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SMA Publications (Tagged: Middle East)

SMA Publication

US Retain Stability in Post-Kurdish Referendum Iraq

Since the controversial September referendum for Iraqi Kurdish independence, the political stability of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and its relationship with the Iraqi government has been in crisis mode. The political uncertainty of the KRG has been clouded by the de jure resignation of President Masoud Barzani, an increase in violence and protests, and mounting economic woes. The precarious political balance between Erbil and Baghdad is not only subject to the tensions of internal Kurdish affairs, but also by the complex interests of regional and sub-state actors and the looming Iraqi parliamentary elections in May. Contributors to this response largely agree that actual Kurdish independence is very unlikely in the short-medium term and, moreover, that maintaining the territorial unity of Iraq and Kurdistan is critical to security in the region. However, contributors differ slightly on how to approach facilitating and maintaining stability in Iraq and how to balance competing interests from the KRG, sub-state actors in Iraq, Iran, Turkey, and the international community.
Year Published:
2018
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SMA Publication

The Shape of the Future Operating Environment: How Our Adversaries Have Learned to Stop Worrying and Ignore the Bomb

The report is organized around these three overarching concepts – state interest, perceived threats and opportunities, and international activities. The introduction details a theoretical background for each, and explains how, together, they offer a general framework for understanding the choices and behaviors of states in the international system. The concepts implicit in these two questions are complex and interdependent – requiring bounding choices. To stay within the scope of this project while providing a comprehensive mapping of the problem space, we have chosen to provide a high-level overview and comparison of all four states. For readers seeking a deeper dive into specific aspects of these questions for individual states, the reference section at the end of the report includes links to other SMA work with this level of detail. In this report we focus on how understanding these concepts provides a framework for expanding our understanding of deterrence strategy to account for the multi-domain as well as multi-actor nature of contemporary deterrence.
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

Syria Da'esh Insurgency

The contributors varied in their discussions of what a Da’esh transition—or the future of Syria more broadly—would look like. Drawing on work by Gelvin, Pagano suggests that three scenarios are most likely for Da’esh’s transition in Syria. These include the complete destruction and disappearance of the group and its ideology; transition into an insurgent group capable of conducting limited operations in Syria and/or inspiring attacks abroad; or disintegration into a loose collection of former fighters and free agents conducting attacks, in some cases without organizational support. Finally, University of Oklahoma ME expert, Dr. Joshua Landis, indicated that while it is difficult to generalize, the extreme factionalization that characterized Syria prior to Da’esh’s involvement would likely come back into play. As such, we may expect a revived emphasis on the clan or tribe, with ongoing resistance to central government. Landis continued by suggesting that sufficient weakening of Da’esh will eventually enable the Syrian government led by Assad to regain broad control.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Part I: Characterizing the Iraqi-Syrian Conflict System

This is Part I of a larger study exploring the dynamics of the central Middle East conflict system. It describes the system and why it is critical to assess U.S. security interests and activities in the context of the entire system rather than just the conflicts (e.g., defeat of ISIL) in which the U.S. is most interested. Part II describes the analytic approach used to assess regional dynamics and regional futures based on the alignments and conflicts among three critical drivers: actor interests, resources and resolves. Part III illustrates the analytic process applied to 20-plus actor over five of the eight conflicts. The final results are presented in a Power Point briefing.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Info Ops in Iraq and Syria

The following set of responses to Question S3 represent an attempt to distill the input from individuals who have contributed to any number of OSD-SMA efforts in recent years. Giordano’s Access, Assess, Engage (AAE) framework will be used to categories these recommendations. The recommendations are an attempt to distill the concepts proposed in a set of recent OSD-SMA publications . CENTCOM may improve cognitive engagement by producing a broader, more expansive joint intelligence preparation of the operational environment (JIPOE). An expanded JIPOE (Joint Intelligence Preparation of the Operational Environment) could potentially identify the behaviors of target audiences necessary to achieve US objectives, to develop possible psychological effects and leverage operations as a cognitive scheme of maneuver that could lead to synchronizing actions and messages to achieve coalition objectives. Below is a very high-level summary — details are in the report.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Chinese Strategic Intentions: A Deep Dive into China’s Worldwide Activities

This white paper was prepared as part of the Strategic Multilayer Assessment, entitled The Future of Global Competition and Conflict. Twenty-seven experts contributed to this white paper, providing wide-ranging assessments of China’s domestic and international activities in order to assess the future of China and the challenges that these activities may present to US interests. This white paper is divided into five sections and twenty-four chapters. While this summary presents some of the white paper’s high-level findings, the summary alone cannot fully convey the fine detail of the experts’ individual contributions, which are worth reading in their entirety.
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

