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Tagged: Region = South America

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SMA Publications (Tagged: South America)

SMA Publication

Demystifying the Gray Zone: Colombia, 2002-Present

This case study elucidates the dynamics of Gray Zone conflict with particular emphasis on the role of non- state actors. It does so through a detailed examination of the most recent phase (2002-present) of Colombia’s internal conflict (1964-present). More specifically, this research analyzes conflict dyads occurring between different types of conflict actors. It further examines which types of dyads leverage which instruments of power and to what extent activities are Gray versus Black or White across each type of dyad and instrument of power. Consequently, this research will help practitioners determine which instruments of power warrant careful consideration in Gray Zone conflicts depending on the types of actors engaged in conflict. This investigation will also aid Special Operations Forces in determining which types of belligerents may make effective partners and which instruments of power they should train and equip these partners to implement.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Chinese Strategic Intentions: A Deep Dive into China’s Worldwide Activities

This white paper was prepared as part of the Strategic Multilayer Assessment, entitled The Future of Global Competition and Conflict. Twenty-seven experts contributed to this white paper, providing wide-ranging assessments of China’s domestic and international activities in order to assess the future of China and the challenges that these activities may present to US interests. This white paper is divided into five sections and twenty-four chapters. While this summary presents some of the white paper’s high-level findings, the summary alone cannot fully convey the fine detail of the experts’ individual contributions, which are worth reading in their entirety.
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

US-DiGIA: USG Discoverable Information Terrain

The United States currently faces a complex and dynamic security environment. States are no longer the only critical actors in the international arena; rather, a diverse range of non-state entities also has the potential to affect US interests and security—for good or bad. Economic influence, information control and propaganda, political influence, and social discontent can be and are being utilized by state and non-state actors alike to achieve their goals, in many cases bypassing the need for direct military action. In response, the US military is challenged to accomplish more, across a greater variety of domains, while facing a constrained budget environment. There are two central implications of this: first, many of the most intractable security problems the US faces require a whole of government approach. Second, in a complex and evolving international environment characterized by new and often ambiguous threats, information itself is a critical asset.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

10th Annual SMA Conference - From Control to Influence

The Strategic Multi-Layer Assessment (SMA) office hosted the 10th Annual SMA Conference on 25-26 April 2017 at Joint Base Andrews. This year’s conference, formally titled “From Control to Influence? A View of—and Vision for—the Future,” brought together a multidisciplinary group of participants to consider how the US and its allies can more effectively counter the influence that recently re-emerging, capable states (such as China and Russia) and non-state actors (such as ISIS) exert on their neighbors and/or third parties through multiple elements of power.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Demystifying the Gray Zone: Colombia, Libya, Ukraine

The author of this report is Barnett S. Koven, Senior Researcher at the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START). Questions about this report should be directed to Barnett S. Koven at bkoven@start.umd.edu.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

The COVID Crisis: Implications for United States—and Global—Biosecurity

The United States’ (US) engagement of public health resources to meet the current SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) crisis has revealed vulnerabilities in testing and treatment components of biosecurity. Facing a severe shortage of available testing kits, the US Centers for Disease Control (CDC) attempted to develop its own test for COVID-19, rather than following World Health Organization (WHO) recommendations for testing methods. The lack of tests has made it difficult to track exactly how many people within each state, as well as the US at-large have been affected, which has implications both for the extent of public health response, and considerations for approaches to stabilize and sustain the national economy.
Year Published:
2020
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SMA Publication

Common Characteristics of "Successful" Deradicalization Programs of the Past

There is no “one size fits all” approach to disengagement and deradicalization—disengagement and deradicalization programs should be tailored to the specific environments and individuals/groups of interest. However, analysis of historical cases of disengagement and deradicalization programs reveals what appear to be several common characteristics of programs that have demonstrated some levels of success: creating a sense of hope and purpose, building a sense of community, providing individual attention and regimented daily schedules, and ensuring sustainable, long-term commitment following completion of the program (i.e., after- care).
Year Published:
2020
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SMA Publication

