POC: For inquiries regarding this work, please contact Dr. Allison Astorino-Courtois (aastorino@nsiteam.com).  

Description: In support of Valens Global on behalf of the Irregular Warfare Center, the NSI team applied its IOTA framework to outline a range of Chinese irregular warfare related activities and how those activities relate to strategic objectives and interests to gain insight into its implied strategy.

The speed and ubiquity of communication from nations to individuals has diminished the distinctions between strategic, theater and tactical level concerns. Especially with respect to strategic competition, nearly every theater objective and tactical activity around the globe can have strategic implications. The IOTA Framework is designed to illuminate the strategic impact of an actor’s activities—which can take place on different time scales, in different locations, and in different domains (diplomatic, information, military, economic)—yet align with the actor’s objectives in support of its key national interests. Understanding the relationships between a competitor’s activities (including those that are intentionally clouded), its theater and strategic objectives, and its high-level national interests provides analysts and decision makers with the context necessary to make sense of observed changes in activity. As these actor activities often are “gray activities” below the level of armed conflict, they can appear to be non-threatening when viewed in isolation but may be part of a broader pattern of behaviors that, when combined, may constitute a threat to competitors. Awareness of the reasons why an activity has occurred is thus as essential for anticipating future actions as knowing what has occurred. This enables analysts to distinguish an actor’s tactics from the strategic goals that drive them and can help inform the formulation of strategy or plans.