both in industry and academia, Sabrina’s work has spanned a wide variety of topics and multidisciplinary projects. At NSI, her work has included a) model and framework development and application; b) leading a team as the principal investigator and project manager for a multi-year, multi-method project investigating progress toward stability in a conflict environment; c) overseeing a data science team and providing social science-driven recommendations for two large gaming industry clients; d) leading and conducting analysis for Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) efforts supporting US Combatant Commands and Services; and e) providing thought leadership as one of two developers for a corporate offering focused on enhancing dignity in interactions with customers and employees. Prior to NSI, Sabrina served as the Director (acting) of a growing behavioral sciences program and as a Faculty Fellow Researcher and Lecturer in the Department of Psychology at the University of California, Los Angeles. Her training and initial research provided depth in topics including intergroup relations, basic and moral emotions (e.g., empathy, moral outrage), and antisocial/prosocial behavior, while her experience on multidisciplinary teams and projects has enabled her to add significant breadth to her knowledge base. She earned her PhD in Social Psychology (Minor in Statistics) from UCLA and a dual BA with highest honors in Psychology and Political Science from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

SMA Publications

SMA Publication

Syria Da'esh Insurgency

The contributors varied in their discussions of what a Da’esh transition—or the future of Syria more broadly—would look like. Drawing on work by Gelvin, Pagano suggests that three scenarios are most likely for Da’esh’s transition in Syria. These include the complete destruction and disappearance of the group and its ideology; transition into an insurgent group capable of conducting limited operations in Syria and/or inspiring attacks abroad; or disintegration into a loose collection of former fighters and free agents conducting attacks, in some cases without organizational support. Finally, University of Oklahoma ME expert, Dr. Joshua Landis, indicated that while it is difficult to generalize, the extreme factionalization that characterized Syria prior to Da’esh’s involvement would likely come back into play. As such, we may expect a revived emphasis on the clan or tribe, with ongoing resistance to central government. Landis continued by suggesting that sufficient weakening of Da’esh will eventually enable the Syrian government led by Assad to regain broad control.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Chinese Strategic Intentions: A Deep Dive into China’s Worldwide Activities

This white paper was prepared as part of the Strategic Multilayer Assessment, entitled The Future of Global Competition and Conflict. Twenty-seven experts contributed to this white paper, providing wide-ranging assessments of China’s domestic and international activities in order to assess the future of China and the challenges that these activities may present to US interests. This white paper is divided into five sections and twenty-four chapters. While this summary presents some of the white paper’s high-level findings, the summary alone cannot fully convey the fine detail of the experts’ individual contributions, which are worth reading in their entirety.
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

Promoting Greater Stability in Post-ISIL Iraq, Volume 2

United States Central Command (CENTCOM) posed the following question to the Strategic Multi-layer Assessment (SMA) virtual reach back cell: What opportunities are there for USCENTCOM to shape a post-ISIL Iraq and regional security environment, promoting greater stability? To address this question, in volume 1, we examine the drivers of legitimacy, security, and social accord for key Iraqi stakeholders. In the current volume 2, we provide an in-depth and comprehensive discussion of the key social elements and dynamics contributing to social accord, and tie the social domain to the political domain in Iraq, with accompanying implications for stability.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Promoting greater stability in post-ISIL Iraq, Volume 1

United States Central Command (CENTCOM) posed the following question to the Strategic Multi-layer Assessment (SMA) virtual reach back cell: What opportunities are there for USCENTCOM to shape a post-ISIL Iraq and regional security environment, promoting greater stability? Analyses of the security challenges facing post-ISIL Iraq frequently emphasize two central points. The first of these is that any security solution must address the political concerns and goals of key actors. This report is focused on providing insight into not only security factors, but also those political and social factors that have follow-on effects for the security domain. The second point is that both political interests and security interests are highly localized. We acknowledge the tremendous variation in interest groups within the social and political landscape in Iraq. At the same time, social science methodologies are oriented around making sense of such fragmentation, by looking for commonalities within and across societies. While no generalization will ever cover every possible case or variation, the common themes that are derived will represent likely scenarios. Toward this goal, we focus here on the broad ethno-sectarian divisions that are often currently in use in Iraq: Sunni, Shia, and Kurd. Where possible, we seek to specify relevant subgroups (e.g., Shia-led militia, Peshmerga, Sunni tribal elites). While we recognize that there is variation both within and even entirely outside of these groups, the discussion and insights here capture the interests and grievances of a wide segment of the Iraqi population as a whole.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Competition Short of Armed Conflict with a Regional Power

The experts drew on a wide range of examples from US conflicts and moved beyond a focus solely on competition short of armed conflict (CSAC or “gray zone”) to other strategies or forms of competition executed by the US. The examples offered rich source material from which to extract lessons applicable to current US- Iran relations. Lessons might be learned from relations with Iran itself beginning with the Revolution to the present; the US-Soviet Cold War; the US and North Korea (1953-present); the US and Great Britain during the 19th Century, when the US was a rising regional power and Britain was a global power; the US and China during the Taiwan Straits Crisis (1954-55); US-Cuba (1959-now); the US and Venezuela (1998-present); Central America in the 1980s; and conflict in the Balkans (1991-2000). At the most basic level, these conflicts were battles over regional security or global influence (US vs. Iran, North Korea, Venezuela, Great Britain, or USSR) or ideology/ideological influence (US vs. Iran, USSR, North Korea, China, Cuba, Central America, or the Balkans). By and large, the most relevant examples were those from the post WWII period.
Year Published:
2018
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SMA Publication

