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The Power of Will in International Conflict: How to Think Critically in Complex Environments

Speaker(s):
Wayne Michael (Mike) Hall and Marc Finkelstein
Date of Event:
November 4, 2021
Associated SMA Project
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Speaker(s): Hall, W. M. (Brigadier General, US Army, Retired); Finkelstein, M. (Chief Scientist, Hughes Aircraft, Advanced Concepts Directorate, Space and Communications Group & President of FlightScience, LLC); Citrenbaum, G. (President/Chief Scientist of Systems Analytics, SoSACorp)
Date: 2 November 2021
Speaker Session Summary

SMA hosted a speaker session with Wayne Michael (Mike) Hall (Brigadier General, US Army, Retired), Marc Finkelstein (Chief Scientist, Hughes Aircraft, Advanced Concepts Directorate, Space and Communications Group & President, FlightScience, LLC), and Gary Citrenbaum, PhD, (President/Chief Scientist of Systems Analytics, SoSACorp) as part of its SMA General Speaker Series.

The duration of a conflict is directly influenced by the combatants’ will to fight and their inability to reach a compromise. All combatants share several traits such as a resolve and desire to win their conflict. If decision makers can better understand their own soldiers will to fight and the resolve of adversary leaders, then the US will better be able to compete with state and non-state actors alike. Mr. Hall commented that incorporating the study of will into the educational and organization curriculum of the DoD and certain technological advancements will help quantifiably, measure, and predict an actor’s will to fight. This educational curriculum should focus on 14 elements of will that can be binned under three categories: moral, physical, and intellectual.

One method for understanding combatants’ will is by quantifying the individual leaders’ will by scoring their feelings, perception, and resolve relating to individual issues. After the data has been collected, analysts can identify outliers and group thinkers by clustering the data. This clustering method is already used by many private companies to inundate consumers with adds and content tailored to them. Mr. Finkelstein commented that this type of clustering allows these patterns to be found quickly even in large datasets. Dr. Citrenbaum commented that this type of cluster analysis combined with the correct technology can help military operators with intelligence gathering, mission analysis, planning the course of action, and mission execution. While this analysis can predict actors’ willingness to fight and actions they will take, these predictions are not certainties.

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Hall, Finkelstein, and Citrenbaum- Speaker Biographies

Wayne Michael (Mike) Hall, Brigadier General, US Army, Retired                                    

Mike’s military career spanned 30 years. He served as senior intelligence officer in one infantry battalion (1st Infantry Division, Fort Riley, KS), two infantry brigades (2d Infantry Division, Republic of Korea, and 1st Infantry Division, Fort Riley, KS), and one airborne infantry division (82d Airborne Division). He was the 4th Infantry Division Plans Officer, Fort Carson CO. He commanded the military intelligence battalion in the 82d Airborne Division from 1989-1991and a military intelligence brigade in the Republic of Korea from 1994-1996.  He participated in Operation Golden Pheasant in Honduras in 1988 as the 82d Airborne Division G2; Just Cause in Panama in 1989 as the 82dAirborne Division Military Intelligence Battalion Commander; and Operation Desert Shield and Desert Storm from 1990-1991 as the 82dAirborne Division Military Intelligence Battalion Commander. BG (R)Hall commanded the 501stMI Brigade in Korea from 1994-1996. As a General Officer, he was theJ2 (Joint and Combined intelligence officer) for US ForcesKorea/Deputy C2 for two years from 1996-1998. From 1998-1999, he led a study for the Chief of Staff of the Army on the future of ArmyMilitary Intelligence. He is a Senior Parachutist, and proudly wears the Army’s Ranger Tab.

Duringretirement, Mike worked as a consultant and applied his expertise toseveral commercial and military organizations. During this time, heparticipated a variety of Joint Forces Command’s experiments. He also designed and led advanced intelligence analysis seminars toArmy, Air Force, and Marine Corps civilian and military intelligenceanalysts and collections specialists. Over six years, he helped 1250analysts learn how to think better about advanced analysis in 52two-week seminars.

Mike’sacademic credentials include: Bachelor of Science in history from theUniversity of Nebraska, a Master of Science in Adult Education fromKansas State University, a Master of Military Art and Science fromthe U.S. Army Command and General Staff College, and an Ed.D. fromGeorge Washington University. He attended the Army’s CGSC, Schoolof Advanced Military Studies (SAMS), and the National War College.

Mikehas authored four books: StrayVoltage War in The Information Age (NavalInstitute Press, 2003),IntelligenceAnalysis—Howto Think in Complex Environments (PraegerSecurity International (PSI), 2009),IntelligenceCollection—How To Plan and Execute Collection Operations in ComplexEnvironments (PSI,2012),and—ThePower of Will in International Conflict How to Think Critically inComplex Environments(PSI, 2018).

Marc Finkelstein

Marc has over 35 years experience conducting intelligence analysis and developing intelligence collection systems. He has served as Chief Scientist of Hughes Aircraft, Advanced Concepts Directorate, Space and Communications Group, and as President of Flight Science, LLC.

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NSI Contributors
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Region
North America
USA
Methodology
Complexity
National Security Topic
Intent
Outcome

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