This white paper was prepared as part of the Strategic Multilayer Assessment, entitled The Future of Global Competition and Conflict. Twenty-seven experts contributed to this white paper, providing wide-ranging assessments of China’s domestic and international activities in order to assess the future of China and the challenges that these activities may present to US interests. This white paper is divided into five sections and twenty-four chapters. While this summary presents some of the white paper’s high-level findings, the summary alone cannot fully convey the fine detail of the experts’ individual contributions, which are worth reading in their entirety.

Air University Press has published Strategic Multilayer Assessment’s (SMA) latest book, Human, Machine, War: How the Mind-Tech Nexus Will Win Future Wars.

In 2016, TRADOC G-2 launched a virtual/telework intern program for college students to work side-by-side (in a virtual environment) with Army leaders to gain practical, real-world experience within TRADOC. This effort is known as the E-Intern initiative. The virtual space allows students to remain at their universities while they complete their internship. The E-Intern Initiative provides meaningful work to college students, opportunities to contribute to hard problems and an opportunity to serve the Nation. The E-Intern Initiative demonstrates possible approaches to help the Army rethink its approach to maintaining a high quality, diverse, talented and professional workforce.

How can we defend the humans in the Joint Force—and its key support networks—from adversarial information operations in our digitizing world? Service personnel, their families and friends are human. Adversaries and other destabilizing forces threaten to sow disruption amongst these millions of humans, in order to degrade collective capabilities. “Deepfakes” illustrate how such threats’ character may evolve as part of “combined arms” information operations alongside other dual-use Artificial Intelligence (AI) tech. Success for the Joint Force is to react effectively, but within the democratic constraints of a free society.

Integrated Campaigning requires the development and execution of US foreign policy across the whole of the US Government (USG). Such coherent policy development and implementation necessitates a common perspective to analyze the situation that provides (1) an accurate description of operating environment and (2) supports synergistic action across the USG with minimal coordination.

The cluster of technologies associated with artificial intelligence (AI) research and development, and the implications of these technologies across the spectrum of human activity including national security, generates a blur of fast-moving technological, political, strategic, and ethical puzzles. For all their hyper-modern veneer, tracing the trajectories of historical thought associated with these puzzles offers some much-needed clarity. To this end, what follows is an overview of three relevant trajectories. While far from exhaustive, practitioners and theorists alike in national security should have a solid grounding in these thought trajectories to facilitate reasoned decisions about AI research and development.

This white paper was prepared as part of the Strategic Multilayer Assessment, entitled The Future of Global Competition and Conflict. Twenty-seven experts contributed to this white paper, providing wide-ranging assessments of China’s domestic and international activities in order to assess the future of China and the challenges that these activities may present to US interests. This white paper is divided into five sections and twenty-four chapters. While this summary presents some of the white paper’s high-level findings, the summary alone cannot fully convey the fine detail of the experts’ individual contributions, which are worth reading in their entirety.

The 12th Annual SMA Conference, entitled “The Evolving Anatomy of Conflict in a Dynamically Changing World,” was held 21-22 May 2019 at the General Jacob E. Smart Conference Center at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland. The conference theme was defined as:

Artificial Intelligence (AI) and big data promise to help reshape the global order. For decades, most political observers believed that liberal democracy offered the only plausible future pathways for big, industrially sophisticated countries to make their citizens rich. Now, by allowing governments to monitor, understand, and control their citizens far more effectively than ever before, AI offers a plausible way for big, economically advanced countries to make their citizens rich while maintaining control over them—the first since the end of the Cold War. That may help fuel and shape renewed international competition between types of political regimes that are all becoming more “digital.” Just as competition between liberal democratic, fascist, and communist social systems defined much of the twentieth century, how may the struggle between digital liberal democracy and digital authoritarianism define and shape the twenty-first?

