At the request of the Deputy Commander of U.S. Strategic Command and U.S. European Command, SMA initiated a study to evaluate current deterrence frameworks, their shortfalls in today’s environment, and potential alternative deterrence constructs to address the growing number of challenges to deterrence. These challenges include but are not limited to:

• nuclear and non-nuclear strategic threats;
• extended and hybrid deterrence;
• ambiguity in strategic deterrence;
• nuclear coercion;
• changing international norms;
• deterrence in lower-intensity and tactical conflict; and
• deterrence in a multi-peer operational environment.

Project Overview

The project plan breaks the study into four lines of effort (LOEs):

1. identify gaps or shortfalls in existing deterrence theories;
2. propose revised concepts that address these shortfalls;
3. update the Deterrence Analysis and Planning Support Environment (DAPSE) model to be relevant for today’s multipolar deterrence problem set; and
4. explore how to enhance integrated deterrence in the European theater.

Figure 1 Project Plan Updated July 2024 In the project plan outlined above, each LOE begins with a series of research efforts followed by a culminating event. LOEs 1 and 2 were brought together in a three-day net assessment event. LOE 3 applied DAPSE to a U.S. Forces Korea use case, which was briefed in April 2024.

The following is the list of reports completed in support of this effort. Reports and events can be accessed via the links provided.

*Reports without a link can be requested by emailing mariah.c.yager.ctr@mail.mil from a .mil or .gov email address or visit the SMA NIPR Inteldocs site (CAC-enabled).

LOE 1: Identifying Gaps by NSI

• NATO Strategic Foresight Analysis, Drivers of a Pervasive Competition Dr. Gergely Nemeth, NATO Allied Command Transformation
• Emerging Chem-bio (and Neuro-cognitive) and Data/Computational Science Capabilities and Threats by Dr. James Giordano (Georgetown University Medical Center)
• United States Deterrence Policy: 1944-Present by Oklahoma State University
• Ally and Partner Perspectives
• Competitor Perspectives
  • Russian Strategic Deterrence Frameworks Dr. Graeme Herd (Marshall European Center for Security Studies)
  • Chinese Strategic Deterrence Frameworks Dr. James Sundquist (Yale University)
• Multi-disciplinary Perspectives
• Conceptualizing the Deterrence of Terrorism in the Era of Strategic Competition Dr. Steve Sin (University of Maryland)
• Deterrence & Space Warfare Dr. John Klein (Delta Solutions & Strategies, LLC)
• Irregular Warfare Derrek Jones (Valens Global)
• Deterrence Effects of Policing Programs Dr. Kathleen Kiernan (Kiernan Group)
• Perceptual Deterrence by Dr. Tom Tyler (Yale University)
• Social Psychology
• Measuring Policy Effectiveness of Cyber Deterrence and Defensibility Dr. Jason Healey (Columbia University)
• Considering How and Why Deterrence Works in Public Health Dr. Kristina Talbert-Slagle (Yale University)

