In 2019, at the request of the United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), SMA initiated a study to understand the strategic implications of destabilizing population dynamics within the Central Region. SMA considered drivers of instability in the region to include long-term internally displaced persons and refugees, spread of radical ideologies and extremism, great power competition, disruptive non-state actors, and the potential for “black swan” scenarios (POCs: COL Andrew DeJesse).

Overarching Issue: Great power interests converge in the Central Region, making it strategically important and, thus, a potential site of conflict and miscalculation in the pursuit of countervailing US, Russian, and Chinese interests. The region suffers from added drivers of instability that could intensify this competition or present opportunities for greater cooperation, including:

• multiple states nearing economic or political collapse or transitions—potentially accelerated by disruptive external pressures or the activities of non-state actors;

• massive populations of internally-displaced persons (IDPs) and refugees; and

• traumatized, aggrieved, and unsupported populations vulnerable to radical ideologies, recruitment, or manipulation by violent non-state actors.

Performers:

NSI, Univ. of MD ICONS, CART, MESA, Intelligent Biology, George Mason University, TRADOC G-2, Monmouth College, Kutztown University, Oklahoma State University, University of British Columbia, University of Akron, University of Maryland, University of Albany SUNY, Center for Advanced Operational Culture Learning (CAOCL)), Western Carolina University, Creighton University, University of Nebraska Omaha

The following is the list of reports completed in support of this effort. Reports and events can be accessed via the links provided

*Reports without a link can be requested by emailing mariah.c.yager.ctr@mail.mil from a .mil or .gov email address

Levant & Gulf Destabilizing Events (Questions A1-9)

State-Level Instability in the Gulf and the Levant – This report by NSI integrates the following individual reports:

• Question A1. Stability in US-Egyptian Relations: Why the United States is Unlikely to Make a Major Policy Shift in Response to Egyptian Events (A ViTTa® report) by NSI
• Questions A3 & A4. Potential Paths to Instability in Jordan (A ViTTa® report) by NSI
• Question A5. Regime Collapse in Syria: Expectations and Implications (A ViTTa® report) by NSI
• Question A6. US Action and Inaction in Lebanon: Charting the Best Course for US Interests in Great Power Competition (A ViTTa® report) by NSI
• Question A9. Assessing Buffers and Drivers of Conflict in the Arab Gulf (A ViTTa® report) by NSI
• Strategic Narrative Analysis of Egyptian News Media by Dr. Robert Hink, Dr. Marco Ehrl, William Stefanism, Dr. Sara Kitsch, Dr. Asya Cooley, and Skye Cooley
• Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Futures Study with an Assessment of Syrian Refugee Camp Radicalization Dynamics Executive Summary by Howard Lee, Jumanne Donahue, Luke Roth, and David Hunter-Chester
• Invited Perspective: Oman Succession Crisis 2020 by Mr. Vern Liebl
• Invited Perspective: How Seasonal Migration May Reduce Security Threats from Climate-Induced Migration by Dr. Justin Schon

IDPs, Refugees & the Spread of Radical Ideologies (Questions B1-5)

Radicalization – This report by NSI, integrates the following individual reports:

• Question B1. Defying the Cycle of Violence Among Children of War (A ViTTa® report) by NSI Nicole Omundson, Dr. Allison Astorino-Courtois, and Dr. Lawrence Kuznar
• Question B2. Common Characteristics of Successful Deradicalization Programs of the Past (A ViTTa® report) by NSI George Popp, Sarah Canna, and Jeff Day
• Question B3. Responsibility for Displaced Civilians and Effective Voices for Preventing Radicalization (A ViTTa® report) by NSI Tom Rieger and Aleksandra Goncharova
• Question B4. Reintegrating the Radicalized Challenges: Lessons Learned and How to Overcome Barriers (A ViTTa® report) by NSI Dr. Sabrina Polansky and Weston Aviles
• Question B5. Dealing with Radicalization in IDP Camps (A ViTTa® report) by NSI Dr. Lawrence Kuznar, Ali Jafri, and Eric Kuznar
• Young People Aged 0-17: Neuroscience and Cognition to Break Cycles of Radicalization by Dr. Nicholas Wright
• Child’s Play: Cooperative Games as Tools of Deradicalization by Dr. Skye Cooley, Dr. Asya Cooley, Dr. Robert Hink, and Dr. Sara Kitsch
• Population Dynamics and Radicalization in the CENTCOM AOR: Post-Brexit EU2 + 1 and the UN vs. a US-led Coalition of the Willing by Dr. David Dorondo
• Deradicalization in History and Psychology: A Selective Review of the Literature by Dr. Peter Suedfeld, Lindsy Grunert, and Bradford H. Morrison
• Affording New Futures: The Neuroscience and Cognition of Reintegration and Reconciliation by Dr. Nicholas Wright
• Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Futures Study with an Assessment of Syrian Refugee Camp Radicalization Dynamics Executive Summary by Howard Lee, Jumanne Donahue, Luke Roth, and David Hunter-Chester
• Preventing Radicalization among Internally Displaced People in Syria and Iraq by Dr. Karl Kaltenthaler and Dr. Arie Kruglanski

