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SMA Publications (Tagged: Gray Zone)

SMA Publication

Discourse Indicators of Gray Zone: Crimea

The increasing use of emotive themes and rhetorical devices (that amplify a message’s emotional effect) provide indicators of gray zone activities in speeches made by Eurasian regional leaders prior to and during the annexation of Crimea. Putin’s leading indicators, those of Crimean leaders and the Russian-supported President of Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych, are presented separately.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Demystifying the Gray Zone: Colombia, 2002-Present

This case study elucidates the dynamics of Gray Zone conflict with particular emphasis on the role of non- state actors. It does so through a detailed examination of the most recent phase (2002-present) of Colombia’s internal conflict (1964-present). More specifically, this research analyzes conflict dyads occurring between different types of conflict actors. It further examines which types of dyads leverage which instruments of power and to what extent activities are Gray versus Black or White across each type of dyad and instrument of power. Consequently, this research will help practitioners determine which instruments of power warrant careful consideration in Gray Zone conflicts depending on the types of actors engaged in conflict. This investigation will also aid Special Operations Forces in determining which types of belligerents may make effective partners and which instruments of power they should train and equip these partners to implement.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

The Strategic Uses of Ambiguity in Cyberspace

Martin Libicki (Ph.D., U.C. Berkeley 1978) holds the Richard Keyser Distinguished Professor of Cyber Studies at the U.S. Naval Academy. He wrote three commercially published books, Cyberspace in War and Peace (USNI Press, forthcoming autumn 2016), Conquest in Cyberspace: National Security and Information Warfare (2007), and Information Technology Standards: Quest for the Common Byte (1994). As senior management scientist at RAND (1998-2016) he wrote numerous monographs, notably Defender’s Dilemma, Brandishing Cyberattack Capabilities, Crisis and Escalation in Cyberspace, Global Demographic Change and its Implications for Military Power, Cyberdeterrence and Cyberwar, How Insurgencies End (with Ben Connable), and How Terrorist Groups End (with Seth Jones). Earlier employment includes adjunct professorships at Columbia University and Georgetown University, 12 years at the National Defense University, three years on the Navy Staff as program sponsor for industrial preparedness, and three years for the GAO.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Identifying Predictive Gray Zone Indicators

Christine MacNulty has forty years experience as a consultant in long-term strategic -planning for concepts as well as organizations, futures studies, foresight, and technology forecasting, technology assessment and related areas, as well as socio-cultural change. For the last twenty years, most of her consultancy has been conducted for the Department of Defense, including: The Joint Staff, OSD (OFT), the DON (Under Secretary, Secretariat, OPNAV N3/N5, N6, N7, CNET, NAVSEA, NAVSPECWARCOM, ONR, CNO’s SSG), the USMC (HQMC – Commandant), the USCG (HQ – Commandant), the USA (SMDC), JTAMDO, (then) BMDO, USSOCOM, (then) USACOM, JFCOM J9, and other COCOMs. She has also conducted projects for NATO ACT and NATO NEC, the British Army’s Force Development & Training Command, and the German BBK.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Strategic Communication and the Gray Zone

Arizona State University’s Center for Strategic Communication conducts research on strategic communication challenges in the public sector, and has a long history of contribution to USG and DOD efforts in understanding narratives (especially extremist narratives), countering violent extremist ideology, and uniting humanities and social science analytic methods with computational capabilities to enhance speed and scale of analysis. This presentation discusses the “holy trinity” of strategic communication in gray zone conflicts—narrative, framing and ideology. Narrative creates scenarios that explain how events did unfold or should unfold. Framing guides interpretations to align facts with narratives. Narrative and framing accomplish ideological functions of naturalizing, obscuring, universalizing, and structuring. In addition to explaining these concepts we discuss the need for a model that predicts whether related messages are likely to gain traction with target audiences.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Countering Adversaries Without Going to War

The Honorable David C. Gompert is currently Distinguished Visiting Professor at the United States Naval Academy, Senior Fellow of the RAND Corporation, and member of several boards of directors. Mr. Gompert was Principal Deputy Director of National Intelligence from 2009 to 2010. During 2010, he served as Acting Director of National Intelligence, in which capacity he provided strategic oversight of the U.S. Intelligence Community and acted as the President’s chief intelligence advisor. Prior to service as Principal Deputy Director of National Intelligence, Mr. Gompert was a Senior Fellow at the RAND Corporation, from 2004 to 2009. Before that he was Distinguished Research Professor at the Center for Technology and National Security Policy, National Defense University. From 2003 to 2004, Mr. Gompert served as the Senior Advisor for National Security and Defense, Coalition Provisional Authority, Iraq. He has been on the faculty of the RAND Pardee Graduate School, the United States Naval Academy, the National Defense University, and Virginia Commonwealth University.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Managing the Gray Zone is a Gray Matter Challenge

From 03/28 to 06/03/2016, 15 students participated in a nine-week Command and General Staff College Red Teaming elective. In the final exercise the class spent seven days studying gray zone concepts and questions using red teaming methodologies to analyze the concept and offer their insights and recommendations. This paper is the result of their work. The authors promote an alternative approach, which is to adapt officer career and education tracks to create a more operationally and intellectually excellent officer corps. The gray zone is a competition of ideas, and the authors assert that managing the gray zone requires intelligent management of our intellectual capital. The central idea of their alternative approach is to take an internal look to ensure that the Army officer corps maintains a robust educational and institutional base focused on creating a force that can recognize, adapt, and successfully counter the kinds of challenges that gray zone activities present.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Cognitive Maneuver in the Operating Environment

COL(Ret) Robert A. Warburg retired on 10/01/2014 after 30 years of service. He is currently the Director, G-9, (Concepts, Experimentation, Science and Technology and Capability Integration and Analysis Directorate’s) at the U.S. Army Special Operations Command (USASOC), Fort Bragg, North Carolina. The G-9 Directorate manages the future direction of the command through the Silent Quest Wargame Platform, the USASOC Campaign of Learning Program and the USASOC Futures Forum.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

The Economics of China's Competitive Strategy

Brig Gen (Sel) Rob Spalding is the Chief, China, Mongolia, Taiwan Division, Deputy Directorate for Politico-Military Affairs – Asia, Strategic Plans and Policy Directorate, Joint Staff, the Pentagon, Washington, D.C. As Division Chief, he directs activities and operations to develop planning guidance for Unified Commanders, prepares Joint Staff/DoD positions on National Security Council matters, and develops informal and formal briefings dealing with major national and international policy matters for use by the Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Chinese Strategic Intentions: A Deep Dive into China’s Worldwide Activities

This white paper was prepared as part of the Strategic Multilayer Assessment, entitled The Future of Global Competition and Conflict. Twenty-seven experts contributed to this white paper, providing wide-ranging assessments of China’s domestic and international activities in order to assess the future of China and the challenges that these activities may present to US interests. This white paper is divided into five sections and twenty-four chapters. While this summary presents some of the white paper’s high-level findings, the summary alone cannot fully convey the fine detail of the experts’ individual contributions, which are worth reading in their entirety.
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

From Control to Influence: Cognition in the Grey Zone

Understanding and influencing adversary decision-making in Grey Zones requires anticipating key audiences’ perceptions and decision-making. We apply the neuroscience and psychology of human decision-making to help U.S. policymakers produce intended and avoid unintended effects in the Grey Zone.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Executive Summaries of Gray Zone Conflicts Team Reports

Author | Editor: Bragg, B. (NSI, Inc.).
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Gray Zone Conflicts, Challenges, and Opportunities