Artificial intelligence (AI) is proliferating throughout society and has implications for many careers and jobs, including military intelligence. More specifically, AI tools have the potential to enhance the analysis conducted by analysts within the intelligence community (IC). Dr. Flores emphasized the need for the United States to compete with China and Russia for AI dominance, as the stakes and implications of allowing these countries to surpass the United States in AI development continue to rise. These stakes include threats to democratic institutions and the spread of authoritarianism.

During World War II, Germany combined emerging technological advancements with human elements of warfare—such as surprise and operational skill—to execute its Blitzkrieg strategy in the early stages of the conflict. Today, emerging technologies are enhancing the interface between warfighters and machines, threatening to fundamentally alter the nature and conduct of war. Even nascent technologies have the potential to reshape how people think about and conceptualize warfare.

SMA hosted a speaker session with Jim Mitre (RAND Global and Emerging Risks) as part of its SMA General Speaker Series.

SMA hosted a panel discussion as a part of its SMA UK MoD Speaker Series. The panelists included Dr. David Bray, Dr. Matthew Burrows, Dr. Divya Chander, and Dr. Jason Matheny (All from The Atlantic Council’s GeoTech Center, Strategic Foresight Initiative, and Center for Security and Emerging Technology).

National headlines about China’s economy have focused on its decelerating economic growth and gross domestic product (GDP).

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Juljan Krause (University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation), Dr. Kimberly Peh (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory), and Dr. Spenser Warren (Harvard Kennedy School of Government’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs) as part of its SMA General Speaker Series.

The field of biomedical research is rapidly expanding and evolving, providing numerous opportunities for technological advancements in synthetic biology, genome editing, and bioengineered devices.

One of the GDELT Project’s goals is to use artificial intelligence (AI) to better understand our world.

The advent of widespread internet access and the emergence of new forms of generative AI (GenAI) have broken down the physical boundaries that once separated international and intranational communities.

Seerist developed an artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled threat intelligence platform that utilizes information from open-source resources to identify, monitor, and track global threats.

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. James Johnson (University of Aberdeen) as part of its SMA “Strategic Deterrence Frameworks” (SDF) Speaker Series.

Artificial intelligence (AI) has many implications for how warfighters operate on the battlefield, their leaders make decisions, and the training of employees in private industry. The present whole of society (WoS) impact of AI and its full potential is being studied and analyzed in real time by experts and field operators.

The capabilities and implications of artificial intelligence are frequently discussed throughout all sectors of society. Among the many questions asked is, how can human users trust AI? Dr. Bray emphasized that the first step in understanding whether humans can trust AI, is to define trust. Individuals will readily give their trust to either a person or organization if they perceive benevolence, competence, and integrity. While well-programmed AI can imitate having these traits, it cannot possess them. It is better to think of AI as an alien interaction rather than a human interaction. This is because AI is a computationally-based program that works differently than a human brain, making it impossible for AI to possess these traits or express real emotions. It is not surprising that humans have tried to attribute real intelligence to AI, because of a tendency to anthropomorphize both objects and animals. To understand the current state of AI, it is important to understand its evolution during the last two decades. Dr. Bray identified four separate significant evolutionary stages during his presentation. The first of these stages was during the early 2000s when AI’s main purpose was to better understand human decision-making. The last evolutionary period was from 2017-2019 and focused on counter-disinformation. AI uses large language models (LLMs) to read and process data. Dr. Bray emphasized the need to use what he called AI-PRAMs (Probe, Reason, and Assess Models) to test the LLM’s findings against existing and real-time insights. He also stated that generative AI should never be used to make decisions regarding someone’s health or national security. A human decisionmaker should always be involved in those situations. He stated that the Turing test is usually used to assess the effectiveness of AI’s ability to trick the user into believing they are acting with an intelligent lifeform. Dr. Bray suggested that the Turing test may not be the best test for assessing the usefulness of AI. Instead, a test could be used that does not focus on deception, but rather the AI’s ability to help humans make decisions.

Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) are still a relatively new technology and an even newer commercial product; however, the growth of the UAV market has been immense. During the last 13 years, there have been 1.7 million UAVs registered in 100 countries. Of these, 75% are for consumer or commercial use, increasing their prevalence in modern civil society. However, commercial UAVs have the capability to be used by the state militaries and to carry out attacks by violent non-governmental organizations. Because of these capabilities, many states have concerns over the growing commonality of commercial UAVs. Some of these concerns come from past assassination attempts on state leaders using UAVs. Col (Ret) Edwards emphasized that the war in Ukraine has given combatants a wealth of new case studies for both the development and employment of UAVs in combat. Ukraine itself has become an epicenter for UAV development.

The development of artificial intelligence (AI) has drastically increased in speed and scope. The speed at which AI is being developed is increasing its implications for its use in militaries and economic competition between countries. AI will inevitably play a strong role in the US-China great power competition. Chinese president, Xi Jinping, even stated that technology and science is the main battlefield on which countries fight. Past industrialization has influenced past great power competitions. For example, Great Britain and Germany industrialized more quickly than Russia during the 18th century, surpassing Russia and becoming the two strongest European economies. Dr. Scharre commented that despite China’s rapid development of AI, the US still has a strong scientific lead on its main geopolitical rival and is in a strong position to retain its lead. The competition for AI dominance will likely be decided by four factors: a) data collection, b) hardware and chip development, c) talent retention, and d) institutional strength.

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Kalev Hannes Leetaru (The GDELT Project) as part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series.The GDELT Project provides researchers with many tools for analyzing public discourse through compiling large open-source databases and utilizing text-based analysis. This data is pulled from media sources across dozens of countries and in hundreds of languages. The GDELT Project is working to create the tools to accurately collect data from television news broadcasts and other forms of video, such as Tik Tok and Instagram. Current GDELT tools can identify images, objects, logos, and even some faces in video footage. However, these tools cannot identify the context in which these items are being shown or identify a subject’s emotions. This contextual information gives researchers a valuable insight into the sender’s intent.

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Tai Ming Cheung (Director, University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation; Professor, School of Global Policy and Strategy, UC San Diego) as part of its SMA INDOPACOM Speaker Series.China has been strengthening its techno-security state with the ultimate ambition of rivaling the US’ global geopolitical influence and military power by 2049 and fully modernizing its military force by 2035. Dr. Cheung defined the techno-security domain as “where national security, technological innovation, military power, and economic development converge.” He pointed out that this is where the US-China great power competition converges and that the US has already competed in a great power competition using its techno-security domain (i.e., in the 1980s against both Russia and Japan). Chinese president, Xi Jinping, was expected to continue his predecessors’ focus on economic development upon taking office; however, he has increasingly bridged the gap between China’s economic growth and facets of national security. President Xi has continued to conflate China’s national economic and security development during his third term in office, beginning to accelerate the modernization of certain parts of China’s armed forces.

Human-machine learning and technology that cognitively connects operators to technology has strong implications for the future of warfare. Dr. Wright stated that new technologies will not replace workers or warfighters; however, those without the skill sets required to operate the technology will be replaced by those who can. Much of this technology will incorporate artificial intelligence (AI). The capability of AI has grown significantly during the last decade. Twelve years ago, AI was able to successfully to discern dogs from cats, while today it can generate its own images of dogs, cats, and dog-cat hybrids. Artificial intelligence has also demonstrated the ability to answer complex problems in recent years. For example, a professor asked ChatGPT a scientific question and received a correct and highly sophisticated answer that received an A grade. Ultimately, the interface between AI and the user will be imperative to its success in the field. Dr. Wright reminded the audience that poor interface in fighter jets during WWII lead to the death of several pilots because they pressed the incorrect switch instead of the correct switch next to it while landing.