Disruptive Non-state Actors & Great Power Competition (Question B6-11)

Great Power Competition – This report by NSI, integrates the following individual reports:

• Question B10. Sino-Russian Competition: Self-Inflicted Competition in Central Asia (A ViTTa® report) by NSI Sarah Canna and Erik Kuznar
• A Strategic Analysis of Violent Extremist Organizations in the United States Central Command Area of Responsibility by Michael Logan, Lauren Zimmerman, and Gina S. Ligon
• A “Colder War” Future in the USCENTCOM AOR? Realpolitik Trajectory of Major Powers and Regional Players by Maorong Jiang and David R. Donrondo
• Central Region Instability Dynamics Lt General (Ret) Robert Elder and Dr. Alexander H. Levis

Black Swan Scenarios (Questions B12-15)

Black Swan Scenarios – This report by NSI, integrates the following individual reports:

• Key Factors Affecting Black Swans and Gray Rhinos in the USCENTCOM AOR by Lawrence A. Kuznar and Eric C. Kuznar
• Red Teaming Great Power Competition in the USCENTCOM AOR by Gary A. Ackerman, Anna Wetzel, Douglas Clifford, Hayley Peterson, and Jenna Latourette

*Reports without a link can be requested by emailing mariah.c.yager.ctr@mail.mil from a .mil or .gov email address.

SMA held a speaker series to support the CENTCOM effort. Approximately 850 audience members dialed into the 14 CENTCOM speaker events. Links to the recorded events, when available, are below:

• 22 August 2019: Prof Mark Katz (George Mason University) – When the Friend of My Friends is Not My Friend: The United States, US Allies, and Russia in the Middle East
• 20 September 2019: Maximizing US Assistance: Stabilization Assistance Review & Great Power Competition
• 23 October 2019: Mr. Vern Liebl (Center for Advanced Operational Culture (CAOCL)) – The Cognitive Dimension of Violent Extremist Organizations (VEOs)– Al Qaeda, Islamic State, and Hezbollah
• 12 November 2019: William Braniff (National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) at the University of Maryland); Dr. Daveed Gartenstein-Ross (Valens Global); Dr. Lawrence Kuznar (NSI, Inc.); and Dr. Gina Ligon (University of Nebraska at Omaha) – ISIS: Past, Present, and Possible Futures Panel Discussion
• 13 November 2019: Dr. Tamar Mitts (Columbia University) – From Isolation to Radicalization: Anti-Muslim Hostility and Support for ISIS in the West
• 9 December 2019: Dr. Noémie Bouhana (University College London Department of Security and Crime Science); Prof. Neil Ferguson (Liverpool Hope University); Dr. Joel Busher (Coventry University); Dr. Christopher McDowell (City, University of London) – UK Perspectives on Deradicalization Panel Discussion
• 11 December 2019: Dr. Fathali Moghaddam (Georgetown University) – Mutual Radicalization: How Groups and Nations Drive Each Other to Extremes
• 20 December 2019: Dr. Larry Kuznar (NSI) – The Drivers of Grievance and Unrest in the World’s Populations: Understanding Instability, Terrorism & Migration
• 9 January 2020: Dr. Mia Bloom (Georgia State University) – Are They “Ticking Time Bombs?” Children and Terrorism
• 4 March 2020: Dr. Jonathan Wilkenfeld (University of Maryland); Dr. Claudio Cioffi-Revilla (George Mason University); LTC Tom Pike (National Intelligence University); Dr. Sean Lawson. (University of Utah); Dr. Larry Kuznar (NSI, Inc.) – Black Swans and Gray Rhinos in the CENTCOM AOR: Vigilance Against the Unsuspected and Keeping Our Eyes on the Prize
• 10 March 2020: Dr. Skye Cooley (Oklahoma State University); Nicole (Peterson) Omundson (NSI, Inc.); Dr. Nicholas Wright (Intelligent Biology); Dr. Sabrina (Pagano) Polansky (NSI, Inc.); Dr. Karl Kaltenthaler (University of Akron); Dr. Lawrence Kuznar (NSI, Inc.); Howard Lee (US Army TRADOC) – SMA CENTCOM Panel Discussion on Radicalization (Part I)
• 17 March 2020: Dr. David Dorondo (Western Carolina University); George Popp (NSI, Inc.); Thomas Rieger (NSI, Inc.); Dr. Peter Suedfeld (University of British Columbia) – SMA CENTCOM Panel Discussion on Radicalization (Part II)
• 27 March 2020: Dr. Gary Ackerman (University at Albany); Doug Clifford (University at Albany); Dr. David Dorondo (Western Carolina University); Dr. Maorong Jiang (Creighton University); Dr. Larry Kuznar (NSI, Inc.) – SMA CENTCOM Panel Discussion- Black Swan Scenarios
• 31 March 2020: Weston Aviles (NSI); Dr. Marco Ehrl (Kutztown University); Dr. Robert Hinck (Monmouth College); Howard Lee (US Army TRADOC); Dr. Sabrina Polansky (Pagano) (NSI) – SMA CENTCOM Panel Discussion—The Gulf and Egypt