United States Special Operations Command (USSOCOM) requested a Strategic Multilayer Assessment effort “to determine how the USG can identify, diagnose, and assess indirect strategies, and develop response options against associated types of gray zone conflicts.” This integration report provides a synthesis of all the team projects. Their work has advanced understanding of the contours of the gray zone terrain, and the challenges inherent in navigating that terrain. By identifying the critical features of the gray zone, their findings also provide a guide to where USSOCOM and other DOD entities should focus future efforts in this area to facilitate the development of operational level planning and response strategies. The key results of the effort fall into four areas as summarized below.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Gray Zone Challenge: Intent And Military Response

Mapping political, security, societal and economic trends to the decision calculus of key regional and (as applicable) non-state actors has been used to gain insights into the behaviors of actors conducting multi- instrument operations in the “gray zone” between peace and conflict. Timed Influence Net (TIN) models have been used to identify potential sources of strategic risk, and serve as the foundation for a planning framework designed for use by operational planning teams to support operational and engagement planning by Combatant Commands and their components. Computational experiments were performed using the TIN models. The computational experiments focused on gray zone actor perceptions of the decision calculus to counter the effects of gray zone activities.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Russian And Chinese Media Visions Of The Gray Zone

The purpose of this effort was to contribute to the Strategic Multilayer Analysis by examining media messaging strategies in Russian and Chinese language media, in order to uncover the role of media narratives in the development of potential conflict scenarios, narrative trajectories that might minimize or maximize the potential for conflict, and the role of high impact episodes in evolving media discourse. The study was built upon two prior year-long studies of geopolitical narratives in Chinese and Russian media conducted by the research team, and we used the conclusions of those previous studies to provide a starting point for this project. This project has sought to gain an in-depth look at Chinese and Russian media strategies in the context of gray zone conflict and the role of those narratives and techniques in signaling geopolitical intent. These findings are then used to generate potential strategies for minimizing conflict narratives and strengthening cooperative narratives in areas where there is geopolitical strain.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

US Discoverable Government Information Assets Directory

The United States Government possesses a vast store of information assets that can be leveraged to inform a variety of problem sets, and can be used by a wide range of governmental actors in the formation and execution of whole-of-government strategies. To enable this goal, however, these assets first must be made accessible in a single source that catalogues the information that is held.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Int'l Norms Transgressions Magnify Gray Zone Challenges

The current international system presents multiple potential challenges to US interests. In recent years, state actors, especially but not limited to Russia and China, have taken actions that disrupt regional stability and potentially threaten US interests (Bragg, 2016). Many of these challenges are neither “traditional” military actions nor “normal” competition, but rather fall into a class of actions we have come to call “gray” (Votel, 2015). Here we define the concept as: “the purposeful use of single or multiple instruments of power to achieve security objectives by way of activities that are typically ambiguous or cloud attribution, and exceed the threshold of ordinary competition, yet intentionally fall below the level of [proportional response and] large-scale direct military conflict, and threaten the interests of other actors by challenging, undermining, or violating international customs, norms, or laws.” (Popp and Canna, 2016).
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Gray Zone Deterrence: What It Is and How (Not) to Do It

In recent years, state actors, especially but not limited to Russia and China, have increasingly engaged in what the US Government has labeled “gray zone challenges.”1 These are actions that disrupt regional stability and potentially threaten US interests, yet purposefully avoid triggering direct responses (Bragg, 2016). In earlier NSI Gray Zone Concept Papers, we argued that both malicious intent as well as violation of international norms for what is considered “ordinary competition” among states were integral aspects of gray zone challenges. This paper expands this discussion to explore what deterrence would look like in the Gray Zone, and how deterrence operates when ambiguity regarding appropriate response is added to the uncertainties that more typically characterize deterrence decisions. We argue that deterrence in the Gray Zone involves both preventing escalation to direct military conflict and assuaging an actor’s desire to violate international norms of behavior.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

US-DiGIA: USG Discoverable Information Terrain

The United States currently faces a complex and dynamic security environment. States are no longer the only critical actors in the international arena; rather, a diverse range of non-state entities also has the potential to affect US interests and security—for good or bad. Economic influence, information control and propaganda, political influence, and social discontent can be and are being utilized by state and non-state actors alike to achieve their goals, in many cases bypassing the need for direct military action. In response, the US military is challenged to accomplish more, across a greater variety of domains, while facing a constrained budget environment. There are two central implications of this: first, many of the most intractable security problems the US faces require a whole of government approach. Second, in a complex and evolving international environment characterized by new and often ambiguous threats, information itself is a critical asset.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Saudi-Iranian Gray Zone Competition in MENA

The United States is regularly challenged by the actions of states and non-state actors in the nebulous, confusing, and ambiguous environment known as the Gray Zone. Planners, decision makers, and operators within the national security enterprise need to understand what tools are available for their use in the Gray Zone and how to best develop, employ, and coordinate those tools. This report summarizes the results of simulations created and executed by the ICONS Project as part of a larger study to capture at least some of the information needed toward that end.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

10th Annual SMA Conference - From Control to Influence

The Strategic Multi-Layer Assessment (SMA) office hosted the 10th Annual SMA Conference on 25-26 April 2017 at Joint Base Andrews. This year’s conference, formally titled “From Control to Influence? A View of—and Vision for—the Future,” brought together a multidisciplinary group of participants to consider how the US and its allies can more effectively counter the influence that recently re-emerging, capable states (such as China and Russia) and non-state actors (such as ISIS) exert on their neighbors and/or third parties through multiple elements of power.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Geopolitical Visions In Chinese Media

This study analyzed Chinese web media in an effort to uncover key frames and cultural scripts that are likely to shape potential geopolitical relationships in Asia. The team provided an overview of Chinese media and developed individual reports on cultural scripts in media coverage of three key issues: a) China’s relationships with its regional neighbors, b) the geopolitical dimensions of the “China Dream” (中国梦), and c) Chinese discourse around the “New Style Great Power Relations” (新型大国关系). Data was collected from May to October 2014. Over 2,200 media articles were analyzed from 25 different Chinese media sources controlled for ownership, political slant, official versus, and popular media outlets.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Panel Discussion on the Gray Zone

At the request of the Commander, United States Special Operations Command (USSOCOM), the Strategic Multi-Layer Assessment (SMA) team initiated an effort, titled Gray Zone Conflicts-Challenges and Opportunities-A Multi-Agency Deep Dive Assessment, focused on assessing gray zone conflict. The overall objective of this SMA gray zone effort is to determine how the United States Government (USG) can identify, diagnose, and assess indirect strategies, as well as develop response options against, associated types of gray zone conflicts.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Discourse Indicators of Gray Zone: South China Sea

The increasing use of emotive themes and rhetorical devices (that amplify a message’s emotional effect) provide indicators of gray zone activities in speeches made by Chinese, Philippine, and Vietnamese government officials during peak times of conflict in the South China Sea from 2002 to 2016. The leading indicators and warnings for the Chinese, Philippine, and Vietnamese governments are presented separately, as well as findings regarding how their use of language reflects predominant national concerns.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Discourse Indicators of Gray Zone: Estonia

The increasing use of emotive themes and rhetorical devices (that amplify a message’s emotional effect) provide indicators of gray zone activities in speeches made by Eurasian regional leaders and has the potential to provide leading indicators and reveal key issues and concerns.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Comprehensive Deterrence White Paper

