Four Scenarios for the Korean Peninsula’s Future

Four Scenarios for the Korean Peninsula’s Future

Speaker: Michishita, N. (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies [GRIPS])

Date: 20 June 2018

Speaker Session Preview

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Prof. Narushige Michishita (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies [GRIPS]) as a part of its SMA INDOPACOM Speaker Series. During this presentation, Prof. Michishita provided his assessment of the recent Singapore conference. He argued that what was concluded in the joint statement was “not enough;” however, President Trump’s and Kim Jong-un’s intentions have become more important in determining the future of the Korean Peninsula than what is stated in formal documents. So, it is difficult to say what will happen next based only on the summit. Prof. Michishita concluded by discussing four different scenarios for the future of the Korean Peninsula: 1) the “okay” scenario, 2) the “bad” scenario (i.e. a military crisis), 3) the “precarious peace” scenario, and 4) the “Gorbachev” scenario.

Speaker Session Audio File

Download Prof. Michishita’s biography and relevant paper