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SMA Publications (Tagged: Communications)

SMA Publication

Info Ops in Iraq and Syria

The following set of responses to Question S3 represent an attempt to distill the input from individuals who have contributed to any number of OSD-SMA efforts in recent years. Giordano’s Access, Assess, Engage (AAE) framework will be used to categories these recommendations. The recommendations are an attempt to distill the concepts proposed in a set of recent OSD-SMA publications . CENTCOM may improve cognitive engagement by producing a broader, more expansive joint intelligence preparation of the operational environment (JIPOE). An expanded JIPOE (Joint Intelligence Preparation of the Operational Environment) could potentially identify the behaviors of target audiences necessary to achieve US objectives, to develop possible psychological effects and leverage operations as a cognitive scheme of maneuver that could lead to synchronizing actions and messages to achieve coalition objectives. Below is a very high-level summary — details are in the report.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Learning From the Countries Favorable to ISIL

Question (R2 #2): In countries where polling shows favorable opinions of ISIL (Syria, Nigeria, Tunisia, Senegal and Malaysia), what does this tell us? What do these countries have in common? What is our best approach to influence/inform?
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Recent IO Efforts and Sentiments

Question (R2 QL1): Have sentiments changed since the December 2014 polling? Have recent IO efforts in Mosul influenced these sentiments? What other means can we use to influence?
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Part 1 A Compendium of Messaging Reports

This is Part 1 of a 9 part series of SMA Reach back responses to questions posed by USCENTCOM. Each report contains responses to multiple questions grouped by theme. At the request of United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), the Joint Staff, jointly with other elements in the JS, Services, and U.S. Government (USG) Agencies, has established a SMA virtual reach-back cell. This initiative, based on the SMA global network of scholars and area experts, is providing USCENTCOM with population based and regional expertise in support of ongoing operations in the Iraq/Syria region.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

ISIL Propaganda Effects

There was general acknowledgement among the experts that wide-spread, public access to smartphones has been both a game-changer for both the distribution and production of propaganda materials. Smart devices with web access were also cited by many as the predominant medium by which both global and local audiences receive ISIL propaganda and the catalyst for the fading of former distinctions between means used to communicate with “macro” versus “micro” audiences. Even ISIL messages primarily intended for local audiences (e.g., weekly newsletters) do not stay local; they are digitized and may be found on the internet and thus are available globally.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Counter Information Messaging

To be most effective, messaging need to be targeted to specific populations, politically/ethnically correct, and entertaining. First, while there is a need for transnational messages (often those that seek to introduce alternative narratives—a mass targeting technique that uses non-linear messaging to achieve desired outcomes [see Beutel and Ruston]), messaging is most effective when it is tailored to local circumstances; presented by trusted, local voices; and in a format preferred by the target audience (radio, television, social media, religious services, etc.). This requires that information operators clearly understand the motivations, interests, and world views of potential adherents (Zalman). Based on analysis of extremist narratives by Scott Ruston at Arizona State University, an effective system of alternative narratives must recognize the need for justice, recognize threats faced by the target audience, must offer some route to glory (resolution), and must offer some subjection to a higher ideal (whether that is family, tribe, or nation). Nuanced understanding of the target audience can serve to not only contextualize the type of messaging effort and its aims but also to provide a necessary constraint upon the expected return of these programs (Huckabey & Picucci).
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Applying Bio-Psycho-Social to Cognitive Engagement

The recently released White Paper entitled “Assessing and Anticipating Threats to US Security Interests: A Bio-Psycho-Social Science Approach for Understanding the Emergence of and Mitigating Violence and Terrorism” that Giordano discusses in the succeeding section provided a scientific perspective on current operations. The current White Paper provides operational perspectives on that and other relevant sciences. Previous versions outlined WHAT scientific approaches might be relevant; this iteration focuses on HOW to operationalize it.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Protecting Homeland from Int'l & Domestic Terrorism

It would be comforting to be able to find some constants, some footholds in our understanding of terrorism. It is, in fact, the element of mystery as to what drives people to collective violence that makes us uncomfortable -- that fills us with terror. Researchers, policy makers, those who must combat terrorism, and the public hope for some simple formula for radicalization, a program or set of programs that will prevent groups of people from deliberately targeting other people in order to meet their needs (political, economic, social, etc). There is no magic formula within this paper collection, but there are a variety of perspectives that, either in isolation or when integrated, provide new ways to think about terrorism and potentially to inform decisions that will abate this global phenomenon, not exacerbate it.
Year Published:
2010
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SMA Publication

Outer Space in the Media Space: How Russian and Chinese News Media Present the Commercialization and Militarization of the Space Domain

This report details Russian and Chinese media presentations of operations and intentions in the space domain to their respective populations. These presentations provide us insight into how members of these nation states understand their government’s intentions and activities in the space domain, the opportunities and challenges their government’s face in approaching those intentions and activities, the alliances and norms necessary for space usage, and which actors are attempting to destabilizing the space domain.
Year Published:
2018
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SMA Publication

US versus China: Promoting 'Constructive Competition' to Avoid 'Destructive Competition' (Volume II)

It is not an exaggeration to state that China is and will remain a significant challenge to the US on all aspects of national power for the foreseeable future. This situation has been in the making for quite some time. This SMA Perspectives paper will not delve into the historical roots of why the US got to where it is, however. Nor will it dwell on the purely military aspects of the conflict. These are important considerations that are amply discussed elsewhere in numerous scholarly publications. This SMA Perspectives paper is focused on the following question: “How should the US manage the US-China relations so that they stay below the level of conflict and destructive competition?” In this context, the paper distinguishes “constructive competition” from “destructive competition.”
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

The Future Character of Information in Strategy: Forged by Cognition and Technology

The basic cognitive nature of how human brains process information hasn’t changed for millennia, including how we use information in strategy. Information is crucial for strategy aimed at others, whether that is outwitting adversaries or cooperating with allies. And even a superb strategy must be conveyed to one’s own people.
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

Information Maneuver in Military Operations

Treating information as a form of maneuver can provide powerful advantages to commanders and political leaders responsible for US and partner national security. The components of successful maneuver first proposed by van Creveld, Canby, & Brower in 1994—positioning, tempo, Schwerpunkt, surprise and deception, cross-domain synergy, flexibility, unity of effort, and opportunism—can also serve as elements of a framework to anticipate an adversary’s integrated use of information to undermine US and partner interests.
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

Measuring Information Effects

The objective of the Integrating Information into Joint Operations (IIJO) project is to assess the ways in which the Joint Force can most effectively integrate information1 into its activities across the competition-conflict continuum. During the course of this project, we have spoken to many people familiar with both Department of Defense (DOD) and Department of State (DOS) efforts to integrate information and shape the information environment (IE); their overall assessment has been remarkably consistent.2 Namely, information is playing an increasingly important role in states’ ability to protect and further their national interests, but the United States is not currently equipped or positioned to counter the scope and scale of our adversaries’ information activities.
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

Effective Communication: Lessons Learned From Those Outside the US Government and Military

This report integrates key insights and lessons learned from the SMA IIJO effort about how those outside of the US government and military (i.e., non-government and private sector organizations) use messaging and communication to influence and inform. Ultimately, what emerges is a collection of best practices for effective communication. The source material for this report consists of final deliverables produced as part of the SMA IIJO effort. In particular, the findings presented in this report are largely built upon the integration of the work done as part of the IIJO Quick Looks and IIJO Virtual Think Tank (ViTTa) lines of effort.
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

Present and Future Challenges to Maintaining Balance Between Global Cooperation and Competition (Volume I)

The future operating environment will present US military leaders and planners with both familiar and unfamiliar problem sets that will test the DoD and partner nations’ ability to maintain strategic stability. These future challenges are anticipated to be significantly different from those of recent decades. The two overarching challenges are contested norms and persistent disorder. It is expected that adversaries will continue to pursue their national objectives by creatively combining conventional and non-conventional methods to operate below a threshold that they believe would invoke a direct military or other damaging response from the United States or its allies.
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

On Education and Training for Operations in the Information Environment

The Services and the Joint Staff provide both professional military education as well as academic education through the various schools, colleges and academies. These elements are currently working on developing courses and modifying curricula to address the guidance provided by the 15 May 2020 policy CJCSI 1800.01F. However, there is need for a short-term, temporary approach to inculcate rapidly the force across all levels on the challenges of operating in the information environment. Such an approach, based on a similar challenge faced by the USAF in the early 2000s, is outlined in a short paper.
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

Assessments of Operations in the Information Environment for the Eastern Mediterranean and South China Sea

In support of the USAF and the SMA, the TRADOC G-2 Modeling and Simulations Office (M&SO) employed the Athena Simulation to assess a series of research questions posed by the Air Force, as well as to test a series of explorable insights (hypotheses) developed during the project’s Net Assessment and Subject Matter Expert (SME) engagements. A total of 35 explorable insights were identified during the Net Assessment from which four specific study topics were derived for analysis utilizing the Athena Simulation. These included:
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

Escalation Management in 21st Century Operations in the Information Environment

We argue that the concept of escalation thresholds remains salient in national security and may be even more important than ever. However, the Cold War model is no longer useful given the multi-dimensional and complex nature of information in today’s world. We argue that escalation thresholds regarding information need to be conceived of in terms of complex systems. Qualitatively, analysts and decision makers must learn to intuit the dynamics of information in a complex world. Quantitatively, analysts must bring to bear complexity theory, and appropriate modeling and data collection. These changes have implications across the spectrum of activities that include doctrine, organization, training, materiel, leadership and education, personnel, facilities, and policy.
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