Is US Success Contingent on Dominance in Every Domain

Contributors were varied in their responses, with approximately half of the subject matter experts replying to this question with a variation of “it depends.” In other words, campaign success in a multi- domain conflict (MDC) is not solely a question of US need to dominate in all domains (or not), but instead is contingent on contextual factors that are likely to vary from one conflict to the next. Broadly, these can be grouped into the following categories, which can be examined individually or in concert: a) aspects of the conflict, b) aspects of the adversary, and c) aspects of the domain (Berkowitz; Cheng; Harris Corporation; Hitchens; Karpiscak; Steer). Figure 1 presents a set of guiding questions derived from contributor inputs, which address these categories and demonstrate the range of considerations when engaging in a multi-domain conflict.
Year Published:
2018
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SMA Publication

(Outer) Space: An Exploration of Definitional Issues

Operationalizing or defining terms is an important first step to understanding concepts, including their boundaries and how they are distinguished from other, potentially related ideas. Similarly, clarity in communication is an essential condition for ensuring that the message or information that is transmitted is as close as possible to what is received. Within the DOD, definitions matter because they are a necessary component for the establishment and application of doctrine. Given the breadth of the space field as a whole, establishing precise definitions may become an even more pressing task, as coordination is sought over a broad base of space sub-communities (e.g., national security space, civil space, and commercial). Each field as a whole and each sub-domain within it naturally has its own terminology, which tends to evolve over time. To best advance coordination within and across the various US and allied space communities, we must be capable of fruitfully combining the work that is being done in various commands, DOD offices, and other agencies and organizations. This can be best achieved when we identify those terms for which precise definitions are required in order to move forward. Doing so also enables the US to avoid any unintended responses from our adversaries. This coordination begins by getting a broad view of the terminological landscape and any terms for which there is current contention.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

US Discoverable Government Information Assets Directory

The United States Government possesses a vast store of information assets that can be leveraged to inform a variety of problem sets, and can be used by a wide range of governmental actors in the formation and execution of whole-of-government strategies. To enable this goal, however, these assets first must be made accessible in a single source that catalogues the information that is held.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Int'l Norms Transgressions Magnify Gray Zone Challenges

The current international system presents multiple potential challenges to US interests. In recent years, state actors, especially but not limited to Russia and China, have taken actions that disrupt regional stability and potentially threaten US interests (Bragg, 2016). Many of these challenges are neither “traditional” military actions nor “normal” competition, but rather fall into a class of actions we have come to call “gray” (Votel, 2015). Here we define the concept as: “the purposeful use of single or multiple instruments of power to achieve security objectives by way of activities that are typically ambiguous or cloud attribution, and exceed the threshold of ordinary competition, yet intentionally fall below the level of [proportional response and] large-scale direct military conflict, and threaten the interests of other actors by challenging, undermining, or violating international customs, norms, or laws.” (Popp and Canna, 2016).
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

US-DiGIA: USG Discoverable Information Terrain

The United States currently faces a complex and dynamic security environment. States are no longer the only critical actors in the international arena; rather, a diverse range of non-state entities also has the potential to affect US interests and security—for good or bad. Economic influence, information control and propaganda, political influence, and social discontent can be and are being utilized by state and non-state actors alike to achieve their goals, in many cases bypassing the need for direct military action. In response, the US military is challenged to accomplish more, across a greater variety of domains, while facing a constrained budget environment. There are two central implications of this: first, many of the most intractable security problems the US faces require a whole of government approach. Second, in a complex and evolving international environment characterized by new and often ambiguous threats, information itself is a critical asset.
Year Published:
2017
View Publication
SMA Publication

US and Russia Interests in Middle East

Question (R4.7): What are the respective national interests of the US and Russia in the Middle East, and what are the options for alleviating US/Russian tensions to mutual satisfaction and improved regional stability?
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Impact of the Presence of ISIS in Africa

While the consideration of ISIS’s fate in Syria and Iraq of course adds significant value to the question of ISIS in Africa, ISIS’s next steps there appear to call upon a far broader set of considerations. Ultimately, the question of ISIS in Africa is complicated by the intricacies of local, state, and regional variation; competing factions and shifting loyalties, as well as the evolving situation in the Levant. Each of these issues could provide its own opportunity for a deep dive. As a first step, this report aims to provide an overview of the various considerations at play.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Syria Da’esh Insurgency

The contributors varied in their discussions of what a Da’esh transition—or the future of Syria more broadly—would look like. Drawing on work by Gelvin, Pagano suggests that three scenarios are most likely for Da’esh’s transition in Syria. These include the complete destruction and disappearance of the group and its ideology; transition into an insurgent group capable of conducting limited operations in Syria and/or inspiring attacks abroad; or disintegration into a loose collection of former fighters and free agents conducting attacks, in some cases without organizational support. Finally, University of Oklahoma ME expert, Dr. Joshua Landis, indicated that while it is difficult to generalize, the extreme factionalization that characterized Syria prior to Da’esh’s involvement would likely come back into play. As such, we may expect a revived emphasis on the clan or tribe, with ongoing resistance to central government. Landis continued by suggesting that sufficient weakening of Da’esh will eventually enable the Syrian government led by Assad to regain broad control.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Commerce in the Strait of Hormuz

Question: What internal factors would influence Iran’s decision to interfere with the free flow of commerce in the Strait of Hormuz or the Bab el Mandeb?
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Shaping Post-ISIL Iraq and Region

