Characteristics of Successful Military Interventions
“Characteristics of Successful Military Interventions”
Speakers: Frederick, B. (RAND); Kavanagh, J. (RAND)
Date: 27 June 2019
Speaker Session Preview
SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Jennifer Kavanagh (RAND) and Dr. Bryan Frederick (RAND) as a part of its SMA General Speaker Series. During their presentation, Dr. Frederick and Dr. Kavanagh presented their research, which synthesizes the results of multiple RAND Arroyo projects that focus on the characteristics of successful military interventions. Their research focused on three areas: 1) background (Where and when has the US historically intervened? On what scale?), 2) determinants of success (What objectives has the US pursued? How successful have interventions been? What factors influence the likelihood of success?), and 3) operational requirements (How quickly do forces need to be prepared to deploy in interventions? How has deployment duration matched expectations?). Dr. Kavanagh and Dr. Frederick reviewed US military interventions using both case studies and statistical models in their research. Their study looked at the number of interventions by region, as well as the size of interventions by type (i.e., combat intervention, stabilization and irregular warfare, and deterrent interventions). It also identified the key leading indicators of US interventions. For instance, according to the study, a close relationship with the US implies that the US would be much more likely to engage in a large scale intervention in a deterrence scenario; however, it is more likely to engage in a small scale intervention when it comes to an armed conflict or stability operation scenario. The team also analyzed political objectives and the degree of success. Narrow, in-country objectives were successfully achieved most frequently, while regional, broad objectives were successfully achieved least frequently. Furthermore, since the Cold War, clear successes have been somewhat rarer, especially for regional objectives, but mission goals have also typically become more expansive. To conclude, Dr. Kavanagh and Dr. Frederick made five main recommendations: 1) match intervention strategy with objectives; 2) ensure sufficient force size for relevant objectives; 3) pre-intervention planning should be comprehensive; 4) closely scrutinize possible role of third parties; and 5) extending an intervention, without some other change in strategy, should not be assumed to increase chances of successfully achieving objectives.
Speaker Session Audio File
To access a recording of this session, please email Ms. Nicole Omundson (nomundson@nsiteam.com).
Speaker Bios
Jennifer Kavanagh
Jennifer Kavanagh is a senior political scientist and Director of Arroyo’s Strategy, Doctrine, and Resources Program. Her work focuses on U.S. military interventions, including factors that influence U.S. decisions to intervene and the characteristics that make interventions more or less successful, and U.S. force posture. She also studies military readiness and training, and gender in the military, particularly the integration of women into positions previously closed to them. Outside of her work for the U.S. Army, Jennifer leads RAND’s Countering Truth Decay initiative, a portfolio of projects exploring the diminishing reliance on facts and analysis in U.S. political and civil discourse. Jennifer is a faculty member at the Pardee RAND Graduate School and teaches research methods courses as an adjunct professor at Georgetown University. While completing her Ph.D., she was a Department of Homeland Security fellow and completed a research internship at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. Kavanagh graduated from Harvard University with a B.A. in government and a minor in Russian language. She earned her Ph.D. in political science and public policy at the University of Michigan.
Bryan Frederick
Bryan Frederick is a political scientist at the RAND Corporation. His research interests include conflict forecasting, military interventions, deterrence, strategic competition, territorial disputes, conflict management and escalation, the law of armed conflict, and regional security issues in Europe, the Middle East, and South and East Asia. He has previously worked at the International Crisis Group, and the Issue Correlates of War Project. He completed his Ph.D. and M.A. in International Relations at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) and his B.A. in Philosophy from Williams College.
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