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SMA Publications (Tagged: Asia)

SMA Publication

The Shape of the Future Operating Environment: How Our Adversaries Have Learned to Stop Worrying and Ignore the Bomb

The report is organized around these three overarching concepts – state interest, perceived threats and opportunities, and international activities. The introduction details a theoretical background for each, and explains how, together, they offer a general framework for understanding the choices and behaviors of states in the international system. The concepts implicit in these two questions are complex and interdependent – requiring bounding choices. To stay within the scope of this project while providing a comprehensive mapping of the problem space, we have chosen to provide a high-level overview and comparison of all four states. For readers seeking a deeper dive into specific aspects of these questions for individual states, the reference section at the end of the report includes links to other SMA work with this level of detail. In this report we focus on how understanding these concepts provides a framework for expanding our understanding of deterrence strategy to account for the multi-domain as well as multi-actor nature of contemporary deterrence.
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

Discourse Indicators of Gray Zone: Crimea

The increasing use of emotive themes and rhetorical devices (that amplify a message’s emotional effect) provide indicators of gray zone activities in speeches made by Eurasian regional leaders prior to and during the annexation of Crimea. Putin’s leading indicators, those of Crimean leaders and the Russian-supported President of Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych, are presented separately.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Deterrence Among Three to Twelve Nuclear Powers: Fundamental Instability and Mitigation Strategy

The fundamental instability of bilateral nuclear deterrence (Albert Wohlstetter’s “delicate balance of terror”) is mitigated, in part, by each adversary deploying and maintaining weapons systems that are capable of guaranteeing a second-strike after an adversary has launched a first-strike. Additionally, bilateral arms control measures (norms, treaties, protocols, institutions) provide additional stability. The problem with multicountry nuclear deterrence is that there are no levels of armaments that can support stable deterrence relations among three or more adversaries; except in cases when adversaries coalesce into two alliances, in which case the system reduces to bilateral nuclear deterrence. This paper approaches this problem through formal methods and conceptualizes a solution involving an ensemble of military and politico-diplomatic strategies which, when operating as an enhanced international security regime, can mitigate the fundamental instability of the current multicountry nuclear deterrence system.
Year Published:
2024
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SMA Publication

Conflict and Convergence in the Asia-Pacific Region

USPACOM requested that the Strategic Multi-layer Assessment (SMA) team conduct an “Examination of future political, security, societal, and economic trends to identify where US interests are in cooperation or conflict with Chinese and other interests particularly in the East China Sea.” More specifically, USPACOM requested an examination of future political, security, societal, and economic trends; identification of where US strategic interests are in cooperation or conflict with Chinese and other interests, particularly in the East China Sea; and suggestions as to how USPACOM might best leverage opportunities when dealing with China in a “global context.” The project request also included a series of questions (see Appendix A) that, taken together represent two broad concerns.
Year Published:
2015
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SMA Publication

Conflict and Convergence in the Asia-Pacific Region

In pregNSI participated in a large effort focused on identifying areas of strategic risk and opportunity in the Asia-Pacific region over the next two decades. A rising China resides within a very dynamic Asia-Pacific region. A long list of Chinese influence and investment activities abroad together with an active military enhancement program indicate that China is positioning itself to pursue national security interests well beyond the Pacific Rim. As Chinese interests and policy objectives broaden to farther reaches of the globe there is greater likelihood that they will run up against key US international interests. The intersection of US and Chinese interests could represent either a source of conflict or opportunity for cooperation. The main question that US policy makers and planners must consider carefully is: Where and which Chinese interests are most likely to conflict with US global interests, and where may there be opportunities for cooperation? The current problem this project addressed is uncertainty about the likely trajectory of increasingly global Chinese national interests abroad and how these relate to key US interests. The primary objective was to provide decision-makers the tools to make better sense of the non-linear dynamics and feedback mechanisms at play in the complex environment in which they, and their competitors, operate in the Asia-Pacific region, and broaden the horizon of strategic thinking and inform planning.
Year Published:
2015
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SMA Publication

Chinese Strategic Intentions: A Deep Dive into China’s Worldwide Activities

This white paper was prepared as part of the Strategic Multilayer Assessment, entitled The Future of Global Competition and Conflict. Twenty-seven experts contributed to this white paper, providing wide-ranging assessments of China’s domestic and international activities in order to assess the future of China and the challenges that these activities may present to US interests. This white paper is divided into five sections and twenty-four chapters. While this summary presents some of the white paper’s high-level findings, the summary alone cannot fully convey the fine detail of the experts’ individual contributions, which are worth reading in their entirety.
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

China’s Expansion into South Asia, Middle East and Africa

Perhaps unsurprisingly, all the contributors to this question devoted attention to the outsized role economics—and especially the quest for natural resources—plays in the Peoples Republic of China’s (PRC) relationships in the MENA region. In general, the consequentiality of this factor trends negative when assessed through the lenses of either a) US policy goals or b) global liberal economic norms. Chow, for example, characterizes the failure of the US to more aggressively push back on manipulative PRC trade practices as “carelessness” and “empty rhetoric.” He also sees a direct line between the perceived cave-in on Washington’s part and Beijing feeling empowered to seize the initiative in other areas detrimental to US interest, such as increased militarization and aggressive behavior in disputed territorial areas.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Global Power Competition

As Russia continues to challenge United States’ power and influence around the world, its activities in CENTCOM’s area of responsibility (AOR) represent a useful lens with which to view this conflict. In Iraq and Syria, both Russia and the United States (and its Coalition) have been drawn into this layered conflict to challenge or defend the status quo with varying degrees of success and impact. While experts question whether Russia can challenge the United States globally, it can likely operate on the margins of United States interests, with a series of surgical and lower-level policy decisions. To that point, some respondents, including Edward Chow of the Center for Strategic and International Studies and Vern Liebl of the Center for Advanced Operational Culture Learning at Marine Corps University, argue that they do not consider Russia a true peer and challenger of US global influence. Instead of global dominance, Russia is seeking to “marginalize US power and influence in regions they deem important to their interests” (Chow). Contributors agreed, though, that Russia is well positioned to capitalize on opportunities for growth and influence in the Middle East. This report looks at Russia’s interests, actions, and likelihood of success in challenging US global influence through these conflicts.
Year Published:
2018
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SMA Publication

Strategic Risk in the Space Domain

This report summarizes the input of 15 insightful responses contributed by space experts from National Security Space, industry, academia, government, think tanks, and space law and policy communities. This input includes expert contributions from US voices as well as non-US voices from Australia, India, Italy, and the UK. While this summary response presents an overview of key subject matter expert contributor insights, the summary alone cannot fully convey the fine detail of the contributor inputs provided, each of which is worth reading in its entirety.
Year Published:
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SMA Publication

Strategic Implications of PRC’s Base in Djibouti

There are a number of legitimate reasons that account for China’s decision to break with decades of tradition when it established its first foreign military base in Djibouti in 2009, according to Dr. John Garver, Professor Emeritus at the China Research Center at Georgia Institute of Technology. First, China has a strong economic interest in protecting vital shipping lanes that pass through the nearby Gulf of Aden (Garver, Haddad-Fonda, Payne). Notably, China expanded its maritime security role in the northwest Indian Ocean during the 2008-9 financial crisis in North America and Europe—a time when China’s economic growth seemed “unstoppable” (Garver).
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Multi-Step Approach Closing DOD's Cognitive Capability Gap

The Strategic Multi-Layer Assessment (SMA) team conducted a year-long project for USSOCOM on the growing prevalence of Competition Short of Armed Conflict (CSAC), or use of “Gray Zone” tactics by US adversaries. Key findings from the study include first, the immediate need to incorporate the “human / cognitive domain” into military planning to avoid the strategic surprise that gray zone tactics intend. Second, the study highlighted the current deficit in the joint force of operationally-applicable human / cognitive domain information and expertise. During its final project review, the study’s Senior Review Group (SRG) noted that “…the changing nature of conflict means that the US Department of Defense (DOD) needs to start changing the way it thinks as a whole, and the results of this SMA effort can play a valuable role” in broadening our understanding of the strategic and operational environment to incorporate the human/cognitive aspects of military operations. Reflecting on the deficit in US capabilities in the cognitive environment the SRG asked: “Who is going to craft the appropriate messages? Who is going to provide the necessary tools? Who is going to use these tools? These are questions that we need to answer.”
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Influence in an Age of Rising Connectedness

A strong argument can be made that we are moving toward a pluralized, multipolar world, in which military and economic sources of power are widely distributed. Technologies (e.g., the Internet and rapid means of mass migration) are making nation states increasingly more porous, and a resurgence of nationalism and other forms of ethnic or religious identity politics has solidified some states and weakened others. Given these properties of human development, the question remains as to how nations and societies position themselves to ride these revolutionary changes with some degree of confidence. The continuance of these factors may change the way that the US, its partners, and its adversaries consider and prioritize influence, both within the state and across interstate borders. The DOD is evolving in ways that demand a more synergistic approach than we have traditionally taken across the human and technical dimensions. To date, military operations have characteristically focused on compelling adversaries through the threat or application of force to achieve victory (i.e. “control”). Changing environmental factors, increased activism by non-state actors, technology, and recent lessons learned suggest that the DOD will be challenged to adopt revised, if not entirely new approaches, to affect and direct the outcomes of military operations. Toward such ends, the DOD will need to focus upon the factors and forces that exert the necessary influence to produce desired behavioral outcomes across complex and intermeshed human and technical systems.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

GCC Nations: Impediments to Cooperation

At the time of the writing of this executive summary, the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) has experienced a diplomatic crisis with three GCC member states (Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain) cutting diplomatic ties with Qatar (another GCC member state) and remaining GCC members (Kuwait and Oman) attempting to mediate. This event begs the discussion of factors and dynamics that obstruct or cripple cohesion among GCC nations and possible solutions to overcome such obstacles. A thorough understanding of the threats facing the GCC and more specifically, their limitations in responding to them, are crucial to attaining a vigorous and holistic comprehension of the Gulf region.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Int'l Norms Transgressions Magnify Gray Zone Challenges

The current international system presents multiple potential challenges to US interests. In recent years, state actors, especially but not limited to Russia and China, have taken actions that disrupt regional stability and potentially threaten US interests (Bragg, 2016). Many of these challenges are neither “traditional” military actions nor “normal” competition, but rather fall into a class of actions we have come to call “gray” (Votel, 2015). Here we define the concept as: “the purposeful use of single or multiple instruments of power to achieve security objectives by way of activities that are typically ambiguous or cloud attribution, and exceed the threshold of ordinary competition, yet intentionally fall below the level of [proportional response and] large-scale direct military conflict, and threaten the interests of other actors by challenging, undermining, or violating international customs, norms, or laws.” (Popp and Canna, 2016).
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

US-DiGIA: USG Discoverable Information Terrain

The United States currently faces a complex and dynamic security environment. States are no longer the only critical actors in the international arena; rather, a diverse range of non-state entities also has the potential to affect US interests and security—for good or bad. Economic influence, information control and propaganda, political influence, and social discontent can be and are being utilized by state and non-state actors alike to achieve their goals, in many cases bypassing the need for direct military action. In response, the US military is challenged to accomplish more, across a greater variety of domains, while facing a constrained budget environment. There are two central implications of this: first, many of the most intractable security problems the US faces require a whole of government approach. Second, in a complex and evolving international environment characterized by new and often ambiguous threats, information itself is a critical asset.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

10th Annual SMA Conference - From Control to Influence

The Strategic Multi-Layer Assessment (SMA) office hosted the 10th Annual SMA Conference on 25-26 April 2017 at Joint Base Andrews. This year’s conference, formally titled “From Control to Influence? A View of—and Vision for—the Future,” brought together a multidisciplinary group of participants to consider how the US and its allies can more effectively counter the influence that recently re-emerging, capable states (such as China and Russia) and non-state actors (such as ISIS) exert on their neighbors and/or third parties through multiple elements of power.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Geopolitical Visions In Chinese Media

This study analyzed Chinese web media in an effort to uncover key frames and cultural scripts that are likely to shape potential geopolitical relationships in Asia. The team provided an overview of Chinese media and developed individual reports on cultural scripts in media coverage of three key issues: a) China’s relationships with its regional neighbors, b) the geopolitical dimensions of the “China Dream” (中国梦), and c) Chinese discourse around the “New Style Great Power Relations” (新型大国关系). Data was collected from May to October 2014. Over 2,200 media articles were analyzed from 25 different Chinese media sources controlled for ownership, political slant, official versus, and popular media outlets.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Discussion with NPS Experts - May 2017

On 11 May 2017, NPS convened a panel session and discuss areas related to the 4th round of CENTCOM Reach Back Cell Questions. The speakers are listed below, and their biographies are available in Appendix A.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Panel Discussion on the Gray Zone

At the request of the Commander, United States Special Operations Command (USSOCOM), the Strategic Multi-Layer Assessment (SMA) team initiated an effort, titled Gray Zone Conflicts-Challenges and Opportunities-A Multi-Agency Deep Dive Assessment, focused on assessing gray zone conflict. The overall objective of this SMA gray zone effort is to determine how the United States Government (USG) can identify, diagnose, and assess indirect strategies, as well as develop response options against, associated types of gray zone conflicts.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Strategic Multi-layer Assessment Report Card

Strategic Multi-Layer Assessment (SMA) provides planning support to Commands. SMA projects focus on complex operational imperatives requiring multi-agency, multi- disciplinary solutions that are NOT within core Service/Agency competency. SMA solutions and participants are sought across USG and beyond. SMA is accepted and synchronized by Joint Staff (JS/J-39) and executed by ASD(R&E)/EC&P/RRTO. SMA efforts are Coalition based and address mission areas spanning Counter-Terrorism; Counter-Insurgency; Countering Proliferation of WMD (State and non-State); Individual, State, and National-level Deterrence Assessment; and Strategic Global and Regional Assessments.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Part 4 Actor Interests and Motivations