The expert contributors to this paper agree on the relationship between regional security and stability in Iraq: A strong and stable Iraqi government is a fundamental component of regional stability. The key to stability in Iraq is the popular legitimacy of central and local governance. Rather than operationally specific proposals, the experts suggest shaping objectives that USCENTOCM can use to prioritize and guide planning of shaping and engagement activities in four areas most critical for enhancing stability in Iraq: Political Reform Border Security, Public Safety, and Provision of Public Services. While USCENTCOM may take the lead in assisting Iraqis with issues such as border security and public safety, it likely would play a supporting role on the political and rule of law issues discussed below.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Barriers to Civil Order in Palestinian Security Sector

The origins of the Palestinian security sector can be traced to the 1993 Oslo I Accord, which established divisive security and policing responsibilities between the Palestinians and Israelis and the Oslo II agreement, which codified interim boundaries, including the division of the West Bank into a complex and fragmented patchwork of different jurisdictions. These divisions of land and security responsibilities remain in place to this day and have fostered a unique, complicated, and at times perplexing situation for both the Palestinian security sector and the civil society it serves to protect. The environment in the West Bank is replete with confusion over security sector authorities and responsibilities, frustration over barriers1 to the provision of security and justice, and fear and mistrust of the security sector forces. Moreover, the absence of publically available mission statements and codified legal documents, that clearly delineate the Palestinian security sector roles and responsibilities, adds to the complex situation.
Year Published:
2015
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SMA Publication

Subjective Decision Analysis: Egypt, Iran, Iraq, ...

The SMA Strategic Deterrence effort is a methodological study to evaluate the appropriateness and utility of modeling and wargaming to support the analytic requirements of the Deterrence Operations Joint Operating Concept (DO JOC). The objective of the study is to determine which aspects of deterrence operations and planning can be appropriately analyzed through gaming, and which aspects can be appropriately analyzed through different forms of modeling. The project also examines the synthesis of deterrence gaming and modeling, how the results of gaming can inform deterrence modeling, and how modeling can shape deterrence gaming.
Year Published:
2009
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SMA Publication

Stability Modeling (StaM) Analysis of Nigeria

Over the past decade the United States Government has recognized the importance of obtaining a rich contextual understanding of the operating environment, specifically focusing on the human terrain element, when addressing the current threats facing United States security interests, at home and abroad. This emphasis reflects a desire to obtain insight into the motivations underlying others’ intended or actual participation in violence against the United States, as well as the engagement strategies and initiatives that would be effective and sustainable within a given area of interest (AOI). However, this shift in thinking requires analysts and planners to quickly develop a nuanced understanding of the AOIs in which they are working in order to systematically assess their overall stability and identify areas of strength and weakness. A holistic understanding of the operating environment makes it possible to identify critical points in the system – both for stability and instability – and target engagement strategies and initiatives accordingly. This assessment also examines not only the first-order effects, but also potential second- and third-order effects, of US actions across multiple dimensions (governing, economic, and social).,
Year Published:
2015
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SMA Publication

Allocation of Commercial Space Industry Components

Thirty-four subject matter expert (SME) contributors, the majority from the commercial space industry, responded to this question. They provided details on the commercial space activities of 17 countries and the European Space Agency (ESA). As discussed in detail in other ViTTa reports,4 it is important to recognize that the division between public and private organizations and activities is rarely clear-cut. Furthermore, as contributors have noted in their responses both to this question5 and others,6 much of the space activity outside the US is concentrated on dual-use technologies and applications. For these reasons, we define the “commercial space industry” as capabilities and activities undertaken for commercial purposes, rather than capabilities and activities undertaken by a purely commercial space actor.
Year Published:
2018
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SMA Publication

How Disagreement Over Space Terms Can Create Barriers to Transparency in the Space Domain

Because limitations space situational awareness functionally limit direct observation of adverse events in space, actors in space instead rely on other methods of making inferences about the causes behind adverse events, including communicating with each other. As a result, miscommunications that lead to incorrect inferences about the causes of adverse events can pose great risks to stable governance and crisis management in the space domain. One solution to reduce the risks of miscommunications is creating transparency by sharing SSA-relevant information, particularly in times of crisis. An under-appreciated (and under-theorized) aspect of this process is the key space terms used to describe events and causality in the space domain. Key space terms shape and reflect how actors ascribe intentionality and describe threats within the space domain. In this Concept Paper, we argue that disagreement over key terms related to events in space form barriers to creating communication transparency. While the consequences of these discrepancies in the use of key space terms are in some cases benign, in other cases, disagreement over key space terms can negatively impact US national security when terminological disagreement stifle effective, transparent communication among space actors.
Year Published:
2018
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SMA Publication

Integrated Deterrence Reachback Study

This work was situated within the broader Strategic Multilayer Assessment Strategic Deterrence Frameworks (SDF) study, which incorporated four lines of effort (LOEs) and was initiated at the request of US Strategic Command (USSTRATCOM).
Year Published:
2024
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SMA Publication

Cognitive Biases: Causes, Effects, and Implications for Effective Messaging

In the current environment of contested norms, increasing great power competition, and rapid technological change, protecting and furthering US interests requires the ability to compete effectively in the information environment (IE). In recent years, the IE has seen the proliferation of actors, channels of communication, and messages. To compete in this crowded and contested environment, we must be able to communicate effectively. Yet, the IE is complicated, available information is often vast and imperfect, time is constrained, and additionally, we are limited by our own cognitive capacity.
Year Published:
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SMA Publication

Assessment of Strategic Implications of Population Dynamics in the Central Region—Integration Report: Radicalization

At the request of United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), SMA initiated a study to understand the strategic implications of destabilizing population dynamics within the Central Region. The effort examined drivers of instability in the region emerging from radicalization, great power competition, state-level instability, and black swan scenarios. This report integrates the research conducted by the teams listed on the front cover in response to USCENTCOM’s questions about great power competition. This report is intended to be a succinct, easily navigable representation of the exceptional work by the collective SMA team. Please click on the links embedded in the report to go directly to the research studies.
Year Published:
2020
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SMA Publication

