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SMA Publications (Tagged: North America)

SMA Publication

The Shape of the Future Operating Environment: How Our Adversaries Have Learned to Stop Worrying and Ignore the Bomb

The report is organized around these three overarching concepts – state interest, perceived threats and opportunities, and international activities. The introduction details a theoretical background for each, and explains how, together, they offer a general framework for understanding the choices and behaviors of states in the international system. The concepts implicit in these two questions are complex and interdependent – requiring bounding choices. To stay within the scope of this project while providing a comprehensive mapping of the problem space, we have chosen to provide a high-level overview and comparison of all four states. For readers seeking a deeper dive into specific aspects of these questions for individual states, the reference section at the end of the report includes links to other SMA work with this level of detail. In this report we focus on how understanding these concepts provides a framework for expanding our understanding of deterrence strategy to account for the multi-domain as well as multi-actor nature of contemporary deterrence.
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

Ensuring an Agile and Strong USG

Question (LR5): Given the generational nature of the threats we face, what changes in organization, legislation, authorities, resources, infrastructure, education, and other areas should the USG make to become as agile, resilient, survivable, sustainable, technologically and intellectually dominant as required to protect our constitutional system and prevail in any conflict from the present until 2050?
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Deterrence Among Three to Twelve Nuclear Powers: Fundamental Instability and Mitigation Strategy

The fundamental instability of bilateral nuclear deterrence (Albert Wohlstetter’s “delicate balance of terror”) is mitigated, in part, by each adversary deploying and maintaining weapons systems that are capable of guaranteeing a second-strike after an adversary has launched a first-strike. Additionally, bilateral arms control measures (norms, treaties, protocols, institutions) provide additional stability. The problem with multicountry nuclear deterrence is that there are no levels of armaments that can support stable deterrence relations among three or more adversaries; except in cases when adversaries coalesce into two alliances, in which case the system reduces to bilateral nuclear deterrence. This paper approaches this problem through formal methods and conceptualizes a solution involving an ensemble of military and politico-diplomatic strategies which, when operating as an enhanced international security regime, can mitigate the fundamental instability of the current multicountry nuclear deterrence system.
Year Published:
2024
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SMA Publication

China’s Expansion into South Asia, Middle East and Africa

Perhaps unsurprisingly, all the contributors to this question devoted attention to the outsized role economics—and especially the quest for natural resources—plays in the Peoples Republic of China’s (PRC) relationships in the MENA region. In general, the consequentiality of this factor trends negative when assessed through the lenses of either a) US policy goals or b) global liberal economic norms. Chow, for example, characterizes the failure of the US to more aggressively push back on manipulative PRC trade practices as “carelessness” and “empty rhetoric.” He also sees a direct line between the perceived cave-in on Washington’s part and Beijing feeling empowered to seize the initiative in other areas detrimental to US interest, such as increased militarization and aggressive behavior in disputed territorial areas.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Whole of Government Approach to Conflict

Not many experts were willing to tackle this problem of synchronizing whole of government planning and execution processes across the Department of Defense (DOD) and the Department of State (DoS). While there seems to be a growing acceptance that greater cooperation between DOD and DoS is essential for responding to adversaries that act like complex adaptive systems, no single governmental organ which can, through its own effort, ensure that institutionalized planning and execution cooperation occurs regularly.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Strategic Risk in the Space Domain

This report summarizes the input of 15 insightful responses contributed by space experts from National Security Space, industry, academia, government, think tanks, and space law and policy communities. This input includes expert contributions from US voices as well as non-US voices from Australia, India, Italy, and the UK. While this summary response presents an overview of key subject matter expert contributor insights, the summary alone cannot fully convey the fine detail of the contributor inputs provided, each of which is worth reading in its entirety.
Year Published:
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SMA Publication

Multi-Step Approach Closing DOD's Cognitive Capability Gap

The Strategic Multi-Layer Assessment (SMA) team conducted a year-long project for USSOCOM on the growing prevalence of Competition Short of Armed Conflict (CSAC), or use of “Gray Zone” tactics by US adversaries. Key findings from the study include first, the immediate need to incorporate the “human / cognitive domain” into military planning to avoid the strategic surprise that gray zone tactics intend. Second, the study highlighted the current deficit in the joint force of operationally-applicable human / cognitive domain information and expertise. During its final project review, the study’s Senior Review Group (SRG) noted that “…the changing nature of conflict means that the US Department of Defense (DOD) needs to start changing the way it thinks as a whole, and the results of this SMA effort can play a valuable role” in broadening our understanding of the strategic and operational environment to incorporate the human/cognitive aspects of military operations. Reflecting on the deficit in US capabilities in the cognitive environment the SRG asked: “Who is going to craft the appropriate messages? Who is going to provide the necessary tools? Who is going to use these tools? These are questions that we need to answer.”
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Influence in an Age of Rising Connectedness

A strong argument can be made that we are moving toward a pluralized, multipolar world, in which military and economic sources of power are widely distributed. Technologies (e.g., the Internet and rapid means of mass migration) are making nation states increasingly more porous, and a resurgence of nationalism and other forms of ethnic or religious identity politics has solidified some states and weakened others. Given these properties of human development, the question remains as to how nations and societies position themselves to ride these revolutionary changes with some degree of confidence. The continuance of these factors may change the way that the US, its partners, and its adversaries consider and prioritize influence, both within the state and across interstate borders. The DOD is evolving in ways that demand a more synergistic approach than we have traditionally taken across the human and technical dimensions. To date, military operations have characteristically focused on compelling adversaries through the threat or application of force to achieve victory (i.e. “control”). Changing environmental factors, increased activism by non-state actors, technology, and recent lessons learned suggest that the DOD will be challenged to adopt revised, if not entirely new approaches, to affect and direct the outcomes of military operations. Toward such ends, the DOD will need to focus upon the factors and forces that exert the necessary influence to produce desired behavioral outcomes across complex and intermeshed human and technical systems.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

US-DiGIA: USG Discoverable Information Terrain

The United States currently faces a complex and dynamic security environment. States are no longer the only critical actors in the international arena; rather, a diverse range of non-state entities also has the potential to affect US interests and security—for good or bad. Economic influence, information control and propaganda, political influence, and social discontent can be and are being utilized by state and non-state actors alike to achieve their goals, in many cases bypassing the need for direct military action. In response, the US military is challenged to accomplish more, across a greater variety of domains, while facing a constrained budget environment. There are two central implications of this: first, many of the most intractable security problems the US faces require a whole of government approach. Second, in a complex and evolving international environment characterized by new and often ambiguous threats, information itself is a critical asset.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

10th Annual SMA Conference - From Control to Influence

The Strategic Multi-Layer Assessment (SMA) office hosted the 10th Annual SMA Conference on 25-26 April 2017 at Joint Base Andrews. This year’s conference, formally titled “From Control to Influence? A View of—and Vision for—the Future,” brought together a multidisciplinary group of participants to consider how the US and its allies can more effectively counter the influence that recently re-emerging, capable states (such as China and Russia) and non-state actors (such as ISIS) exert on their neighbors and/or third parties through multiple elements of power.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Part 5 The Various Sources of Extremism

This is Part 5 of a 9 part series of SMA Reach back responses to questions posed by USCENTCOM. Each report contains responses to multiple questions grouped by theme. At the request of United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), the Joint Staff, jointly with other elements in the JS, Services, and U.S. Government (USG) Agencies, has established a SMA virtual reach-back cell. This initiative, based on the SMA global network of scholars and area experts, is providing USCENTCOM with population based and regional expertise in support of ongoing operations in the Iraq/Syria region.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Part 7 USG Bureaucratic Requirements

This is Part 7 of a 9 part series of SMA Reach back responses to questions posed by USCENTCOM. Each report contains responses to multiple questions grouped by theme. At the request of United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), the Joint Staff, jointly with other elements in the JS, Services, and U.S. Government (USG) Agencies, has established a SMA virtual reach-back cell. This initiative, based on the SMA global network of scholars and area experts, is providing USCENTCOM with population based and regional expertise in support of ongoing operations in the Iraq/Syria region.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Part 1 A Compendium of Messaging Reports

This is Part 1 of a 9 part series of SMA Reach back responses to questions posed by USCENTCOM. Each report contains responses to multiple questions grouped by theme. At the request of United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), the Joint Staff, jointly with other elements in the JS, Services, and U.S. Government (USG) Agencies, has established a SMA virtual reach-back cell. This initiative, based on the SMA global network of scholars and area experts, is providing USCENTCOM with population based and regional expertise in support of ongoing operations in the Iraq/Syria region.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Regional Interests Analysis

Question (S2): In light of their divergent goals and interests, what are the necessary factors that would permit the U.S.-led Coalition, regional stakeholders (including Israel, Russia, and Iran), or jihadist groups to achieve their aims in Iraq? Where do disparate groups’ interests align and where do they diverge? What can the U.S. coalition do to deny adversaries the ability to achieve their goals?
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Coalition Activities and Terrorism

Question (S#1): What are the correlations between the US/coalition operational and tactical actions in theater effecting terrorist activity throughout the world (i.e., external events). For example, does the loss of ISIL controlled territory or kill/capture of an ISIL high value target lead to an increase/decrease in terrorist attacks in other areas of the world? Can location, intensity, duration or timing of attacks be predicted from a model?
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Reduce Recruiting of ISIL Fighters

This paper addresses the issue of ISIL recruitment from Literature Review Question #3. To do this, it utilizes a quick look format and focuses on two non-standard ideas approaches to challenge of terrorist recruitment. For readers interested in source materials on this subject, this paper also incorporates a bibliography at the end of the document.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Counter Information Messaging

To be most effective, messaging need to be targeted to specific populations, politically/ethnically correct, and entertaining. First, while there is a need for transnational messages (often those that seek to introduce alternative narratives—a mass targeting technique that uses non-linear messaging to achieve desired outcomes [see Beutel and Ruston]), messaging is most effective when it is tailored to local circumstances; presented by trusted, local voices; and in a format preferred by the target audience (radio, television, social media, religious services, etc.). This requires that information operators clearly understand the motivations, interests, and world views of potential adherents (Zalman). Based on analysis of extremist narratives by Scott Ruston at Arizona State University, an effective system of alternative narratives must recognize the need for justice, recognize threats faced by the target audience, must offer some route to glory (resolution), and must offer some subjection to a higher ideal (whether that is family, tribe, or nation). Nuanced understanding of the target audience can serve to not only contextualize the type of messaging effort and its aims but also to provide a necessary constraint upon the expected return of these programs (Huckabey & Picucci).
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Part IV: Results of 5 of 8 Conflicts in Iraqi-Syria

This briefing is the final part of a four-part study exploring the dynamics of the central Middle East conflict system. Part II describes the system and why it is critical to assess U.S. security interests and activities in the context of the entire system rather than just the conflicts (e.g., defeat of ISIL) in which the U.S. is most interested. Part II describes the analytic approach used to assess regional dynamics and regional futures based on the alignments and conflicts among three critical drivers: actor interests, resources and resolves. Part III illustrates the analytic process applied to 20-plus actor over five of the eight conflicts. Part IV presents the results of the interest, resolve, capability assessment.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Protecting Homeland from Int'l & Domestic Terrorism

It would be comforting to be able to find some constants, some footholds in our understanding of terrorism. It is, in fact, the element of mystery as to what drives people to collective violence that makes us uncomfortable -- that fills us with terror. Researchers, policy makers, those who must combat terrorism, and the public hope for some simple formula for radicalization, a program or set of programs that will prevent groups of people from deliberately targeting other people in order to meet their needs (political, economic, social, etc). There is no magic formula within this paper collection, but there are a variety of perspectives that, either in isolation or when integrated, provide new ways to think about terrorism and potentially to inform decisions that will abate this global phenomenon, not exacerbate it.
Year Published:
2010
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SMA Publication

Allocation of Commercial Space Industry Components

Thirty-four subject matter expert (SME) contributors, the majority from the commercial space industry, responded to this question. They provided details on the commercial space activities of 17 countries and the European Space Agency (ESA). As discussed in detail in other ViTTa reports,4 it is important to recognize that the division between public and private organizations and activities is rarely clear-cut. Furthermore, as contributors have noted in their responses both to this question5 and others,6 much of the space activity outside the US is concentrated on dual-use technologies and applications. For these reasons, we define the “commercial space industry” as capabilities and activities undertaken for commercial purposes, rather than capabilities and activities undertaken by a purely commercial space actor.
Year Published:
2018
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SMA Publication

Emerging Chem-Bio (and Neuro-cognitive) and Data/Computational Science Capabilities and Threats

The twentieth century evidenced the increasing use of state-of-the-art science and technology (S&T) in warfare. Included in this S&T armamentarium were new chemical and biological agents that could be yoked to extant forms of S&T (e.g., aircraft, ordnance, etc.) to facilitate delivery in kinetic engagements. Such changes in the instruments of warfare served as impetus for formulating international signatory treaties and conventions (e.g., The Chemical Weapons Convention [CWC] and Biological Toxins and
Year Published:
2024
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SMA Publication

International Collaboration in U.S. Integrated Deterrence: A Partner Perspective

This non-paper, prepared at the Swedish Defence University (SEDU), investigates the dynamics of deterrence in cooperation with the U.S.1 It is crafted for the SMA audience, providing preliminary insights into collaborative efforts within ID and emphasizing the value of partner contributions.
Year Published:
2024
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SMA Publication