Retransmitting the Caliphate

The Islamic State’s complete loss of territorial control in Iraq and Syria in 2019 forced its central media unit to adapt in order to continue to produce the high-quality products for which it had become infamous. This paper evaluates this transformation, and measures both output, themes, and quality of product in the years since the collapse of the territorial caliphate. We distill some of the elements the group has used to successfully produce and disseminate products from strengthening affiliates abroad, and the impact the central media has had on these distant media cells. Through our research regarding non-state actor influence operations, a sense of the larger, comprehensive character of the ever-evolving information environment can be derived.
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

The Three N Approach to Strategies for United States Government Information Operations

This paper seeks to answer the following question: What can we learn from the process of radicalization into extremism that can be applied to information operations to make them more successful? We contend that the 3 N model of radicalization applies more generally to the process whereby information is absorbed and is having impact. This process assumes that information absorption and impact are driven by motivation—that is, human needs. The 3 Ns refer to needs, narratives, and networks, which together help us understand why some individuals become radicalized. Radicalization, the internalization of an extremist narrative, is driven by exposure to an extremist narrative validated by a social network of trusted others who—through the narrative—provide a means to satisfy the crucial human need for significance
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

Using Messaging and Communication to Influence and Inform: Insights from the Private Sector – An Integrating Information in Joint Operations (IIJO) Virtual Think Tank Report

[Q4] What are relevant insights from the private sector with respect to using messaging and communication to influence and inform different audiences?
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

How [Culture] Change Happens: A Roadmap of What Works

Change is hard; it humbles us all. Yet, it is possible to succeed. This article explores the why, what, who and how of successful change initiatives. Despite wildly different organizational cultures in the U.S. Navy, Walt Disney, Major League Baseball teams, Police Departments, and in the technology and banking sectors, common practices employed by change champions yielded success. This article will demonstrate the importance of messaging change clearly, demonstrating how to live the change, aligning your people’s behaviors with new organizational values, using data to make change actionable and your organization accountable and cultivating strategic patience to sustain change initiatives over time. We hope this invited perspective provides confidence among the curious that, despite how difficult undertaking change is – and the many competing perspectives in the marketplace about how to do it well – this roadmap can set you up for success.
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

Transactional Communication Model

This report presents a model for understanding the core communication process, and elaborates on mechanisms to strengthen it. We begin with an overview of the core communication process itself then discuss where and how factors internal and external to the communication process can influence the effectiveness of message transmission and interpretation. As the theoretical foundations of the model are covered in a companion IIJO Quick Look, “The Development of Communication Models,” in this report, we have kept the theoretical section to brief definitions of the key terms.
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

Vulnerabilities to Cognitive Biases in the OODA Loop Process

A recent Quick Look prepared as part of a Joint Staff and Air Force (A3)-sponsored effort to examine the effectiveness of Operations in the Information Environment (OIE) examines how cognitive biases can affect the communication process (Polansky & Rieger, 2020). During review of that analysis, a discussion arose regarding how cognitive biases can affect not only communication, but also decision-making, including more structured processes such as the OODA (Observe, Orient, Decide, Act) Loop analytical framework. To address those questions and concerns, in the present paper, we explore how some common types of cognitive bias can impact an OODA Loop analysis, potentially leading to a sub-optimal result.
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

Understanding Mass Self-Communication

This brief discusses a new form of communication within networked societies—Castells’ so-called mass self-communication. The brief highlights how barriers between old and new media are disappearing as increasing technological access creates new forms of labor, challenges traditional understandings of the communication process, and empowers individuals to make otherwise inconceivable system-wide impacts.
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

Propaganda: Indexing and Framing and the Tools of Disinformation

Propaganda has evolved significantly alongside the economic and technologically-driven forces of globalization. What was once the domain of pamphlets, posters, radio, and television has adapted within an ever-expanding virtual landscape of information, as societies are increasingly linked across social and digital networks. This change has brought new challenges to countering propaganda’s effect, as the expansion of media platforms has made determining what propaganda is increasingly challenging. Depending on one’s definition, propaganda can include everything from a Chinese anime biography of Karl Marx to digital armies of coordinated social media accounts converging on targets. Given the rapidly evolving manifestations of propaganda, and the threats posed, it is important to understand the fundamental operations of how propaganda works, how it functions in societies, and how it can be countered (Nemr & Gangware, 2019).
Year Published:
2020
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SMA Publication

Inoculation Theory

This Quick Look specifically assesses and describes how one area of social scientific research, called Inoculation Theory, can be used to build individual resistance to attitude change, especially as it relates to force protection against misinformation, fake news, and conspiracy theories.
Year Published:
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SMA Publication

Communicative Power in a Globalized “Network Society”

This report supported SMA’s Integrating Information in Joint Operations (IIJO) project. For additional speaker sessions and project publications, please visit the IIJO project page.
Year Published:
2020
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SMA Publication

Cognitive Biases: Causes, Effects, and Implications for Effective Messaging

In the current environment of contested norms, increasing great power competition, and rapid technological change, protecting and furthering US interests requires the ability to compete effectively in the information environment (IE). In recent years, the IE has seen the proliferation of actors, channels of communication, and messages. To compete in this crowded and contested environment, we must be able to communicate effectively. Yet, the IE is complicated, available information is often vast and imperfect, time is constrained, and additionally, we are limited by our own cognitive capacity.
Year Published:
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SMA Publication

Rethinking Communication Influence from a Strategic Communication Approach

For over a decade, many within US defense and interagency circles maintain a belief they are ‘losing’ the communication influence battle, one its adversaries are excelling at due to seemingly better strategy and reach. Peer competitor infiltration into American elections, radical groups facilitating foreign fighter flow over chat applications, and/or failed attempts to counter narratives should reason for a glaring need for the US to change strategy. But surprisingly little or none of this strategic shift is occurring.
Year Published:
2020
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SMA Publication

The Future of Global Competition & Conflict Comparative Analysis: A Media Ecology & Strategic Analysis (MESA) Group Report

This report provides a comparative analysis of Chinese, Russian, Iranian, and Venezuelan media narratives regarding visions of the future of global competition, including their instruments of exerting power (DIME), purported vulnerabilities and necessary capabilities, projected allies and adversaries, views on the future of global order (FGO), the US, and EU, as well as the available means by which global competition should be managed.
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

Media Narrative Analysis: Iranian, Russian, and Chinese News Coverage of the Future of Afghanistan

This project analyzed Chinese, Russian, and Iranian media narratives concerning interests in, and future prospects of, Afghanistan stability through three phases: Phase I (May-June, 2018; 79 articles), Phase II, (July-August, 2018; 124 articles), Phase III (October-September, 2018; 180 articles). Across these three phases, the analysis revealed consistent narrative patterns regarding the following:
Year Published:
2018
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SMA Speaker Series (Tagged: Communications)

SMA Speaker Series

Back to the Future: Trajectories, Simulations and Alternative Futures of Great Power Competition

The US and China have been locked in a great power competition (GPC) that will decide who has more political influence among both developing and developed countries.
July 12, 2023
Dr. Mark Abdollahian
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SMA Speaker Series

An Agenda for Disinformation Research

Dr. Garland defined disinformation as “false misleading or inaccurate information disseminated with the intent to deceive.” Disinformation must be countered because it undermines individuals’ trust in US institutions and destroys society’s shared reality, increasing polarization and societal conflict.
July 20, 2021
Joshua Garland
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SMA Speaker Series

Ukrainian Resistance to Russian Disinformation: Lessons for Future Conflict

A key element of Ukrainian resistance to the Russian invasion has been its ability to counter Russian disinformation. In their recent report for RAND, Dr. Helmus and Dr. Holynska discuss Ukraine’s approach to combating disinformation and the lessons that the United States and NATO can draw from this effort.
September 19, 2024
Todd Helmus and Khrystyna Holynska
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SMA Speaker Series

The Origins of the War in Ukraine

Russia seeks to dominate both Ukraine’s territory and its political future. Dr. Kimmage analyzed Russia’s motivations for initiating the war, as well as the failures of the United States, Europe, and Ukraine in deterring the invasion.
October 14, 2024
‍Michael Kimmage
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SMA Speaker Series

Climate Change and Food Security in the Indo-Pacific: Challenges and Opportunities

The Indo-Pacific region is home to approximately 60% of the world’s population and contributes 60% of the world’s gross domestic product (GDP), making it one of the most significant regions to monitor.
October 3, 2024
Ameya Kelkar
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SMA Speaker Series

The Next Quantum Superpower? US-China Quantum Competition and the New Global Quantum Scramble Quantum Computing

The race to achieve quantum computing has significant implications for the future security landscape. Dr. Williams highlighted the current progress, challenges, and opportunities for growth in the quantum computing field.
July 30, 2024
‍Dr. Brandon Kirk Williams
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SMA Speaker Series

Future Scenarios for Sino-Russian Military Cooperation Possibilities, Limitations, and Consequences

The level of integration and cooperation between China and Russia in the event of a significant military conflict is often speculated upon, particularly given the rising political tensions in the Korean Peninsula and the South China Sea.
September 12, 2024
Mark Cozad, Cortez A. Cooper III, and David Woodworth
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SMA Speaker Series

The Defender's Dilemma: Why countering grayzone aggression is so difficult (and what options Western governments do have)

Western governments, including the United States, face significant challenges in identifying gray zone aggression. This form of aggression is often difficult to detect before the attack is fully underway, as it can originate from any source at any time.
September 5, 2024
Elisabeth Braw
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SMA Speaker Series

Emerging Military Technologies: Putting Policy Before Profit

There is growing concern among some scholars that the pursuit of economic incentives may push US military technology advancements ahead of the establishment of proper policies and security measures, prioritizing profits over policy.
September 25, 2024
William D. Hartung and Dr. Michael Brenes
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SMA Speaker Series

Statelet of Survivors: The Making of a Semi-Autonomous Region in Northeast Syria: US Options in the New Phase of the Syrian Conflict

The political overtures made by Turkish President Erdogan to normalize relations with the Assad regime are reshaping the dynamics of the Syrian civil war.
August 28, 2024
Dr. Amy Austin Holmes
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SMA Speaker Series

Irregular Warfare in Strategic Competition and Gray Zones: Prosecuting Authoritarian Subversion and Exploitative Use of Corruption and Criminality to Weaken Democracy

US adversaries, including China, Russia, and Iran, aim to diminish Western influence while expanding their own in many countries. They employ various strategies, such as leveraging proxies, transnational organized crime and kleptocrats, which can undermine democracies and the rule of law.
August 22, 2024
David Luna
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SMA Speaker Series

Public Support for Self-Defence in Taiwan: The Current State of Research

Chinese President Xi Jinping has indicated that an invasion of Taiwan by 2027 is a distinct possibility, if not imminent. The concern of a Chinese invasion from the international community intensified following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
August 14, 2024
Dr. Yao-Yuan Yeh, Dr. Fang-Yu Chen, and Dr. Charles Wu
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SMA Speaker Series

How Innovative is China in Nuclear Power?