US Action and Inaction in Lebanon: Charting the Best Course for US Interests in Great Power Competition

Despite significant challenges to its stability, Lebanon has long survived politically and economically. Nonetheless, poor governance and a severe economic crisis, coupled with ongoing public outrage, signal that the Lebanese government may no longer be able to withstand its enduring pressures.
Year Published:
2020
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SMA Publication

Stability in US-Egyptian Relations: Why the United States is Unlikely to Make a Major Policy Shift in Response to Egyptian Events

The United States’ relationship with Egypt is generally thought to be an important one (Miller, 2020; Sharp, 2019; Wisner & Salem, 2017). However, some experts suggest that the benefits obtained by the United States for its assistance to Egypt may be overstated (Hanna, 2020; Miller, 2020).
Year Published:
2020
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SMA Publication

Reintegrating the Radicalized: Challenges, Lessons Learned, and How to Overcome Barriers

We begin by defining reintegration and distinguishing it from other concepts with which it is sometimes conflated. Reintegration is often discussed in the context of disengagement, demobilization, deradicalization, the related literature, which leads to ambiguity regarding their conceptual boundaries (Crowell, 2017; Horgan, 2008; Monahan, 2012; Marsden, 2015). For the purposes of this discussion, we define reintegration as a process by which ex-combatants or associates assume functional roles in society.
Year Published:
2020
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SMA Publication

Chinese and Russian Economic Statecraft: Strategic Threat or Benign Business Activity? – A Future of Global Competition and Conflict Virtual Think Tank Report

Dr. Kerry Brown (King’s College, London), Dean Cheng (Heritage Foundation), Major Christopher Culver (US Air Force Academy), Abraham M. Denmark (Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars), Peter E. Harrell (Center for a New American Security), Anthony Rinna (Sino-NK), Dr. Derek M. Scissors (American Enterprise Institute), Andrew Small (German Marshall Fund), Dr. Robert S. Spalding III (US Air Force), Yun Sun (Stimson Center), Nicolas Véron (Bruegel and Peterson Institute for International Economics), Dr. Yuval Weber (Daniel Morgan Graduate School of National Security), Ali Wyne (RAND Corporation), Lieutenant Colonel Maciej Zaborowski (US Central Command)
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

Reconciliation and Reintegration in Afghanistan

This report provides an analysis of the compatibility of reconciliation and reintegration processes, an assessment of the potential for achieving successful reconciliation and reintegration in Afghanistan, and an examination of which US government capabilities can best be leveraged in support of these processes.
Year Published:
2018
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SMA Publication

Assessment of Pathways to Regime Collapse in the DPRK

The collapse of the North Korean economy and disastrous famine of the mid-1990s forced the regime to adapt its centrally-planned economy—most notably by allowing limited and small-scale private entrepreneurship among a starving population that the government’s Public Distribution System could no longer support. In this context, the North Koreans had turned to informal markets for sustenance in order to survive (Gause, 2018; Park, 2018; Platte, 2018; Rinna, 2018). This “bottom up” marketization resulted in policy reforms that followed rather than led the transition (Haggard & Noland, 2005; Park, 2018; Platte, 2018; Rinna, 2018).
Year Published:
2018
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SMA Speaker Series

SMA Speaker Series

Insights into Kim Jong-un’s Cognition Based on His Public Speeches

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Larry Kuznar (NSI / Indiana University – Purdue University – Fort Wayne [IPFW]), Dr. Peter Suedfeld (University of British Columbia [UBC]), and Dr. Nick Wright (Intelligent Biology / Georgetown University) as a part of its SMA Korea Strategic Outcomes Speaker Series.
May 31, 2018
Dr. Allison Astorino-Courtois, Dr. Lawrence A. Kuznar, Dr. Peter Suedfeld, and Dr. Nicholas Wright
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SMA Speaker Series

SMA CENTCOM Panel Discussion—The Gulf and Egypt

SMA hosted a panel discussion as a part of its SMA CENTCOM Population Dynamics Speaker Series. The panelists included Mr. Weston Aviles (NSI), Dr. Marco Ehrl (Kunztown University), Dr. Robert Hinck (Monmouth College), Mr. Howard Lee (US Army TRADOC), AND Dr. Sabrina Polansky (NSI).At the request of United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), SMA initiated a study in August 2019 to understand the strategic implications of destabilizing population dynamics within the Central Region. CENTCOM asked SMA research teams to consider how drivers of instability in the region—to include long-term internally displaced persons (IDPs) and refugees, spread of radical ideologies and extremism, great power competition, disruptive non-state actors, and the potential for black swan scenarios—could be mitigated across PMESII levers of national power.
March 31, 2020
Weston Aviles, Dr. Marco Ehrl, Robert Hinck, and Dr. Sabrina Polansky
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SMA Speaker Series

SMA CENTCOM Panel Discussion on Radicalization (Part I)