Key Factors in Crisis Escalation

Over the past decade, the nature of international conflict has increasingly turned away from state-versus-state warfare becoming, instead, typified as relatively low-level crises. Different authors and institutionshave characterized this as gray zone warfare, hybrid warfare, or competition-short-of-war. The tools (i.e.,courses of action) used in this deliberately ambiguous space between war and peace have ranged from trade restrictions to information operations to the use of proxies in attempts to overthrow a government or aggressive maneuvers of military assets at or around contested geographic areas.
Year Published:
2024
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SMA Publication

Integrated Deterrence Reachback Study

This work was situated within the broader Strategic Multilayer Assessment Strategic Deterrence Frameworks (SDF) study, which incorporated four lines of effort (LOEs) and was initiated at the request of US Strategic Command (USSTRATCOM).
Year Published:
2024
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SMA Publication

Measuring Policy Effectiveness of Cyber Deterrence and Defensibility

This work was situated within the broader Strategic Multilayer Assessment Strategic Deterrence Frameworks (SDF) study, which incorporated four lines of effort (LOEs) and was initiated at the request of US Strategic Command (USSTRATCOM). The present LOE4 study was oriented around two guiding questions in a supplementary project request letter signed by US European Command (EUCOM) Deputy Commander, Lieutenant General Steven Basham: 1) How does USEUCOM deter with and through allies and partners as part of integrated deterrence? and 2) What is the optimal balance of US and ally commitment and capability to maintain an effective deterrent to aggression in Europe?
Year Published:
2024
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SMA Publication

Moloch, the Meta-Crisis, and Integrated Nuclear Deterrence

This project examines global perspectives on evolving nuclear challenges and deterrence approaches by analyzing discourse across media, arms control experts, and social platforms in major nuclear-armed nations. Using computational analysis and qualitative coding, it compiles insights from news articles, arms control blogs, and Twitter commentary over the past decade. The goal is to gain an expansive view of public conversations regarding nuclear weapons issues to inform strategic planning and assessment of the strategic environment. By compiling diverse qualitative data points, the project aims to identify areas of alignment and mismatch between official deterrence policies and public discourse that could illuminate whether existing strategies sufficiently account for media, arms control experts, and public perceptions of emergent risks. The key findings include:
Year Published:
2024
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SMA Publication

Conceptualizing the Deterrence of Terrorism in the Era of Strategic Competition

Deterring terrorism literature began as a reaction following the events of September 11, 2001. Since that time, there has been fairly robust research that applied deterrence theory to terrorism, terrorists, and violent non-state actors in general. This paper explores both the innovations and pitfalls of deterring terrorism scholarship while arguing for conceptual precision in defining levels of analysis as well as the alignment of influence mechanisms and desired outcomes when thinking about deterrence as applied to countering terrorism. This paper begins with a summary of the existent literature on deterring terrorism, focused on theoretical reconceptualization and expansion of deterrence theory as scholars attempted to apply the deterrence framework to terrorism.
Year Published:
2024
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SMA Publication

Irregular Warfare

This publication was released as part of the SMA project “21st Century Strategic Deterrence Frameworks.” (SDF) For more information regarding this project, please click here.
Year Published:
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SMA Publication

Russian Nuclear Rhetoric 2014-2023: Transatlantic Differences in Threat Perception

After decades of discourse on disarmament and non-proliferation, the war in Ukraine has effectively marked the return of nuclear weapons to both mainstream public rhetoric and military-policy planning, and highlighted the growing importance of strategic deterrence. Russia’s progressively more intense nuclear saber-rattling over the past decade is partly due to an updated NATO posture and gradual commitments by Western nuclear powers to update their arsenals.
Year Published:
2024
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SMA Publication

Chinese Strategic Deterrence Frameworks

China does not have an overarching deterrence framework. However, it is possible to identify the primary objects of Chinese deterrence and describe the Chinese playbook. China’s core strategic aims consist of deterring 1) a nuclear attack; 2) conventional, space, and cyber-attacks; and 3) outside efforts to encourage secession or political unrest. Nuclear deterrence has traditionally taken the approach that a secure second-strike capability is sufficient to prevent an adversary from threatening first use.
Year Published:
2024
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SMA Publication

NATO Strategic Foresight Analysis, Drivers of a Pervasive Competition

The Strategic Foresight Analysis 2023 (SFA23) provides a shared understanding of the Evolving Security Environment to 2043, thus establishing the context for Allied futures thinking. Based on this context, the Future Operating Environment 2024 (FOE24) will address the military problem sets for Allied Warfare Development. FOE24 will also serve as a baseline for further conceptual and strategic thinking. The renewed foresight cycle, consisting of SFA23, FOE24 and deployable foresight analytics capacities, will facilitate collective futures thinking within the Alliance, as well as augment individual Ally’s foresight capabilities.
Year Published:
2024
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SMA Publication

Deterrence Effects of Policing Programs

While there are parallels, the environment in which deterrence occurs for the U.S. Military is vastly different in context than for domestic or international law enforcement.‍
Year Published:
2023
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SMA Publication

Considering How and Why Deterrence Works in Public Health

Public health experts often approach “deterrence”—or prevention of behaviors and/or decisions that adversely affect health outcomes—by considering the many factors that influence health behaviors and decision-making. These factors, often called “health determinants,” can be divided into three levels: micro- (individual), meso- (social/community), and macro- (systems). Interventions to influence health-related decision-making at each level have been developed, tested, and refined for a variety of public health deterrence efforts.
Year Published:
2023
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SMA Publication

Strategic Culture Literature Review

The concept of strategic culture emerges in discussions of both tailored and integrated deterrence. This report examines the concept’s history, current consensus, and enduring debates about what it entails. It also proposes a model of strategic culture as a complex system.
Year Published:
2023
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SMA Publication

Tri-polar Deterrence

During the cold war the conventional wisdom was that an all-out war between the United States and the Soviet Union was all but precluded. The key to this strategic nirvana was a carefully calibrated balance of strategic weapons and the high costs associated with nuclear conflict. The policy that was credited tobringing this state of affairs about was labeled Mutual Assured Destruction, or MAD. Each side threatened to obliterate the other if it were attacked.
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SMA Publication

U.S. Command Perspectives on Campaigning in Support of Integrated Deterrence (Volume IV)

The Department will advance our priorities through integrated deterrence, campaigning, and actions that build enduring advantages. Integrated deterrence entails working seamlessly across warfighting domains, theaters, the spectrum of conflict, all instruments of U.S. national power, and our network of Alliances andpartnerships. Tailored to specific circumstances, it applies a coordinated, multifaceted approach to reducing competitors’ perceptions of the net benefits of aggression relative to restraint. Integrated deterrence is enabled by combat-credible forces prepared to fight and win, as needed, and backstopped by a safe, secure, and effective nuclear deterrent.
Year Published:
2023
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SMA Publication

Why are we integrating now—and how can we integrate better?

Integrating effectively has always provided a strategic edge, from the ancient world to the present day. Integration is a central theme of the 2022 National Defense Strategy. Here we ask: Why is the United States seeking to integrate now—and how can it integrate better? Now, for the first time since winning the Cold War, the United States must respond to a competitor strong across all levers of power—and so if it wants to compete it must integrate for the character of our new era of competition. This report traces integration as a strategic edge from the 1500s to the present, to identify key themes for the success (or failure) of US integration in the 2020s and 2030s. Three overarching sets of issues emerge: integration militarily; integration across multiple sources of power; and civil-military integration within the state. Integrating with allies and integrating technology will also be key for the United States. All are complex, so to help make them more tractable for practitioners we introduce simple concepts to deal with complex environments (e.g. the “adjacent possible”). We also introduce a powerful new field of cognitive science (metacognition or “thinking about thinking”) that can give the United States an edge for developing the humans, and human-machine teams, that will always lie at the heart of integrated US power.
Year Published:
2022
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SMA Publication

Emerging Strategic & Geopolitical Challenges: Operational Implications for US Combatant Commands (Volume III)

In this report, entitled “Emerging Strategic & Geopolitical Challenges: Operational Implications for US Combatant Commands,” ten military Combatant Commands provide overviews of the challenges they face in their respective areas of responsibility (AORs) and how they plan to ameliorate the risks and maximize the opportunities that these challenges present. The report provides the Commands a platform to articulate how they plan to manage the multiplicity of challenges they face. By doing so, it helps identify the types of capabilities and activities the Services must be able to plan for and field in defense of US interests in a competitive future international environment.
Year Published:
2022
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SMA Publication

A Flexible Framework to Achieve Strategic Objectives in US-China Policy

The United States must adopt a new overarching strategy to guide US-China relations moving forward. Neither the traditional approach of engagement intended to promote democratic ideals, nor more recent confrontational practices, have worked. There is an urgent need for a new strategic framework that embraces Chinese political and economic realities and uses those realities to US advantage to advance US national and international agendas. What is proposed here is an innovative strategic framework utilizing a soft-power deterrence approach to simultaneously engage, challenge, and integrate China. Successfully implementing this strategy demands a flexible rather than reactive US-China policy encompassing short-term (reengagement), medium-term (challenging), and long-term (integrating) approaches that will advance US interests across the spectrum of cooperation, competition, and conflict throughout the coming decade.
Year Published:
2020
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SMA Publication

Understanding the Information Environment to Win the Next Conflict Without Firing a Shot

In our increasingly digital society, military operations and civilian-alike rely heavily on the technological tools that connect us. Social media has become a powerful influence tool to sow discord, sway sentiment, and purport cause for actions that otherwise would be condemned by the international community. Cellular services have become the default mode of communication. And the amount of data collected continues to grow.
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

SMA SEEK Results: Expanding US Nuclear Capability & Pessimism About Nuclear Use in the Next 15 Years

In August 2021, many of you participated in SMA’s inaugural Survey for Eliciting Expert Knowledge (SEEK) outreach. SEEK is SMA’s new, online capability for tapping into the collective knowledge, experience, and wisdom of our 5000+ person community of interest to generate crowdsourced insights on questions of interest. We conducted two surveys as part of this inaugural SEEK—one on deterrence and strategic stability, and a second on perceptions of threats and opportunities among US competitors. Perhaps surprisingly, we found:
Year Published:
2022
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SMA Publication

SMA 21st Century Strategic Challenges: Strategy and Planning for Diterrence and Triterrence

This NSI Reachback report is part of an effort requested by USSTRATCOM to the Strategic Multi-layer Assessment Office, Joint Staff (J39). The essence of the question is how to develop an approach for assessing and developing strategy in the current environment.
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

Guide to Analytic Techniques for Nuclear Strategy Analysis

This Guide to Analytic Techniques, developed for SMA’s 2011 Concepts & Analysis Of Nuclear Strategy (CANS) project for USSTRATCOM, is offered in response to the following question from SMA’s 2021 Reachback Effort on Risk of Strategic Deterrence Failure.
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

Modeling Risk of Strategic Deterrence Failure

George Mason University (GMU) worked with Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) to model risk of strategic deterrence failure, identify potential indicators and factors the U.S. and its partners can influence, and explain this risk to members of Congress and other organizations in a position to influence strategies to protect against a catastrophic strategic deterrence failure. The model examines strategic deterrence risk using an adversary restraint-centric course of action (COA) selection approach that decomposes into two primary causes of deterrence failure: (1) Adversary perceived need to act (adversely to U.S. interests) and (2) adversary perceived advantage after executing the COA and experiencing a likely U.S. response. The strength of this approach is that by understanding the adversary’s perceived need to act due to a scenario, the U.S. and its partners can take steps to influence selection of a COA that meets the adversary’s need to act but does not undermine U.S. vital interests or national survival. Recognizing that the U.S. may have limited control of the scenario, the report further decomposes the risk factors to suggest Adversary COA selection Causal Factors that the U.S. can influence as a means to deter critically unacceptable actions from a U.S. perspective. It also describes an approach to identify indications and warnings of an impending situation that could lead an adversary to contemplate courses of action posing threats to U.S. vital interests or national survival.
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

The Escalatory Attraction of Limited Nuclear Employment For Great Power Competitors of the United States

The United States has entered into a dangerously new era in which, for the first time in our nation’s history, we now face two nuclear-armed great power competitors. Over the past three decades, while the United States has been focused on a variety of other national security challenges, Russia and China have observed the “US way of war” and made immense strides to position themselves to successfully counter that. While having achieved some level of success in closing the gap across a wide spectrum of military capabilities and operational realities, those two nuclear-armed peers have concluded not only that limited nuclear employment might be required in any conflict with the United States, but that this is a domain of conflict and level of escalation affording unique advantage for them since it is an area in which the US has neither the perceived will nor the perceived capabilities to compete. This paper discusses that “escalatory attraction” of limited nuclear employment for our great power competitors.
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

Invited Perspective: Anticipating the Effects of Emerging Technologies on Nuclear Deterrence

The effectiveness of nuclear deterrence depends upon mutual confidence in second-strike capabilities – for nuclear deterrence to work, nuclear-armed competitors must all believe that each can absorb a first strike and still return a nuclear response. Emerging technologies being pursued by US competitors that enhance their ability to locate, track, and target nuclear assets, and those that can be used to compromise or to damage components of nuclear communication, command, and control (NC3) erode second-strike and put at risk the future deterrent effectiveness of US strategic forces. The United States can guard against this outcome by modernizing its air- and sea-based nuclear assets, developing resilient and redundant cyber defenses, and actively pursuing international agreements that limit the deleterious effects of ISR and that prohibit kinetic or cyber attacks on terrestrial and satellite-based components of NC3.
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

The Role of Nuclear-Conventional Intermingling on State Decision-making and the Risk of Inadvertent Escalation