This is Part 4 of a 9 part series of SMA Reach back responses to questions posed by USCENTCOM. Each report contains responses to multiple questions grouped by theme. At the request of United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), the Joint Staff, jointly with other elements in the JS, Services, and U.S. Government (USG) Agencies, has established a SMA virtual reach-back cell. This initiative, based on the SMA global network of scholars and area experts, is providing USCENTCOM with population based and regional expertise in support of ongoing operations in the Iraq/Syria region.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Part 3 Encourage Regional Stability

This is Part 3 of a 9 part series of SMA Reach back responses to questions posed by USCENTCOM. Each report contains responses to multiple questions grouped by theme. At the request of United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), the Joint Staff, jointly with other elements in the JS, Services, and U.S. Government (USG) Agencies, has established a SMA virtual reach-back cell. This initiative, based on the SMA global network of scholars and area experts, is providing USCENTCOM with population based and regional expertise in support of ongoing operations in the Iraq/Syria region.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Discourse Indicators of Gray Zone: South China Sea

The increasing use of emotive themes and rhetorical devices (that amplify a message’s emotional effect) provide indicators of gray zone activities in speeches made by Chinese, Philippine, and Vietnamese government officials during peak times of conflict in the South China Sea from 2002 to 2016. The leading indicators and warnings for the Chinese, Philippine, and Vietnamese governments are presented separately, as well as findings regarding how their use of language reflects predominant national concerns.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Discourse Indicators of Gray Zone: Estonia

The increasing use of emotive themes and rhetorical devices (that amplify a message’s emotional effect) provide indicators of gray zone activities in speeches made by Eurasian regional leaders and has the potential to provide leading indicators and reveal key issues and concerns.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Regional Interests Analysis

Question (S2): In light of their divergent goals and interests, what are the necessary factors that would permit the U.S.-led Coalition, regional stakeholders (including Israel, Russia, and Iran), or jihadist groups to achieve their aims in Iraq? Where do disparate groups’ interests align and where do they diverge? What can the U.S. coalition do to deny adversaries the ability to achieve their goals?
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Putin's Information Warfare in Ukraine

Russia has been using an advanced form of hybrid warfare in Ukraine since early 2014 that relies heavily on an element of information warfare that the Russians call “reflexive control.” Reflexive control causes a stronger adversary voluntarily to choose the actions most advantageous to Russian objectives by shaping the adversary’s perceptions of the situation decisively. Moscow has used this technique skillfully to persuade the U.S. and its European allies to remain largely passive in the face of Russia’s efforts to disrupt and dismantle Ukraine through military and non-military means. The West must become alert to the use of reflexive control techniques and find ways to counter them if it is to succeed in an era of hybrid war.
Year Published:
2015
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SMA Publication

Understand and Respond to Contemporary Russia

More than two years after Russia’s annexation of Crimea, the West continues coming to terms with the implications of this event. As discussed by the project’s the first report, the concept of ‘hybrid warfare’ quickly established itself, because it seemed to be particularly useful to explain recent changes in Russian defence and foreign policy. The report highlighted that the concept was indeed valuable in drawing the attention of policymakers to some new security challenges. At the same time, the report cautioned that beyond this initial usefulness, the concept of ‘hybrid warfare’ as an explanation for almost every Russian policy move is likely to do more harm than good to our understanding of developments in Russia, as well as to the process of identifying and implementing realistic responses.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

The Conflict in the Donbas between Gray and Black

The current case study analyzes the presence and importance of Gray Zone conflict dynamics and the employment of various instruments of power during the still ongoing conflict in Eastern Ukraine (Donbas) since its beginning in 2014. More specifically, it studies the use of various instruments of power across a number of conflict dyads, present in the conflict. The case study’s findings can better inform practitioners and analysts about the presence, content, and effectiveness of utilizing different instruments of power in the Gray Zone.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Russian Interests in Syria

This paper found that Russia¹s strategic interests in the Middle East are fairly stable. What could change is how Russia prioritizes its interests in the wake of the US election and change in administration. Indicators of change might include troop movement or alteration in leader discourse.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

ViTTa Assessment and Analysis of the Gray Zone

Within United States government (USG) and Department of Defense (DoD) spheres, the gray zone is a relatively new terminology and phenomena of focus for characterizing the changing nature of competition, conflict, and warfare between actors in the evolving international system of today. Accordingly, in January 2016, General Joseph Votel (US Army) requested that the Strategic Multi-Layer Assessment (SMA) team conduct a study of the gray zone. The SMA team was asked to assess how the USG can diagnose, identify, and assess indirect strategies, and develop response options against associated types of gray zone challenges. More specifically, the request emphasized that if the USG is to respond effectively to the threats and opportunities presented in the increasingly gray security environment, it requires a much more detailed map of the gray zone than it currently possesses.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Demystifying the Gray Zone: Colombia, Libya, Ukraine

The author of this report is Barnett S. Koven, Senior Researcher at the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START). Questions about this report should be directed to Barnett S. Koven at bkoven@start.umd.edu.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Turkish Army Syrian Intervention

There is general consensus among the expert contributors that the strategic and operational implications of the Turkish incursion are minimal: each sees the incursion as consistent with previous Turkish policy and long-standing interests. Turkey’s activities should be viewed through the lens of its core strategic interest in removing the threat of Kurdish separatism, which at present has been exacerbated by renewed Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK) insurgency inside Turkey, its influence in northern Iraq, and the expansion of Kurdish territories in Syria more generally. As one commented, Turkey will prioritize itself. This means preventing the strengthening of Kurds at all costs (including indirect support to those fighting them). It also means patrolling borders, harsh treatment of those who try to get through and/or corrupt practices such as involvement in smuggling. One implication of note however is the increased risk of escalation between Turkey and Russia and Turkey and the US-backed Peoples Protection Units (YPG) that the incursion poses.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Part IV: Results of 5 of 8 Conflicts in Iraqi-Syria

This briefing is the final part of a four-part study exploring the dynamics of the central Middle East conflict system. Part II describes the system and why it is critical to assess U.S. security interests and activities in the context of the entire system rather than just the conflicts (e.g., defeat of ISIL) in which the U.S. is most interested. Part II describes the analytic approach used to assess regional dynamics and regional futures based on the alignments and conflicts among three critical drivers: actor interests, resources and resolves. Part III illustrates the analytic process applied to 20-plus actor over five of the eight conflicts. Part IV presents the results of the interest, resolve, capability assessment.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Conflict and Convergence in Eurasia (ExecSum)

This project identified threats and opportunities in Eurasia (with particular emphasis on USEUCOM area of responsibility (AOR) countries). This report provides an overview of the regional issues identified by the US, Russia, NATO, and the EU in policy statements, speeches, and the media, and how they intersect with actor interests. It then presents the major themes arising from the integration of the team findings in response to USEUCOM’s questions, in particular the importance of understanding Russia’s worldview, and the subsequent recommendations for reducing conflict and increasing the probability of cooperation with Russia.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Conflict and Convergence in Eurasia (Integration)

Evaluating strategic risk in the Eurasia region over the next two to three decades is a complex challenge that is vital for USEUCOM planning and mission success. The depth of our understanding of the diverse set of political, economic, and social actors in the region will determine how effectively we respond to emerging opportunities and threats to US interests. A better understanding of Russia’s priorities and interests, and their implications, both regionally and globally, will help planners and policy makers both anticipate and respond to future developments.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Thematic Analysis of Russian and NATO Speeches

This study addresses key questions posed in the SMA EUCOM project by using thematic analysis of speeches from leaders of state and non-state polities in Eastern Europe, Russia, and the Caucasus. The importance of an issue is measured by the density (mentions/words in speech) with which it is mentioned and the use of associated emotive language.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Geopolitical Visions in Russian Media

This study sought to examine future political, security, societal and economic trends to identify where U.S. interests are in cooperation or conflict with Russian interests, and in particular, identify leverage points when dealing with Russia in a global context.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Eurasia Strategic Risk and Future Trends

The GMU Eurasia Strategic Risk project examined future political, security, societal and economic trends as they apply to the decision calculus of key Eurasian regional actors. Timed Influence Net (TIN) models were used to identify potential sources of strategic risk for the United States by focusing on actions and behaviors that would be considered adverse by the United States, NATO, and other U.S. partner nations. The goal was to provide planners with a tool that can be used to inform their discussions with military and non-military staffs from both the United States and its partners on potential Eurasia strategies. Among the key observations: When the adverse behaviors the United States seeks to influence are not related to a perceived existential threat to a NATO member, classical deterrence cost-benefit calculations lose importance. However, Russia’s perceived cost-benefit calculations of not acting, and its perception of the decision calculus of the United States and its partners remain important considerations. For this reason, the study concludes that NATO’s Article V will continue to serve as an effective deterrent to actions which the Alliance believes constitute an existential threat to a member country, but is less likely to deter attacks that do not jeopardize a member state’s existence because the political cost of restraint for Russia outweighs the potential cost of a likely NATO response.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

9th Annual SMA Conference - No War/No Peace...

Since the end of the Cold War and with the advent of the new century, new geopolitical realities have emerged that have made classical wars with national military forces pitted against each other far less likely. What we are witnessing are new categories of conflict that cannot be considered full1scale wars in the classical sense but cannot be described as “peace” either. Small1scale conflicts are complemented with intense engagement in the Information and other Spheres. These will almost certainly have great implications in the legal domains as well new forms of alliances. Multiple factors have come into play for these trends to emerge. This is a story of change versus continuity, and the conference focused on what has changed since the collapse of the USSR. As such, there are structural and intellectual challenges that prevent the United States Government (USG) from adapting and thriving is this new environment.
Year Published:
2015
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SMA Publication

Russian Opportunities and Challenges in the Arctic

The receding of the Arctic ice presents the Russian Federation with complex opportunities and challenges, both domestic and international. Russia is investing heavily in developing the infrastructure on its Arctic coastline to support both destination shipping in the Arctic and transit shipping through the Northern Sea Route (NSR) between the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. The estimated resources in the Russian Arctic Region in energy and minerals are very large but their extraction requires major long term investments and such investments are high risk ones because of harsh weather and the insufficiency of the existing infrastructure; some of the existing infrastructure is degrading because of the thawing of the permafrost. Russia’s effort to modernize its Armed Forces has included the creation of the Arctic Joint Strategic Command that includes the Northern Fleet. Old bases are being re‐opened and new bases are created in the Arctic region. These developments in the Arctic show clearly that the Far North is expected to have a major role in the future of Russia not only for economic reasons but also as a common theme, a common narrative that resonates with the Russian people. It will be unwise to interpret all Russian actions in the Arctic as being statements to the West or to the East. It will be helpful if they are also interpreted in terms of internal domestic (and nationalistic) considerations.
Year Published:
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SMA Publication

A New Info Paradigm? From Genes to ‘Big Data’

We live in an age characterized by the reshaping of society through the presence of information and networks. The proliferation of information technologies from the micro and instantaneous to the insights hidden in “big data” has generated a range of new issues with implications for global transformation and political power shifts, patterns of conflict and warfare, and potential opportunities for enhancing global stability. The time is right for a thorough consideration of the implications of this “age” on US national security issues. How can we best understand the near-term and long-term consequences of these changes? What adaptations to our current intellectual frameworks, intelligence processes, organizational structures, command and control practices and planning approaches may be necessary? In short, how can the United States Government (USG) and its allies recognize the risks as well as the opportunities for enhanced global security presented by fuller realization of the “information age”?
Year Published:
2014
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SMA Publication

Understanding Megacities with the ISR Paradigm

Given the challenges of declining DOD budgets while improving our ability to monitor megacity populations, this white describe many of the issues facing the DOD for phase zero operations and collecting theinformation necessary should conflicts escalate.
Year Published:
2014
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SMA Publication

Megacities: Socio-cultural Analysis Dhaka, Bangladesh

The Strategic-Multilayer Assessment (SMA) Megacity Reconnaissance, Surveillance, and Intelligence (M- RSI) project seeks to aid United States Pacific Command (USPACOM) in understanding socio-cultural dynamics within megacities. For this portion of the project, USPACOM socio-cultural analysis (SCA) planning frameworks (“the SCA approach”) were used to guide remote data collection for a proto-type assessment of the risk of humanitarian crisis in Dhaka, Bangladesh. The SCA approach consists of five distinct, yet related frameworks1 that are designed to provide planners with a quick triage tool to assess risk, as well as provide a guide for analysts conducting longer-term assessments. The five frameworks are structured to reflect USPACOM’s mission objectives and planning process. Given this was a proof of concept effort, analysts were asked to apply two of the five SCA frameworks—the SCA Humanitarian Crisis (HC) Framework and the Intra-state Violence (IV) Framework—to Dhaka, Bangladesh.
Year Published:
2015
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SMA Publication

Implications and Lessons Learned for Megacities

Our analysis of Dhaka shows how common problems of governance (lack of capacity, unclear lines of authority) and provision of services are magnified in both scale and impact in the context of megacities.
Year Published:
2014
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SMA Publication

Pathway Indicators Analysis of Pakistan

This report explores the potential pathways associated with two hypothetical futures for the nation of Pakistan–Fragmentation and Muddling through. We started with theoretical propositions about the nature of, and points along, the pathways, tested these against historical cases, refined our characterizations of the paths, and then applied these to look at Pakistan from today forward.
Year Published:
2013
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SMA Publication

7th Annual SMA Conference - What Now, What Next?

