Terrorism | National Security Topic | NSI

All Publications & Speaker Series

Tagged: National Security Topic = Terrorism

Below you'll find all publications tagged with the selected "National Security Topic." To jump between SMA Publications, SMA Speaker Series, and Other Publications libraries, use the "Jump to Results" bar.

Jump To Results

SMA Publications

SMA Speaker Series

NSI Publications

SMA Publications (Tagged: Terrorism)

SMA Publication

Syria Da'esh Insurgency

The contributors varied in their discussions of what a Da’esh transition—or the future of Syria more broadly—would look like. Drawing on work by Gelvin, Pagano suggests that three scenarios are most likely for Da’esh’s transition in Syria. These include the complete destruction and disappearance of the group and its ideology; transition into an insurgent group capable of conducting limited operations in Syria and/or inspiring attacks abroad; or disintegration into a loose collection of former fighters and free agents conducting attacks, in some cases without organizational support. Finally, University of Oklahoma ME expert, Dr. Joshua Landis, indicated that while it is difficult to generalize, the extreme factionalization that characterized Syria prior to Da’esh’s involvement would likely come back into play. As such, we may expect a revived emphasis on the clan or tribe, with ongoing resistance to central government. Landis continued by suggesting that sufficient weakening of Da’esh will eventually enable the Syrian government led by Assad to regain broad control.

Year Published:

2017

View Publication

SMA Publication

Perspectives on Terrorism and Responses to It

This white paper is a follow-on report to a recent publication entitled “Over a Decade Later…What Now? What Next? A Multi-Layer Assessment of Terrorism in its Current and Future Manifestation.” 2 The previous paper was primarily an analytical product intended to provide insight into what current social science research and over a decade of practical experience suggest regarding the most effective counterterror strategies. It was based on comments made during multiple, semi-structured telephone interview sessions conducted between 06 May and 12 June 2013. The current white paper includes a series of articles by authors who participated in the previous white paper. These articles expand on the main themes raised in the previous report and cover topics ranging from strategic and adaptive considerations of terrorism to analytical considerations.

Year Published:

2013

View Publication

SMA Publication

Part I: Characterizing the Iraqi-Syrian Conflict System

This is Part I of a larger study exploring the dynamics of the central Middle East conflict system. It describes the system and why it is critical to assess U.S. security interests and activities in the context of the entire system rather than just the conflicts (e.g., defeat of ISIL) in which the U.S. is most interested. Part II describes the analytic approach used to assess regional dynamics and regional futures based on the alignments and conflicts among three critical drivers: actor interests, resources and resolves. Part III illustrates the analytic process applied to 20-plus actor over five of the eight conflicts. The final results are presented in a Power Point briefing.

Year Published:

2016

View Publication

SMA Publication

Info Ops in Iraq and Syria

The following set of responses to Question S3 represent an attempt to distill the input from individuals who have contributed to any number of OSD-SMA efforts in recent years. Giordano’s Access, Assess, Engage (AAE) framework will be used to categories these recommendations. The recommendations are an attempt to distill the concepts proposed in a set of recent OSD-SMA publications . CENTCOM may improve cognitive engagement by producing a broader, more expansive joint intelligence preparation of the operational environment (JIPOE). An expanded JIPOE (Joint Intelligence Preparation of the Operational Environment) could potentially identify the behaviors of target audiences necessary to achieve US objectives, to develop possible psychological effects and leverage operations as a cognitive scheme of maneuver that could lead to synchronizing actions and messages to achieve coalition objectives. Below is a very high-level summary — details are in the report.

Year Published:

2016

View Publication

SMA Publication

Counter Extremism in Sunni Communities

The Sunni community is not homogenous, and contributors expressed their discomfort making broad generalizations for a number of reasons. Most Sunni Arabs still consider themselves first a citizen of their respective countries with the exception of populations in the midst of conflict like Iraq, Syria, and Yemen (anonymous). Local customs and histories result in a different experience for Sunnis in, for example, France versus Chechnya (Olidort). Furthermore, there is no single Sunni leader (like the Pope or the Ayatollah or even a senior theologian) with religious legitimacy to assert leadership over the Sunni community (Shaikh).

Year Published:

2017

View Publication

SMA Publication

Population’s Positive View of ISIL

There is ample evidence that by and large Muslim populations in the MENA region and Europe do not view ISIL favorably (see QL 3). However, there are many similarities and a few significant differences among these populations regarding the credibility and salience of many of the messaging themes that ISIL espouses.

Year Published:

2016

View Publication

SMA Publication

How to Position USG Against a Long Term ISIL Threat

Expert contributors agree that terrorism will remain a long-standing global threat. In addition, there is emphasis on the leadership of the USG as a whole of nation concept. The military alone cannot position parties against lasting terrorism threat but it certainly can shape and influence them through stability operations and other people centric maneuvering. It must work in close cooperation with other USG colleagues and coalition partners to do this while mitigating not only ISIL global impact, but other people and groups that strive to commit the devastating acts of violence. Further the USG should take deliberate measures to lessen underlying factors that lead parties to terror responses. Some specific ideas from this group of contributors include:

Year Published:

2016

View Publication

SMA Publication

Counter-Messaging to Prevent Radicalization

After the fall of Mosul, as it became clear that Daesh could no longer creditably claim broad swaths of territory for its caliphate, it deliberately reverted to a strategy of insurgency, according to Syrian expert Hassan Hassan.1 Its withdrawal into the rural desert landscape—and to what a radicalization expert, Haroon Ulla, calls the “cloud caliphate”2—has implications for counter-radicalization messaging. Hassan reminds us that when the organization was defeated in the late 2000s, it came back stronger than ever. He notes that its messaging has recently pivoted to attempts to erode trust between Sunni Arab populations and any form of legitimate government. Daesh’s messaging is fueled by the recent memory of the failure of the Sahwa (or Awakening) movement to produce meaningful political reforms for Sunni populations in Iraq. In Syria, Daesh still benefits from the ongoing conflict and enduring Sunni Muslim grievances. At the same time, hardened foreign fighters are leaving Syria and Iraq for other regions where extremism is flourishing including the Sinai region of Egypt and Yemen (Hassan). And, of course, some foreign fighters are returning home across the globe where they can be incubators of future generations of extremists (Hassan).

Year Published:

2018

View Publication

SMA Publication

Denying the Seeds of Future Conflict

Ambassador James Dobbins and a team from the RAND Corporation contend, “the Syria civil war is approaching, if not a conclusion, at least a hiatus that might be converted into a conclusion.”1 Major regional players—United States, Russia, and NATO—have a converging interest in ending the conflict and facilitating a stable peace, Dr. Amir Bagherpour of giStrat argues. However, despite an emerging shared preference between Russia and the United States on ending the conflict in Syria, rivalry dynamics between Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Qatar, and the UAE will likely have a dampening effect on peace prospects as the proxy warfare intensifies following the military defeat of Da’esh. Mr. Hassan Hassan of Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy warns that the worsening of the various conflicts in the region is still a serious possibility.

Year Published:

2018

View Publication

SMA Publication

Influence in an Age of Rising Connectedness

A strong argument can be made that we are moving toward a pluralized, multipolar world, in which military and economic sources of power are widely distributed. Technologies (e.g., the Internet and rapid means of mass migration) are making nation states increasingly more porous, and a resurgence of nationalism and other forms of ethnic or religious identity politics has solidified some states and weakened others. Given these properties of human development, the question remains as to how nations and societies position themselves to ride these revolutionary changes with some degree of confidence. The continuance of these factors may change the way that the US, its partners, and its adversaries consider and prioritize influence, both within the state and across interstate borders. The DOD is evolving in ways that demand a more synergistic approach than we have traditionally taken across the human and technical dimensions. To date, military operations have characteristically focused on compelling adversaries through the threat or application of force to achieve victory (i.e. “control”). Changing environmental factors, increased activism by non-state actors, technology, and recent lessons learned suggest that the DOD will be challenged to adopt revised, if not entirely new approaches, to affect and direct the outcomes of military operations. Toward such ends, the DOD will need to focus upon the factors and forces that exert the necessary influence to produce desired behavioral outcomes across complex and intermeshed human and technical systems.

Year Published:

2017

View Publication

SMA Publication

Future of ISIS: What Experts Think Will Happen Next?

At its zenith in 2014, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) controlled more than 100,000 square kilometers of territory. ISIS seized control over major cities, notably Mosul and Raqqa, which contributed to increasing disorder in the Middle East. As late as 2015, the geographic reach of ISIS appeared to pose serious threats to the territorial integrity of Iraq and Syria as well as the physical safety of citizens in the region. Nonetheless, as of June 2017, estimates show that about 90% of Mosul had been liberated as Iraqi forces, in coordination with the Coalition, while they continued to regain large portions of the western part of the city. Similarly, a battle to retake Raqqa is in progress. US officials estimate that only around 2,000 ISIS fighters remain in the city, while US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Coalition forces total around 55,000 fighters. Given these developments, ISIS is likely facing the end of its territorial rule.

Year Published:

2017

View Publication

SMA Publication

US Discoverable Government Information Assets Directory

The United States Government possesses a vast store of information assets that can be leveraged to inform a variety of problem sets, and can be used by a wide range of governmental actors in the formation and execution of whole-of-government strategies. To enable this goal, however, these assets first must be made accessible in a single source that catalogues the information that is held.

Year Published:

2017

View Publication

SMA Publication

Meaning of ISIS Defeat & Shaping Stability

ISIS will be defeated militarily. However, whether it is ultimately overcome by containment or by deploying ground forces to apply overwhelming force, the path to mitigating violent extremism in the region is a generations-long one. Military options are insufficient to protect US interests and stabilize the region. It will require significant strengthening of State Department and non-DOD capacity to help build inclusive political institutions and processes that protect minority rights in Syria and Iraq. Only if these flourish will ISIS — the organization and the idea it represents — have failed and the region been put on a sustainable path to stability.

Year Published:

2017

View Publication

SMA Publication

US-DiGIA: USG Discoverable Information Terrain

The United States currently faces a complex and dynamic security environment. States are no longer the only critical actors in the international arena; rather, a diverse range of non-state entities also has the potential to affect US interests and security—for good or bad. Economic influence, information control and propaganda, political influence, and social discontent can be and are being utilized by state and non-state actors alike to achieve their goals, in many cases bypassing the need for direct military action. In response, the US military is challenged to accomplish more, across a greater variety of domains, while facing a constrained budget environment. There are two central implications of this: first, many of the most intractable security problems the US faces require a whole of government approach. Second, in a complex and evolving international environment characterized by new and often ambiguous threats, information itself is a critical asset.

Year Published:

2017

View Publication

SMA Publication

10th Annual SMA Conference - From Control to Influence

The Strategic Multi-Layer Assessment (SMA) office hosted the 10th Annual SMA Conference on 25-26 April 2017 at Joint Base Andrews. This year’s conference, formally titled “From Control to Influence? A View of—and Vision for—the Future,” brought together a multidisciplinary group of participants to consider how the US and its allies can more effectively counter the influence that recently re-emerging, capable states (such as China and Russia) and non-state actors (such as ISIS) exert on their neighbors and/or third parties through multiple elements of power.

Year Published:

2017

View Publication

SMA Publication

Discussion with NPS Experts - May 2017

On 11 May 2017, NPS convened a panel session and discuss areas related to the 4th round of CENTCOM Reach Back Cell Questions. The speakers are listed below, and their biographies are available in Appendix A.