The emerging concept of Comprehensive Deterrence is an initial effort to broaden strategic options for our National leaders to meet current and emerging security challenges. Comprehensive Deterrence internalizes the challenge from then Secretary of Defense Hagel’s Defense Innovation Memorandum (15 November 2014) to pursue innovative ways to sustain and advance U.S military superiority for the 21st Century. Comprehensive Deterrence also acknowledges the guidance from General Martin Dempsey, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, on 11 January 2015 when he noted that, “We’re going to have to think our way through the future, not bludgeon our way through it.”
Year Published:
2015
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SMA Publication

Operating in the Human Domain 1.0

Building on the vision of USSOCOM strategic guidance documents, the Operating in the Human Domain (OHD) Concept describes the mindset and approaches that are necessary to achieve strategic ends and create enduring effects in the current and future environment. The Human Domain consists of the people (individuals, groups, and populations) in the environment, including their perceptions, decision-making, and behavior. Success in the Human Domain depends on an understanding of, and competency in, the social, cultural, physical, informational, and psychological elements that influence human behavior.2 Operations in the Human Domain strengthen the resolve, commitment, and capability of partners; earn the support of neutral actors in the environment; and take away backing and assistance from adversaries. If successful in these efforts, Special Operations Forces (SOF) will gain military, political, and psychological advantages over their opponents. The OHD Concept integrates existing capabilities and disciplines into an updated and comprehensive approach that is applicable to all SOF core activities.
Year Published:
2015
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SMA Publication

Foreign Approaches to Gray Zone Conflicts

“Gray Zone cannot mean everything if it is to mean anything.” “Gray Zone” conflicts are not synonymous with “Hybrid War.” “irregular War” or “MOOTW.” Intent, not the means, primarily distinguishes “Gray Zone” conflicts from other types of conflict. Why conduct “Gray Zone” conflicts? To avoid major power war and costly penalties, hinder an effective response by intentionally blurring peacetime and wartime operations, and control Escalation.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Putin's Information Warfare in Ukraine

Russia has been using an advanced form of hybrid warfare in Ukraine since early 2014 that relies heavily on an element of information warfare that the Russians call “reflexive control.” Reflexive control causes a stronger adversary voluntarily to choose the actions most advantageous to Russian objectives by shaping the adversary’s perceptions of the situation decisively. Moscow has used this technique skillfully to persuade the U.S. and its European allies to remain largely passive in the face of Russia’s efforts to disrupt and dismantle Ukraine through military and non-military means. The West must become alert to the use of reflexive control techniques and find ways to counter them if it is to succeed in an era of hybrid war.
Year Published:
2015
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SMA Publication

The Applied Critical Thinking Handbook 7.0

The premise of the program at the University of Foreign Military and Cultural Studies (UFMCS) is that people and organizations court failure in predictable ways, that they do so by degrees, almost imperceptibly, and that they do so according to their mindsets, biases, and experience, which are formed in large part by their own culture and context. The sources of these failures are simple, observable, and lamentably, often repeated. They are also preventable, and that is the point of ‘red teaming’.
Year Published:
2015
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SMA Publication

Operating in the Gray Zone: An Alternative Paradigm

Recent events in Ukraine, Syria, Iraq, and the South China Sea continue to take interesting, if not surpris- ing, turns. As a result, many security experts are call- ing for revolutionary measures to address what they wrongly perceive to be a new form of warfare, called “hybrid” or “gray zone” wars, but which is, in fact, an application of classic coercive strategies. These strat- egies, enhanced by evolving technologies, have ex- ploited a number of weaknesses in the West’s security structures.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Risk and Ambiguity in the Gray Zone

Risk and ambiguity are central to activities in the Gray Zone. Policymakers can manipulate risk, and use it as a tool for deterrence or escalation management. They can also manipulate ambiguity. In the Gray Zone understanding risk and ambiguity is key to achieve intended and avoid unintended effects.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Special Operations Forces Operating Concept

Agility and flexibility are the foundational strengths that allow Special Operations Forces (SOF) to rapidly seize opportunities and adapt to unforeseen requirements and operational challenges. Facing a complex and uncertain future, the Nation expects SOF to apply these strengths to more fully integrate with partners and better identify and develop strategic opportunities to advance and protect US interests.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Joint Concept for Human Aspects of Military OPs

The Joint Concept for Human Aspects of Military Operations (JC-HAMO) describes how the Joint Force will enhance operations by impacting the will and influencing the decision making of relevant actors in the environment, shaping their behavior, both active and passive, in a manner that is consistent with U.S. objectives.1 Human aspects are the interactions among humans and between humans and the environment that influence decisions. To be effective at these interactions, the Joint Force must analyze and understand the social, cultural, physical, informational, and psychological elements that influence behavior. Actors perceive these elements over time, mindful of seasons and historical events, and with people having differing notions regarding the passage of time. Relevant actors include individuals, groups, and populations whose behavior has the potential to substantially help or hinder the success of a particular campaign, operation, or tactical action. Relevant actors may include, depending on the particular situation, governments at the national and sub-national levels; state security forces, paramilitary groups, and militias; non-state armed groups; local political, tribal, religious, civil society, media, and business figures; diaspora communities; and global/regional intergovernmental and non-governmental organizations.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Understand and Respond to Contemporary Russia

More than two years after Russia’s annexation of Crimea, the West continues coming to terms with the implications of this event. As discussed by the project’s the first report, the concept of ‘hybrid warfare’ quickly established itself, because it seemed to be particularly useful to explain recent changes in Russian defence and foreign policy. The report highlighted that the concept was indeed valuable in drawing the attention of policymakers to some new security challenges. At the same time, the report cautioned that beyond this initial usefulness, the concept of ‘hybrid warfare’ as an explanation for almost every Russian policy move is likely to do more harm than good to our understanding of developments in Russia, as well as to the process of identifying and implementing realistic responses.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Demystifying the Gray Zone: Libya, 2014‐Present

This case study is intended to highlight the dynamics of Gray Zone conflict in Libya since 2014. It places specific emphasis on the roles of non‐state actors within the conflict and how these actors utilize different levels of power to achieve their aims. With a focus on analyzing the dyadic relationships between various types of conflict actors, this research examines which types of dyads employ which instruments of power, as well as to what extent these activities fall within the Gray Zone of conflict as opposed to the more precisely delineated Black and White arenas. This research aims to assist practitioners and policy makers in determining how the types of actors involved in a conflict can influence which instruments of power deserve special consideration in that conflict. This investigation will also aid Special Operations Forces (SOF) in determining which types of belligerents may make effective partners depending on the type of adversary faced, and which instruments of power SOF should train and equip these partners to implement.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

The Conflict in the Donbas between Gray and Black

The current case study analyzes the presence and importance of Gray Zone conflict dynamics and the employment of various instruments of power during the still ongoing conflict in Eastern Ukraine (Donbas) since its beginning in 2014. More specifically, it studies the use of various instruments of power across a number of conflict dyads, present in the conflict. The case study’s findings can better inform practitioners and analysts about the presence, content, and effectiveness of utilizing different instruments of power in the Gray Zone.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Saudi-Iranian Gray Zone Competition in MENA

The United States is regularly challenged by the actions of states and non-state actors in the nebulous, confusing, and ambiguous environment known as the Gray Zone. Planners, decision makers, and operators within the national security enterprise need to understand what tools are available for their use in the Gray Zone and how to best develop, employ, and coordinate those tools. This report summarizes the results of simulations created and executed by the ICONS Project as part of a larger study to capture at least some of the information needed toward that end.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Violent Non-state Actors in the Gray Zone

