Deterrence and Defense Strategy: Old Lessons and New Contexts
Speaker(s): Malkasian, C. (CNA)
Date: 3 November 2021
Speaker Session Summary
SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Carter Malkasian (CNA) as part of its SMA STRATCOM Academic Alliance Speaker Session.
New academic studies focusing on multipolar nuclear deterrence are necessary to understand how posturing and brinksmanship by actors can deter a potential conflict or lead to impending nuclear disaster. Dr. Malkasian commented that methodologies used in war gaming exercises can be used to predict the outcome of real-world conflicts. However, these simulations tend to leave out some nuanced factors, such as the actual resolve and risk acceptance of individual leaders. For example, the risk acceptance and the brinksmanship of actors can result in unintended consequences and an escalation to military conflict. However, it was pointed out that traditional military conflict is unlikely to occur between two nuclear powers.
To avoid a conflict, actors must be careful not to cross tripwires, or actions that cross a metaphorical boundary constructed by their adversary and forces them to engage in a military conflict. State leaders may also be forced to commit an action because their constituents expect it. This is referred to as an audience cost. Also, states can commit actions that take varying degrees of effort or cost that send signals which either escalate or de-escalate a conflict. Guessing a leader’s true intentions is sometimes difficult. However, if they undertake an action which is costly, then they are rarely bluffing. These signals could be economic, political, or military actions. Dr. Malkasian concluded his presentation by suggesting the US should not avoid sending costly signals. This is because actions are the strongest drivers of both escalation and de-escalation of conflicts.
Note: We are aware that many government IT providers have blocked access to YouTube from government machines during the pandemic in response to bandwidth limitations. We recommend viewing the recording on YouTube from a non-government computer or listening to the audio file (below), if you are in this position.
Dr Carter Malkasian was the special assistant for strategy to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Joseph Dunford from 2015 to 2019. He has extensive experience working in conflict zones and has published several books.
As the special assistant for strategy for General Dunford, Dr Malkasian held a broad portfolio. He accompanied General Dunford on travel, including to China, India, Turkey, Singapore, the Philippines, Iraq, and Afghanistan. In Washington, he helped prepare the Chairman for national security council meetings and meetings with the President. He was involved in the national military strategy (NMS), analysis behind the nuclear posture review, counter-ISIS strategy, war planning, management of the 2017–2018 North Korea crisis, and strategy during the series of crises with Russia in Syria.
Dr Malkasian currently works at the Center for Naval Analyses (CNA),where he has conducted studies on air strike campaigns, COVID-19 anddefense strategy, and force design. His books include The Korean War, 1950-1953 and A History of Modern Wars of Attrition. He teaches a course on modern warfare at Johns Hopkins University. His newest book is The American War in Afghanistan: A History. Dr. Malkasian received his undergraduate degree from the University ofCalifornia, Berkeley and completed his doctorate in history at OxfordUniversity.
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