"Stability, Reconciliation & Reintegration: Research Findings" Panel Discussion

Stability, Reconciliation & Reintegration: Research Findings – Panel Discussion

Speakers: Dr. Skye Cooley (Oklahoma State University); Dr. Lawrence Kuznar (NSI, Inc.); Dr. Belinda Bragg (NSI, Inc.); Dr. John Stevenson (NSI, Inc.); Dr. Plamen Petrov (BBN Technologies, Raytheon); Dr. Karin Johnston (U.S. Department of State, Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization Operations); Mr. Sher Jan Ahmadzai (University of Nebraska at Omaha)

Date: 15 February 2019

This SMA CENTCOM (Afghanistan) panel reviewed findings from research examining stability, reconciliation, and reintegration in Afghanistan. Dr. Cooley analyzed Chinese, Russian, and Iranian media to gauge their orientation toward potential reconciliation scenarios. Dr. Kuznar identified numerous barriers—and few drivers—to reconciliation, and assessed Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan as a political pragmatist unlikely to push for a settlement. Dr. Bragg explored the role of Afghanistan’s gray economy in sustaining stability, while Dr. Stevenson evaluated regional actors’ interest, resolve, and capability, finding limited likelihood of a negotiated settlement under current conditions. Dr. Petrov discussed DARPA’s Causal Exploration work. Dr. Johnston summarized recent State Department findings on disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration efforts, and Mr. Ahmadzai examined debates over constitutional and structural reforms as prerequisites for peace.

Note: Dr. Plamen Petrov’s remarks were omitted from the public audio file. The full recording is available by request from SMA.