India Country Report- An NSI Aggrieved Populations Analysis

Author | Editor: Aviles, W. (NSI, Inc.)

Executive Summary

Data

Three datasets on wealth and status distribution in India were analyzed: 2016 World Bank quintile and decile estimates of income, and 2015-2016 USAID DHS (Demographic Health Survey) data on wealth factor score and agricultural land ownership.

Results

India is moderately risk acceptant across all datasets.

Significance for Risk Taking and Stability

Despite the risk-acceptant nature of India’s population, it is a stable democratic country that seeks to forge an independent path to become an emerging global power. However, given this latent risk- acceptant propensity and the soaring levels of economic inequality, some sort of catalyst has the potential to deteriorate national unity along a multitude of societal divisions.

Implications for US Interests

India is a vital strategic partner not only in South Asia but globally, and increasingly more so in the age of great power competition. Encouraging and maintaining India’s political stability and democratic institutions is important in buffering against Chinese influence, and the decay of national socio-political unity has to potential to deteriorate US-Indian relations.

Implications for China’s Interests

China is poised to take advantage of any political instability and unrest inspired by India’s social cleavages and inequality. However, this is only true to the extent that it will distract New Delhi from competing with China.

Implications for Russia’s Interests

Russia is far more ambivalent to India than the US or China and seeks to maintain their security/energy cooperation with New Delhi while simultaneously diminishing US hegemony in the region.

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