Using the Virtual Think Tank (ViTTa) expert elicitation methodology, NSI asked six leading gray zone experts whether Violent Non-state Actors (VNSAs) belong in the definition of the gray zone. However, experts were reticent to answer this question; they thought the question missed the point. The focus should not be how to define the major threats that are facing the USG, but rather how to leverage all instruments of national power to respond to them. When pushed to answer the original question, experts largely conceded that VNSAs, by themselves, do not rise to a level of significant threat in the gray zone, but are key tools used by state actors to achieve their ends. They concluded by identifying other challenges and solutions facing the USG in the gray zone.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

ViTTa Assessment and Analysis of the Gray Zone

Within United States government (USG) and Department of Defense (DoD) spheres, the gray zone is a relatively new terminology and phenomena of focus for characterizing the changing nature of competition, conflict, and warfare between actors in the evolving international system of today. Accordingly, in January 2016, General Joseph Votel (US Army) requested that the Strategic Multi-Layer Assessment (SMA) team conduct a study of the gray zone. The SMA team was asked to assess how the USG can diagnose, identify, and assess indirect strategies, and develop response options against associated types of gray zone challenges. More specifically, the request emphasized that if the USG is to respond effectively to the threats and opportunities presented in the increasingly gray security environment, it requires a much more detailed map of the gray zone than it currently possesses.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Demystifying the Gray Zone: Colombia, Libya, Ukraine

The author of this report is Barnett S. Koven, Senior Researcher at the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START). Questions about this report should be directed to Barnett S. Koven at bkoven@start.umd.edu.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Specifying and Systematizing the Gray Zone

In their continued work on the changing nature of the threat environment General Votel et al (2016) forecast that the majority of threats to US security interests in coming years will be found in a “gray zone” between acceptable competition and open warfare. They define the gray zone as “characterized by intense political, economic, informational, and military competition more fervent in nature than normal steady-state diplomacy, yet short of conventional war,” (pp. 101). While this characterization is a useful guide, it is general enough that efforts by planners, scholars and analysts to add the level of specificity needed for their tasks can generated considerable variation in how the term is applied, and to which types of actions and settings it applies.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

9th Annual SMA Conference - No War/No Peace...

Since the end of the Cold War and with the advent of the new century, new geopolitical realities have emerged that have made classical wars with national military forces pitted against each other far less likely. What we are witnessing are new categories of conflict that cannot be considered full1scale wars in the classical sense but cannot be described as “peace” either. Small1scale conflicts are complemented with intense engagement in the Information and other Spheres. These will almost certainly have great implications in the legal domains as well new forms of alliances. Multiple factors have come into play for these trends to emerge. This is a story of change versus continuity, and the conference focused on what has changed since the collapse of the USSR. As such, there are structural and intellectual challenges that prevent the United States Government (USG) from adapting and thriving is this new environment.
Year Published:
2015
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SMA Publication

7th Annual SMA Conference - What Now, What Next?

The 7th Annual Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) Conference was held at Joint Base Andrews from 13-14 November 2013. The conference was focused on global megatrends and their implications in all spheres of national security. It is no exaggeration to state that the world today is a very different place than it was barely 12 years ago when the war against al Qaida and its affiliates began. As we move forward, continuing advances in various spheres such as the sociotechnical world will present both challenges and opportunities. The conference examined these and related themes and highlighted new insights from the social and neurosciences.
Year Published:
2013
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SMA Publication

The Shape of the Future Operating Environment

In July of this year, at the request of USSTRATCOM, SMA initiated an effort to address eight questions regarding the implications of the increasing numbers, and expanding capabilities, of US nuclear adversaries. This report addresses two of those questions:
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

Escalation Management in the Early Stages of International Crisis

This report evaluates how crisis actors respond to adversary actions in the early stages of an international crisis. We specifically consider the first three stages of a crisis: the trigger act from a challenger, the response act from the defender state which has been triggered, and then the counter-response
Year Published:
2024
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SMA Publication

Strategic Influence: Applying the Principles of Unconventional Warfare in Peace

The most important aspect of our containment strategy is that it serves to contain ourselves,” former President Dwight Eisenhower reportedly observed after he had left office. Perhaps the greatest problem facing the United States in the post-Cold War era is not our waning ability to deter the problematic peacetime activities of others; rather, it is that we have lost sight of the need to deter ourselves.
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

SMA Prior Work in the Information Environment: An Annotated Bibliography

The current SMA project, Integrating Information in Joint Operations (IIJO), builds on a strong foundation of prior SMA work on influence and information operations. The themes underlying the research reflect shifting priorities as SMA has responded to requests ranging counterterrorism to deterrence to great power competition.
Year Published:
2020
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SMA Publication

Chinese Strategic Intentions: A Deep Dive into China’s Worldwide Activities

This white paper was prepared as part of the Strategic Multilayer Assessment, entitled The Future of Global Competition and Conflict. Twenty-seven experts contributed to this white paper, providing wide-ranging assessments of China’s domestic and international activities in order to assess the future of China and the challenges that these activities may present to US interests. This white paper is divided into five sections and twenty-four chapters. While this summary presents some of the white paper’s high-level findings, the summary alone cannot fully convey the fine detail of the experts’ individual contributions, which are worth reading in their entirety.
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

TRADOC G-2 Modeling and Simulation Directorate China Futures Study

The Competitive Zone (or Gray Zone) is “an operational environment ‘churning with political, economic, and security competitions that require constant attention.’” Given Russia’s military actions in eastern Ukraine and China’s expansion in the South China Sea, “military and academic communities have attempted to describe conflict in the Gray Zone to create shared understanding and spur discussion on conflict and competition in this space.”
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

12th Annual SMA Conference- The Evolving Anatomy of Conflict in a Dynamically Changing World

The 12th Annual SMA Conference, entitled “The Evolving Anatomy of Conflict in a Dynamically Changing World,” was held 21-22 May 2019 at the General Jacob E. Smart Conference Center at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland. The conference theme was defined as:
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

Overcoming “the Silo Effect” in the Department of Defense

Different perspectives and operational goals across services allows for specialized expertise, but also creates a vulnerability for silo creation. At times, these silos can inhibit cooperation, limit mission effectiveness, and leave critical decision points inadequately addressed. There is a need for more deliberate planning and operational execution that cuts across multiple services and perspectives in order to better balance requirements, more efficiently plan, and more holistically address national security challenges. This need applies not only to operational decisions but also in evaluating ongoing programs to determine their continued effectiveness.
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

SMA's Future of Global Competition & Conflict (GCC) Russia Panel Discussion

On 8 May 2019, the Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA, Joint Staff, J39) office, with the support of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) and National Defense University (NDU), convened a panel discussion on Russia in support of the SMA Future of Global Competition and Conflict effort. The scope of the day’s event was Russian activities in the Gray Zone, its perception of global competition and conflict worldwide, and its long-term growth trends, economic activities, and diplomatic affairs. The event convened speakers from government, think tanks, and the academic community; each speaker offered prepared remarks, and then assembled to debrief and take questions.
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

Grand Strategy Alternatives

The SMA Future of Great Power Competition & Conflict project is researching how the United States might strategize to defend its global interests. This paper supports the project in deriving some grand strategy alternatives specifically related to China (twelve) and Russia (ten). The development of the alternatives draws on a broader spectrum of international relation’s theories than the restricted neorealist set generally employ. The study’s aims are to encourage the consideration of tangential approaches, suggest different framing mechanisms that could restructure our thinking about managing great power competition, and briefly outline a range of alternative ways to meet the challenges China and Russia pose.
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

