The COVID-19 Intelligence Failure: Why Warning Was Not Enough

March 2023 No Comments

Speaker: Dahl, E. (Naval Postgraduate School)

Date: 5 April 2023

Speaker Session Summary

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Erik Dahl (National Security Affairs Department, Naval Postgraduate School) as part of its SMA General Speaker Series.

Scholars and members of the intelligence community have historically caught early warning signs of national security disasters—like the COVID-19 pandemic—however their warnings have not been enough to stop these impending disasters. Several other historic intelligence failures that included warnings from the intelligence communities, including the terrorist attack on 9/11 and Pearl Harbor. However, he acknowledged that some do not consider past failures intelligence failures because intelligence analysts consider it their job to relay information and not suggest policy changes. He considered the COVID-19 pandemic as an intelligence failure because of three main factors: a) a strategic warning that got little traction, b) a lack of specific intelligence on the threat as it developed, and c) an absence of receptive decision makers. Dr. Dahl labeled the COVID-19 pandemic a whole-of-society failure.

As the COVID-19 pandemic continued, the US government failed to track the pandemic effectively. Also, Dr. Dahl argued that the US is not more prepared for the next global pandemic than it was during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. He emphasized that during the next pandemic, there will need to be more cooperation between the intelligence community and medical professionals; however, medical professionals should lead the effort in smothering the disease. Also, the wider use of contract tracing and increasing public support and health funding in general could help repress the effects of a future pandemic. Another positive sign is the founding of the Center for Forecasting and Outbreaks Analytics. Increasing readiness for natural disasters is important because they are becoming more frequent and extreme. Dr. Dahl concluded his presentation on a positive note, stating that while society is facing more existential threats, the US and the world can do something about it.

Speaker Session Recording

Briefing Materials

Biography: Erik J. Dahl is an associate professor of national security affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California, where he is also on the faculty of the Center for Homeland Defense and Security. His research and teaching focus on intelligence, terrorism, and international and homeland security, and he is the author of Intelligence and Surprise Attack: Failure and Success from Pearl Harbor to 9/11 and Beyond (Georgetown University Press, 2013). His latest book is The COVID-19 Intelligence Failure: Why Warning Was Not Enough (Georgetown University Press, 2023). He retired from the U.S. Navy in 2002 after serving 21 years as an intelligence officer, and he received his Ph.D. from the Fletcher School of Tufts University. He is a former chair of the Intelligence Studies Section of the International Studies Association.