Rethinking Communication Influence from a Strategic Communication Approach

For over a decade, many within US defense and interagency circles maintain a belief they are ‘losing’ the communication influence battle, one its adversaries are excelling at due to seemingly better strategy and reach. Peer competitor infiltration into American elections, radical groups facilitating foreign fighter flow over chat applications, and/or failed attempts to counter narratives should reason for a glaring need for the US to change strategy. But surprisingly little or none of this strategic shift is occurring.
Year Published:
2020
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SMA Publication

Complex Adaptive Systems

In his interview with Lt Col David Lyle (US Air Force Academy) on 4 June 2019, Dr. Sean Lawson discusses how complexity might inform SMA’s Future of Global Competition & Conflict study. More specifically, Dr. Lawson argues that although it is important to look back at previous instances of the butterfly effect, butterfly effects are not possible to control because they are merely byproducts of a system’s existence.
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

Discrete, Specified, Assigned, and Bounded Problems: The Appropriate Areas for AI Contributions to National Security

The cluster of technologies associated with artificial intelligence (AI) research and development, and the implications of these technologies across the spectrum of human activity including national security, generates a blur of fast-moving technological, political, strategic, and ethical puzzles. For all their hyper-modern veneer, tracing the trajectories of historical thought associated with these puzzles offers some much-needed clarity. To this end, what follows is an overview of three relevant trajectories. While far from exhaustive, practitioners and theorists alike in national security should have a solid grounding in these thought trajectories to facilitate reasoned decisions about AI research and development.
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

Investing In Bad Governance: China and Latin America

Though there have been many reports of the strengthening of commercial and financial relations between Latin America and China, comparatively few explore the conditions within the countries of Latin America that facilitated this engagement. The study proceeds as follows.
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

Violent Extremist Organizations (VEOs): The Strategic Importance of Defining the Enemy

In this paper, as part of SMA’s Invited Perspectives series, Mr. Vern Liebl indicates that ‘violent extremist organization’ (VEO) may not be an accurate term for describing modern terrorist entities. To illustrate this point, Mr. Liebl first provides a brief history of how the term ‘VEO’ entered US defense, intelligence, and law enforcement officials’ lexicon and became commonly used. He then defines what the term ‘VEO’ means and questions whether it still appropriately applies to the organizations that have been labelled as such (namely Hezbollah, Al Qaeda, and the Islamic State).
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

The Future of Global Competition & Conflict Comparative Analysis: A Media Ecology & Strategic Analysis (MESA) Group Report

This report provides a comparative analysis of Chinese, Russian, Iranian, and Venezuelan media narratives regarding visions of the future of global competition, including their instruments of exerting power (DIME), purported vulnerabilities and necessary capabilities, projected allies and adversaries, views on the future of global order (FGO), the US, and EU, as well as the available means by which global competition should be managed.
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

Chinese Strategic Intentions: A Deep Dive into China’s Worldwide Activities

This white paper was prepared as part of the Strategic Multilayer Assessment, entitled The Future of Global Competition and Conflict. Twenty-seven experts contributed to this white paper, providing wide-ranging assessments of China’s domestic and international activities in order to assess the future of China and the challenges that these activities may present to US interests. This white paper is divided into five sections and twenty-four chapters. While this summary presents some of the white paper’s high-level findings, the summary alone cannot fully convey the fine detail of the experts’ individual contributions, which are worth reading in their entirety.
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

Inequality, Risk Sensitivity, and Grievance in Context – An NSI Aggrieved Populations Analysis