Year Published:

2017

View Publication

SMA Publication

Panel Discussion on Iraq and Syria

This report represents the views and opinions of the participants. The report does not represent official USG policy or position. At the request of United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), the Joint Staff (JS), and jointly with other elements in the JS, Services, and US Government (USG) Agencies, the Strategic Multi-Layer Assessment (SMA) team established a virtual Reach Back Cell. This initiative, based on the SMA global network of scholars and area experts, has provided USCENTCOM with population based and regional expertise in support of ongoing operations in the Iraq/Syria region. This Panel will discuss the main findings from the SMA Reach Back Cell.

Year Published:

2017

View Publication

SMA Publication

Highlights From Round 1, 2, 3 Questions

ISIS will be defeated militarily. However, whether it is ultimately overcome by containment or by deploying ground forces to apply overwhelming force, the path to mitigating violent extremism in the region is a generations-long one. Military options alone are insufficient to protect US interests and stabilize the region. It will require significant strengthening of State Department and non-DoD capacity to help build inclusive political institutions and processes in Syria and Iraq. Only if these flourish will ISIS — the organization and the idea it represents — have failed and the region been put on a sustainable path to stability

Year Published:

2017

View Publication

SMA Publication

Impact of the Presence of ISIS in Africa

While the consideration of ISIS’s fate in Syria and Iraq of course adds significant value to the question of ISIS in Africa, ISIS’s next steps there appear to call upon a far broader set of considerations. Ultimately, the question of ISIS in Africa is complicated by the intricacies of local, state, and regional variation; competing factions and shifting loyalties, as well as the evolving situation in the Levant. Each of these issues could provide its own opportunity for a deep dive. As a first step, this report aims to provide an overview of the various considerations at play.

Year Published:

2017

View Publication

SMA Publication

Strategic Multi-layer Assessment Report Card

Strategic Multi-Layer Assessment (SMA) provides planning support to Commands. SMA projects focus on complex operational imperatives requiring multi-agency, multi- disciplinary solutions that are NOT within core Service/Agency competency. SMA solutions and participants are sought across USG and beyond. SMA is accepted and synchronized by Joint Staff (JS/J-39) and executed by ASD(R&E)/EC&P/RRTO. SMA efforts are Coalition based and address mission areas spanning Counter-Terrorism; Counter-Insurgency; Countering Proliferation of WMD (State and non-State); Individual, State, and National-level Deterrence Assessment; and Strategic Global and Regional Assessments.

Year Published:

2017

View Publication

SMA Publication

Part 9 Coalition Views of SMA Reachback Responses

This is Part 9 of a 9 part series of SMA Reach back responses to questions posed by USCENTCOM. Each report contains responses to multiple questions grouped by theme. At the request of United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), the Joint Staff, jointly with other elements in the JS, Services, and U.S. Government (USG) Agencies, has established a SMA virtual reach-back cell. This initiative, based on the SMA global network of scholars and area experts, is providing USCENTCOM with population based and regional expertise in support of ongoing operations in the Iraq/Syria region.

Year Published:

2017

View Publication

SMA Publication

Turkish Interests in Syria and Iraq

The SME contributors to this SMA Reach-back write-up argue that the recent changes in Turkish security policy (e.g., pursuit of ISIL along with the PKK; relaxing of demands for Assad’s removal; warming relations with Russia, etc.) do not necessarily indicate that Turkey’s key interests and intentions have changed. Rather, the shifts should be seen as changes in objectives or tactics that are still thoroughly consistent with Turkey’s fundamental and enduring security interests: 1) containing and ultimately eliminating Kurdish or other threats to Turkey’s internal stability; and, 2) foiling Kurdish (or others’) ambitions that threaten the integrity of Turkey’s borders. Former Principal Deputy Director of National Intelligence David Gompert (USNA, Rand) explains that recognizing Turkey’s dire concern with territorial integrity goes a long way in clarifying what may at first blush appear to be inconsistent policies regarding Assad, Syria, ISIL and even its “traditional enmity” toward Russia. Gompert expresses the message clearly: “…we can count on the Turks to do whatever it takes to prevent Kurdish states on their southern border.”

Year Published:

2017

View Publication

SMA Publication

SMA Reachback: Part 8 Post ISIL Governance

This is Part 8 of a 9 part series of SMA Reach back responses to questions posed by USCENTCOM. Each report contains responses to multiple questions grouped by theme. At the request of United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), the Joint Staff, jointly with other elements in the JS, Services, and U.S. Government (USG) Agencies, has established a SMA virtual reach-back cell. This initiative, based on the SMA global network of scholars and area experts, is providing USCENTCOM with population based and regional expertise in support of ongoing operations in the Iraq/Syria region.

Year Published:

2017

View Publication

SMA Publication

Views of Sunni and Shia Extremism

Question (R2 QL8): How does the U.S./Coalition view Shia extremism? Different from Sunni extremism? How do Sunni communities, Shia communities, MENA countries, and media perceive the U.S./Coalition position on combatting extremists?

Year Published:

2017

View Publication

SMA Publication

Syrian Reaction to Salafi Institution

Question (R3 QL6): How will the population in northwest Syria react to future Salafist political institutions? Similar to points made by other contributors to this SMA Reach-back report, Dr. Kathleen Reedy of Rand includes a caveat in her response to the CENTCOM question. Given international pressure to avoid Salafi expansion in Syria, it is doubtful she argues, that Salafist policies or leaders would be allowed to become dominant over sizeable areas of northwest Syria. Nonetheless, contributors’ input on the likely response to future Salafist political institutions in northwest Syria tends to align with one of two viewpoints: 1) Syrians will reject Salafi efforts to establish political institutions (i.e., to govern); or 2) Salafi governance will be accepted under certain circumstances.

Year Published:

2017

View Publication

SMA Publication

Military Influence in Post-ISIL Levant

Question (R2 QL7): What significance will small military groups, particularly in Northern Syria, have in a post-ISIL Levant? How should CENTCOM best shape or influence these groups?

Year Published:

2017

View Publication

SMA Publication

Part 3 Encourage Regional Stability

This is Part 3 of a 9 part series of SMA Reach back responses to questions posed by USCENTCOM. Each report contains responses to multiple questions grouped by theme. At the request of United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), the Joint Staff, jointly with other elements in the JS, Services, and U.S. Government (USG) Agencies, has established a SMA virtual reach-back cell. This initiative, based on the SMA global network of scholars and area experts, is providing USCENTCOM with population based and regional expertise in support of ongoing operations in the Iraq/Syria region.

Year Published:

2017

View Publication

SMA Publication

Black Swans to Defeating ISIL in al-Raqqah

Question (R2 #5): What are potential unanticipated complications or reactions (or “black swans”) with respect to defeating ISIL in al-Raqqah?

Year Published:

2017

View Publication

SMA Publication

Learning From the Countries Favorable to ISIL

Question (R2 #2): In countries where polling shows favorable opinions of ISIL (Syria, Nigeria, Tunisia, Senegal and Malaysia), what does this tell us? What do these countries have in common? What is our best approach to influence/inform?

Year Published:

2017

View Publication

SMA Publication

Recent IO Efforts and Sentiments

Question (R2 QL1): Have sentiments changed since the December 2014 polling? Have recent IO efforts in Mosul influenced these sentiments? What other means can we use to influence?

Year Published:

2017

View Publication

SMA Publication

Part 5 The Various Sources of Extremism

This is Part 5 of a 9 part series of SMA Reach back responses to questions posed by USCENTCOM. Each report contains responses to multiple questions grouped by theme. At the request of United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), the Joint Staff, jointly with other elements in the JS, Services, and U.S. Government (USG) Agencies, has established a SMA virtual reach-back cell. This initiative, based on the SMA global network of scholars and area experts, is providing USCENTCOM with population based and regional expertise in support of ongoing operations in the Iraq/Syria region.

Year Published:

2017

View Publication

SMA Publication

Part 6 ISIL Support and Recruitment

This is Part 6 of a 9 part series of SMA Reach back responses to questions posed by USCENTCOM. Each report contains responses to multiple questions grouped by theme. At the request of United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), the Joint Staff, jointly with other elements in the JS, Services, and U.S. Government (USG) Agencies, has established a SMA virtual reach-back cell. This initiative, based on the SMA global network of scholars and area experts, is providing USCENTCOM with population based and regional expertise in support of ongoing operations in the Iraq/Syria region.

Year Published:

2017

View Publication

SMA Publication

Part 2 Learning From the Fight Against ISIS

This is Part 2 of a 9 part series of SMA Reach back responses to questions posed by USCENTCOM. Each report contains responses to multiple questions grouped by theme. At the request of United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), the Joint Staff, jointly with other elements in the JS, Services, and U.S. Government (USG) Agencies, has established a SMA virtual reach-back cell. This initiative, based on the SMA global network of scholars and area experts, is providing USCENTCOM with population based and regional expertise in support of ongoing operations in the Iraq/Syria region.

Year Published:

2017

View Publication

SMA Publication

Part 1 A Compendium of Messaging Reports

This is Part 1 of a 9 part series of SMA Reach back responses to questions posed by USCENTCOM. Each report contains responses to multiple questions grouped by theme. At the request of United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), the Joint Staff, jointly with other elements in the JS, Services, and U.S. Government (USG) Agencies, has established a SMA virtual reach-back cell. This initiative, based on the SMA global network of scholars and area experts, is providing USCENTCOM with population based and regional expertise in support of ongoing operations in the Iraq/Syria region.

Year Published:

2017

View Publication

SMA Publication

Syria Da’esh Insurgency

The contributors varied in their discussions of what a Da’esh transition—or the future of Syria more broadly—would look like. Drawing on work by Gelvin, Pagano suggests that three scenarios are most likely for Da’esh’s transition in Syria. These include the complete destruction and disappearance of the group and its ideology; transition into an insurgent group capable of conducting limited operations in Syria and/or inspiring attacks abroad; or disintegration into a loose collection of former fighters and free agents conducting attacks, in some cases without organizational support. Finally, University of Oklahoma ME expert, Dr. Joshua Landis, indicated that while it is difficult to generalize, the extreme factionalization that characterized Syria prior to Da’esh’s involvement would likely come back into play. As such, we may expect a revived emphasis on the clan or tribe, with ongoing resistance to central government. Landis continued by suggesting that sufficient weakening of Da’esh will eventually enable the Syrian government led by Assad to regain broad control.

Year Published:

2017

View Publication

SMA Publication

Violent Non-state Actors in the Gray Zone

Using the Virtual Think Tank (ViTTa) expert elicitation methodology, NSI asked six leading gray zone experts whether Violent Non-state Actors (VNSAs) belong in the definition of the gray zone. However, experts were reticent to answer this question; they thought the question missed the point. The focus should not be how to define the major threats that are facing the USG, but rather how to leverage all instruments of national power to respond to them. When pushed to answer the original question, experts largely conceded that VNSAs, by themselves, do not rise to a level of significant threat in the gray zone, but are key tools used by state actors to achieve their ends. They concluded by identifying other challenges and solutions facing the USG in the gray zone.

Year Published:

2017

View Publication

SMA Publication

Reduce Recruiting of ISIL Fighters

This paper addresses the issue of ISIL recruitment from Literature Review Question #3. To do this, it utilizes a quick look format and focuses on two non-standard ideas approaches to challenge of terrorist recruitment. For readers interested in source materials on this subject, this paper also incorporates a bibliography at the end of the document.

