Lawrence Kuznar

The increasing use of emotive themes and rhetorical devices (that amplify a message’s emotional effect) provide indicators of gray zone activities in speeches made by Eurasian regional leaders prior to and during the annexation of Crimea. Putin’s leading indicators, those of Crimean leaders and the Russian-supported President of Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych, are presented separately.

This report describes expert views on the existence and non-existence of space norms and the challenges and opportunities norms represent for peaceful space use. At the broadest level, norms are informal but generally accepted rules of behavior that are recognized and understood by a community, 3 in this case a community of nations. Norms can emerge from either formal or informal channels, as Jonty Kasku-Jackson of the National Security Space Institute argues. Informal means of norm development include persuasion emerging from being a good exemplar of norm-based behavior, such as: the “creation of domestic legislation and regulations that serve as a model for others to adopt, publication and acceptance of academic papers, and shaping the discussion during ‘Track 2’ (non- governmental, informal, and unofficial) conferences and meetings” (Kasku-Jackson). Formal rule development examples consist of: “negotiation and implementation of binding international treaties, non-binding codes of conduct, United Nations General Assembly Resolutions, and state declaratory policy” (Kasku-Jackson).

The increasing use of emotive themes and rhetorical devices (that amplify a message’s emotional effect) provide indicators of gray zone activities in speeches made by Chinese, Philippine, and Vietnamese government officials during peak times of conflict in the South China Sea from 2002 to 2016. The leading indicators and warnings for the Chinese, Philippine, and Vietnamese governments are presented separately, as well as findings regarding how their use of language reflects predominant national concerns.

This study addresses key questions posed in the SMA EUCOM project by using thematic analysis of speeches from leaders of state and non-state polities in Eastern Europe, Russia, and the Caucasus. The importance of an issue is measured by the density (mentions/words in speech) with which it is mentioned and the use of associated emotive language.

This report suggests potential types of actions and messages most likely to influence and deter Bashar al-Assad from using force in the ongoing Syrian civil war. This study is based on multidisciplinary discourse analyses of Bashar al-Assad’s speeches, and how he reacts to real events and verbal messages from external sources.

This report suggests potential types of actions and messages most likely to influence and deter Bashar al-Assad from using force in the ongoing Syrian civil war. This study is based on multidisciplinary analyses of Bashar al-Assad’s speeches, and how he reacts to real events and verbal messages from external sources.

The purpose of From the Mind to the Feet is to open a much deeper dialogue about gauging intent than currently exists ei- ther in operational or academic arenas. It is intended to serve military and civilian defense leaders, deterrence and policy planners, and practitioners with a review of the basic concepts and state-of-the-art understanding of intent. It is organized into two sections: operational and academic perspectives on intent.

It would be comforting to be able to find some constants, some footholds in our understanding of terrorism. It is, in fact, the element of mystery as to what drives people to collective violence that makes us uncomfortable -- that fills us with terror. Researchers, policy makers, those who must combat terrorism, and the public hope for some simple formula for radicalization, a program or set of programs that will prevent groups of people from deliberately targeting other people in order to meet their needs (political, economic, social, etc). There is no magic formula within this paper collection, but there are a variety of perspectives that, either in isolation or when integrated, provide new ways to think about terrorism and potentially to inform decisions that will abate this global phenomenon, not exacerbate it.

A corpus of Vladimir Putin’s speeches was drawn from his official Kremlin website. The corpus was examined using semi-automated discourse analysis to gauge Putin’s concerns with space and how these are articulated with general political and cultural issues. The primary findings from the discourse are presented as Putin’s perspectives and worldview with respect to the space domain and general themes.

A collection of Kim Jong Un’s speeches from 2012 to 2017, translated and published online by the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) were examined using semi-automated discourse analysis to gauge Kim Jong Un’s concerns in the space domain and how these concerns are articulated with general political and cultural themes. The primary findings from the discourse are presented as the DPRK’s (i.e., Kim Jong Un’s) perspectives and worldview with respect to the space domain and general themes.