Success in the global competition between the US, China, and Russia may be determined by a country’s ability to influence the world’s populations. A population’s aspirations and grievances can drive national security problems for all three powers when frustrated aspirations and grievances lead to state instability, terrorism, or other challenges such as unwanted or unmanaged migration. In accordance with the questions posed in the J39 Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) Great Power Competition tasking, this report summarizes context-specific qualitative and quantitative analyses of the conditions impacting population aspirations and grievances for 25 countries, and how these impact US, Chinese, and Russian interests. Issues include:
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

Statistical Modeling of Risk and Political Instability in the Influence Environment – An NSI Aggrieved Populations Analysis

Success in the global competition between the US, China, and Russia may be determined by a country’s ability to influence the world’s populations. A population’s aspirations and grievances can drive national security problems for all three powers when frustrated aspirations and grievances lead to state instability, terrorism, or other challenges such as unwanted or unmanaged migration. In accordance with the questions posed in the J39 Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) Great Power Competition tasking, this study is intended to address the following issues through the use of country-level global statistical modeling, including identifying or anticipating:
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

Venezuela Country Report- An NSI Aggrieved Populations Analysis

Two datasets on wealth and status distribution in Venezuela were analyzed: 2006 World Bank quintile and decile estimates of income, and 2014 Venezuelan Encuesta de Condiciones de Vida (ENCOVI) data on income by occupational category.
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

South Korea Country Report- An NSI Aggrieved Populations Analysis

Three datasets on wealth and status distribution in South Korea were analyzed: 2015 World Bank quintile and decile estimates of income, and International Labor Organization (ILO) income by occupation data for years 2017 and 2012.
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

Brazil Country Report- An NSI Aggrieved Populations Analysis

Three datasets on wealth and status distribution in Brazil were analyzed: 2015 World Bank centile estimates of income, and International Labor Organization (ILO) income by occupation data for the years 2017 and 2012.
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

SMA Quick Concepts Series: Global Influence

“Influence” and “power” are foundational to how geopolitics are discussed and understood. Many American planners and policymakers are strong believers in global influence: fearing both its relative and absolute loss; seeking to “grow” and “spread” the United States’ influence; and trying to counter the influence of critical competitors such as the People’s Republic of China, the Russian Federation, and the Islamic Republic of Iran (Jafri & Stevenson, 2019).
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

Using Narratives to Shape Chinese and Russian Behavior – A Future of Global Competition and Conflict Virtual Think Tank Report

Dean Cheng (Heritage Foundation), Dr. Skye Cooley (Oklahoma State University), Dr. Nicholas J. Cull (University of Southern California), Dr. John Delury (Yonsei University), Dr. Sean McFate (National Defense University), Dr. Nicholas Michelsen (King’s College, London), Dr. Christopher Paul (RAND Corporation), Dr. Laura Roselle (Elon University), Dr. Scott Ruston (Arizona State University), Dr. Jaganath Sankaran (University of Texas at Austin), Lieutenant Colonel Maciej Zaborowski (US Central Command)
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

Potential for a China-Russia and/or US-China-Russia Alliance – A Future of Global Competition and Conflict Virtual Think Tank Report

[Q9] Are there any commonly valued objectives that may enable an alliance between China and Russia against US interests, or among all three nations allowing a reduction of tensions?
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

Chinese and Russian Economic Statecraft: Strategic Threat or Benign Business Activity? – A Future of Global Competition and Conflict Virtual Think Tank Report

Dr. Kerry Brown (King’s College, London), Dean Cheng (Heritage Foundation), Major Christopher Culver (US Air Force Academy), Abraham M. Denmark (Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars), Peter E. Harrell (Center for a New American Security), Anthony Rinna (Sino-NK), Dr. Derek M. Scissors (American Enterprise Institute), Andrew Small (German Marshall Fund), Dr. Robert S. Spalding III (US Air Force), Yun Sun (Stimson Center), Nicolas Véron (Bruegel and Peterson Institute for International Economics), Dr. Yuval Weber (Daniel Morgan Graduate School of National Security), Ali Wyne (RAND Corporation), Lieutenant Colonel Maciej Zaborowski (US Central Command)
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

