POC: For inquiries regarding this work and to receive a copy of the associated report, please contact Sarah Canna (scanna@nsiteam.com).

Project Team: Allison Astorino-Courtois, Ph.D.; Belinda Bragg, Ph.D.; Sarah Canna; George Popp

‍Description: NSI employed its ViTTa expert elicitation methodology to provide a rich contextual understanding of Iranian actions in the broader Middle East for US Central Command (USCENTCOM). Discussions with over twenty leading experts in geopolitics and Iran yielded four open source papers. The first ViTTa report describes Iran’s state-sponsored criminal enterprise, with a focus on popular sentiment in Iran related to these activities. The second report explores how Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence unit strategically influences Iran. The third report digs deeply into how Russia and China are attempting to influence Iranian decision-making. The fourth report considers how COVID-19 pandemic has impacted regime stability in Iran.

A follow-on effort covered four additional topics, including 1) the primary drivers of internal instability in Iran, 2) considerations on the employment of ballistic missiles, 3) trends in Quds Force malfeasant activities outside the USCENTCOM AOR, and how the Abraham Accords have shaped Iranian activities across the globe.

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