Learning Lessons from the Ukraine Conflict
“Learning Lessons from the Ukraine Conflict“
Speakers: Angevine, R. (Institute for Defense Analyses (IDA)); Frye, C. (IDA); Warden, J. (IDA)
Date: 18 July 2019
Speaker Session Preview
SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Robert Angevine (Institute for Defense Analyses (IDA)), Mr. Clark Frye (IDA), and Mr. John Warden (IDA) as a part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series. Dr. Angevine first explained that he and his colleagues conducted this research due both to shared topical interest and the lack of sufficient attention being paid to the lessons learned from the Ukraine conflict. Moreover, they argued that other efforts conducted by the Military Services and others to collect lessons from the conflict in Ukraine are notable, but generally cluster in two categories: geo-political and tactical/technical. Consequently, the current research effort was conducted in order to develop lessons in the broad middle ground, focusing on the operational level. By examining these lessons learned, Dr. Angevine, Mr. Frye, and Mr. Warden were able to discern functional or temporal gaps in the literature surrounding this conflict, identify ways to address gaps, and best utilize the work that was already conducted. Mr. Frye highlighted key trends evident from Russian military operations in eastern Ukraine, while focusing on force structure and personnel, ground operations, air operations and air and missile defenses, and information operations. Mr. Warden then outlined the implications of the developments in those areas for the US military based on the lessons learned from the Ukraine-Russia conflict. Some of the primary implications were: 1) Russia was able to combine tactical mobility with air and information operations to succeed in Ukraine, and thus might use a similar tactic against the US and/or NATO nations; 2) If one considers a future conflict between Russia and a NATO nation, future operations are likely to occur in areas covered by Russia’s air and missile bases; and 3) Russia is adept at having paramilitary and operational forces operate at the same time, which will make counter operations more difficult in the future. To conclude, Dr. Angevine discussed the broader implications for the Ukraine conflict on future warfare. Specifically, he spoke about balancing the benefits and risks of connectivity, conducting operations in contested air environments, and unit size and dispersion.
Dr. Robert G. Angevine
Research Staff Member
Joint Advanced Warfighting Division, Institute for Defense Analyses
Dr. Angevine is a trained military historian, award-winning author, and experienced strategicanalyst. He has spent 17 years developing, executing, and managing projects designed to assistsenior decision-makers in the Departments of Defense and Homeland Security assess futurestrategic environments, identify potential opportunities and challenges, and develop appropriatestrategies. He has led research efforts on a broad range of topics, such as the organization of thecombatant command system, the role of information in warfare, the challenges of conductingmilitary operations with limited or no access to networked information systems, and newoperational, organizational, and training concepts for stability operations. In addition, he hasresearched and written numerous reports on highly complex subjects, including how to apply the U.S. military’s lessons learned effort following the 1973 October War to improve ongoing lessonslearned efforts, how to adapt future space architectures to possible foreign counter-spacethreats, how to respond to the future evolution of international borders, how to improve the U.S. military’s ability to adapt to disruption and innovate during protracted conflicts, and how toharness the organizational cultures of the military Services to accelerate innovation.
Dr. Angevine is also an experienced wargamer who has designed and conducted multiple, highlysuccessful wargames for the Department of Defense and the Services. He has also assessedprevious wargames in order to identify lessons learned regarding wargaming and the futuresecurity environment.
In addition to his work as a contractor for the U.S. government, Dr. Angevine has taught coursesin military history and strategic studies to students at George Washington University, GeorgeMason University, American University, and Duke University for over a decade and maintainedan active publication schedule.
Clark Frye
Clark Frye is a Research Associate in the Joint Advanced Warfighting Division of theInstitute for Defense Analyses in Alexandria, VA. At IDA, Clark focuses on securitycooperation, emerging technology, and the future of warfare, with a regional focuson Russia and Eastern Europe.Clark completed his Masters in Law and Diplomacy at the Fletcher School at TuftsUniversity in 2017. He was previously a demographic researcher at the Universityof Michigan, and has conducted independent research on cybersecurity andsecurity cooperation with Northrop Grumman and National Defense University.
John K. Warden
John K. Warden is a researcher in the Strategy, Forces and Resources Division (SFRD) at the Institute forDefense Analyses (IDA), where he contributes to studies and analysis in support of the Office of theSecretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Combatant Commands, and other national security agencies.Mr. Warden focuses on U.S. defense and foreign policy, defense strategy, deterrence and nuclearweapons, and related issues. He is the author and coauthor of numerous reports and articles on defenseand foreign policy, including “Limited Nuclear War: The 21st Century Challenge for the United States”(Livermore Papers on Global Security, No. 4, July 2018) and “North Korea’s Nuclear Posture: An EvolvingChallenge for U.S. Deterrence” (Proliferation Papers, Ifri, March 2017). Mr. Warden has previouslyworked at Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC), the Pacific Forum, and the Center forStrategic and International Studies (CSIS). He holds an M.A. in Security Studies from GeorgetownUniversity and a B.A. in Political Science and History from Northwestern University.
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