Year Published:

2016

View Publication

SMA Publication

Shaping Post-ISIL Iraq and Region

The expert contributors to this paper agree on the relationship between regional security and stability in Iraq: A strong and stable Iraqi government is a fundamental component of regional stability. The key to stability in Iraq is the popular legitimacy of central and local governance. Rather than operationally specific proposals, the experts suggest shaping objectives that USCENTOCM can use to prioritize and guide planning of shaping and engagement activities in four areas most critical for enhancing stability in Iraq: Political Reform Border Security, Public Safety, and Provision of Public Services. While USCENTCOM may take the lead in assisting Iraqis with issues such as border security and public safety, it likely would play a supporting role on the political and rule of law issues discussed below.

Year Published:

2016

View Publication

SMA Publication

Population Support for ISIL in Iraq

Opinion polls conducted by independent outfits in 2015 and 2016 derive the same result: the vast majority of Muslims in the region—both inside and outside of the CJOA—do not support ISIL. In fact, ISIL enjoys very low support as a percent of the population across all countries covered by the surveys included in this compilation. Syria showed the highest level of support (20%) while most Muslim-majority countries fall in the single digits (Mauro, 2015). These low numbers recede further when support is defined as providing active or material support rather than sympathy for the cause (Burson-Marsteller, 2016).

Year Published:

2016

View Publication

SMA Publication

ISIL Propaganda Effects

There was general acknowledgement among the experts that wide-spread, public access to smartphones has been both a game-changer for both the distribution and production of propaganda materials. Smart devices with web access were also cited by many as the predominant medium by which both global and local audiences receive ISIL propaganda and the catalyst for the fading of former distinctions between means used to communicate with “macro” versus “micro” audiences. Even ISIL messages primarily intended for local audiences (e.g., weekly newsletters) do not stay local; they are digitized and may be found on the internet and thus are available globally.

Year Published:

2016

View Publication

SMA Publication

Turkish Army Syrian Intervention

There is general consensus among the expert contributors that the strategic and operational implications of the Turkish incursion are minimal: each sees the incursion as consistent with previous Turkish policy and long-standing interests. Turkey’s activities should be viewed through the lens of its core strategic interest in removing the threat of Kurdish separatism, which at present has been exacerbated by renewed Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK) insurgency inside Turkey, its influence in northern Iraq, and the expansion of Kurdish territories in Syria more generally. As one commented, Turkey will prioritize itself. This means preventing the strengthening of Kurds at all costs (including indirect support to those fighting them). It also means patrolling borders, harsh treatment of those who try to get through and/or corrupt practices such as involvement in smuggling. One implication of note however is the increased risk of escalation between Turkey and Russia and Turkey and the US-backed Peoples Protection Units (YPG) that the incursion poses.

Year Published:

2016

View Publication

SMA Publication

Socio-Political Stability in Syria and Iraq

This White Paper presents the analytic results from Strategic Multi-layer Assessment (SMA) project touching on the Middle East and North Africa. The objective is to suggest options to manage conflict in the region and to facilitate socio-political stability in Iraq and Syria. Options that are discussed are intentionally “out-of-the-box”, non-kinetic, and focused on potential Coalition efforts to:

Year Published:

2016

View Publication

SMA Publication

Applying Bio-Psycho-Social to Cognitive Engagement

The recently released White Paper entitled “Assessing and Anticipating Threats to US Security Interests: A Bio-Psycho-Social Science Approach for Understanding the Emergence of and Mitigating Violence and Terrorism” that Giordano discusses in the succeeding section provided a scientific perspective on current operations. The current White Paper provides operational perspectives on that and other relevant sciences. Previous versions outlined WHAT scientific approaches might be relevant; this iteration focuses on HOW to operationalize it.

Year Published:

2016

View Publication

SMA Publication

Part IV: Results of 5 of 8 Conflicts in Iraqi-Syria

This briefing is the final part of a four-part study exploring the dynamics of the central Middle East conflict system. Part II describes the system and why it is critical to assess U.S. security interests and activities in the context of the entire system rather than just the conflicts (e.g., defeat of ISIL) in which the U.S. is most interested. Part II describes the analytic approach used to assess regional dynamics and regional futures based on the alignments and conflicts among three critical drivers: actor interests, resources and resolves. Part III illustrates the analytic process applied to 20-plus actor over five of the eight conflicts. Part IV presents the results of the interest, resolve, capability assessment.

Year Published:

2016

View Publication

SMA Publication

Part III: Use Case Analysis of Iraqi-Syrian Conflict

This is Part III of a larger study exploring the dynamics of the central Middle East conflict system. Part I described the system and why it is critical to assess US security interests and activities holistically rather than just in terms of the conflicts (e.g., defeat of ISIL) in which the US is most interested. Part II described the analytic approach used to assess regional dynamics and regional futures based on the alignments and conflicts among three critical drivers: actor interests, resources and resolves. Part III illustrates the analytic process applied to 20-plus actors for five conflicts. It uses the Syrian Civil War as a use case.

Year Published:

2016

View Publication

SMA Publication

Part II: Assessing Dynamics of the Iraqi-Syrian Conflict

This is Part II of a larger study exploring the dynamics of the central Middle East conflict system. Part I described the system and why it is critical to assess US security interests and activities holistically rather than just in terms of the conflicts (e.g., defeat of ISIL) in which the US is most interested. Part II described the analytic approach used to assess regional dynamics and regional futures based on the alignments and conflicts among three critical drivers: actor interests, resources and resolves. Part III illustrates the analytic process applied to 20-plus actors for five conflicts. It uses the Syrian Civil War as a use case.

Year Published:

2016

View Publication

SMA Publication

Counter-Da'esh Influence Operations

At the request of Joint Staff, the SMA program, in coordination with United States Army Special Operations Command (USASOC) and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), participated in a second Counter-Da’esh Messaging Simulation that brought together nearly 100 Psychological Operation (PSYOP) operators, USG and international observers, interagency representatives, population experts from Iraq and North Africa, Da’esh experts, universities, and think tanks. This exercise served as both a test bed for messaging techniques and a training opportunity for PSYOP operators.

Year Published:

2016

View Publication

SMA Publication

Maneuver and Engagement in the Narrative Space

The paper leverages and melds the latest thinking of academic and operational subject matter experts in fields of organizational and social dynamics, network analysis, psychology, information operations and narrative development, social media analysis, and doctrine development related to aspects of maneuver and engagement in the narrative space.

Year Published:

2016

View Publication

SMA Publication

Bio-Psycho-Social of Violence and Terrorism

This white paper represents the work of intra- and extramural subject matter experts (SMEs) from multiple disciplines, convened to provide views and insights to define and further develop a bio- psychosocial approach to understanding, assessing, and influencing the cognitions and behaviors of individuals and groups that are devising, recruiting, training, and implementing organized aggression and violence. In light of current national and international security concerns, a major focus of this report is upon those bio-psychosocial factors that are influential to, and influenced by the activities of the group known as Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant— ISIL (or Daesh/Da’ish).

Year Published:

2016

View Publication

SMA Publication

Scientific Methods for Countering Extremism (2015 Edition)

Why are we reissuing the paper collection, “Countering Violent Extremism: Scientific Methods and Strategies”? The answer is simple. Five years later, violent extremism is still an issue. In September 2014, President Obama spoke at the United Nations, calling on member nations to do more to address violent extremism. This was followed by a three-day summit in February 2015 to bring together local, federal, and international leaders to discuss approaches to counter violent extremism. The wisdom contained in this paper collection is more relevant than ever. I encourage everyone to read it, again or for the first time, in whole or in part.

Year Published:

2015

View Publication

SMA Publication

Subject Matter Expert (SME) Assessment of ISIL

From July through November 2014, NSI conducted a Subject Matter Expert (SME) Elicitation study to gather insights from interviews, panel discussions, seminars, and personal communications with over 50 SMEs from the United States, the Middle East, and Europe. The interview questionnaire and transcripts from the SME elicitation effort are available upon request. CTTSO provided the Apptek Talk2Me platform to expedite the transcription of the SME Elicitation interviews. In addition, all of the data (human edited and original audio) are posted on the Web-based Talk2Me platform for the SMA study for further analytics and reporting.

Year Published:

2015

View Publication

SMA Publication

Leader Assessment of Bashar al-Assad (Part I)

This report suggests potential types of actions and messages most likely to influence and deter Bashar al-Assad from using force in the ongoing Syrian civil war. This study is based on multidisciplinary discourse analyses of Bashar al-Assad’s speeches, and how he reacts to real events and verbal messages from external sources.

Year Published:

2014

View Publication

SMA Publication

Leader Assessment of Bashar al-Assad (Part II)

This report suggests potential types of actions and messages most likely to influence and deter Bashar al-Assad from using force in the ongoing Syrian civil war. This study is based on multidisciplinary analyses of Bashar al-Assad’s speeches, and how he reacts to real events and verbal messages from external sources.

Year Published:

2014

View Publication

SMA Publication

Multi-Method Assessment of ISIL in Iraq and Syria

SOCCENT has requested a short-term effort to assess the appeal of ISIL, specifically to answer, “What makes ISIL so magnetic, inspirational, and deeply resonant with a specific, but large, portion of the Islamic population allowing it to draw recruitment of foreign fighters, money and weapons, advocacy, general popularity, and finally support from other groups such as Boko Haram, several North African Extremist Groups, and other members of the Regional and International Sunni Extremist organizations?” A study was undertaken to understand the psychological, ideological, narrative, emotional, cultural and inspirational (“intangible”) nature of ISIL. This white paper summarizes results from analytical efforts and key results and observations.

Year Published:

2014

View Publication

SMA Publication

Neuro-Psychology/Biology of Influence & Extremism

This report provides the operational and policy communities with a deeper understanding of the unique behavioral and neurobiological factors that underlie political extremism enhanced by interaction in the cyber realm. It addresses the implications of advances in neurobiology and neuropsychology for the way we plan and execute military operations as part of a comprehensive approach to counter violent extremists and the spread of their violent political narratives. The paper focuses on the intersection of emerging cyber technologies and human biology including of both psychological and neurobiological dimensions of behavior. For the purposes of this white paper, we will refer to these two dimensions as cyberpsychology and cyberneurobiology respectively.

Year Published:

2013

View Publication

SMA Publication

A Multi-Layer Assessment of Terrorism Current & Future

This report marries contemporary social science theory, applied research, and operational experience to provide a range of perspectives on terrorism to challenge the reader to ask better, more relevant questions.

Year Published:

2013

View Publication

SMA Publication

7th Annual SMA Conference - What Now, What Next?

The 7th Annual Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) Conference was held at Joint Base Andrews from 13-14 November 2013. The conference was focused on global megatrends and their implications in all spheres of national security. It is no exaggeration to state that the world today is a very different place than it was barely 12 years ago when the war against al Qaida and its affiliates began. As we move forward, continuing advances in various spheres such as the sociotechnical world will present both challenges and opportunities. The conference examined these and related themes and highlighted new insights from the social and neurosciences.

Year Published:

2013

View Publication

SMA Publication

Neuroscience Mobilization and Radicalization

Radicalization is a complex phenomenon informed by various disciplines. The social sciences have provided planners and operators with an understanding of the ‘who’, ‘what’, and more recently the ‘how’ of radicalization. The neuroscience community is working to expand the understanding of ‘why.’ It is essential that planners and operators, who are often on the front line of counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency campaigns, have a deeper understanding of the why and how radicalization occurs. With a better understanding of the ‘why’ aspect of radicalization, planners, operators, and social scientists can move beyond purely correlative work. This report offers insights from these various fields in an easily accessible format for the operational and planning communities.