Power Under Parity – A Future of Global Competition and Conflict Virtual Think Tank Report

Paul I. Bernstein (National Defense University), Dean Cheng (Heritage Foundation), Abraham M. Denmark (Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars), Michael Fabey (Jane’s Fighting Ships), Dr. Peter Layton (Griffith University), Dr. Edward N. Luttwak (CSIS), Dr. Jahara Matisek (US Air Force), Dr. Sean McFate (National Defense University), Dr. Lukas Milevski (Leiden University), Anthony Rinna (Sino-NK), Dr. Jaganath Sankaran (University of Texas at Austin), Dr. Robert S. Spalding III (US Air Force), Dr. Michael D. Swaine (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace), Nicolas Véron (Bruegel and Peterson Institute for International Economics)
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

China’s and Russia’s Approach to Regional and Global Competition – A Future of Global Competition and Conflict Virtual Think Tank Report

[Q8] How do China and Russia approach global, not just regional, arenas for competition?
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

Types and Locations of Challenges to US Interests, 2019-2029 – A Future of Global Competition and Conflict Virtual Think Tank Report

[Q5] In which regions should the US expect significant challenges to its interests over the coming decade? What form will these challenges take (e.g., poor/instable governance, rising hegemons, aggrieved populations, violent non-state actors, external influence operations, etc.) and which US interests will these challenges most likely impact?
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

Russia’s Sentimental Revisionist Approach to Competition and Conflict – A Future of Global Competition and Conflict Virtual Think Tank Report

[Q4] How does Russia perceive the continuum of conflict? How does Russia plan for, operate within, and manage risk within the competitive space? From the Russian perspective, what constitutes legitimate or acceptable deterrence, compellence, and escalation management? What are the implications of those differences for senior political and military decision makers in the US?
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

Kinetic and Non-Kinetic Tactics of Competing Powers Over the Coming Decade – A Future of Global Competition and Conflict Virtual Think Tank Report

[Q2] What kinetic (e.g., weapon systems) and non-kinetic (e.g., disinformation campaigns, financial market manipulation, political tampering) tactics are and will be used by competing powers domestically and abroad to undercut US interests over the coming decade?
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

The Character of Global Competition and Conflict, 2019-2029 – A Future of Global Competition and Conflict Virtual Think Tank Report

[Q1] How will the character of global competition and conflict change over the next decade, and which emerging global trends and conditions will drive this change? What are the implications of expected future global conditions for developing integrated US strategy and plans to defend US interests over both short- and long- term timeframes?
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Speaker Series (Tagged: South America)

SMA Speaker Series

Emerging Strategic & Geopolitical Challenges: Operational Implications for US Combatant Commands

SMA hosted a panel with Mr. Michael A. Clark (Director for Acquisition and Technology (J9), USCYBERCOM), Ms. Kayse Jansen (Branch Chief, Deterrence Analysis and Outreach, Plans and Policy Directorate, USSTRATCOM/J5), Mr. James “JJ” Jenista (Air Force Civilian, Joint Training, Exercise, and Wargaming Directorate (J7), USNORTHCOM & NORAD), Mr. Robert C. Jones (Senior Strategist, USSOCOM J5-JSOU Donovan Integration Group), Mr. Jimmy Krakar (Academic Coordinator, USEUCOM), Ms. Lesley Kucharski (Analyst, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory), Dr. Robert M. Toguchi (Chief, Concepts Division, Force Modernization Directorate (FMD), USASOC), Col David W. Walker (Policy Division Chief, USCENTCOM CCJ5), and Ms. Michele K. Wolfe (Senior Operations Research Analyst, USAFRICOM) as part of its SMA General Speaker Series.
January 25, 2023
Clark, M. (Director for Acquisition and Technology (J9), USCYBERCOM); Jansen, K. (Branch Chief, Deterrence Analysis and Outreach, Plans and Policy Directorate, USSTRATCOM/J5); Jenista, J. (Air Force Civilian, Joint Training, Exercise, and Wargaming Directorate (J7), USNORTHCOM & NORAD); Jones, R. (Senior Strategist, USSOCOM J5-JSOU Donovan Integration Group); Krakar, J. (Academic Coordinator, USEUCOM); Kucharski, L. (Analyst, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory); Toguchi, R. (Chief, Concepts Division, Force Modernization Directorate (FMD), USASOC); Walker, D. (Policy Division Chief, USCENTCOM CCJ5); Wolfe, M. (Senior Operations Research Analyst, USAFRICOM)
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SMA Speaker Series