Deepfakes are becoming a more frequent feature in today’s modern information environment. Their increasing prevalence and quality are becoming a threat to society. Dr. Helmus commented that deepfakes are directly contributing to an ongoing modern phenomenon called truth decay. Even images and videos that have traditionally been strong forms of accreditation for information can now be called into question. Social consequences of deepfakes include election manipulation, lower trust in journalism, and an increasing vulnerability of the most likely victims. Likely victims of deepfakes include women who can be exploited by having their faces placed on an actress of an adult video. AI programs, such as DALL-E, can be used to create convincing images from simple text commands.

China and Taiwan’s political relationship is highly confrontational; however, China’s dependence on advanced semi-conductors produced in Taiwan acts as a defensive shield for Taiwan. Semi-conductors are one of the most complex technological tools ever created. Dr. Cronin emphasized that the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TMSL) is responsible for most of the current semiconductor industry. Taiwan provides 70% of China’s semi-conductor needs. China has the industrial infrastructure and the capability to mass-produce semi-conductor chips; however, they lack the means to produce the highly advanced chips used in advanced weapons systems. It is believed that most of China’s advanced missiles include Taiwanese semi-conductor chips that were produced under contract with the US. The US owns much of the intellectual property associated with the semiconductor chip industry.

Technology advancement has always affected how war is fought, including the psychology of warfighters. Many military and political leaders believe the next evolution of weaponry systems will include machines replacing human soldiers on the front line. While this includes artificial intelligence (AI), it also includes many more technologies, including unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Mr. Bendett commented that Russia has been experimenting with many different types of AI, unmanned machinery, and technologies that connect directly to soldiers’ neural pathways. Historically, Russia’s government has funded the majority of Russia’s military research and development. Recently, the war in Ukraine has diverted much of Russia’s government resources; however, its partnerships with commercial companies that specialize in quantum physics and advanced robotics are allowing it to continue to work on artificial intelligence.

SMA hosted a speaker session with Sir David Omand (Kings College London; Former Director, GCHQ; First UK Security and Intelligence Coordinator), Dr. Jonathan Moreno (University of Pennsylvania), and Dr. Jim Giordano (Georgetown University Medical Center) as part of its SMA Mind-Tech Nexus Speaker Series. The Panel was moderated by Dr. Nicholas Wright (Intelligent Biology, Georgetown University Medical Center, University College London, and Center for Strategic and International Studies).

Decision makers and military strategists expect artificial intelligence (AI) to change how war is fought. AI is a blanket term for several technologies and their capabilities. Many people believe AI’s defining feature is its level of autonomy; however, AI’s main function is actually as a decision-making tool.

The advancement of technology—including artificial intelligence (AI)—is unavoidable. New technology will inevitably change how military campaigns are conducted and how individual military units engage in combat.

Military leaders have long sought to understand what enables soldiers to willingly engage in combat and other dangerous activities. New technologies relating to the mind-tech nexus may allow scholars and leaders to understand why soldiers decide to place themselves in harm’s way, and even encourage it.

The use of autonomous weapons systems is frequently debated by countries’ leadership, military personnel, and scholars because of its potentially destructive capabilities.

SMA hosted a speaker session with Ms. Stephanie Segal(Non-resident Senior Associate, Economics Program, CSIS) and Mr. Matthew Reynolds (Research Associate, Economics Program, CSIS) as part of its SMA General Speaker Series.

SMA hosted a speaker session with Mr. Nicolas Chaillan (Chief Technology Officer, Prevent Breach & Former Air Force and Space Force Chief Software Officer) as part of its SMA NDU (INSS/PRISM) Speaker Series.

The potential for blending the character of war (the types of technologies used in war) and the nature of war (the human domain) is increasing as autonomous systems are used more frequently on the battlefield.

SMA hosted a speaker session with Mr. Samuel Bendett (Advisor, Russia Studies Program, CNA & Adjunct Senior Fellow, Center for a New American Security [CNAS]) as part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series.

SMA hosted a speaker session with CAPT George Galdorisi, USN (Ret) (Director of Strategic Assessments and Technical Futures, Naval Information Warfare Center Pacific (NIWC Pacific)) as a part of its SMA General Speaker Series. CAPT Samuel Tangredi, PhD, USN (Ret) (Leidos Chair of Future Warfare Studies & Professor of National, Naval, and Maritime Strategy, U.S. Naval War College) participated in the Q&A session, along with CAPT Galdorisi, after the conclusion of the brief.