Analysts have long debated China’s capacity to innovate within its industry and economy. Mr. Ezell presented compelling evidence that China is not only more innovative than most analysts predict, but that its nuclear industry is particularly advanced.
September 10, 2024
Stephen Ezell
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SMA Speaker Series

Assessing the Impact of China's Slowing Economy on CCP Legitimacy using Hyperlocal Population Data

The Chinese economy has enjoyed massive growth during the last few decades as its economy transitioned from mostly agrarian to the world’s largest trading nation and an industrial superpower.
March 22, 2024
Katherine Ly
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SMA Speaker Series

Global Influence Operations

Global Witness employs a strategy of research, exposure, and advocacy to dismantle autocratic and kleptocratic regimes, such as Charles Taylor’s regime in Liberia.
July 31, 2024
Patrick Alley
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SMA Speaker Series

Russia’s Cyber Power Base: From Cybercriminals to Private Contractors

Justin Sherman spoke to the SMA audience about Russia’s cyber power base—not just the state and intelligence actors, but also the private contractors and private sector companies that play an important role in Russia’s cyber power.
August 7, 2024
Justin Sherman
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SMA Speaker Series

How Climate Change Impacts Security and Conflict Worldwide

Climate change is projected to have deep and far-reaching effects as its pace continues to increase, amplifying states’ insecurities and vulnerabilities.
September 19, 2024
Dr. Tim Clack and Ella Fleming
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SMA Speaker Series

Climate, Peace, and Security in Latin America and the Caribbean – A Perspective from UNDP

Since 2008, the discourse on the relationship between climate change effects, conflict, and security has significantly evolved.
July 18, 2024
Adam Forbes
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SMA Speaker Series

Shades of Grim: Scenarios for Ukraine and Global Order

The ongoing war in Ukraine remains unresolved, and its outcome is widely debated among politicians, researchers, and military practitioners.
July 16, 2024
Luis Simón and Lotje Boswinkel
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SMA Speaker Series

The Promise & Perils of AI: What We’ve Learned from Some of the Largest Real World Deployments of Generative & Classical AI to Understand Global News

One of the GDELT Project’s goals is to use artificial intelligence (AI) to better understand our world.
July 11, 2024
Dr. Kalev Hannes Leetaru
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SMA Speaker Series

Foreign Assistance in an Era of Strategic Competition

China is the only modern-day US competitor with both the intent and the capability to challenge the United States politically, militarily, and economically.
May 23, 2024
Daniel Cederberg
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SMA Speaker Series

Access Denied?: Assessing Options for Projecting Airpower into a Contested East Asia

China is striving to limit US military power projection in its home region of East Asia by enhancing its own ability to project air and missile power.
June 25, 2024
Nicholas D. Anderson and Daryl Press
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SMA Speaker Series

Rebuilding Ukraine with Mr. Pavlo Kukhta

The ongoing Russian invasion has dramatically affected Ukraine’s industry and economy, forcing Ukraine to reimagine and rebuild its industrial base and market structure.
June 20, 2024
Pavlo Kukhta
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SMA Speaker Series

Critical Minerals Geopolitics and Security

Minerals are crucial components of advanced weapons systems, playing a pivotal role in military capability and power projection. They are increasingly integrated into new attack platforms, including Virginia-class attack submarines and long-range missiles.
May 16, 2024
Morgan Bazilian and Gregory Wischer
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SMA Speaker Series

A Hotter and Drier Future Ahead - An Assessment of Climate Change in U.S. Central Command

Climate-related stressors present significant risks to future stability in countries worldwide, affecting all US Combatant Commands.
May 9, 2024
Dr. Michelle Miro, Dr. Flannery C. Dolan, Karen M. Sudkamp, and Jeffrey Martini
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SMA Speaker Series

Some of the Analysis Behind RAND’s “Inflection Point” Report

Modern threats from developed nations like China are beginning to exceed US capabilities, partly because the US military was predominantly focused on regional adversaries such as Iraq during Desert Storm. Mr. Ochmanek categorized the US approach to military power projection during this period as expeditionary and sequential.
May 22, 2024
David Ochmanek
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SMA Speaker Series

Responses Against China's Coercion in the Indo-Pacific: Developing a Toolkit from the Philippines and Taiwan

China has escalated its aggressive and coercive tactics against smaller and less powerful states as part of its objective to become a regional hegemony.
April 24, 2024
Thomas J. Shattuck and Robin Michael U. Garcia
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SMA Speaker Series

The Qualities that Make Nations Competitive: Chinese and Russian Views

A significant portion of the current literature exploring Great Power Competition (GPC) among the United States, China, and Russia predominantly reflects a Western perspective.
April 23, 2024
Timothy R. Heath, Michael J. Mazarr, and Clint Reach
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SMA Speaker Series

The Sanctions Response to Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

The sanctions imposed on Russia in response to its past aggressive actions, such as the annexation of Crimea, targeted actors directly involved in its aggression. However, the current sanctions imposed on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine have a much broader scope, encompassing actors and institutions throughout Russian society.
April 11, 2024
Christine Abely
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SMA Speaker Series

Building Solutions to Post-conflict Stabilization

The optimal outcome of any military conflict is a lasting peace in the post-war period. Professor Heuser discusses insights from historical and ongoing conflicts that shed light on the factors influencing the establishment of enduring peace.
March 6, 2024
Dr. Beatrice Heuser
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SMA Speaker Series

The Globalization Myth: Why Regions Matter

Dr. O’Neil offers a reframed perspective on economic globalization, highlighting the prominence of increased interregional trade rather than international trade.
April 16, 2024
Shannon K. O’Neil
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SMA Speaker Series

A Climate of Insecurity? Exploring the Nexus of Climate Change and National Security

The rapidly evolving global climate system is undergoing changes at an unprecedented rate, placing significant strains on governments and communities worldwide.
January 4, 2024
Dr. Samuel Henkin
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SMA Speaker Series

The Future of US-Russian Relations

Even in the event of a military defeat suffered by Russia at the hands of Ukraine, it will continue to pose a formidable adversary to the US for the foreseeable future.
February 23, 2024
Thomas Graham
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SMA Speaker Series

Why, What, and How Free Societies Must Develop Effective Deterrence of Actors Intending Bad Ends Given Our GenAI Era

The advent of widespread internet access and the emergence of new forms of generative AI (GenAI) have broken down the physical boundaries that once separated international and intranational communities.
March 13, 2024
Dr. David A. Bray
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SMA Speaker Series

Great Power Economic Competition, the PRC Economic Challenge, and the Prospects of De-Dollarization

According to Dr. Williams, there are two other important strategies employed by China to enhance the yuan’s prominence in the global financial sector involving the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and China’s dominance in the mass production of goods imported by other countries.
February 1, 2024
Dr. Brandon Kirk Williams
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SMA Speaker Series

Upstart: How China Became a Great Power

In her recent book, “Upstart: How China Became a Great Power,” Dr. Mastro delves into the rapid trajectory of China’s rise from global obscurity to great power status.
March 12, 2024
‍Oriana Skylar Mastro
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SMA Speaker Series

On Persuasion

During his presentation, Mr. Wouters delved into the original model developed by the Cialdini Institute, alongside two recently-devised tools tailored for assessing a target audience’s interests and executing an influence campaign.
February 6, 2024
Bas Wouters
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SMA Speaker Series

China and the Global South: Big Ambitions, Big Challenges

China’s economic slowdown coupled with its ambition to continuously compete with the US both economically and politically is compelling Beijing to intensify its efforts to increase political influence in the Global South. Mr. Schuman, who authored an article on why China will struggle to win over the Global South and how India can aid the US in countering China’s efforts, suggested that China’s ultimate geopolitical goal is to reshape the current political world order.
February 27, 2024
Michael Schuman
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SMA Speaker Series

Deterrence and Space Warfare

The strategy of space warfare is a subset of general warfare strategy; therefore, the ideas of deterrence, compellence, and dissuasion have applicability in the space domain.
January 4, 2024
Dr. John Klein
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SMA Speaker Series

AI-Driven Expert-Validated Threat and Foreign Influence Assessments

Seerist developed an artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled threat intelligence platform that utilizes information from open-source resources to identify, monitor, and track global threats.
January 25, 2024
Ms. Jacki Davenport (Seerist)
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SMA Speaker Series

Hybrid Warfare: Guile Born Out of Weakness

Russia’s historical strategy to protect its sovereign borders and security environment has been to act aggressively with its military, attempting to constantly expand its borders.
January 11, 2024
Curtis Fox
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SMA Speaker Series

Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis (ABM) and its Ties to Hamas

Wilayat Sinai (WS), formerly known as Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis (ABM), is an Egyptian-based extremist group that is active in the Sinai Peninsula. The group seeks to influence the region’s politics and establish a state of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).
July 12, 2023
Dr. Zana Gul (University of Stirling)
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SMA Speaker Series

The Evolution of Commercial Drones and Security: Why You Should Care!