SMA TRADOC White Paper- Russian Strategic Intentions

This white paper was prepared as part of the Strategic Multilayer Assessment, entitled The Future of Global Competition and Conflict, in direct response to a series of questions posed by the United States Army Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC). Twenty-three experts contributed to this white paper and provided wide-ranging assessments of Russia’s global interests and objectives, as well as the activities—gray or otherwise—that it conducts to achieve them. This white paper is divided into five sections and twenty-five chapters, as described below. This summary reports some of the white paper’s high-level findings, but it is no substitute for a careful read of the individual contributions.
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

Clash of Strategic Cultures

This paper seeks to describe the cultural and cognitive dissimilarities in how the United States and China pursue strategic competition. The first difference detailed involves how the two societies look at goals and time, as well as how those two factors lead to very different conceptions of strategy. The paper posits that the United States focuses more on a militaristic national security policy while China focuses more on economics and information. Other factors are described that attempt to explain how societal or cultural differences serve to enhance China’s strategy vis-à-vis the United States. Overall, the paper describes a future where China’s model may be more successful in a globalized world, which creates a magnetism for developing countries as well as the corporate sectors of developed countries. The paper concludes by briefly outlining American strengths and how it might use them to create a more effective strategy.
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

SMA Quick Concepts Series: Competition

The conceptual keystone within competition is relative advantage. Due to the fluid, persistent, and continual nature of competition, relative advantage refers to the position between two competitors, (1) either at a given point in time, or (2) in a particular area of competition, or (3) as a generalization of the aggregation of contests within the rivalry.
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

Outer Space; Earthly Escalation? Chinese Perspectives on Space Operations and Escalation

United States policymakers must prepare to manage escalation in West Pacific confrontations that involve space operations. How can they put themselves in the shoes of Chinese planners and manage escalation in the current strategic environment in space? We raise three key points.
Year Published:
2018
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SMA Publication

Mind Space: Cognition in Space Operations

To conduct deterrence operations, or manage escalation, requires anticipating how others will decide to respond to our actions. Anticipating your adversary is imperative for offense or defense. Thus, it is crucial to understand audiences’ decision-making. But how can you put yourself in the others’ shoes in space operations?
Year Published:
2018
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SMA Speaker Series (Tagged: Gray Zone)

SMA Speaker Series

China’s Economic, Scientific, and Information Activities in the Arctic: Benign Activities or Hidden Agenda?

China’s research and information-gathering activities in the Arctic have raised security concerns among other Arctic nations, particularly regarding infrastructure, natural resources, data management, and diplomatic influence. China’s involvement in the region began in 1996 with its proposal to establish a temporary research station on the Svalbard Archipelago—an initiative that eventually became permanent. In 2013, China obtained observer status in the Arctic Council and published its first Arctic policy in a 2018 White Paper. Since then, many nations have perceived China’s increasing Arctic activity as both an economic opportunity and as a potential security threat.
June 24, 2025
Dr. Stephanie Pezard
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SMA Speaker Series

Lawfare – Using/Misusing Law to Achieve Objective

Orde Kittrie is a Professor of Law at the Sandra Day O’Connor College of Law at Arizona State University. He is also a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. He is a leading expert on nonproliferation law and policy with a focus on Iran sanctions. He is also an expert on international law, including especially as it relates to the Middle East, and author of the book Lawfare: Law as a Weapon of War (Oxford University Press, 2016). The book describes how and why law is becoming an increasingly powerful and prevalent weapon of war, and illustrates this development with examples of lawfare use by the U.S., China, Israel, the Palestinians, and several non-governmental organizations and individuals.
June 6, 2016
Orde Kittrie
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SMA Speaker Series

Using Neuroscience to Understand Decision Making

Scott Huettel is the Jerry G. and Patricia Crawford Hubbard Professor and Chair of the Department of Psychology and Neuroscience, with secondary appointments in the Departments of Psychiatry and Neurobiology. His research uses a combination of behavioral, genetic, physiological, and neuroscience techniques to discover the neural mechanisms that underlie higher cognition, with a focus on economic and social decision making.
September 1, 2016
Huettel, S. (Duke)
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SMA Speaker Series

Perspective on Chinese Strategic Thought

Timothy L. Thomas is a senior analyst at the Foreign Military Studies Office (FMSO) at Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. He retired from the U.S. Army as a Lieutenant Colonel in the summer of 1993.
August 1, 2016
Thomas, T. (FMSO)
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SMA Speaker Series

Info OPs Countermeasures to Anti-Area/Access Denial

MAJ Wieck attended the Georgetown School of Foreign Service, earned a Master’s Degree in Education at George Fox University, and is currently assigned to the 152nd Theater Information Operations Group in Camp Parks, CA.
July 1, 2016
Wieck, B. MAJ (Army)
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SMA Speaker Series

How the Chinese Government Fabricates Social Media Posts for Strategic Distraction, not Engaged Argument

Gary King is the Albert J. Weatherhead III University Professor at Harvard University — one of 24 with the title of University Professor, Harvard’s most distinguished faculty position. He is based in the Department of Government (in the Faculty of Arts and Sciences) and serves as Director of the Institute for Quantitative Social Science.
July 28, 2016
King, G. (Harvard)
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SMA Speaker Series

Law in the Gray Zone: Lawfare and Legal Issues

CAPT Todd Huntley is currently assigned as the Deputy Assistant Judge Advocate General of the Navy for International and Operational Law. He also serves as a Special Advisor to the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Threat Reduction and Arms Control.
August 8, 2016
Huntley, T. CAPT (Navy)
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SMA Speaker Series

PLA Views of Information Warfare and Cyberwarfare

Dean Cheng is currently the Senior Research Fellow for Chinese Political and Military Affairs at the Heritage Foundation. He is fluent in Chinese, and uses Chinese language materials regularly in his work.
September 1, 2016
Cheng, D. (Heritage Foundation)
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SMA Speaker Series

Regaining Strategic Initiative in the Gray Zone

U.S. competitors pursuing meaningful revision or rejection of the current U.S.-led status quo are employing a host of hybrid methods to advance and secure interests that are in many cases contrary to those of the United States. These challengers employ unique combinations of influence, intimidation, coercion, and aggression to incrementally crowd out effective resistance, establish local or regional advantages, and manipulate risk perceptions in their favor.
June 8, 2016
Freier, N.
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SMA Speaker Series

Russian "Firehose of Falsehood" Propaganda

Dr. Christopher Paul is a Senior Social Scientist working out of RAND’s Pittsburgh office. Prior to joining RAND full-time in July of 2002, he worked at RAND as adjunct staff for six years. Chris received his Ph.D. in sociology from UCLA in 2001; he spent academic year 2001-02 on the UCLA statistics faculty.
July 29, 2016
Paul, C. (RAND)
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SMA Speaker Series

Identifying Predictive Gray Zone Indicators

Christine MacNulty has forty years experience as a consultant in long-term strategic -planning for concepts as well as organizations, futures studies, foresight, and technology forecasting, technology assessment and related areas, as well as socio-cultural change. For the last twenty years, most of her consultancy has been conducted for the Department of Defense.
June 13, 2016
MacNulty, C. (DOD Consultant)
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SMA Speaker Series

Iran’s Regional Policy After the Nuclear Agreement

Alireza Nader is a senior international policy analyst at the RAND Corporation and author of The Days After a Deal With Iran: Continuity and Change in Iranian Foreign Policy. His research has focused on Iran’s political dynamics, elite decisionmaking, and Iranian foreign policy. His commentaries and articles have appeared in a variety of publications and he is widely cited by the U.S. and international media.
September 5, 2019
Alireza Nader
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SMA Speaker Series

