Deterring Iran in the Gray Zone: Insights from Four Decades of Conflict
Speaker(s): Eisenstadt, M. (Kahn Fellow & Director of Military and Security Studies Program, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy)
Date: 30 September 2021
Speaker Session Summary
SMA hosted a speaker session with Mr. Michael Eisenstadt (The Washington Institute), as part of its SMA STRATCOM Academic Alliance Speaker Series.
Iran has been increasing its gray zone activities to compete geopolitically with the US and other rivals. Mr. Eisenstadt commented that states which are not content with the geopolitical status quo, like China, Russia, and Iran, will increase their gray zone activities. Ultimately, these states want to weaken US credibility and geopolitical influence by attacking it through cyber warfare, use of proxies, and other gray zone activities. For Iran, competing in the gray zone allows it to advance its anti-US geopolitical agenda while avoiding conventional warfare. However, Iran will engage in conventional warfare if it must. US conception of competition as either in war or peace, provides Iran—which views itself in a constant state of competition—with an advantage to incrementally weaken the US over time.
Iran continues to increase its gray zone capabilities. In the 1980s, Iran’s gray zone activities were mostly wars fought through proxy militias; however, Iran’s current gray zone activities include, but are not limited to: cyber-attacks, information operations, and the threat of long-range missiles. Also, by spacing out its actions in the gray zone, Iran is able to decrease the chances of retribution from the US. For the US to better compete with Iran, the US will need to change how it conceptualizes the gray zone and how it processes its actions within. Mr. Eisenstadt commented that the US must figure out how to better align its deterrence strategy with its actions, force Iran to operate along less effective means, and understand that competing in the gray zone is a long-term strategy and campaign.
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Mr. Michael Eisenstadt Biography
Michael Eisenstadt is Kahn Fellow, and director of the Military and Security Studies Program at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy. A specialist in Arab-Israeli and Persian Gulf security affairs, he has published widely on irregular and conventional warfare and nuclear weapons proliferation in the Middle East.
Mr. Eisenstadt served for twenty-six years as an officer in the U.S. Army Reserve before retiring in 2010. His military service included:
- Active-duty stints in Iraq with the United States Forces-Iraq headquarters (2010) and the Human Terrain System Assessment Team (2008)
- In Israel, the West Bank, and Jordan with the U.S. Security Coordinator (USSC) for Israel and the Palestinian Authority (2008–2009)
- At U.S. Central Command headquarters and on the Joint Staff during Operation Enduring Freedom and the planning for Operation Iraqi Freedom (2001–2002)
- In Turkey and Iraq during Operation Provide Comfort (1991)
He has also served in a civilian capacity on:
- The Multinational Force-Iraq/U.S. Embassy Baghdad Joint Campaign Plan Assessment Team (2009)
- As a consultant or advisor to the congressionally mandated Iraq Study Group (2006)
- The Multinational Corps-Iraq Information Operations Task Force (2005–2006)
- The State Department's Future of Iraq defense policy working group (2002–2003)
In 1992, he took a leave of absence from the Institute to work on the U.S. Air Force Gulf War Air Power Survey.
Prior to joining the Institute in 1989, Mr. Eisenstadt worked as a military analyst with the U.S. government.
Mr. Eisenstadt earned an MA in Arab Studies from Georgetown University, a BA in Political Science from SUNY Binghamton, and has traveled widely in the Middle East.
His most recent publications include:
- Beyond Forever Wars and Great Power Competition: Rethinking the U.S. Military Role in the Middle East (Washington Institute, 2021)
- Deterring Iran in the Gray Zone: Insights from Four Decades of Conflict (Washington Institute, 2021)
- Training Better Arab Armies — with Kenneth Pollock (Parameters, 2020)
- Operating in the Gray Zone: Countering Iran’s Asymmetric Way of War (Washington Institute, 2021)
- The Great Middle Eastern War of 2019 — with Nadav Ben Hour (The American Interest, 2018)
- The Ties that Bind: Families, Clans, and Hizballah’s Military Effectiveness — with Kendall Bianchi (War on the Rocks, 2017)
- Iran After Sanctions: Military Procurement and Force-Structure Decisions (IISS, 2017)
- Mini-Hizballahs, Revolutionary Guard Knock-Offs, and the Future of Iran’s Militant Proxies in Iraq — with Michael Knights (War on the Rocks, 2017)
- Iran's Lengthening Cyber Shadow (Washington Institute, 2016)
- Military Engagement in the Broader Middle East — with Ambassador James Jeffrey (Washington Institute, 2016)
- The Strategic Culture of the Islamic Republic of Iran: Religion, Expediency, and Soft Power in an Era of Disruptive Change (Marine Corps University, 2015)
- Defeating ISIS: A Strategy for a Resilient Adversary and an Intractable Conflict (Washington Institute, 2014)
- An Enhanced Train-and-Equip Program for the Moderate Syrian Opposition: A Key Element of U.S. Policy Toward Syria and Iraq — with Jeffrey White (Washington Institute, 2014)
- Iran’s Influence in Iraq: Countering Tehran’s Whole-of-Government Approach — with Michael Knights and Ahmed Ali (Washington Institute, 2011)
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