This Conference assessed what today we rightly or wrongly perceive as historically unprecedented changes from the perspectives of politics and history, sociology, biology, information science, and technological innovation. There is a large body of scientific work that supports the notion that human societies are complex adaptive systems with emergent properties that contain core commonalities, but the actions of which cannot be predicted with certainty. Given the properties of human cognition and social behavior, the question remains: How might nations and societies best position themselves to prepare for and manage the risks associated with rapid change under conditions of fundamental uncertainty? The conference speakers and panelists addressed these issues relevant to key domains and dimensions of global security.

This report marries contemporary social science theory, applied research, and operational experience to provide a range of perspectives on terrorism to challenge the reader to ask better, more relevant questions.

This White Volume assesses U.S. long term national security challenges, employing a global perspective that accounts for the changing political, economic, social, and psychological profiles of populations, and the rapid changes they experience in a globally connected information en- vironment. It addresses many of the key national security challenges iden- tified by LTG Flynn in the Preface. The collection of essays explores future population-centric national security challenges through the lens of the lat- est research from the social, neurological, and complexity sciences. The papers emphasize “enduring” long term themes that are focused on the in- teractions of populations and their environments. They are not U.S.- centric, but multi-perspective and examine underlying long term phenom- ena.

The Concepts & Analysis of Nuclear Strategy (CANS) project undertaken for US Strategic Command (USSTRATCOM) was tasked to examine the utility of alternative analytic techniques for assessing nuclear force attributes and sufficiency under a variety of changed conditions. The CANS software developed during this effort is designed to enhance the planning process by guiding the analyst through the process of selecting appropriate alternate analytic techniques.

The purpose of this compendium of white papers is to explore various perspectives on the state of the art in our understanding of collaboration, including insights on the key factors that influence the who, what, when, where, and how of this topic. Collaboration traditionally refers to multiple people or organizations working towards common goals, but there are many other perspectives and definitions. The objective of this compendium is to identify and discuss the issues:

This white paper covers topics related to the field of anticipating/forecasting specific categories of “rare events” such as acts of terror, use of a weapon of mass destruction, or other high profile attacks. It is primarily meant for the operational community in DoD, DHS, and other USG agencies. It addresses three interrelated facets of the problem set:

This report provides a concise, highly visual overview of the food security subsystem of the AECM (AFRICOM Exploitable Conditions Model). In addition to enabling analysis of causes and consequences of food security (and insecurity) in USAFRICOM’s AOR, it identifies three possible leverage points where interventions by the US could improve food security on the continent:

This paper addresses potential security concerns in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region over the next 5-25 years if a strong Chinese-Russian alliance develops. It also offers the U.S. Central Command (USCENTCOM) possible approaches to pre-empt both the formation of a China-Russia Axis and subsequent emergence of a Middle East and North Africa (MENA) periphery.

Four panelists with deep knowledge and experience in the USCENTCOM AOR and with complex systems modeling were asked to reflect on how to think about and anticipate surprises in the USCENTCOM area of responsibility (AOR), especially Black Swan surprises that are the product of non-linear relationships between interacting variables. The panelists shared a wealth of knowledge on the region and complexity. Key takeaways included:

This paper reports a number of the top-level findings from the Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) Strategic Outcomes in the Korean Peninsula project requested by the Joint Staff and USINDOPACOM. They are based on an integration of the results of the eleven different analytic efforts included in the project.

SMA hosted a panel with Mr. Michael A. Clark (Director for Acquisition and Technology (J9), USCYBERCOM), Ms. Kayse Jansen (Branch Chief, Deterrence Analysis and Outreach, Plans and Policy Directorate, USSTRATCOM/J5), Mr. James “JJ” Jenista (Air Force Civilian, Joint Training, Exercise, and Wargaming Directorate (J7), USNORTHCOM & NORAD), Mr. Robert C. Jones (Senior Strategist, USSOCOM J5-JSOU Donovan Integration Group), Mr. Jimmy Krakar (Academic Coordinator, USEUCOM), Ms. Lesley Kucharski (Analyst, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory), Dr. Robert M. Toguchi (Chief, Concepts Division, Force Modernization Directorate (FMD), USASOC), Col David W. Walker (Policy Division Chief, USCENTCOM CCJ5), and Ms. Michele K. Wolfe (Senior Operations Research Analyst, USAFRICOM) as part of its SMA General Speaker Series.

Modern strategic competition is forcing decision-making to occur more quickly in an increasingly cluttered information environment.

SMA hosted a speaker session with Mr. Josh Kerbel (National Intelligence University) as part of its SMA General Speaker Series.