In practice, there are three main forms of nuclear-conventional intermingling. First, intermingling between nuclear and non-nuclear weapon systems can occur via the fielding of dual capable delivery systems like missiles or aircraft. Second, intermingling can happen due to the co-location of nuclear and non-nuclear forces and their support structures—for example, the co-location of strategic bombers and general-purpose aircraft, or the co-location of strategic submarines and general-purpose vessels. Third, intermingling can occur via convolving nuclear and conventional military command and control systems, to include ballistic missile early warning and potentially space surveillance systems as well.
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

Operations in the Information Environment: Course of Action Analysis Exercise

The ICONS Project, a wargaming and simulation organization at the University of Maryland, was asked by the Joint Staff, J39, DDGO, Strategic Multilayer Assessment Office (SMA), to design, execute, and analyze a Table Top Exercise (TTX) in support of the Integration of Information in Joint Operations (IIJO) research
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

US versus China: Promoting 'Constructive Competition' to Avoid 'Destructive Competition' (Volume II)

It is not an exaggeration to state that China is and will remain a significant challenge to the US on all aspects of national power for the foreseeable future. This situation has been in the making for quite some time. This SMA Perspectives paper will not delve into the historical roots of why the US got to where it is, however. Nor will it dwell on the purely military aspects of the conflict. These are important considerations that are amply discussed elsewhere in numerous scholarly publications. This SMA Perspectives paper is focused on the following question: “How should the US manage the US-China relations so that they stay below the level of conflict and destructive competition?” In this context, the paper distinguishes “constructive competition” from “destructive competition.”
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

Information in Joint Operations: Insights for Commanders and Planners From Competitive Risk Modeling

George Mason University (GMU) worked with Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) to identify risks to competition effectiveness that could be mitigated through improved integration of information into joint and unified action operations. The initial focus was aligned with evolving Command and Control of the Information Environment (C2OIE) doctrinal concepts, but later shifted from strategic level integration to integration of information into unified action activities at the operational level. It is very difficult to achieve information enabling event alignment across the Whole of Government because there is no one responsible for this alignment at any planning level (Strategic, Operational, or Execution).
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

The Future Character of Information in Strategy: Forged by Cognition and Technology

The basic cognitive nature of how human brains process information hasn’t changed for millennia, including how we use information in strategy. Information is crucial for strategy aimed at others, whether that is outwitting adversaries or cooperating with allies. And even a superb strategy must be conveyed to one’s own people.
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

Information Maneuver in Military Operations

Treating information as a form of maneuver can provide powerful advantages to commanders and political leaders responsible for US and partner national security. The components of successful maneuver first proposed by van Creveld, Canby, & Brower in 1994—positioning, tempo, Schwerpunkt, surprise and deception, cross-domain synergy, flexibility, unity of effort, and opportunism—can also serve as elements of a framework to anticipate an adversary’s integrated use of information to undermine US and partner interests.
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

Measuring Information Effects

The objective of the Integrating Information into Joint Operations (IIJO) project is to assess the ways in which the Joint Force can most effectively integrate information1 into its activities across the competition-conflict continuum. During the course of this project, we have spoken to many people familiar with both Department of Defense (DOD) and Department of State (DOS) efforts to integrate information and shape the information environment (IE); their overall assessment has been remarkably consistent.2 Namely, information is playing an increasingly important role in states’ ability to protect and further their national interests, but the United States is not currently equipped or positioned to counter the scope and scale of our adversaries’ information activities.
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

Effective Communication: Lessons Learned From Those Outside the US Government and Military

This report integrates key insights and lessons learned from the SMA IIJO effort about how those outside of the US government and military (i.e., non-government and private sector organizations) use messaging and communication to influence and inform. Ultimately, what emerges is a collection of best practices for effective communication. The source material for this report consists of final deliverables produced as part of the SMA IIJO effort. In particular, the findings presented in this report are largely built upon the integration of the work done as part of the IIJO Quick Looks and IIJO Virtual Think Tank (ViTTa) lines of effort.
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

Operational Cyberpsychology: Adapting a Special Operations Model for Cyber Operations

This paper conceptualizes operational cyberpsychology as a field that supports missions intended to project power in and through cyberspace (Joint Staff, 2018) by leveraging and applying expertise in mental processes and behavior in the context of interaction amongst humans and machines (Norman, 2017). Operational psychologists can improve the effectiveness of cyber operations by contributing to (1) supporting online psychological operations (PSYOP), (2) facilitating and supporting online intelligence operations, (3) assessment and selection of personnel, (4) operationally focused mental health support, and (5) hostage negotiations (Staal & Stephenson, 2013).
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

Emerging Neuroscience and Technology (NeuroS/T): Current and Near-Term Risks and Threats to US—and Global—Biosecurity

There is increasing interest and effort in developing improved tools and methods through which political, military, and intelligence operations can influence the cognitive, emotional, and behavioral patterns of peer competitors and adversaries.
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

Cognitive Defense of the Joint Force in a Digitizing World

How can we defend the humans in the Joint Force—and its key support networks—from adversarial information operations in our digitizing world? Service personnel, their families and friends are human. Adversaries and other destabilizing forces threaten to sow disruption amongst these millions of humans, in order to degrade collective capabilities. “Deepfakes” illustrate how such threats’ character may evolve as part of “combined arms” information operations alongside other dual-use Artificial Intelligence (AI) tech. Success for the Joint Force is to react effectively, but within the democratic constraints of a free society.
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

Strategic Influence: Applying the Principles of Unconventional Warfare in Peace

The most important aspect of our containment strategy is that it serves to contain ourselves,” former President Dwight Eisenhower reportedly observed after he had left office. Perhaps the greatest problem facing the United States in the post-Cold War era is not our waning ability to deter the problematic peacetime activities of others; rather, it is that we have lost sight of the need to deter ourselves.
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

Present and Future Challenges to Maintaining Balance Between Global Cooperation and Competition (Volume I)

The future operating environment will present US military leaders and planners with both familiar and unfamiliar problem sets that will test the DoD and partner nations’ ability to maintain strategic stability. These future challenges are anticipated to be significantly different from those of recent decades. The two overarching challenges are contested norms and persistent disorder. It is expected that adversaries will continue to pursue their national objectives by creatively combining conventional and non-conventional methods to operate below a threshold that they believe would invoke a direct military or other damaging response from the United States or its allies.
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

On Education and Training for Operations in the Information Environment

The Services and the Joint Staff provide both professional military education as well as academic education through the various schools, colleges and academies. These elements are currently working on developing courses and modifying curricula to address the guidance provided by the 15 May 2020 policy CJCSI 1800.01F. However, there is need for a short-term, temporary approach to inculcate rapidly the force across all levels on the challenges of operating in the information environment. Such an approach, based on a similar challenge faced by the USAF in the early 2000s, is outlined in a short paper.
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

Escalation Management in 21st Century Operations in the Information Environment

We argue that the concept of escalation thresholds remains salient in national security and may be even more important than ever. However, the Cold War model is no longer useful given the multi-dimensional and complex nature of information in today’s world. We argue that escalation thresholds regarding information need to be conceived of in terms of complex systems. Qualitatively, analysts and decision makers must learn to intuit the dynamics of information in a complex world. Quantitatively, analysts must bring to bear complexity theory, and appropriate modeling and data collection. These changes have implications across the spectrum of activities that include doctrine, organization, training, materiel, leadership and education, personnel, facilities, and policy.
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

The Three N Approach to Strategies for United States Government Information Operations

This paper seeks to answer the following question: What can we learn from the process of radicalization into extremism that can be applied to information operations to make them more successful? We contend that the 3 N model of radicalization applies more generally to the process whereby information is absorbed and is having impact. This process assumes that information absorption and impact are driven by motivation—that is, human needs. The 3 Ns refer to needs, narratives, and networks, which together help us understand why some individuals become radicalized. Radicalization, the internalization of an extremist narrative, is driven by exposure to an extremist narrative validated by a social network of trusted others who—through the narrative—provide a means to satisfy the crucial human need for significance
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

How [Culture] Change Happens: A Roadmap of What Works

Change is hard; it humbles us all. Yet, it is possible to succeed. This article explores the why, what, who and how of successful change initiatives. Despite wildly different organizational cultures in the U.S. Navy, Walt Disney, Major League Baseball teams, Police Departments, and in the technology and banking sectors, common practices employed by change champions yielded success. This article will demonstrate the importance of messaging change clearly, demonstrating how to live the change, aligning your people’s behaviors with new organizational values, using data to make change actionable and your organization accountable and cultivating strategic patience to sustain change initiatives over time. We hope this invited perspective provides confidence among the curious that, despite how difficult undertaking change is – and the many competing perspectives in the marketplace about how to do it well – this roadmap can set you up for success.
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

Transactional Communication Model

This report presents a model for understanding the core communication process, and elaborates on mechanisms to strengthen it. We begin with an overview of the core communication process itself then discuss where and how factors internal and external to the communication process can influence the effectiveness of message transmission and interpretation. As the theoretical foundations of the model are covered in a companion IIJO Quick Look, “The Development of Communication Models,” in this report, we have kept the theoretical section to brief definitions of the key terms.
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

Vulnerabilities to Cognitive Biases in the OODA Loop Process

A recent Quick Look prepared as part of a Joint Staff and Air Force (A3)-sponsored effort to examine the effectiveness of Operations in the Information Environment (OIE) examines how cognitive biases can affect the communication process (Polansky & Rieger, 2020). During review of that analysis, a discussion arose regarding how cognitive biases can affect not only communication, but also decision-making, including more structured processes such as the OODA (Observe, Orient, Decide, Act) Loop analytical framework. To address those questions and concerns, in the present paper, we explore how some common types of cognitive bias can impact an OODA Loop analysis, potentially leading to a sub-optimal result.
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

Understanding Mass Self-Communication

This brief discusses a new form of communication within networked societies—Castells’ so-called mass self-communication. The brief highlights how barriers between old and new media are disappearing as increasing technological access creates new forms of labor, challenges traditional understandings of the communication process, and empowers individuals to make otherwise inconceivable system-wide impacts.
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

The COVID Crisis: Implications for United States—and Global—Biosecurity

The United States’ (US) engagement of public health resources to meet the current SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) crisis has revealed vulnerabilities in testing and treatment components of biosecurity. Facing a severe shortage of available testing kits, the US Centers for Disease Control (CDC) attempted to develop its own test for COVID-19, rather than following World Health Organization (WHO) recommendations for testing methods. The lack of tests has made it difficult to track exactly how many people within each state, as well as the US at-large have been affected, which has implications both for the extent of public health response, and considerations for approaches to stabilize and sustain the national economy.
Year Published:
2020
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SMA Publication

Assessment of Strategic Implications of Population Dynamics in the Central Region—Integration Report: Great Power Competition

At the request of the United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), SMA initiated a study to understand the strategic implications of destabilizing population dynamics within the Central Region. The effort examined drivers of instability in the region emerging from radicalization, great power competition, state-level instability, and black swan scenarios. This report integrates the research conducted by the teams listed on the front cover in response to USCENTCOM’s questions about great power competition. This report is intended to be a succinct, easily navigable representation of the exceptional work by the collective SMA team. Please click on the links embedded in the report to go directly to the research studies.
Year Published:
2020
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SMA Publication

US Action and Inaction in Lebanon: Charting the Best Course for US Interests in Great Power Competition

Despite significant challenges to its stability, Lebanon has long survived politically and economically. Nonetheless, poor governance and a severe economic crisis, coupled with ongoing public outrage, signal that the Lebanese government may no longer be able to withstand its enduring pressures.
Year Published:
2020
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SMA Publication

Central Region Instability Dynamics

With support from GTRI, GMU worked with Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) to assess strategic risk to U.S. and partner interests in the Middle East caused by great power competition in the region.
Year Published:
2020
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SMA Publication

Sino-Russian Competition: Self-Inflicted Competition in Central Asia?