Year Published:

2012

View Publication

SMA Publication

Cyber-Neurobiology and Psychology on Extremism

These reports will provide the operational and policy communities with a deeper understanding of the unique behavioral and neurobiological factors that underlie political extremism, specifically in the cyber realm. There are three volumes contained within this series:

Year Published:

2012

View Publication

SMA Publication

Neurobiology Insights on Influence and Extremism

These reports will provide the operational and policy communities with a deeper understanding of the unique behavioral and neurobiological factors that underlie political extremism, specifically in the cyber realm. There are three volumes contained within this series:

Year Published:

2012

View Publication

SMA Publication

5th Annual SMA Conference - State/Non-State Actors

The 5th Annual Strategic Multi-layer Assessment (SMA) Conference was held at the National Institutes of Health in Bethesda, Maryland from 29-30 November 2011. The SMA program is prioritized by the Joint Staff and executed by ASD (R&E) RFD. The focus of the SMA Conference was on influence strategies of state and non-state actors as well as the impact of the social and neurobiological sciences on key aspects of national security. The conference also hosted special sessions on geospatial applications, influence and deterrence in cyber space, and complex adaptive systems. Each session was designed to draw on diverse perspectives and insights from across the United States Government (USG), industry, and academia as well as from around the globe.

Year Published:

2011

View Publication

SMA Publication

Attribute Tradeoff Model (ATOM) for Force Posturing

Given New Start, the Administration’s interest in “nuclear zero” and a budget-constrained environment, analysts are likely to receive greater numbers of requests for comparison of the capacity of various force postures and structures to achieve nuclear policy goals. At present, no theoretically grounded and systematic method exists for comparing how well specific (attribute- based) force postures support specific policy objectives. In the nuclear context, the central policy objectives identified by the Concepts and Analysis of Nuclear Strategy CANS project are strategic stability, counter proliferation, deterrence, assurance and defeat.

Year Published:

2011

View Publication

SMA Publication

Influencing Violent Extremists: Focus on Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)

In 2010 the Strategic Multi-Layer Assessment (SMA) office saw a need to bring academics, practitioners, and individuals from all branches of the United States government together to discuss the current research and debate issues surrounding extremist violence: Defining a Strategic Campaign for Working with Partners to Counter and Delegitimize Violent Extremism (CVE) and the Neurobiology of Political Violence. The findings from the two conferences clearly indicated that a detailed examination of a violent extremist organization from a multi- method approach was required in order to begin down the path of understanding.

Year Published:

2011

View Publication

SMA Publication

From the Mind to the Feet: Assessing the Perception-to-Intent-to-Action Dynamic

The purpose of From the Mind to the Feet is to open a much deeper dialogue about gauging intent than currently exists ei- ther in operational or academic arenas. It is intended to serve military and civilian defense leaders, deterrence and policy planners, and practitioners with a review of the basic concepts and state-of-the-art understanding of intent. It is organized into two sections: operational and academic perspectives on intent.

Year Published:

2011

View Publication

SMA Publication

Countering Violent Extremism: Scientific Methods & Strategies (2011 Edition)

If there were a simple solution for countering violent extremism, a solution would have been found centuries ago. Countering violent extremism successfully requires a balanced approach between security-related strategies and initiatives and those that address the underlying motivations and causes for participation in, and support of, a violent extremist organization (VEO). These strategies and initiatives need to be based on nuanced understanding of the various aspects of violent extremism—not only the environments that are likely to spawn violent extremism and sympathetic supporters, but also

Year Published:

2011

View Publication

SMA Publication

Protecting Homeland from Int'l & Domestic Terrorism

It would be comforting to be able to find some constants, some footholds in our understanding of terrorism. It is, in fact, the element of mystery as to what drives people to collective violence that makes us uncomfortable -- that fills us with terror. Researchers, policy makers, those who must combat terrorism, and the public hope for some simple formula for radicalization, a program or set of programs that will prevent groups of people from deliberately targeting other people in order to meet their needs (political, economic, social, etc). There is no magic formula within this paper collection, but there are a variety of perspectives that, either in isolation or when integrated, provide new ways to think about terrorism and potentially to inform decisions that will abate this global phenomenon, not exacerbate it.

Year Published:

2010

View Publication

SMA Publication

PAKAF Rich Contextual Understanding of COIN

The Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) program provides planning support to COCOMs and warfighters. The program coordinates with the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, and STRATCOM to support global mission analysis and to develop new analytic capabilities in support of specific tasking. These analytic capabilities seek to orient the commander to a decision for action. SMA develops multi-disciplined, multi-organizational teams for specific projects. It emphasizes the integration of human, social, cultural, behavioral, and physical sciences factors through participation of sociologists, anthropologists, economists, and physicist/engineers as well as universities, non-governmental organizations, and various interagency partners. SMA efforts produce focused, multi-disciplined strategic and technical assessments as well as documentation, training and education in the application of newly developed analytic tools.</p>,

Year Published:

2010

View Publication

SMA Publication

Counter and Delegitimize Violent Extremism

Dr. Hriar Cabayan, OSD, welcomed the participants on behalf of the Department of Defense (DoD), the State Department (DoS), and the RAND Corporation to the Defining a Strategic Campaign for Working with Partners to Counter and Delegitimize Violent Extremism workshop held from 19-20 May 2010 at Gallup World Headquarters in Washington, DC. The workshop focused on strategic communications and violent extremism and was designed to inform decision makers and was not intended as a forum for policy discussion. The workshop emerged from an SMA- and AFRL-sponsored white paper entitled Protecting the Homeland from International and Domestic Terrorism for Counter-radicalization and Disengagement. As the white paper was being written, it came to Dr Cabayan’s attention that Dr. Paul Davis at the RAND Corporation was writing an integrative literature review on the subject. The RAND report was entitled Simple Models to Explore Deterrence and More General Influence in the War with Al-Qaeda. Building on that, CAPT Wayne Porter wrote a paper on the strategic campaign to counter and delegitimize violent extremism, which resulted in the genesis of this workshop.

Year Published:

2010

View Publication

SMA Publication

Neurobiology Insights on Political Violence

The Neurobiology of Political Violence: New Tools, New Techniques workshop hosted by the National Institutes of Health (NIH), United States Strategic Command (STRATCOM), the Joint Staff, and the Strategic Multilayer Assessment Office (OSD) brought together nearly 80 representatives of government, academia, and industry in Bethesda, MD from 1-2 December 2010. The workshop facilitated a broad discussion of the current state of the art within the related fields of neuroscience, neurobiology, and social psychology as it relates to deterring political violence. While most panelists emphasized the prematurity of applying current research to real world problems within the national security and homeland defense space, they all agreed that the tools of neuroscience and related fields would serve to better inform current deterrence and messaging strategies.

Year Published:

2010

View Publication

SMA Publication

Afghanistan Helmand Province Deep Dive

The objective of Helmand Deep Dive Development and Governance Workshop was to examine academic works and newly generated data and models and to develop guidelines and recommendations for low-cost development project implementation. The Helmand Deep Dive effort focused on water, governance, reconstruction, and job creation.

Year Published:

2009

View Publication

SMA Publication

Information Challenges in Federated Analysis

The Overcoming Information Challenge in Federated Analysis: from Concepts to Practice workshop, held on 27-28 August 2008, was convened in response to requests from US Special Operations Command and US Strategic Command, Lieutenant General Carter F. Ham, Director of Operations, J-3, Joint Staff. The workshop is part of an effort to develop national-level capability to identify and anticipate the action of Violent Non-State Actors (VNSA) with regard to their intent and capability to acquire, build, store, employ, deploy, or supply weapons of mass destruction (WMD). In support of this effort, the workshop was sponsored by a multiagency team and hosted at the Directed Technologies Incorporated (DTI) facility in Arlington, Virginia.

Year Published:

2008

View Publication

SMA Publication

Anticipating Rare Events of Terrorism and WMD

This white paper covers topics related to the field of anticipating/forecasting specific categories of “rare events” such as acts of terror, use of a weapon of mass destruction, or other high profile attacks. It is primarily meant for the operational community in DoD, DHS, and other USG agencies. It addresses three interrelated facets of the problem set:

Year Published:

2008

View Publication

SMA Publication

The New Horizons in Bioterrorism Workshop

The objective of the New Horizons in Bioterrorism workshop, held on 11-12 August 2008 in Arlington, Virginia, was to explore existing and future developments in bioterrorism through the elicitation and generation of adversary courses of action (ACOAs) and associated indicators. Ten bioterrorism subject matter experts (SMEs) were invited to explore bioterrorism indicators, plots, and capabilities through 2015. The workshop addressed both existing and future developments in biological terrorism through the elicitation and generation of bioterrorism ACOAs, as well as indicators associated with those activities. Through the exploration of both existing and potential paradigms, the workshop participants sought to provide the sponsors with a better understanding of the processes and procedures preceding a biological terrorism attack.

Year Published:

2008

View Publication

SMA Publication

Behavior Changes in Pakistan

The experts who contributed to this Quick Look agree on an essential point: Pakistan’s beliefs regarding the threat posed by India are so well-entrenched that they not only serve as the foundation for Pakistan’s foreign policy and security behavior, but represent a substantial barrier to changing it behavior. Christine Fair a Pakistan scholar from Georgetown University is specific as to the target of any influence efforts – difficult as they may be: “the object of influence is not ‘Pakistan;’ rather the Pakistan army’ and so security behavior change if possible requires change in the Army’s cost-benefit calculus. The essential components of Pakistan’s security beliefs are first that India is an existential threat to the state; and second that Pakistan is at a tremendous military and economic disadvantage to its stronger neighbor.

Year Published:

2016

View Publication

SMA Publication

West Africa Exploitable Conditions Model

The West Africa Exploitable Conditions Model (WAECM) is an empirical, concept-based, system-of systems model tailored to the region of West Africa, as defined by USAFRICOM’s interactive AOR map (https://www.africom.mil/military-presence). Developed from the AFRICOM Exploitable Conditions Model (AECM), it identifies various variables or factors (nodes) and their linkages through direct connections to one another (edges), representing the complex conditions and dynamics of the OE in West Africa.

Year Published:

2025

View Publication

SMA Publication

Conceptualizing the Deterrence of Terrorism in the Era of Strategic Competition

Deterring terrorism literature began as a reaction following the events of September 11, 2001. Since that time, there has been fairly robust research that applied deterrence theory to terrorism, terrorists, and violent non-state actors in general. This paper explores both the innovations and pitfalls of deterring terrorism scholarship while arguing for conceptual precision in defining levels of analysis as well as the alignment of influence mechanisms and desired outcomes when thinking about deterrence as applied to countering terrorism. This paper begins with a summary of the existent literature on deterring terrorism, focused on theoretical reconceptualization and expansion of deterrence theory as scholars attempted to apply the deterrence framework to terrorism.

Year Published:

2024

View Publication

SMA Publication

SMA Prior Work in the Information Environment: An Annotated Bibliography

The current SMA project, Integrating Information in Joint Operations (IIJO), builds on a strong foundation of prior SMA work on influence and information operations. The themes underlying the research reflect shifting priorities as SMA has responded to requests ranging counterterrorism to deterrence to great power competition.

Year Published:

2020

View Publication

SMA Publication

Key Factors Affecting Black Swans and Gray Rhinos in the USCENTCOM AOR

NSI, Inc. interviewed seven subject matter experts and conducted additional background research in support of its analyses on Black Swans, Gray Rhinos, and current thinking about key factors and variables not typically included in political stability models (e.g., climate variables, the influence of illicit networks).