Cognitive Competition, Conflict, and War: An Ontological Approach

Robert “Jake” Bebber is an officer in the United States Navy. He has served at various locations throughout his career, including Afghanistan, Fort Meade, US 7th Fleet staff, Carrier Strike Group 12, Information Warfare Training Command-Corry Station, and US Special Operations Command.
May 6, 2025
Dr. Robert “Jake” Bebber (US Navy)
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SMA Speaker Series

Assessing Deterrence: Understanding Adversary Behaviour and Their Perception of our Behaviour

For Western allies to properly deter unwanted Russian actions, there must be a shared allied perception of Russian threats and behaviors.
April 8, 2025
Catherine Royle
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SMA Speaker Series

The Philippines, Beijing’s Bullying, and a Forgotten Struggle for Peace

Speaker: Dr. Haroro Ingram (United States Institute of Peace (USIP)).
February 21, 2025
‍Dr. Haroro J. Ingram
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SMA Speaker Series

Incorporating EMS Contestation in Strategic-Level Wargames

Electromagnetic spectrum (EMS) contestation occurs when two or more actors use EMS to gather information or disrupt an adversary’s ability to operate. War games must accurately reflect the prevalence of EMS contestation to prepare participants for real-world scenarios.
February 11, 2024
Ross Buchanan
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SMA Speaker Series

Understanding and Countering China's Maritime Gray Zone Operations

China is seeking to assert control over and advance its interests in large portions of Southeast Asia and the South China Sea (SCS).
January 30, 2025
Dr. Todd Helmus and Dr. Krista Romita Grocholski
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SMA Speaker Series

Strategic Culture - A Complex Model for a Complex Concept

In recent years, strategic culture has regained attention as US policymakers work to integrate deterrence strategies with allies and partners while understanding the strategic cultures of adversaries, like China and Russia.
November 19, 2024
Dr. Lawrence A. Kuznar
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SMA Speaker Series

The CCP-ification of Pacific Islands: What it Means for U.S. Strategy and What Can Be Done

China is expanding its influence in many Asia-Pacific countries by offering economic incentives and other forms of “good will,” which Chinese Communist Party (CCP) members use to fosters political corruption.
October 8, 2024
Cleo Paskal
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SMA Speaker Series

Ukrainian Resistance to Russian Disinformation: Lessons for Future Conflict

A key element of Ukrainian resistance to the Russian invasion has been its ability to counter Russian disinformation. In their recent report for RAND, Dr. Helmus and Dr. Holynska discuss Ukraine’s approach to combating disinformation and the lessons that the United States and NATO can draw from this effort.
September 19, 2024
Todd Helmus and Khrystyna Holynska
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SMA Speaker Series

The Defender's Dilemma: Why countering grayzone aggression is so difficult (and what options Western governments do have)

Western governments, including the United States, face significant challenges in identifying gray zone aggression. This form of aggression is often difficult to detect before the attack is fully underway, as it can originate from any source at any time.
September 5, 2024
Elisabeth Braw
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SMA Speaker Series

Irregular Warfare in Strategic Competition and Gray Zones: Prosecuting Authoritarian Subversion and Exploitative Use of Corruption and Criminality to Weaken Democracy

US adversaries, including China, Russia, and Iran, aim to diminish Western influence while expanding their own in many countries. They employ various strategies, such as leveraging proxies, transnational organized crime and kleptocrats, which can undermine democracies and the rule of law.
August 22, 2024
David Luna
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SMA Speaker Series

Russia’s Cyber Power Base: From Cybercriminals to Private Contractors

Justin Sherman spoke to the SMA audience about Russia’s cyber power base—not just the state and intelligence actors, but also the private contractors and private sector companies that play an important role in Russia’s cyber power.
August 7, 2024
Justin Sherman
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SMA Speaker Series

The Promise & Perils of AI: What We’ve Learned from Some of the Largest Real World Deployments of Generative & Classical AI to Understand Global News

One of the GDELT Project’s goals is to use artificial intelligence (AI) to better understand our world.
July 11, 2024
Dr. Kalev Hannes Leetaru
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SMA Speaker Series

Constructing Killwebs for Effects Based Targeting in Multi-Domain Operations

SMA hosted a speaker session with COL Brian Davis (Northeast Asia Regional Fusion Cell, US Forces Korea) as part of its SMA “Strategic Deterrence Frameworks” (SDF) Speaker Series.
January 9, 2024
Brian R. Davis
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SMA Speaker Series

Building U.S. Responses to Russia’s Threats to Use Nonstrategic Nuclear Weapons: A Game Theoretic Analysis of Brinksmanship

SMA hosted a speaker session with Ms. Krista S. Langeland (Deputy Lead, RAND Space Enterprise Initiative; Senior Physical Scientist) and Mr. Clinton Reach (RAND) as part of its SMA “Strategic Deterrence Frameworks” (SDF) Speaker Series.
January 16, 2024
Krista Langeland and Clinton Reach
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SMA Speaker Series

Beijing Rules: How China Weaponized Its Economy to Confront the World

During the last 25 years, China has strengthened its ability to economically coerce governments, companies, multilateral institutions, and individuals, bringing them in line with the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) desires. She summarized China’s statecraft as a “clearly communicated set of rewards and punishments based on gatekeeping access to China’s huge markets, capital, and investments.” China uses its influence over markets as a vector for measuring illiberal political will among corporations and governments. China’s economic statecraft is purely political in nature. This means that any government, corporation, or individual who does not abide by the CCP’s guidelines are subject to sanctions. Ms. Allen emphasized that this is a juxtaposition to US and Western statecraft, in which sanctions are used to further multilateral goals of the liberal order.
October 18, 2023
Ms. Bethany Allen (Axios)
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SMA Speaker Series

Influence and Perception Management Office

The Influence and Perception Management Office (IPMO) is a young office within the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Intelligence and Security (OUSD I&S). However, the need for an organization managing the US Armed Forces’ messaging has been debated for two decades among military and civilian leaders. The office’s first acting director, Mr. James Holly, emphasized that the evolving modern threat landscape has only increased the need for the IPMO over that time. During the years of IPMO’s creation, three Secretaries of Defense, under two administrations, signed off on its establishment, underscoring the need for this kind of office.
October 3, 2023
Mr. James Holly
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SMA Speaker Series

Escalation Management in International Conflict: The United States and its Adversaries

SMA hosted a speaker session with Ms. Egle Murauskaite (ICONS Project, University of Maryland) and Mr. Devin H. Ellis (Applied Research Laboratory for Intelligence and Security (ARLIS), University of Maryland) as part of its SMA “Strategic Deterrence Frameworks” (SDF) Speaker Series.Great power competition between democratic and autocratic states has been increasing in prevalence and intensity during recent years. As competition between nations with highly capable militaries—like the US and China—increases, academic researchers and decision makers are focusing on how crisis escalation can be avoided. Ms. Murauskaite and Mr. Ellis address this research question in their recent book, “Escalation Management in International Crises: The United States and its Adversaries.” Mr. Ellis commented that much more than traditional research went into the writing of this book. The team also performed modeling efforts, conducted tabletop games, and collaborated with other researchers to create a table of escalation. This table provides a wide array of activities that either lead to escalation or de-escalation of crisis among states. The identified activities are numerous, including many tools and activities in the gray zone.
April 25, 2023
Egle Murauskaite (ICONS Project, University of Maryland), and Devin H. Ellis (Applied Research Laboratory for Intelligence and Security (ARLIS), University of Maryland)
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SMA Speaker Series