The 7th Annual Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) Conference was held at Joint Base Andrews from 13-14 November 2013. The conference was focused on global megatrends and their implications in all spheres of national security. It is no exaggeration to state that the world today is a very different place than it was barely 12 years ago when the war against al Qaida and its affiliates began. As we move forward, continuing advances in various spheres such as the sociotechnical world will present both challenges and opportunities. The conference examined these and related themes and highlighted new insights from the social and neurosciences.
Year Published:
2013
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SMA Publication

Pak-StaM Stability Model Analysis of Pakistan

This report addresses a number of key questions regarding the factors that underpin stability and instability in Pakistan. In particular: Which are the factors that most significantly contribute to governing, economic, and social stability in Pakistan? Are there factors commonly associated with stability that have no effect or have divergent effects on stability in Pakistan? What are the primary effect dependencies among factors? Is the effect of specific factors likely to change with time?
Year Published:
2012
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SMA Publication

Protecting Homeland from Int'l & Domestic Terrorism

It would be comforting to be able to find some constants, some footholds in our understanding of terrorism. It is, in fact, the element of mystery as to what drives people to collective violence that makes us uncomfortable -- that fills us with terror. Researchers, policy makers, those who must combat terrorism, and the public hope for some simple formula for radicalization, a program or set of programs that will prevent groups of people from deliberately targeting other people in order to meet their needs (political, economic, social, etc). There is no magic formula within this paper collection, but there are a variety of perspectives that, either in isolation or when integrated, provide new ways to think about terrorism and potentially to inform decisions that will abate this global phenomenon, not exacerbate it.
Year Published:
2010
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SMA Publication

Perspectives on Political and Social Regional Stability Impacted by Global Crises – A Social Science Context

Cooperative security, stability operations and irregular warfare missions require a better understanding of the complex operational environment, notably through rich contextual understanding of the factors affecting stability. Further assessment, policy, and planning need to consider factors associated with institutional performance (community organizations, government ministries, legal structures, etc.) based on how societies emerge, develop, and function, as well as attributes that provide resiliency and flexibility.
Year Published:
2010
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SMA Publication

PAKAF Rich Contextual Understanding of COIN

The Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) program provides planning support to COCOMs and warfighters. The program coordinates with the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, and STRATCOM to support global mission analysis and to develop new analytic capabilities in support of specific tasking. These analytic capabilities seek to orient the commander to a decision for action. SMA develops multi-disciplined, multi-organizational teams for specific projects. It emphasizes the integration of human, social, cultural, behavioral, and physical sciences factors through participation of sociologists, anthropologists, economists, and physicist/engineers as well as universities, non-governmental organizations, and various interagency partners. SMA efforts produce focused, multi-disciplined strategic and technical assessments as well as documentation, training and education in the application of newly developed analytic tools.</p>,
Year Published:
2010
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SMA Publication

Afghan Cooperation with ISAF Development Projects

This project addresses two major interrelated objectives. The first objective is a substantive one: we are interested in better understanding why Afghan participation in ISAF and ISAF-sponsored initiatives is low, even when participation offers the opportunity for significant near-term benefits. We contend that the ISAF mission in Afghanistan presents a clear example of a shadow of the future decision problem for the Afghan people. Specifically, that low levels of Afghan participation result from the knowledge that ISAF presence is finite and that, after ISAF withdraws, insurgents will punish those who cooperated effectively negating the value of any benefits gained from that cooperation. This situation presents a serious policy challenge for ISAF, and a better understanding of the dynamics and factors that affect Afghans collaboration with ISAF’s local initiatives will help develop policies that can mitigate the current situation.
Year Published:
2010
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SMA Publication

Subjective Decision Analysis: Egypt, Iran, Iraq, ...

The SMA Strategic Deterrence effort is a methodological study to evaluate the appropriateness and utility of modeling and wargaming to support the analytic requirements of the Deterrence Operations Joint Operating Concept (DO JOC). The objective of the study is to determine which aspects of deterrence operations and planning can be appropriately analyzed through gaming, and which aspects can be appropriately analyzed through different forms of modeling. The project also examines the synthesis of deterrence gaming and modeling, how the results of gaming can inform deterrence modeling, and how modeling can shape deterrence gaming.
Year Published:
2009
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SMA Publication

Afghanistan Helmand Province Deep Dive

The objective of Helmand Deep Dive Development and Governance Workshop was to examine academic works and newly generated data and models and to develop guidelines and recommendations for low-cost development project implementation. The Helmand Deep Dive effort focused on water, governance, reconstruction, and job creation.
Year Published:
2009
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SMA Publication

ViTTa Analysis of Eurasia in the Next 5-25 Years

From July through November 2015, NSI employed its Virtual Think Tank (ViTTa) methodology to systematically interview 26 subject matter experts in support of a Strategic Multilayer Assessment effort to research and identify drivers of conflict and cooperation in Eurasia in the next 5-25 years. Representatives from the United States European Command (EUCOM) provided 37 questions to guide the interview effort (see Appendix A). This report summarizes SME knowledge and insights on these questions—grouped into nine chapters.
Year Published:
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SMA Publication

Behavior Changes in Pakistan

The experts who contributed to this Quick Look agree on an essential point: Pakistan’s beliefs regarding the threat posed by India are so well-entrenched that they not only serve as the foundation for Pakistan’s foreign policy and security behavior, but represent a substantial barrier to changing it behavior. Christine Fair a Pakistan scholar from Georgetown University is specific as to the target of any influence efforts – difficult as they may be: “the object of influence is not ‘Pakistan;’ rather the Pakistan army’ and so security behavior change if possible requires change in the Army’s cost-benefit calculus. The essential components of Pakistan’s security beliefs are first that India is an existential threat to the state; and second that Pakistan is at a tremendous military and economic disadvantage to its stronger neighbor.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Vladimir Putin’s Worldview and Perspectives on Space

A corpus of Vladimir Putin’s speeches was drawn from his official Kremlin website. The corpus was examined using semi-automated discourse analysis to gauge Putin’s concerns with space and how these are articulated with general political and cultural issues. The primary findings from the discourse are presented as Putin’s perspectives and worldview with respect to the space domain and general themes.
Year Published:
2018
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SMA Publication

Kim Jong Un's Worldview and Perspectives on Space

A collection of Kim Jong Un’s speeches from 2012 to 2017, translated and published online by the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) were examined using semi-automated discourse analysis to gauge Kim Jong Un’s concerns in the space domain and how these concerns are articulated with general political and cultural themes. The primary findings from the discourse are presented as the DPRK’s (i.e., Kim Jong Un’s) perspectives and worldview with respect to the space domain and general themes.
Year Published:
2018
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SMA Publication

Chinese Worldview and Perspectives on Space

Corpora from three sources were examined using semi-automated discourse analysis to gauge the Chinese government’s concerns in the space domain and how these interests are articulated with general political and cultural issues. The sources were releases from the Chinese MOFA (Ministry of Foreign Affairs) (2011 – 2017), stories reported by CPC (Communist Party of China) News (2013 – 2014), and two months of speeches by Chinese president Xi Jinping (2014). The primary findings from the discourse are presented as Chinese perspectives and worldview with respect to the space domain and general themes.
Year Published:
2018
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SMA Publication

Allocation of Commercial Space Industry Components

Thirty-four subject matter expert (SME) contributors, the majority from the commercial space industry, responded to this question. They provided details on the commercial space activities of 17 countries and the European Space Agency (ESA). As discussed in detail in other ViTTa reports,4 it is important to recognize that the division between public and private organizations and activities is rarely clear-cut. Furthermore, as contributors have noted in their responses both to this question5 and others,6 much of the space activity outside the US is concentrated on dual-use technologies and applications. For these reasons, we define the “commercial space industry” as capabilities and activities undertaken for commercial purposes, rather than capabilities and activities undertaken by a purely commercial space actor.
Year Published:
2018
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SMA Publication

International Collaboration in U.S. Integrated Deterrence: A Partner Perspective

This non-paper, prepared at the Swedish Defence University (SEDU), investigates the dynamics of deterrence in cooperation with the U.S.1 It is crafted for the SMA audience, providing preliminary insights into collaborative efforts within ID and emphasizing the value of partner contributions.
Year Published:
2024
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SMA Publication

CONCESSIONS TO THE LIMITED POWERS: Considerations of Low-Yield Nuclear Weapons, Asymmetrical Capability, and Extended Deterrence

Quite recently, nuclear strategy scholars Kier Lieber and Daryl Press posited that arms’ tables have turned, citing the asymmetry of limited nuclear powers as a reboot of the United States (US)-North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) tactical nuclear playbook during the Cold War. Their key message—that “The United States must take seriously the nuclear capabilities and resolve of its foes”—isn’t lost on us: we previously called for the need to begin serious counter-weapons of mass destruction (WMD) planning for adversarial use of nuclear weapons below the threshold of Armageddon.
Year Published:
2024
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SMA Publication

Integrated Deterrence Reachback Study

This work was situated within the broader Strategic Multilayer Assessment Strategic Deterrence Frameworks (SDF) study, which incorporated four lines of effort (LOEs) and was initiated at the request of US Strategic Command (USSTRATCOM).
Year Published:
2024
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SMA Publication

Russian Nuclear Rhetoric 2014-2023: Transatlantic Differences in Threat Perception

After decades of discourse on disarmament and non-proliferation, the war in Ukraine has effectively marked the return of nuclear weapons to both mainstream public rhetoric and military-policy planning, and highlighted the growing importance of strategic deterrence. Russia’s progressively more intense nuclear saber-rattling over the past decade is partly due to an updated NATO posture and gradual commitments by Western nuclear powers to update their arsenals.
Year Published:
2024
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SMA Publication

Chinese Strategic Deterrence Frameworks

China does not have an overarching deterrence framework. However, it is possible to identify the primary objects of Chinese deterrence and describe the Chinese playbook. China’s core strategic aims consist of deterring 1) a nuclear attack; 2) conventional, space, and cyber-attacks; and 3) outside efforts to encourage secession or political unrest. Nuclear deterrence has traditionally taken the approach that a secure second-strike capability is sufficient to prevent an adversary from threatening first use.
Year Published:
2024
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SMA Publication

NATO Strategic Foresight Analysis, Drivers of a Pervasive Competition

The Strategic Foresight Analysis 2023 (SFA23) provides a shared understanding of the Evolving Security Environment to 2043, thus establishing the context for Allied futures thinking. Based on this context, the Future Operating Environment 2024 (FOE24) will address the military problem sets for Allied Warfare Development. FOE24 will also serve as a baseline for further conceptual and strategic thinking. The renewed foresight cycle, consisting of SFA23, FOE24 and deployable foresight analytics capacities, will facilitate collective futures thinking within the Alliance, as well as augment individual Ally’s foresight capabilities.
Year Published:
2024
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SMA Publication

Russian Strategic Deterrence Frameworks

This paper is structured around four key sections, each answering a core question. First,what is the relationship between Russia’s core strategic goals and the foundations of Russian strategic deterrence? Second, how has Russian strategic nuclear thought evolved from the Stalinist era to the present and, third, how can Russia’s approach to deterrence be contextualized within Moscow’s larger strategic competition with the US? Fourth, how does Russia’s approach to deterrence in the context of the Ukraine war currently impact the ways in which the West engages Russia?
Year Published:
2023
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SMA Publication

Strategic Culture Literature Review

The concept of strategic culture emerges in discussions of both tailored and integrated deterrence. This report examines the concept’s history, current consensus, and enduring debates about what it entails. It also proposes a model of strategic culture as a complex system.
Year Published:
2023
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SMA Publication

A Flexible Framework to Achieve Strategic Objectives in US-China Policy

The United States must adopt a new overarching strategy to guide US-China relations moving forward. Neither the traditional approach of engagement intended to promote democratic ideals, nor more recent confrontational practices, have worked. There is an urgent need for a new strategic framework that embraces Chinese political and economic realities and uses those realities to US advantage to advance US national and international agendas. What is proposed here is an innovative strategic framework utilizing a soft-power deterrence approach to simultaneously engage, challenge, and integrate China. Successfully implementing this strategy demands a flexible rather than reactive US-China policy encompassing short-term (reengagement), medium-term (challenging), and long-term (integrating) approaches that will advance US interests across the spectrum of cooperation, competition, and conflict throughout the coming decade.
Year Published:
2020
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SMA Publication

Understanding the Information Environment to Win the Next Conflict Without Firing a Shot

In our increasingly digital society, military operations and civilian-alike rely heavily on the technological tools that connect us. Social media has become a powerful influence tool to sow discord, sway sentiment, and purport cause for actions that otherwise would be condemned by the international community. Cellular services have become the default mode of communication. And the amount of data collected continues to grow.
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

SMA SEEK Results: Expanding US Nuclear Capability & Pessimism About Nuclear Use in the Next 15 Years

In August 2021, many of you participated in SMA’s inaugural Survey for Eliciting Expert Knowledge (SEEK) outreach. SEEK is SMA’s new, online capability for tapping into the collective knowledge, experience, and wisdom of our 5000+ person community of interest to generate crowdsourced insights on questions of interest. We conducted two surveys as part of this inaugural SEEK—one on deterrence and strategic stability, and a second on perceptions of threats and opportunities among US competitors. Perhaps surprisingly, we found:
Year Published:
2022
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SMA Publication

Evaluating China’s Road to Cyber Super Power

[Q5] How do US escalation management capabilities compare with those of our nuclear-armed competitors? How do relative non-kinetic capabilities (e.g., cyber exploits on infrastructure and information, communication of thresholds and redlines, integrated whole-of-government strategic messaging) contribute to these capabilities?
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

Outer Space in the Media Space: How Russian and Chinese News Media Present the Commercialization and Militarization of the Space Domain

This report details Russian and Chinese media presentations of operations and intentions in the space domain to their respective populations. These presentations provide us insight into how members of these nation states understand their government’s intentions and activities in the space domain, the opportunities and challenges their government’s face in approaching those intentions and activities, the alliances and norms necessary for space usage, and which actors are attempting to destabilizing the space domain.
Year Published:
2018
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SMA Publication

China’s Historical Plutonium Production

In this paper, we reevaluate China’s production of weapons-grade plutonium (WGPu) in order to estimate the maximum number of nuclear weapons using WGPu that China could build.† This WGPu was produced in the 801 Reactor at the 404 Plant in Gansu Province (or the 404 Plant reactor) and the 821 Plant reactor in Sichuan Province. Both are graphite-moderated, light-water-cooled production reactors that began operation in late 1966 and late 1973, respectively, and both have been shut down for decades (with the date of termination at issue between different authors). We know of no openly available information indicating that China has resumed WGPu production elsewhere.
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

