French and British Nuclear Thinking in the ‘Three Body Problem’ Era

Speakers: Dr. Bruno Tertrais (Foundation for Strategic Research) and Professor Malcom Chalmers (RUSI)

Speaker Session Summary

France and Britain are part of a Western democratic alliance; however, they have developed their own unique perspectives on nuclear deterrence, issues such as the three-body problem, and how to best confront Russian aggression. Both speakers, Dr. Tertais and Professor Chalmers, emphasized that their views were their own and did not represent the opinions of the UK and French government. Dr. Tetrais commented that France does not have the size or scale of the US nuclear arsenal; however, France does not need such a large arsenal as it faces different security problems. For example, it was difficult for Dr. Tetrais to imagine a future scenario where France must simultaneously deter Russia and China. However, he did emphasize that even though France does not expect to deter multiple nuclear actors, it does have the capability to do so.

Similar to France, the UK faces nuclear security dilemmas of its own. Professor Chalmers also discussed the size of the UK’s nuclear arsenal and the lack of need for it to match the arsenal held by the US. He conceded that the UK could probably not handle the financial burden of maintaining a nuclear force that large. He also believed that the damage Russia could inflict on the UK by using a nuclear weapon would far outweigh the benefits. Both speakers questioned how integrated deterrence would look among allies and whether a single organization was the best option to coordinate integrated deterrence in a whole of society approach. Professor Chalmers emphasized the need for interstate and intrastate cooperation and suggested that a successful whole-of-society approach to deterrence is not really integration at all, but coordination between allies, industry, and the whole of government.

Speaker Session Recording

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Briefing Materials

Biographies:

Dr. Bruno Tertrais is Deputy Director of the Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique (Foundation for Strategic Research, FRS), the main French think-tank on international security issues, and an Advisor for Geopolitics at Institut Montaigne. His areas of expertise include geopolitics and international relations, strategic and military affairs, nuclear affairs, US policy and transatlantic relations, security in the Middle East and in Asia. He was previously a Senior Research Fellow at FRS (2001-2016), a Special Assistant to the Director of Strategic Affairs at the Ministry of Defense (1993-2001), and a Director of the Civilian Affairs Committee at the NATO Parliamentary Assembly (1990-1993). In 1995-1996, he was a Visiting at the RAND Corporation. He was a member of the Commissions on the White Paper on Defense and National Security appointed by President Sarkozy (2007) and Hollande (2012), and a scientific adviser to the French government’s High Commissioner for Planning (2020-2021). Tertrais is a member of the Group of Eminent Persons of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization Preparatory Commission; of the International Institute for Strategic Studies; of the Executive Committee of the Haifa University Maritime Strategy Center; of the Group of Eminent Persons for the Substantive Advancement of Nuclear Disarmament; of the Consultative Council of the Global US Special Operations Forces Foundation; of the Council of the Jean Monnet Foundation; of the editorial board of The Washington Quarterly; of the editorial board of the Journal of Security and Strategic Analyses. In 2016, he was awarded the Legion of Honor by President Hollande. He has a monthly column on geopolitics in the weekly Le Point.

Professor Malcolm Chalmers is Deputy Director-General of RUSI and directs its growing portfolio of research into contemporary defence and security issues. His own work is focused on UK defence, foreign and security policy. His most recent papers have been on national interest and UK foreign policy, tensions between the rules-based international systems, UK defence budgeting, and the security implications of Brexit. Professor Chalmers has been an Adviser to Parliament’s Joint Committee on the National Security Strategy since 2012, and was Senior Special Adviser to Foreign Secretaries Jack Straw MP and Margaret Beckett MP.