Year Published:

2020

View Publication

SMA Publication

Assessment of Strategic Implications of Population Dynamics in the Central Region—Integration Report: Radicalization

At the request of United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), SMA initiated a study to understand the strategic implications of destabilizing population dynamics within the Central Region. The effort examined drivers of instability in the region emerging from radicalization, great power competition, state-level instability, and black swan scenarios. This report integrates the research conducted by the teams listed on the front cover in response to USCENTCOM’s questions about great power competition. This report is intended to be a succinct, easily navigable representation of the exceptional work by the collective SMA team. Please click on the links embedded in the report to go directly to the research studies.

Year Published:

2020

View Publication

SMA Publication

Summary of Previous Radicalization Work

This publication was released as part of the SMA project, “CENTCOM Regional and Population Dynamics in the Central Region.” For more information regarding this project, please click here.

Year Published:

2020

View Publication

SMA Publication

A Strategic Analysis of Violent Extremist Organizations in the United States Central Command Area of Responsibility

In this study, our research team examines the organizational sophistication, leadership, and tactical patterns of five high-priority Violent Extremist Organizations (VEOs) operating in the United States Central Command Area of Responsibility (USCENTCOM). The five VEOs include Hay’at Tahrir al- Sham (HTS), Islamic State of Iraq and Levant (ISIL), the Islamic State – Sinai Province (IS-SP), Jaish al-Adl, and Lebanese Hezbollah. We draw from both the leadership for the Extreme and Dangerous for Innovative Results project and the Global Terrorism Database to examine the organizational sophistication, leadership, and tactical patterns of each of the five VEOs. Our findings indicate that ISIL continues to pose the greatest threat to US interests in the CENTCOM AOR. In the near future, however, HTS and Lebanese Hezbollah may pose greater threats depending on dynamic actions.

Year Published:

2020

View Publication

SMA Publication

Deradicalization in History and Psychology: A Selective Review of the Literature

Governments continue to pour money into deradicalization programs with the goal of rehabilitating violent extremists. Are there lessons in psychological theory and research, and in historical examples, from which current-day programs could benefit?

Year Published:

2020

View Publication

SMA Publication

Preventing Radicalization among Internally Displaced People in Syria and Iraq

There are tremendous numbers of internally displaced people (IDPs) in Syria and Iraq as a consequence of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). The IDPs are a mix of people; men, women, children and those who are radicalized into ISIS ideology and those who are not.

Year Published:

2020

View Publication

SMA Publication

Young People Aged 0-17: Neuroscience and Cognition to Break Cycles of Radicalization

[B1] How do we break the cycle of radicalization, particularly with children who know no other social system/model of governance? Are there possible graduated steps to deradicalization, i.e., judicial efforts, penal efforts, religious efforts, familial efforts, treatment efforts, that can be applied?

Year Published:

2020

View Publication

SMA Publication

Affording New Futures: The Neuroscience and Cognition of Reintegration and Reconciliation

[B4] How do you reintegrate radicalized people back into society? Both Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have centers focussed on this problem. What should the international community do with people who cannot be reintegrated into society? Are there lessons from other regions on reintegration and reconciliation that could be applied to the central region?

Year Published:

2020

View Publication

SMA Publication

Child's Play: Cooperative Games as Tools of Deradicalization

Research on radicalization is more robust theoretically than research on deradicalization. While there are several workable theoretical systems explaining radicalization, no theory of deradicalization exists (Koehler, 2017).

Year Published:

2020

View Publication

SMA Publication

Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Futures Study with an Assessment of Syrian Refugee Camp Radicalization Dynamics

At the request of the United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), the Joint Staff Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) conducted a study to understand the strategic implications of destabilizing population dynamics within the Central Region. The SMA considered drivers of instability in the region to include long-term internally displaced persons and refugees, spread of radical ideologies and extremism, great power competition, disruptive non-state actors, and the potential for “black swan” scenarios.

Year Published:

2020

View Publication

SMA Publication

Dealing with Radicalization in IDP Camps

The Middle Eastern region of the USCENTCOM area of responsibility (AOR) currently has approximately 20 million displaced persons, many of whom live in camps (see NSI Reachback question B3 response). These people have been uprooted, lost their livelihoods, and in many cases experienced severe trauma. These stresses place them at risk of radicalization as their frustrations and grievances increase with time. Research was conducted on counter-radicalization and deradicalization programs appropriate for use in refugee camps, returning a broad range of counter-radicalization measures, and screening and segregation protocols. Their validity, respective pros and cons, and implementation considerations are reported here. Determining the appropriate measures for protecting refugees, building community resilience, and triaging individuals who would most benefit from deradicalization programs can inform how USCENTCOM can take action, or support organizations that are engaged with deradicalization in refugee camps.

Year Published:

2020

View Publication

SMA Publication

Reintegrating the Radicalized: Challenges, Lessons Learned, and How to Overcome Barriers

We begin by defining reintegration and distinguishing it from other concepts with which it is sometimes conflated. Reintegration is often discussed in the context of disengagement, demobilization, deradicalization, the related literature, which leads to ambiguity regarding their conceptual boundaries (Crowell, 2017; Horgan, 2008; Monahan, 2012; Marsden, 2015). For the purposes of this discussion, we define reintegration as a process by which ex-combatants or associates assume functional roles in society.

Year Published:

2020

View Publication

SMA Publication

Responsibility for Displaced Civilians and Effective Voices for Preventing Radicalization

Host countries, along with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and non-governmental organizations (NGOs), have the primary responsibility for the management and ongoing care of refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs).

Year Published:

2020

View Publication

SMA Publication

Defying the Cycle of Violence Among Children of War

In advance of the Turkish incursion into Syria last October, warnings about the security risks of “the children of ISIS” and radicalized youths in internally displaced persons (IDP) and refugee camps in Syria and Iraq increased. Media outlets reported that women in Al Hol camp in northeast Syria were setting up their own “mini Islamic State” within the camp and terrorizing other residents in the already under-resourced camp (Sancha, 2019). The shredding of ISIS’s physical caliphate and the horrifying realization of the depths of derangement of ISIS’s treatment of Cubs and Pearls of the Caliphate—young children who serve as perpetrators, witnesses, and victims of the horrors—have raised inevitable questions about the appropriate security, moral, and legal “next steps” for these children.

Year Published:

2020

View Publication

SMA Publication

Terrorism in the Philippines and Its Influence on Great Powers

The UNO research team examined four active Violent Non-State Actors (VNSAs) and their capacity to disrupt Chinese influence in the Philippines. The four VNSAs include the Abu Sayyaf Group, the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters, the Moro National Liberation Front, and the New People’s Army. Drawing from both the Leadership for the Extreme and Dangerous for Innovative Results project and the Global Terrorism Database, they focused on each VNSA’s organizational and leadership capabilities as well as their tactical patterns between 2012 and 2017. Their findings suggest that, of the four VNSAs, the New People’s Army has both the motivation and resources to spoil Chinese influence in the Philippines.

Year Published:

2020

View Publication

SMA Publication

Violent Extremist Organizations (VEOs): The Strategic Importance of Defining the Enemy

In this paper, as part of SMA’s Invited Perspectives series, Mr. Vern Liebl indicates that ‘violent extremist organization’ (VEO) may not be an accurate term for describing modern terrorist entities. To illustrate this point, Mr. Liebl first provides a brief history of how the term ‘VEO’ entered US defense, intelligence, and law enforcement officials’ lexicon and became commonly used. He then defines what the term ‘VEO’ means and questions whether it still appropriately applies to the organizations that have been labelled as such (namely Hezbollah, Al Qaeda, and the Islamic State).

Year Published:

2019

View Publication

SMA Publication

Jammu and Kashmir Reach Back: Media Analysis of Extremist Activities in Indian and Pakistani News

The following study explored how extremist organizations may take advantage of the Kashmir crisis; it identifies prominent extremist organizations and stakeholder interests reported in Indian and Pakistani news media. Data was collected from 54 Indian and Pakistani news sources from May 16th to August 16th, 2019; a total of 437 articles were analyzed.

Year Published:

2019

View Publication

SMA Publication

12th Annual SMA Conference- The Evolving Anatomy of Conflict in a Dynamically Changing World

The 12th Annual SMA Conference, entitled “The Evolving Anatomy of Conflict in a Dynamically Changing World,” was held 21-22 May 2019 at the General Jacob E. Smart Conference Center at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland. The conference theme was defined as:

Year Published:

2019

View Publication

SMA Publication

Influential Violent Extremist Organizational Partners of Iran

This paper addresses two key Violent Extremist Organizations (VEOs) with close ties to the Iran regime. More specifically, we examine the organizational and leadership characteristics of the Badr Brigades and Kata’ib Hezbollah (KH) using the Leadership for the Extreme and Dangerous for Innovative Results (LEADIR) project. While much of the discussion on Iranian influence focuses on Hezbollah or the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, we believe both the Badr Brigades and KH warrant attention for at least three reasons. First, both VEOs are highly sophisticated with the operational capabilities to strike US and coalition targets. Second, the leaders of both VEOs function as Partners of Iran and their decision-making reflects the strategic vision of the Iranian regime. Third, in times of increased conflict, both will have increased opportunity to strike our coalition forces currently in the Iraq region.

Year Published:

2019

View Publication

SMA Publication

On the Horizon: Security Challenges at the Nexus of State and Non-State Actors and Emerging/Disruptive Technologies

Innovation and new technologies have many positive attributes and provide significant improvement to humanity, much that is likely unforeseen at the time of initial discovery. The unpredictability of the technology trajectories can lead to significant negative consequences. This white paper aims to discuss the massive leaps in innovation and understand what this means for national security.

Year Published:

2019

View Publication

SMA Publication

Negotiated Settlement in Afghanistan: Elements of a Grand Bargain

It is not yet clear whether reconciliation in Afghanistan is possible. But what has become increasingly clear is that certain critical elements must be addressed and overcome before any semblance of longterm stability in Afghanistan can emerge. This report is structured into three main sections: 1) contextualizing the current pressure toward reconciliation in terms of what Afghans want, 2) breaking down a potential negotiated settlement into its essential component parts, and 3) looking at some of the spoilers that make this process particularly difficult in Afghanistan.

Year Published:

2019

View Publication

SMA Publication

Influencing Violent Extremist Organizations and Their Supporters without Adverse Side Effects

In developing strategy to affect violent extremist organizations (VEOs) it is useful to take a “system perspective” to characterize the different elements of a VEO and the larger environment in which the VEO operates. It is also useful to think about an influence spectrum that includes efforts at one end to co-opt or induce and, at the other end, actions taken to punish now so as to deter later. Strategy, then, takes actions to promote different kinds of influences on different elements of the system with the intention of achieving desired effects, avoiding or mitigating unintended side effects, and being in a position to exploit unintended but favorable side effects.

Year Published:

2011

View Publication

SMA Publication

Towards a Framework for Dealing with Potential Unintended Consequences of Influence Activities

The purpose of this project was to gain a better understanding of how United States Government (USG) actions influence violent extremist organizations (VEOs). It is important to understand how actions taken by the government to suppress a VEO might result in negative, unforeseen consequences such as making a VEO stronger or increasing its public support.

Year Published:

2011

View Publication

SMA Speaker Series (Tagged: Terrorism)

SMA Speaker Series

Nonstate Special Operations: Capabilities and Effects

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Craig Whiteside (US Naval War College) and Ian C. Rice (Naval Postgraduate School) as part of its SMA General Speaker Series.

July 2, 2025

Ian C. Rice and Craig Whiteside

SMA Speaker Series

Measuring Success: Reconsidering the Use of Data for Evaluating Military Operations and Strategy

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Barnett Koven (University of Maryland START) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM Speaker Series. Dr. Koven began the session by presenting some of the problems evident in data analyses. He argued that removing erroneous data is difficult, automated analyses are still devoid of theory and human-like cognition, and we often apply the wrong theory when performing data analyses. Dr. Koven proceeded to explore this last problem further.