China and Russia support each other’s political and economic objectives both globally and in the USCENTCOM area of responsibility (AOR) because, in part, of a strong mutual interest in weakening the United States’ geopolitical influence and power (Solomentseva, 2014; Lons, 2019).
Year Published:
2020
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SMA Publication

Stability in US-Egyptian Relations: Why the United States is Unlikely to Make a Major Policy Shift in Response to Egyptian Events

The United States’ relationship with Egypt is generally thought to be an important one (Miller, 2020; Sharp, 2019; Wisner & Salem, 2017). However, some experts suggest that the benefits obtained by the United States for its assistance to Egypt may be overstated (Hanna, 2020; Miller, 2020).
Year Published:
2020
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SMA Publication

Rethinking Communication Influence from a Strategic Communication Approach

For over a decade, many within US defense and interagency circles maintain a belief they are ‘losing’ the communication influence battle, one its adversaries are excelling at due to seemingly better strategy and reach. Peer competitor infiltration into American elections, radical groups facilitating foreign fighter flow over chat applications, and/or failed attempts to counter narratives should reason for a glaring need for the US to change strategy. But surprisingly little or none of this strategic shift is occurring.
Year Published:
2020
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SMA Publication

Complex Adaptive Systems

In his interview with Lt Col David Lyle (US Air Force Academy) on 4 June 2019, Dr. Sean Lawson discusses how complexity might inform SMA’s Future of Global Competition & Conflict study. More specifically, Dr. Lawson argues that although it is important to look back at previous instances of the butterfly effect, butterfly effects are not possible to control because they are merely byproducts of a system’s existence.
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

Discrete, Specified, Assigned, and Bounded Problems: The Appropriate Areas for AI Contributions to National Security

The cluster of technologies associated with artificial intelligence (AI) research and development, and the implications of these technologies across the spectrum of human activity including national security, generates a blur of fast-moving technological, political, strategic, and ethical puzzles. For all their hyper-modern veneer, tracing the trajectories of historical thought associated with these puzzles offers some much-needed clarity. To this end, what follows is an overview of three relevant trajectories. While far from exhaustive, practitioners and theorists alike in national security should have a solid grounding in these thought trajectories to facilitate reasoned decisions about AI research and development.
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

Violent Extremist Organizations (VEOs): The Strategic Importance of Defining the Enemy

In this paper, as part of SMA’s Invited Perspectives series, Mr. Vern Liebl indicates that ‘violent extremist organization’ (VEO) may not be an accurate term for describing modern terrorist entities. To illustrate this point, Mr. Liebl first provides a brief history of how the term ‘VEO’ entered US defense, intelligence, and law enforcement officials’ lexicon and became commonly used. He then defines what the term ‘VEO’ means and questions whether it still appropriately applies to the organizations that have been labelled as such (namely Hezbollah, Al Qaeda, and the Islamic State).
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

SMA Invited Perspectives Series: SOF Paradigm in Great Power Competition

The current National Security, Defense, and Military Strategies identify great power rivalries from Russia and China as two of the main challenges facing the United States for the foreseeable future.
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

Inequality, Risk Sensitivity, and Grievance in Context – An NSI Aggrieved Populations Analysis

Success in the global competition between the US, China, and Russia may be determined by a country’s ability to influence the world’s populations. A population’s aspirations and grievances can drive national security problems for all three powers when frustrated aspirations and grievances lead to state instability, terrorism, or other challenges such as unwanted or unmanaged migration. In accordance with the questions posed in the J39 Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) Great Power Competition tasking, this report summarizes context-specific qualitative and quantitative analyses of the conditions impacting population aspirations and grievances for 25 countries, and how these impact US, Chinese, and Russian interests. Issues include:
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

Global Strategy Amidst the Globe’s Cultures: Cultures in Individual Cognition, States and the Global System

How can the US make global strategy in a world both vast and rich with cultural diversity? This matters: the US shaped the global system more than any other power since 1945, and that system hugely benefited the US and much of the globe. Whoever leads the global examine two aspects of this challenge.
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

SMA Invited Perspectives Series: The American Psyche in a Newly Competitive Era- Some Initial Reflections

In this invited perspectives paper, Mr. Wyne cautions that the construct of “great-power competition” should not substitute for a coherent national strategy oriented toward desired steady states, and that an excessive focus on competition as an imperative unto itself could lead the United States into errors of overcommitment. Mr. Wyne questions how much policy guidance emerges from oft-stated objectives such as remaining the world’s foremost power or maintaining the current postwar order. The lack of strategic clarity along with the anxiety inherent in preeminence make the United States vulnerable to asymmetric tactics of manipulation. Mr. Wyne concludes by exploring specific aspects of “great-power competition,” including Sino-Russian relations and US-China competition in the Asia-Pacific.
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

Statistical Modeling of Risk and Political Instability in the Influence Environment – An NSI Aggrieved Populations Analysis

Success in the global competition between the US, China, and Russia may be determined by a country’s ability to influence the world’s populations. A population’s aspirations and grievances can drive national security problems for all three powers when frustrated aspirations and grievances lead to state instability, terrorism, or other challenges such as unwanted or unmanaged migration. In accordance with the questions posed in the J39 Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) Great Power Competition tasking, this study is intended to address the following issues through the use of country-level global statistical modeling, including identifying or anticipating:
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

Global Competition: Planning Globally Integrated Operations

With support from GTRI, GMU worked with Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) to identify preferred, acceptable, and sustainable strategic outcomes for the U.S. and its partners. Decomposing these outcomes into causal effects and influencers served as a starting point to identify opportunities for Joint Force leaders and their inter-organizational partners to integrate military efforts and align military and non-military activities to avoid unacceptable strategic outcomes while pursuing U.S. national interests.
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

United States Country Report- An NSI Aggrieved Populations Analysis

Four datasets on wealth and status distribution in the United States were analyzed: 2016, 2010, and 2007 World Bank quintile and decile estimates of income, and 2017 US Bureau of Labor statistics income deciles.
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

Mexico Country Report- An NSI Aggrieved Populations Analysis

Two datasets on wealth and status distribution in Mexico were analyzed: 2016 World Bank quintile and decile estimates of income, and income by occupation data from the Mexican Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI) for 2017.
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

SMA Quick Concepts Series: Global Influence

“Influence” and “power” are foundational to how geopolitics are discussed and understood. Many American planners and policymakers are strong believers in global influence: fearing both its relative and absolute loss; seeking to “grow” and “spread” the United States’ influence; and trying to counter the influence of critical competitors such as the People’s Republic of China, the Russian Federation, and the Islamic Republic of Iran (Jafri & Stevenson, 2019).
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

Using Narratives to Shape Chinese and Russian Behavior – A Future of Global Competition and Conflict Virtual Think Tank Report

Dean Cheng (Heritage Foundation), Dr. Skye Cooley (Oklahoma State University), Dr. Nicholas J. Cull (University of Southern California), Dr. John Delury (Yonsei University), Dr. Sean McFate (National Defense University), Dr. Nicholas Michelsen (King’s College, London), Dr. Christopher Paul (RAND Corporation), Dr. Laura Roselle (Elon University), Dr. Scott Ruston (Arizona State University), Dr. Jaganath Sankaran (University of Texas at Austin), Lieutenant Colonel Maciej Zaborowski (US Central Command)
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

Potential for a China-Russia and/or US-China-Russia Alliance – A Future of Global Competition and Conflict Virtual Think Tank Report

[Q9] Are there any commonly valued objectives that may enable an alliance between China and Russia against US interests, or among all three nations allowing a reduction of tensions?
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

Chinese and Russian Economic Statecraft: Strategic Threat or Benign Business Activity? – A Future of Global Competition and Conflict Virtual Think Tank Report

Dr. Kerry Brown (King’s College, London), Dean Cheng (Heritage Foundation), Major Christopher Culver (US Air Force Academy), Abraham M. Denmark (Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars), Peter E. Harrell (Center for a New American Security), Anthony Rinna (Sino-NK), Dr. Derek M. Scissors (American Enterprise Institute), Andrew Small (German Marshall Fund), Dr. Robert S. Spalding III (US Air Force), Yun Sun (Stimson Center), Nicolas Véron (Bruegel and Peterson Institute for International Economics), Dr. Yuval Weber (Daniel Morgan Graduate School of National Security), Ali Wyne (RAND Corporation), Lieutenant Colonel Maciej Zaborowski (US Central Command)
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

Power Under Parity – A Future of Global Competition and Conflict Virtual Think Tank Report

Paul I. Bernstein (National Defense University), Dean Cheng (Heritage Foundation), Abraham M. Denmark (Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars), Michael Fabey (Jane’s Fighting Ships), Dr. Peter Layton (Griffith University), Dr. Edward N. Luttwak (CSIS), Dr. Jahara Matisek (US Air Force), Dr. Sean McFate (National Defense University), Dr. Lukas Milevski (Leiden University), Anthony Rinna (Sino-NK), Dr. Jaganath Sankaran (University of Texas at Austin), Dr. Robert S. Spalding III (US Air Force), Dr. Michael D. Swaine (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace), Nicolas Véron (Bruegel and Peterson Institute for International Economics)
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

China’s and Russia’s Approach to Regional and Global Competition – A Future of Global Competition and Conflict Virtual Think Tank Report

[Q8] How do China and Russia approach global, not just regional, arenas for competition?
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

Types and Locations of Challenges to US Interests, 2019-2029 – A Future of Global Competition and Conflict Virtual Think Tank Report

[Q5] In which regions should the US expect significant challenges to its interests over the coming decade? What form will these challenges take (e.g., poor/instable governance, rising hegemons, aggrieved populations, violent non-state actors, external influence operations, etc.) and which US interests will these challenges most likely impact?
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

Russia’s Sentimental Revisionist Approach to Competition and Conflict – A Future of Global Competition and Conflict Virtual Think Tank Report

[Q4] How does Russia perceive the continuum of conflict? How does Russia plan for, operate within, and manage risk within the competitive space? From the Russian perspective, what constitutes legitimate or acceptable deterrence, compellence, and escalation management? What are the implications of those differences for senior political and military decision makers in the US?
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

Kinetic and Non-Kinetic Tactics of Competing Powers Over the Coming Decade – A Future of Global Competition and Conflict Virtual Think Tank Report

[Q2] What kinetic (e.g., weapon systems) and non-kinetic (e.g., disinformation campaigns, financial market manipulation, political tampering) tactics are and will be used by competing powers domestically and abroad to undercut US interests over the coming decade?
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

The Character of Global Competition and Conflict, 2019-2029 – A Future of Global Competition and Conflict Virtual Think Tank Report

[Q1] How will the character of global competition and conflict change over the next decade, and which emerging global trends and conditions will drive this change? What are the implications of expected future global conditions for developing integrated US strategy and plans to defend US interests over both short- and long- term timeframes?
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

Overcoming “the Silo Effect” in the Department of Defense

Different perspectives and operational goals across services allows for specialized expertise, but also creates a vulnerability for silo creation. At times, these silos can inhibit cooperation, limit mission effectiveness, and leave critical decision points inadequately addressed. There is a need for more deliberate planning and operational execution that cuts across multiple services and perspectives in order to better balance requirements, more efficiently plan, and more holistically address national security challenges. This need applies not only to operational decisions but also in evaluating ongoing programs to determine their continued effectiveness.
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

Grand Strategy Alternatives

The SMA Future of Great Power Competition & Conflict project is researching how the United States might strategize to defend its global interests. This paper supports the project in deriving some grand strategy alternatives specifically related to China (twelve) and Russia (ten). The development of the alternatives draws on a broader spectrum of international relation’s theories than the restricted neorealist set generally employ. The study’s aims are to encourage the consideration of tangential approaches, suggest different framing mechanisms that could restructure our thinking about managing great power competition, and briefly outline a range of alternative ways to meet the challenges China and Russia pose.
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

Clash of Strategic Cultures

This paper seeks to describe the cultural and cognitive dissimilarities in how the United States and China pursue strategic competition. The first difference detailed involves how the two societies look at goals and time, as well as how those two factors lead to very different conceptions of strategy. The paper posits that the United States focuses more on a militaristic national security policy while China focuses more on economics and information. Other factors are described that attempt to explain how societal or cultural differences serve to enhance China’s strategy vis-à-vis the United States. Overall, the paper describes a future where China’s model may be more successful in a globalized world, which creates a magnetism for developing countries as well as the corporate sectors of developed countries. The paper concludes by briefly outlining American strengths and how it might use them to create a more effective strategy.
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

Assessment of Possible Reactions in German-Speaking and East Central Europe and the European Union (GS-ECE/EU) to Possible Strategic Outcomes in U.S.-DPRK Relations

The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) does not currently constitute a strategic threat via inter-continental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) to German-Speaking and East Central Europe (GS-ECE), to the States of the European Union (EU), or to non-EU European States. Proven and potential cyber threats do exist, however, as does the proven threat of traditional espionage.
Year Published:
2018
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SMA Speaker Series (Tagged: North America)

SMA Speaker Series

China’s Nuclear Modernization and Its Implications

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Tong Zhao (Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) as part of its SMA INDOPACOM Speaker Series.
February 23, 2022
Tong Zhao
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SMA Speaker Series

Emerging Strategic & Geopolitical Challenges: Operational Implications for US Combatant Commands

SMA hosted a panel with Mr. Michael A. Clark (Director for Acquisition and Technology (J9), USCYBERCOM), Ms. Kayse Jansen (Branch Chief, Deterrence Analysis and Outreach, Plans and Policy Directorate, USSTRATCOM/J5), Mr. James “JJ” Jenista (Air Force Civilian, Joint Training, Exercise, and Wargaming Directorate (J7), USNORTHCOM & NORAD), Mr. Robert C. Jones (Senior Strategist, USSOCOM J5-JSOU Donovan Integration Group), Mr. Jimmy Krakar (Academic Coordinator, USEUCOM), Ms. Lesley Kucharski (Analyst, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory), Dr. Robert M. Toguchi (Chief, Concepts Division, Force Modernization Directorate (FMD), USASOC), Col David W. Walker (Policy Division Chief, USCENTCOM CCJ5), and Ms. Michele K. Wolfe (Senior Operations Research Analyst, USAFRICOM) as part of its SMA General Speaker Series.
January 25, 2023
Clark, M. (Director for Acquisition and Technology (J9), USCYBERCOM); Jansen, K. (Branch Chief, Deterrence Analysis and Outreach, Plans and Policy Directorate, USSTRATCOM/J5); Jenista, J. (Air Force Civilian, Joint Training, Exercise, and Wargaming Directorate (J7), USNORTHCOM & NORAD); Jones, R. (Senior Strategist, USSOCOM J5-JSOU Donovan Integration Group); Krakar, J. (Academic Coordinator, USEUCOM); Kucharski, L. (Analyst, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory); Toguchi, R. (Chief, Concepts Division, Force Modernization Directorate (FMD), USASOC); Walker, D. (Policy Division Chief, USCENTCOM CCJ5); Wolfe, M. (Senior Operations Research Analyst, USAFRICOM)
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SMA Speaker Series

The US-Saudi Arms Deal(s) After Khashoggi

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Professor David Des Roches (National Defense University) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM Speaker Series. Prof. Des Roches began his presentation by discussing the details of the $110B arms deal that US President Donald Trump and Saudi Arabian King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud negotiated during the Riyadh Summit.
January 10, 2019
Des Roches, D. (National Defense University)
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SMA Speaker Series