SMA hosted a speaker session with Wayne Michael (Mike) Hall (Brigadier General, US Army, Retired), Marc Finkelstein (Chief Scientist, Hughes Aircraft, Advanced Concepts Directorate, Space and Communications Group & President, FlightScience, LLC), and Gary Citrenbaum, PhD, (President/Chief Scientist of Systems Analytics, SoSACorp) as part of its SMA General Speaker Series.

SMA hosted a speaker session as a part of its SMA UK MoD Speaker Series, featuring Dr. Davide Natalini (Global Sustainability Institute, Anglia Ruskin University).Dr. Natalini began the presentation with an overview of complex social-ecological systems, or how different dynamics between social systems and ecological systems interact and create certain dynamics, such as climate change. He stated that there are four key properties of complex systems. The first is numerosity, or the accumulation of multiple components. The second is non-linearity, or the presence of thresholds that can cause regime shifts. There is also interconnectedness, or the interactions between components and sub-systems. Finally, there is emergence, or characteristics or behaviors resulting from a complex system that could not be captured by merely studying its singular components in isolation. When we refer to interactions between humans and nature, we refer to them as complex social-ecological systems. This framework emphasizes that humans must be seen as a part of nature, as opposed to apart from it, Dr. Natalini explained. Furthermore, human activities have a profound impact on the ecological system, which in turn affects human activities. Biodiversity and connected ecosystem services continue to be destroyed, and one-fifth of the world’s countries are at risk of their ecosystems collapsing due to the destruction of wildlife and their habitats

Four panelists with deep knowledge and experience in the USCENTCOM AOR and with complex systems modeling were asked to reflect on how to think about and anticipate surprises in the USCENTCOM area of responsibility (AOR), especially Black Swan surprises that are the product of non-linear relationships between interacting variables. The panelists shared a wealth of knowledge on the region and complexity. Key takeaways included:

SMA hosted speaker session presented by LTC Thomas Pike (National Intelligence University) as a part of its Future of Global Competition & Conflict Speaker Series. During part one of his two-part brief, LTC Pike focused on three findings from his dissertation: 1) The theoretical foundation (e.g., complex adaptive systems, complex systems, systems theory, complexity) of joint doctrine is strong; 2) The application of complex systems through the Joint Intelligence Preparation of the Operational Environment (JIPOE) can be improved by shifting from categorical description to the discussion of interdependencies within the operating environment; and 3) Uniqueness is a key feature of complex systems, which means that centrally derived solutions can support but never replace local leaders. After briefly reviewing the basics of JIPOE, LTC Pike used different types of finches to illustrate the difference between categories and interdependencies. He also stated that categories provide descriptions, while interdependencies provide operational insights. Moreover, it is important to note that influencing the adaptive path of the system is difficult and could be dangerous. LTC Pike then used Inchon, South Korea as a landing point during World War I and Anzio, Italy as a landing point during World War II to illustrate how seizing an enemy’s interdependency can lead it to fundamentally change its calculus. He also compared the relationships between the US’s government and military with the relationships between Pakistan’s government and military in order to illustrate how interdependencies influence system behavior. LTC Pike highlighted a series of policy implications as well, indicating that the relative size of a winning coalition determines whether the government distributes public goods or private goods. He then used a simulation involving Libya to illustrate this point and cautioned that the US’s strength can undermine its attempts to establish a democracy. Furthermore, the US must understand the interdependencies it creates and alters within a foreign population. To conclude, LTC Pike provided a series of recommendations for upgrading JIPOE, highlighting the need for the joint force to manage the analysis of relevant actor interdependencies to better understand links between behavioral trends and outcomes.

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Hilton Root (George Mason University) as a part of its SMA Future of Global Competition & Conflict Speaker Series. Dr. Root first stated that there is an increased fear of global instability and a diminished confidence in the solutions of the past. Therefore, over the past 10-20 years, experts have started to rethink the grand narrative of political and economic history we have grown to adopt. Furthermore, the rise of the East and its diversion from the West in terms of norms and political organization have also inspired this rethinking. When writing his book, Dr. Root studied the history of regimes and examined five great transitions in history to derive the following conclusion: The global economy is a network of networks.

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Krista Langeland (RAND) as a part of its SMA STRATCOM Academic Alliance Speaker Series.

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Sean Lawson (University of Utah) as a part of its SMA General Speaker Series. During his presentation, Dr. Lawson presented a brief history of the ways in which ideas from nonlinear science have impacted US military thinking, doctrine, and strategy, while focusing on the post-World War II time period.

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Chuck Ehlschlaeger (US Army Corps of Engineers, Engineer Research and Development Center, Construction Engineering Research Lab [CEERD-CERL]) as a part of its SMA General Speaker Series.