POC: For inquiries regarding this work, please contact Dr. Allison Astorino-Courtois(aastorino@nsiteam.com)

ProjectTeam: Allison Astorino-Courtois, Ph.D.; Belinda Bragg, Ph.D.; Sarah Canna;Gianna Courtois; Nathan Heath; Samuel Henkin, Ph.D.; Eric Kuznar; Lawrence Kuznar, Ph.D., Katy Lindquist, Ph.D.; Nicole Omundson; Sabrina Pagano Polansky, Ph.D.; George Popp; Danielle Rasmussen; James Sundquist, Ph.D.; Mariah Yager

Description: NSI updated the Defense Analysis and Planning Support Environment (DAPSE) model, which was developed by SMA in 2007 for USSTRATCOM and USEUCOM to “establish a typology to aid deterrence planners in identifying information about an adversary needed to produce greatest confidence options for deterring the adversary from acting in contravention to U.S. national interests.” DAPSE is a framework for guiding planners and analysts through a systematic, subjective decision analysis-based analysis to identify deterrence levers by understanding an actors’ multi-dimensional decision calculus.

This effort is an overhaul of the original DAPSE to accommodate the realities of the current operational environment including:

•      the need to simultaneously influence multiple actors whose behavior may be motivated by different interests and agendas (the basic idea of tailoring deterrence);

•      a competitive environment in which both the United States and its opponents may employ non-military, non-security influence levers to achieve national security objectives (e.g., irregular warfare, gray zone activities); and

•      theNational Security Strategy requirement to employ integrated, cross-domain, whole-of-government, and ally and partner means to achieve decisive influence advantage.

DAPSE 2.0 broadens the scope of “integrated deterrence”—recasting deterrence (e.g.,preventing an actor from doing something by threat of cost imposition) as one of many influence approaches available to the United States, its allies, and its partners.