Back to the Future: Trajectories, Simulations and Alternative Futures of Great Power Competition

The US and China have been locked in a great power competition (GPC) that will decide who has more political influence among both developing and developed countries.
July 12, 2023
Dr. Mark Abdollahian
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SMA Speaker Series

How Developments in Brain Science Afford Military Utility

The use of sarin gas in Syria and the nerve agent VX to assassinate Kim Jong-nam, and ongoing international efforts in dual-use brain science (such as those described in the accompanying papers) prompt renewed interest in the current and near-term possibilities of developing and employing neuroweapons.
April 17, 2017
James Giordano and Drs. Diane DiEuliis
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SMA Speaker Series

Deterrence Among Three to Twelve Nuclear Powers: Fundamental Instability and Mitigation Strategy

The fundamental instability of bilateral nuclear deterrence (Albert Wohlstetter’s “delicate balance of terror”) is mitigated, in part, by each adversary deploying and maintaining weapons systems that are capable of guaranteeing a second-strike after an adversary has launched a first-strike.
June 27, 2024
Dr. Claudio Cioffi-Revilla (George Mason University)
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SMA Speaker Series

The Shape of the Future Operating Environment: How Our Adversaries Have Learned to Stop Worrying and Ignore the Bomb

In July of this year, at the request of USSTRATCOM, SMA initiated an effort to address eight questions regarding the implications of the increasing numbers, and expanding capabilities, of US nuclear adversaries.
November 11, 2021
Bragg, B
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SMA Speaker Series

An Agenda for Disinformation Research

Dr. Garland defined disinformation as “false misleading or inaccurate information disseminated with the intent to deceive.” Disinformation must be countered because it undermines individuals’ trust in US institutions and destroys society’s shared reality, increasing polarization and societal conflict.
July 20, 2021
Joshua Garland
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SMA Speaker Series

U.S. Military Theories of Victory for a War with the People's Republic of China

The United States has not had to seriously consider conflict escalation with a near-peer adversary that could result in a conflict that ends in large-scale destruction since the Cold War.
November 13, 2024
Jacob Heim and Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga
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SMA Speaker Series

The Next Quantum Superpower? US-China Quantum Competition and the New Global Quantum Scramble Quantum Computing

The race to achieve quantum computing has significant implications for the future security landscape. Dr. Williams highlighted the current progress, challenges, and opportunities for growth in the quantum computing field.
July 30, 2024
‍Dr. Brandon Kirk Williams
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SMA Speaker Series

Emerging Military Technologies: Putting Policy Before Profit

There is growing concern among some scholars that the pursuit of economic incentives may push US military technology advancements ahead of the establishment of proper policies and security measures, prioritizing profits over policy.
September 25, 2024
William D. Hartung and Dr. Michael Brenes
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SMA Speaker Series

Statelet of Survivors: The Making of a Semi-Autonomous Region in Northeast Syria: US Options in the New Phase of the Syrian Conflict

The political overtures made by Turkish President Erdogan to normalize relations with the Assad regime are reshaping the dynamics of the Syrian civil war.
August 28, 2024
Dr. Amy Austin Holmes
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SMA Speaker Series

Irregular Warfare in Strategic Competition and Gray Zones: Prosecuting Authoritarian Subversion and Exploitative Use of Corruption and Criminality to Weaken Democracy

US adversaries, including China, Russia, and Iran, aim to diminish Western influence while expanding their own in many countries. They employ various strategies, such as leveraging proxies, transnational organized crime and kleptocrats, which can undermine democracies and the rule of law.
August 22, 2024
David Luna
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SMA Speaker Series

Climate Change as an Indirect Contributor to Terrorism

Climate change is now widely recognized as a significant national security threat multiplier that exacerbates existing state and regional vulnerabilities, increasing the likelihood of conflict. Environmental stress intensifies human, economic, and political instability, particularly in countries in Africa and East Asia.
August 21, 2024
Madeline Romm
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SMA Speaker Series

Global Influence Operations

Global Witness employs a strategy of research, exposure, and advocacy to dismantle autocratic and kleptocratic regimes, such as Charles Taylor’s regime in Liberia.
July 31, 2024
Patrick Alley
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SMA Speaker Series

How Climate Change Impacts Security and Conflict Worldwide

Climate change is projected to have deep and far-reaching effects as its pace continues to increase, amplifying states’ insecurities and vulnerabilities.
September 19, 2024
Dr. Tim Clack and Ella Fleming
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SMA Speaker Series

Climate, Peace, and Security in Latin America and the Caribbean – A Perspective from UNDP

Since 2008, the discourse on the relationship between climate change effects, conflict, and security has significantly evolved.
July 18, 2024
Adam Forbes
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SMA Speaker Series

The Promise & Perils of AI: What We’ve Learned from Some of the Largest Real World Deployments of Generative & Classical AI to Understand Global News

One of the GDELT Project’s goals is to use artificial intelligence (AI) to better understand our world.
July 11, 2024
Dr. Kalev Hannes Leetaru
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SMA Speaker Series

Foreign Assistance in an Era of Strategic Competition

China is the only modern-day US competitor with both the intent and the capability to challenge the United States politically, militarily, and economically.
May 23, 2024
Daniel Cederberg
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SMA Speaker Series

Critical Minerals Geopolitics and Security

Minerals are crucial components of advanced weapons systems, playing a pivotal role in military capability and power projection. They are increasingly integrated into new attack platforms, including Virginia-class attack submarines and long-range missiles.
May 16, 2024
Morgan Bazilian and Gregory Wischer
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SMA Speaker Series

A Hotter and Drier Future Ahead - An Assessment of Climate Change in U.S. Central Command

Climate-related stressors present significant risks to future stability in countries worldwide, affecting all US Combatant Commands.
May 9, 2024
Dr. Michelle Miro, Dr. Flannery C. Dolan, Karen M. Sudkamp, and Jeffrey Martini
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SMA Speaker Series

Some of the Analysis Behind RAND’s “Inflection Point” Report

Modern threats from developed nations like China are beginning to exceed US capabilities, partly because the US military was predominantly focused on regional adversaries such as Iraq during Desert Storm. Mr. Ochmanek categorized the US approach to military power projection during this period as expeditionary and sequential.
May 22, 2024
David Ochmanek
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SMA Speaker Series

Responses Against China's Coercion in the Indo-Pacific: Developing a Toolkit from the Philippines and Taiwan

China has escalated its aggressive and coercive tactics against smaller and less powerful states as part of its objective to become a regional hegemony.
April 24, 2024
Thomas J. Shattuck and Robin Michael U. Garcia
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SMA Speaker Series

The Sanctions Response to Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

The sanctions imposed on Russia in response to its past aggressive actions, such as the annexation of Crimea, targeted actors directly involved in its aggression. However, the current sanctions imposed on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine have a much broader scope, encompassing actors and institutions throughout Russian society.
April 11, 2024
Christine Abely
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SMA Speaker Series

Building Solutions to Post-conflict Stabilization

The optimal outcome of any military conflict is a lasting peace in the post-war period. Professor Heuser discusses insights from historical and ongoing conflicts that shed light on the factors influencing the establishment of enduring peace.
March 6, 2024
Dr. Beatrice Heuser
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SMA Speaker Series

The Future of US-Russian Relations

Even in the event of a military defeat suffered by Russia at the hands of Ukraine, it will continue to pose a formidable adversary to the US for the foreseeable future.
February 23, 2024
Thomas Graham
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SMA Speaker Series

Why, What, and How Free Societies Must Develop Effective Deterrence of Actors Intending Bad Ends Given Our GenAI Era

The advent of widespread internet access and the emergence of new forms of generative AI (GenAI) have broken down the physical boundaries that once separated international and intranational communities.
March 13, 2024
Dr. David A. Bray
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SMA Speaker Series

On Persuasion

During his presentation, Mr. Wouters delved into the original model developed by the Cialdini Institute, alongside two recently-devised tools tailored for assessing a target audience’s interests and executing an influence campaign.
February 6, 2024
Bas Wouters
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SMA Speaker Series

China and the Global South: Big Ambitions, Big Challenges

China’s economic slowdown coupled with its ambition to continuously compete with the US both economically and politically is compelling Beijing to intensify its efforts to increase political influence in the Global South. Mr. Schuman, who authored an article on why China will struggle to win over the Global South and how India can aid the US in countering China’s efforts, suggested that China’s ultimate geopolitical goal is to reshape the current political world order.
February 27, 2024
Michael Schuman
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SMA Speaker Series

Deterrence and Space Warfare

The strategy of space warfare is a subset of general warfare strategy; therefore, the ideas of deterrence, compellence, and dissuasion have applicability in the space domain.
January 4, 2024
Dr. John Klein
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SMA Speaker Series

AI-Driven Expert-Validated Threat and Foreign Influence Assessments

Seerist developed an artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled threat intelligence platform that utilizes information from open-source resources to identify, monitor, and track global threats.
January 25, 2024
Ms. Jacki Davenport (Seerist)
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SMA Speaker Series

Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis (ABM) and its Ties to Hamas

Wilayat Sinai (WS), formerly known as Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis (ABM), is an Egyptian-based extremist group that is active in the Sinai Peninsula. The group seeks to influence the region’s politics and establish a state of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).
July 12, 2023
Dr. Zana Gul (University of Stirling)
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SMA Speaker Series

The Evolution of Commercial Drones and Security: Why You Should Care!

Drones are continuously revolutionizing the modern battlefield and have since they were first introduced. Some battlefield applications for drones are obvious, such as the RQ-4 Global Hawk, which are used to carry large payloads and are specifically designed for surveillance and warfighting. However, drones designed for the recreation or service industry and readily available online are also being used on the battlefield with increasing frequency. These commercial drones pose a unique threat to the security of military and commercial entities. They can be cheaply and quickly made—even in someone’s garage—while also being able to carry dangerous payloads. Mr. Hambling emphasized that for this and other reasons, cheap commercial electronics are changing the way that the US and other actors conduct warfare. Ukraine was mentioned by the participants as a testing ground for the mass production, repurposing, and use of commercial drone use in modern conflicts.
November 29, 2023
Bill Edwards, David Hambling, and Zachary Kallenborn
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SMA Speaker Series

Alternative Ukrainian Future Trajectories: Implications for Russia and the West

Dr. Graeme Herd at the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies is conducting multiple workshops and seminars, creating predicted pathways for war in Ukraine, using open-source materials. Dr. Herd identified five potential future pathways for the war in Ukraine, being: Ukrainian victory, Russian victory, protracted conflict, frozen conflict, and negotiated peace.
June 22, 2023
‍Dr. Graeme P. Herd
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SMA Speaker Series

Influence and Perception Management Office

The Influence and Perception Management Office (IPMO) is a young office within the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Intelligence and Security (OUSD I&S). However, the need for an organization managing the US Armed Forces’ messaging has been debated for two decades among military and civilian leaders. The office’s first acting director, Mr. James Holly, emphasized that the evolving modern threat landscape has only increased the need for the IPMO over that time. During the years of IPMO’s creation, three Secretaries of Defense, under two administrations, signed off on its establishment, underscoring the need for this kind of office.
October 3, 2023
Mr. James Holly
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SMA Speaker Series

Why Trust Matters in AI? How Can We Achieve It?

The capabilities and implications of artificial intelligence are frequently discussed throughout all sectors of society. Among the many questions asked is, how can human users trust AI? Dr. Bray emphasized that the first step in understanding whether humans can trust AI, is to define trust. Individuals will readily give their trust to either a person or organization if they perceive benevolence, competence, and integrity. While well-programmed AI can imitate having these traits, it cannot possess them. It is better to think of AI as an alien interaction rather than a human interaction. This is because AI is a computationally-based program that works differently than a human brain, making it impossible for AI to possess these traits or express real emotions. It is not surprising that humans have tried to attribute real intelligence to AI, because of a tendency to anthropomorphize both objects and animals. To understand the current state of AI, it is important to understand its evolution during the last two decades. Dr. Bray identified four separate significant evolutionary stages during his presentation. The first of these stages was during the early 2000s when AI’s main purpose was to better understand human decision-making. The last evolutionary period was from 2017-2019 and focused on counter-disinformation. AI uses large language models (LLMs) to read and process data. Dr. Bray emphasized the need to use what he called AI-PRAMs (Probe, Reason, and Assess Models) to test the LLM’s findings against existing and real-time insights. He also stated that generative AI should never be used to make decisions regarding someone’s health or national security. A human decisionmaker should always be involved in those situations. He stated that the Turing test is usually used to assess the effectiveness of AI’s ability to trick the user into believing they are acting with an intelligent lifeform. Dr. Bray suggested that the Turing test may not be the best test for assessing the usefulness of AI. Instead, a test could be used that does not focus on deception, but rather the AI’s ability to help humans make decisions.
October 5, 2023
Dr. David Bray
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SMA Speaker Series

The Minds and Actions of Devoted Actors and the Will to Fight: A Behavioral and Brain Studies Approach to War and Extreme Group Conflict

What drives warfighters to make costly sacrifices—including their lives—is a long-standing question that military and civilian leaders have tried to answer. Dr. Atran explained that this question can be studied through two different psychological models: 1) rational choice theory and 2) the devoted actor model. He argued that the devoted actor model is most suitable when assessing why people are willing to make costly sacrifices. When fighters decide that they are ready to freely give their lives, it is rarely a rational decision. Instead, it is a result of their devotion to the values that they hold most sacred. Understanding an individual’s sacred values is contingent on many factors, including how fused that individual’s identity is to that of a group. Individuals whose identities are completely fused with that of a single group are the most likely to give their lives in support of that group’s values.
September 12, 2023
Dr. Scott Atran (University of Michigan)
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SMA Speaker Series

