At the request of the Joint Staff, SMA initiated an effort in April 2018 to develop a sound understanding of plausible near-term strategic outcomes of executing US political-military options to counter or defeat Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) threats to US national interests, ally and partner interests, and regional stability.

SMA assumed the following hypothetical US objectives: 1) complete and verifiable denuclearization of the DPRK; 2) non-proliferation of nuclear weapons in the Indo-Pacific; 3) stable security situation in Northeast Asia and Western Pacific; 4) strong, stable diplomatic and economic relationships and institutions in the Western Pacific; and 5) US well-positioned as a regional leader as it relates to the other objectives. SMA assessed strategic political, security, and economic implications of executing political-military options and their implications for US objectives and influences in the Western Pacific and Northeast Asia region in the near-term (0-2 years), medium-term (3-7 years), and long-term (7+ years). SMA conducted a three-phase effort to meet the request. In Phase I, prior to June 2018, SMA prioritized seven questions to identify potential “redlines” or actions that might cause an escalation of tensions with the DPRK. In Phases II and III, SMA focused on near- and long-term strategic outcomes of US objectives.

Performers:

NSI, ICONS University of Maryland; TRADOC G-27 Operational Environmental Center; USAF/A9; USAF; Oklahoma State University; George Mason University; Monmouth College; Univ. of Alabama; Western Carolina University; Intelligent Biology; Joint Staff; Integral Mind

The following is the list of reports completed in support of this effort. Reports and events can be accessed via the links provided

*Reports without a link can be requested by emailing mariah.c.yager.ctr@mail.mil from a .mil or .gov email address.

Summary Reports by NSI:

• Part I: Key Findings
• Part 2: Key Questions as Answered by Individual Analytic Efforts*

Virtual Think Tank (ViTTa®) Reports by NSI:

• Is There a Win-Win Scenario for the Key Actors Concerned with the DPRK?
• Approaches and Measures to Stabilizing the Korean Peninsula
• Necessary Conditions for Achieving FFVD without Militarized Conflict
• Conditions Conducive to Enforcing a Non-Proliferation Regime in the Asia-Pacific Region
• How the US Can Work with Its Partners to Contest DPRK Operations
• Achieving a Stable Regional Order in the Asia Pacific: What Does the US Need and What Should It Not Negotiate Away
• Marketization of the North Korean Economy
• Key Interests in the Asia Pacific

Discourse Analyses by NSI and the Media Ecology and Strategic Analysis (MESA) Group:

• Narratives Before & After the 2018 North Korea-United States Summit: An Analysis of Chinese and Russian News Media Coverage of Events on the Korean Peninsula by the Media Ecology and Str
• Comparative Analysis of Kim Family Political Discourse by NSI

Modeling and Simulations by George Mason University, USAF/A-9, TRADOC G-27, and Integral Mind

• Appendix to SMA Final Report: Korea Strategic Outcome Pathways Analysis* by TRADOC G-27
• Korea Strategic Outcomes by George Mason University
• DPRK Cognitive Simulations/Physical Patterns* by Integral Mind

Other Performer Reports by NSI, Joint Staff, Intelligent Biology, and Western Carolina University

• Getting Messages Through: The Cognition of Influence with North Korea and East Asia by Intelligent Biology
• Western Pacific Regional Dynamics & North Korean Nuclear Status by NSI
• Assessment of Pathways to Collapse in the DPRK by NSI
• Negotiating with the Leaders of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea: Inferences from Thematic Content Analysis by University of British Columbia
• Assessment of Possible Reactions in German-Speaking and East Central Europe and the European Union (GS-ECE/EU) to Possible Strategic Outcomes in US-DPRK Relations by Western Carolina University
• Assessment of Previous Cycles of DPRK, International Information Interactions, and US* by Joint Staff

SMA held a speaker series to support the Korea Strategic Outcomes effort. Links to the recorded events, when available, are below:

• April 26, 2018: Michele Wucker (Gray Rhino & Company)- The Gray Rhino: China’s Response to Obvious Risks
• May 22, 2018: Dr. James Hoare (Chatham House/School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS) Centre of Korean Studies), Dr. John Nilsson-Wright (Cambridge University), Prof. Steve Tsang (SOAS China Institute), and Dr. Nicholas Wright (Intelligent Biology/Georgetown University)- Regional Perspectives on North Korean Scenarios
• May 31, 2018: Dr. Allison Astorino-Courtois (NSI), Dr. Larry Kuznar (NSI), Dr. Peter Suedfeld (University of British Columbia), and Dr. Nicholas Wright (Intelligent Biology / Georgetown University)- Insights into Kim Jong-Un’s Cognition Based on His Public Speeches
• June 5, 2018: Dr. Toby Dalton (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP)), Prof. Narushige Michishita (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS)), and Dr. Nicholas Wright (moderator, Intelligent Biology/Georgetown University)- Korea Regional Impacts
• June 8, 2018: Neil Sleevi (CGI Federal / USARMY TRADOC G2 Intelligence Support Activity)- The Athena Simulation: Modeling the Korea Region Social-Cultural Landscape
• June 14, 2018: Ken Gause (CAN International Affairs Group)- The Singapore Summit and Understanding North Korea’s Calculus
• June 19, 2018: Ariel Petrovics (University of California, Davis)- Nuclear (De)Proliferation: Intended vs. Inadvertent Policy Outcomes
• June 20, 2018: Prof. Narushige Michishita (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS))-Four Scenarios for the Korea Peninsula’s Formula
• June 26, 2018: Dr. David Dorondo (Western Carolina University)- Korea Strategic Outcomes: Implications for German-speaking and East-Central Europe (GS-ECE)
• August 3, 2018: John Lauder (Areté Associates)- Monitoring Nuclear Agreements with North Korea (and Iran and Russia): Applying Lessons from the Past to the new Digital Age
• August 9, 2018: Dr. Natasha Kuhrt (King’s College, London)- Russia and the DPRK-niche Diplomacy
• August 10, 2018: Andrea Berger (James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS)), Shea Cotton (CNS), and Cameron Trainer (CNS)- The Shadow Sector: North Korea’s Commercial IT Networks
• September 6, 2018: Brad Babson (Bowdoin College)- Overview of the North Korean Economy and Recent Developments
• September 13, 2018: David Maxwell (Foundation for Defense of Democracies)- Security Situation on the Korean Peninsula and the Way Ahead
• September 19, 2018: Elsa Kania (Center for a New American Security (CNAS))- A ‘New Era’ of Chinese Military Innovation- China’s ‘First Offset’ and Future Warfare
• November 2, 2018: Dr. Nicholas Wright (Intelligent Biology/Georgetown University)- Getting Messages Through: The Cognition of Influence with North Korea and East Asia
• November 8, 2018: Dr. Jongseok Woo (University of South Florida)- Normalizing the US-DPRK Relations: Nuclear Weapons and Political Changes in Pyongyang
• November 14, 2018: Dr. Larry Kuznar (NSI, Inc.)- Comparative Analysis of Kim Family Discourse
• November 20, 2018: Dr. Allison Astorino-Courtois (NSI, Inc.), Dr. Larry Kuznar (NSI, Inc.), Dr. Skye Cooley (Oklahoma State University), Dr. Stephen Blank (American Foreign Policy Council), Anthony Rinna (Sino-NK)- Strategic Outcomes on the Korean Peninsula: Effort Results and Primary Findings