Global Strategic Situation Awareness: Economy

Speaker: Steen, P. (US Joint Staff, J5)

Date: 10 December 2020

Speaker Session Summary

SMA hosted a speaker session, presented by Mr. Pete Steen (Joint Staff, J5), as a part of its SMA UK MoD Speaker Series.

Mr. Steen began his presentation by posing the question, “How did the pandemic affect the US economy, and what are the implications for national security?” He noted that pre-COVID, the underlying narratives that characterized the strategic environment were trade war, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), cheap money, and digital surveillance. In contrast, the post-COVID themes will likely shift to include multipolar competition and lessons on efficacy, durable damage distribution, and uneven digitization. Mr. Steen argued that there is a growing narrative that compares the US to China in terms of their effectiveness in handling the pandemic. He noted that this is an example of the ongoing competition between authoritarianism and democracy as a model for society. According to Mr. Steen, China is propagating a message that argues that the tools of authoritarianism have allowed it to manage the pandemic better than the US and democracies, more generally. This narrative reflects the competition for perceived success, not only in the healthcare realm but also in terms of the economy.

Mr. Steen then noted that there is extensive research available on how service industries have suffered drastically more than manufacturing industries as a result of COVID-19. This research also revealed that “knowledge workers” were not as substantially affected from COVID-19, especially compared to service industries. Finally, minorities within the service industries suffered disproportionately more than any of the other subgroups. This research is critical due to its potential to significantly reduce the productivity growth of global economies.

Speaker Session Recording

To access a recording of the session, please email Ms. Nicole Omundson (nomundson@nsiteam.com).

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