Future of Global Competition & Conflict Conclusion of Effort Panel Discussion (Part 1 of 2)

“Future of Global Competition & Conflict Conclusion of Effort Panel Discussion (Part 1 of 2)“
Speakers: Donahue, J. (US Army TRADOC G2); Suedfeld, P. (University of British Columbia); Jiang, M. (Creighton University)
Date: 30 October 2019
Speaker Session Preview
SMA hosted a panel discussion as a part of its Future of Global Competition & Conflict Speaker Series. The panelists included Mr. Jumanne Donahue (US Army TRADOC G2), Dr. Peter Suedfeld (University of British Columbia (UBC)), and Dr. Maorong Jiang (Creighton University). Mr. Donahue first discussed the results of an Athena simulation designed to computationally model three potential China futures over the next 10 years. These potential futures included 1) status quo continuation, 2) state capitalist acceleration, and 3) the lost decade (i.e., a situation in which China declines economically). The team derived four primary conclusions from the simulation: 1) the possibility of regime change in China is virtually nonexistent; 2) China will likely remain stable overall despite any localized disturbances and grievances; 3) Chinese elites are generally satisfied with the status quo of Chinese Communist Party (CCP) governance; and 4) the Hong Kong disturbances are ephemeral, and their impact on the rest of China is minimal. Next, Dr. Peter Suedfeld discussed the UBC team’s cognitive and motivational analyses on the leaders of the Chinese economy. The UBC team sought to identify what key aspects of cognition and motivation/interests drive Chinese global activities and strategy. In order to do this, the UBC team scored randomly selected texts based on integrative complexity and motive imagery. These texts included leaders’ discourse from various sectors of the Chinese economy, including the general economy, space, technology, and cyberspace. The UBC team found that 1) the integrative complexity of Chinese leadership was relatively high, 2) the motive imagery scores were also relatively high, 3) cyberspace scores were fairly low, and 4) achievement (i.e., competition, excellence, progress, etc.) appeared to be quite high as well. Dr. Maorong Jiang then presented a flexible framework to achieve strategic objectives in US-China policy. Dr. Jiang explained that there is an urgent need for the US to adopt a new strategic framework that both embraces Chinese political and economic realities and uses those realities to its advantage in order to advance US national and international agendas. This strategic framework also utilizes a soft-power deterrence approach to engage, challenge, and integrate China. He also emphasized that these strategic framework should be implemented with flexibility to ensure adaptability in the face of change. To conclude, Dr. Jiang made recommendations for US strategy towards China over the short-term (1-3 years, focusing on reengaging China), the medium term (3-7 years, focusing on challenging China while sharing responsibility), and the long term (7-10 years, focusing on integrating China to secure a rules-based global order).
Speaker Session Audio Recording
To access an audio file of the session, please email Ms. Nicole Omundson (nomundson@nsiteam.com).
Dr. Jumanne Donahue
Jumanne Donahue is a Senior Consultant at CGI Federal, Inc.  For the past twelve years, he has worked in support of US Joint Forces Command and the US Army Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC) G-2 Models and Simulations directorate in various capacities.  He was a cultural researcher and knowledge engineer on the First Person Cultural Trainer simulation developed for TRADOC G-2 by the University of Texas at Dallas.  Dr. Donahue’s current position is that of a Research and Simulation Analyst.
Mr. Donahue earned his PhD in Arts, Technology, and Emerging Communication from the University of Texas at Dallas with an emphasis on cultural modeling and simulation. He holds a MFA in Arts and Technology from the University of Texas at Dallas and a BS in Computer Science from Texas A&M University College Station.
Peter Suedfeld Bio
Peter Suedfeld is Dean Emeritus of Graduate Studies and Professor Emeritus of Psychology at The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, B.C., Canada. He was born in Hungary, has served in the U.S. Army and the Air Force Reserve, and holds dual Canadian and U.S. citizenship. His research interests span personality, social, cognitive, environmental, and political psychology, with emphasis on human cognitive processes, emotional and motivational reactions, and resilience during and after challenging events including high-level political decision-making. His more than 300 publications are based on laboratory experiments, field studies, questionnaire and interview studies, and content analyses of a wide variety of texts. He is an Officer of the Order of Canada, and has also received the Canadian Polar Medal, Queen Elizabeth II’s Diamond Jubilee Medal, and the U.S. Antarctica Service Medal. He is a Fellow of the Royal Society of Canada, the Royal Canadian Geographical Society, and the American and Canadian Psychological Associations, among other scientific societies.
Mr. Brad Morrison
Bradford H. Morrison is a Research Co-ordinator at the REST Lab at the University of British Columbia (UBC). He has an MA in political science from McGill University, and is in the PhD program in psychology at UBC. He specializes in the study of cognitive complexity and political psychology, especially the decision-making of political leaders during crises, and the psychology of violent extremism. He has contributed to several papers for the SMA, including a previous paper on the cognitive complexity and motivations of the political and military leaders of the People’s Republic of China.
Ms. Lindsy Grunert
Lindsy Grunert joined the REST Lab at the University of British Columbia in 2011 as a Research Assistant. She has contributed to an array of political psychology projects on the topics of violent extremist organizations and political leaders. This is her first co-ordination effort for a SMA project. She has a BA in political science from UBC, and a MA in security and defense management and policy from the Royal Military College of Canada.
Dr. Maorong Jiang
Dr. Maorong Jiang is an Associate Professor of Political Science and International Relations and Director of the Asian World Center at Creighton University. After his graduate studies at the Beijing Foreign Affairs College, he taught international relations as a regular faculty member at the Military College of International Relations in China.
Jiang remained as active duty PLA officer from 1979 until he transferred to the Central Government in Beijing in 1989. Jiang was selected as a young government official by the US State Department to participate in the International Visitors Leadership Program (IVLP) in 1990 and served as a visiting fellow at the University of Hawaii at Manoa for three years. Since coming to the U.S. for his doctoral studies in 1996, Jiang’s counsel has been sought by several government agencies interested in engagement with both China and North Korea. From 2014 through 2016, Jiang served as one of the five supervisors in the US Midwest responsible for the Japan Foundation Outreach Initiative Project and was selected by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan to participate in its “Building a Multi-layered Network of Influential Figures” program in 2016. Jiang currently serves as a member of the U.S. Strategic Command Deterrence and Assurance Academic Alliance. Jiang’s publications and public presentations are mainly on security issues in general, and on US-China and US-DPRK relations in particular.