The Challenge of Russia’s Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons: Western Air Supremacy as One Russian Justification for NSNW

Significant and enduring US/NATO advantages in aircraft and precision-guided munitions drives the Russian need for a varied and large stock of non-strategic nuclear weapons (NSNW). NATO nations, particularly those on the eastern periphery of the alliance, perceive a need for this defensive air combat capability to ensure their security. Russia views events – such as the Kosovo War and Desert Storm – as validating its fear that these capabilities could be used offensively against it. Moreover, for historical and geographical reasons, Russia is apprehensive about threats all along its dynamic European border. Against large numbers of truly fifth-generation F-22s and F-35s, backed by fourth-plus-generation F- 15EXs and Block III F-18E/Fs, Russian air defenders will likely experience high early attrition rates in a military conflict. The United States is expected to retain this advantage well into the future, as it is already flight testing is latest sixth-generation fighter aircraft. Based on this firm sense of technological and numerical inferiority, Russian political and military leadership perceives the need for a range of non- strategic nuclear capabilities.
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

The Escalatory Attraction of Limited Nuclear Employment For Great Power Competitors of the United States

The United States has entered into a dangerously new era in which, for the first time in our nation’s history, we now face two nuclear-armed great power competitors. Over the past three decades, while the United States has been focused on a variety of other national security challenges, Russia and China have observed the “US way of war” and made immense strides to position themselves to successfully counter that. While having achieved some level of success in closing the gap across a wide spectrum of military capabilities and operational realities, those two nuclear-armed peers have concluded not only that limited nuclear employment might be required in any conflict with the United States, but that this is a domain of conflict and level of escalation affording unique advantage for them since it is an area in which the US has neither the perceived will nor the perceived capabilities to compete. This paper discusses that “escalatory attraction” of limited nuclear employment for our great power competitors.
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

The Role of Nuclear-Conventional Intermingling on State Decision-making and the Risk of Inadvertent Escalation

In practice, there are three main forms of nuclear-conventional intermingling. First, intermingling between nuclear and non-nuclear weapon systems can occur via the fielding of dual capable delivery systems like missiles or aircraft. Second, intermingling can happen due to the co-location of nuclear and non-nuclear forces and their support structures—for example, the co-location of strategic bombers and general-purpose aircraft, or the co-location of strategic submarines and general-purpose vessels. Third, intermingling can occur via convolving nuclear and conventional military command and control systems, to include ballistic missile early warning and potentially space surveillance systems as well.
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

Operations in the Information Environment: Course of Action Analysis Exercise

The ICONS Project, a wargaming and simulation organization at the University of Maryland, was asked by the Joint Staff, J39, DDGO, Strategic Multilayer Assessment Office (SMA), to design, execute, and analyze a Table Top Exercise (TTX) in support of the Integration of Information in Joint Operations (IIJO) research
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

US versus China: Promoting 'Constructive Competition' to Avoid 'Destructive Competition' (Volume II)

It is not an exaggeration to state that China is and will remain a significant challenge to the US on all aspects of national power for the foreseeable future. This situation has been in the making for quite some time. This SMA Perspectives paper will not delve into the historical roots of why the US got to where it is, however. Nor will it dwell on the purely military aspects of the conflict. These are important considerations that are amply discussed elsewhere in numerous scholarly publications. This SMA Perspectives paper is focused on the following question: “How should the US manage the US-China relations so that they stay below the level of conflict and destructive competition?” In this context, the paper distinguishes “constructive competition” from “destructive competition.”
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

Experimental Red Teaming to Support Integration of Information in Joint Operations

This report supported SMA’s Integrating Information in Joint Operations (IIJO) project. For additional speaker sessions and project publications, please visit the IIJO project page.As part of the modeling and simulation phase of the IIJO effort, the Center for Advanced Red
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

Assessments of Operations in the Information Environment for the Eastern Mediterranean and South China Sea

In support of the USAF and the SMA, the TRADOC G-2 Modeling and Simulations Office (M&SO) employed the Athena Simulation to assess a series of research questions posed by the Air Force, as well as to test a series of explorable insights (hypotheses) developed during the project’s Net Assessment and Subject Matter Expert (SME) engagements. A total of 35 explorable insights were identified during the Net Assessment from which four specific study topics were derived for analysis utilizing the Athena Simulation. These included:
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

Media Reporting on Egypt’s Economy and Bailout Narratives: The Role of Egyptian, Chinese, and Russian Media Narratives in Solving Egypt’s Economic Crisis

This study examined Egyptian, Russian, and Chinese media perspectives of the Egyptian economy to determine to what extent a future economic crisis in Egypt is probable, and identification of which great powers would most likely lead bailout efforts should an economic crisis unfold. To answer these questions, researchers employed a mixed-method approach analyzing over 500 news articles from the past five years from 18 different Egyptian, Chinese, and Russian native language news sites.
Year Published:
2020
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SMA Publication

The COVID Crisis: Implications for United States—and Global—Biosecurity

The United States’ (US) engagement of public health resources to meet the current SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) crisis has revealed vulnerabilities in testing and treatment components of biosecurity. Facing a severe shortage of available testing kits, the US Centers for Disease Control (CDC) attempted to develop its own test for COVID-19, rather than following World Health Organization (WHO) recommendations for testing methods. The lack of tests has made it difficult to track exactly how many people within each state, as well as the US at-large have been affected, which has implications both for the extent of public health response, and considerations for approaches to stabilize and sustain the national economy.
Year Published:
2020
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SMA Publication

Assessment of Strategic Implications of Population Dynamics in the Central Region—Integration Report: Great Power Competition

At the request of the United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), SMA initiated a study to understand the strategic implications of destabilizing population dynamics within the Central Region. The effort examined drivers of instability in the region emerging from radicalization, great power competition, state-level instability, and black swan scenarios. This report integrates the research conducted by the teams listed on the front cover in response to USCENTCOM’s questions about great power competition. This report is intended to be a succinct, easily navigable representation of the exceptional work by the collective SMA team. Please click on the links embedded in the report to go directly to the research studies.
Year Published:
2020
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SMA Publication

A "Colder War" Future in the USCENTCOM AOR? Realpolitik Trajectory of Major Powers and Regional Players

This paper addresses potential security concerns in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region over the next 5-25 years if a strong Chinese-Russian alliance develops. It also offers the U.S. Central Command (USCENTCOM) possible approaches to pre-empt both the formation of a China-Russia Axis and subsequent emergence of a Middle East and North Africa (MENA) periphery.
Year Published:
2020
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SMA Publication

Central Region Instability Dynamics

With support from GTRI, GMU worked with Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) to assess strategic risk to U.S. and partner interests in the Middle East caused by great power competition in the region.
Year Published:
2020
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SMA Publication

Sino-Russian Competition: Self-Inflicted Competition in Central Asia?

China and Russia support each other’s political and economic objectives both globally and in the USCENTCOM area of responsibility (AOR) because, in part, of a strong mutual interest in weakening the United States’ geopolitical influence and power (Solomentseva, 2014; Lons, 2019).
Year Published:
2020
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SMA Publication

Assessing Buffers and Drivers of Conflict in the Arab Gulf

Experts contend that the risk of militarization of the dispute between Qatar and the Quartet is low. However, prolonged tension between the two sides has failed attempts at mediation and the underlying issues persist.
Year Published:
2020
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SMA Publication

Affording New Futures: The Neuroscience and Cognition of Reintegration and Reconciliation

[B4] How do you reintegrate radicalized people back into society? Both Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have centers focussed on this problem. What should the international community do with people who cannot be reintegrated into society? Are there lessons from other regions on reintegration and reconciliation that could be applied to the central region?
Year Published:
2020
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SMA Publication

Common Characteristics of "Successful" Deradicalization Programs of the Past

There is no “one size fits all” approach to disengagement and deradicalization—disengagement and deradicalization programs should be tailored to the specific environments and individuals/groups of interest. However, analysis of historical cases of disengagement and deradicalization programs reveals what appear to be several common characteristics of programs that have demonstrated some levels of success: creating a sense of hope and purpose, building a sense of community, providing individual attention and regimented daily schedules, and ensuring sustainable, long-term commitment following completion of the program (i.e., after- care).
Year Published:
2020
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SMA Publication

Terrorism in the Philippines and Its Influence on Great Powers

The UNO research team examined four active Violent Non-State Actors (VNSAs) and their capacity to disrupt Chinese influence in the Philippines. The four VNSAs include the Abu Sayyaf Group, the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters, the Moro National Liberation Front, and the New People’s Army. Drawing from both the Leadership for the Extreme and Dangerous for Innovative Results project and the Global Terrorism Database, they focused on each VNSA’s organizational and leadership capabilities as well as their tactical patterns between 2012 and 2017. Their findings suggest that, of the four VNSAs, the New People’s Army has both the motivation and resources to spoil Chinese influence in the Philippines.
Year Published:
2020
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SMA Publication

Rethinking Communication Influence from a Strategic Communication Approach

For over a decade, many within US defense and interagency circles maintain a belief they are ‘losing’ the communication influence battle, one its adversaries are excelling at due to seemingly better strategy and reach. Peer competitor infiltration into American elections, radical groups facilitating foreign fighter flow over chat applications, and/or failed attempts to counter narratives should reason for a glaring need for the US to change strategy. But surprisingly little or none of this strategic shift is occurring.
Year Published:
2020
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SMA Publication

Complex Adaptive Systems

In his interview with Lt Col David Lyle (US Air Force Academy) on 4 June 2019, Dr. Sean Lawson discusses how complexity might inform SMA’s Future of Global Competition & Conflict study. More specifically, Dr. Lawson argues that although it is important to look back at previous instances of the butterfly effect, butterfly effects are not possible to control because they are merely byproducts of a system’s existence.
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

Discrete, Specified, Assigned, and Bounded Problems: The Appropriate Areas for AI Contributions to National Security

The cluster of technologies associated with artificial intelligence (AI) research and development, and the implications of these technologies across the spectrum of human activity including national security, generates a blur of fast-moving technological, political, strategic, and ethical puzzles. For all their hyper-modern veneer, tracing the trajectories of historical thought associated with these puzzles offers some much-needed clarity. To this end, what follows is an overview of three relevant trajectories. While far from exhaustive, practitioners and theorists alike in national security should have a solid grounding in these thought trajectories to facilitate reasoned decisions about AI research and development.
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

Violent Extremist Organizations (VEOs): The Strategic Importance of Defining the Enemy

In this paper, as part of SMA’s Invited Perspectives series, Mr. Vern Liebl indicates that ‘violent extremist organization’ (VEO) may not be an accurate term for describing modern terrorist entities. To illustrate this point, Mr. Liebl first provides a brief history of how the term ‘VEO’ entered US defense, intelligence, and law enforcement officials’ lexicon and became commonly used. He then defines what the term ‘VEO’ means and questions whether it still appropriately applies to the organizations that have been labelled as such (namely Hezbollah, Al Qaeda, and the Islamic State).
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

Leaders of the Chinese Economy: Cognitive and Motivational Analyses

In order to gain a quantified, evidence-based picture of decision-making tendencies of Chinese industrial, technical, economic, and political leaders, the UBC research group assessed the integrative complexity and motivational hierarchy of high-level figures in government and (ostensibly) private enterprise.
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

SMA Invited Perspectives Series: SOF Paradigm in Great Power Competition

The current National Security, Defense, and Military Strategies identify great power rivalries from Russia and China as two of the main challenges facing the United States for the foreseeable future.
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

The Future of Global Competition & Conflict Comparative Analysis: A Media Ecology & Strategic Analysis (MESA) Group Report

This report provides a comparative analysis of Chinese, Russian, Iranian, and Venezuelan media narratives regarding visions of the future of global competition, including their instruments of exerting power (DIME), purported vulnerabilities and necessary capabilities, projected allies and adversaries, views on the future of global order (FGO), the US, and EU, as well as the available means by which global competition should be managed.
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

Chinese Strategic Intentions: A Deep Dive into China’s Worldwide Activities

This white paper was prepared as part of the Strategic Multilayer Assessment, entitled The Future of Global Competition and Conflict. Twenty-seven experts contributed to this white paper, providing wide-ranging assessments of China’s domestic and international activities in order to assess the future of China and the challenges that these activities may present to US interests. This white paper is divided into five sections and twenty-four chapters. While this summary presents some of the white paper’s high-level findings, the summary alone cannot fully convey the fine detail of the experts’ individual contributions, which are worth reading in their entirety.
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

Inequality, Risk Sensitivity, and Grievance in Context – An NSI Aggrieved Populations Analysis

Success in the global competition between the US, China, and Russia may be determined by a country’s ability to influence the world’s populations. A population’s aspirations and grievances can drive national security problems for all three powers when frustrated aspirations and grievances lead to state instability, terrorism, or other challenges such as unwanted or unmanaged migration. In accordance with the questions posed in the J39 Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) Great Power Competition tasking, this report summarizes context-specific qualitative and quantitative analyses of the conditions impacting population aspirations and grievances for 25 countries, and how these impact US, Chinese, and Russian interests. Issues include:
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

Global Strategy Amidst the Globe’s Cultures: Cultures in Individual Cognition, States and the Global System

How can the US make global strategy in a world both vast and rich with cultural diversity? This matters: the US shaped the global system more than any other power since 1945, and that system hugely benefited the US and much of the globe. Whoever leads the global examine two aspects of this challenge.
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Speaker Series (Tagged: Asia)

SMA Speaker Series

Using the New Character of Warfare to Dramatically Enhance Baltic Defense

Speakers: Dr. T. X. Hammes (Institute for National Strategic Studies)with Guest Host Dr. Nicholas Wright (Intelligent Biology)
July 16, 2025
‍Dr. T. X. Hammes
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SMA Speaker Series

China’s Nuclear Modernization and Its Implications

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Tong Zhao (Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) as part of its SMA INDOPACOM Speaker Series.
February 23, 2022
Tong Zhao
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SMA Speaker Series