Drones are continuously revolutionizing the modern battlefield and have since they were first introduced. Some battlefield applications for drones are obvious, such as the RQ-4 Global Hawk, which are used to carry large payloads and are specifically designed for surveillance and warfighting. However, drones designed for the recreation or service industry and readily available online are also being used on the battlefield with increasing frequency. These commercial drones pose a unique threat to the security of military and commercial entities. They can be cheaply and quickly made—even in someone’s garage—while also being able to carry dangerous payloads. Mr. Hambling emphasized that for this and other reasons, cheap commercial electronics are changing the way that the US and other actors conduct warfare. Ukraine was mentioned by the participants as a testing ground for the mass production, repurposing, and use of commercial drone use in modern conflicts.
November 29, 2023
Bill Edwards, David Hambling, and Zachary Kallenborn
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SMA Speaker Series

Alternative Ukrainian Future Trajectories: Implications for Russia and the West

Dr. Graeme Herd at the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies is conducting multiple workshops and seminars, creating predicted pathways for war in Ukraine, using open-source materials. Dr. Herd identified five potential future pathways for the war in Ukraine, being: Ukrainian victory, Russian victory, protracted conflict, frozen conflict, and negotiated peace.
June 22, 2023
‍Dr. Graeme P. Herd
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SMA Speaker Series

Beijing Rules: How China Weaponized Its Economy to Confront the World

During the last 25 years, China has strengthened its ability to economically coerce governments, companies, multilateral institutions, and individuals, bringing them in line with the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) desires. She summarized China’s statecraft as a “clearly communicated set of rewards and punishments based on gatekeeping access to China’s huge markets, capital, and investments.” China uses its influence over markets as a vector for measuring illiberal political will among corporations and governments. China’s economic statecraft is purely political in nature. This means that any government, corporation, or individual who does not abide by the CCP’s guidelines are subject to sanctions. Ms. Allen emphasized that this is a juxtaposition to US and Western statecraft, in which sanctions are used to further multilateral goals of the liberal order.
October 18, 2023
Ms. Bethany Allen (Axios)
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SMA Speaker Series

Influence and Perception Management Office

The Influence and Perception Management Office (IPMO) is a young office within the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Intelligence and Security (OUSD I&S). However, the need for an organization managing the US Armed Forces’ messaging has been debated for two decades among military and civilian leaders. The office’s first acting director, Mr. James Holly, emphasized that the evolving modern threat landscape has only increased the need for the IPMO over that time. During the years of IPMO’s creation, three Secretaries of Defense, under two administrations, signed off on its establishment, underscoring the need for this kind of office.
October 3, 2023
Mr. James Holly
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SMA Speaker Series

Why Trust Matters in AI? How Can We Achieve It?

The capabilities and implications of artificial intelligence are frequently discussed throughout all sectors of society. Among the many questions asked is, how can human users trust AI? Dr. Bray emphasized that the first step in understanding whether humans can trust AI, is to define trust. Individuals will readily give their trust to either a person or organization if they perceive benevolence, competence, and integrity. While well-programmed AI can imitate having these traits, it cannot possess them. It is better to think of AI as an alien interaction rather than a human interaction. This is because AI is a computationally-based program that works differently than a human brain, making it impossible for AI to possess these traits or express real emotions. It is not surprising that humans have tried to attribute real intelligence to AI, because of a tendency to anthropomorphize both objects and animals. To understand the current state of AI, it is important to understand its evolution during the last two decades. Dr. Bray identified four separate significant evolutionary stages during his presentation. The first of these stages was during the early 2000s when AI’s main purpose was to better understand human decision-making. The last evolutionary period was from 2017-2019 and focused on counter-disinformation. AI uses large language models (LLMs) to read and process data. Dr. Bray emphasized the need to use what he called AI-PRAMs (Probe, Reason, and Assess Models) to test the LLM’s findings against existing and real-time insights. He also stated that generative AI should never be used to make decisions regarding someone’s health or national security. A human decisionmaker should always be involved in those situations. He stated that the Turing test is usually used to assess the effectiveness of AI’s ability to trick the user into believing they are acting with an intelligent lifeform. Dr. Bray suggested that the Turing test may not be the best test for assessing the usefulness of AI. Instead, a test could be used that does not focus on deception, but rather the AI’s ability to help humans make decisions.
October 5, 2023
Dr. David Bray
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SMA Speaker Series

China's Three Roads to Controlling Taiwan

The increasing political and military tensions between China and Taiwan are frequently discussed in Western media. During these discussions, politicians and pundits point out Taiwan’s strategic importance to the US and China, including US and Chinese strategic options. Mr. Kagan and Mr. Blumenthal discuss these topics and more in their new article “China’s Three Roads to Controlling Taiwan.” Mr. Kagan emphasized that while influencing Taiwan’s future is an important objective for both the US and China, it is not the most important objective for either country in the Asia Pacific region. A more important short-term objective for China is weakening anti-Chinese coalitions and alliances in the region. Furthermore, Chinese president, Xi Jinping, believes that there is plenty of time for China to achieve its objective of reunifying all of what he deems China by the goal date, 2049.
September 27, 2023
Dr. Dan Blumenthal (AEI) & Frederick W. Kagan (AEI); Jack Gaines, Moderator (One CA Podcast)
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SMA Speaker Series

Freedom in the World 2023: Marking 50 Years in the Struggle for Democracy

For fifty years, Freedom House has published its assessment of the state of democracy around the world. Freedom House categorizes countries and territories in to three groups based off a point system: 1) free, 2) partly free, and 3) not free. Dr. Gorokhovskaia mentioned that 2022 saw a continuation of a 17-year democratic slide; however, there were several bright spots for democracy around the world. For instance, during 2022 only one more country that became less democratic (35) than countries became more democratic (34). In comparison, during 2021, 35 more countries became more autocratic (60) than countries that became more democratic (25). Several factors that lessened the global strength of democracies during 2022 included a rash of military coups. For example, Burkina Faso experienced several military coups itself that resulted in the suspension of its constitution. Burkina Faso had the largest point decrease of 23-points during 2022. Columbia experienced the largest growth in democratic strength, increasing by 6 points. Columbia’s increase was due to more fair and competitive political elections than it had experienced in recent years. Individual country reports go into greater detail.
September 20, 2023
Yana Gorokhovskaia (Freedom House)
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SMA Speaker Series

The Minds and Actions of Devoted Actors and the Will to Fight: A Behavioral and Brain Studies Approach to War and Extreme Group Conflict

What drives warfighters to make costly sacrifices—including their lives—is a long-standing question that military and civilian leaders have tried to answer. Dr. Atran explained that this question can be studied through two different psychological models: 1) rational choice theory and 2) the devoted actor model. He argued that the devoted actor model is most suitable when assessing why people are willing to make costly sacrifices. When fighters decide that they are ready to freely give their lives, it is rarely a rational decision. Instead, it is a result of their devotion to the values that they hold most sacred. Understanding an individual’s sacred values is contingent on many factors, including how fused that individual’s identity is to that of a group. Individuals whose identities are completely fused with that of a single group are the most likely to give their lives in support of that group’s values.
September 12, 2023
Dr. Scott Atran (University of Michigan)
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SMA Speaker Series

US Command Perspectives on Campaigning in Support of Integrated Deterrence

The complex nature of the modern threat environment and geopolitical competition, especially competition in the gray zone, has caused many scholars and military leaders to study how all Combatant Commands can combine their resources and capabilities to conduct effective integrated deterrence. This panel was comprised of the authors of a SMA Perspectives Publication: U.S. Command Perspectives on Campaigning in Support of Integrated Deterrence (Volume IV). During this panel the authors, from USAFRICOM, USCYBERCOM, NORAD and USNORTHCOM, USSOCOM, and USSTRATCOM commands, addressed how individually and cumulatively the Combatant Commands can best conduct integrated deterrence in a sustained campaign. The speakers detailed how a successful long-term campaign will create enduring advantages for the US and its allies across the many warfighting domains.
August 10, 2023
Ms. Michele Wolfe (USAFRICOM), Drs. Emily Goldman and Michael Warner (USCYBERCOM), Mr. James “JJ” Jenista (USNORTHCOM and NORAD), Mr. Robert Jones (USSOCOM), Mr. Howard Simkin (USASOC), Ms. Kayse Jansen (USSTRATCOM)
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SMA Speaker Series

A New Asian Order is Emerging

India’s expanding political influence is altering the current geopolitical order in Asia, with India positioned at its center. India’s growing role in geopolitics will over time take away some of the geopolitical focus on the Asia-Pacific region and place it on the Indo-Pacific region. Mr. Soliman emphasized that India’s geographical position at the center of the economic corridor running between China and the Middle East, give it a political and economic advantage. India’s massive population gives it massive economic and industrial potential on its own. India is also in a unique position to build political ties throughout the Indo-Pacific region with its historic and cultural ties throughout the Asia-Pacific and Middle East regions. To further its geopolitical influence in the Indo-Pacific, India is not only relying on its economic potential, but also signing military and security deals with other nations in the region. India is increasing its dialogue with several significant actors in the Middle East: Egypt, Israel, and Saudi Arabia. Finally, Mr. Soliman put forth that Shinzo Abe’s Indo-Pacific vision, an India-centric strategy with a focus on bilateral security dialogue with Australia and the US, is now coming true.
July 26, 2023
Mr. Mohammed Soliman (Middle East Institute)
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SMA Speaker Series

Update on the sUAS Ecosystem: Understanding the Basics: Vulnerability Assessment, Detection, CUAS Technology, and Law

Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) are still a relatively new technology and an even newer commercial product; however, the growth of the UAV market has been immense. During the last 13 years, there have been 1.7 million UAVs registered in 100 countries. Of these, 75% are for consumer or commercial use, increasing their prevalence in modern civil society. However, commercial UAVs have the capability to be used by the state militaries and to carry out attacks by violent non-governmental organizations. Because of these capabilities, many states have concerns over the growing commonality of commercial UAVs. Some of these concerns come from past assassination attempts on state leaders using UAVs. Col (Ret) Edwards emphasized that the war in Ukraine has given combatants a wealth of new case studies for both the development and employment of UAVs in combat. Ukraine itself has become an epicenter for UAV development.
July 20, 2023
Colonel (Ret) Bill Edwards (Building Intelligence Inc.)
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SMA Speaker Series

Russian Uncrewed Systems in Ukraine

The use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) is having a significant impact on the war in Ukraine, changing how Russia and Ukraine are actively fighting and carrying out intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance. Mr. Bendett summarized his latest Center for Naval Analyses (CNA) report, the third CNA report in a series examining Russia’s and Ukraine’s use of UAVs. He commented that the reports focus on the use of UAVs because they are the most prevalent unmanned vehicles being used in the war. Unmanned ground and water vehicles are being used, although less frequently. This is not the first time Russia has used UAVs. During the Syrian Civil War, Russia used UAVs in support of Assad’s authoritarian regime. However, the Syrian Civil War and the war in Ukraine are very different. Ukraine’s Armed Forces have significantly more capabilities and technologies than the Syrian rebels.
July 6, 2023
Mr. Samuel Bendett (Center for Naval Analyses)
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SMA Speaker Series

Russia’s Role in Global Nuclear Supply Chains

Ms. Dolzikova discussed how Russia’s civil nuclear sector has largely evaded the sanctions placed on the rest of the Russian economy since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. During her presentation she outlined the drivers of the global dependency on Russia’s civil nuclear supplies, highlighting the challenges and potential approaches to diversification. For more information on this topic, you can read Ms. Dolzikova’s article Catch-235: Western Dependence on Russian Nuclear Supplies is Hard to Shake.
September 12, 2023
Ms. Darya Dolzikova (RUSI)
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SMA Speaker Series

Safety and Security of Nuclear Installations in Ukraine and Implications for Future Conflicts

The war in Ukraine is raising questions about the security of Ukraine’s nuclear power plants and the safety of civilians who are in their proximity. Military and civilian leaders in other countries that possess nuclear power plants are examining how litigation could protect their own facilities during future conflicts. Ms. Dolzikova stated that this discussion has intensified since Russia occupied the Chornobyl Exclusion Zone and captured the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) during the early stages of its invasion of Ukraine. The ZNPP is still under Russian occupation, forcing collaboration between Ukrainian and Russian nuclear scientists, Ukrainian workers at ZNPP, the International Atomic Energy Agency, and the Russian occupiers to ensure the plant’s safety and security. Since Russia’s take-over, all six ZNPP nuclear reactors have been shut down. One reactor is in a “hot shutdown,” allowing it to produce steam. Russian nuclear scientists are insisting that it is necessary for this reactor to produce steam for the safety of the power plant, but Ukrainian scientists claim that a “hot shutdown” is an unnecessary hazard. They claim that keeping the reactor in this state is reducing the time window that workers would have to divert a catastrophe during a systems failure.
August 1, 2023
Ms. Darya Dolzikova (RUSI)
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SMA Speaker Series

The United States and Regional Great Power Rivalry: Can America Still Pass the Mearsheimer test?

International relations (IR) experts widely perceive the US global political influence to be in a decline, especially in regions farther from the US. However, state actors who are gaining influence in their home regions are experiencing their own geopolitical roadblocks. Dr. Katz highlighted the past work of IR theorist, John Mearsheimer, who created a standard for measuring an actor’s great power strength and influence in regions across the world. Dr. Mearsheimer’s work argues that the US is the only nation to achieve hegemony in one region (the Western Hemisphere) and be able to prevent any other great power from gaining hegemony in any other region. Dr. Katz argued that the question is no longer if the US can grow its own geopolitical influence in regions, but if it can keep its adversaries from increasing theirs.
July 25, 2023
Dr. Mark Katz (Schar School of Policy and Government, George Mason University)
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SMA Speaker Series

Beyond the Wire: US Military Deployments and Host Country Public Opinion

The presence of a US military base in a host country naturally increases interactions between that host country’s citizens and US military personnel. These interactions occur in many countries, partly because the US has maintained a 25% deployment rate since the end of WWII. Host countries—especially the local communities around the base—get a significant economic boost. US military personnel often try to use local contractors. However, there are many factors that affect the local sentiment towards US military personnel in these countries. Dr. Martinez Machain identifies these factors by using survey data from 14 countries in her new book, Beyond the Wire: US Military Deployments and Host Country Public Opinion.
June 27, 2023
Dr. Carla Martinez Machain (University at Buffalo, SUNY)
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SMA Speaker Series

The Ukrainian Army is Leveraging Online Influencers. Can the U.S. Military?

The war in Ukraine has demonstrated how cooperation between a country’s military and prominent social media influencers can be a useful tool for harnessing narrative control relating to conflicts. Dr. Helmus argued that Ukraine has been out-performing Russia in its ability to create and disseminate effective narratives surrounding the ongoing war. The success of Ukraine’s information operations is in part due to its tactic of leveraging civilian and military influencers who regularly post on social media. These influencers use their platform to share posts that highlight the loss of innocent life during Russian attacks, the resilience of Ukraine’s civilian population, and the success of Ukrainian military operations. These information operations come at virtually no cost to Ukraine because most creators are posting videos on their own volition. Dr. Helmus commented that while researchers have not been able to empirically confirm the positive effects of these social media operations, Ukrainian officials have emphasized their importance on the battlefield. While Ukraine has recently been using its media to great effect, the practice of leveraging influencers on social media is a well-used marketing strategy.
June 6, 2023
Dr. Todd Helmus (RAND)
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SMA Speaker Series

A Restraint Approach to U.S. China Policy

Although the US-China competition has global economic and political implications, it is still primarily focused on the Asia-Pacific region. If this strategic competition escalates to armed conflict, then it will become incredibly costly to both the US and China. Dr. Swaine presented two future pathways for this rivalry to take that avoid armed conflict. He emphasized that avoiding conflict must involve restraint from both actors, but especially the US. Exercising restraint will help the US achieve several objectives, including a) constructing a new national public narrative on national security, b) reallocating national security resources, c) maximizing cooperation with other nations, and d) augmenting economic openness and stability. Maximizing cooperation among different states, in particular, is becoming increasingly important as the world becomes much more multipolar.
June 1, 2023
Michael Swaine (Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft)
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SMA Speaker Series

Cold Peace: Avoiding the New Cold War

US and China are considered by many analysts and scholars to be in a second Cold War. Dr. Doyle specified that there are four types of political relationships—hot war, cold war, cold peace, and warm peace. If countries are in a hot war, then they are engaging in open military conflict. If they are in a warm peace, then they have mutual respect for each other and participate in peaceful competition that allows for frequent bilateral cooperation. An example of two actors who are currently in warm peace are the US and EU. Dr. Boyle argued that the US and China should work towards ending their current cold war and entering a stage of cold peace. This cold peace would still lack bilateral US-China cooperation and shared legitimacy, but it would involve no subversive activities, such as industrial espionage.
May 31, 2023
Dr. Michael Doyle (Columbia University)
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SMA Speaker Series

Ethical and National Security Implications of Genetic Weapons

At times, biotechnology appears to blend science fiction and reality. The potential warfighting applications of biotechnology and the size of the bioeconomy has made biotechnology a focus point of the US-China rivalry. Dr. Biberman described the different steps and viewpoints of both nations relating to biotechnology and bioengineered weaponry. Since 2006, Chinese military officials have commented on the potential benefits of integrating biotechnology into the armed forces. A current perception is that China is one step ahead of the US. China focused on military-civil fusion during the 1990s and developed a five-year bioeconomic plan for 2021-2025. However, Dr. Biberman clarified that the US retains some dominance. The Biden Administration has acted to ensure the US remains ahead of China, including signing an executive order to advance biotechnology and biomanufacturing innovation. The order is designed to grow the US bioeconomy while also ensuring that this growth is achieved sustainably, safely, and ethically.
May 24, 2023
Dr. Yelena Biberman
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SMA Speaker Series

Cognitive Threat States of Key Actors and the Psychology of International Crises

Studies that use discourse analysis can show both the cognitive and motivational changes in a country’s leadership and the overall complexity of crises. Mr. Morrison conducted research on the integrative complexity (IC) of American, British, and Russian leaders during international crises. Every crisis was examined from each actor’s point of view, so each actor has a different IC score for each crisis. High IC scores relating to crises are associated with leaders expressing flexibility, searching for more information, indecisiveness, and recognizing the legitimacy of opposing views. Low IC scores are associated with leaders’ expressing inflexibility, close-mindedness, and decisiveness. Mr. Morrison gave several examples of different crises and their IC, including the least and most complex. The crisis with the lowest IC score was the Gulf of Tonkin (1964) from the US perspective and the crisis with the highest IC score was the remilitarization of the Rhineland (1936) from the UK perspective. Several of Mr. Morrison’s top takeaways were that crises triggered by violent events are associated with low IC scores, while crises that pose an existential threat are associated with high IC scores.
May 16, 2023
Dr. Larry Kuznar (NSI, Inc.); Tom Rieger (NSI, Inc.); Bradford Morrison (University of British Columbia)
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SMA Speaker Series

