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Tagged: Methodology = Statistical Analysis

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SMA Publications (Tagged: Statistical Analysis)

SMA Publication

Socio-Political Stability in Syria and Iraq

This White Paper presents the analytic results from Strategic Multi-layer Assessment (SMA) project touching on the Middle East and North Africa. The objective is to suggest options to manage conflict in the region and to facilitate socio-political stability in Iraq and Syria. Options that are discussed are intentionally “out-of-the-box”, non-kinetic, and focused on potential Coalition efforts to:
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Conflict and Convergence in Eurasia (Integration)

Evaluating strategic risk in the Eurasia region over the next two to three decades is a complex challenge that is vital for USEUCOM planning and mission success. The depth of our understanding of the diverse set of political, economic, and social actors in the region will determine how effectively we respond to emerging opportunities and threats to US interests. A better understanding of Russia’s priorities and interests, and their implications, both regionally and globally, will help planners and policy makers both anticipate and respond to future developments.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Analytic Techniques for Nuclear Strategy Analysis

The Concepts & Analysis of Nuclear Strategy (CANS) project undertaken for US Strategic Command (USSTRATCOM) was tasked to examine the utility of alternative analytic techniques for assessing nuclear force attributes and sufficiency under a variety of changed conditions. The CANS software developed during this effort is designed to enhance the planning process by guiding the analyst through the process of selecting appropriate alternate analytic techniques.
Year Published:
2011
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SMA Publication

Attribute Tradeoff Model (ATOM) for Force Posturing

Given New Start, the Administration’s interest in “nuclear zero” and a budget-constrained environment, analysts are likely to receive greater numbers of requests for comparison of the capacity of various force postures and structures to achieve nuclear policy goals. At present, no theoretically grounded and systematic method exists for comparing how well specific (attribute- based) force postures support specific policy objectives. In the nuclear context, the central policy objectives identified by the Concepts and Analysis of Nuclear Strategy CANS project are strategic stability, counter proliferation, deterrence, assurance and defeat.
Year Published:
2011
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SMA Publication

Protecting Homeland from Int'l & Domestic Terrorism

It would be comforting to be able to find some constants, some footholds in our understanding of terrorism. It is, in fact, the element of mystery as to what drives people to collective violence that makes us uncomfortable -- that fills us with terror. Researchers, policy makers, those who must combat terrorism, and the public hope for some simple formula for radicalization, a program or set of programs that will prevent groups of people from deliberately targeting other people in order to meet their needs (political, economic, social, etc). There is no magic formula within this paper collection, but there are a variety of perspectives that, either in isolation or when integrated, provide new ways to think about terrorism and potentially to inform decisions that will abate this global phenomenon, not exacerbate it.
Year Published:
2010
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SMA Publication

Perspectives on Political and Social Regional Stability Impacted by Global Crises – A Social Science Context

Cooperative security, stability operations and irregular warfare missions require a better understanding of the complex operational environment, notably through rich contextual understanding of the factors affecting stability. Further assessment, policy, and planning need to consider factors associated with institutional performance (community organizations, government ministries, legal structures, etc.) based on how societies emerge, develop, and function, as well as attributes that provide resiliency and flexibility.
Year Published:
2010
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SMA Publication

Anticipating Rare Events of Terrorism and WMD

This white paper covers topics related to the field of anticipating/forecasting specific categories of “rare events” such as acts of terror, use of a weapon of mass destruction, or other high profile attacks. It is primarily meant for the operational community in DoD, DHS, and other USG agencies. It addresses three interrelated facets of the problem set:
Year Published:
2008
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SMA Publication

Hunting Gray Rhinos and Black Swans: Statistical and Machine Learning Models of Political Stability and Terrorism

Strategic surprise, the realization that one’s knowledge and assumptions are wrong and the adversary has an upper hand, is a national security nightmare (Amidon, 2005; Defense Science Board, 2015; Handel, 1984). Classic examples include Pearl Harbor, Sputnik, the Cuban Missile Crisis, and the September 11, 2001 terror attacks.
Year Published:
2020
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SMA Publication

Inequality, Risk Sensitivity, and Grievance in Context – An NSI Aggrieved Populations Analysis

Success in the global competition between the US, China, and Russia may be determined by a country’s ability to influence the world’s populations. A population’s aspirations and grievances can drive national security problems for all three powers when frustrated aspirations and grievances lead to state instability, terrorism, or other challenges such as unwanted or unmanaged migration. In accordance with the questions posed in the J39 Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) Great Power Competition tasking, this report summarizes context-specific qualitative and quantitative analyses of the conditions impacting population aspirations and grievances for 25 countries, and how these impact US, Chinese, and Russian interests. Issues include:
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

Statistical Modeling of Risk and Political Instability in the Influence Environment – An NSI Aggrieved Populations Analysis

Success in the global competition between the US, China, and Russia may be determined by a country’s ability to influence the world’s populations. A population’s aspirations and grievances can drive national security problems for all three powers when frustrated aspirations and grievances lead to state instability, terrorism, or other challenges such as unwanted or unmanaged migration. In accordance with the questions posed in the J39 Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) Great Power Competition tasking, this study is intended to address the following issues through the use of country-level global statistical modeling, including identifying or anticipating:
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

Influencing Violent Extremist Organizations and Their Supporters without Adverse Side Effects

In developing strategy to affect violent extremist organizations (VEOs) it is useful to take a “system perspective” to characterize the different elements of a VEO and the larger environment in which the VEO operates. It is also useful to think about an influence spectrum that includes efforts at one end to co-opt or induce and, at the other end, actions taken to punish now so as to deter later. Strategy, then, takes actions to promote different kinds of influences on different elements of the system with the intention of achieving desired effects, avoiding or mitigating unintended side effects, and being in a position to exploit unintended but favorable side effects.
Year Published:
2011
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SMA Speaker Series (Tagged: Statistical Analysis)

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NSI Publications (Tagged: Statistical Analysis)

NSI Publication

African-American Women Depression & Ethnic Identity

This study examines direct, interactive, and indirect effects of racial identity and depression in a sample of 379 African American women
Year Published:
2010
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NSI Publication

Moral Emotions - Predicting Political Attitudes

A web-based study of 393 undergraduates at a public university in the United States was conducted to examine the relationship between moral emotions (i.e., emotions that motivate prosocial tendencies) and support for political actions to assist Iraqi citizens after the Second Gulf War (2003–2004).
Year Published:
2007
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NSI Publication

Countering Terrorism with IT and Privacy Protection

Security and privacy aren’t dichotomous or conflicting concerns—the solution lies in developing and integrating advanced information technologies for counterterrorism along with privacy-protection technologies to safeguard civil liberties. Coordinated policies can help bind the two to their intended use.
Year Published:
2006
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NSI Publication

Information Technologies for Countering Terrorism

This book explores both counter-terrorism and enabling policy dimensions of emerging information technologies in national security.
Year Published:
2006
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