SMA CENTCOM (Afghanistan) Reach Back Panel Discussion

SMA hosted a panel discussion focusing on the most recent round of CENTCOM Reach Back questions as a part of its SMA CENTCOM (Afghanistan) Speaker Series. The panelists for this session included Dr. John Arquilla (Naval Postgraduate School [NPS]), Mr. Thomas Barfield (Boston University), Dr. Hy Rothstein (NPS), and Dr. Craig Whiteside (NPS).
May 16, 2018
Dr. John Arquilla, Thomas Barfield, Dr. Hy Rothstein, and Dr. Craig Whiteside
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SMA Speaker Series

Afghanistan-Pakistan Relations: Sources and Outlook

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Karl Kaltenthaler (University of Akron and Case Western Reserve University) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM (Afghanistan) Speaker Series. Dr. Kaltenthaler first provided a brief summary of the present state of Afghanistan-Pakistan relations.
May 8, 2018
Dr. Karl Kaltenthaler
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SMA Speaker Series

Considerations in Southwest Asia Regarding Stability in Afghanistan

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Col Eero Keravuori (CENTCOM Combined Strategic Analysis Group J5-G) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM Speaker Series. Col Keravuori discussed the realignment of focus within CENTCOM — “a new great game”— looks at three factors that can be assessed to determine a pathway to Afghanistan’s stability (legacy of persistent instability, along with internal and external factors). Col Keravuori discussed each of these in turn, elaborating on internal factors (Afghan government, the Taliban, “power brokers,” and economics) and external factors (Afghanistan’s near neighbors and other powers) that have made stability difficult to achieve. Col Keravuori concluded by presenting a list of things that should be done to assist Afghanistan on its path towards stability and offering a series of relevant questions that SMA could help CENTCOM answer.
April 24, 2018
COL Eero Keravuori
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SMA Speaker Series

Russian Nuclear Strategy after the Cold War

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Ms. Kristin Ven Bruusgaard (Center for International Security and Cooperation [CISAC] at Stanford University) as a part of its SMA STRATCOM Academic Alliance Speaker Series. Ms. Ven Bruusgaard began the session by providing reasons why studying Russian nuclear strategy is important. She introduced the four iterations of Russian declaratory nuclear strategy since the end of the Cold War (occurring in 1993, 2000, 2010, and 2014), identifying their major features and changes across versions.
April 17, 2018
Kristin Ven Bruusgaard
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SMA Speaker Series

Measuring Success: Reconsidering the Use of Data for Evaluating Military Operations and Strategy

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Barnett Koven (University of Maryland START) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM Speaker Series. Dr. Koven began the session by presenting some of the problems evident in data analyses. He argued that removing erroneous data is difficult, automated analyses are still devoid of theory and human-like cognition, and we often apply the wrong theory when performing data analyses. Dr. Koven proceeded to explore this last problem further.
April 11, 2018
Barnett S. Koven
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SMA Speaker Series

Emerging Strategic & Geopolitical Challenges: Operational Implications for US Combatant Commands

SMA hosted a panel with Mr. Michael A. Clark (Director for Acquisition and Technology (J9), USCYBERCOM), Ms. Kayse Jansen (Branch Chief, Deterrence Analysis and Outreach, Plans and Policy Directorate, USSTRATCOM/J5), Mr. James “JJ” Jenista (Air Force Civilian, Joint Training, Exercise, and Wargaming Directorate (J7), USNORTHCOM & NORAD), Mr. Robert C. Jones (Senior Strategist, USSOCOM J5-JSOU Donovan Integration Group), Mr. Jimmy Krakar (Academic Coordinator, USEUCOM), Ms. Lesley Kucharski (Analyst, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory), Dr. Robert M. Toguchi (Chief, Concepts Division, Force Modernization Directorate (FMD), USASOC), Col David W. Walker (Policy Division Chief, USCENTCOM CCJ5), and Ms. Michele K. Wolfe (Senior Operations Research Analyst, USAFRICOM) as part of its SMA General Speaker Series.
January 25, 2023
Clark, M. (Director for Acquisition and Technology (J9), USCYBERCOM); Jansen, K. (Branch Chief, Deterrence Analysis and Outreach, Plans and Policy Directorate, USSTRATCOM/J5); Jenista, J. (Air Force Civilian, Joint Training, Exercise, and Wargaming Directorate (J7), USNORTHCOM & NORAD); Jones, R. (Senior Strategist, USSOCOM J5-JSOU Donovan Integration Group); Krakar, J. (Academic Coordinator, USEUCOM); Kucharski, L. (Analyst, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory); Toguchi, R. (Chief, Concepts Division, Force Modernization Directorate (FMD), USASOC); Walker, D. (Policy Division Chief, USCENTCOM CCJ5); Wolfe, M. (Senior Operations Research Analyst, USAFRICOM)
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SMA Speaker Series

US-Russia Relations in an Era of Strategic Competition

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Donald N. Jensen (Director of Russia and Strategic Stability, United States Institute of Peace [USIP]) as part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series.
December 1, 2021
Jensen, D. (USIP)
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SMA Speaker Series

Back to the Future: Trajectories, Simulations and Alternative Futures of Great Power Competition

The US and China have been locked in a great power competition (GPC) that will decide who has more political influence among both developing and developed countries.
July 12, 2023
Dr. Mark Abdollahian
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SMA Speaker Series

How Developments in Brain Science Afford Military Utility

The use of sarin gas in Syria and the nerve agent VX to assassinate Kim Jong-nam, and ongoing international efforts in dual-use brain science (such as those described in the accompanying papers) prompt renewed interest in the current and near-term possibilities of developing and employing neuroweapons.
April 17, 2017
James Giordano and Drs. Diane DiEuliis
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SMA Speaker Series

Deterrence Among Three to Twelve Nuclear Powers: Fundamental Instability and Mitigation Strategy

The fundamental instability of bilateral nuclear deterrence (Albert Wohlstetter’s “delicate balance of terror”) is mitigated, in part, by each adversary deploying and maintaining weapons systems that are capable of guaranteeing a second-strike after an adversary has launched a first-strike.
June 27, 2024
Dr. Claudio Cioffi-Revilla (George Mason University)
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SMA Speaker Series

U.S. Military Theories of Victory for a War with the People's Republic of China

The United States has not had to seriously consider conflict escalation with a near-peer adversary that could result in a conflict that ends in large-scale destruction since the Cold War.
November 13, 2024
Jacob Heim and Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga
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SMA Speaker Series

Ukrainian Resistance to Russian Disinformation: Lessons for Future Conflict

A key element of Ukrainian resistance to the Russian invasion has been its ability to counter Russian disinformation. In their recent report for RAND, Dr. Helmus and Dr. Holynska discuss Ukraine’s approach to combating disinformation and the lessons that the United States and NATO can draw from this effort.
September 19, 2024
Todd Helmus and Khrystyna Holynska
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SMA Speaker Series

The Origins of the War in Ukraine

Russia seeks to dominate both Ukraine’s territory and its political future. Dr. Kimmage analyzed Russia’s motivations for initiating the war, as well as the failures of the United States, Europe, and Ukraine in deterring the invasion.
October 14, 2024
‍Michael Kimmage
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SMA Speaker Series

Climate Change and Food Security in the Indo-Pacific: Challenges and Opportunities

The Indo-Pacific region is home to approximately 60% of the world’s population and contributes 60% of the world’s gross domestic product (GDP), making it one of the most significant regions to monitor.
October 3, 2024
Ameya Kelkar
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SMA Speaker Series

Future Scenarios for Sino-Russian Military Cooperation Possibilities, Limitations, and Consequences

The level of integration and cooperation between China and Russia in the event of a significant military conflict is often speculated upon, particularly given the rising political tensions in the Korean Peninsula and the South China Sea.
September 12, 2024
Mark Cozad, Cortez A. Cooper III, and David Woodworth
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SMA Speaker Series

Statelet of Survivors: The Making of a Semi-Autonomous Region in Northeast Syria: US Options in the New Phase of the Syrian Conflict

The political overtures made by Turkish President Erdogan to normalize relations with the Assad regime are reshaping the dynamics of the Syrian civil war.
August 28, 2024
Dr. Amy Austin Holmes
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SMA Speaker Series

Public Support for Self-Defence in Taiwan: The Current State of Research

Chinese President Xi Jinping has indicated that an invasion of Taiwan by 2027 is a distinct possibility, if not imminent. The concern of a Chinese invasion from the international community intensified following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
August 14, 2024
Dr. Yao-Yuan Yeh, Dr. Fang-Yu Chen, and Dr. Charles Wu
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SMA Speaker Series

How Innovative is China in Nuclear Power?

Analysts have long debated China’s capacity to innovate within its industry and economy. Mr. Ezell presented compelling evidence that China is not only more innovative than most analysts predict, but that its nuclear industry is particularly advanced.
September 10, 2024
Stephen Ezell
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SMA Speaker Series

Assessing the Impact of China's Slowing Economy on CCP Legitimacy using Hyperlocal Population Data

The Chinese economy has enjoyed massive growth during the last few decades as its economy transitioned from mostly agrarian to the world’s largest trading nation and an industrial superpower.
March 22, 2024
Katherine Ly
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SMA Speaker Series

Russia’s Cyber Power Base: From Cybercriminals to Private Contractors

Justin Sherman spoke to the SMA audience about Russia’s cyber power base—not just the state and intelligence actors, but also the private contractors and private sector companies that play an important role in Russia’s cyber power.
August 7, 2024
Justin Sherman
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SMA Speaker Series

Foreign Assistance in an Era of Strategic Competition

China is the only modern-day US competitor with both the intent and the capability to challenge the United States politically, militarily, and economically.
May 23, 2024
Daniel Cederberg
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SMA Speaker Series

Access Denied?: Assessing Options for Projecting Airpower into a Contested East Asia

China is striving to limit US military power projection in its home region of East Asia by enhancing its own ability to project air and missile power.
June 25, 2024
Nicholas D. Anderson and Daryl Press
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SMA Speaker Series

Rebuilding Ukraine with Mr. Pavlo Kukhta

The ongoing Russian invasion has dramatically affected Ukraine’s industry and economy, forcing Ukraine to reimagine and rebuild its industrial base and market structure.
June 20, 2024
Pavlo Kukhta
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SMA Speaker Series

Critical Minerals Geopolitics and Security

Minerals are crucial components of advanced weapons systems, playing a pivotal role in military capability and power projection. They are increasingly integrated into new attack platforms, including Virginia-class attack submarines and long-range missiles.
May 16, 2024
Morgan Bazilian and Gregory Wischer
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SMA Speaker Series

Some of the Analysis Behind RAND’s “Inflection Point” Report

Modern threats from developed nations like China are beginning to exceed US capabilities, partly because the US military was predominantly focused on regional adversaries such as Iraq during Desert Storm. Mr. Ochmanek categorized the US approach to military power projection during this period as expeditionary and sequential.
May 22, 2024
David Ochmanek
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SMA Speaker Series

Responses Against China's Coercion in the Indo-Pacific: Developing a Toolkit from the Philippines and Taiwan

China has escalated its aggressive and coercive tactics against smaller and less powerful states as part of its objective to become a regional hegemony.
April 24, 2024
Thomas J. Shattuck and Robin Michael U. Garcia
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SMA Speaker Series

The Qualities that Make Nations Competitive: Chinese and Russian Views

A significant portion of the current literature exploring Great Power Competition (GPC) among the United States, China, and Russia predominantly reflects a Western perspective.
April 23, 2024
Timothy R. Heath, Michael J. Mazarr, and Clint Reach
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SMA Speaker Series

The Sanctions Response to Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

The sanctions imposed on Russia in response to its past aggressive actions, such as the annexation of Crimea, targeted actors directly involved in its aggression. However, the current sanctions imposed on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine have a much broader scope, encompassing actors and institutions throughout Russian society.
April 11, 2024
Christine Abely
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SMA Speaker Series

The Globalization Myth: Why Regions Matter

Dr. O’Neil offers a reframed perspective on economic globalization, highlighting the prominence of increased interregional trade rather than international trade.
April 16, 2024
Shannon K. O’Neil
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SMA Speaker Series

The Future of US-Russian Relations

Even in the event of a military defeat suffered by Russia at the hands of Ukraine, it will continue to pose a formidable adversary to the US for the foreseeable future.
February 23, 2024
Thomas Graham
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SMA Speaker Series

Great Power Economic Competition, the PRC Economic Challenge, and the Prospects of De-Dollarization

According to Dr. Williams, there are two other important strategies employed by China to enhance the yuan’s prominence in the global financial sector involving the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and China’s dominance in the mass production of goods imported by other countries.
February 1, 2024
Dr. Brandon Kirk Williams
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SMA Speaker Series

Upstart: How China Became a Great Power

In her recent book, “Upstart: How China Became a Great Power,” Dr. Mastro delves into the rapid trajectory of China’s rise from global obscurity to great power status.
March 12, 2024
‍Oriana Skylar Mastro
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SMA Speaker Series

China and the Global South: Big Ambitions, Big Challenges

China’s economic slowdown coupled with its ambition to continuously compete with the US both economically and politically is compelling Beijing to intensify its efforts to increase political influence in the Global South. Mr. Schuman, who authored an article on why China will struggle to win over the Global South and how India can aid the US in countering China’s efforts, suggested that China’s ultimate geopolitical goal is to reshape the current political world order.
February 27, 2024
Michael Schuman
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SMA Speaker Series

Deterrence and Space Warfare

The strategy of space warfare is a subset of general warfare strategy; therefore, the ideas of deterrence, compellence, and dissuasion have applicability in the space domain.
January 4, 2024
Dr. John Klein
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SMA Speaker Series

Hybrid Warfare: Guile Born Out of Weakness

Russia’s historical strategy to protect its sovereign borders and security environment has been to act aggressively with its military, attempting to constantly expand its borders.
January 11, 2024
Curtis Fox
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SMA Speaker Series

