Contagious Counterinsurgency: How Civilian Social Networks Shape Military Control
“Contagious Counterinsurgency: How Civilian Social Networks Shape Military Control”
Speaker: Haim, D. (Dartmouth College)
Date: 18 December 2018
Speaker Session Preview
SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Dotan Haim (Dartmouth College) as a part of its SMA STRATCOM Speaker Series. During his presentation, Dr. Haim argued that the strength of civilian social networks, as well as the amount of information on government credibility received from the surrounding area, dictate whether counterinsurgency will be effective in a particular locality. He explained that civilians play a key role in counterinsurgency since they know who insurgents are and where they are located. He further stated that civilians have a solid understanding of their strategic position and are skeptical as to whether the government will follow through with its promises. Dr. Haim explained that civilians reduce this uncertainty by obtaining information via social networks from surrounding areas. The types of information that they seek relate to the security concerns associated with cooperating with the government and whether the government is actually committed to long-term development projects in the region. He then outlined his two hypotheses: Counterinsurgency is more effective when civilians have stronger social network ties to 1) areas under government / military control and 2) areas that receive development projects. Dr. Haim used the New People’s Army’s (NPA) influence in two villages in the Philippines (Benguet and Union) as examples. He then presented his research, which examines the effectiveness of counterinsurgency in a wider variety of villages in the Philippines, as well as whether the strength of family ties and social networks impact effectiveness. To conclude his presentation, Dr. Haim presented his key takeaways, conclusions, and policy implications.
Dotan Haim is a Postdoctoral Fellow at the Dartmouth College Dickey Center for International Understanding and will join American University’s School of International Service (SIS) as an Assistant Professor in 2019. He earned his PhD in Political Science from the University of California, San Diego, in 2018.
Dr. Haim specializes in international relations and comparative politics, with a focus on counterinsurgency and social networks. His research combines large-scale social network analysis with randomized field experiments to examine how a government’s ability to combat insurgency and violent crime depends on the nature of social ties that shape information flow among civilians. This approach helps explain why counterinsurgency and policing efforts succeed in some localities but not others.
While his primary regional focus is Southeast Asia—particularly the Philippines—the implications of his work extend to counterinsurgency, counterterrorism, and policing more broadly. He also has a broader interest in applied network analysis, including published research on international alliance networks and the real-time prediction of influenza outbreaks using social network data. More information is available at www.dotanhaim.com.
Site-wide Search
Search all site content, including all NSI and SMA publications, SMA Speaker series, NSI Team member bios, services, portfolio projects, company info, and more.
