Degrees of Separation: Targeted Decoupling and the US-China Relationship
Speaker(s): Segal, S. (CSIS); Reynolds, M. (CSIS)
Date: 30 March 2022
Speaker Session Summary
SMA hosted a speaker session with Ms. Stephanie Segal(Non-resident Senior Associate, Economics Program, CSIS) and Mr. Matthew Reynolds (Research Associate, Economics Program, CSIS) as part of its SMA General Speaker Series.
As the US and China continue to compete for long-term strategic supremacy, it is important to remember that they are not competing in a closed system. Instead, their actions influence and are influenced by other actors. Ms. Segal commented that the US-China competition is ultimately a competition between democracy and authoritarianism. Increasing economic engagement between the US and China can decrease overall tensions. However, China is seeking to replace the US as the preeminent power in both the Asia Pacific and globally. Ms. Segal also acknowledged that the ongoing conflict in Ukraine adds a new level of analysis that may alter some of the group’s original findings relating to actors’ (namely, Russia’s, and potentially, China’s) risk tacking decisions.
Furthermore, actors’ rationale for risk taking is not uniform. This is also true among decision leaders within an organization or country. Because of this, it is important to establish a baseline understanding of risk taking among decision leaders. China has also expanded its lead as the world’s largest producer of goods, and China’s economy now has an even larger purchasing power than the US’s. However, there are steps that the US and its allies can take to confront China’s growing influence globally, including export controls and data and privacy protection. The US and its allies will need to work together to create a more cohesive front, especially on sharing and protecting data. The recent success of sanctions targeting Russia also increases the potential for similar sanctions to be used against China if it attacks Taiwan.
Stephanie Segal and Matthew Reynolds Biographies
Ms. Stephanie Segal is a non-resident senior associate of the CSIS Economics Program, where her research interests include economic competitiveness, US-China economic relations, and the role of international financial institutions in the global economy. Until 2017, Ms. Segal served as codirector of the East Asia Office at the U.S. Department of the Treasury. Prior to Treasury, she was senior economist at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), where she covered a range of emerging market and advanced country economies. Earlier in her career, Ms. Segal served as an economist in the Western Hemisphere, South and Southeast Asia, and International Monetary Policy offices at Treasury; as an adviser to the US director at the IMF; and as an analyst and associate in mergers & acquisitions at J.P. Morgan in New York. She earned her master's degree from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and her undergraduate degree from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
Mr. Matthew Reynolds is a research associate with the Economics Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Previously, he served in a variety of staff positions on Capitol Hill, including as a legislative assistant for a senior member of the House Ways and Means Committee. Matt earned his MA with honors in China studies and international economics from the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) and his BA in international relations from Creighton University.
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