Alternative Ukrainian Future Trajectories: Implications for Russia and the West

Dr. Graeme Herd at the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies is conducting multiple workshops and seminars, creating predicted pathways for war in Ukraine, using open-source materials. Dr. Herd identified five potential future pathways for the war in Ukraine, being: Ukrainian victory, Russian victory, protracted conflict, frozen conflict, and negotiated peace.
June 22, 2023
‍Dr. Graeme P. Herd
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SMA Speaker Series

Beijing Rules: How China Weaponized Its Economy to Confront the World

During the last 25 years, China has strengthened its ability to economically coerce governments, companies, multilateral institutions, and individuals, bringing them in line with the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) desires. She summarized China’s statecraft as a “clearly communicated set of rewards and punishments based on gatekeeping access to China’s huge markets, capital, and investments.” China uses its influence over markets as a vector for measuring illiberal political will among corporations and governments. China’s economic statecraft is purely political in nature. This means that any government, corporation, or individual who does not abide by the CCP’s guidelines are subject to sanctions. Ms. Allen emphasized that this is a juxtaposition to US and Western statecraft, in which sanctions are used to further multilateral goals of the liberal order.
October 18, 2023
Ms. Bethany Allen (Axios)
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SMA Speaker Series

China's Three Roads to Controlling Taiwan

The increasing political and military tensions between China and Taiwan are frequently discussed in Western media. During these discussions, politicians and pundits point out Taiwan’s strategic importance to the US and China, including US and Chinese strategic options. Mr. Kagan and Mr. Blumenthal discuss these topics and more in their new article “China’s Three Roads to Controlling Taiwan.” Mr. Kagan emphasized that while influencing Taiwan’s future is an important objective for both the US and China, it is not the most important objective for either country in the Asia Pacific region. A more important short-term objective for China is weakening anti-Chinese coalitions and alliances in the region. Furthermore, Chinese president, Xi Jinping, believes that there is plenty of time for China to achieve its objective of reunifying all of what he deems China by the goal date, 2049.
September 27, 2023
Dr. Dan Blumenthal (AEI) & Frederick W. Kagan (AEI); Jack Gaines, Moderator (One CA Podcast)
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SMA Speaker Series

Freedom in the World 2023: Marking 50 Years in the Struggle for Democracy

For fifty years, Freedom House has published its assessment of the state of democracy around the world. Freedom House categorizes countries and territories in to three groups based off a point system: 1) free, 2) partly free, and 3) not free. Dr. Gorokhovskaia mentioned that 2022 saw a continuation of a 17-year democratic slide; however, there were several bright spots for democracy around the world. For instance, during 2022 only one more country that became less democratic (35) than countries became more democratic (34). In comparison, during 2021, 35 more countries became more autocratic (60) than countries that became more democratic (25). Several factors that lessened the global strength of democracies during 2022 included a rash of military coups. For example, Burkina Faso experienced several military coups itself that resulted in the suspension of its constitution. Burkina Faso had the largest point decrease of 23-points during 2022. Columbia experienced the largest growth in democratic strength, increasing by 6 points. Columbia’s increase was due to more fair and competitive political elections than it had experienced in recent years. Individual country reports go into greater detail.
September 20, 2023
Yana Gorokhovskaia (Freedom House)
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SMA Speaker Series

The Minds and Actions of Devoted Actors and the Will to Fight: A Behavioral and Brain Studies Approach to War and Extreme Group Conflict

What drives warfighters to make costly sacrifices—including their lives—is a long-standing question that military and civilian leaders have tried to answer. Dr. Atran explained that this question can be studied through two different psychological models: 1) rational choice theory and 2) the devoted actor model. He argued that the devoted actor model is most suitable when assessing why people are willing to make costly sacrifices. When fighters decide that they are ready to freely give their lives, it is rarely a rational decision. Instead, it is a result of their devotion to the values that they hold most sacred. Understanding an individual’s sacred values is contingent on many factors, including how fused that individual’s identity is to that of a group. Individuals whose identities are completely fused with that of a single group are the most likely to give their lives in support of that group’s values.
September 12, 2023
Dr. Scott Atran (University of Michigan)
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SMA Speaker Series

A New Asian Order is Emerging

India’s expanding political influence is altering the current geopolitical order in Asia, with India positioned at its center. India’s growing role in geopolitics will over time take away some of the geopolitical focus on the Asia-Pacific region and place it on the Indo-Pacific region. Mr. Soliman emphasized that India’s geographical position at the center of the economic corridor running between China and the Middle East, give it a political and economic advantage. India’s massive population gives it massive economic and industrial potential on its own. India is also in a unique position to build political ties throughout the Indo-Pacific region with its historic and cultural ties throughout the Asia-Pacific and Middle East regions. To further its geopolitical influence in the Indo-Pacific, India is not only relying on its economic potential, but also signing military and security deals with other nations in the region. India is increasing its dialogue with several significant actors in the Middle East: Egypt, Israel, and Saudi Arabia. Finally, Mr. Soliman put forth that Shinzo Abe’s Indo-Pacific vision, an India-centric strategy with a focus on bilateral security dialogue with Australia and the US, is now coming true.
July 26, 2023
Mr. Mohammed Soliman (Middle East Institute)
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SMA Speaker Series

Russian Uncrewed Systems in Ukraine

The use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) is having a significant impact on the war in Ukraine, changing how Russia and Ukraine are actively fighting and carrying out intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance. Mr. Bendett summarized his latest Center for Naval Analyses (CNA) report, the third CNA report in a series examining Russia’s and Ukraine’s use of UAVs. He commented that the reports focus on the use of UAVs because they are the most prevalent unmanned vehicles being used in the war. Unmanned ground and water vehicles are being used, although less frequently. This is not the first time Russia has used UAVs. During the Syrian Civil War, Russia used UAVs in support of Assad’s authoritarian regime. However, the Syrian Civil War and the war in Ukraine are very different. Ukraine’s Armed Forces have significantly more capabilities and technologies than the Syrian rebels.
July 6, 2023
Mr. Samuel Bendett (Center for Naval Analyses)
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SMA Speaker Series

Artificial Intelligence and Global Power

The development of artificial intelligence (AI) has drastically increased in speed and scope. The speed at which AI is being developed is increasing its implications for its use in militaries and economic competition between countries. AI will inevitably play a strong role in the US-China great power competition. Chinese president, Xi Jinping, even stated that technology and science is the main battlefield on which countries fight. Past industrialization has influenced past great power competitions. For example, Great Britain and Germany industrialized more quickly than Russia during the 18th century, surpassing Russia and becoming the two strongest European economies. Dr. Scharre commented that despite China’s rapid development of AI, the US still has a strong scientific lead on its main geopolitical rival and is in a strong position to retain its lead. The competition for AI dominance will likely be decided by four factors: a) data collection, b) hardware and chip development, c) talent retention, and d) institutional strength.
June 28, 2023
Dr. Paul Scharre (CNAS)
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SMA Speaker Series

Russia’s Role in Global Nuclear Supply Chains

Ms. Dolzikova discussed how Russia’s civil nuclear sector has largely evaded the sanctions placed on the rest of the Russian economy since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. During her presentation she outlined the drivers of the global dependency on Russia’s civil nuclear supplies, highlighting the challenges and potential approaches to diversification. For more information on this topic, you can read Ms. Dolzikova’s article Catch-235: Western Dependence on Russian Nuclear Supplies is Hard to Shake.
September 12, 2023
Ms. Darya Dolzikova (RUSI)
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SMA Speaker Series

Safety and Security of Nuclear Installations in Ukraine and Implications for Future Conflicts

The war in Ukraine is raising questions about the security of Ukraine’s nuclear power plants and the safety of civilians who are in their proximity. Military and civilian leaders in other countries that possess nuclear power plants are examining how litigation could protect their own facilities during future conflicts. Ms. Dolzikova stated that this discussion has intensified since Russia occupied the Chornobyl Exclusion Zone and captured the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) during the early stages of its invasion of Ukraine. The ZNPP is still under Russian occupation, forcing collaboration between Ukrainian and Russian nuclear scientists, Ukrainian workers at ZNPP, the International Atomic Energy Agency, and the Russian occupiers to ensure the plant’s safety and security. Since Russia’s take-over, all six ZNPP nuclear reactors have been shut down. One reactor is in a “hot shutdown,” allowing it to produce steam. Russian nuclear scientists are insisting that it is necessary for this reactor to produce steam for the safety of the power plant, but Ukrainian scientists claim that a “hot shutdown” is an unnecessary hazard. They claim that keeping the reactor in this state is reducing the time window that workers would have to divert a catastrophe during a systems failure.
August 1, 2023
Ms. Darya Dolzikova (RUSI)
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SMA Speaker Series

The Ukrainian Army is Leveraging Online Influencers. Can the U.S. Military?

The war in Ukraine has demonstrated how cooperation between a country’s military and prominent social media influencers can be a useful tool for harnessing narrative control relating to conflicts. Dr. Helmus argued that Ukraine has been out-performing Russia in its ability to create and disseminate effective narratives surrounding the ongoing war. The success of Ukraine’s information operations is in part due to its tactic of leveraging civilian and military influencers who regularly post on social media. These influencers use their platform to share posts that highlight the loss of innocent life during Russian attacks, the resilience of Ukraine’s civilian population, and the success of Ukrainian military operations. These information operations come at virtually no cost to Ukraine because most creators are posting videos on their own volition. Dr. Helmus commented that while researchers have not been able to empirically confirm the positive effects of these social media operations, Ukrainian officials have emphasized their importance on the battlefield. While Ukraine has recently been using its media to great effect, the practice of leveraging influencers on social media is a well-used marketing strategy.
June 6, 2023
Dr. Todd Helmus (RAND)
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SMA Speaker Series

A Restraint Approach to U.S. China Policy

Although the US-China competition has global economic and political implications, it is still primarily focused on the Asia-Pacific region. If this strategic competition escalates to armed conflict, then it will become incredibly costly to both the US and China. Dr. Swaine presented two future pathways for this rivalry to take that avoid armed conflict. He emphasized that avoiding conflict must involve restraint from both actors, but especially the US. Exercising restraint will help the US achieve several objectives, including a) constructing a new national public narrative on national security, b) reallocating national security resources, c) maximizing cooperation with other nations, and d) augmenting economic openness and stability. Maximizing cooperation among different states, in particular, is becoming increasingly important as the world becomes much more multipolar.
June 1, 2023
Michael Swaine (Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft)
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SMA Speaker Series

CCP Weapons of Mass Persuasion

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Jackie Deal (President, Long Term Strategy Group) and Ms. Ella Harvey (Public Service Fellow, John’s Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies) as part of its SMA INDOPACOM Speaker Series.The Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP’s) origin is chronically understudied despite its strategic importance. The competitive strategy of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) today relies on information operations and techniques of cooption and subversion that the CCP learned during its first decade, the 1920s, coupled with approaches to conventional warfare honed soon thereafter. Dr. Deal and Ms. Harvey identified three recurring models or phases of CCP strategy: 1) internal takeover – coopting an adversary by appearing to cooperate or form a partnership with it, finding sympathizers in the nominal partner’s camp, and shaping joint activities in directions favorable to the CCP; 2) preparing for a break – exacerbating divisions within the partner’s camp and inflating the CCP’s capabilities to demoralize the partner in advance of a split; and 3) scripted military confrontation – launching a surprise attack designed to enable the CCP to exploit its superior preparation and positioning relative to the partner.
May 2, 2023
Dr. Jackie Deal (President, Long Term Strategy Group) & Ms. Ella Harvey (Public Service Fellow, John’s Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies)
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SMA Speaker Series

Exploring A Year Of Russian Television News’ Propaganda Landscape Through AI: From Speech &amp; Visual Analysis To ChatGPT

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Kalev Hannes Leetaru (The GDELT Project) as part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series.The GDELT Project provides researchers with many tools for analyzing public discourse through compiling large open-source databases and utilizing text-based analysis. This data is pulled from media sources across dozens of countries and in hundreds of languages. The GDELT Project is working to create the tools to accurately collect data from television news broadcasts and other forms of video, such as Tik Tok and Instagram. Current GDELT tools can identify images, objects, logos, and even some faces in video footage. However, these tools cannot identify the context in which these items are being shown or identify a subject’s emotions. This contextual information gives researchers a valuable insight into the sender’s intent.
March 28, 2023
Dr. Kalev Hannes Leetaru (The GDELT Project)
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SMA Speaker Series

The COVID-19 Intelligence Failure: Why Warning Was Not Enough

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Erik Dahl (National Security Affairs Department, Naval Postgraduate School) as part of its SMA General Speaker Series.Scholars and members of the intelligence community have historically caught early warning signs of national security disasters—like the COVID-19 pandemic—however their warnings have not been enough to stop these impending disasters. Several other historic intelligence failures that included warnings from the intelligence communities, including the terrorist attack on 9/11 and Pearl Harbor. However, he acknowledged that some do not consider past failures intelligence failures because intelligence analysts consider it their job to relay information and not suggest policy changes. He considered the COVID-19 pandemic as an intelligence failure because of three main factors: a) a strategic warning that got little traction, b) a lack of specific intelligence on the threat as it developed, and c) an absence of receptive decision makers. Dr. Dahl labeled the COVID-19 pandemic a whole-of-society failure.
April 5, 2023
Dahl, E. (Naval Postgraduate School)
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SMA Speaker Series

The Rise of the Chinese Techno-Security State

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Tai Ming Cheung (Director, University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation; Professor, School of Global Policy and Strategy, UC San Diego) as part of its SMA INDOPACOM Speaker Series.China has been strengthening its techno-security state with the ultimate ambition of rivaling the US’ global geopolitical influence and military power by 2049 and fully modernizing its military force by 2035. Dr. Cheung defined the techno-security domain as “where national security, technological innovation, military power, and economic development converge.” He pointed out that this is where the US-China great power competition converges and that the US has already competed in a great power competition using its techno-security domain (i.e., in the 1980s against both Russia and Japan). Chinese president, Xi Jinping, was expected to continue his predecessors’ focus on economic development upon taking office; however, he has increasingly bridged the gap between China’s economic growth and facets of national security. President Xi has continued to conflate China’s national economic and security development during his third term in office, beginning to accelerate the modernization of certain parts of China’s armed forces.
March 19, 2023
Dr. Tai Ming Cheung (Director, University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation; Professor, School of Global Policy and Strategy, UC San Diego)
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SMA Speaker Series