Credibility, Organizational Politics, and Crisis Decision Making

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Don Casler (Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs, Brown University) as part of its SMA General Speaker Series.Civilian and military leaders have always been concerned about credibility and integrity. However, they often view credibility very differently. Dr. Casler commented that the research community too frequently asks if leaders care about credibility and not why they care. He also argued two hypotheses: 1) that civilian diplomats are more likely to conceptualize credibility as a metric of reputation than military leaders, and 2) civilian diplomats are more likely than military officials to advocate for the use of force during crisis. He emphasized that credibility itself is conceptually vague and that how state leaders calculate each other’s credibility is fiercely debated.
May 17, 2023
Don Casler (Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs, Brown University)
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SMA Speaker Series

CCP Weapons of Mass Persuasion

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Jackie Deal (President, Long Term Strategy Group) and Ms. Ella Harvey (Public Service Fellow, John’s Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies) as part of its SMA INDOPACOM Speaker Series.The Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP’s) origin is chronically understudied despite its strategic importance. The competitive strategy of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) today relies on information operations and techniques of cooption and subversion that the CCP learned during its first decade, the 1920s, coupled with approaches to conventional warfare honed soon thereafter. Dr. Deal and Ms. Harvey identified three recurring models or phases of CCP strategy: 1) internal takeover – coopting an adversary by appearing to cooperate or form a partnership with it, finding sympathizers in the nominal partner’s camp, and shaping joint activities in directions favorable to the CCP; 2) preparing for a break – exacerbating divisions within the partner’s camp and inflating the CCP’s capabilities to demoralize the partner in advance of a split; and 3) scripted military confrontation – launching a surprise attack designed to enable the CCP to exploit its superior preparation and positioning relative to the partner.
May 2, 2023
Dr. Jackie Deal (President, Long Term Strategy Group) & Ms. Ella Harvey (Public Service Fellow, John’s Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies)
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SMA Speaker Series

Military-Intelligence Relations: Explaining the Oxymoron

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Jeffrey Rogg(Joint Special Operations University) as part of its SMA General Series.The professionalization of the US intelligence community has been a long process and frequently limited by the civilian-military relationship. The relationship between the military and intelligence community has historically been confrontational. This is because spying and gathering intelligence was considered dishonorable compared to conventional warfighting. Dr. Rogg pointed out that despite this, intelligence gathering was mentioned in historical military literature, including Homer’s ‘The Iliad’ and Sun Tzu’s ‘The Art of War.’ Intelligence only became professionalized during the 1900s alongside global industrialization. Intelligence gathering became more important during the industrial revolution because nations had larger armies, communication became easier with the invention of the telegraph, and travel became faster with the development of the railway. The US first created the Office of Naval Intelligence during 1882, modeling it after European nations’ own intelligence agencies. The US intelligence community developed slowly, with military officers moonlighting as intelligence officers in time of war. As the intelligence community developed, questions over whether it should be controlled by the military or civilian sectors began to surface.
April 26, 2023
Dr. Jeffrey Rogg (Joint Special Operations University)
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SMA Speaker Series

Insights on 20 Years of Counterinsurgency Research

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Elizabeth Radziszewski (University of Maryland, National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START)) as part of its SMA General Speaker Series.Through the 2000s and 2010s, terrorism was a prevalent topic of research among academics, creating a deep pool of peer-reviewed sources. A group of researchers from the University of Maryland, National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) conducted a review of literature from the last 20 years on the study of counterinsurgency (COIN). The pool of literature was comprised of mostly peer-reviewed journal articles—such as Small Wars & Insurgencies—75% of which empirically tested models on government effectiveness relating to COIN. The lever of government power most studied in relation to COIN is the use of military forces. Dr. Radziszewski emphasized that understudied levers of government power must be examined further. These levers of power include a) economic, b) diplomatic, c) legal, and d) financial tools.
April 18, 2023
Dr. Elizabeth Radziszewski (University of Maryland START, Irregular Warfare and Conflict Assessment Group)
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SMA Speaker Series

Exploring A Year Of Russian Television News’ Propaganda Landscape Through AI: From Speech & Visual Analysis To ChatGPT

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Kalev Hannes Leetaru (The GDELT Project) as part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series.The GDELT Project provides researchers with many tools for analyzing public discourse through compiling large open-source databases and utilizing text-based analysis. This data is pulled from media sources across dozens of countries and in hundreds of languages. The GDELT Project is working to create the tools to accurately collect data from television news broadcasts and other forms of video, such as Tik Tok and Instagram. Current GDELT tools can identify images, objects, logos, and even some faces in video footage. However, these tools cannot identify the context in which these items are being shown or identify a subject’s emotions. This contextual information gives researchers a valuable insight into the sender’s intent.
March 28, 2023
Dr. Kalev Hannes Leetaru (The GDELT Project)
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SMA Speaker Series

US Military Assistance to Ukraine in 2022: Impact Assessment

SMA hosted a speaker session with Ms. Egle E. Murauskaite (University of Maryland, ICONS) as part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series. The US has given military support to Ukraine as it defends against a Russian invasion. This support includes arms transfers, training for soldiers, and intelligence sharing during information operations. The US has been able to escalate its military support for Ukraine while also avoiding a direct military response from Russia. Also, the assumption that US arms transfers would increase arms smuggling in the region has been proven false. Instead, human trafficking has increased; however, this is a common war-time phenomenon. The aid that US and allies gave to Ukraine before the war has significantly influenced the conflict’s current state. This aid included peace-time military training of troops from 2014-2020.
March 15, 2023
Murauskaite, E. (University of Maryland, ICONS)
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SMA Speaker Series

Sino-Russian Relations: Articulating a World Order

China and Russia are frequently considered to have an alliance against the West; however, their actual relationship is one of convenience. China and Russia’s friendship has only been in place for a short time. Historically, the two countries have been rivals, disputing over territories and boundaries. The intensity of these disputes has weakened since the mid-1990s, however, due to the nations’ new political relationship. Their present-day partnership is based on the desire for a multi-polar world that weakens the US’ status as a superpower. However, their vision differs on how this multi-polar world order is comprised. The difference between China’s and Russia’s world view is the role that each other’s political rivals, other than the US, would play.
March 1, 2023
Garcia, Z. (Associate Professor of Security Studies, Department of National Security and Strategy, US Army War College); Modlin, K. (Instructor, Western Kentucky University)
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SMA Speaker Series

When Democracy and Security Interests Clash: Hard Choices for US Policymakers

The US government’s objectives of protecting its security interests and promoting democratic ideals abroad sometimes coincide (e.g., Ukraine), while at other times, they appear at odds. The US spends billions of dollars per year on foreign aid to support democratic values and human rights efforts. However, it also gives large amounts of aid and support to countries that have weakening democracies, human rights issues, or full autocracies in the name of national and regional security. The US has encountered this dilemma since the Cold War and the Reagan administration, Mr. Press stated. During this time, the US viewed supporting democratic values as pivotal while also partnering with oppressive autocracies like Chile to combat the USSR. The three major drivers of this dilemma in recent years, according to Mr. Press, include a) the US’s interest in maintaining stability in the MENA region, b) countering violent extremist organizations, and c) managing strategic competition with China.
February 1, 2023
Carothers, T. (Co-director, Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace); Press, B. (Non-resident Research Analyst, Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)
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SMA Speaker Series

Do National Security Communication Campaigns Work? Taking a Lesson from the Public Health Sector

The sample size of communication campaigns in support of military objectives—like the deradicalization of a population—is small. However, there is a large sample of case studies focusing on communication campaigns in support of public health initiatives. Communication campaigns assisting public health initiatives are not perfectly analogous to those made in assistance of military operations, but Dr. Helmus argued that examining their findings and best practices can still be helpful. When looking at the few communication campaigns targeting a population for security measures, the results are promising. One key example highlighting this success is a campaign in Nigeria that focuses on deradicalization and changing the perception of kidnap victims.
December 14, 2022
Helmus, T. (Senior Behavioral Scientist, RAND)
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SMA Speaker Series

Russia's New Approach to Influence During the Special Military Operation (SVO) in Ukraine

Russia’s information operations (IO) are playing a pivotal role in its ongoing invasion of Ukraine. Dr. Vartonova stated that not all narratives that Russia circulates in the information environment (IE) should be called disinformation because Russia uses truthful information in its IO campaigns as well. For example, Russian media highlighted that the Kremlin has given NATO an offer to end the war in Ukraine. However, it knew that NATO would most likely not accept its treaty. A more appropriate term for this kind of IO is adverse rhetoric. Most of Russian IO is designed for an international audience; however, it had to also convince its domestic audience that it should invade Ukraine. Russia used narratives such as the de-Nazification and de-militarization of Ukraine—among others—to keep the Russian people engaged. Russia has continually changed the dominant Ukraine narrativeto keep the support of the Russian population. Some of these changing narratives include a claim that Ukraine is creating biological weapons, targeting ethnic Slavs.
November 15, 2022
Vartanova, O. (US Marine Corps Information Operations Center (MCIOC))
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SMA Speaker Series

Artificial Intelligence, Deepfakes, and Disinformation: A Primer

Deepfakes are becoming a more frequent feature in today’s modern information environment. Their increasing prevalence and quality are becoming a threat to society. Dr. Helmus commented that deepfakes are directly contributing to an ongoing modern phenomenon called truth decay. Even images and videos that have traditionally been strong forms of accreditation for information can now be called into question. Social consequences of deepfakes include election manipulation, lower trust in journalism, and an increasing vulnerability of the most likely victims. Likely victims of deepfakes include women who can be exploited by having their faces placed on an actress of an adult video. AI programs, such as DALL-E, can be used to create convincing images from simple text commands.
November 16, 2022
Helmus, T. (RAND)
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SMA Speaker Series

A World Emerging from Pandemic: Implications for Intelligence and National Security (Part 1 of 2)