SMA hosted speaker session presented by Mr. Samuel Bendett (CNA) as a part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series.Mr. Bendett began his presentation by recognizing that new threats require new approaches to technological, intellectual, and human potential. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MOD), particularly over the last decade, has made major strides in developing new research and development, testing, and evaluation (RDT&E) initiatives. According to Mr. Bendett, Russian MOD leadership helped ensure that the Russian army made a technological breakthrough related to the adoption of “robotic complexes” and intensified artificial intelligence research, for instance.

SMA hosted a panel discussion as a part of its SMA UK MoD Speaker Series. The panelists included Mr. Paul Nemitz (Principal Advisor, Directorate General for Justice and Consumers at the European Commission), Dr. Nicholas Wright (Georgetown University), Mr. Steven Feldstein (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace), and Dr. Jessica Chen Weiss (Cornell University).Dr. Wright first set the scene on how artificial intelligence (AI) has been reshaping critical systems globally. He explained that AI has contributed to the rise of digital authoritarianism in China. AI has also added to the digitization of liberal democracies in the US and Europe. Nations that have adopted these different models are competing for influence in the global system, in which there are critical swing states that may embrace one model over the other. In other words, there is global competition among states with competing visions regarding how we can digitize. COVID-19 has made all of this more pressing due to the rapid global movement towards digitization over the past 8 months. Dr. Wright then discussed the benefits of surveillance, highlighting that the use of surveillance technologies has been entirely necessary in order to enable the rich, industrialized world’s social and economic progress over the past two centuries. Furthermore, actors can determine possibilities for utilization of surveillance technologies based on their state’s environment. This leads to a central question: How does one establish democratically-accountable rules and norms that provide as much of the upsides of AI-supported surveillance as possible, without creating technological affordances that could facilitate authoritarian concentrations of power?

SMA hosted speaker session presented by Dr. P. W. Singer (New America) as a part of its SMA General Speaker Series. Dr. Singer first stated that the advancement of robotics and AI technology has been rapid over the past 10+ years.

The novel coronavirus pandemic is upending societies and their assumptions. Going forward, one of its most significant legacies will be the way that the pandemic dovetails with another major global disruption of the last few years—the rise and spread of digital surveillance enabled by artificial intelligence (AI).

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Michael Horowitz (University of Pennsylvania) as a part of its SMA STRATCOM Academic Alliance Speaker Series. Dr. Horowitz began by explaining how nuclear technologies are shaping global politics. He used the global telegraph program, the Cuban missile crisis, the Campaign to Stop Killer Robots, and the Chinese proliferation of drones as examples. He then focused on automation, autonomy, and artificial intelligence (AI). Dr. Horowitz defined AI as “the use of computers to simulate human behavior that requires intelligence.” AI is also broad, multi-purpose, dual use, and has a low barrier to entry. There are various methods of AI (e.g., symbolic vs. connectionist, machine learning, neural networks) and types of AI (e.g., narrow, general intelligence, superintelligence). Furthermore, AI is an enabler rather than a weapon. AI can direct physical objects, process data, and perform overall information management, but it is not a gun, nor is it a plane. The implication of this is that AI can be used for much broader purposes than military technologies. Next, Dr. Horowitz explained that individuals pursue autonomy and AI for their speed, precision, bandwidth/hacking capabilities, and decision making assistance. AI also has its downsides, however. Autonomous systems can be “brittle” (i.e., limited in terms of their potential areas of operation and requiring an immense amount of training). One must be weary of automation bias and trusting machines/algorithms too much to avoid making mistakes as well. Dr. Horowitz added that if a nation is already confident in its second-strike capabilities, over-trusting a machine is not necessarily worth the brittleness risks.