Cooperation, Competition & Conflict: JADE SPEAR, China, and New Strategic Art

SMA hosted a speaker session with Mr. David J. Katz (USSOCOM) as part of its SMA “Strategic Deterrence Frameworks” (SDF) Speaker Series. JADE SPEAR began as a grassroots initiative with the goal of holding the Chinese shipping company, Pingtan Marine Enterprises, responsible for illegal and unethical fishing practices. It was started by nearly 30 action officers across 15 US departments, who volunteered their time. Since it began in 2020, JADE SPEAR has more than tripled the number of action officers taking part, doubled the number of participating departments, and has begun cooperating with seven US allies. JADE SPEAR targeted Pingtan Marine Enterprises through several efforts, including revoking the visas of Chinese workers, enhancing regulatory inspections of fishing vessels, revoking fishing licenses, and conducting counter-brand campaigns against the fishing company and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) among others. Mr. Katz commented that many of these efforts yielded positive outcomes. For example, 15 visas were revoked, and several examinations of fishing boats showed extreme violations that led to Pingtan Marine Enterprises being sanctioned by the US government and delisted by the Nasdaq.
March 14, 2023
David Katz (USSOCOM)
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SMA Speaker Series

Analyzing the Gray Zone

The Gray Zone is defined differently by many organizations, academics, and think tanks. Dr. Potter commented that despite Gray Zone being used mostly as a trendy term relating to strategic competition, its concepts were created from real life obstacles facing decision makers. However, because it has many different definitions, the Gray Zone is difficult to encapsulate using analytical tools. Inconsistencies among the multiple definitions of “Gray Zone” inhibit effective conversations and the term Gray Zone can be used too frequently as a political talking point. Additionally, the academic literature discussing the Gray Zone is lacking. There are many reports from think tanks, but few academic articles that discuss what the Gray Zone is and its implications for modern strategic competition.
October 19, 2022
Potter, P. (Associate Professor of Politics and Founding Director of the National Security Policy Center, University of Virginia)
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SMA Speaker Series

Competition in the Gray Zone: Countering China’s Coercion Against US Allies and Partners in the Indo-Pacific

SMA hosted a speaker session with Ms. Cristina Garafola (Associate Policy Researcher, RAND) as part of its SMA INDOPACOM Series.
May 24, 2022
Cristina Garafola
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SMA Speaker Series

Escalation Management in Gray Zone Crises: A Proposed Toolkit

SMA hosted a speaker session with Mr. Devin Hayes Ellis (University of Maryland), Lt Gen (Ret) Robert Elder, PhD (George Mason University), and Dr. Allison Astorino-Courtois (NSI) as part of its SMA General Speaker Series.
March 22, 2022
Dr. Allison Astorino-Courtois and Lieutenant General Robert Elder (USAF, retired)
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SMA Speaker Series

Russian Information Operations and War in Ukraine—What Can We Expect and Do?

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Thomas Rid (Professor of Strategic Studies, Johns Hopkins University) and Mr. Peter Pomerantsev (Senior Fellow, Johns Hopkins University) as part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series.
March 17, 2022
Dr. Thomas Rid and Mr. Peter Pomerantsev
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SMA Speaker Series

Russian Approaches to Strategic Deterrence and Tactical Coercion

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Samuel Charap (Senior Political Scientist, RAND) as part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series.
February 24, 2022
Samuel Charap
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SMA Speaker Series

Integrating Deterrence Across the Gray—Making It More Than Words

SMA hosted a speaker session with Mr. Robert Jones (USSOCOM), LTC Catherine Crombe (USSOCOM SOCCENT), and LTC Steven Ferenzi (USSOCOM SOCCENT) as part of its SMA General Speaker Series.
December 8, 2021
Lt. Col. Katie Crombe, Lt.Col. Steve Ferenzi, and Mr. Robert C. Jones
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SMA Speaker Series

Deterring Iran in the Gray Zone: Insights from Four Decades of Conflict

Iran has been increasing its gray zone activities to compete geopolitically with the US and other rivals. Mr. Eisenstadt commented that states which are not content with the geopolitical status quo, like China, Russia, and Iran, will increase their gray zone activities.
October 4, 2021
Michael Eisenstadt
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SMA Speaker Series

Escalation Management in Gray Zone Crises: The Proxy Factor

This research, supported by the DoD’s Minerva Research Initiative, looked at International Crisis Behavioral Project data on how crises evolve over time. The team asked what do we understand from the data on the role that proxies (often violent non-state actors) have on determining the direction and outcome of a crisis; that is, does the use of a proxy escalate a conflict, make violence more likely, and/or shield the patron state from retribution. Mr. Ellis defined a proxy conflict as a state acting as a patron to a client and offering funding, training, support, and protection. A patron state is likely to support a proxy for two reasons: a) to gain a supplementary military force, and b) to avoid attribution and counter attacks from the defending state.
July 29, 2021
Egle E. Murauskaite and Devin Ellis
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SMA Speaker Series

What Deters and Why in Taiwan, Korea, and the Gray Zone

RAND’s study on deterrence focused on two phases: interstate and gray zone aggression. Dr. Mazarr began by stating that interstate deterrence is often incorrectly associated with military presence, which is only one variable considered in overall deterrence. Clear and consistent messaging can often deter an adversary from taking an aggressive action before a military conflict ever starts. The potential aggressor’s perception of its adversary and whether the potential aggressor views the adversary’s messages as credible are more meaningful variables relating to overall deterrence. Ultimately, if a messenger can communicate to an aggressor that it can achieve its objectives through nonmilitary means, then military conflict will likely be avoided.
April 28, 2021
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SMA Speaker Series

Gaming Gray Zone Tactics: Design Considerations for a Structured Strategic Game

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Stacie Pettyjohn (RAND) and Ms. Becca Wasser (RAND) as a part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series. Dr. Pettyjohn first stated that the gray zone is “more usefully conceptualized as a tactic rather than a phase in conflict.” This is in part because it is difficult to identify which actions fall into one phase versus another as Russia, for example, takes gray zone actions across the spectrum. She explained that framing the gray zone as a tactic can help NATO and the West develop more appropriate responses to particular events. There are different types of gray zone tactics, each of which require different responses. To address this issue, Dr. Pettyjohn and Ms. Wasser created a framework to distinguish some of Russia’s gray zone tactics from one another. Two distinct variables are important for distinguishing these tactics: violent versus non-violent intervention, and diffused versus focused targets. Everyday, non-violent tactics are employed to weaken the West and increase Russian influence, but it is unclear how or whether they will work. Diffuse, violent tactics implicitly involve the threat of violence and include Russian efforts to form ties with criminal and paramilitary organizations. Targeted, non-violent tactics leverage the results of “everyday” actions and are employed to achieve a specific near-term goals. Finally, aggressive and directed short-term tactics have a specific objective and involve the threat or actual use of force. Dr. Pettyjohn then stated that Russia’s ability to achieve its objectives through gray zone tactics is largely dependent on the vulnerability of the target country. This vulnerability can be indicated by state fragility and polarization. Next, Ms. Wasser advised that NATO compel, not deter, Russia to stop engaging in “everyday” gray zone tactics. NATO retaliatory threats against non-violent gray zone tactics lack credibility, however, NATO often cannot come to a decision about what constitutes a certain threshold for response or what that response would be. The attribution of gray zone tactics also isn’t sufficient enough to change Russian behavior, and doing so imposes costs on the West. Ms. Wasser advised that NATO improves the resiliency of target nations, which will reduce their vulnerability to Russian gray zone tactics. NATO can also impede Russian violent gray zone tactics through deterrence by denial and Russian non-violent gray zone tactics through supporting civilian organizations, which are best positioned to counter non-violent tactics. To conclude, Ms. Wasser stated that the West may be winning the gray zone competition without realizing it. She also stated that NATO should focus on strengthening conventional deterrence, and the West should not ignore or overreact to Russian gray zone tactics; the West should recommend a better course of action instead.
February 25, 2020
Stacie Pettyjohn and Rebecca Wasser
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SMA Speaker Series

