Black Swans and Gray Rhinos in the CENTCOM AOR: Vigilance Against the Unsuspected and Keeping Our Eyes on the Prize

March 2020 No Comments

“Black Swans and Gray Rhinos in the CENTCOM AOR: Vigilance Against the Unsuspected and Keeping Our Eyes on the Prize“

Speakers: Kuznar, L. (NSI, Inc.); Wilkenfeld, J. (University of Maryland); Cioffi-Revilla, C. (George Mason University); Pike, T. (National Intelligence University); Lawson, S. (University of Utah)

Date: 4 March 2020

Speaker Session Preview

SMA hosted a panel discussion as a part of its SMA CENTCOM Speaker Series. The panelists included Dr. Jonathan Wilkenfeld (University of Maryland), Dr. Claudio Cioffi-Revilla (George Mason University), LTC Tom Pike (National Intelligence University), and Dr. Sean Lawson (University of Utah). The moderator was Dr. Larry Kuznar (NSI, Inc.).

Dr. Kuznar began by defining black swans as “high-impact, unpredictable surprises induced by complex interactions” and gray rhinos as “high-impact, probable events that individuals should not have neglected but did.”

Next, Dr. Cioffi-Revilla stated that strategic excellence aimed at lasting success should be the goal that CENTCOM strategists and planners are trying to achieve, rather than coping or muddling along. He then focused on gray rhinos, highlighting that more effort needs to be taken to observe gray rhinos at the provincial, local, international, and global levels, as opposed to just the country level. He also recommended that the combatant commands (COCOMs) consider whether the current area of responsibility (AOR) distinctions need to be adjusted. Dr. Cioffi-Revilla spoke about black swans as well. He emphasized the importance of understanding features of complexity and the high dimensionality of situations. He also stated that understanding the relevant distribution of black swan events of interest is essential and that data analysis itself is insufficient; one must add mathematical modeling to the mix. To conclude, Dr. Cioffi-Revilla suggested that by collecting a small dataset of black swans, one could compare their characteristics and potentially model future events’ onset. The knowledge gleaned from such models could then be integrated into COCOMs’ strategy.

Dr. Lawson based his portion of the discussion on two of his research projects, which examine the way in which the US defense community applies theories of nonlinear science and complexity. He began with a reminder that butterflies are “the other winged creatures of chaos.” Much of human history is shaped by such events, and some may be passing without our immediate recognition of them. He stated that what we perceive as large, visible black swans may actually be ripple effects of other events caused by more mundane, less noticeable butterflies. Consequently, Dr. Lawson advised that US decision makers look for the butterflies in order to spot (and ideally prevent) black swans. He further suggested that rather than predicting black swans, the COCOMs could monitor the emergence of certain conditions that make it more likely for a black swan event to occur. He also cautioned that US decision makers be particularly wary of the effects of feedback and the possibility of self-fulfilling prophesies. To conclude, Dr. Lawson stated that the region’s ability to respond to some gray rhino events, such as climate change, is linked to good governance—something that CENTCOM should promote.

LTC Pike then suggested that CENTCOM direct its focus to the various groups that are competing for resources and their specific dynamics in order to influence them. This is where CENTCOM will find the gray rhinos and black swans emerging, rather than at the aggregate nation state level. LTC Pike also stated that US decision makers could influence the adaptive path of populations in order to (ideally) produce their own gray rhinos. To do this, decision makers should monitor these groups and identify ways in which they (the decision makers) can avoid being predictable. Simulations can also help identify high-level points of leverage and keep costs low. However, LTC Pike added that the success of these efforts is unpredictable, and simulations will never produce results that are exactly right. LTC Pike concluded by stating that CENTCOM should 1) gain a higher level of understanding about how populations in its AOR are interacting and behaving and 2) replace building blocks or adapt data streams if a component in a simulation is not working.

Lastly, Dr. Wilkenfeld stated that the US is facing gray rhino situations that could eventually turn into black swan situations. He proposed that human security is at the core of black swans’ potential to occur and how they can affect international patterns moving forward. He then presented five threats that groups face in the international system today: 1) unstable governance and underperforming economies, 2) ineffective conflict management (both at the local and international level), 3) uncoordinated global development strategy due to widespread corruption, 4) insufficient focus on how diversity can lead to tensions and conflict, and 5) inability to deal with the impact of human activity on climate in a timely manner. These threats also converge oftentimes in a way that individuals didn’t anticipate in the long-term. Dr. Wilkenfeld then stated that one can minimize the impact of black swans in the future by collecting and analyzing data and metrics on these events. He also stressed the need for collective action in order to address critical global issues and crises. “We all live downstream,” according to Dr. Wilkenfeld; “problems do not exist until we have been led to them, and as we tackle these problems, it is critical to understand where they came from.”