The United States is regularly challenged by the actions of states and non-state actors in the nebulous, confusing, and ambiguous environment known as the Gray Zone. Planners, decision makers, and operators within the national security enterprise need to understand what tools are available for their use in the Gray Zone and how to best develop, employ, and coordinate those tools. This report summarizes the results of simulations created and executed by the ICONS Project as part of a larger study to capture at least some of the information needed toward that end.

The United States is regularly challenged by the actions of states and non-state actors in the nebulous, confusing, and ambiguous environment known as the Gray Zone. Planners, decision makers, and operators within the national security enterprise need to understand what tools are available for their use in the Gray Zone and how to best develop, employ, and coordinate those tools. This report summarizes the results of simulations created and executed by the ICONS Project as part of a larger study to capture at least some of the information needed toward that end.

At the request of Joint Staff, the SMA program, in coordination with United States Army Special Operations Command (USASOC) and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), participated in a second Counter-Da’esh Messaging Simulation that brought together nearly 100 Psychological Operation (PSYOP) operators, USG and international observers, interagency representatives, population experts from Iraq and North Africa, Da’esh experts, universities, and think tanks. This exercise served as both a test bed for messaging techniques and a training opportunity for PSYOP operators.

Evaluating strategic risk in the Eurasia region over the next two to three decades is a complex challenge that is vital for USEUCOM planning and mission success. The depth of our understanding of the diverse set of political, economic, and social actors in the region will determine how effectively we respond to emerging opportunities and threats to US interests. A better understanding of Russia’s priorities and interests, and their implications, both regionally and globally, will help planners and policy makers both anticipate and respond to future developments.

At the request of the U.S. Security Coordinator for Israel and the Palestinian Authority (USSC) the J-39 Strategic-Multilayer Assessment (SMA) Branch undertook a Coordinator’s Mission Review in July 2014 and concluded it in February 2015. This SMA project resulted in an unprecedented collaborative effort among over one hundred subject-matter experts from numerous organizations across the Department of Defense, U.S. Government Departments and Intelligence Agencies, Academia, Think Tanks, and Private Industry. The work of these subject- matter experts is summarized in this white paper.

Socio-Cultural Analysis (SCA) has evolved rapidly over the past decade as conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq have forced the DOD to reappraise the techniques used to collect information about the populations in conflict zones. As these two major con- flicts wind down, the DOD must recognize that SCA must evolve again due the changing nature of phase zero operations and prepare for future conflicts. Given the challenges of declining DOD budgets while improving our SCA capabilities, the chap- ters in this white volume describe many of the issues facing the DOD for phase zero operations and collecting the socio-cultural information necessary should conflicts escalate. Most of the chapters’ discussions were heavily influenced by LTG Flynn et al.’s “Left of bang: The value of socio-cultural analysis in today’s environment” PRISM article.1 “Left of bang…” was also revised and included in the SMA/ERDC or- ganized White Volume “National Security Challenges: Insights from Social, Neurobi- ological, and Complexity Sciences.” SMA followed that effort with additional occa- sional white papers discussing the operational relevance of the social sciences2 and social science validity,3 available at http://www.nsiteam.com/publications.html. This White Volume builds on those efforts to provide a spectrum of views on the gaps on the operational use of SCA in a phase zero setting. If there is a valid criticism to be made regarding this white volume, it is that it favors researchers attempting to automate socio-cultural information processing over traditional qualitative techniques. The authors realize that the USG must understand socio-cultural situations across the entire planet to as high or higher level of fidelity than we did in Iraq and Afghani- stan: without spending equivalent resources. Collecting magnitudes more useful in- formation with a similar or smaller budget will require innovative techniques that don’t require socio-cultural experts hand massaging ALL the data into actionable information.

This paper reports the theoretical review and framework development conducted by the STRATCOM/J-5 “Concept and Analysis of Nuclear Strategy (CANS) Theory Team. It reports the theoretical review and framework development with two goals in mind:

This white paper covers topics related to the field of anticipating/forecasting specific categories of “rare events” such as acts of terror, use of a weapon of mass destruction, or other high profile attacks. It is primarily meant for the operational community in DoD, DHS, and other USG agencies. It addresses three interrelated facets of the problem set:

The ICONS Project, a wargaming and simulation organization at the University of Maryland, was asked by the Joint Staff, J39, DDGO, Strategic Multilayer Assessment Office (SMA), to design, execute, and analyze a Table Top Exercise (TTX) in support of the Integration of Information in Joint Operations (IIJO) research

This report supported SMA’s Integrating Information in Joint Operations (IIJO) project. For additional speaker sessions and project publications, please visit the IIJO project page.As part of the modeling and simulation phase of the IIJO effort, the Center for Advanced Red

At the request of the United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), the Joint Staff Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) conducted a study to understand the strategic implications of destabilizing population dynamics within the Central Region. The SMA considered drivers of instability in the region to include long-term internally displaced persons and refugees, spread of radical ideologies and extremism, great power competition, disruptive non-state actors, and the potential for “black swan” scenarios.

This paper reports a number of the top-level findings from the Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) Strategic Outcomes in the Korean Peninsula project requested by the Joint Staff and USINDOPACOM. They are based on an integration of the results of the eleven different analytic efforts included in the project.