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. David Bray (Atlantic Council) as a part of its SMA General Speaker Series. Dr. Bray first explained that the democratization of the Internet does not necessarily lead to the democratization of societies. In fact, it may lead to the strengthening of autocracies instead. He highlighted a series of monumental events that have occurred in technology since 1977 and stated that the future remains unclear. He then provided the following questions for consideration: “Will we have navigated the current turbulence in modern societies? Will we have widened or reduced social disparities? Will technology empower only a few or all? Will humans have identified new ways of coexisting?” Dr. Bray explained that technology itself is amoral; it how humans choose to use the technology that renders it immoral or moral in its usage. He then compared the creation of the Internet to the creation of the printing press. When the printing press was released, the Catholic Church did not foresee that the machine would be used against it in the form of Martin Luther’s 95 theses. Similarly, the Internet has ultimately created significant problems for those that use it. Next, Dr. Bray discussed several challenges of the exponential era, including: 1) everyone can find information that supports their beliefs, and thus, facts often fail to sway perceptions; 2) repetition makes individuals more likely to believe something, and thus, countering misinformation often helps spread it; and 3) emotional headlines and content sell, but they also lead to polarized sides. Technology also super-empowers individuals to do things that only states or nation states could previously do. Consequently, individuals are capable of doing both monumentally good and monumentally bad things. Dr. Bray discussed a series of tensions in open societies as well. He posed the following questions: 1) “Will technology continue to erode social cohesion?”; 2) “Can we ‘act locally’ and use a combination of AI and other technologies to ‘think globally’ safely?”; 3) “Will cognitive cold wars misuse the Internet?”; 4) “Will globalization’s ‘low tide’ decimate rural areas?”; and 5) “Can tech balance national and ecological interests?” He then explained that technology also creates tensions in closed societies, as a connected world order challenges some regimes, creates taller “waller gardens,” and encourages some individuals to seek a new world order. To conclude, Dr. Bray provided three tools to help illuminate paths beyond the status quo and create a better future: 1) the power of diversity, 2) the power of the edge, and 3) the power of the abstract made visible.

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by CPT Joseph Littell (Duke University) as a part of its SMA General Speaker Series. CPT Littell’s brief focused on deepfakes, visual and audio manipulation, forgery, and data poisoning. To begin, he stated that machine learning (ML) is a process that works through the probability of a new event happening. ML technologies can be supervised, requiring human input into the raw data collected, or unsupervised, requiring no input into the data. CPT Littell explained that deepfakes—falsified images, audio, or video that are created using artificial neural networks—are examples of systems that utilize supervised ML. He discussed several programs that utilize deepfakes for visual manipulation, including Faceswap (a program that utilizes auto-encoders to remove the face of an individual in a video and replace it with another in the same position and expression), StyleGan (a program used to create highly accurate portraits of humans in natural positions based off of baseline images), YouTube videos, and social media filters. CPT Littell explained that, to his knowledge, visual deepfakes are not being used heavily outside of the open source realm. Moreover, despite the consistent increase in sophistication and accuracy of visual deepfakes, he does not believe that they will ever be used to successfully fool a nation like the US to the extent of causing a national or international crisis. Next, CPT Littell discussed programs that utilize deepfakes for audio manipulation, including Adobe Voco (a program that requires only 20 minutes of conversation before it can produce an individual’s voice using text inputs) and WaveNext (a similar program created by DeepMind). He then highlighted that, although much focus of late with regards to deepfakes is on images, video, and audio, creating highly accurate and realistic administrative documents is also a realistic threat. He explained that while the US has numerous safeguards to prevent forgeries, many countries in which US personnel have operated in do not have the same level of sophistication. Moreover, data poisoning can present potential security concerns, as false data can be fed into a ML model for nefarious purposes. To conclude, CPT Littell stressed the need for methodology and best practices regarding ML technologies to be shared across the defense enterprise (i.e., across the DOD, international community, and private national laboratories).