SMA hosted a panel discussion as a part of its SMA CENTCOM Population Dynamics Speaker Series. The panelists included Dr. Skye Cooley (Oklahoma State University), Ms. Nicole (Peterson) Omundson (NSI, Inc.), Dr. Nicholas Wright (Intelligent Biology), Dr. Sabrina (Pagano) Polansky (NSI, Inc.), Dr. Karl Kaltenthaler (University of Akron), Mr. Ali Jafri (NSI, Inc.), Dr. Lawrence Kuznar (NSI, Inc.) and Mr. Howard Lee (US Army TRADOC).
March 10, 2020
Dr. Skye Cooley (Oklahoma State University); Nicole (Peterson) Omundson (NSI, Inc.); Dr. Nicholas Wright (Intelligent Biology); Dr. Sabrina (Pagano) Polansky (NSI, Inc.); Dr. Karl Kaltenthaler (University of Akron); Dr. Lawrence Kuznar (NSI, Inc.); Howard Lee (US Army TRADOC)
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SMA Speaker Series

Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) of Stability Pathways in Afghanistan- Phase I Insights

SMA hosted a panel discussion as a part of its SMA CENTCOM (Afghanistan) Speaker Series. The speakers for this panel discussion included Ms. Sarah Canna (NSI, Inc.), Dr. Skye Cooley (Oklahoma State University), Dr. Robert Hinck (Monmouth College), Mr. James Krakar (USARMY TRADOC), and Dr. Sabrina Pagano (NSI, Inc.). Ms. Canna provided a brief description of Phase I of the most recent CENTCOM Reach Back effort, which focuses on South Asia and looks at a variety of future stability outcomes for Afghanistan. Mr. Krakar then discussed the TRADOC G-27 Modeling & Simulation Branch’s (i.e. Athena Simulation) contributions to the effort, highlighting the simulation’s four major findings. Next, Dr. Pagano spoke about NSI’s Pathways model, which evaluates which of several examined pathways Afghanistan is currently on, where it is headed, and what drivers, buffers, and barriers to stability are involved. Dr. Cooley and Dr. Hinck proceeded to discuss their main findings after examining Chinese and Russian news media coverage related to security and stability in Afghanistan. Ms. Canna concluded the session by briefly speaking about NSI’s initial Interest, Resolve, and Capability (IRC) analysis for Afghanistan.
July 20, 2018
Dr. Skye Cooley, Dr. Robert Hinck, James Krakar, and Dr. Sabrina Pagano
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NSI Publications

NSI Publication

US-DiGIA: USG Discoverable Information Terrain

The United States currently faces a complex and dynamic security environment. States are no longer the only critical actors in the international arena; rather, a diverse range of non-state entities also has the potential to affect US interests and security—for good or bad. Economic influence, information control and propaganda, political influence, and social discontent can be and are being utilized by state and non-state actors alike to achieve their goals, in many cases bypassing the need for direct military action. In response, the US military is challenged to accomplish more, across a greater variety of domains, while facing a constrained budget environment. There are two central implications of this: first, many of the most intractable security problems the US faces require a whole of government approach. Second, in a complex and evolving international environment characterized by new and often ambiguous threats, information itself is a critical asset.
Year Published:
2017
View Publication
NSI Publication

US Discoverable Government Information Assets Directory

The United States Government possesses a vast store of information assets that can be leveraged to inform a variety of problem sets, and can be used by a wide range of governmental actors in the formation and execution of whole-of-government strategies. To enable this goal, however, these assets first must be made accessible in a single source that catalogues the information that is held.
Year Published:
2017
View Publication
NSI Publication

US and Russia Interests in Middle East

Question (R4.7): What are the respective national interests of the US and Russia in the Middle East, and what are the options for alleviating US/Russian tensions to mutual satisfaction and improved regional stability?
Year Published:
2017
View Publication
NSI Publication

US Action and Inaction in Lebanon: Charting the Best Course for US Interests in Great Power Competition

Despite significant challenges to its stability, Lebanon has long survived politically and economically. Nonetheless, poor governance and a severe economic crisis, coupled with ongoing public outrage, signal that the Lebanese government may no longer be able to withstand its enduring pressures.
Year Published:
2020
View Publication
NSI Publication

Subjective Decision Analysis: Egypt, Iran, Iraq, ...

The SMA Strategic Deterrence effort is a methodological study to evaluate the appropriateness and utility of modeling and wargaming to support the analytic requirements of the Deterrence Operations Joint Operating Concept (DO JOC). The objective of the study is to determine which aspects of deterrence operations and planning can be appropriately analyzed through gaming, and which aspects can be appropriately analyzed through different forms of modeling. The project also examines the synthesis of deterrence gaming and modeling, how the results of gaming can inform deterrence modeling, and how modeling can shape deterrence gaming.
Year Published:
2009
View Publication
NSI Publication

Syria Da’esh Insurgency

The contributors varied in their discussions of what a Da’esh transition—or the future of Syria more broadly—would look like. Drawing on work by Gelvin, Pagano suggests that three scenarios are most likely for Da’esh’s transition in Syria. These include the complete destruction and disappearance of the group and its ideology; transition into an insurgent group capable of conducting limited operations in Syria and/or inspiring attacks abroad; or disintegration into a loose collection of former fighters and free agents conducting attacks, in some cases without organizational support. Finally, University of Oklahoma ME expert, Dr. Joshua Landis, indicated that while it is difficult to generalize, the extreme factionalization that characterized Syria prior to Da’esh’s involvement would likely come back into play. As such, we may expect a revived emphasis on the clan or tribe, with ongoing resistance to central government. Landis continued by suggesting that sufficient weakening of Da’esh will eventually enable the Syrian government led by Assad to regain broad control.
Year Published:
2017
View Publication
NSI Publication

Stability in US-Egyptian Relations: Why the United States is Unlikely to Make a Major Policy Shift in Response to Egyptian Events

The United States’ relationship with Egypt is generally thought to be an important one (Miller, 2020; Sharp, 2019; Wisner & Salem, 2017). However, some experts suggest that the benefits obtained by the United States for its assistance to Egypt may be overstated (Hanna, 2020; Miller, 2020).
Year Published:
2020
View Publication
NSI Publication