US Military Assistance to Ukraine in 2022: Impact Assessment

SMA hosted a speaker session with Ms. Egle E. Murauskaite (University of Maryland, ICONS) as part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series. The US has given military support to Ukraine as it defends against a Russian invasion. This support includes arms transfers, training for soldiers, and intelligence sharing during information operations. The US has been able to escalate its military support for Ukraine while also avoiding a direct military response from Russia. Also, the assumption that US arms transfers would increase arms smuggling in the region has been proven false. Instead, human trafficking has increased; however, this is a common war-time phenomenon. The aid that US and allies gave to Ukraine before the war has significantly influenced the conflict’s current state. This aid included peace-time military training of troops from 2014-2020.
March 15, 2023
Murauskaite, E. (University of Maryland, ICONS)
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SMA Speaker Series

Sino-Russian Relations: Articulating a World Order

China and Russia are frequently considered to have an alliance against the West; however, their actual relationship is one of convenience. China and Russia’s friendship has only been in place for a short time. Historically, the two countries have been rivals, disputing over territories and boundaries. The intensity of these disputes has weakened since the mid-1990s, however, due to the nations’ new political relationship. Their present-day partnership is based on the desire for a multi-polar world that weakens the US’ status as a superpower. However, their vision differs on how this multi-polar world order is comprised. The difference between China’s and Russia’s world view is the role that each other’s political rivals, other than the US, would play.
March 1, 2023
Garcia, Z. (Associate Professor of Security Studies, Department of National Security and Strategy, US Army War College); Modlin, K. (Instructor, Western Kentucky University)
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SMA Speaker Series

Russia's Open-source Code and Private-sector Cybersecurity Ecosystem

SMA hosted a speaker session with Mr. Justin Sherman (Founder & CEO, Global Cyber Strategies) as part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series.Russia and China are using their private sectors to strengthen their cyber defensive and offensive capabilities. Russian and Chinese companies have purposely uploaded flawed code to international communication companies’ open-source coding.. For example, Huawei, China’s large information technology company, has been the largest contributor to Linux code; however, it has uploaded 30 lines of code that exhibit suspicious behavior. Pushwoosh, a company based out of Russia, pretended to be an American company and gained access to the US Army’s security software, and wrote code for its cyber defense. While Russia does not have a telecommunications company the size as Huawei, the Kremlin is very active with its online coding and hacking communities. It is relying on private industry to bolster its defensive and offensive cyber capabilities.
February 22, 2023
Sherman, J. (Founder & CEO, Global Cyber Strategies)
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SMA Speaker Series

When Democracy and Security Interests Clash: Hard Choices for US Policymakers

The US government’s objectives of protecting its security interests and promoting democratic ideals abroad sometimes coincide (e.g., Ukraine), while at other times, they appear at odds. The US spends billions of dollars per year on foreign aid to support democratic values and human rights efforts. However, it also gives large amounts of aid and support to countries that have weakening democracies, human rights issues, or full autocracies in the name of national and regional security. The US has encountered this dilemma since the Cold War and the Reagan administration, Mr. Press stated. During this time, the US viewed supporting democratic values as pivotal while also partnering with oppressive autocracies like Chile to combat the USSR. The three major drivers of this dilemma in recent years, according to Mr. Press, include a) the US’s interest in maintaining stability in the MENA region, b) countering violent extremist organizations, and c) managing strategic competition with China.
February 1, 2023
Carothers, T. (Co-director, Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace); Press, B. (Non-resident Research Analyst, Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)
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SMA Speaker Series

The Return of Great Power War: Scenarios of Systemic US-China War

How a war between the US and China over Taiwan’s sovereignty would develop is a frequently debated subject by scholars and military leaders as China continues to deny the island nation’s autonomy. War games are an integral part of how decision makers develop their grand strategy; however, war games are a far cry from actual warfare, Dr. Heath stated. Dr. Heath and his RAND colleagues instead analyzed academic literature and Chinese documents in order to examine how a US-China conflict over Taiwan would occur at both a high and low intensity. The intensity refers to how aggressively China and the US would attack each other’s armed forces inside and outside of the theater. Dr. Heath stated that if any military conflict between the US and China were to occur, it would be a) long lasting, b) multidimensional, and c) transcontinental. Furthermore, regardless of the war’s intensity, the outcome would heavily influence who the global political and economic leader will be.
January 11, 2023
Heath, T. (RAND)
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SMA Speaker Series

Lost Seoul? Assessing Pyongyang's Other Deterrent

North Korea poses many military threats to its neighbor, South Korea, including a massive artillery barrage on its capital city, Seoul. A conventional artillery barrage would destroy infrastructure and threaten the lives of civilians living in the metropolitan area. Dr. Press and Dr. Anderson built a model, mapping the loss of civilian life during three specific scenarios: a) a surprise attack by North Korea during peacetime, b) a North Korean attack during a military crisis, and c) a preemptive US and South Korean attack. To determine the total loss of civilian casualties, the model considers the known number of North Korean artillery batteries, their predicted rate of fire, and their predicted overall effectiveness among other variables. Dr. Press estimated that North Korea has around 300 artillery batteries that can currently bombard Seoul.
November 29, 2022
Anderson, N. (Elliott School of International Affairs, The George Washington University); Press, D. (Dartmouth College)
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SMA Speaker Series

Slaughtering Sacred Cows? German Energy Security, Nuclear Sharing, and the War in Ukraine

After the Cold War, despite many warning symbols from Russia (e.g., President Vladimir Putin’s election in 1999, the war against Georgia in 2008, the annexation of Crimea in 2014), Germany and the rest of Europe entered a state of complacency regarding a potential Russian threat to Western security, energy, and hard power. Dr. Dorondo explained that successive German chancellors adopted a rosy vision of the nation’s future—a carbon-neutral Germany within a peaceful Europe. In the process, the nuclear power generation sector of Germany’s economy would be phased out, coal would no longer be used, and natural gas production would contribute to a new socioeconomic vision of the future. In part due to the lack of a perceived threat from Russia, German limited its military spending.
November 21, 2022
Dorondo, D. (Western Carolina University)
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SMA Speaker Series

Russia's New Approach to Influence During the Special Military Operation (SVO) in Ukraine

Russia’s information operations (IO) are playing a pivotal role in its ongoing invasion of Ukraine. Dr. Vartonova stated that not all narratives that Russia circulates in the information environment (IE) should be called disinformation because Russia uses truthful information in its IO campaigns as well. For example, Russian media highlighted that the Kremlin has given NATO an offer to end the war in Ukraine. However, it knew that NATO would most likely not accept its treaty. A more appropriate term for this kind of IO is adverse rhetoric. Most of Russian IO is designed for an international audience; however, it had to also convince its domestic audience that it should invade Ukraine. Russia used narratives such as the de-Nazification and de-militarization of Ukraine—among others—to keep the Russian people engaged. Russia has continually changed the dominant Ukraine narrativeto keep the support of the Russian population. Some of these changing narratives include a claim that Ukraine is creating biological weapons, targeting ethnic Slavs.
November 15, 2022
Vartanova, O. (US Marine Corps Information Operations Center (MCIOC))
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SMA Speaker Series

Semiconductors, China, Taiwan, and the US Policy Debate: Intersecting Technological, Economic Security, and Geopolitical Realities

China and Taiwan’s political relationship is highly confrontational; however, China’s dependence on advanced semi-conductors produced in Taiwan acts as a defensive shield for Taiwan. Semi-conductors are one of the most complex technological tools ever created. Dr. Cronin emphasized that the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TMSL) is responsible for most of the current semiconductor industry. Taiwan provides 70% of China’s semi-conductor needs. China has the industrial infrastructure and the capability to mass-produce semi-conductor chips; however, they lack the means to produce the highly advanced chips used in advanced weapons systems. It is believed that most of China’s advanced missiles include Taiwanese semi-conductor chips that were produced under contract with the US. The US owns much of the intellectual property associated with the semiconductor chip industry.
November 9, 2022
Cronin, R. (The Stimson Center)
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SMA Speaker Series

Threat Inflation and the Taiwan Issue: The Need for an Active Denial Strategy, Plus Assurances

The US faces many tough dilemmas on how to build military deterrence measures against China in the Asia-Pacific, protect Taiwan’s sovereignty, and not place Japan or other allies in politically compromising positions. Dr. Swaine commented that building deterrence through overall US military capabilities and the individual armed forces is a multi-faceted issue, involving both military deterrence and credible reassurance measures to avoid inadvertent conflict. Three ideal types of military deterrence approaches identified were: a) punishment, b) control, and c) denial. Dr. Heginbotham mentioned that the DoD’s military strategy has been slowly and consistently shifting toward active denial, but that more remains to be done. Active denial relies on phased operations and divisions of labor with allies among other principles. Effectively utilizing active denial’s principles will include some restructuring and aligning of the armed forces.
November 10, 2022
Swaine, M. (East Asia Program, Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft); Heginbotham, E. (Center for International Studies, MIT)
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SMA Speaker Series

Implications of China’s Nuclear Modernization and Expansion

China is modernizing its nuclear forces which is routine for modern nuclear countries; however, the speed and acceleration of China’s modernization is alarming Western leaders and scholars. Ms. Bradley commented that by growing its nuclear forces, China is creating nuclear capabilities to match their geopolitical ambitions, including regional hegemony. As China increases its nuclear capabilities, its adversaries will need to increase their levels of deterrence to maintain the geopolitical status quo. The characteristics of China’s nuclear deterrence can be described as focused, limited, and defensive. Historically, China has maintained a ‘no first strike’ policy. As it increases its nuclear capabilities, this policy may change. Its recent escalation of its nuclear forces represents a change in its nuclear strategy, not its security environment.
November 1, 2022
Bradley, J. (Plans and Policy Directorate, United States Strategic Command)
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SMA Speaker Series

Transcultural Predictors of Will to Fight

Combatants’ willingness to fight and sacrifice their lives, family, or personal property has altered the expected outcome of military conflicts throughout history. An opponent’s unexpected will to fight has affected the US in many of its regional conflicts, such as Vietnam and Korea. Recent conflicts in Iraq and Ukraine have further demonstrated that leaders in the US and other countries have a poor understanding of what constitutes a combatant’s will to fight and its effects on the battlefield. Most research to understand populations utilize mass survey data collection, which lacks the scientific rigor that analytical study of this topic requires. The research by Artis International uses online tools and social media, brain scans, and in-person interviews to understand what affects individuals’ will to fight. The studies focus on right-wing nationalists in Spain, jihadist fighters, and Ukrainian soldiers defending their homeland.
October 12, 2022
Atran, S. (Co-founder, Artis International; Emeritus Director of Research, France’s National Centre for Scientific Research)
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SMA Speaker Series

A World Emerging from Pandemic: Implications for Intelligence and National Security (Part 1 of 2)

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Kacper Gradon (Associate Professor, Department of Cybersecurity, Faculty of Electronics and Information Technology, Warsaw University of Technology (Poland)), Dr. Layla M. Hashemi (Researcher & Data Analyst, Terrorism, Transnational Crime and Corruption Center (TraCCC), George Mason University), Ms. Sarah Meo (PhD Candidate, Public Policy, Schar School of Policy of Government, George Mason University), and Dr. Michael Vlahos (Senior Fellow, The Institute for Peace and Diplomacy) as part of its SMA NIU Panel Discussion.
October 5, 2022
Gradon, K. (Associate Professor, Department of Cybersecurity, Faculty of Electronics and Information Technology, Warsaw University of Technology (Poland)); Hashemi, L. (Researcher & Data Analyst, Terrorism, Transnational Crime and Corruption Center (TraCCC), George Mason University); Meo, S. (PhD Candidate, Public Policy, Schar School of Policy of Government, George Mason University); Vlahos, M. (Senior Fellow, The Institute for Peace and Diplomacy)
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SMA Speaker Series

Ukrainian Resilience in the Context of Conflict Dynamics and International Public Opinion

Russia has lost the strategic initiative in its invasion of Ukraine, allowing for Ukrainian forces to slowly retake occupied territory. Ukraine will likely be able to retake the Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine, despite Russia’s recent mobilization of soldiers, argued Dr. Kagan. To increase Russian military forces, Putin will likely annex occupied territory and conscript its citizens. The failure of Russian armed forces is putting stress on Putin’s regime, prompting him to make veiled nuclear threats. However, it is unlikely that Russia will use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine. Putin’s nuclear threats are most likely to place pressure on the West. It is also likely that only a small percent of the crimes against humanity committed by the Russian soldiers in occupied territory are known. These crimes will likely continue to surface as Ukraine reclaims more territory.
September 28, 2022
Polyak, M. (President, Ipsos, North America Analytics); Kagan, F. (Senior Fellow & Director of the Critical Threats Project, American Enterprise Institute)
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SMA Speaker Series

Implications of a Coercive Quarantine of Taiwan by the People's Republic of China

Escalation between China and Taiwan over Taiwan’s sovereignty is increasing, leaving the US and its allies with few options if China blockades Taiwan. While Taiwan nearly monopolizes the production of advanced semiconductor chips, this monopoly does not shield it from Chinese aggression. Dr. Martin argued that its control of advanced semi-conductor production may give it a reason to bargain with China. This reason is partly because Taiwan relies heavily on China for both its exports and imports. Furthermore, China is significantly better positioned economically to outlast Taiwan if it becomes sanctioned for overt aggression.
September 21, 2022
Martin, B. (Senior Policy Researcher & Director of the Institute for Supply Chain Security, RAND); Gunness, K. (Senior Policy Researcher, RAND)
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SMA Speaker Series