How Developments in Brain Science Afford Military Utility

The use of sarin gas in Syria and the nerve agent VX to assassinate Kim Jong-nam, and ongoing international efforts in dual-use brain science (such as those described in the accompanying papers) prompt renewed interest in the current and near-term possibilities of developing and employing neuroweapons.
April 17, 2017
James Giordano and Drs. Diane DiEuliis
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SMA Speaker Series

China and the Global South: Big Ambitions, Big Challenges

China’s economic slowdown coupled with its ambition to continuously compete with the US both economically and politically is compelling Beijing to intensify its efforts to increase political influence in the Global South. Mr. Schuman, who authored an article on why China will struggle to win over the Global South and how India can aid the US in countering China’s efforts, suggested that China’s ultimate geopolitical goal is to reshape the current political world order.
February 27, 2024
Michael Schuman
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SMA Speaker Series

Freedom in the World 2023: Marking 50 Years in the Struggle for Democracy

For fifty years, Freedom House has published its assessment of the state of democracy around the world. Freedom House categorizes countries and territories in to three groups based off a point system: 1) free, 2) partly free, and 3) not free. Dr. Gorokhovskaia mentioned that 2022 saw a continuation of a 17-year democratic slide; however, there were several bright spots for democracy around the world. For instance, during 2022 only one more country that became less democratic (35) than countries became more democratic (34). In comparison, during 2021, 35 more countries became more autocratic (60) than countries that became more democratic (25). Several factors that lessened the global strength of democracies during 2022 included a rash of military coups. For example, Burkina Faso experienced several military coups itself that resulted in the suspension of its constitution. Burkina Faso had the largest point decrease of 23-points during 2022. Columbia experienced the largest growth in democratic strength, increasing by 6 points. Columbia’s increase was due to more fair and competitive political elections than it had experienced in recent years. Individual country reports go into greater detail.
September 20, 2023
Yana Gorokhovskaia (Freedom House)
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SMA Speaker Series

A World Emerging from Pandemic: Implications for Intelligence and National Security (Part 1 of 2)

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Kacper Gradon (Associate Professor, Department of Cybersecurity, Faculty of Electronics and Information Technology, Warsaw University of Technology (Poland)), Dr. Layla M. Hashemi (Researcher & Data Analyst, Terrorism, Transnational Crime and Corruption Center (TraCCC), George Mason University), Ms. Sarah Meo (PhD Candidate, Public Policy, Schar School of Policy of Government, George Mason University), and Dr. Michael Vlahos (Senior Fellow, The Institute for Peace and Diplomacy) as part of its SMA NIU Panel Discussion.
October 5, 2022
Gradon, K. (Associate Professor, Department of Cybersecurity, Faculty of Electronics and Information Technology, Warsaw University of Technology (Poland)); Hashemi, L. (Researcher & Data Analyst, Terrorism, Transnational Crime and Corruption Center (TraCCC), George Mason University); Meo, S. (PhD Candidate, Public Policy, Schar School of Policy of Government, George Mason University); Vlahos, M. (Senior Fellow, The Institute for Peace and Diplomacy)
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SMA Speaker Series