Stability Modeling (StaM) Analysis of Nigeria

Over the past decade the United States Government has recognized the importance of obtaining a rich contextual understanding of the operating environment, specifically focusing on the human terrain element, when addressing the current threats facing United States security interests, at home and abroad. This emphasis reflects a desire to obtain insight into the motivations underlying others’ intended or actual participation in violence against the United States, as well as the engagement strategies and initiatives that would be effective and sustainable within a given area of interest (AOI). However, this shift in thinking requires analysts and planners to quickly develop a nuanced understanding of the AOIs in which they are working in order to systematically assess their overall stability and identify areas of strength and weakness. A holistic understanding of the operating environment makes it possible to identify critical points in the system – both for stability and instability – and target engagement strategies and initiatives accordingly. This assessment also examines not only the first-order effects, but also potential second- and third-order effects, of US actions across multiple dimensions (governing, economic, and social).,
Year Published:
2015
View Publication
NSI Publication

Shaping Post-ISIL Iraq and Region

The expert contributors to this paper agree on the relationship between regional security and stability in Iraq: A strong and stable Iraqi government is a fundamental component of regional stability. The key to stability in Iraq is the popular legitimacy of central and local governance. Rather than operationally specific proposals, the experts suggest shaping objectives that USCENTOCM can use to prioritize and guide planning of shaping and engagement activities in four areas most critical for enhancing stability in Iraq: Political Reform Border Security, Public Safety, and Provision of Public Services. While USCENTCOM may take the lead in assisting Iraqis with issues such as border security and public safety, it likely would play a supporting role on the political and rule of law issues discussed below.
Year Published:
2016
View Publication
NSI Publication

Reintegrating the Radicalized: Challenges, Lessons Learned, and How to Overcome Barriers

We begin by defining reintegration and distinguishing it from other concepts with which it is sometimes conflated. Reintegration is often discussed in the context of disengagement, demobilization, deradicalization, the related literature, which leads to ambiguity regarding their conceptual boundaries (Crowell, 2017; Horgan, 2008; Monahan, 2012; Marsden, 2015). For the purposes of this discussion, we define reintegration as a process by which ex-combatants or associates assume functional roles in society.
Year Published:
2020
View Publication
NSI Publication

Promoting greater stability in post-ISIL Iraq, Volume 1

United States Central Command (CENTCOM) posed the following question to the Strategic Multi-layer Assessment (SMA) virtual reach back cell: What opportunities are there for USCENTCOM to shape a post-ISIL Iraq and regional security environment, promoting greater stability? Analyses of the security challenges facing post-ISIL Iraq frequently emphasize two central points. The first of these is that any security solution must address the political concerns and goals of key actors. This report is focused on providing insight into not only security factors, but also those political and social factors that have follow-on effects for the security domain. The second point is that both political interests and security interests are highly localized. We acknowledge the tremendous variation in interest groups within the social and political landscape in Iraq. At the same time, social science methodologies are oriented around making sense of such fragmentation, by looking for commonalities within and across societies. While no generalization will ever cover every possible case or variation, the common themes that are derived will represent likely scenarios. Toward this goal, we focus here on the broad ethno-sectarian divisions that are often currently in use in Iraq: Sunni, Shia, and Kurd. Where possible, we seek to specify relevant subgroups (e.g., Shia-led militia, Peshmerga, Sunni tribal elites). While we recognize that there is variation both within and even entirely outside of these groups, the discussion and insights here capture the interests and grievances of a wide segment of the Iraqi population as a whole.
Year Published:
2016
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NSI Publication

Reconciliation and Reintegration in Afghanistan

This report provides an analysis of the compatibility of reconciliation and reintegration processes, an assessment of the potential for achieving successful reconciliation and reintegration in Afghanistan, and an examination of which US government capabilities can best be leveraged in support of these processes.
Year Published:
2018
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NSI Publication

Promoting Greater Stability in Post-ISIL Iraq, Volume 2

United States Central Command (CENTCOM) posed the following question to the Strategic Multi-layer Assessment (SMA) virtual reach back cell: What opportunities are there for USCENTCOM to shape a post-ISIL Iraq and regional security environment, promoting greater stability? To address this question, in volume 1, we examine the drivers of legitimacy, security, and social accord for key Iraqi stakeholders. In the current volume 2, we provide an in-depth and comprehensive discussion of the key social elements and dynamics contributing to social accord, and tie the social domain to the political domain in Iraq, with accompanying implications for stability.
Year Published:
2016
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NSI Publication

Is US Success Contingent on Dominance in Every Domain

Contributors were varied in their responses, with approximately half of the subject matter experts replying to this question with a variation of “it depends.” In other words, campaign success in a multi- domain conflict (MDC) is not solely a question of US need to dominate in all domains (or not), but instead is contingent on contextual factors that are likely to vary from one conflict to the next. Broadly, these can be grouped into the following categories, which can be examined individually or in concert: a) aspects of the conflict, b) aspects of the adversary, and c) aspects of the domain (Berkowitz; Cheng; Harris Corporation; Hitchens; Karpiscak; Steer). Figure 1 presents a set of guiding questions derived from contributor inputs, which address these categories and demonstrate the range of considerations when engaging in a multi-domain conflict.
Year Published:
2018
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NSI Publication

Integrated Deterrence Reachback Study

This work was situated within the broader Strategic Multilayer Assessment Strategic Deterrence Frameworks (SDF) study, which incorporated four lines of effort (LOEs) and was initiated at the request of US Strategic Command (USSTRATCOM).
Year Published:
2024
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NSI Publication

