Background: In early 2022, the Joint Staff J7 asked SMA to initiate an effort extending previous work by the Army Training and Doctrine Command’s (TRADOC) Global Cultural Knowledge Network (GCKN), “Exploitable Conditions Framework,” to 1) inform Combatant Commands’ and Services’ ability to compete successfully in the future strategic environment and 2) supplement ongoing investigations into strategic competition. The Anticipating the Future Operational Environment (AFOE) effort assessed the relationships among global challenges in which major power competition is likely to occur (e.g., revolutionary technology advances, shifting distributions of state power, globalization, climate change, global disease evolution, etc.) in the future operational environment. AFOE produced a theoretical and empirical foundation for understanding the multiple facets of, as well as both the direct and indirect relationships among, conditions in the competitive space —a foundation that is the indispensable basis for successful planning and operations in the strategic environment.

In AFOE phases I and II, SMA first built a global, system-of-systems model—the Global Exploitable Conditions model (GECM)—that reflects the interdependencies among the broad and diverse set of social, political, economic, environmental, technological, and human factors that characterize the current and future operational environment. Then in Phase II, the generic GECM served as the foundation for the AFRICOM Exploitable Conditions Model (AECM)—a model of the operational environment tailored specifically to U.S. Africa Command’s (USAFRICOM) area of responsibility (AOR).

Phase III

AFOE Phase III turns to more advanced applications, refinement, and transition of the AECM, with a substantive focus on understanding the effects of climate on stability in the USAFRICOM AOR.

The following is the list of reports completed in support of this effort. Reports and events can be accessed via the links provided.

*Reports without a link can be requested by emailing mariah.c.yager.ctr@mail.mil from a .mil or .gov email address or visit the SMA NIPR Inteldocs site (CAC-enabled).

Reports

West Africa Exploitable Conditions Model by NSI

Quick Look Reports by NSI

Quick Looks are short, highly-visual, unclassified research reports based on the AECM that reflect a portion of the Phase III research findings using smaller sub-systems of the model to examine key topics.

• Climate-Security Nexus Background
• Food Security & Climate Change
• Floods & Climate Change
• Urbanization & Climate Change

*Reports without a link can be requested by emailing mariah.c.yager.ctr@mail.mil from a .mil or .gov email address or visit the SMA NIPR Inteldocs site (CAC-enabled).

SMA held the Climate Effects & National Security speaker series to support the AFOE Phase III effort. Links to the recorded events, when available, are below:

• 4 April 2024: Dr. Samuel Henkin (NSI) – A Climate of Insecurity? Exploring the Nexus of Climate Change and National Security
• 9 May 2024: Dr. Michelle Miro, Dr. Flannery Dolan, Karen Sudkamp, & Jeffrey Martini (RAND) – A Hotter and Drier Future Ahead – An Assessment of Climate Change in U.S. Central Command
• 18 July 2024: Adam Forbes (United Nations Development Programme) – Climate, Peace, and Security in Latin America and the Caribbean – A Perspective from UNDP
• 21 August 2024: Madeline Romm (National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START), University of Maryland)) – Climate Change as an Indirect Contributor to Terrorism
• 3 October 2024: Ameya Kelkar (Centre for Land Warfare Studies) – Climate Change and Food Security in the Indo-Pacific: Challenges and Opportunities
• 15 October 2024: Dr. Tim Clack (University of Oxford), Lieutenant General (Ret) Richard Nugee (British Army), Ella Fleming (UK Defence Science Technology Laboratory) – How Climate Change Impacts Security and Conflict Worldwide
• 15 January 2025: Andrew Gilmour Security Risks of Climate Action
• 12 February 2025: Thammy Evans & Gary Lewis Ecological Security: Military or Civil Duty?