This report suggests potential types of actions and messages most likely to influence and deter Bashar al-Assad from using force in the ongoing Syrian civil war. This study is based on multidisciplinary discourse analyses of Bashar al-Assad’s speeches, and how he reacts to real events and verbal messages from external sources.

This report suggests potential types of actions and messages most likely to influence and deter Bashar al-Assad from using force in the ongoing Syrian civil war. This study is based on multidisciplinary analyses of Bashar al-Assad’s speeches, and how he reacts to real events and verbal messages from external sources.

A corpus of Vladimir Putin’s speeches was drawn from his official Kremlin website. The corpus was examined using semi-automated discourse analysis to gauge Putin’s concerns with space and how these are articulated with general political and cultural issues. The primary findings from the discourse are presented as Putin’s perspectives and worldview with respect to the space domain and general themes.

A collection of Kim Jong Un’s speeches from 2012 to 2017, translated and published online by the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) were examined using semi-automated discourse analysis to gauge Kim Jong Un’s concerns in the space domain and how these concerns are articulated with general political and cultural themes. The primary findings from the discourse are presented as the DPRK’s (i.e., Kim Jong Un’s) perspectives and worldview with respect to the space domain and general themes.

Corpora from three sources were examined using semi-automated discourse analysis to gauge the Chinese government’s concerns in the space domain and how these interests are articulated with general political and cultural issues. The sources were releases from the Chinese MOFA (Ministry of Foreign Affairs) (2011 – 2017), stories reported by CPC (Communist Party of China) News (2013 – 2014), and two months of speeches by Chinese president Xi Jinping (2014). The primary findings from the discourse are presented as Chinese perspectives and worldview with respect to the space domain and general themes.

This study examined Egyptian, Russian, and Chinese media perspectives of the Egyptian economy to determine to what extent a future economic crisis in Egypt is probable, and identification of which great powers would most likely lead bailout efforts should an economic crisis unfold. To answer these questions, researchers employed a mixed-method approach analyzing over 500 news articles from the past five years from 18 different Egyptian, Chinese, and Russian native language news sites.

In order to gain a quantified, evidence-based picture of decision-making tendencies of Chinese industrial, technical, economic, and political leaders, the UBC research group assessed the integrative complexity and motivational hierarchy of high-level figures in government and (ostensibly) private enterprise.

The UBC research group assessed psychological processes of six DPRK leaders, including Kim Jong-un, using thematic content analysis for integrative complexity and motive imagery, and Profiler Plus® computer-scored measures of Belief in Ability to Control Events (BACE), Distrust, and Self-Confidence. Despite some individual differences, in general the leaders were low in complexity, higher in power motivation than other motives, and high in BACE and distrust. This pattern indicates closed-mindedness, rigid thinking and planning, lack of perceptiveness in considering or trusting outsiders’ viewpoints and goals, a need for rapid and definite closure, and low probability of negotiating mutual concessions or flexibility in interaction. When under increased tension, the DPRK leaders’ profiles showed even higher distrust and need for power, somewhat increased affiliation need, and reduced motivation for achievement. These patterns indicate a low likelihood of significant changes of basic beliefs, motives, and strategies, despite possible overt assertions of such changes.

This publication was released as part of SMA’s Strategic Outcomes in the Korean Peninsula project. For more information regarding this project, please click here.

The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) does not currently constitute a strategic threat via inter-continental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) to German-Speaking and East Central Europe (GS-ECE), to the States of the European Union (EU), or to non-EU European States. Proven and potential cyber threats do exist, however, as does the proven threat of traditional espionage.

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Skye Cooley (Oklahoma State University) as a part of its SMA DHS CAOE Speaker Series. During his presentation, Dr. Cooley discussed his and his colleague, Dr. Robert Hinck’s (Monmouth College), research, which uses Northern Triangle media perspectives on migration as a reference point to contextualize larger system disruptions taking place within Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador. He then stated that contextualizing decisions is imperative. In other words, making sense of outside perspectives and interdependencies is critical to taking sensible actions. Moreover, considering context can also help one address the problems presented by so-called “gray rhinos,” rather than continually neglecting them until they collide with their victims (in this case, US decision makers). Dr. Cooley explained that institutions and contextual structuring allows individuals to co-create meaning and identity. Furthermore, the stability of the structures around individuals allow them to create meaning and community with one another. However, individuals’ actions inform others of who they are only when they can make sense of them via a common reference point, and if social institutions disintegrate, so does one’s understanding of others. Dr. Cooley then discussed his and Dr. Hinck’s research on the violence that is eroding the social institutions of Northern Triangle nations and, more specifically, the mass scale migration that has resulted from this violence. He further explained that migration itself serves as a useful common reference point because it highlights relational interdependencies, commonalities, and contrasts across the region. To conduct their research, Dr. Cooley and Dr. Hinck used narrative analysis as a tool of contextualization and examined 199 articles from ten news sources coming from Northern Triangle nations. Dr. Cooley presented the team’s findings regarding violence, institutional failures, incentives for migration, the role of the US, and consequences and solutions. To conclude, he advised that US decision makers develop regional solutions; clarify US positions in relation to the region; consider a multi-pronged, multi-staged approach rather than an iron-fist approach; combat corruption; and offer economic lifelines.

This SMA CENTCOM (Afghanistan) panel reviewed findings from research examining stability, reconciliation, and reintegration in Afghanistan. Dr. Cooley analyzed Chinese, Russian, and Iranian media to gauge their orientation toward potential reconciliation scenarios.

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Monica Rankin (University of Texas at Dallas) and Dr. Vincent Ng (University of Texas at Dallas) as a part of its SMA General Speaker Series.

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Kristina Lerman (University of Southern California [USC] Information Sciences Institute [ISI]) as a part of its SMA DHS Speaker Series. Dr. Lerman spoke about her research, which examines the role of political ideology and social bots on Twitter during the 2016 US election and distinguishes which users may be susceptible to manipulation. She and her team collected millions of tweets between 15 September and 9 November 2016 and identified which troll accounts generated the most tweets and which media outlets liberals and conservatives retweeted. Dr. Lerman identified the topics that were most frequently discussed among liberal and conservative users, distinct characteristics of the most prolific spreaders of various tweets, and where the majority of tweets about the election originated from. To conclude the session, Dr. Lerman provided insights as to what variables are most important to consider when successfully predicting spreaders and what lessons were learned as a result of this research.

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Skye Cooley (Oklahoma State University) and Dr. Robert Hinck (Monmouth College) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM (Afghanistan) Speaker Series. As part of the CENTCOM Reach Back effort, Dr. Cooley and Dr. Hinck identified what major narratives about Afghanistan are being disseminated to targeted populations through public media coverage. Dr. Cooley discussed his primary findings after assessing Russian news media content regarding stability efforts in Afghanistan, while Dr. Hinck presented his insights gained while looking at Chinese news media content. They outlined the three principle thematic narratives propagated in each country and explained what Russian and Chinese media think about a potential “grand bargain” in Afghanistan. They also called attention to their most significant take-away, which was that there was both a lack of firmly-established strategic narratives and an infrequency of media coverage on the subject.

Security and privacy aren’t dichotomous or conflicting concerns—the solution lies in developing and integrating advanced information technologies for counterterrorism along with privacy-protection technologies to safeguard civil liberties. Coordinated policies can help bind the two to their intended use.

This book explores both counter-terrorism and enabling policy dimensions of emerging information technologies in national security.

September 11, 2001 might have been just another day if the U.S. intelligence agencies had been better equipped with information technology, according to the report of Congress’s Joint Inquiry into the events leading up to the Sept. 11 attacks.