China’s Expansion into South Asia, Middle East and Africa

Perhaps unsurprisingly, all the contributors to this question devoted attention to the outsized role economics—and especially the quest for natural resources—plays in the Peoples Republic of China’s (PRC) relationships in the MENA region. In general, the consequentiality of this factor trends negative when assessed through the lenses of either a) US policy goals or b) global liberal economic norms. Chow, for example, characterizes the failure of the US to more aggressively push back on manipulative PRC trade practices as “carelessness” and “empty rhetoric.” He also sees a direct line between the perceived cave-in on Washington’s part and Beijing feeling empowered to seize the initiative in other areas detrimental to US interest, such as increased militarization and aggressive behavior in disputed territorial areas.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Promoting Greater Stability in Post-ISIL Iraq, Volume 2

United States Central Command (CENTCOM) posed the following question to the Strategic Multi-layer Assessment (SMA) virtual reach back cell: What opportunities are there for USCENTCOM to shape a post-ISIL Iraq and regional security environment, promoting greater stability? To address this question, in volume 1, we examine the drivers of legitimacy, security, and social accord for key Iraqi stakeholders. In the current volume 2, we provide an in-depth and comprehensive discussion of the key social elements and dynamics contributing to social accord, and tie the social domain to the political domain in Iraq, with accompanying implications for stability.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Prioritized Iranian Interests in the Middle East

Hoping to answer the question of how Iran prioritizes its influence and presence in the Middle East, we asked fifteen experts to list—in rank order—Iran’s key interests, how it seeks to realize those interests, and how successful it is likely to be in the next 18-24 months.1 As is evident in Figure 1, a clear majority of experts consulted identified regional hegemony as Iran’s primary regional goal.2 However, while listed only once as a top three interest, Dr. Nicholas O’Shaughnessy of the University of London argues that the primary objective of the Iranian government is the continuity of the theocracy in power in Iran. “Everything else flows from this,” he writes. Indeed, many of the other interests listed in Figure 1 could be construed as mechanisms for establishing and expanding Iran’s desire for regional hegemony and, more importantly (and implicitly), regime continuity.
Year Published:
2018
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SMA Publication

Alleviating US-Iran Tensions

The US and Iran have the same types of interests — national security, international influence, economic, and domestic political—at stake in the conflicts surrounding Iraq and Syria. However, the different ways that each country currently defines these interests places them on a continuum that ranges from full accord over select regional issues to complete, zero-sum discord. This is an important point and one very pertinent to the question of alleviating US-Iran tensions: Iran and the US do not disagree on everything and national security is not always the primary issue at stake. The most promising avenue to alleviate tensions therefore may be to focus on issues on which US and Iranian interests tend to converge. However, there may be more leverage over what seem to be fully divergent interests than at first appears.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Promoting greater stability in post-ISIL Iraq, Volume 1

United States Central Command (CENTCOM) posed the following question to the Strategic Multi-layer Assessment (SMA) virtual reach back cell: What opportunities are there for USCENTCOM to shape a post-ISIL Iraq and regional security environment, promoting greater stability? Analyses of the security challenges facing post-ISIL Iraq frequently emphasize two central points. The first of these is that any security solution must address the political concerns and goals of key actors. This report is focused on providing insight into not only security factors, but also those political and social factors that have follow-on effects for the security domain. The second point is that both political interests and security interests are highly localized. We acknowledge the tremendous variation in interest groups within the social and political landscape in Iraq. At the same time, social science methodologies are oriented around making sense of such fragmentation, by looking for commonalities within and across societies. While no generalization will ever cover every possible case or variation, the common themes that are derived will represent likely scenarios. Toward this goal, we focus here on the broad ethno-sectarian divisions that are often currently in use in Iraq: Sunni, Shia, and Kurd. Where possible, we seek to specify relevant subgroups (e.g., Shia-led militia, Peshmerga, Sunni tribal elites). While we recognize that there is variation both within and even entirely outside of these groups, the discussion and insights here capture the interests and grievances of a wide segment of the Iraqi population as a whole.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Counter Extremism in Sunni Communities

The Sunni community is not homogenous, and contributors expressed their discomfort making broad generalizations for a number of reasons. Most Sunni Arabs still consider themselves first a citizen of their respective countries with the exception of populations in the midst of conflict like Iraq, Syria, and Yemen (anonymous). Local customs and histories result in a different experience for Sunnis in, for example, France versus Chechnya (Olidort). Furthermore, there is no single Sunni leader (like the Pope or the Ayatollah or even a senior theologian) with religious legitimacy to assert leadership over the Sunni community (Shaikh).
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Population’s Positive View of ISIL