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Kacper Gradon (Associate Professor, Department of Cybersecurity, Faculty of Electronics and Information Technology, Warsaw University of Technology (Poland)), Dr. Layla M. Hashemi (Researcher & Data Analyst, Terrorism, Transnational Crime and Corruption Center (TraCCC), George Mason University), Ms. Sarah Meo (PhD Candidate, Public Policy, Schar School of Policy of Government, George Mason University), and Dr. Michael Vlahos (Senior Fellow, The Institute for Peace and Diplomacy) as part of its SMA NIU Panel Discussion.
October 5, 2022
Gradon, K. (Associate Professor, Department of Cybersecurity, Faculty of Electronics and Information Technology, Warsaw University of Technology (Poland)); Hashemi, L. (Researcher & Data Analyst, Terrorism, Transnational Crime and Corruption Center (TraCCC), George Mason University); Meo, S. (PhD Candidate, Public Policy, Schar School of Policy of Government, George Mason University); Vlahos, M. (Senior Fellow, The Institute for Peace and Diplomacy)
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SMA Speaker Series

A World Emerging from Pandemic: Implications for Intelligence and National Security (Part 2 of 2)

The COVID-19 pandemic occurred at a time when the global community was more physically and digitally connected than ever before. Mr. Kerbel reflected that those working in the information community (IC) believed that the pandemic would alter their collective worldview and modus operandi. However, he believes that while a larger portion of the IC works from home than ever before, the pandemic did not actually change the IC’s worldview. Instead, while global COVID-19 rates have started to decrease, members of the IC have already started to shift their mindset back to Cold War-era thinking. This is partly because the IC is built to handle complicated issues well, but it is not currently structured to achieve its objectives in a modern world comprised of complex systems. For example, the cyber domain and digital realm did not exist during the Cold War. These developments have led to the addition of an entirely new theatre of asymmetric warfare since the Cold War. Mr. Kerbel also argued that even though some members in the IC believe that countries are going through a phase of deglobalization and that the US is decoupling from China, neither of these hypotheses are true.
October 6, 2022
Kerbel, J. (Professor of Practice, National Intelligence University); Schenker, J. (Chairman, The Futurist Institute; President, Prestige Economics); Brown, Z. (Founder, Consilient Strategies)
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SMA Speaker Series

Voices of China: A Conversation with Matthew Tye

China’s ruling government, led by President Xi Jinping, is becoming increasingly authoritarian and controlling over China’s media environment; however, China’s media and society was not always this restrictive. Mr. Tye’s presentation focused on China’s transition towards authoritarianism, which he witnessed first-hand while living there for nearly a decade. From 2008 to 2012, encountered a sense of optimism overall in China. Foreigners were treated with respect and friendliness, and China’s government relaxed its authoritarian policies in favor of economic growth. Mr. Tye stated that China even began borrowing US brands—like the NBA—for marketing campaigns in major city squares. He also described a strong developmental divide between rural and urban communities throughout China.
September 7, 2022
Tye, M. (Laowhy86 Media)
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SMA Speaker Series

Ukrainian Lessons

Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine was preceded by nearly a decade of Russian propaganda, claiming that Ukraine is Russian and that Ukraine is run by Nazis, and overall, perpetuating the dehumanization of Ukrainians. Journalists—especially Ukraine’s war-time journalists—are playing a crucial role in combating these Russian narratives and setting the groundwork for future legal trials relating to war crimes and sanctions.
July 14, 2022
Pomerantsev, P. (Senior Fellow, Johns Hopkins University); Butusov, Y. (Chief Editor, Censor.NET); Rybak, V. (Analyst & Project Coordinator, Internews Ukraine); Makaruk, M. (Speaker of the International Volunteer Intelligence Community, InformNapalm)
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SMA Speaker Series

Ukraine, Connectivity, and the Future of War

The war in Ukraine is one of the most visible conflicts in history, partly because of the prevalence of smartphones in Ukraine (61%). Moreover, 85% of Ukrainians possess an active mobile-broadband subscription, allowing them to share images and photos of the war instantaneously.
June 29, 2020
Matthew Ford and Andrew Hoskins
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SMA Speaker Series

Russian Information Operations and War in Ukraine—What Can We Expect and Do?

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Thomas Rid (Professor of Strategic Studies, Johns Hopkins University) and Mr. Peter Pomerantsev (Senior Fellow, Johns Hopkins University) as part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series.
March 17, 2022
Dr. Thomas Rid and Mr. Peter Pomerantsev
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SMA Speaker Series

Cognitive Defense Against Massive Information Threats—Our Near Futures

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Nicholas Wright (University College London, Georgetown University) and Dr. Peter W. Singer (New America), as part of its SMA General Speaker Series.
October 29, 2021
Dr. Nicholas Wright and Dr. Peter Warren Singer
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SMA Speaker Series

Cyber Risks in Nuclear Escalation Scenarios

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Herb Lin (Hank J. Holland Fellow in Cyber Policy and Security, Hoover Institution & Senior Research Scholar, Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford University), as part of its SMA STRATCOM Academic Alliance Speaker Series.
October 29, 2021
Dr. Herbert Lin
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SMA Speaker Series

Russian Grand Strategy: Reality and Rhetoric

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Samuel Charap (Senior Political Scientist, RAND) and Ms. Dara Massicot (Senior Policy Researcher, RAND), as part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series.
October 15, 2021
Dr. Samuel Charap and Dara Massicot
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SMA Speaker Series

Compendium of Recommendations for Countering Russian and Other State-Sponsored Propaganda

Countering Russian propaganda and disinformation campaigns is a complex task which involves many different policy changes from both government and private actors.
August 31, 2021
Todd C. Helmus
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SMA Speaker Series

Narrative Intelligence: Separate Signal from Noise

EdgeTheory’s methodology and technology combines human analysis and artificial intelligence to help people understand the theories, conversations, and narratives that shape their world. Mr. Griffith emphasized that people have been having conversations since the beginning of time; it’s the mediums through which conversations happen that are what changes. Furthermore, he argued that conversation is either an actor’s biggest asset or a liability in achieving their objectives. For an actor to effectively use conversation, they must understand their chosen form of communication, understand who is being influenced, and potentially control the narratives around them.
July 21, 2021
Greg Griffith
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SMA Speaker Series

Moscow’s Digital Offensive: Building Sovereignty in Cyberspace

Dr. Pallin commented that Russia’s conception of cyber operations is different than most Western countries. The term cyber is rarely found in Russian security documents; instead information space is more frequently used. Its choice of terminology shows Russia’s priority is controlling the information available to its domestic population. This control, which allows Russia to create a sovereign space online, is meant to alleviate the Kremlin’s insecurities. The Roskmnadzor (Federal Service for Supervision of Communications, Information Technology and Mass Media) was given direct control over Russia’s internet in the case of an existential crisis or war. However, Roskomnadzor had already taken control of Russia’s internet and slowed down Twitter and all addresses containing ‘t.co’ to stop anti-Russian messages from reaching its civilian population.
July 31, 2021
Carolina Vendil Pallin
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SMA Speaker Series

China’s Global Media Footprint

Ms. Cook began by stating that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has always been an authoritarian regime. However, over the last decade, the CCP has further increased its control of Chinese media, the autonomy of private corporations, and the persecution of minority ethnic and social groups within China. To counter the negative impressions related to its authoritarian government, the CCP has launched a messaging campaign targeting countries around the world. Ms. Cook emphasized that China will target any media market, including small markets. Through these efforts, China tries to influence the narrative in these markets by using four tactics: a) propaganda, b) disinformation campaigns, c) censorship, and d) gaining influence over the information infrastructure in a country. Ms. Cook acknowledged that it is not just China who carries out these activities; some of China’s influence tactics are also used by other countries as part of their own geopolitical interactions with other states. However, she focused on China’s activities specifically for the purpose of this brief.
June 2, 2021
Sarah Cook
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SMA Speaker Series

Understanding Policy Responses to the National Disinformation Challenge

Mr. Montgomery began by outlining the US Cyberspace Solarium Commission’s research on disinformation. The research focused on how to counter disinformation from a foreign source and how to make the United States’ domestic population more resilient to influence from disinformation campaigns. These malicious information campaigns have been conducted for more than 15 years; however, it was the Russian disinformation campaign during the 2016 US Presidential election that was the main catalyst for today’s research endeavors.
May 26, 2021
Mark Montgomery, Robert Morgus, and Natalie Thompson
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SMA Speaker Series

On the New War Ecology

Dr. Ford began his presentation by emphasizing that a changing information environment (IE) has affected how governments and their civilians participate in radical warfare (RW), or the interaction between media, technologies, and the politics of violence. He stated that three factors relating to RW have changed the ecology of war: 1) data collection and storage, 2) control of information, and 3) audience attention. Furthermore, many institutions have been accused of not learning from past communication errors or mishandling of data due to their poor data storage, the overwhelming amount of data that needs to be processed, and/or biases held by in individuals within the institution. While the overwhelming amount of digitized information does allow information on historical events to be more accessible and easily stored, it also enables historical data to be used out of context and then easily thrown away. This process of misusing history is resulting in a new phenomenon: “memory decay.”
May 11, 2021
Matthew Ford
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SMA Speaker Series

Improving Capabilities for Operations in the Information Environment: Information Forces and Intelligence Support

This presentation was based on two recent RAND reports, which detail how information operations (IO) can be more effectively integrated into the DoD’s current framework for operations. Mr. Schwille stated that to achieve this goal, members of Congress have proposed creating an Information Force, which would institutionalize IO and bridge the gap between the intelligence community and the IO community. Mr. Schwille argued that ultimately, there needs to be better coordination between the intelligence community and the IO community, particularly with respect to deciding what data should be collected, who is responsible for collecting the data, and who is responsible for analyzing the data. Six types of challenges for better incorporating IO into the DoD’s existing framework were consequently identified in one of RAND’s reports: 1) coordination and collaboration, 2) division of labor, 3) missing expertise, 4) prioritization, 5) gaps in concepts or doctrine, and 6) intelligence authorities. Moreover, four main types of solutions were identified: 1) improving processes across organizations, 2) prioritizing support for IO, 3) training and educating operators in the information environment (IE), and 4) allocating personnel effectively.
May 6, 2021
Christopher Paul and Mike Schwille
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SMA Speaker Series