LOE 2: Toward Filling Gaps by NSI

• An Alternative Concept for Assessing Deterrence
• Tri-polar Deterrence Dr. Frank Zagare (University of Buffalo)
• Deterrence Among Three to Twelve Nuclear Powers: Fundamental Instability and Mitigation Strategy Dr. Claudio Cioffi-Revilla
• SMA Perspectives Paper: Avoiding Self-deterrence in the Context of Nuclear Ambiguity
• Ambiguity in Nuclear Deterrence Strategy
• Evolution of Deterrence Thinking in the USSR and Russia: A Look Through Military Reports by Oklahoma State University
• Assuring the Republic of Korea: Solutions for US Strategic Command
• Safely balancing a double-edged blade: identifying and mitigating emerging biosecurity risks in precision medicine Dr. James Giordano (Georgetown University)
• Concessions to the Limited Powers: Considerations of Low-Yield Nuclear Weapons, Asymmetrical Capability, and Extended Deterrence by Bob Williams (Georgetown University) & Dr. James Giordano (Georgetown University Medical Center)
• Moloch, the Meta-crisis, and Integrated Nuclear Deterrence Oklahoma State University
• Russian Nuclear Rhetoric, 2014-2023: Transatlantic Differences in Threat Perception by Egle Murauskaite (University of Maryland)
• Key Factors in Crisis Escalation y Egle Murauskaite (University of Maryland)
• Escalation Management in the Early Stages of International Crises by Dr. Kyle Beardsley (Duke University), Dr. Jonathan Wilkenfeld (START University of Maryland), & Phuong Pham (Duke University
• Strategic Culture Literature Review by Dr. Larry Kuznar (NSI)
• Who Will They–and We–Be on Day 30 or Day 1000 in Deterrence?
• Russian Leadership Value and Regional Goals in the Arctic by Dr. Tomas Ries (Swedish National College)
• A Convincing Finnish Move: Implications for State Identity of Persuading Sweden to Jointly Bid for NATO Membership by Stefan Lundqvist (Swedish Defence University)
• The Limits of Deterrence in the Context of Transformation in Northern Europe
• A Chronology of the Science of Nuclear Winder Research, 1920-2023, in the Context of Nuclear Deterrence Theory
• Deterrence as Ouroboros– Why Nuclear Winter Matters
• International Collaboration in U.S. Integrated Deterrence: A Partner Perspective by LTG (Ret) Dr. Dennis Gyllensporre & MG (Ret) Bengt Svensson (Swedish Defence University)
• Net Assessment
• Integration Report

LOE 3: Enhance Deterrence Planning by NSI

• Updating the DAPSE Model
• DAPSE Design Interviews

LOE 4: Integrated Deterrence by, with, and through Allies and Partners by NSI

• Integrated Deterrence Reachback Study by Dr. Sabrina Polansky (NSI)

Invited Perspectives

• Miniaturization as Grail in the Third Nuclear Age
• Why Are We Integrating Now—and How Can We Integrate Better?

SMA held a speaker series to support the SDF effort.

Links to the recorded events, when available, are below:

