Statistical Modeling of Risk and Political Instability in the Influence Environment – An NSI Aggrieved Populations Analysis

Statistical Modeling of Risk and Political Instability in the Influence Environment – An NSI Aggrieved Populations Analysis

Authors | Editors: Kuznar, L. (NSI, Inc.); Kuznar, E. (NSI, Inc.); Aviles, W. (NSI, Inc.)

Executive Summary

Success in the global competition between the US, China, and Russia may be determined by a country’s ability to influence the world’s populations. A population’s aspirations and grievances can drive national security problems for all three powers when frustrated aspirations and grievances lead to state instability, terrorism, or other challenges such as unwanted or unmanaged migration. In accordance with the questions posed in the J39 Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) Great Power Competition tasking, this study is intended to address the following issues through the use of country-level global statistical modeling, including identifying or anticipating:

• Where aggrieved populations are likely to exist globally and how they may be operationalized against US interests.
• The effects of global climate change on state stability.
• The forms of instability that may challenge US interests (political instability, autocratic regimes, violent extremism, adversarial proxies).
• The causes and effects of mass migration.

Previous academic research was used as the starting point for this study, and it was challenged to approximate the data challenges of intelligence analysis as well as to re-test earlier findings and update models by considering new and potentially relevant variables. Three statistical models (political stability, terrorism, and migration) were developed under these conditions to address the J39 questions. The key findings were:

• Political instability is driven by hunger, risk acceptant elites, the interaction of fuel export and corruption, weak democracy, mountainous terrain, economic isolation, and ethnic division.
• Terrorism is fueled by large populations, ties to MENA oil producers, the interaction of fuel export and corruption, economic isolation, and a risk acceptant middle class.
• Migration from undeveloped countries is driven by hunger, a youth bulge, homicide and political oppression, and
• Migration to developed countries is driven by permissive immigration policies and the attraction of national wealth.

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