Russian Influence Operations (IPb) In 2021: Status and Expectations Through Geopolitical Assessment

Dr. Vartanova emphasized that while Russia is enigmatic and seems erratic in its information operations (IO), its actions can still be predicted. Russia’s practice of flying fighter jets over a US battleship in the Baltic Sea on two separate occasions in 2016 is one such pattern of nonverbal Russian propaganda. Russia’s actions and messages are also filled with symbolism directed at both its domestic audience and foreign audiences, representing Russia as a growing world power. An example of this symbolism is Russia’s decision to name its COVID-19 vaccine Sputnik-V to pay homage to Russia’s launch of the first manned vehicle into space in 1957. The use of this symbolism is ultimately to protect Putin’s regime and maintain the security of Russia’s vast geographical borders using IO, Dr. Vartanova argued. In general, Russia believes that the best way to bolster its defense through IO is a mixture of military action; diplomacy; and influence among civilian communities that portray Russia as a world power, an empire builder, and a protector against Western ideals. Moreover, Russia expands its influence in local communities through influence operations online, national media, and growing ex-patriot communities around the world.
April 14, 2021
Dr. Olga Vartanova
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SMA Speaker Series

Success and the Ethics of Operations In the Information Environment

Sir David argued that effective engagement within the cyber domain includes educating users on social media, quick and active defense efforts, and maintaining the ability to launch covert operations that hinder opponents’ operations in the information environment (OIE). In particular, it is important to educate younger users on how to identify false information and understand that most information they see on social media is driven by emotions as opposed to rational thought. Similarly, creating an active defense to malicious information operations (IO) involves identifying the populations at risk of being targeted and then increasing their resilience to disinformation. Sir David also made sure to emphasize that part of conducting offensive OIE is protecting the integrity of the messenger. The best way for the USG and the UK to protect their messaging integrity is to operate with a stronger set of morals and ethics than their competitors, thereby emphasizing the use of truthful information.
April 21, 2021
Sir David Omand, Dr. Thomas Rid, and Dr. Bill Casebeer
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SMA Speaker Series

Deepfakes: The National Security Threat in Context

SMA hosted a speaker series session with Mr. Jon Bateman (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Cyber Policy Initiative), Mr. Tim Hwang (Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET)), and Dr. Nicholas Wright (Intelligent Biology, Georgetown University Medical Center, University College London, and New America) as a part of its SMA IIJO Speaker Series.
April 8, 2021
Jon Bateman, Tim Hwang, and Nicholas Wright
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SMA Speaker Series

Can Democracy Survive in an Age of Information War?

Mr. Pomerantsev began by highlighting a phrase that he believes relates well to Russia’s concept of information: “The most dangerous idea in information war is the idea of information war itself.” This phrase is particularly applicable to Russia because the Kremlin views all communication as a facet of information warfare, according to Mr. Pomerantsev. The belief that all information is used to manipulate contradicts friendly political discourse between state leaders, feeds into conspiracy theorists’ rationale, and forces governments to securitize any form of communication. Furthermore, Russia’s concept of information leads them to view all of history through the lens of an information battlefield, Mr. Pomerantsev explained. This viewpoint was evident even as far back as the collapse of the Soviet Union, when former KGB agents began writing a revisionist form of history claiming that the Soviet Union collapsed as a result of its adoption of Western values, as opposed to political or economic causes. Mr. Pomerantsev concluded his brief set of remarks by emphasizing that the main dilemma facing Western countries is: How do they effectively combat Russia’s disinformation without resorting to the same combative mindset and tactics?
March 30, 2021
Peter Pomerantsev
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SMA Speaker Series

Mitigating Disinformation in a Contested Environment: Frontline Experience from the Western Balkans

Mr. Capello began his presentation by emphasizing that disinformation can be countered by “providing newsworthy quality content” and that a fact-based narrative still has value in modern times. He then focused on the Balkans: a strategically important region for both the US and Russia. Mr. Cappello asserted that Russia has taken advantage of societal fissures in the region while propagating narratives that demonize the US; exaggerate threats to ethnic Serbs’ and Orthodox Christians’ security; and reinforce Russia’s image as a strong protector, which includes building a positive narrative surrounding Russia’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Mr. Capello stated that, similar to a kinetic war, the US cannot be a reactive participant in its battle against the spread of Russian disinformation.
March 10, 2021
John Cappello
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SMA Speaker Series

Masspersonal Social Engineering: Manipulative Communication at the Intersections of Cyber and Information Operations

SMA hosted a speaker session, presented by Dr. Sean Lawson (University of Utah & Marine Corps University) and Dr. Robert Gehl (Louisiana Tech University), as a part of its SMA IIJO Speaker Series. Dr. Lawson presented their material, and both Dr. Lawson and Dr. Gehl participated in the audience Q&A.Dr. Lawson began the presentation by listing the three ways that Russia interfered in the 2016 US presidential election: 1) by hacking the Democratic National Convention (DNC); 2) by leaking sensitive emails to news sources and third-party sites, including Wiki Leaks; and 3) by amplifying information to manipulate individual’s thoughts and actions. Dr. Lawson emphasized that even some domestic actors in the US may have used disinformation practices, including Cambridge Analytica, which was accused of releasing information designed to create voter suppression among minority groups.
February 19, 2021
Robert W. Gehl and Sean Lawson
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SMA Speaker Series

Analyzing Election Disinformation Efforts by Foreign Actors

Dr. Posard began the speaker session by stating that he and his colleagues examined Russia’s past interference in the 2016 US presidential election in an effort to mitigate the impact that Russian interference could have on the 2020 election. He emphasized that Russia’s ultimate goal in its election interference efforts is not to aid one candidate in winning but rather to paralyze the US election system. Russia aims to achieve this goal by halting political cooperation between legislators, further polarizing the US civilian population, and ultimately leading citizens to not participate in future democratic elections. Dr. Posard stated that while the US has been targeted by a foreign power’s influence campaigns before, Russia’s influence campaign has been the most effective due to its efficient use of technology.Dr. William Marcellino then described the research team’s methodology. According to Dr. Marcellino, the team documented more than two million Twitter conversations from 630 unique accounts to create an overlay of the communication network that makes up the information environment (IE). The team created its model of the IE by first using a community detection algorithm and then giving the data to human analysts. Dr. Marcellino stated that the research team was able to identify which organizations communicate with each other and which groups act as communication hubs.
February 12, 2021
Todd C. Helmus, William Marcellino, and Marek N. Posard‍
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SMA Speaker Series

"Standing Under" Stories: Narrative Research Methods for Anticipatory Intelligence

Dr. Cobb began her presentation by acknowledging that her own work builds on and heavily references prior communication, conflict, and psychological research, namely that of Dr. Lauren Kinney (author of Engaging with Uncertainty in Anticipatory intelligence) and Dr. Josh Kerbel (originator of the concept of anticipatory intelligence). She stated that her main finding from these scholars’ research was that an actor’s ability to have effective foresight relating to conflict management is partially reliant on their ability to be reflexive.
February 3, 2021
Dr. Sara Cobb
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SMA Speaker Series

One Belt, One Movie: China’s Campaign to Cancel America’s Cultural Dominance and Assert New Narratives

SMA hosted a speaker session, presented by Dr. Zachary S. Davis (Center for Global Security Research, Lawrence Livermore National Lab) and Mr. Marshall Monroe (Marshall Monroe Magic, Founder, National Center for Soft Power Strategies), as a part of its SMA INDOPACOM Speaker Series.Dr. Davis began by arguing that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is using soft power to try to develop a new narrative to replace the post-war, American-dominated narrative. He then discussed several trends in the CCP’s use of soft power to “cancel” American culture through movies and media. Dr. Davis explained that China looks at areas such as film as part of national power, unlike the US. He contended that China is pursuing an integrated strategy where soft power strategies are meant to accompany the rise of hard power in the country’s concept of its new global role. He stated that his research focuses on China’s accumulation of soft power as a carefully cultivated strategy that has been implemented and is being executed by officials and friends of the regime, with some of the most important friends being business leaders. In his view, the CCP is trying to reshape the narrative by replacing American values with CCP-friendly values.
January 13, 2021
Dr. Zachary S. Davis and Marshall Monroe
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SMA Speaker Series

Waging New Cold Wars: Gaining Advantage in Great Power Competition

SMA hosted a speaker session, presented by Dr. Robert Ehlers (JMark Services, Inc.), as a part of its new SMA IIJO Speaker Series.Dr. Ehlers began by presenting the six goals of his presentation: 1) To foster thinking and action for informational aspects of great power rivalry (GPR), 2) to review key aspects of the Cold War experience that could be applied to modern-day GPR, 3) to encourage consideration of how these large-order factors apply to each member of the audience, 4) to provoke thought about how to exploit Chinese and Russian weaknesses in their messaging, 5) to export these thoughts to action in both the near-term and the long-term, and 6) to improve alignment and organizational structure and processes.Dr
January 23, 2021
Dr. Robert Ehlers
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NSI Publications (Tagged: Communications)

NSI Publication

Countering Terrorism with IT and Privacy Protection

Security and privacy aren’t dichotomous or conflicting concerns—the solution lies in developing and integrating advanced information technologies for counterterrorism along with privacy-protection technologies to safeguard civil liberties. Coordinated policies can help bind the two to their intended use.
Year Published:
2006
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