Int'l Norms Transgressions Magnify Gray Zone Challenges

The current international system presents multiple potential challenges to US interests. In recent years, state actors, especially but not limited to Russia and China, have taken actions that disrupt regional stability and potentially threaten US interests (Bragg, 2016). Many of these challenges are neither “traditional” military actions nor “normal” competition, but rather fall into a class of actions we have come to call “gray” (Votel, 2015). Here we define the concept as: “the purposeful use of single or multiple instruments of power to achieve security objectives by way of activities that are typically ambiguous or cloud attribution, and exceed the threshold of ordinary competition, yet intentionally fall below the level of [proportional response and] large-scale direct military conflict, and threaten the interests of other actors by challenging, undermining, or violating international customs, norms, or laws.” (Popp and Canna, 2016).
Year Published:
2017
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NSI Publication

Impact of the Presence of ISIS in Africa

While the consideration of ISIS’s fate in Syria and Iraq of course adds significant value to the question of ISIS in Africa, ISIS’s next steps there appear to call upon a far broader set of considerations. Ultimately, the question of ISIS in Africa is complicated by the intricacies of local, state, and regional variation; competing factions and shifting loyalties, as well as the evolving situation in the Levant. Each of these issues could provide its own opportunity for a deep dive. As a first step, this report aims to provide an overview of the various considerations at play.
Year Published:
2017
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NSI Publication

How Disagreement Over Space Terms Can Create Barriers to Transparency in the Space Domain

Because limitations space situational awareness functionally limit direct observation of adverse events in space, actors in space instead rely on other methods of making inferences about the causes behind adverse events, including communicating with each other. As a result, miscommunications that lead to incorrect inferences about the causes of adverse events can pose great risks to stable governance and crisis management in the space domain. One solution to reduce the risks of miscommunications is creating transparency by sharing SSA-relevant information, particularly in times of crisis. An under-appreciated (and under-theorized) aspect of this process is the key space terms used to describe events and causality in the space domain. Key space terms shape and reflect how actors ascribe intentionality and describe threats within the space domain. In this Concept Paper, we argue that disagreement over key terms related to events in space form barriers to creating communication transparency. While the consequences of these discrepancies in the use of key space terms are in some cases benign, in other cases, disagreement over key space terms can negatively impact US national security when terminological disagreement stifle effective, transparent communication among space actors.
Year Published:
2018
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NSI Publication

Competition Short of Armed Conflict with a Regional Power

The experts drew on a wide range of examples from US conflicts and moved beyond a focus solely on competition short of armed conflict (CSAC or “gray zone”) to other strategies or forms of competition executed by the US. The examples offered rich source material from which to extract lessons applicable to current US- Iran relations. Lessons might be learned from relations with Iran itself beginning with the Revolution to the present; the US-Soviet Cold War; the US and North Korea (1953-present); the US and Great Britain during the 19th Century, when the US was a rising regional power and Britain was a global power; the US and China during the Taiwan Straits Crisis (1954-55); US-Cuba (1959-now); the US and Venezuela (1998-present); Central America in the 1980s; and conflict in the Balkans (1991-2000). At the most basic level, these conflicts were battles over regional security or global influence (US vs. Iran, North Korea, Venezuela, Great Britain, or USSR) or ideology/ideological influence (US vs. Iran, USSR, North Korea, China, Cuba, Central America, or the Balkans). By and large, the most relevant examples were those from the post WWII period.
Year Published:
2018
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NSI Publication

Commerce in the Strait of Hormuz

Question: What internal factors would influence Iran’s decision to interfere with the free flow of commerce in the Strait of Hormuz or the Bab el Mandeb?
Year Published:
2016
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NSI Publication

Cognitive Biases: Causes, Effects, and Implications for Effective Messaging

In the current environment of contested norms, increasing great power competition, and rapid technological change, protecting and furthering US interests requires the ability to compete effectively in the information environment (IE). In recent years, the IE has seen the proliferation of actors, channels of communication, and messages. To compete in this crowded and contested environment, we must be able to communicate effectively. Yet, the IE is complicated, available information is often vast and imperfect, time is constrained, and additionally, we are limited by our own cognitive capacity.
Year Published:
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NSI Publication

Chinese Strategic Intentions: A Deep Dive into China’s Worldwide Activities

This white paper was prepared as part of the Strategic Multilayer Assessment, entitled The Future of Global Competition and Conflict. Twenty-seven experts contributed to this white paper, providing wide-ranging assessments of China’s domestic and international activities in order to assess the future of China and the challenges that these activities may present to US interests. This white paper is divided into five sections and twenty-four chapters. While this summary presents some of the white paper’s high-level findings, the summary alone cannot fully convey the fine detail of the experts’ individual contributions, which are worth reading in their entirety.
Year Published:
2019
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NSI Publication

Chinese and Russian Economic Statecraft: Strategic Threat or Benign Business Activity? – A Future of Global Competition and Conflict Virtual Think Tank Report

Dr. Kerry Brown (King’s College, London), Dean Cheng (Heritage Foundation), Major Christopher Culver (US Air Force Academy), Abraham M. Denmark (Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars), Peter E. Harrell (Center for a New American Security), Anthony Rinna (Sino-NK), Dr. Derek M. Scissors (American Enterprise Institute), Andrew Small (German Marshall Fund), Dr. Robert S. Spalding III (US Air Force), Yun Sun (Stimson Center), Nicolas Véron (Bruegel and Peterson Institute for International Economics), Dr. Yuval Weber (Daniel Morgan Graduate School of National Security), Ali Wyne (RAND Corporation), Lieutenant Colonel Maciej Zaborowski (US Central Command)
Year Published:
2019
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NSI Publication

