POC: For inquiries regarding this work, please contact Dr. Belinda Bragg (bbragg@nsiteam.com).  

Project Team: Allison Astorino-Courtois, Ph.D.; Belinda Bragg, Ph.D.; Sarah Canna; Nathan Heath; Eric Kuznar; Lawrence Kuznar, Ph.D., Nicole Omundson; Sabrina Pagano Polansky, Ph.D.; George Popp; Mariah Yager

Description: Using integrated state-of-the art information and communication theory combined with best practices from industry and governments (US/partners and adversaries), NSI conducted a net assessment of the strategic balances between the United States and its adversaries in their operations in the information environment (OIE). This net assessment event was part of an SMA effort to assess how the Joint Force can most effectively integrate information and influence into its activities across the competition-to-conflict continuum.

NSI leveraged contemporary scientific understanding of OIE to create a net assessment process that generated hypotheses regarding US and adversary OIE. These hypotheses were tested with experiments, computational models, and a tabletop exercise (TTX). The combination of background knowledge, hypotheses, and scientific testing produced the findings summarized in an integration report which concluded that the development and implementation of measures of effectiveness in the information environment (MOE[IO]) should be considered an evolutionary process. We cannot yet test and perfect (MOE[IO]s) in a simulator; human behavior is too complex, and too contingent on context, to be accurately captured in this way. We can, however, adapt and learn—“test in the wild,” assessing the causes of any mistakes or unexpected consequences, and modifying our actions accordingly.