SMA hosted a panel discussion as a part of its Future of Global Competition & Conflict Speaker Series. The panelists included Mr. Jumanne Donahue (US Army TRADOC G2), Dr. Peter Suedfeld (University of British Columbia (UBC)), and Dr. Maorong Jiang (Creighton University). Mr. Donahue first discussed the results of an Athena simulation designed to computationally model three potential China futures over the next 10 years. These potential futures included 1) status quo continuation, 2) state capitalist acceleration, and 3) the lost decade (i.e., a situation in which China declines economically). The team derived four primary conclusions from the simulation: 1) the possibility of regime change in China is virtually nonexistent; 2) China will likely remain stable overall despite any localized disturbances and grievances; 3) Chinese elites are generally satisfied with the status quo of Chinese Communist Party (CCP) governance; and 4) the Hong Kong disturbances are ephemeral, and their impact on the rest of China is minimal. Next, Dr. Peter Suedfeld discussed the UBC team’s cognitive and motivational analyses on the leaders of the Chinese economy. The UBC team sought to identify what key aspects of cognition and motivation/interests drive Chinese global activities and strategy. In order to do this, the UBC team scored randomly selected texts based on integrative complexity and motive imagery. These texts included leaders’ discourse from various sectors of the Chinese economy, including the general economy, space, technology, and cyberspace. The UBC team found that 1) the integrative complexity of Chinese leadership was relatively high, 2) the motive imagery scores were also relatively high, 3) cyberspace scores were fairly low, and 4) achievement (i.e., competition, excellence, progress, etc.) appeared to be quite high as well. Dr. Maorong Jiang then presented a flexible framework to achieve strategic objectives in US-China policy. Dr. Jiang explained that there is an urgent need for the US to adopt a new strategic framework that both embraces Chinese political and economic realities and uses those realities to its advantage in order to advance US national and international agendas. This strategic framework also utilizes a soft-power deterrence approach to engage, challenge, and integrate China. He also emphasized that these strategic framework should be implemented with flexibility to ensure adaptability in the face of change. To conclude, Dr. Jiang made recommendations for US strategy towards China over the short-term (1-3 years, focusing on reengaging China), the medium term (3-7 years, focusing on challenging China while sharing responsibility), and the long term (7-10 years, focusing on integrating China to secure a rules-based global order).

SMA hosted a panel discussion as a part of its SMA CENTCOM (Afghanistan) Speaker Series. Presenters included Mr. James Krakar (US Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC) G27 Models and Simulations Branch), Dr. Karl Kaltenthaler (University of Akron and Case Western Reserve University), Mr. Vern Liebl (US Marine Corps University, Center for Advanced Operational and Culture Learning), Mr. Michael Logan (University of Nebraska at Omaha), and Dr. Craig Whiteside (Naval War College at the Naval Postgraduate School).

SMA hosted a panel discussion as a part of its SMA General Speaker Series. Presenters included Lt Col Dave Lyle (Air Education and Training Command [AETC] and Air University), Dr. Michael Bunting (University of Maryland Center for Advanced Study of Language [UMD CASL]), Dr. Petra Bradley (UMD CASL), Dr. Jared Linck (UMD CASL), Dr. Kevin Gluck (Air Force Research Laboratory [AFRL] Cognitive Science, Models, and Agents Branch), Lt Col Paul Vicars (Pilot Training Next [PTN]), Maj Travis Sheets (PTN), and Dr. Andy Stricker (Air University).

SMA hosted a panel discussion as a part of its SMA CENTCOM (Afghanistan) Speaker Series. The speakers for this panel discussion included Ms. Sarah Canna (NSI, Inc.), Dr. Skye Cooley (Oklahoma State University), Dr. Robert Hinck (Monmouth College), Mr. James Krakar (USARMY TRADOC), and Dr. Sabrina Pagano (NSI, Inc.). Ms. Canna provided a brief description of Phase I of the most recent CENTCOM Reach Back effort, which focuses on South Asia and looks at a variety of future stability outcomes for Afghanistan. Mr. Krakar then discussed the TRADOC G-27 Modeling & Simulation Branch’s (i.e. Athena Simulation) contributions to the effort, highlighting the simulation’s four major findings. Next, Dr. Pagano spoke about NSI’s Pathways model, which evaluates which of several examined pathways Afghanistan is currently on, where it is headed, and what drivers, buffers, and barriers to stability are involved. Dr. Cooley and Dr. Hinck proceeded to discuss their main findings after examining Chinese and Russian news media coverage related to security and stability in Afghanistan. Ms. Canna concluded the session by briefly speaking about NSI’s initial Interest, Resolve, and Capability (IRC) analysis for Afghanistan.

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Jumanne Donahue (US Army TRADOC G-27) as a part of its SMA General Speaker Series. Dr. Donahue spoke about how societies struggle to “cope with cultural and political complexity in an increasingly interconnected world,” going on to discuss how weaponized narratives and computational propaganda contribute to societal problems. He then described his dissertation research, which examined “social and geopolitical problems and how culturally-enabled technology, games, and simulations might be used to address them.” The culmination of this work is the Intercultural Coordination System (ICS), which seeks to create ethical and enlightened communities with inclusive, prosocial values. Dr. Donahue concluded by explaining how ICS was created and describing the features of these communities, the cyclical process involved, and potential applications of ICS.

Security and privacy aren’t dichotomous or conflicting concerns—the solution lies in developing and integrating advanced information technologies for counterterrorism along with privacy-protection technologies to safeguard civil liberties. Coordinated policies can help bind the two to their intended use.

This book explores both counter-terrorism and enabling policy dimensions of emerging information technologies in national security.

September 11, 2001 might have been just another day if the U.S. intelligence agencies had been better equipped with information technology, according to the report of Congress’s Joint Inquiry into the events leading up to the Sept. 11 attacks.