April 11, 2018

Barnett S. Koven

SMA Speaker Series

Emerging Strategic & Geopolitical Challenges: Operational Implications for US Combatant Commands

SMA hosted a panel with Mr. Michael A. Clark (Director for Acquisition and Technology (J9), USCYBERCOM), Ms. Kayse Jansen (Branch Chief, Deterrence Analysis and Outreach, Plans and Policy Directorate, USSTRATCOM/J5), Mr. James “JJ” Jenista (Air Force Civilian, Joint Training, Exercise, and Wargaming Directorate (J7), USNORTHCOM & NORAD), Mr. Robert C. Jones (Senior Strategist, USSOCOM J5-JSOU Donovan Integration Group), Mr. Jimmy Krakar (Academic Coordinator, USEUCOM), Ms. Lesley Kucharski (Analyst, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory), Dr. Robert M. Toguchi (Chief, Concepts Division, Force Modernization Directorate (FMD), USASOC), Col David W. Walker (Policy Division Chief, USCENTCOM CCJ5), and Ms. Michele K. Wolfe (Senior Operations Research Analyst, USAFRICOM) as part of its SMA General Speaker Series.

January 25, 2023

Clark, M. (Director for Acquisition and Technology (J9), USCYBERCOM); Jansen, K. (Branch Chief, Deterrence Analysis and Outreach, Plans and Policy Directorate, USSTRATCOM/J5); Jenista, J. (Air Force Civilian, Joint Training, Exercise, and Wargaming Directorate (J7), USNORTHCOM & NORAD); Jones, R. (Senior Strategist, USSOCOM J5-JSOU Donovan Integration Group); Krakar, J. (Academic Coordinator, USEUCOM); Kucharski, L. (Analyst, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory); Toguchi, R. (Chief, Concepts Division, Force Modernization Directorate (FMD), USASOC); Walker, D. (Policy Division Chief, USCENTCOM CCJ5); Wolfe, M. (Senior Operations Research Analyst, USAFRICOM)

SMA Speaker Series

Globally Critical Infrastructure: The Unique Risks and Challenges

Certain infrastructures are not only important to individual nations but also entire regions and the global system. Globally critical infrastructure (GCI) can be located within, across, and outside state borders.

April 1, 2025

Zak Kallenborn

SMA Speaker Series

Defending the United States Against Critical Infrastructure Attacks: A Critical Infrastructure Survey and Hypothetical Campaign of Cascading Impacts

Stable and secure critical infrastructure—systems or assets essential to society—serve as a key component of national security and daily life in the United States.

February 4, 2025

Tom Wingfield and Bridget Kane

SMA Speaker Series

Countering Growing Violent Extremism in West Africa

Violence perpetrated by extremist groups in the Sahel has increased during the last several years alongside a rise in the number and frequency of military coups.

December 19, 2024

‍Dr. Daniel Eizenga

SMA Speaker Series

Statelet of Survivors: The Making of a Semi-Autonomous Region in Northeast Syria: US Options in the New Phase of the Syrian Conflict

The political overtures made by Turkish President Erdogan to normalize relations with the Assad regime are reshaping the dynamics of the Syrian civil war.

August 28, 2024

Dr. Amy Austin Holmes

SMA Speaker Series

Irregular Warfare in Strategic Competition and Gray Zones: Prosecuting Authoritarian Subversion and Exploitative Use of Corruption and Criminality to Weaken Democracy

US adversaries, including China, Russia, and Iran, aim to diminish Western influence while expanding their own in many countries. They employ various strategies, such as leveraging proxies, transnational organized crime and kleptocrats, which can undermine democracies and the rule of law.

August 22, 2024

David Luna

SMA Speaker Series

Climate Change as an Indirect Contributor to Terrorism

Climate change is now widely recognized as a significant national security threat multiplier that exacerbates existing state and regional vulnerabilities, increasing the likelihood of conflict. Environmental stress intensifies human, economic, and political instability, particularly in countries in Africa and East Asia.

August 21, 2024

Madeline Romm

SMA Speaker Series

Why, What, and How Free Societies Must Develop Effective Deterrence of Actors Intending Bad Ends Given Our GenAI Era

The advent of widespread internet access and the emergence of new forms of generative AI (GenAI) have broken down the physical boundaries that once separated international and intranational communities.

March 13, 2024

Dr. David A. Bray

SMA Speaker Series

How do Non-State Entities Taking Actions in a Crisis or Conflict Impact Escalation and Deterrence?

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Anna Péczeli (LLNL) as part of its SMA “Strategic Deterrence Frameworks” (SDF) Speaker Series.

December 14, 2023

Dr. Anna Péczeli

SMA Speaker Series

Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis (ABM) and its Ties to Hamas

Wilayat Sinai (WS), formerly known as Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis (ABM), is an Egyptian-based extremist group that is active in the Sinai Peninsula. The group seeks to influence the region’s politics and establish a state of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).

July 12, 2023

Dr. Zana Gul (University of Stirling)

SMA Speaker Series

Insights on 20 Years of Counterinsurgency Research

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Elizabeth Radziszewski (University of Maryland, National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START)) as part of its SMA General Speaker Series.Through the 2000s and 2010s, terrorism was a prevalent topic of research among academics, creating a deep pool of peer-reviewed sources. A group of researchers from the University of Maryland, National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) conducted a review of literature from the last 20 years on the study of counterinsurgency (COIN). The pool of literature was comprised of mostly peer-reviewed journal articles—such as Small Wars & Insurgencies—75% of which empirically tested models on government effectiveness relating to COIN. The lever of government power most studied in relation to COIN is the use of military forces. Dr. Radziszewski emphasized that understudied levers of government power must be examined further. These levers of power include a) economic, b) diplomatic, c) legal, and d) financial tools.

April 18, 2023

Dr. Elizabeth Radziszewski (University of Maryland START, Irregular Warfare and Conflict Assessment Group)

SMA Speaker Series

Why Extremist Insurgencies Spread: Insights from the Sahel

Violent extremist organizations (VEOs) operating in the Sahel have perpetrated long-lasting insurgencies for more than a decade, causing widespread loss of life and regional instability. These insurgencies have also weakened regional governments’ ability to provide basic goods and services to their citizens. Dr. Boukhars stated that West African states are preparing for their own insurgencies, blaming their proximity to the Sahel region and the worsening insecurity and violent extremism there. He emphasized that a contributing factor to the contagion of violent extremism in Africa is countries’ unwillingness to be introspective. States frequently blame their stability issues on their proximity to others with existing insurgencies. However, internal dynamics that weaken government trust and aggravate social grievances are strong antecedents of insurgencies themselves. Efforts by governments to cut the financial flows of VEOs (e.g., closing certain markets and restricting the movements of pastoralists), for example, usually hurt their own civilians’ livelihoods.

January 10, 2023

Dr. Anouar Boukhars (Africa Center for Strategic Studies, National Defense University; McDaniel College)

SMA Speaker Series

Modeling Exploitable Conditions in the 21st Century Strategic Environment

The creation of a computational model that encapsulates the increasingly complex and overwhelming world as multiple systems that can be measured empirically could have strong implications for civilian and military decision makers. NSI Inc. and SMA are currently working on such a model that is expanding on prior research conducted by TRADOC G-2. NSI has expanded on TRADOC’s original 24 exploitable conditions to create the Global Exploitable Conditions Model (GECM) as part of the Anticipating the Future Operational Environment (AFOE) project for the US Joint Staff. Dr. Kuznar stated that while GECM is supported by a large corpus of qualitative research, a computational model has been built to empirically test it through network and system dynamics. GECM contains 17 subsystems that are comprised of 124 nodes and 829 edges where nodes connect. This model is the starting point for all of NSI’s research during the AFOE project.

November 30, 2022

Dr. Lawrence Kuznar (Chief Cultural Sciences Officer, NSI)

SMA Speaker Series

Barriers to Strategic Success in US Special Operations Forces Counterterrorism

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Katy A. Lindquist (Principal Research Scientist, NSI) and Dr. Barnett S. Koven (Data Science Manager, Deloitte Consulting; Adjunct Faculty Member, Joint Special Operations University) as part of its SMA SOCOM Speaker Series.

February 21, 2022

Dr. Katie A. Lindquist and Dr. Barnett S. Koven

SMA Speaker Series

Unraveling the Resilience of Jihadist Insurgencies: Lessons from Mosul & the Islamic State and The Long Jihad

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Haroro Ingram (George Washington University) and Mr. Omar Mohammed (Lecturer, Middle East History and Cultural Heritage Diplomacy, Sciences Po University) as part of its SMA General Speaker Series.

November 18, 2021

Omar Mohammed and Haroro J. Ingram

SMA Speaker Series

Evaluation of Counter Violent Extremism Campaigns in Nigeria, Indonesia, and the Philippines

SMA hosted a speaker session as a part of its SMA INDOPACOM/AFRICOM Speaker Series. The panelists included Dr. Todd Helmus (RAND), Dr. Elizabeth Bodine-Baron (RAND), and Dr. James Marrone (RAND).Dr. Helmus began the presentation by emphasizing the importance of counter violent extremism (CVE) campaigns in the fight against violent extremism. In his recent work for RAND, he and colleagues supported and evaluated CVE campaigns in Nigeria, Indonesia, and the Philippines, specifically. He provided an overview of the structure of the study they conducted before turning the floor over to Dr. Marrone.

November 15, 2020

Elizabeth Bodine-Baron, Todd C. Helmus, and James V. Marrone

SMA Speaker Series

In the Eye of the Storm: Managing Terrorism and Asymmetric Threats During the COVID-19 Pandemic

SMA hosted a speaker session as a part of its SMA UK MoD Speaker Series, entitled “In the Eye of the Storm: Managing Terrorism and Asymmetric Threats During the COVID-19 Pandemic.” The speakers included Prof. William Braniff (Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START), University of Maryland), Mr. Chris Holt (CHC Global), and Mr. Jerry Smith (CHC Global).Prof. Braniff began the presentation with a conversation on pandemic fatigue and its role in cognitive dissonance in the coming months. As winter approaches, leaders and civilians alike need to be contemplating how best to prepare for the potentially increased impact of the pandemic, Prof. Braniff argued. He then stated that the insurance industry offers a useful perspective to leadership and can assist in examinations and preparations for the coming winter. Government spending is a problem, according to Prof. Braniff, so government preparedness is always at risk and is not inherently sustainable—a disadvantage that the insurance industry may be able to assist with. Currently, the US’s biggest vulnerability is towards influence operations conducted by our adversaries, who aim to use disinformation to control a given population. More broadly, the world is struggling with the dilemma caused by the devolution of the information age into the misinformation and disinformation age. Because immediate science was unable to provide sufficient answers to questions regarding COVID-19, Prof. Braniff, explained that uncertainty opened the door to a wave of extremist and conspiratorial ideologies. Extremists and conspiratorialists have used the lack of knowledge surrounding the virus to their advantage by promoting unrealistic information and ideas, ultimately leading to internal dissent. Prof. Braniff stated that the insurance perspective is useful in combatting this challenge due to its recognition that bad things will happen, its developed mechanisms that respond to recurring problems, its financial incentives for good behavior, its transferring of some risk from the public to the private sector, and its ability to incentivize the collection and analysis of more and better data.