Barriers to Civil Order in Palestinian Security Sector

The origins of the Palestinian security sector can be traced to the 1993 Oslo I Accord, which established divisive security and policing responsibilities between the Palestinians and Israelis and the Oslo II agreement, which codified interim boundaries, including the division of the West Bank into a complex and fragmented patchwork of different jurisdictions. These divisions of land and security responsibilities remain in place to this day and have fostered a unique, complicated, and at times perplexing situation for both the Palestinian security sector and the civil society it serves to protect. The environment in the West Bank is replete with confusion over security sector authorities and responsibilities, frustration over barriers1 to the provision of security and justice, and fear and mistrust of the security sector forces. Moreover, the absence of publically available mission statements and codified legal documents, that clearly delineate the Palestinian security sector roles and responsibilities, adds to the complex situation.
Year Published:
2015
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NSI Publication

Assessment of Strategic Implications of Population Dynamics in the Central Region—Integration Report: Radicalization

At the request of United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), SMA initiated a study to understand the strategic implications of destabilizing population dynamics within the Central Region. The effort examined drivers of instability in the region emerging from radicalization, great power competition, state-level instability, and black swan scenarios. This report integrates the research conducted by the teams listed on the front cover in response to USCENTCOM’s questions about great power competition. This report is intended to be a succinct, easily navigable representation of the exceptional work by the collective SMA team. Please click on the links embedded in the report to go directly to the research studies.
Year Published:
2020
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NSI Publication

Assessment of Pathways to Regime Collapse in the DPRK

The collapse of the North Korean economy and disastrous famine of the mid-1990s forced the regime to adapt its centrally-planned economy—most notably by allowing limited and small-scale private entrepreneurship among a starving population that the government’s Public Distribution System could no longer support. In this context, the North Koreans had turned to informal markets for sustenance in order to survive (Gause, 2018; Park, 2018; Platte, 2018; Rinna, 2018). This “bottom up” marketization resulted in policy reforms that followed rather than led the transition (Haggard & Noland, 2005; Park, 2018; Platte, 2018; Rinna, 2018).
Year Published:
2018
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NSI Publication

Allocation of Commercial Space Industry Components

Thirty-four subject matter expert (SME) contributors, the majority from the commercial space industry, responded to this question. They provided details on the commercial space activities of 17 countries and the European Space Agency (ESA). As discussed in detail in other ViTTa reports,4 it is important to recognize that the division between public and private organizations and activities is rarely clear-cut. Furthermore, as contributors have noted in their responses both to this question5 and others,6 much of the space activity outside the US is concentrated on dual-use technologies and applications. For these reasons, we define the “commercial space industry” as capabilities and activities undertaken for commercial purposes, rather than capabilities and activities undertaken by a purely commercial space actor.
Year Published:
2018
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NSI Publication

(Outer) Space: An Exploration of Definitional Issues

Operationalizing or defining terms is an important first step to understanding concepts, including their boundaries and how they are distinguished from other, potentially related ideas. Similarly, clarity in communication is an essential condition for ensuring that the message or information that is transmitted is as close as possible to what is received. Within the DOD, definitions matter because they are a necessary component for the establishment and application of doctrine. Given the breadth of the space field as a whole, establishing precise definitions may become an even more pressing task, as coordination is sought over a broad base of space sub-communities (e.g., national security space, civil space, and commercial). Each field as a whole and each sub-domain within it naturally has its own terminology, which tends to evolve over time. To best advance coordination within and across the various US and allied space communities, we must be capable of fruitfully combining the work that is being done in various commands, DOD offices, and other agencies and organizations. This can be best achieved when we identify those terms for which precise definitions are required in order to move forward. Doing so also enables the US to avoid any unintended responses from our adversaries. This coordination begins by getting a broad view of the terminological landscape and any terms for which there is current contention.
Year Published:
2017
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NSI Publication

International Transgressions Magnify Gray Zone Challenges

The current international system presents multiple potential challenges to US interests. In recent years, state actors, especially but not limited to Russia and China, have taken actions that disrupt regional stability and potentially threaten US interests (Bragg, 2016).
Year Published:
2017
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NSI Publication

Specifying and Systematizing the Gray Zone

In their continued work on the changing nature of the threat environment General Votel et al (2016) forecast that the majority of threats to US security interests in coming years will be found in a “gray zone” between acceptable competition and open warfare.
Year Published:
2017
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NSI Publication

African-American Women Depression & Ethnic Identity

This study examines direct, interactive, and indirect effects of racial identity and depression in a sample of 379 African American women
Year Published:
2010
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NSI Publication

Moral Emotions - Predicting Political Attitudes

A web-based study of 393 undergraduates at a public university in the United States was conducted to examine the relationship between moral emotions (i.e., emotions that motivate prosocial tendencies) and support for political actions to assist Iraqi citizens after the Second Gulf War (2003–2004).
Year Published:
2007
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NSI Publication

Summary of NSI's "Assessment to Collapse in the DPRK: A NSI Pathways™ Report—Featured in Red Diamond Volume 10, Issue 1

This article was featured in Volume 10, Issue 1 of the US Army Training and Doctrine Command’s (TRADOC G2) journal, entitled Red Diamond.
Year Published:
2020
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NSI Publication

Dignity is the Key Metric for Customer Service

Taking another look at what it means to treat customers with dignity and how it benefits your business.For the last several decades customer service has cycled through an evolution of different metrics, all focused on measuring if the customer is happy.
Year Published:
2015
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