Corpora from three sources were examined using semi-automated discourse analysis to gauge the Chinese government’s concerns in the space domain and how these interests are articulated with general political and cultural issues. The sources were releases from the Chinese MOFA (Ministry of Foreign Affairs) (2011 – 2017), stories reported by CPC (Communist Party of China) News (2013 – 2014), and two months of speeches by Chinese president Xi Jinping (2014). The primary findings from the discourse are presented as Chinese perspectives and worldview with respect to the space domain and general themes.

The context of this Report has to do with Russia’s use of nuclear ambiguity and implied nuclear threats leading up to and after its invasion of Ukraine—specifically, threats to escalate to the use of low-yield nuclear weapons to support conventional offensive operations for political or economic gains. It examines the implications of Russia’s behavior beyond the Ukraine conflict, in particular, what lessons might other actors have taken away from the Ukraine war regarding the utility of threatening the use of low-yield nuclear weapons. We have intentionally cast a wide net to include a diverse set of perspectives on a range of actors. More specific questions of interest for this volume include, among others:

The physical, social, political, economic, and cultural systems that comprise the operational environment interact in complex ways. The Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) Anticipating the Future Operational Environment (AFOE) project models this complexity with special relevance to US national security concerns. The AFOE team constructed a generic Global Exploitable Conditions Model (GECM) that captured this complexity as a system of nodes (or variables) and edges, which are the relationships between nodes. The generic model was then tailored to the specifics of the USAFRICOM AOR as the African Exploitable Conditions Model (AECM). This report describes a network analysis of the AECM that provides insight into important conditions and dynamics that impact USAFRICOM’s mission objectives.

We argue that the concept of escalation thresholds remains salient in national security and may be even more important than ever. However, the Cold War model is no longer useful given the multi-dimensional and complex nature of information in today’s world. We argue that escalation thresholds regarding information need to be conceived of in terms of complex systems. Qualitatively, analysts and decision makers must learn to intuit the dynamics of information in a complex world. Quantitatively, analysts must bring to bear complexity theory, and appropriate modeling and data collection. These changes have implications across the spectrum of activities that include doctrine, organization, training, materiel, leadership and education, personnel, facilities, and policy.

In July 2019, the Joint Requirements Oversight Council (JROC) endorsed a list of specific actions for the Operations in the Information Environment (OIE) DOTMLPF-P Change Recommendation (DCR). A requested action under item 1b asks for a “process to develop a baseline understanding of the IE (Information Environment) and subsequently modify the model of relevant actor perceptions, attitudes, and other elements that drive behaviors.”

NSI, Inc. interviewed seven subject matter experts and conducted additional background research in support of its analyses on Black Swans, Gray Rhinos, and current thinking about key factors and variables not typically included in political stability models (e.g., climate variables, the influence of illicit networks).

At the request of United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), SMA initiated a study to understand the strategic implications of destabilizing population dynamics within the Central Region. The effort examined drivers of instability in the region emerging from radicalization, great power competition, state-level instability, and black swan scenarios. This report integrates the research conducted by the teams listed on the front cover in response to USCENTCOM’s questions about great power competition. This report is intended to be a succinct, easily navigable representation of the exceptional work by the collective SMA team. Please click on the links embedded in the report to go directly to the research studies.

Four panelists with deep knowledge and experience in the USCENTCOM AOR and with complex systems modeling were asked to reflect on how to think about and anticipate surprises in the USCENTCOM area of responsibility (AOR), especially Black Swan surprises that are the product of non-linear relationships between interacting variables. The panelists shared a wealth of knowledge on the region and complexity. Key takeaways included:

Strategic surprise, the realization that one’s knowledge and assumptions are wrong and the adversary has an upper hand, is a national security nightmare (Amidon, 2005; Defense Science Board, 2015; Handel, 1984). Classic examples include Pearl Harbor, Sputnik, the Cuban Missile Crisis, and the September 11, 2001 terror attacks.