SMA's Chinese Strategic Intentions White Paper Panel Discussion- Part III (How the US, Its Allies, and Its Partner Nations Should Manage the Global Challenges Presented by China)

SMA hosted a panel discussion as a part of its Future of Global Competition & Conflict Speaker Series. The panelists included Mr. Dean Cheng (Heritage Foundation), Mr. Michael Mazarr (RAND), Dr. Robert Spalding III, Brig Gen, USAF (Ret.), and Lt. Col. Christopher D. Forrest (US Air Force HQ AF/A3K (CHECKMATE)). The moderator was Dr. Joseph G. D. Babb (US Army Command and General Staff College).
February 20, 2019
Babb, J. (US Army Command and General Staff College); Cheng, D. (Heritage Foundation); Mazarr, M. (RAND); Spalding, R. (Retired); Forrest, C. (US Air Force HQ AF/A3K (CHECKMATE))
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SMA Speaker Series

Hybrid War, the Gray Zone, and the Failure of American Strategic Thinking

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Donald Stoker (Atlas Organization) and Dr. Craig Whiteside (Naval Postgraduate School) as a part of its SMA General Speaker Series. During their brief, Dr. Stoker and Dr. Whiteside argued that US strategists and decision makers do not know how to think about war, which results in in either defeat or “forever wars.” The speakers offered four primary arguments that dispute the use of the terms “hybrid war” and “gray zone.” Hybrid war and gray zone: 1) are “bad theory,” 2) are based on bad or forgotten history, 3) propagate a dangerous tendency to confuse war and peace, and 4) undermine US political and strategic thinking. Definitions of hybrid war encompass nearly every characteristic of war, and across the literature, writers describe it as a new kind of warfare, a new kind of threat. It is unclear what hybridists are trying to argue, Dr. Stoker and Dr. Whiteside stated. Hybridists tend to use means- and methods-based arguments. Moreover, hybrid war describes the largely tactical nature of war, but does not give us a new form of war. A focus on hybrid war also produces the tacticization of strategy. Dr. Stoker and Dr. Whiteside then explained that all warfare blends conventional and irregular forces, and war’s very nature is to create ambiguity, seize the initiative, and paralyze the enemy. Regarding the gray zone, the speakers stated that there is no space between peace and war, arguing that such a gray zone does not exist. This is “bad theory” because it provides no logical, universally applicable foundation for analysis. It does not clarify; it confuses. Furthermore, they stated that countries can use subversion when they are at war or not. The term gray zone destroys one’s understanding of the difference between and war. The result is that US policy and strategy is often built on flawed ideas. The alternative, according to Dr. Whiteside and Dr. Stoker, is to return basic principles of strategic analysis and question any new term, theory, or claim. The speakers explained that to have a concrete basis for analysis, we must identify if the objective is to overthrow the enemy (i.e., unlimited war) or something else (i.e., limited war). They predicted that the US will see less usage of the terms hybridization and gray zone in the future as we return to great power competition. Dr. Stoker and Dr. Whiteside concluded by stating that US decision makers and strategists need to reattach the importance of distinguishing war from peace.
January 24, 2020
Dr. Donald Stoker and Dr. Craig Whiteside
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SMA Speaker Series

Learning Lessons from the Ukraine Conflict

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Robert Angevine (Institute for Defense Analyses (IDA)), Mr. Clark Frye (IDA), and Mr. John Warden (IDA) as a part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series. Dr. Angevine first explained that he and his colleagues conducted this research due both to shared topical interest and the lack of sufficient attention being paid to the lessons learned from the Ukraine conflict. Moreover, they argued that other efforts conducted by the Military Services and others to collect lessons from the conflict in Ukraine are notable, but generally cluster in two categories: geo-political and tactical/technical. Consequently, the current research effort was conducted in order to develop lessons in the broad middle ground, focusing on the operational level.
July 18, 2019
Dr. Robert G. Angevine, Clark Frye
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SMA Speaker Series

Modern Political Warfare: Current Practices and Possible Responses

Ms. Robinson focused her presentation on a recent RAND report that examined the practice of political warfare during the Cold War (using George Kennan’s definition as a basis) and similar types of activities today. She first outlined Kennan’s definition of political warfare and then explained how her work applied additional rigor to this definition.
May 15, 2019
Linda Robinson
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SMA Speaker Series

Is Fait Accompli the Primary Challenge for Deterrence in the 21st Century?

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Daniel Altman (Georgia State University) as a part of its SMA STRATCOM Academic Alliance Speaker Series.
December 12, 2018
Altman, D. (Georgia State University)
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SMA Speaker Series

Rival Power: Russia in Southeast Europe

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Dimitar Bechev (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill) as a part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series. During his presentation, Dr. Bechev spoke about Russia’s operations in Southeast Europe, particularly in the Balkan states.
September 18, 2018
Bechev, D. (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill)
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NSI Publications (Tagged: Gray Zone)

NSI Publication

Trajectory of U.S./North Korean Nuclear War

Hours after the Washington Post broke the story that North Korea may have miniaturized a nuclear warhead, enabling its ICBM to deliver a nuclear blow to U.S. soil, President Trump announced that if North Korea continues to provoke, will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen.”
Year Published:
2017
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NSI Publication

Smoke, Mirrors, and Mayhem: The Good Fight Remixed

The Army University Press created the Future Warfare Writing Program to generate ideas about possible complexities of future warfare, as presented in the U.S. Army Operating Concept.
Year Published:
2017
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NSI Publication

International Transgressions Magnify Gray Zone Challenges

The current international system presents multiple potential challenges to US interests. In recent years, state actors, especially but not limited to Russia and China, have taken actions that disrupt regional stability and potentially threaten US interests (Bragg, 2016).
Year Published:
2017
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NSI Publication

Specifying and Systematizing the Gray Zone

In their continued work on the changing nature of the threat environment General Votel et al (2016) forecast that the majority of threats to US security interests in coming years will be found in a “gray zone” between acceptable competition and open warfare.
Year Published:
2017
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NSI Publication

Discourse Insights into Future US-China Relations

The future of the US-China relationship seems increasingly uncertain, to say the least. Increased tensions between the two international powers were seemingly ignited when US President Donald Trump (President-elect at the time) engaged in a telephone call with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen on 2 December 2016
Year Published:
2017
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NSI Publication

Iran's Approach to Shaping | Influencing Operations

Michael Eisenstadt is Kahn Fellow, and director of the Military and Security Studies Program at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy. A specialist in Persian Gulf and Arab-Israeli security affairs, he has published widely on irregular and conventional warfare and nuclear weapons proliferation in the Middle East.
Year Published:
2016
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NSI Publication

Gray Zone Trends in Colombia, Libya and Ukraine

This report employs frequentist statistical analysis in order to model the effects of various factors, including the type of actors (state, violent non-state actor (VNSA) or civilian) involved and the prevalence of kinetic activity, on (de-)escalatory trends in Gray Zone conflicts.
Year Published:
2017
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