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Daniel Gerstein as a part of its SMA DHS CAOE Speaker Series. This is the inaugural speaker session of SMA’s new series, co-hosted by the US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Science and Technology Directorate’s (S&T) Office of University Programs (OUP) and the Center for Accelerating Operational Efficiency (CAOE) at Arizona State University. The series is titled “The Age of Disruption—Great Power Competition Implications for Homeland Security.” During his presentation, Dr. Gerstein addressed the following questions: 1) What is technology, and where does it come from?; 2) Can technology be managed?; 3) What is the appropriate balance of discovery and prudence?; 4) What does the history of technology tell us about the future?; and 5) How can we shape a future that is hospitable—or at least not threatening—to humanity? He explained that the history of humankind and technology are inextricably intertwined; humans even measure their progress by the technologies used throughout history. Moreover, technologies are collections of other technologies or systems, and each generation makes improvements to the technologies made by the previous one. This convergence of technologies has led humankind to possess a greater technological capacity and reach than ever before. Furthermore, he stated that technology is inherently dual-use, increasingly disruptive, and highly democratized. Next, Dr. Gerstein discussed six major trends that he observed during his research: 1) the continuing shifts in technology development; 2) the increasing challenge of managing technology development and controlling technology; 3) the emergence of a tech war; 4) the growing competition between humans and computers; 5) the changing expectations for society regarding privacy, liberty, and freedom; and 6) the increasing risk technology poses to humanity. To conclude, Dr. Gerstein spoke about several areas for potential conflict in an increasingly technology-enabled world, including 5G, social media, deep fakes, immigration, the “Big Data Catch-22” (people need to consolidate vast amounts of data, but doing so creates vulnerabilities), the cyber realm, export control, and artificial intelligence.

SMA hosted speaker session presented by LTC Thomas Pike (National Intelligence University) as a part of its Future of Global Competition & Conflict Speaker Series. During part two of his two-part brief, LTC Pike focused on a primary argument made in his dissertation: Computation is a critical tool necessary to analyze complex systems, and its use must be expanded across the Joint Force. He stated that artificial intelligence (AI) is a discipline that consists of a suite of different computational approaches. There is no universal algorithm, and every situation is different. Furthermore, each approach and sub-approach has its strengths and weaknesses. LTC Pike then explained that what allows AI to flourish is the ecosystem of computational tools and code that surround it. Each tool or code can be used for different purposes, and code stores knowledge that others can employ in a wide variety of situations. Moreover, in order to strengthen AI, the ecosystem of tools and code must become vast, which can be done by individual users providing open source data and building up public libraries. LTC Pike then provided a critical overview of how the open source/AI community works and how it allows individuals with even basic skills to perform advanced computational and AI-related tasks. He stated that open source code is often incredibly easy to use, and simply with a knowledge of what certain algorithms can do, any practitioner can utilize it. LTC Pike then spoke about how the Joint Force cannot just integrate current AI tools into the Joint Intelligence Process (JIP) and the Joint Planning Process (JPP) but set the conditions to lead the way for leveraging emerging tools and encoding the workforce’s current knowledge. To conclude, LTC Pike provided a series of recommendations. He advocated for the increased use of computation and explained that the Joint Force can improve the Joint Intelligence Preparation of the Operational Environment (JIPOE) process in two ways: 1) by managing the analysis of relevant actor interdependencies to better understand links between behavioral trends and outcomes and 2) by expanding the use of AI and its collection of computational tools in order to do so more rapidly.

Dr. Sutherlin began by stating the purpose of the panel discussion: to “look at the next decade of opportunity in advanced/emerging technology development to improve risk analysis for health, food security, governance, migration, and humanitarian crises in African countries.” Mr. Arias proceeded to discuss the science and technologies upon which AFRICOM has invested in order to help the UN conduct operations in Africa and to improve AFRICOM’s understanding of the operating environment.