October 15, 2020

Bill Braniff, Chris Holt, and Jerry Smith

SMA Speaker Series

Spoiler Alert: Managing the Threat of the Islamic State During Great Power Competition

SMA hosted a speaker series with Dr. Craig Whiteside (US Naval War College) and Dr. Haroro Ingram (George Washington University) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM Speaker Series. Dr. Whiteside began by discussing the global influence and resilience of the Islamic State, highlighting its continued presence despite the death of its physical caliphate. He also stated that in the age of great power competition between the US, China, and Russia, many scholars think small ideological competitors will no longer be significant. However, Dr. Whiteside argued that this has not been the case thus far. He explained that the security environment is not bipolar, and the Islamic State is continuing to redefine and shape local conflicts to serve its larger goals. Furthermore, he claimed that the Islamic State will weaponize a change in the international global order, if it is altered from the way we know it today. Dr. Whiteside continued by describing the Islamic State as a transnational enterprise and discussing the global network that stems from this empire. He emphasized that the Islamic State has learned to operate this global enterprise quite effectively over time; it has become well-organized, well-financed, and technologically savvy. However, in contrast, Dr. Whiteside identified two strategic dilemmas that the Islamic State faces. These include itslack of a master plan and most of its operations’ dependency on waiting for the right opportunity to strike. To conclude his remarks, Dr. Whiteside discussed the importance of understanding insurgency doctrine and how it influences the Islamic State’s strategy on three pillars: continual stabs, cumulative attrition, and consolidation/empowerment. Dr. Ingram continued the speaker session by discussing how the Islamic State’s simple strategic principles, operational approaches, and ideological concepts have evolved over time, both in concept and in practice. He argued that understanding these things is the best way to project assessments of the Islamic State into the future and that observing its history helps one develop nuanced understandings of its ideology that may aid these assessments. Dr. Ingram then provided three main ideas to take away from the presentation. He first argued that great power competition matters to the Islamic State, based on its rhetoric, how it thinks of global issues, and how it pursues its goals. Secondly, he suggested that anti-Islamic State efforts are complementary with great power competition when considering global partnerships and allied support. To conclude, Dr. Ingram argued that American leadership matters on the global stage with regards to maintaining pressure on the Islamic State and building global partnerships to counter its influence.

August 27, 2020

Craig A. Whiteside, Ph.D. and Dr. Haroro J. Ingram

SMA Speaker Series

SMA CENTCOM Panel Discussion on Radicalization (Part I)

SMA hosted a panel discussion as a part of its SMA CENTCOM Population Dynamics Speaker Series. The panelists included Dr. Skye Cooley (Oklahoma State University), Ms. Nicole (Peterson) Omundson (NSI, Inc.), Dr. Nicholas Wright (Intelligent Biology), Dr. Sabrina (Pagano) Polansky (NSI, Inc.), Dr. Karl Kaltenthaler (University of Akron), Mr. Ali Jafri (NSI, Inc.), Dr. Lawrence Kuznar (NSI, Inc.) and Mr. Howard Lee (US Army TRADOC).

March 10, 2020

Dr. Skye Cooley (Oklahoma State University); Nicole (Peterson) Omundson (NSI, Inc.); Dr. Nicholas Wright (Intelligent Biology); Dr. Sabrina (Pagano) Polansky (NSI, Inc.); Dr. Karl Kaltenthaler (University of Akron); Dr. Lawrence Kuznar (NSI, Inc.); Howard Lee (US Army TRADOC)

SMA Speaker Series

SMA CENTCOM Panel Discussion on Radicalization (Part II)

SMA hosted a panel discussion as a part of its SMA CENTCOM Population Dynamics Speaker Series. The panelists included Dr. David Dorondo (Western Carolina University), Mr. George Popp (NSI, Inc.), Dr. Peter Suedfeld (University of British Columbia), and Mr. Thomas Rieger (NSI, Inc.). The moderator was Ms. Sarah Canna (NSI, Inc.).

March 17, 2020

David R. Dorondo, George Popp, Peter Suedfeld, and Sarah A. Canna

SMA Speaker Series

Antecedents of Organizational Sophistication in Violent Non-State Actors in the USCENTCOM AOR

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Mr. Michael Logan (University of Nebraska, Omaha) as a part of its SMA DHS CAOE Speaker Series. Mr. Logan’s presentation focused on his dissertation, wherein he measured the organizational sophistication of 280 violent non-state actors (VNSAs) in order to determine which present the largest threats. To begin, Mr. Logan defined a VNSA as a distinct organization—not integrated into a formal state structure—that is capable and willing to use violence to pursue its objectives. Although there are six distinct types of VNSAs, Mr. Logan’s research focused on terrorist organizations. He then defined organizational sophistication as the degree to which an organization is centralized, formalized, and specialized. Centralization represents the degree to which decision making within the group is concentrated, formalization represents the extent to which rules and procedures that govern the behavior of the group are present, and specialization represents the degree to which the organization is composed of many, interrelated, coordinated parts. Mr. Logan explained that all of these characteristics regulate the behavior of individuals in an organization. He also stated that organizational sophistication is important because as it increases, so does the VNSA’s sophistication. Moreover, as a VNSA’s aptitude for complex operations and tactics increases, so does its capacity for innovation and its ability to inflict violence/strike hard targets (e.g., military, police, government) and soft targets (e.g., civilians, religious groups). After discussing his methodology and terrorist organization selection criteria, Mr. Logan presented his dissertation results that are relevant to USCENTCOM’s area of responsibility. He examined 72 terrorist groups from the region and plotted each on an organizational sophistication continuum. Mr. Logan also found that a VNSA’s lethality increases as its organizational sophistication increases, and actors must have a moderate level of organization in order to carry out attacks on hard targets. Lastly, he determined that organizational sophistication is an observable construct in VNSAs, a practical way of examining capabilities of VNSAs, and linked to increasingly complex violence. To conclude, Mr. Logan discussed the benefits of his research from a planner’s perspective, namely that it can help inform potential capabilities of emerging threats, anticipate target selection based on VNSA’s organizational sophistication, and provide an additional tool for prioritization and resource allocation.

January 10, 2020

Gina Ligon and Michael Logan

SMA Speaker Series

Are They "Ticking Time Bombs?" Children and Terrorism

During her brief, Dr. Bloom spoke about the roles of women and children in terrorist networks. She explained that each terrorist group’s methods of exploiting women and children is different. She used al-Qaeda in Iraq as an example, highlighting its use of female suicide bombers as its weapon of choice. Al-Qaeda recognized that women are less likely to be searched at checkpoints, tend to blend in with civilian populations better than men, and often wear long, black Islamic robes that can conceal explosives. For these reasons, al-Qaeda has increased its recruitment of women. Dr. Bloom proceeded to provide five primary reasons explaining why women willingly join these groups: 1) for redemption, 2) for revenge, 3) to gain respect, 4) because of existing relationships/ties to that organization, and 5) sexual violence and the accompanying honor code. She highlighted that women raped in traditional societies are often funneled into terrorist organizations because they would otherwise face certain death at the hands of their family members. Other women recruited by terrorist organizations are groomed at a young age and married off to group members, so that they can become bombers. Many of these young women are from the Middle East, Dr. Bloom clarified, despite the large amount of media attention and coverage on those hailing from the West. Next, Dr. Bloom spoke about children as targets of recruitment. She stated that ISIS has taken a unique approach regarding the use of children in propaganda. ISIS is one of the few terrorist organizations that has placed children front and center in its propaganda images. Dr. Bloom spoke about how ISIS solicits charismatic children to speak to large audiences, normalizes war among youths, and “brainwashes” them at an early age via specially tailored teaching materials as well. To conclude, Dr. Bloom spoke about the deradicalization of children and women. She highlighted Saboon in Pakistan, which she deemed the “gold standard” for child deradicalization programs, and raised several questions about the futures of the women and children who were once involved in a terrorist group.

January 9, 2020

Mia Bloom

SMA Speaker Series

The Drivers of Grievance and Unrest in the World’s Populations: Understanding Instability, Terrorism, and Migration

During his presentation, Dr. Kuznar discussed his team’s findings regarding the drivers of grievance and unrest among the world’s populations, particularly as they relate to instability, terrorism, and migration. He first spoke about the primary inspiration for his team’s research: SMA’s “Age of Disruption” white paper. This white paper suggests that populations are key battlefields in global power competition, as great powers vie for the allegiance of populations, manipulate the grievances of these populations, and have objectives that can be frustrated by social unrest among these populations. He also stated that the Political Instability Task Force’s (PITF) work on social unrest events and predicting instability inspired his team’s work as well. Next, Dr. Kuznar conveyed that the purpose of NSI’s aggrieved populations project was to anticipate the operational environment from 2019 to 2029 by identifying emerging regional and non-state challenges. This effort was broken up into two phases: a global analysis phase and a country-specific analysis phase. He then presented a notional graph depicting the distribution of social status and wealth of a typical society and explained the concepts of risk aversion and risk acceptance. For the remainder of his brief, Dr. Kuznar discussed his team’s results, beginning with those from his team’s global study, which included the following: 1) Political instability is driven by hunger, risk acceptant elites, the interaction of fuel export and corruption, weak democracy, mountainous terrain, economic isolation, and ethnic division; and 2) migration from undeveloped countries is driven by hunger, a youth bulge, homicide, and political oppression. He concluded by discussing the results of their country-specific study, which included the following: 1) Countries with low inequality, such as Finland, are stable; 2) countries with unusually high levels of inequality, such as Honduras and South Africa, are characterized by extremely high levels of interpersonal violence; and 3) agrarian countries have extremely high levels of inequality and consequently experience unrest in rural areas, which in turn is exacerbated by rural/urban inequalities (Afghanistan, Pakistan, Honduras, Nigeria, and Ethiopia are good examples).

December 20, 2019

Lawrence A. Kuznar

SMA Speaker Series

Mutual Radicalization: How Groups and Nations Drive Each Other to Extremes

Dr. Moghaddam’s brief focused on the topics discussed in his book, entitled Mutual Radicalization: How Groups and Nations Drive Each Other to Extremes. He first explained that there is a collective aspect of radicalization. The process of radicalization involves collective movements wherein an individual is pushed in particular directions irrespective of their individual cognitive processes and judgment. In other words, the group takes over, and individuals can no longer fully think for themselves. He further explained that mutual radicalization can be symmetrical, particularly when it comes to nations that are convinced that destructive conflict is the only way in which they can resolve their issues. Dr. Moghaddam then discussed the three stages within his model of mutual radicalization: 1) group mobilization, 2) extreme in-group cohesion, and 3) agnostic identity transformation. Group mobilization occurs when two groups become increasingly aware of their differences, categorize in- and out-group members in a harsher way, feel injustice and unfairness, and begin to perceive the other group as being not just unfair but evil. Extreme in-group cohesion occurs when there is more aggressive leadership on both sides, greater conformity and obedience, and additional cognitive convergence. Finally, antagonistic identity transformation occurs when each group becomes simply “the group that hates the other group” and takes more extreme actions against the other. Next, Dr. Moghaddam applied his model of mutual radicalization to the situation in Syria. He stated that there are three levels of relationships within Syria: 1) national relationships among Alawite Shiites (the very small minority; includes Bashar al-Assad and his supporters) and among Sunni Arabs (the large majority, ruled by the Shiite minority); 2) local relationships with Syria’s neighbors, such as Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the Kurds; and 3) international relationships with the US, Russia, and China. For the remainder of his brief, Dr. Moghaddam explained how the three stages of mutual radicalization have been reflected during the Syrian civil war.