US Command Perspectives on Campaigning in Support of Integrated Deterrence

The complex nature of the modern threat environment and geopolitical competition, especially competition in the gray zone, has caused many scholars and military leaders to study how all Combatant Commands can combine their resources and capabilities to conduct effective integrated deterrence. This panel was comprised of the authors of a SMA Perspectives Publication: U.S. Command Perspectives on Campaigning in Support of Integrated Deterrence (Volume IV). During this panel the authors, from USAFRICOM, USCYBERCOM, NORAD and USNORTHCOM, USSOCOM, and USSTRATCOM commands, addressed how individually and cumulatively the Combatant Commands can best conduct integrated deterrence in a sustained campaign. The speakers detailed how a successful long-term campaign will create enduring advantages for the US and its allies across the many warfighting domains.
August 10, 2023
Ms. Michele Wolfe (USAFRICOM), Drs. Emily Goldman and Michael Warner (USCYBERCOM), Mr. James “JJ” Jenista (USNORTHCOM and NORAD), Mr. Robert Jones (USSOCOM), Mr. Howard Simkin (USASOC), Ms. Kayse Jansen (USSTRATCOM)
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SMA Speaker Series

Update on the sUAS Ecosystem: Understanding the Basics: Vulnerability Assessment, Detection, CUAS Technology, and Law

Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) are still a relatively new technology and an even newer commercial product; however, the growth of the UAV market has been immense. During the last 13 years, there have been 1.7 million UAVs registered in 100 countries. Of these, 75% are for consumer or commercial use, increasing their prevalence in modern civil society. However, commercial UAVs have the capability to be used by the state militaries and to carry out attacks by violent non-governmental organizations. Because of these capabilities, many states have concerns over the growing commonality of commercial UAVs. Some of these concerns come from past assassination attempts on state leaders using UAVs. Col (Ret) Edwards emphasized that the war in Ukraine has given combatants a wealth of new case studies for both the development and employment of UAVs in combat. Ukraine itself has become an epicenter for UAV development.
July 20, 2023
Colonel (Ret) Bill Edwards (Building Intelligence Inc.)
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SMA Speaker Series

Artificial Intelligence and Global Power

The development of artificial intelligence (AI) has drastically increased in speed and scope. The speed at which AI is being developed is increasing its implications for its use in militaries and economic competition between countries. AI will inevitably play a strong role in the US-China great power competition. Chinese president, Xi Jinping, even stated that technology and science is the main battlefield on which countries fight. Past industrialization has influenced past great power competitions. For example, Great Britain and Germany industrialized more quickly than Russia during the 18th century, surpassing Russia and becoming the two strongest European economies. Dr. Scharre commented that despite China’s rapid development of AI, the US still has a strong scientific lead on its main geopolitical rival and is in a strong position to retain its lead. The competition for AI dominance will likely be decided by four factors: a) data collection, b) hardware and chip development, c) talent retention, and d) institutional strength.
June 28, 2023
Dr. Paul Scharre (CNAS)
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SMA Speaker Series

Safety and Security of Nuclear Installations in Ukraine and Implications for Future Conflicts

The war in Ukraine is raising questions about the security of Ukraine’s nuclear power plants and the safety of civilians who are in their proximity. Military and civilian leaders in other countries that possess nuclear power plants are examining how litigation could protect their own facilities during future conflicts. Ms. Dolzikova stated that this discussion has intensified since Russia occupied the Chornobyl Exclusion Zone and captured the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) during the early stages of its invasion of Ukraine. The ZNPP is still under Russian occupation, forcing collaboration between Ukrainian and Russian nuclear scientists, Ukrainian workers at ZNPP, the International Atomic Energy Agency, and the Russian occupiers to ensure the plant’s safety and security. Since Russia’s take-over, all six ZNPP nuclear reactors have been shut down. One reactor is in a “hot shutdown,” allowing it to produce steam. Russian nuclear scientists are insisting that it is necessary for this reactor to produce steam for the safety of the power plant, but Ukrainian scientists claim that a “hot shutdown” is an unnecessary hazard. They claim that keeping the reactor in this state is reducing the time window that workers would have to divert a catastrophe during a systems failure.
August 1, 2023
Ms. Darya Dolzikova (RUSI)
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SMA Speaker Series

The United States and Regional Great Power Rivalry: Can America Still Pass the Mearsheimer test?

International relations (IR) experts widely perceive the US global political influence to be in a decline, especially in regions farther from the US. However, state actors who are gaining influence in their home regions are experiencing their own geopolitical roadblocks. Dr. Katz highlighted the past work of IR theorist, John Mearsheimer, who created a standard for measuring an actor’s great power strength and influence in regions across the world. Dr. Mearsheimer’s work argues that the US is the only nation to achieve hegemony in one region (the Western Hemisphere) and be able to prevent any other great power from gaining hegemony in any other region. Dr. Katz argued that the question is no longer if the US can grow its own geopolitical influence in regions, but if it can keep its adversaries from increasing theirs.
July 25, 2023
Dr. Mark Katz (Schar School of Policy and Government, George Mason University)
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SMA Speaker Series

Beyond the Wire: US Military Deployments and Host Country Public Opinion

The presence of a US military base in a host country naturally increases interactions between that host country’s citizens and US military personnel. These interactions occur in many countries, partly because the US has maintained a 25% deployment rate since the end of WWII. Host countries—especially the local communities around the base—get a significant economic boost. US military personnel often try to use local contractors. However, there are many factors that affect the local sentiment towards US military personnel in these countries. Dr. Martinez Machain identifies these factors by using survey data from 14 countries in her new book, Beyond the Wire: US Military Deployments and Host Country Public Opinion.
June 27, 2023
Dr. Carla Martinez Machain (University at Buffalo, SUNY)
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SMA Speaker Series

The Ukrainian Army is Leveraging Online Influencers. Can the U.S. Military?

The war in Ukraine has demonstrated how cooperation between a country’s military and prominent social media influencers can be a useful tool for harnessing narrative control relating to conflicts. Dr. Helmus argued that Ukraine has been out-performing Russia in its ability to create and disseminate effective narratives surrounding the ongoing war. The success of Ukraine’s information operations is in part due to its tactic of leveraging civilian and military influencers who regularly post on social media. These influencers use their platform to share posts that highlight the loss of innocent life during Russian attacks, the resilience of Ukraine’s civilian population, and the success of Ukrainian military operations. These information operations come at virtually no cost to Ukraine because most creators are posting videos on their own volition. Dr. Helmus commented that while researchers have not been able to empirically confirm the positive effects of these social media operations, Ukrainian officials have emphasized their importance on the battlefield. While Ukraine has recently been using its media to great effect, the practice of leveraging influencers on social media is a well-used marketing strategy.
June 6, 2023
Dr. Todd Helmus (RAND)
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SMA Speaker Series

A Restraint Approach to U.S. China Policy

Although the US-China competition has global economic and political implications, it is still primarily focused on the Asia-Pacific region. If this strategic competition escalates to armed conflict, then it will become incredibly costly to both the US and China. Dr. Swaine presented two future pathways for this rivalry to take that avoid armed conflict. He emphasized that avoiding conflict must involve restraint from both actors, but especially the US. Exercising restraint will help the US achieve several objectives, including a) constructing a new national public narrative on national security, b) reallocating national security resources, c) maximizing cooperation with other nations, and d) augmenting economic openness and stability. Maximizing cooperation among different states, in particular, is becoming increasingly important as the world becomes much more multipolar.
June 1, 2023
Michael Swaine (Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft)
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SMA Speaker Series

Cold Peace: Avoiding the New Cold War

US and China are considered by many analysts and scholars to be in a second Cold War. Dr. Doyle specified that there are four types of political relationships—hot war, cold war, cold peace, and warm peace. If countries are in a hot war, then they are engaging in open military conflict. If they are in a warm peace, then they have mutual respect for each other and participate in peaceful competition that allows for frequent bilateral cooperation. An example of two actors who are currently in warm peace are the US and EU. Dr. Boyle argued that the US and China should work towards ending their current cold war and entering a stage of cold peace. This cold peace would still lack bilateral US-China cooperation and shared legitimacy, but it would involve no subversive activities, such as industrial espionage.
May 31, 2023
Dr. Michael Doyle (Columbia University)
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SMA Speaker Series

Ethical and National Security Implications of Genetic Weapons

At times, biotechnology appears to blend science fiction and reality. The potential warfighting applications of biotechnology and the size of the bioeconomy has made biotechnology a focus point of the US-China rivalry. Dr. Biberman described the different steps and viewpoints of both nations relating to biotechnology and bioengineered weaponry. Since 2006, Chinese military officials have commented on the potential benefits of integrating biotechnology into the armed forces. A current perception is that China is one step ahead of the US. China focused on military-civil fusion during the 1990s and developed a five-year bioeconomic plan for 2021-2025. However, Dr. Biberman clarified that the US retains some dominance. The Biden Administration has acted to ensure the US remains ahead of China, including signing an executive order to advance biotechnology and biomanufacturing innovation. The order is designed to grow the US bioeconomy while also ensuring that this growth is achieved sustainably, safely, and ethically.
May 24, 2023
Dr. Yelena Biberman
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SMA Speaker Series

Cognitive Threat States of Key Actors and the Psychology of International Crises

Studies that use discourse analysis can show both the cognitive and motivational changes in a country’s leadership and the overall complexity of crises. Mr. Morrison conducted research on the integrative complexity (IC) of American, British, and Russian leaders during international crises. Every crisis was examined from each actor’s point of view, so each actor has a different IC score for each crisis. High IC scores relating to crises are associated with leaders expressing flexibility, searching for more information, indecisiveness, and recognizing the legitimacy of opposing views. Low IC scores are associated with leaders’ expressing inflexibility, close-mindedness, and decisiveness. Mr. Morrison gave several examples of different crises and their IC, including the least and most complex. The crisis with the lowest IC score was the Gulf of Tonkin (1964) from the US perspective and the crisis with the highest IC score was the remilitarization of the Rhineland (1936) from the UK perspective. Several of Mr. Morrison’s top takeaways were that crises triggered by violent events are associated with low IC scores, while crises that pose an existential threat are associated with high IC scores.
May 16, 2023
Dr. Larry Kuznar (NSI, Inc.); Tom Rieger (NSI, Inc.); Bradford Morrison (University of British Columbia)
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SMA Speaker Series

Credibility, Organizational Politics, and Crisis Decision Making

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Don Casler (Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs, Brown University) as part of its SMA General Speaker Series.Civilian and military leaders have always been concerned about credibility and integrity. However, they often view credibility very differently. Dr. Casler commented that the research community too frequently asks if leaders care about credibility and not why they care. He also argued two hypotheses: 1) that civilian diplomats are more likely to conceptualize credibility as a metric of reputation than military leaders, and 2) civilian diplomats are more likely than military officials to advocate for the use of force during crisis. He emphasized that credibility itself is conceptually vague and that how state leaders calculate each other’s credibility is fiercely debated.
May 17, 2023
Don Casler (Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs, Brown University)
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SMA Speaker Series

Military-Intelligence Relations: Explaining the Oxymoron

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Jeffrey Rogg(Joint Special Operations University) as part of its SMA General Series.The professionalization of the US intelligence community has been a long process and frequently limited by the civilian-military relationship. The relationship between the military and intelligence community has historically been confrontational. This is because spying and gathering intelligence was considered dishonorable compared to conventional warfighting. Dr. Rogg pointed out that despite this, intelligence gathering was mentioned in historical military literature, including Homer’s ‘The Iliad’ and Sun Tzu’s ‘The Art of War.’ Intelligence only became professionalized during the 1900s alongside global industrialization. Intelligence gathering became more important during the industrial revolution because nations had larger armies, communication became easier with the invention of the telegraph, and travel became faster with the development of the railway. The US first created the Office of Naval Intelligence during 1882, modeling it after European nations’ own intelligence agencies. The US intelligence community developed slowly, with military officers moonlighting as intelligence officers in time of war. As the intelligence community developed, questions over whether it should be controlled by the military or civilian sectors began to surface.
April 26, 2023
Dr. Jeffrey Rogg (Joint Special Operations University)
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SMA Speaker Series

Insights on 20 Years of Counterinsurgency Research

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Elizabeth Radziszewski (University of Maryland, National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START)) as part of its SMA General Speaker Series.Through the 2000s and 2010s, terrorism was a prevalent topic of research among academics, creating a deep pool of peer-reviewed sources. A group of researchers from the University of Maryland, National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) conducted a review of literature from the last 20 years on the study of counterinsurgency (COIN). The pool of literature was comprised of mostly peer-reviewed journal articles—such as Small Wars & Insurgencies—75% of which empirically tested models on government effectiveness relating to COIN. The lever of government power most studied in relation to COIN is the use of military forces. Dr. Radziszewski emphasized that understudied levers of government power must be examined further. These levers of power include a) economic, b) diplomatic, c) legal, and d) financial tools.
April 18, 2023
Dr. Elizabeth Radziszewski (University of Maryland START, Irregular Warfare and Conflict Assessment Group)
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SMA Speaker Series

