Deterrence, Coercion, and Escalation Management vis-a-vis Iran: Lessons From Past Confrontations
“Deterrence, Coercion, and Escalation Management vis-a-vis Iran: Lessons From Past Confrontations“
Speaker: Eisenstadt, M. (The Washington Institute for Near East Policy)
Date: 28 June 2019
Speaker Session Preview
SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Mr. Michael Eisenstadt (The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM Speaker Series. During his presentation, Mr. Eisenstadt discussed Iran’s strategic culture and ways of war. He explained that a nation’s strategic culture is shaped by its decision makers’ perception of the world and the actions they take to achieve their goals. Mr. Eisenstadt then stated that US media is currently fixated on the idea of a full-scale war with Iran and the potential for escalation; however, this focus is unwarranted because one of Iran’s primary goals, based on historical precedents such as the Iran-Iraq War, is to avoid major conflicts. Furthermore, Iran deployed as few troops as possible during the Syrian civil war and offloaded as much risk and burden onto Shia militias and Russia. This sort of behavior, Mr. Eisenstadt explained, is not representative of a nation that embraces conventional warfare. He then stated that while one should never be cavalier about the possibility of war, it is likely that this situation will not escalate to a full-scale confrontational war. He cited that over the past 40 years, Iran has killed about a thousand Americans and hundreds of Israelis, yet Iran has not engaged in war with either. Tensions may escalate. Tehran may try to test or circumvent our redlines and/or engage in tit for tat responses, but Iran will still remain at a level below conventional war, according to Mr. Eisenstadt. Furthermore, Iran has historically paced its activities in order to limit the potential of escalation and adhered to both proportionality and the calibrated use of violence. Mr. Eisenstadt then provided a series of historical examples that reveal Iran’s strategic culture and goals. He also stated that Ian has recently departed from its historical precedents in a few ways: 1) it shot down a strategic drone on 20 June, 2) it has gotten more proxies involved than ever before, and 3) the Red Guard is playing a larger role than it has in prior engagements. To conclude, Mr. Eisenstadt offered a series of policy implications and recommendations for US decision makers.
His relevant paper is available at https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/past-u.s.-iran-confrontations-hold-lessons-for-current-crisis
Michael Eisenstadt Bio
Michael Eisenstadt is Kahn Fellow, and director of the Military and Security Studies Program at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy. A specialist in Arab-Israeli and Persian Gulf security affairs, he has published widely on irregular and conventional warfare and nuclear weapons proliferation in the Middle East.
Mr. Eisenstadt served for twenty-six years as an officer in the U.S. Army Reserve before retiring in 2010. His military service included active-duty stints in Iraq with the United States Forces-Iraq headquarters (2010) and the Human Terrain System Assessment Team (2008); in Israel, the West Bank, and Jordan with the U.S. Security Coordinator (USSC) for Israel and the Palestinian Authority (2008-2009); at U.S. Central Command headquarters and on the Joint Staff during Operation Enduring Freedom and the planning for Operation Iraqi Freedom (2001-2002); and in Turkey and Iraq during Operation Provide Comfort (1991).
He has also served in a civilian capacity on the Multinational Force-Iraq/U.S. Embassy Baghdad Joint Campaign Plan Assessment Team (2009) and as a consultant or advisor to the congressionally mandated Iraq Study Group (2006), the Multinational Corps-Iraq Information Operations Task Force (2005-2006), and the State Department's Future of Iraq defense policy working group (2002-2003). In 1992, he took a leave of absence from the Institute to work on the U.S. Air Force Gulf War Air Power Survey.
Prior to joining the Institute in 1989, Mr. Eisenstadt worked as a military analyst with the U.S. government. Mr. Eisenstadt earned an MA in Arab Studies from Georgetown University, a BA in Political Science from SUNY Binghamton, and has traveled widely in the Middle East.
His most recent publications include: The Great Middle Eastern War of 2019—with Nadav Ben Hour (The American Interest, 2018); The Ties that Bind: Families, Clans, and Hizballah’s Military Effectiveness—with Kendall Bianchi (War on the Rock, 2017); Iran After Sanctions: Military Procurement and Force-Structure Decisions (IISS, 2017); Mini-Hizballahs, Revolutionary Guard Knock-Offs, and the Future of Iran’s Militant Proxies in Iraq—with Michael Knights (War on the Rocks, 2017); Iran's Lengthening Cyber Shadow (Washington Institute, 2016); Military Engagement in the Broader Middle East--with James Jeffrey (Washington Institute, 2016); The Strategic Culture of the Islamic Republic of Iran: Religion, Expediency, and Soft Power in an Era of Disruptive Change (Marine Corps University: 2015); Defeating ISIS: A Strategy for a Resilient Adversary and an Intractable Conflict (Washington Institute, 2014); An Enhanced Train-and-Equip Program for the Moderate Syrian Opposition: A Key Element of U.S. Policy Toward Syria and Iraq--with Jeffrey White (Washington Institute, 2014), and; Iran’s Influence in Iraq: Countering Tehran’s Whole-of-Government Approach--with Michael Knights and Ahmed Ali (Washington Institute, 2011).
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