• 18 January, 2023: Dr. Samuel Charap (RAND), & Dr. Andrew Stravers (RAND) – Understanding Russian Coercive Signaling
• 23 February, 2023: Mr. Dean Cheng (Potomac Institute for Policy Studies) & Dr. John Klein (Falcon Research, Inc) – Outcompeting China in Space: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Integrated Deterrence
• 14 March, 2023: Mr. Dave Katz (USSOCOM) – Cooperation, Competition & Conflict: JADE SPEAR, China, and New Strategic Art
• 12 April, 2023: Dr. Iain Johnston (Harvard University) – Caveat Emptor: The Pros and Cons of Strategic Culture as an Analytical Concept
• 19 April, 2023: Dr. Thomas Drohan (Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies) – Combined-Effects Competition & Warfare: Strategies from China and Russia
• 25 April, 2023: Ms. Egle Murauskaite & Mr. Devin Ellis (University of Maryland ICONS/START) – Escalation Management in International Conflict: The United States and its Adversaries
• 10 May, 2023: Dr. Richard Harknett (University of Cincinnati) – How Strategy Must Align to Strategic Environments: Deterrence and Initiative Persistence
• 23 May, 2023: Dr. Michael Fischerkeller (IDA) – Cyber Persistence and National Security
• 8 June, 2023: Dr. Justin Anderson (National Defense University) – Using a Nuclear Security & Nonproliferation Approach to Reduce US-PRC Escalation Risks in a DPRK Collapse Scenario
• 13 June, 2023: Ms. Krista Langeland (RAND) – Building a Strategic Framework for Tailored Deterrence of China in Space
• 21 June, 2023: Dr. Bradford Roberts (Center for Global Security, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory) – China’s Emergence as a Second Nuclear Peer: Implications for US Nuclear Deterrence
• 11 July, 2023: Mr. Collin Meisel (Stimson Center), Mr. Caleb Petry (Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures), Dr. Jonathan Moyer (University of Denver, Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures), & Dr. Matthew Burrows (Stimson Center) – Spheres of Influence in the Coming Decades: Four Alternative Scenarios
• 19 July, 2023: Dr. Dmitry Adamsky (Reichman University) – Russian Nuclear Orthodoxy: Religion, Coercion and the Russian Way of War
• 29 August, 2023: Dr. Thomas Drohan (Brig Gen (Ret)), Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies – Concepts of Influence Beyond Punishment and Denial: A Combined Effect Analysis of China, Russia, and Iran
• 5 September, 2023: Mr. Keir Giles (Chatham House) – Russian nuclear intimidation: How Russia uses nuclear threats to shape Western responses to aggression
• 6 September, 2023: Dr. Keir Lieber (Georgetown University) & Dr. Daryl Press (Dartmouth) – US Strategy and Force Posture for an Era of Nuclear Tripolarity
• 28 September, 2023: Dr. Rose McDermott (Brown University) & Dr. Paul Slovic (University of Oregon) – Putin and the Psychology of Nuclear Brinkmanship
• 11 October, 2023: LTC Nathan Colvin (US Army) – Putin and Putnam: The Unethical Rationality of Vladimir Putin Viewed Through a Game Theory Perspective
• 17 October, 2023: Thomas Shattuck (Perry World House, University of Pennsylvania) – The Future of Nuclear Weapons, Statecraft, and Deterrence After Ukraine
• 25 October, 2023: Dr. James Johnson (University of Aberdeen) – AI and the Bomb
• 26 October, 2023: Dr. Markus Garlauskas (Indo-Pacific Security Initiative of the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, Atlantic Council) – Deterring the Risks of Simultaneous Conflict and Limited Nuclear Attacks in East Asia
• 5 December, 2023: James Siebens (Stimson Center) – China’s Use of Armed Coercion: To Win Without Fighting
• 12 December, 2023: Professor Malcom Chalmers (RUSI) & Dr. Bruno Tertrais (Foundation for Strategic Research) – British and French Nuclear Thinking in the ‘Three Body Problem’ Era
• 14 December, 2023: Dr. Anna Péczeli (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory) – How do Non-State Entities Taking Actions in a Crisis or Conflict Impact Escalation and Deterrence?
• 9 January, 2024: COL Brian Davis (USFK) – Constructing Killwebs for Effects Based Targeting in Multi-Domain Operations
• 16 January, 2024: Dr. Krista Langeland (RAND) & Mr. Clinton Reach – Building U.S. Responses to Russia’s Threats to Use Nonstrategic Nuclear Weapons: A Game Theoretic Analysis of Brinksmanship
• 23 January, 2024: Dr. Dmitry Adamsky (Reichman University) – The Russian Way of Deterrence: Strategic Culture, Coercion, and War
• 8 February, 2024: Mr. Markus Garlauskas (Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, Atlantic Council) & Dr. Lauren Sukin (The London School of Economics and Political Science) – North Korea in Regional—and Global—Multi-body Nuclear Strategy
• 14 February, 2024: Dr. Gergely Nemeth (NATO Supreme Allied Command Transformation) – NATO Strategic Foresight Analysis, Drivers of a Pervasive Competition
• 20 February, 2024: Dr. Maximilian Hoell (LLNL) – Extended Deterrence Across the Continuum of Conflict
• 28 March, 2024: Jason Healey (Columbia University’s International an) – Measuring Policy Effectiveness of Cyber Deterrence and Defensibility
• 17 April, 2024: Dr. Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Nicholas Lokker, & Heli Hautala (Center for a New American Security) & Michael Kofman (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) – Assessing the Evolving Russian Nuclear Threat
• 14 May, 2024: Ms. Amy Woolf (Atlantic Council) – Arms Control Opportunities in the Emerging Two-nuclear-peer Environment
• 24 October 2024: Dynamic Parity: The Nuclear Strategy We Need by Dr. Adam Lowther and Curtis McGiffin
• 13 November 2024: U.S. Military Theories of Victory for a War with the People’s Republic of China by Jacob Heim (RAND) & Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga (RAND)
• 19 November 2024: Strategic Culture – A Complex Model for a Complex Concept by Dr. Lawrence Kuznar (NSI)
• 16 January 2025: Deterrence and escalation maneuver in a two-peer environment: Developing a new escalation management strategy for the United States Dr. Anna Péczeli (Center for Global Security Research at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory)
• 10 January 2025: Russian Leadership Values and Regional Goals in the Arctic by Dr. Tomas Ries (National Defence College, Stockholm, Sweden)