There is ample evidence that by and large Muslim populations in the MENA region and Europe do not view ISIL favorably (see QL 3). However, there are many similarities and a few significant differences among these populations regarding the credibility and salience of many of the messaging themes that ISIL espouses.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

How to Position USG Against a Long Term ISIL Threat

Expert contributors agree that terrorism will remain a long-standing global threat. In addition, there is emphasis on the leadership of the USG as a whole of nation concept. The military alone cannot position parties against lasting terrorism threat but it certainly can shape and influence them through stability operations and other people centric maneuvering. It must work in close cooperation with other USG colleagues and coalition partners to do this while mitigating not only ISIL global impact, but other people and groups that strive to commit the devastating acts of violence. Further the USG should take deliberate measures to lessen underlying factors that lead parties to terror responses. Some specific ideas from this group of contributors include:
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Counter-Messaging to Prevent Radicalization

After the fall of Mosul, as it became clear that Daesh could no longer creditably claim broad swaths of territory for its caliphate, it deliberately reverted to a strategy of insurgency, according to Syrian expert Hassan Hassan.1 Its withdrawal into the rural desert landscape—and to what a radicalization expert, Haroon Ulla, calls the “cloud caliphate”2—has implications for counter-radicalization messaging. Hassan reminds us that when the organization was defeated in the late 2000s, it came back stronger than ever. He notes that its messaging has recently pivoted to attempts to erode trust between Sunni Arab populations and any form of legitimate government. Daesh’s messaging is fueled by the recent memory of the failure of the Sahwa (or Awakening) movement to produce meaningful political reforms for Sunni populations in Iraq. In Syria, Daesh still benefits from the ongoing conflict and enduring Sunni Muslim grievances. At the same time, hardened foreign fighters are leaving Syria and Iraq for other regions where extremism is flourishing including the Sinai region of Egypt and Yemen (Hassan). And, of course, some foreign fighters are returning home across the globe where they can be incubators of future generations of extremists (Hassan).
Year Published:
2018
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SMA Publication

Building Partner Capacity: Iraq

Question (R6.10): What can the U.S. and Coalition partners realistically do to enable Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) to combat a long-term ISIS insurgency? Recognizing the enormous resources the U.S. poured into the ISF from 2003 until 2011, only to see much of the force collapse in 2014, what can we do to avoid making the same mistakes when training the ISF?
Year Published:
2018
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SMA Publication

Iraq: Coalition or Bilateral Approach?

As the United States and its Coalition partners examine the situation in Iraq and Syria after a sustained military campaign against Da’esh, they face a significant inflection point regarding the nature of their engagement. In the United States, policymakers must decide whether continuing to work within the existing Coalition is preferable to normalizing the relationship between the United States and Iraq. The central question is whether the Coalition or a bilateral relationship would best ensure the region’s stability and secure Iraq’s future. A number of the respondents argued that continuing within the Coalition framework is preferable to pursuing a normalized bilateral relationship with Iraq. While there exist benefits and drawbacks of both relationships, it is important to examine the potential contributions and risks of each path for post-Da’esh stability in Iraq.
Year Published:
2018
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SMA Publication

New Iran Strategy

As battlefield successes actualize, decision makers have an opportunity to align tactical and operational policies with a strategic vision. One year into a new presidential administration offers a window wherein actors on the ground can map their plans onto the tone, intent, and objectives of the new commander- in-chief. Despite some continuity between President Trump and his predecessor’s policies, particularly as related to Iran, there remain some significant differences. A wholesale White House-initiated change of approach vis-à-vis Iran has not yet occurred, despite these differences. If no substantive changes are made, CENTCOM is well positioned to build on established success in Iraq. However, if such a change were to occur, it would require a whole-of-government approach; within this framework, CENTCOM would be able to leverage capabilities built up over the course of their engagement in Iraq.
Year Published:
2018
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SMA Publication

Denying the Seeds of Future Conflict

Ambassador James Dobbins and a team from the RAND Corporation contend, “the Syria civil war is approaching, if not a conclusion, at least a hiatus that might be converted into a conclusion.”1 Major regional players—United States, Russia, and NATO—have a converging interest in ending the conflict and facilitating a stable peace, Dr. Amir Bagherpour of giStrat argues. However, despite an emerging shared preference between Russia and the United States on ending the conflict in Syria, rivalry dynamics between Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Qatar, and the UAE will likely have a dampening effect on peace prospects as the proxy warfare intensifies following the military defeat of Da’esh. Mr. Hassan Hassan of Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy warns that the worsening of the various conflicts in the region is still a serious possibility.
Year Published:
2018
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SMA Publication