Voices of China: A Conversation with Matthew Tye

China’s ruling government, led by President Xi Jinping, is becoming increasingly authoritarian and controlling over China’s media environment; however, China’s media and society was not always this restrictive. Mr. Tye’s presentation focused on China’s transition towards authoritarianism, which he witnessed first-hand while living there for nearly a decade. From 2008 to 2012, encountered a sense of optimism overall in China. Foreigners were treated with respect and friendliness, and China’s government relaxed its authoritarian policies in favor of economic growth. Mr. Tye stated that China even began borrowing US brands—like the NBA—for marketing campaigns in major city squares. He also described a strong developmental divide between rural and urban communities throughout China.
September 7, 2022
Tye, M. (Laowhy86 Media)
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SMA Speaker Series

The Berkeley Protocol as a New Guide for Strengthening Digital Investigation Methods

The increasing proliferation of smart phones and internet availability is changing the way that digital investigations are occurring, especially in remote areas. While the digital realm has existed since the invention of radio, video and satellite imagery have given digital investigators new tools within the past few decades. New tools and the creation of social media have also resulted in the need for new global standards regarding the collection and handling of digital information for legal purposes. These new standards are encapsulated in the Berkley Protocol. Dr. Koenig explained that the Berkley Protocol—the first international standard used in digital investigation and prosecution—is used to give investigators a starting point regarding the quality standards of information being collected and how to legally go undercover on social media.
August 24, 2022
Koenig, A. (Executive Director, Human Rights Center, UC Berkeley School of Law; Lecturer, UC Berkeley School of Law; Co-founder, UC Berkeley Investigations Lab); Freeman, L. (Director of Technology, Law, and Policy, Human Rights Center, UC Berkeley School of Law)
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SMA Speaker Series

Russia’s Revolution in Intelligence Affairs

Decision makers and military strategists expect artificial intelligence (AI) to change how war is fought. AI is a blanket term for several technologies and their capabilities. Many people believe AI’s defining feature is its level of autonomy; however, AI’s main function is actually as a decision-making tool.
August 16, 2022
Jonsson, O. (Director, Phronesis Analysis; Researcher, Swedish Defence University)
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SMA Speaker Series

China in Sri Lanka and the Political Economic Crisis

Mr. Abeyagoonasekera began the presentation by stating that China’s loans and investments in Sri Lanka are ultimately creating a debt trap.
August 2, 2022
Abeyagoonasekera, A. (The Millennium Project)
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SMA Speaker Series

Long Shadows: Deterrence in a Multipolar Nuclear Age

Dr. Pettyjohn explained that nuclear deterrence is frequently examined in the context of a bilateral competition rather than a multipolar competition between three or more nuclear capable states.
July 26, 2022
Pettyjohn, S. (Senior Fellow & Director of the Defense Program, Center for a New American Security [CNAS])
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SMA Speaker Series

Ukrainian Lessons

Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine was preceded by nearly a decade of Russian propaganda, claiming that Ukraine is Russian and that Ukraine is run by Nazis, and overall, perpetuating the dehumanization of Ukrainians. Journalists—especially Ukraine’s war-time journalists—are playing a crucial role in combating these Russian narratives and setting the groundwork for future legal trials relating to war crimes and sanctions.
July 14, 2022
Pomerantsev, P. (Senior Fellow, Johns Hopkins University); Butusov, Y. (Chief Editor, Censor.NET); Rybak, V. (Analyst & Project Coordinator, Internews Ukraine); Makaruk, M. (Speaker of the International Volunteer Intelligence Community, InformNapalm)
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SMA Speaker Series

The Real Way to Succeed in a Rivalry: The Societal Foundations of National Competitiveness

A country’s societal dynamism is directly linked to its international competitiveness, according to Dr. Mazarr. There are seven societal characteristics related to a country’s international competitiveness: national ambition and will, unified national identity, shared opportunity, activity, effective government institutions, learning and adapting mentally, and diversity and pluralism.
July 6, 2022
Michael Mazarr
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SMA Speaker Series

Ukraine, Connectivity, and the Future of War

The war in Ukraine is one of the most visible conflicts in history, partly because of the prevalence of smartphones in Ukraine (61%). Moreover, 85% of Ukrainians possess an active mobile-broadband subscription, allowing them to share images and photos of the war instantaneously.
June 29, 2020
Matthew Ford and Andrew Hoskins
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SMA Speaker Series

The Perfect Imbalance of the Sino-Russian Relationship

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Una Aleksandra Bērziņa-Čerenkova (Head of the Political Science Doctoral Programme & Director of the China Studies Centre, Riga Stradins University, Latvia) as part of its SMA EUCOM / INDOPACOM Speaker Series.
June 7, 2022
Una Aleksandra Bērziņa-Čerenkova
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SMA Speaker Series

Autonomous Weapons and the Future of War

The use of autonomous weapons systems is frequently debated by countries’ leadership, military personnel, and scholars because of its potentially destructive capabilities.
June 3, 2022
Paul Scharre
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SMA Speaker Series

Competition in the Gray Zone: Countering China’s Coercion Against US Allies and Partners in the Indo-Pacific

SMA hosted a speaker session with Ms. Cristina Garafola (Associate Policy Researcher, RAND) as part of its SMA INDOPACOM Series.
May 24, 2022
Cristina Garafola
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SMA Speaker Series

How America Can Seize Its Great-Power Opportunity

Past US foreign security policies primarily focused on adversaries’ capabilities and objectives rather than its own ability to project its desired messages and worldview.
May 4, 2022
Mr. Ali Wyne
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SMA Speaker Series

The Evolving Requirements for Extended Deterrence and Allied Assurance in the Indo-Pacific

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Shane Smith (Director, Air Force Institute for National Security Studies, US Air Force Academy) and Dr. Justin Anderson (Senior Policy Fellow, Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction, National Defense University) as part of its SMA INDOPACOM Speaker Series.
April 27, 2022
Dr. Justin Anderson and Dr. Shane Smith
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SMA Speaker Series

Barriers to Strategic Success in US Special Operations Forces Counterterrorism

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Katy A. Lindquist (Principal Research Scientist, NSI) and Dr. Barnett S. Koven (Data Science Manager, Deloitte Consulting; Adjunct Faculty Member, Joint Special Operations University) as part of its SMA SOCOM Speaker Series.
February 21, 2022
Dr. Katie A. Lindquist and Dr. Barnett S. Koven
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SMA Speaker Series

The Future of European Security

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. James Goldgeier (Visiting Scholar, Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford University; Visiting Fellow, The Brookings Institution; & Professor of International Relations, School of International Service, American University) as part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series.
April 21, 2022
Dr. James Goldgeier
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SMA Speaker Series

Killer Drones: Disruption Today, Destruction Tomorrow... The Future Is Now...

Commercial drones—which are permitted by governments for civilian use in many countries—are currently being used for military purposes in Ukraine.
April 7, 2022
Bill Edwards
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SMA Speaker Series

The Surprisingly Unsurprising Russo-Ukraine War: Learning and Teaching the Right Lessons for Integrated Deterrence

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Spencer Meredith (National Defense University), Dr. Peter Eltsov (National Defense University), Prof. Carolyne Davidson (National Defense University), and Maj. Gen. Patrick B. Roberson (Commander and Commandant, US Army John F. Kennedy Special Warfare Center and School, Fort Bragg) as part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series.
April 8, 2022
Dr. Spencer Meredith, Dr. Peter Eltsov, and Professor Carolyne Davidson
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SMA Speaker Series

Degrees of Separation: Targeted Decoupling and the US-China Relationship

SMA hosted a speaker session with Ms. Stephanie Segal(Non-resident Senior Associate, Economics Program, CSIS) and Mr. Matthew Reynolds (Research Associate, Economics Program, CSIS) as part of its SMA General Speaker Series.
March 30, 2022
Stephanie Segal and Matthew Reynolds
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SMA Speaker Series

How Thick or Thin Is Russian Support for Putin’s War Against Ukraine?—Political Perspectives of Russian Elites and Mass Publics Before the Invasion: An Analysis of Survey Data (2020-2021)

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Thomas Sherlock (Professor of Political Science, United States Military Academy, West Point) as part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series.
March 23, 2022
Thomas Sherlock, Ph.D
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SMA Speaker Series

Russian Information Operations and War in Ukraine—What Can We Expect and Do?

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Thomas Rid (Professor of Strategic Studies, Johns Hopkins University) and Mr. Peter Pomerantsev (Senior Fellow, Johns Hopkins University) as part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series.
March 17, 2022
Dr. Thomas Rid and Mr. Peter Pomerantsev
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SMA Speaker Series

Special Forces in Great Power Competition

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Jack Watling (Research Fellow, Royal United Services Institute (RUSI)) as part of its SMA General Speaker Series.
March 16, 2022
Dr. Jack Watling
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SMA Speaker Series

Countering Russia Through Irregular Warfare: Cost Imposition in Ukraine and Beyond

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Spencer Meredith (Professor of National Security Strategy, National Defense University) as part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series.
March 9, 2022
Dr. Spencer Meredith
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SMA Speaker Series

Stabilizing Great Power Rivalries

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Michael Mazarr (RAND) and Dr. Samuel Charap (RAND) as part of its SMA EUCOM/INDOPACOM Speaker Series.
March 3, 2022
Dr. Michael Mazarr and Dr. Samuel Charap
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SMA Speaker Series

Russia’s Ambitions in the Arctic Towards 2035

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Pär Gustafsson (Swedish Defence Research Agency [FOI]) as part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series.
February 20, 2022
Dr. Pär Gustafsson
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SMA Speaker Series

China’s Nuclear Modernization and Its Implications

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Tong Zhao (Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) as part of its SMA INDOPACOM Speaker Series.
February 25, 2022
Tong Zhoa
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SMA Speaker Series

Where Does France Stand In the Upheaval of the World?

SMA hosted a speaker session with Ms. Tsiporah Fried (Senior Advisor to the Vice Chairman of the French Joint Chiefs of Staff) as part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series.
February 24, 2022
Tsiporah Fried
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SMA Speaker Series

Russian Approaches to Strategic Deterrence and Tactical Coercion

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Samuel Charap (Senior Political Scientist, RAND) as part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series.
February 24, 2022
Samuel Charap
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SMA Speaker Series

Poland's New Model Army

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Jacek Bartosiak (Founder and Owner, Strategy & Future; Senior Analyst, Geopolitical Futures) as part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series.
February 4, 2022
Jacek Bartosiak
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SMA Speaker Series

Integrating Deterrence Across the Gray—Making It More Than Words

SMA hosted a speaker session with Mr. Robert Jones (USSOCOM), LTC Catherine Crombe (USSOCOM SOCCENT), and LTC Steven Ferenzi (USSOCOM SOCCENT) as part of its SMA General Speaker Series.
December 8, 2021
Lt. Col. Katie Crombe, Lt.Col. Steve Ferenzi, and Mr. Robert C. Jones
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SMA Speaker Series

The Real and Present Risk of Low-Yield Nuclear Weapons on the Battlefield

Russia’s and China’s status as near-peer nuclear competitors with the US is changing the reality of what a military conflict would look like.
January 12, 2022
Dr. Adam Lowther
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SMA Speaker Series

The Uses and Limits of US Leverage in Fragile States

The research team from RAND examined several cases of political stabilization in countries following civil war to predict the likelihood of whether a state will return to violence after peace in the future.
August 31, 2021
Stephen Watts and Jeffrey Martini
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SMA Speaker Series

Chinese Illicit Activities Conducted Through Myanmar

Speaker(s): Tower, J. (Country Director, Burma Program, United States Institute of Peace [USIP]); Rotberg, R. (Founding Director, Program on Intrastate Conflict, Harvard Kennedy School; President Emeritus, World Peace Foundation); Cooper, S. (National Investigations Journalist, Global News); Gaines, J. (Communication and Policy Advisor, Public Affairs).
December 7, 2021
Jason Tower, Prof. Robert I. Rotberg, Sam Cooper, and MAJ Jack Gaines
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NSI Publications (Tagged: Asia)

NSI Publication

Trajectory of U.S./North Korean Nuclear War

Hours after the Washington Post broke the story that North Korea may have miniaturized a nuclear warhead, enabling its ICBM to deliver a nuclear blow to U.S. soil, President Trump announced that if North Korea continues to provoke, will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen.”
Year Published:
2017
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NSI Publication

International Transgressions Magnify Gray Zone Challenges

The current international system presents multiple potential challenges to US interests. In recent years, state actors, especially but not limited to Russia and China, have taken actions that disrupt regional stability and potentially threaten US interests (Bragg, 2016).
Year Published:
2017
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NSI Publication

Discourse Insights into Future US-China Relations

The future of the US-China relationship seems increasingly uncertain, to say the least. Increased tensions between the two international powers were seemingly ignited when US President Donald Trump (President-elect at the time) engaged in a telephone call with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen on 2 December 2016
Year Published:
2017
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NSI Publication

SMA Perspectives Virtual Discussion

Please join SMA for its second SMA Perspectives Virtual Discussion: a two-hour companion event to our recently released SMA Perspectives volume, US versus China: Promoting “Constructive Competition” to Avoid “Destructive Competition.”
Year Published:
2021
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NSI Publication

Russian and Chinese Influence in Iran: Sources and Future Trends

Among all the experts interviewed for this report, there was a general consensus that relations between Iran and both Russia and China are driven by pragmatic considerations. Many described the Iran-Russia and Iran- China relationships as primarily transactional, with each having something concrete the other needs to meet their domestic economic growth and development needs.
Year Published:
2020
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NSI Publication

Summary of NSI's "Assessment to Collapse in the DPRK: A NSI Pathways™ Report—Featured in Red Diamond Volume 10, Issue 1

This article was featured in Volume 10, Issue 1 of the US Army Training and Doctrine Command’s (TRADOC G2) journal, entitled Red Diamond.
Year Published:
2020
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NSI Publication

Gray Zone Trends in Colombia, Libya and Ukraine

This report employs frequentist statistical analysis in order to model the effects of various factors, including the type of actors (state, violent non-state actor (VNSA) or civilian) involved and the prevalence of kinetic activity, on (de-)escalatory trends in Gray Zone conflicts.
Year Published:
2017
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