US Military Assistance to Ukraine in 2022: Impact Assessment

SMA hosted a speaker session with Ms. Egle E. Murauskaite (University of Maryland, ICONS) as part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series. The US has given military support to Ukraine as it defends against a Russian invasion. This support includes arms transfers, training for soldiers, and intelligence sharing during information operations. The US has been able to escalate its military support for Ukraine while also avoiding a direct military response from Russia. Also, the assumption that US arms transfers would increase arms smuggling in the region has been proven false. Instead, human trafficking has increased; however, this is a common war-time phenomenon. The aid that US and allies gave to Ukraine before the war has significantly influenced the conflict’s current state. This aid included peace-time military training of troops from 2014-2020.
March 15, 2023
Murauskaite, E. (University of Maryland, ICONS)
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SMA Speaker Series

Sino-Russian Relations: Articulating a World Order

China and Russia are frequently considered to have an alliance against the West; however, their actual relationship is one of convenience. China and Russia’s friendship has only been in place for a short time. Historically, the two countries have been rivals, disputing over territories and boundaries. The intensity of these disputes has weakened since the mid-1990s, however, due to the nations’ new political relationship. Their present-day partnership is based on the desire for a multi-polar world that weakens the US’ status as a superpower. However, their vision differs on how this multi-polar world order is comprised. The difference between China’s and Russia’s world view is the role that each other’s political rivals, other than the US, would play.
March 1, 2023
Garcia, Z. (Associate Professor of Security Studies, Department of National Security and Strategy, US Army War College); Modlin, K. (Instructor, Western Kentucky University)
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SMA Speaker Series

When Democracy and Security Interests Clash: Hard Choices for US Policymakers

The US government’s objectives of protecting its security interests and promoting democratic ideals abroad sometimes coincide (e.g., Ukraine), while at other times, they appear at odds. The US spends billions of dollars per year on foreign aid to support democratic values and human rights efforts. However, it also gives large amounts of aid and support to countries that have weakening democracies, human rights issues, or full autocracies in the name of national and regional security. The US has encountered this dilemma since the Cold War and the Reagan administration, Mr. Press stated. During this time, the US viewed supporting democratic values as pivotal while also partnering with oppressive autocracies like Chile to combat the USSR. The three major drivers of this dilemma in recent years, according to Mr. Press, include a) the US’s interest in maintaining stability in the MENA region, b) countering violent extremist organizations, and c) managing strategic competition with China.
February 1, 2023
Carothers, T. (Co-director, Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace); Press, B. (Non-resident Research Analyst, Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)
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SMA Speaker Series

The Return of Great Power War: Scenarios of Systemic US-China War

How a war between the US and China over Taiwan’s sovereignty would develop is a frequently debated subject by scholars and military leaders as China continues to deny the island nation’s autonomy. War games are an integral part of how decision makers develop their grand strategy; however, war games are a far cry from actual warfare, Dr. Heath stated. Dr. Heath and his RAND colleagues instead analyzed academic literature and Chinese documents in order to examine how a US-China conflict over Taiwan would occur at both a high and low intensity. The intensity refers to how aggressively China and the US would attack each other’s armed forces inside and outside of the theater. Dr. Heath stated that if any military conflict between the US and China were to occur, it would be a) long lasting, b) multidimensional, and c) transcontinental. Furthermore, regardless of the war’s intensity, the outcome would heavily influence who the global political and economic leader will be.
January 11, 2023
Heath, T. (RAND)
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SMA Speaker Series

Do National Security Communication Campaigns Work? Taking a Lesson from the Public Health Sector

The sample size of communication campaigns in support of military objectives—like the deradicalization of a population—is small. However, there is a large sample of case studies focusing on communication campaigns in support of public health initiatives. Communication campaigns assisting public health initiatives are not perfectly analogous to those made in assistance of military operations, but Dr. Helmus argued that examining their findings and best practices can still be helpful. When looking at the few communication campaigns targeting a population for security measures, the results are promising. One key example highlighting this success is a campaign in Nigeria that focuses on deradicalization and changing the perception of kidnap victims.
December 14, 2022
Helmus, T. (Senior Behavioral Scientist, RAND)
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SMA Speaker Series

Intellectual Anarchy: The Art of Disruptive Innovation

Innovation in research and development is often preceded by changes in how researchers think about the world around them. Dr. Sullivan discussed how synergy between academics and workers in the field helped create a more innovative culture in his own company, Oceanit. He emphasized that time spent in the field is crucial for researchers to truly understand what a client needs. Even when a company believes it understands the client’s needs, there can always be surprises, which Dr. Sullivan compared to Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s rise from comedian to wartime leader. Providing further context, Dr. Sullivan stated that Oceanit works across many sectors, including energy, aerospace, and engineering consultation. The company consistently collaborates with 70 universities and many different companies, such as Shell, as well.
December 13, 2022
Sullivan, P. (CEO and Founder, Oceanit)
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SMA Speaker Series

Semiconductors, China, Taiwan, and the US Policy Debate: Intersecting Technological, Economic Security, and Geopolitical Realities

China and Taiwan’s political relationship is highly confrontational; however, China’s dependence on advanced semi-conductors produced in Taiwan acts as a defensive shield for Taiwan. Semi-conductors are one of the most complex technological tools ever created. Dr. Cronin emphasized that the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TMSL) is responsible for most of the current semiconductor industry. Taiwan provides 70% of China’s semi-conductor needs. China has the industrial infrastructure and the capability to mass-produce semi-conductor chips; however, they lack the means to produce the highly advanced chips used in advanced weapons systems. It is believed that most of China’s advanced missiles include Taiwanese semi-conductor chips that were produced under contract with the US. The US owns much of the intellectual property associated with the semiconductor chip industry.
November 9, 2022
Cronin, R. (The Stimson Center)
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SMA Speaker Series

Threat Inflation and the Taiwan Issue: The Need for an Active Denial Strategy, Plus Assurances

The US faces many tough dilemmas on how to build military deterrence measures against China in the Asia-Pacific, protect Taiwan’s sovereignty, and not place Japan or other allies in politically compromising positions. Dr. Swaine commented that building deterrence through overall US military capabilities and the individual armed forces is a multi-faceted issue, involving both military deterrence and credible reassurance measures to avoid inadvertent conflict. Three ideal types of military deterrence approaches identified were: a) punishment, b) control, and c) denial. Dr. Heginbotham mentioned that the DoD’s military strategy has been slowly and consistently shifting toward active denial, but that more remains to be done. Active denial relies on phased operations and divisions of labor with allies among other principles. Effectively utilizing active denial’s principles will include some restructuring and aligning of the armed forces.
November 10, 2022
Swaine, M. (East Asia Program, Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft); Heginbotham, E. (Center for International Studies, MIT)
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SMA Speaker Series

Transcultural Predictors of Will to Fight

Combatants’ willingness to fight and sacrifice their lives, family, or personal property has altered the expected outcome of military conflicts throughout history. An opponent’s unexpected will to fight has affected the US in many of its regional conflicts, such as Vietnam and Korea. Recent conflicts in Iraq and Ukraine have further demonstrated that leaders in the US and other countries have a poor understanding of what constitutes a combatant’s will to fight and its effects on the battlefield. Most research to understand populations utilize mass survey data collection, which lacks the scientific rigor that analytical study of this topic requires. The research by Artis International uses online tools and social media, brain scans, and in-person interviews to understand what affects individuals’ will to fight. The studies focus on right-wing nationalists in Spain, jihadist fighters, and Ukrainian soldiers defending their homeland.
October 12, 2022
Atran, S. (Co-founder, Artis International; Emeritus Director of Research, France’s National Centre for Scientific Research)
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SMA Speaker Series

A World Emerging from Pandemic: Implications for Intelligence and National Security (Part 1 of 2)

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Kacper Gradon (Associate Professor, Department of Cybersecurity, Faculty of Electronics and Information Technology, Warsaw University of Technology (Poland)), Dr. Layla M. Hashemi (Researcher & Data Analyst, Terrorism, Transnational Crime and Corruption Center (TraCCC), George Mason University), Ms. Sarah Meo (PhD Candidate, Public Policy, Schar School of Policy of Government, George Mason University), and Dr. Michael Vlahos (Senior Fellow, The Institute for Peace and Diplomacy) as part of its SMA NIU Panel Discussion.
October 5, 2022
Gradon, K. (Associate Professor, Department of Cybersecurity, Faculty of Electronics and Information Technology, Warsaw University of Technology (Poland)); Hashemi, L. (Researcher & Data Analyst, Terrorism, Transnational Crime and Corruption Center (TraCCC), George Mason University); Meo, S. (PhD Candidate, Public Policy, Schar School of Policy of Government, George Mason University); Vlahos, M. (Senior Fellow, The Institute for Peace and Diplomacy)
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SMA Speaker Series

A World Emerging from Pandemic: Implications for Intelligence and National Security (Part 2 of 2)

The COVID-19 pandemic occurred at a time when the global community was more physically and digitally connected than ever before. Mr. Kerbel reflected that those working in the information community (IC) believed that the pandemic would alter their collective worldview and modus operandi. However, he believes that while a larger portion of the IC works from home than ever before, the pandemic did not actually change the IC’s worldview. Instead, while global COVID-19 rates have started to decrease, members of the IC have already started to shift their mindset back to Cold War-era thinking. This is partly because the IC is built to handle complicated issues well, but it is not currently structured to achieve its objectives in a modern world comprised of complex systems. For example, the cyber domain and digital realm did not exist during the Cold War. These developments have led to the addition of an entirely new theatre of asymmetric warfare since the Cold War. Mr. Kerbel also argued that even though some members in the IC believe that countries are going through a phase of deglobalization and that the US is decoupling from China, neither of these hypotheses are true.
October 6, 2022
Kerbel, J. (Professor of Practice, National Intelligence University); Schenker, J. (Chairman, The Futurist Institute; President, Prestige Economics); Brown, Z. (Founder, Consilient Strategies)
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SMA Speaker Series

The Berkeley Protocol as a New Guide for Strengthening Digital Investigation Methods

The increasing proliferation of smart phones and internet availability is changing the way that digital investigations are occurring, especially in remote areas. While the digital realm has existed since the invention of radio, video and satellite imagery have given digital investigators new tools within the past few decades. New tools and the creation of social media have also resulted in the need for new global standards regarding the collection and handling of digital information for legal purposes. These new standards are encapsulated in the Berkley Protocol. Dr. Koenig explained that the Berkley Protocol—the first international standard used in digital investigation and prosecution—is used to give investigators a starting point regarding the quality standards of information being collected and how to legally go undercover on social media.
August 24, 2022
Koenig, A. (Executive Director, Human Rights Center, UC Berkeley School of Law; Lecturer, UC Berkeley School of Law; Co-founder, UC Berkeley Investigations Lab); Freeman, L. (Director of Technology, Law, and Policy, Human Rights Center, UC Berkeley School of Law)
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SMA Speaker Series

Russia’s Revolution in Intelligence Affairs

Decision makers and military strategists expect artificial intelligence (AI) to change how war is fought. AI is a blanket term for several technologies and their capabilities. Many people believe AI’s defining feature is its level of autonomy; however, AI’s main function is actually as a decision-making tool.
August 16, 2022
Jonsson, O. (Director, Phronesis Analysis; Researcher, Swedish Defence University)
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SMA Speaker Series

Long Shadows: Deterrence in a Multipolar Nuclear Age

Dr. Pettyjohn explained that nuclear deterrence is frequently examined in the context of a bilateral competition rather than a multipolar competition between three or more nuclear capable states.
July 26, 2022
Pettyjohn, S. (Senior Fellow & Director of the Defense Program, Center for a New American Security [CNAS])
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SMA Speaker Series

Identifying and Exploiting Fleeting Opportunities in Complex Systems

Modern strategic competition is forcing decision-making to occur more quickly in an increasingly cluttered information environment.
July 7, 2022
John Bicknell
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SMA Speaker Series

The Real Way to Succeed in a Rivalry: The Societal Foundations of National Competitiveness

A country’s societal dynamism is directly linked to its international competitiveness, according to Dr. Mazarr. There are seven societal characteristics related to a country’s international competitiveness: national ambition and will, unified national identity, shared opportunity, activity, effective government institutions, learning and adapting mentally, and diversity and pluralism.
July 6, 2022
Michael Mazarr
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SMA Speaker Series

Autonomous Weapons and the Future of War

The use of autonomous weapons systems is frequently debated by countries’ leadership, military personnel, and scholars because of its potentially destructive capabilities.
June 3, 2022
Paul Scharre
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SMA Speaker Series

Competition in the Gray Zone: Countering China’s Coercion Against US Allies and Partners in the Indo-Pacific

SMA hosted a speaker session with Ms. Cristina Garafola (Associate Policy Researcher, RAND) as part of its SMA INDOPACOM Series.
May 24, 2022
Cristina Garafola
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SMA Speaker Series

How America Can Seize Its Great-Power Opportunity

Past US foreign security policies primarily focused on adversaries’ capabilities and objectives rather than its own ability to project its desired messages and worldview.
May 4, 2022
Mr. Ali Wyne
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SMA Speaker Series

Multi-Actor Deterrence: Why Multiple Perceptions Matter

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Michelle Black (Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, University of Nebraska Omaha; Director for Workforce Development and Education, National Counterterrorism, Innovation, Technology and Education (NCITE); Research Fellow, National Strategic Research Institute, University of Nebraska; Co-Editor, Space and Defense Journal) as part of its SMA STRATCOM Academic Alliance Series.
April 26, 2022
Dr. Michelle Black Biography
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SMA Speaker Series

The Evolving Requirements for Extended Deterrence and Allied Assurance in the Indo-Pacific

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Shane Smith (Director, Air Force Institute for National Security Studies, US Air Force Academy) and Dr. Justin Anderson (Senior Policy Fellow, Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction, National Defense University) as part of its SMA INDOPACOM Speaker Series.
April 27, 2022
Dr. Justin Anderson and Dr. Shane Smith
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SMA Speaker Series

Barriers to Strategic Success in US Special Operations Forces Counterterrorism

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Katy A. Lindquist (Principal Research Scientist, NSI) and Dr. Barnett S. Koven (Data Science Manager, Deloitte Consulting; Adjunct Faculty Member, Joint Special Operations University) as part of its SMA SOCOM Speaker Series.
February 21, 2022
Dr. Katie A. Lindquist and Dr. Barnett S. Koven
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SMA Speaker Series

Secret Innovation

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Michael Joseph (Assistant Professor of Political Science, UC San Diego) and Dr. Michael Poznansky (Associate Professor, Strategic & Operational Research Department, US Naval War College) as part of its SMA General Speaker Series.
April 13, 2022
Dr. Michael Poznansky and Dr. Michael Joseph
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SMA Speaker Series

Killer Drones: Disruption Today, Destruction Tomorrow... The Future Is Now...