The Middle Eastern region of the USCENTCOM area of responsibility (AOR) currently has approximately 20 million displaced persons, many of whom live in camps (see NSI Reachback question B3 response). These people have been uprooted, lost their livelihoods, and in many cases experienced severe trauma. These stresses place them at risk of radicalization as their frustrations and grievances increase with time. Research was conducted on counter-radicalization and deradicalization programs appropriate for use in refugee camps, returning a broad range of counter-radicalization measures, and screening and segregation protocols. Their validity, respective pros and cons, and implementation considerations are reported here. Determining the appropriate measures for protecting refugees, building community resilience, and triaging individuals who would most benefit from deradicalization programs can inform how USCENTCOM can take action, or support organizations that are engaged with deradicalization in refugee camps.

In advance of the Turkish incursion into Syria last October, warnings about the security risks of “the children of ISIS” and radicalized youths in internally displaced persons (IDP) and refugee camps in Syria and Iraq increased. Media outlets reported that women in Al Hol camp in northeast Syria were setting up their own “mini Islamic State” within the camp and terrorizing other residents in the already under-resourced camp (Sancha, 2019). The shredding of ISIS’s physical caliphate and the horrifying realization of the depths of derangement of ISIS’s treatment of Cubs and Pearls of the Caliphate—young children who serve as perpetrators, witnesses, and victims of the horrors—have raised inevitable questions about the appropriate security, moral, and legal “next steps” for these children.

Success in the global competition between the US, China, and Russia may be determined by a country’s ability to influence the world’s populations. A population’s aspirations and grievances can drive national security problems for all three powers when frustrated aspirations and grievances lead to state instability, terrorism, or other challenges such as unwanted or unmanaged migration. In accordance with the questions posed in the J39 Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) Great Power Competition tasking, this report summarizes context-specific qualitative and quantitative analyses of the conditions impacting population aspirations and grievances for 25 countries, and how these impact US, Chinese, and Russian interests. Issues include:

Success in the global competition between the US, China, and Russia may be determined by a country’s ability to influence the world’s populations. A population’s aspirations and grievances can drive national security problems for all three powers when frustrated aspirations and grievances lead to state instability, terrorism, or other challenges such as unwanted or unmanaged migration. In accordance with the questions posed in the J39 Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) Great Power Competition tasking, this study is intended to address the following issues through the use of country-level global statistical modeling, including identifying or anticipating:

Four datasets on wealth and status distribution in the United States were analyzed: 2016, 2010, and 2007 World Bank quintile and decile estimates of income, and 2017 US Bureau of Labor statistics income deciles.

Two datasets on wealth and status distribution in Nigeria were analyzed: 2017 World Bank quintile and decile estimates of income, and 2013 USAID Demographic Health Survey (DHS) wealth factor scores.

Five datasets on wealth and status distribution in Iran were analyzed: 2017 World Bank quintile and decile estimates of income, and Iranian government income data for years 2015 and 2006 for both urban and rural populations.

Two datasets on wealth and status distribution in Finland were analyzed: 2016 World Bank quintile and decile estimates of income, and International Labor Organization (ILO) income by occupation data for the years 2017 and 2011.

Five datasets on wealth and status distribution in Ethiopia were analyzed: 2016 World Bank quintile and decile estimates of income, International Labor Organization (ILO) income by occupation estimates for 2013, and USAID Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data from 2016 on wealth factor scores and agricultural land ownership and 2005 data on wealth factor scores.

No primary data were available for analysis. Instead, a literature review of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK, i.e., North Korea) inequality and stability is summarized.

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government.

This report provides an analysis of the compatibility of reconciliation and reintegration processes, an assessment of the potential for achieving successful reconciliation and reintegration in Afghanistan, and an examination of which US government capabilities can best be leveraged in support of these processes.

This study was conducted to address the question: How can the US increase the resolve and capability of Pakistan to support political reconciliation in Afghanistan and the region?

This publication was released as part of SMA’s Strategic Outcomes in the Korean Peninsula project. For more information regarding this project, please click here.