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Brian Souhan (Director for Technology Wargaming for the Deputy Assistant of the Army (Research and Technology)), as a part of its SMA General Speaker Series. During his brief, Dr. Souhan presented the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Army for Research and Technology’s (DASA R&T) 2017 and 2018 annual reports on emerging trends in science and technology (S&T). Dr. Souhan first provided a brief history of these trend reports, highlighting their origin in 2013 in order to provide a strategic picture for senior leadership, the inception of one-page trend cards for each emerging S&T trend in 2014, the implementation of a survey to help determine US position in trends in 2017, and the movement towards more quantitative data in order to better assess the US’s position in the identified emerging trends in 2018. Dr. Souhan then explained that every year, governments, industry leaders, think tanks, nonprofits, and other organizations publish dozens of analyses of S&T trends through rigorously-developed, open source reports. The goal of DASA R&T’s reports is to “synthesize the collective insights of the professional foresight community to identify trends that are highly likely impact the US Army over the coming decades.” Dr. Souhan discussed the top trends identified in the 2017 and 2018 reports and highlighted the minor variations across the years. He also spoke about the top contextual trends from both years, as well as the major takeaways from the 2018 report: 1) the US Army is likely to find itself operating in and around dense urban environments, 2) future conflicts are likely to arise over limited natural resources, 3) the US is highly unlikely to maintain its dominance in global innovation, and 4) cybersecurity will become an increasingly strong driver of R&D. Dr. Souhan discussed the further analysis that was conducted in 2018 to assess where the US stands technologically when compared to the rest of the world. He highlighted that China is a significant competitor in robotics and AI automation, and South Korea is in the lead with respect to biomedical science and human augmentation. To conclude, Dr. Souhan spoke about the 2019 report and DASA R&D’s future plans.

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Ms. Amy Webb (Future Today Institute) as a part of its SMA General Speaker Series. Ms. Webb first stated that the US’s free market economy rewards short-term solutions with long-term risk, which can sometimes be problematic. She then spoke about her model, which uses data to listen for weak signals at the fringe, to see patterns, to identify trends, to calculate the ETA of a particular trend, to write scenarios, and to backcast preferred outcomes. Ms. Webb also stressed that there is no way to predict the future when there are so many variables at hand, nor is there a way to determine what geopolitical risks there truly are or what the impact of a technology may be.

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Mr. Gregory Allen (Center for a New American Security (CNAS)) as a part of its Future of Global Competition & Conflict Speaker Series.

SMA hosted a panel discussion as a part of its Future of Great Power Competition & Conflict Speaker Series. Presenters included Dr. Jaclyn Kerr (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL)), Dr. Samantha Hoffman (Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS)), Dr. James Lewis (Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)), Dr. Martin Libicki (US Naval Academy (USNA)), Dr. Herbert Lin (Stanford University), Ms. Elsa Kania (Center for a New American Security (CNAS)), and Dr. Lora Saalman (EastWest Institute). The moderator of this panel discussion was Dr. Nicholas Wright (Intelligent Biology).

SMA hosted a panel discussion as a part of its SMA Future of Great Power Competition & Conflict Speaker Series. Presenters included Ms. Shazeda Ahmed (University of California, Berkeley), Mr. Samuel Bendett (CNA), Dr. Rogier Creemers (Leiden University), Ms. Rachel Esplin Odell (Massachusetts Institute of Technology), Mr. Robert Morgus (New America), and Mr. Valentin Weber (Oxford University). The moderator of this panel discussion was Dr. Nicholas Wright (Intelligent Biology).

High-capability technologies are becoming increasingly accessible to individuals for a low price and with a low skill requirement, a small footprint, and a high level of signature reduction. Lt Col Snow provided a few examples of such technologies, while focusing on a series of do-it-yourself (DIY) tools, and spoke about hacking as a service at both the national and regional level.

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Lydia Kostopoulos (LK Cyber) as a part of its SMA DHS Speaker Series. To begin, Dr. Kostopoulos spoke about humans’ overconfidence in the validity of technology. She stated that the data that we provide artificial intelligence (AI) devices reflects our personal biases.