SMA

Defining and Validating the Gray Zone Using ViTTa

Published:
2017
     |      Updated on
July 31, 2025

Author | Editor: Popp, G. (NSI, Inc).

The Defining The Gray Zone video discusses how the gray zone is a conceptual space between peace and war, where activities are typically ambiguous or cloud attribution and exceed the threshold of ordinary competition, yet intentionally fall below the level of large-scale direct military conflict. This video highlights work that NSI did in collaboration with the Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) office and the US Department of Defense to 1) define the gray zone and 2) validate the gray zone definition using NSI’s Virtual Think Tank (ViTTa) methodology. For access to the full ViTTa analysis on the characterization and conditions of the gray zone, please visit: ViTTa Assessment and Analysis of the Gray Zone.

NSI Contributors
George Popp
Senior Analyst
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Methodology
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