The collapse of the North Korean economy and disastrous famine of the mid-1990s forced the regime to adapt its centrally-planned economy—most notably by allowing limited and small-scale private entrepreneurship among a starving population that the government’s Public Distribution System could no longer support. In this context, the North Koreans had turned to informal markets for sustenance in order to survive (Gause, 2018; Park, 2018; Platte, 2018; Rinna, 2018). This “bottom up” marketization resulted in policy reforms that followed rather than led the transition (Haggard & Noland, 2005; Park, 2018; Platte, 2018; Rinna, 2018).

This report summarizes the input of thirty-three insightful responses from the Korea Strategic Outcomes Virtual Think Tank (ViTTa) expert contributors. While this summary response presents an overview of the key expert contributor insights, the summary alone cannot fully convey the fine detail of the contributor inputs provided, each of which is worth reading in its entirety. For this report, the expert contributors consider the possibility of a win-win scenario for the key actors involved with the DPRK. This summary details the various perspectives that emerge.

[Q8] How do key actors in the Asia Pacific (Australia, China, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, North Korea, Philippines, Russia, South Korea, and the United States) define their key national interests / regional objectives in Northeast Asia and the Western Pacific? What are seen by each actor to be the major threats to each interest? Are there any redlines associated with these interests?

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Larry Kuznar (NSI / Indiana University – Purdue University – Fort Wayne [IPFW]), Dr. Peter Suedfeld (University of British Columbia [UBC]), and Dr. Nick Wright (Intelligent Biology / Georgetown University) as a part of its SMA Korea Strategic Outcomes Speaker Series.

In recent years, strategic culture has regained attention as US policymakers work to integrate deterrence strategies with allies and partners while understanding the strategic cultures of adversaries, like China and Russia.

The creation of a computational model that encapsulates the increasingly complex and overwhelming world as multiple systems that can be measured empirically could have strong implications for civilian and military decision makers. NSI Inc. and SMA are currently working on such a model that is expanding on prior research conducted by TRADOC G-2. NSI has expanded on TRADOC’s original 24 exploitable conditions to create the Global Exploitable Conditions Model (GECM) as part of the Anticipating the Future Operational Environment (AFOE) project for the US Joint Staff. Dr. Kuznar stated that while GECM is supported by a large corpus of qualitative research, a computational model has been built to empirically test it through network and system dynamics. GECM contains 17 subsystems that are comprised of 124 nodes and 829 edges where nodes connect. This model is the starting point for all of NSI’s research during the AFOE project.

Dr. Dorondo and Dr. Jiang discussed how China’s and Russia’s relationships with key actors in the CENTCOM area of responsibility (AOR) will play out in the short term (2020-2025), the medium term (2025-2035), and the long term (2035-2045). Dr. Dorondo highlighted that, in the short term, one can anticipate a movement from an unstable status quo towards significant change, including a new great power rivalry involving China and Russia (on the same side) and the US. In the medium term, one can expect a “Colder War” political dynamic in the CENTCOM AOR, as well as a transition from a US-centric regional alignment to a Russia-centric regional alignment with Chinese engagement involved as well. In the long term, one can anticipate more authoritarian regimes than democratic states in the region, continued conflict amongst great powers, and a rebalanced regional power structure. Dr. Jiang then stated that China is the stronger of the two powers—Russia and China—even though it still has a relatively new presence in the CENTCOM AOR. Thus far, China has focused on regional security and the expansion of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in the area. Dr. Dorondo added that Russia and China will act in pursuit of their goal to weaken US dominance in the CENTCOM AOR and might collectively seek to create new alliances with regional actors. As a result, the US cannot afford to cease defending its interests and maintaining its long-established relationships with nations in the region. Moreover, he US has the ability to counter Russian and Chinese influence by strengthening its own relationships with nations within the CENTCOM AOR and by using Russia’s and China’s shortcomings to its advantage. To conclude, Dr. Dorondo stated that China’s and Russia’s alliance with key players in the CENTCOM AOR will present a geostrategic challenge to the US. Therefore, an effective overarching strategy must be developed to guide US-China and US-Russia relations moving forward.