December 11, 2019

Fathali M. Moghaddam

SMA Speaker Series

ISIS: Past, Present, and Possible Futures Panel Discussion

SMA hosted a panel discussion with Dr. Lawrence Kuznar (NSI, Inc.), Dr. Gina Ligon (University of Nebraska at Omaha), Mr. William Braniff (National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) at the University of Maryland), and Dr. Daveed Gartenstein-Ross (Valens Global) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM Population DynamicsSpeaker Series

December 11, 2019

William Braniff, Daveed Gartenstein-Ross, Lawrence A. Kuznar, and Gina Ligon

SMA Speaker Series

From Isolation to Radicalization: Anti-Muslim Hostility and Support for ISIS in the West

During her brief, Dr. Mitts presented her research, which focuses on extremists’ extensive use of social media and online platforms to interact with others who consume and spread violent extremist content and organize violent activity. Dr. Mitts stated that today, there is a tremendous amount of public data available on extremists’ online behavior. She used this data to explain how social media facilitates violent extremism and to shed light on the drivers of violent extremism in the digital age. Dr. Mitts then presented a few of her primary findings regarding why some individuals living in Western countries begin supporting groups like ISIS. She explained that ISIS propaganda contained many themes appealing to individuals living in Western countries. Moreover, she stated that anti-Muslim hostility may be a factor in driving pro-ISIS radicalization in Western Europe. She elaborated that experiencing discrimination can lead to radicalization and that anti-immigrant hostility inhibits integration, which consequently increases social isolation. Thus, ISIS members may be taking advantage of these tendencies and exploiting anti-Muslim hostility by providing an alternative “virtual community” on social media platforms. Dr. Mitts then discussed the link between “offline” hostility and “online” radicalization. She explained that she used geo-referenced data from CtrlSec on the online behavior of thousands of ISIS sympathizers in France, the UK, Germany, and Belgium in order to determine whether the intensity of anti-Muslim hostility in the “offline” world is linked to “online” pro-ISIS radicalization on Twitter. Through this study, she found that local-level measures of anti-Muslim animosity correlate significantly and substantively with indicators of online radicalization. Furthermore, events stirring anti-Muslim hostility in Europe tend to increase pro-ISIS rhetoric on Twitter, especially in areas where hostility is high. To conclude, Dr. Mitts stated that studying radicalization on social media is likely to become more important over time as extremists continue to misuse online platforms. She also stated that there is untapped potential in combining “online” and “offline” data, social media data do not capture all offline behaviors, and it is still hard to predict when online hate will result in offline violence.

November 13, 2019

Tamar Mitts

SMA Speaker Series

The Cognitive Dimension of Violent Extremist Organizations (VEOs)– Al Qaeda, Islamic State, and Hezbollah

During his brief, Mr. Liebl compared and contrasted three violent extremist organizations (VEOs)—Al Qaeda, the Islamic State, and Hezbollah—in order to understand (from members’ perspective) why they engage in violence. To begin, Mr. Liebl explained that the term VEO has never been clearly defined. This led him to question whether the term actually accurately describes Al Qadea, the Islamic State, and/or Hezbollah and, consequently, to conduct the cognitive exploration that he presented. Mr. Liebl then stated that in such a cognitive exploration, it is much more important to examine how the people in these organizations view themselves and what motivates them to join and stay with the group, as opposed to what outsiders call them and how they see them. He explained that some Muslims believe that Allah is telling them to engage in terror and that it is an act of love to propagate the faith against those who do not believe. He further stated that the way in which Westerners look at VEOs must be revised, as it does not capture the necessary fluidity and structure of what they are calling “VEOs.” Moreover, VEOs are dynamic, learning organizations that each need to be examined in different ways. Mr. Liebl proceeded to discuss several inherent cognitive dimensional themes within the three “VEOs,” including identity, worldview, narrative, education and socialization, acquiring and processing information, ways of thinking and perceiving, and assimilation vs. mobilization. He then assessed whether each of these “VEOs” should be categorized as such and suggested that to pious Muslims, Al Qaeda is not an extremist group; it is merely following the word of Allah. Moreover, the Islamic State, although far more violent than Al Qaeda, can also be perceived as a non-extremist group when examined in the context of the history of Islamic conquest and propagation of religion based on Mohammad’s example. Hezbollah, however, is considered by most Muslims to be an extremist organization; therefore, Mr. Liebl classified it as a VEO, though it is much less violent than Al Qaeda and the Islamic State. To conclude, Mr. Liebl drew a comparison between Muslims choosing to join VEOs and Americans choosing to sign up for military service in December of 1941 after the attack on Pearl Harbor, stating that as some Americans will mobilize for the defense of the US, some Muslims will “mobilize” for the “defense” of Islam.

October 23, 2019

Vernie Liebl

SMA Speaker Series

Mosul: The Post-ISIS Landscape

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Mr. Hoshang Waziri (ARTIS International) and Dr. Scott Atran (ARTIS International / University of Michigan) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM Speaker Series.

May 2, 2019

Waziri, H. (ARTIS International)

SMA Speaker Series

Can Nonviolent Responses to Terrorism Provide an Alternative to the Failed War on Terror Paradigm?

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Richard Jackson (University of Otago, New Zealand) as a part of its SMA General Speaker Series.

April 16, 2019

Jackson, R. (University of Otago, New Zealand)

SMA Speaker Series

Driven to Death: An Analysis of 30 Years of Vehicle Ramming

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Yannick Veilleux-Lepage (Georgia State University) as a part of its SMA DHS Speaker Series. Dr. Veilleux-Lepage began by stating that using vehicle ramming attacks (VRAs) is not a new tactic, nor is it limited to individuals of a single ideology.

February 28, 2019

Veilleux-Lepage (Georgia State University)

SMA Speaker Series

Contagious Counterinsurgency: How Civilian Social Networks Shape Military Control

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Dotan Haim (Dartmouth College) as a part of its SMA STRATCOM Speaker Series. During his presentation, Dr. Haim argued that the strength of civilian social networks, as well as the amount of information on government credibility received from the surrounding area, dictate whether counterinsurgency will be effective in a particular locality.

December 18, 2018

Haim, D. (Dartmouth College)

SMA Speaker Series

The Salafi Jihadi Threat to the US from Afghanistan

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Karl Kaltenthaler (University of Akron) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM (Afghanistan) Speaker Series. Dr. Kaltenthaler first outlined his key observations from studying various Salafi Jihadi groups.

October 31, 2018

Kaltenthaler, K. (University of Akron)

SMA Speaker Series

"Tech and Terrorism: Examining the Medium and the Message" AND "Trucks, Knives, Bombs, Whatever: Exploring Pro-Islamic State Instructional Material on Telegram"

Ms. Alexander began by emphasizing the importance of recognizing that organizations have spread ideas by exploiting contemporary media for decades and that this is not a new or shocking approach.

October 19, 2018

Alexander, A. (George Washington University); Clifford, B. (George Washington University)

SMA Speaker Series

Out of the Desert: ISIS's Strategy for a Long War

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Mr. Hassan Hassan (The Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM Speaker Series. During his presentation, Mr. Hassan spoke about how ISIS will likely model its new strategy after its 2008 strategy, which was implemented at a time when the organization did not have a territorial caliphate and operated primarily underground.

October 2, 2018

Hassan, H. (The Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy)

SMA Speaker Series

Documenting the Virtual Caliphates

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Mia Bloom (Georgia State University) as a part of its SMA DHS Speaker Series. Dr. Bloom spoke about her Minerva-funded research, which examines the themes that emerge in ISIS propaganda, the types of propaganda that are distributed, the mediums in which ISIS members communicate with one another, and the methods in which tactical innovations of actions on the battlefield are promoted within ISIS. She explained that ISIS’s primary methods of communication are via telegrams and online chatrooms. She and her team managed to infiltrate these groups to conduct their research, collecting 18,000 pieces of propaganda for their analysis. She discussed threats that were detected, reported, and prevented as a result of ISIS chatroom infiltration, as well as the types of materials collected (i.e., school books, manuals on how to build explosives, propagandistic materials targeted towards specific audiences, etc.) and what themes were identified in these materials. Dr. Bloom concluded her presentation by outlining areas for further research.

July 27, 2018

Mia Bloom

SMA Speaker Series

Network Analysis of Middle Eastern Regional Conflict: NSI Podcast 01

NSI just released its inaugural podcast, which features a previous SMA speaker session presented by Dr. Larry Kuznar (NSI / Indiana University- Purdue University- Fort Wayne), Dr. Allison Astorino-Courtois (NSI), and Mr. Adam Jonas (TRADOC). During this podcast, the speakers discuss their analysis of Middle East conflict and interest networks using social network analysis techniques and measures. Notable findings include the defeat of Daesh on the regional system as the prelude to broader conflict through previously unlikely alliances, cutting across ethno-religious lines. This and other points are discussed in the context of policy implications for DOD and application to the CENTCOM Reach Back effort.

June 2, 2018

Dr. Larry Kuznar, Dr. Allison Astorino-Courtois, and Adam Jonas

NSI Publications (Tagged: Terrorism)

NSI Publication

Trajectory of U.S./North Korean Nuclear War

Hours after the Washington Post broke the story that North Korea may have miniaturized a nuclear warhead, enabling its ICBM to deliver a nuclear blow to U.S. soil, President Trump announced that if North Korea continues to provoke, will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen.”

Year Published:

2017

View Publication

NSI Publication

Smoke, Mirrors, and Mayhem: The Good Fight Remixed

The Army University Press created the Future Warfare Writing Program to generate ideas about possible complexities of future warfare, as presented in the U.S. Army Operating Concept.

Year Published:

2017

View Publication

NSI Publication

Countering Terrorism with IT and Privacy Protection

Security and privacy aren’t dichotomous or conflicting concerns—the solution lies in developing and integrating advanced information technologies for counterterrorism along with privacy-protection technologies to safeguard civil liberties. Coordinated policies can help bind the two to their intended use.

Year Published:

2006

View Publication

NSI Publication

Social Science to Understand Strategic Threat

During the Cold War era, the strategic threat against the US was clear. The country responded clearly with a policy toward the Soviet threat that centered on deterrence, containment, and mutually assured destruction. To enforce this policy, the US created a strategic triad composed of nuclear intercontinental ballistic missiles, Trident nuclear submarines, and long-range strategic bombers. Today, however, our security environment is profoundly different.

Year Published:

2017

View Publication

NSI Publication

Information Technologies for Countering Terrorism

This book explores both counter-terrorism and enabling policy dimensions of emerging information technologies in national security.

Year Published:

2006

View Publication

NSI Publication

Counter Terrorism Through Information Technology

September 11, 2001 might have been just another day if the U.S. intelligence agencies had been better equipped with information technology, according to the report of Congress’s Joint Inquiry into the events leading up to the Sept. 11 attacks.

Year Published:

2004

View Publication

NSI Publication

Perspectives on Greatest Threat of ISIS Loner

In the June 13, 2016 The Journal Gazette Dr. Kuznar discusses his view of the ISIS threat.In the wake of the tragic mass shooting incident in Orlando, and the reported shooter’s pledge to ISIS immediately before the attack, it is a good time to take stock of how ISIS is manifest and how it represents a danger to our homeland.

Year Published:

2016

View Publication

NSI Publication

Pronouncements For Defeating ISIS

Dr. Lawrence A. Kuznar is professor of anthropology at IPFW and has advised the US Department of Defense on global terrorism. He wrote this for The Journal Gazette on November 25, 2015.

Year Published:

2015

View Publication

Site-wide Search

Search all site content, including all NSI and SMA publications, SMA Speaker series, NSI Team member bios, services, portfolio projects, company info, and more.