Commercial drones—which are permitted by governments for civilian use in many countries—are currently being used for military purposes in Ukraine.
April 7, 2022
Bill Edwards
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SMA Speaker Series

Degrees of Separation: Targeted Decoupling and the US-China Relationship

SMA hosted a speaker session with Ms. Stephanie Segal(Non-resident Senior Associate, Economics Program, CSIS) and Mr. Matthew Reynolds (Research Associate, Economics Program, CSIS) as part of its SMA General Speaker Series.
March 30, 2022
Stephanie Segal and Matthew Reynolds
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SMA Speaker Series

Escalation Management in Gray Zone Crises: A Proposed Toolkit

SMA hosted a speaker session with Mr. Devin Hayes Ellis (University of Maryland), Lt Gen (Ret) Robert Elder, PhD (George Mason University), and Dr. Allison Astorino-Courtois (NSI) as part of its SMA General Speaker Series.
March 22, 2022
Dr. Allison Astorino-Courtois and Lieutenant General Robert Elder (USAF, retired)
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SMA Speaker Series

Russian Information Operations and War in Ukraine—What Can We Expect and Do?

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Thomas Rid (Professor of Strategic Studies, Johns Hopkins University) and Mr. Peter Pomerantsev (Senior Fellow, Johns Hopkins University) as part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series.
March 17, 2022
Dr. Thomas Rid and Mr. Peter Pomerantsev
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SMA Speaker Series

Special Forces in Great Power Competition

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Jack Watling (Research Fellow, Royal United Services Institute (RUSI)) as part of its SMA General Speaker Series.
March 16, 2022
Dr. Jack Watling
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SMA Speaker Series

Stabilizing Great Power Rivalries

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Michael Mazarr (RAND) and Dr. Samuel Charap (RAND) as part of its SMA EUCOM/INDOPACOM Speaker Series.
March 3, 2022
Dr. Michael Mazarr and Dr. Samuel Charap
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SMA Speaker Series

China’s Nuclear Modernization and Its Implications

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Tong Zhao (Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) as part of its SMA INDOPACOM Speaker Series.
February 25, 2022
Tong Zhoa
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SMA Speaker Series

Complexity, Cognition, and Language: How Our Linguistic Habits Shape—and Distort—Our Understanding of Today’s Complex Strategic Environment

SMA hosted a speaker session with Mr. Josh Kerbel (National Intelligence University) as part of its SMA General Speaker Series.
March 1, 2022
Josh Kerbel
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SMA Speaker Series

Countering Violent Extremism in the US Military

There is a long history of US military personnel being targeted for recruitment by extremist organizations: even dating back to the beginnings of the Ku Klux Klan.
February 10, 2022
Todd C. Helmus
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SMA Speaker Series

Restrictive Deterrence in Cyberspace: Findings from a Series of Online Field Experiments

Cyber-attacks have increasingly become a more prevalent national security threat since 2000; however, deterrence literature rarely mentions cyberspace.
February 3, 2022
Dr. David Maimon
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SMA Speaker Series

Theater Information Advantage Element: A Construct To Gain Advantage Against Near-Peer Adversaries in Great Power Competition

For the US and its Western allies—including NATO—to effectively compete against adversaries, they must better integrate information operations (IO) into traditional military operations
January 28, 2022
MAJ Hancock, Col Neil Sleevi, and Jack Gaines
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SMA Speaker Series

Integrating Deterrence Across the Gray—Making It More Than Words

SMA hosted a speaker session with Mr. Robert Jones (USSOCOM), LTC Catherine Crombe (USSOCOM SOCCENT), and LTC Steven Ferenzi (USSOCOM SOCCENT) as part of its SMA General Speaker Series.
December 8, 2021
Lt. Col. Katie Crombe, Lt.Col. Steve Ferenzi, and Mr. Robert C. Jones
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SMA Speaker Series

The Operational Environment (2021-2030): Great Power Competition, Crisis, and Conflict

For the first time in twenty years, the US armed forces are shifting from mostly carrying out counter-insurgency operations to carrying out operations in support of US interests in great power competition.
January 12, 2022
Gerald (Jerry) Leverich
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SMA Speaker Series

The Real and Present Risk of Low-Yield Nuclear Weapons on the Battlefield

Russia’s and China’s status as near-peer nuclear competitors with the US is changing the reality of what a military conflict would look like.
January 12, 2022
Dr. Adam Lowther
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SMA Speaker Series

Renewal: From Crisis to Transformation in Our Lives, Work, and Politics

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Anne-Marie Slaughter (CEO, New America) as part of its SMA General Speaker Series.
December 18, 2021
Anne-Marie Slaughter
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SMA Speaker Series

Deterrence and Defense Strategy: Old Lessons and New Contexts

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Carter Malkasian (CNA) as part of its SMA STRATCOM Academic Alliance Speaker Session.
November 3, 2021
Dr Carter Malkasian
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SMA Speaker Series

Never Mind, We’ll Do It Ourselves: How a Team of Renegades Broke Rules, Shattered Barriers, and Launched the Drone Warfare Revolution

SMA hosted a speaker session with Mr. Alec Bierbauer (Blackrock Strategy, LLC) and Col Mark Cooter (USAF, Retired) as part of its SMA General Speaker Series.
November 9, 2021
Mark Cooter and Alec Bierbauer
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SMA Speaker Series

The Power of Will in International Conflict: How to Think Critically in Complex Environments

SMA hosted a speaker session with Wayne Michael (Mike) Hall (Brigadier General, US Army, Retired), Marc Finkelstein (Chief Scientist, Hughes Aircraft, Advanced Concepts Directorate, Space and Communications Group & President, FlightScience, LLC), and Gary Citrenbaum, PhD, (President/Chief Scientist of Systems Analytics, SoSACorp) as part of its SMA General Speaker Series.
November 4, 2021
Wayne Michael (Mike) Hall and Marc Finkelstein
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SMA Speaker Series

Cognitive Defense Against Massive Information Threats—Our Near Futures

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Nicholas Wright (University College London, Georgetown University) and Dr. Peter W. Singer (New America), as part of its SMA General Speaker Series.
October 29, 2021
Dr. Nicholas Wright and Dr. Peter Warren Singer
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SMA Speaker Series

Cyber Risks in Nuclear Escalation Scenarios

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Herb Lin (Hank J. Holland Fellow in Cyber Policy and Security, Hoover Institution & Senior Research Scholar, Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford University), as part of its SMA STRATCOM Academic Alliance Speaker Series.
October 29, 2021
Dr. Herbert Lin
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SMA Speaker Series

Russian Grand Strategy: Reality and Rhetoric

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Samuel Charap (Senior Political Scientist, RAND) and Ms. Dara Massicot (Senior Policy Researcher, RAND), as part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series.
October 15, 2021
Dr. Samuel Charap and Dara Massicot
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SMA Speaker Series

Global Health Diplomacy in the Time of COVID-19

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Erik Herron (Eberly Family Distinguished Professor of Political Science, West Virginia University) with Dr. Cynthia J. Buckley (Professor of Sociology & Faculty Affiliate of the Center for Russian, East European and Eurasian Studies and the European Studies Center, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign) as part of its SMA General Speaker Series.
August 24, 2021
Dr. Erik Herron and Dr. Cynthia J. Buckley
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SMA Speaker Series

Violent Extremism in America: Interviews with Former Extremists and their Families on Radicalization and Deradicalization

Dr. Brown stated that homegrown extremism has increased in the US during recent years. Both the lethality of attacks and number of domestic terrorist attacks have increased, which has resulted in several notable cases in recent history. The group’s presentation focused on identifying existential factors of radicalization, how individuals are radicalized, how individuals become deradicalized, and overall recommendations to counter radicalization. Dr. Helmus stated that financial challenges, mental health issues, and social factors such as marginalization are indicators of radicalization. Most of the 32 former extremists interviewed claimed they were radicalized through propaganda, music, literature, or social bonds with other extremists.
August 6, 2021
Todd C. Helmus and Ryan Brown
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SMA Speaker Series

China-US Competition: Measuring Global Influence

Measuring a country’s power has traditionally been done by primarily comparing the military strength of countries on a country level basis. However, Dr. Moyer stated that measuring a country’s true power is more nuanced and should include factors such as its ability to conduct trade and provide foreign aid. Also, the measure of a country’s power relative to another’s should be a bilateral measurement, which relies on quantifiable data. Other important factors include a country’s political will to influence others and the balance in the relationship between countries—this is a dyadic relationship which is affected by a country’s bandwidth for communication and willingness to interact.
August 6, 2021
Mathew Burrows and Collin Meisel
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SMA Speaker Series

Narrative Intelligence: Separate Signal from Noise

EdgeTheory’s methodology and technology combines human analysis and artificial intelligence to help people understand the theories, conversations, and narratives that shape their world. Mr. Griffith emphasized that people have been having conversations since the beginning of time; it’s the mediums through which conversations happen that are what changes. Furthermore, he argued that conversation is either an actor’s biggest asset or a liability in achieving their objectives. For an actor to effectively use conversation, they must understand their chosen form of communication, understand who is being influenced, and potentially control the narratives around them.
July 21, 2021
Greg Griffith
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SMA Speaker Series

Algorithms of Armageddon: What Happens When We Insert AI Into Our Military Weapons Systems?

SMA hosted a speaker session with CAPT George Galdorisi, USN (Ret) (Director of Strategic Assessments and Technical Futures, Naval Information Warfare Center Pacific (NIWC Pacific)) as a part of its SMA General Speaker Series. CAPT Samuel Tangredi, PhD, USN (Ret) (Leidos Chair of Future Warfare Studies & Professor of National, Naval, and Maritime Strategy, U.S. Naval War College) participated in the Q&A session, along with CAPT Galdorisi, after the conclusion of the brief.
June 3, 2021
CAPT George Galdorisi and Dr. Samuel J. Tangredi
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NSI Publications (Tagged: North America)

NSI Publication

Trajectory of U.S./North Korean Nuclear War

Hours after the Washington Post broke the story that North Korea may have miniaturized a nuclear warhead, enabling its ICBM to deliver a nuclear blow to U.S. soil, President Trump announced that if North Korea continues to provoke, will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen.”
Year Published:
2017
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NSI Publication

Smoke, Mirrors, and Mayhem: The Good Fight Remixed

The Army University Press created the Future Warfare Writing Program to generate ideas about possible complexities of future warfare, as presented in the U.S. Army Operating Concept.
Year Published:
2017
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NSI Publication

Discourse Insights into Future US-China Relations

The future of the US-China relationship seems increasingly uncertain, to say the least. Increased tensions between the two international powers were seemingly ignited when US President Donald Trump (President-elect at the time) engaged in a telephone call with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen on 2 December 2016
Year Published:
2017
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NSI Publication

African-American Women Depression & Ethnic Identity

This study examines direct, interactive, and indirect effects of racial identity and depression in a sample of 379 African American women
Year Published:
2010
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NSI Publication

Gangs, Violence, and Fear: Punitive Darwinism in El Salvador

This article evaluates the factors impacting support for tough on crime policies in El Salvador. Examining theoretical and empirical scholarly work, we look at how fear, together with social and political contexts drive public appetite for punitive policies towards criminals.
Year Published:
2022
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NSI Publication

SMA Perspectives Virtual Discussion

Please join SMA for its second SMA Perspectives Virtual Discussion: a two-hour companion event to our recently released SMA Perspectives volume, US versus China: Promoting “Constructive Competition” to Avoid “Destructive Competition.”
Year Published:
2021
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NSI Publication

Not Just Money: How Organised Crime, Violence, and Insecurity Are Shaping Emigration in Mexico, El Salvador, and Guatemala

This article utilises logistic regression analysis to determine the factors that influence people from Mexico, El Salvador, and Guatemala deciding to flee to other countries.
Year Published:
2022
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NSI Publication

A New US-Iran Nuclear Agreement: What are the Chances?

Most of the expert contributors agree that, though not a certainty, it appears likely that Iran will be willing to reengage in some form of nuclear negotiations with the United States at some point over the next five years.
Year Published:
2020
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NSI Publication

Gray Zone Trends in Colombia, Libya and Ukraine

This report employs frequentist statistical analysis in order to model the effects of various factors, including the type of actors (state, violent non-state actor (VNSA) or civilian) involved and the prevalence of kinetic activity, on (de-)escalatory trends in Gray Zone conflicts.
Year Published:
2017
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