SMA hosted a panel discussion as a part of its SMA CENTCOM Population Dynamics Speaker Series. The panelists included Dr. Skye Cooley (Oklahoma State University), Ms. Nicole (Peterson) Omundson (NSI, Inc.), Dr. Nicholas Wright (Intelligent Biology), Dr. Sabrina (Pagano) Polansky (NSI, Inc.), Dr. Karl Kaltenthaler (University of Akron), Mr. Ali Jafri (NSI, Inc.), Dr. Lawrence Kuznar (NSI, Inc.) and Mr. Howard Lee (US Army TRADOC).

During his presentation, Dr. Kuznar discussed his team’s findings regarding the drivers of grievance and unrest among the world’s populations, particularly as they relate to instability, terrorism, and migration. He first spoke about the primary inspiration for his team’s research: SMA’s “Age of Disruption” white paper. This white paper suggests that populations are key battlefields in global power competition, as great powers vie for the allegiance of populations, manipulate the grievances of these populations, and have objectives that can be frustrated by social unrest among these populations. He also stated that the Political Instability Task Force’s (PITF) work on social unrest events and predicting instability inspired his team’s work as well. Next, Dr. Kuznar conveyed that the purpose of NSI’s aggrieved populations project was to anticipate the operational environment from 2019 to 2029 by identifying emerging regional and non-state challenges. This effort was broken up into two phases: a global analysis phase and a country-specific analysis phase. He then presented a notional graph depicting the distribution of social status and wealth of a typical society and explained the concepts of risk aversion and risk acceptance. For the remainder of his brief, Dr. Kuznar discussed his team’s results, beginning with those from his team’s global study, which included the following: 1) Political instability is driven by hunger, risk acceptant elites, the interaction of fuel export and corruption, weak democracy, mountainous terrain, economic isolation, and ethnic division; and 2) migration from undeveloped countries is driven by hunger, a youth bulge, homicide, and political oppression. He concluded by discussing the results of their country-specific study, which included the following: 1) Countries with low inequality, such as Finland, are stable; 2) countries with unusually high levels of inequality, such as Honduras and South Africa, are characterized by extremely high levels of interpersonal violence; and 3) agrarian countries have extremely high levels of inequality and consequently experience unrest in rural areas, which in turn is exacerbated by rural/urban inequalities (Afghanistan, Pakistan, Honduras, Nigeria, and Ethiopia are good examples).

SMA hosted a panel discussion with Dr. Lawrence Kuznar (NSI, Inc.), Dr. Gina Ligon (University of Nebraska at Omaha), Mr. William Braniff (National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) at the University of Maryland), and Dr. Daveed Gartenstein-Ross (Valens Global) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM Population DynamicsSpeaker Series

To begin the presentation, Dr. Astorino-Courtois explained the methodology behind NSI’s Interest-Resolve-Capability (IRC) analysis, outlined the results and primary findings, and highlighted the regional dynamics that emerged during the analysis.

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Larry Kuznar (NSI, Inc. / Purdue University- Fort Wayne) as a part of its SMA Korea Strategic Outcomes Speaker Series. For his study, Dr. Kuznar and his team conducted a comparative analysis of the three Kim family leaders to determine whether Kim Jong-un differs from previous leaders in meaningful ways and whether things are likely to change based on his behavioral patterns.

NSI just released its inaugural podcast, which features a previous SMA speaker session presented by Dr. Larry Kuznar (NSI / Indiana University- Purdue University- Fort Wayne), Dr. Allison Astorino-Courtois (NSI), and Mr. Adam Jonas (TRADOC). During this podcast, the speakers discuss their analysis of Middle East conflict and interest networks using social network analysis techniques and measures. Notable findings include the defeat of Daesh on the regional system as the prelude to broader conflict through previously unlikely alliances, cutting across ethno-religious lines. This and other points are discussed in the context of policy implications for DOD and application to the CENTCOM Reach Back effort.