Autonomous Weapons and the Future of War

The use of autonomous weapons systems is frequently debated by countries’ leadership, military personnel, and scholars because of its potentially destructive capabilities.
June 3, 2022
Paul Scharre
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SMA Speaker Series

Barriers to Strategic Success in US Special Operations Forces Counterterrorism

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Katy A. Lindquist (Principal Research Scientist, NSI) and Dr. Barnett S. Koven (Data Science Manager, Deloitte Consulting; Adjunct Faculty Member, Joint Special Operations University) as part of its SMA SOCOM Speaker Series.
February 21, 2022
Dr. Katie A. Lindquist and Dr. Barnett S. Koven
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SMA Speaker Series

Global Strategic Situation Awareness: Economy

SMA hosted a speaker session, presented by Mr. Pete Steen (Joint Staff, J5), as a part of its SMA UK MoD Speaker Series.Mr. Steen began his presentation by posing the question, “How did the pandemic affect the US economy, and what are the implications for national security?” He noted that pre-COVID, the underlying narratives that characterized the strategic environment were trade war, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), cheap money, and digital surveillance. In contrast, the post-COVID themes will likely shift to include multipolar competition and lessons on efficacy, durable damage distribution, and uneven digitization. Mr. Steen argued that there is a growing narrative that compares the US to China in terms of their effectiveness in handling the pandemic. He noted that this is an example of the ongoing competition between authoritarianism and democracy as a model for society. According to Mr. Steen, China is propagating a message that argues that the tools of authoritarianism have allowed it to manage the pandemic better than the US and democracies, more generally. This narrative reflects the competition for perceived success, not only in the healthcare realm but also in terms of the economy.
December 10, 2020
Peter Steen
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SMA Speaker Series

SMA's Chinese Strategic Intentions White Paper Panel Discussion- Part I (Chinese Outreach Activities)

SMA hosted a panel discussion as a part of its Future of Global Competition & Conflict Speaker Series. The panelists included Prof. Anoush Ehteshami (Durham University), Dr. Cynthia Watson (National Defense University), Dr. Thomas Sherlock (United States Military Academy, West Point), and Col E. John Gregory (United States Military Academy, West Point). The moderator was Ms. Nicole (Peterson) Omundson (NSI, Inc.).
February 4, 2019
Anoush Ehteshami, Dr. Cynthia Watson, and Col E. John Gregory
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SMA Speaker Series

Sourcing Air Supremacy: Determinants of Change in the International Fighter Jet Network

SMA hosted speaker session presented by Lt Col Ray Rounds (US Air Force) as a part of its SMA General Speaker Series. During his presentation, Lt Col Rounds argued that international arms transfers are not just economic exchanges or transfers of goods, but also crucial parts of larger state-to-state relationships. To begin, he presented his primary research question: Under what conditions are states willing to accept the inefficiencies and costs associated with sourcing change?
October 2, 2019
Ray Rounds
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SMA Speaker Series

Modeling Persuasion through Human/Machine Coding

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Monica Rankin (University of Texas at Dallas) and Dr. Vincent Ng (University of Texas at Dallas) as a part of its SMA General Speaker Series.
December 7, 2018
Ng, V. (University of Texas at Dallas); Rankin, M. (University of Texas at Dallas)
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NSI Publications (Tagged: South America)

NSI Publication

IRGC-QF Malfeasant Activity Outside of the CENTCOM AOR

Experts interviewed state that they could find no evidence of recent changes in IRGC-QF activity outside of the CENTCOM area of responsibility (AOR). However, there are micro-trends that are of note, particularly for analysts focused on high risk, low probability events.
Year Published:
2020
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NSI Publication

Gray Zone Trends in Colombia, Libya and Ukraine

This report employs frequentist statistical analysis in order to model the effects of various factors, including the type of actors (state, violent non-state actor (VNSA) or civilian) involved and the prevalence of kinetic activity, on (de-)escalatory trends in Gray Zone conflicts.
Year Published:
2017
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