Competition Short of Armed Conflict with a Regional Power

The experts drew on a wide range of examples from US conflicts and moved beyond a focus solely on competition short of armed conflict (CSAC or “gray zone”) to other strategies or forms of competition executed by the US. The examples offered rich source material from which to extract lessons applicable to current US- Iran relations. Lessons might be learned from relations with Iran itself beginning with the Revolution to the present; the US-Soviet Cold War; the US and North Korea (1953-present); the US and Great Britain during the 19th Century, when the US was a rising regional power and Britain was a global power; the US and China during the Taiwan Straits Crisis (1954-55); US-Cuba (1959-now); the US and Venezuela (1998-present); Central America in the 1980s; and conflict in the Balkans (1991-2000). At the most basic level, these conflicts were battles over regional security or global influence (US vs. Iran, North Korea, Venezuela, Great Britain, or USSR) or ideology/ideological influence (US vs. Iran, USSR, North Korea, China, Cuba, Central America, or the Balkans). By and large, the most relevant examples were those from the post WWII period.
Year Published:
2018
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SMA Publication

Global Power Competition

As Russia continues to challenge United States’ power and influence around the world, its activities in CENTCOM’s area of responsibility (AOR) represent a useful lens with which to view this conflict. In Iraq and Syria, both Russia and the United States (and its Coalition) have been drawn into this layered conflict to challenge or defend the status quo with varying degrees of success and impact. While experts question whether Russia can challenge the United States globally, it can likely operate on the margins of United States interests, with a series of surgical and lower-level policy decisions. To that point, some respondents, including Edward Chow of the Center for Strategic and International Studies and Vern Liebl of the Center for Advanced Operational Culture Learning at Marine Corps University, argue that they do not consider Russia a true peer and challenger of US global influence. Instead of global dominance, Russia is seeking to “marginalize US power and influence in regions they deem important to their interests” (Chow). Contributors agreed, though, that Russia is well positioned to capitalize on opportunities for growth and influence in the Middle East. This report looks at Russia’s interests, actions, and likelihood of success in challenging US global influence through these conflicts.
Year Published:
2018
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SMA Publication

Ally, Adversary, and Partner Use of Space

Given the complex nature of this question and the number of countries covered, the body of this summary response has been organized by country. Looking across all these countries, however, several themes and patterns emerge, and these are presented in Table 1 below. While Iran, Russia, the PRC, and North Korea have historically seen space as integral to national security and defense, the expert responses suggest this attitude is spreading. Motivated by the perception that regional instability is increasing, many other states, which previously conceived of their space operations as primarily civil in nature, are beginning to regard space as essential to their national security and defense. This, in turn, has led to a greater focus on dual-use technologies. Many, not just Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea, also view space as a source of national pride and international prestige. Finally, while the specific organization of the space sectors in these countries may differ, all have fewer institutional barriers to military use of civil (government and/or commercial) capabilities than we see in the US. Furthermore, there are institutional and financial incentives for government and commercial entities to work together. These findings are consistent with the analysis of the experts who contributed to Question 7.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Strategic Implications of PRC’s Base in Djibouti

There are a number of legitimate reasons that account for China’s decision to break with decades of tradition when it established its first foreign military base in Djibouti in 2009, according to Dr. John Garver, Professor Emeritus at the China Research Center at Georgia Institute of Technology. First, China has a strong economic interest in protecting vital shipping lanes that pass through the nearby Gulf of Aden (Garver, Haddad-Fonda, Payne). Notably, China expanded its maritime security role in the northwest Indian Ocean during the 2008-9 financial crisis in North America and Europe—a time when China’s economic growth seemed “unstoppable” (Garver).
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Extent of Iran’s Ability to Influence Iraqi Elections

Iraq is a parliamentary democracy and, as the April 2018 elections approach, political jockeying for votes and influence has already begun. Iraq has a unicameral house called the Council of Representatives (COR). As in other parliamentary systems, members of the ruling party or coalition choose the prime minister. So regional and domestic actors seeking to influence the election of a particular candidate for prime minister must start by ensuring its preferred political party or parties win enough seats to be in the majority.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Multi-Step Approach Closing DOD's Cognitive Capability Gap

The Strategic Multi-Layer Assessment (SMA) team conducted a year-long project for USSOCOM on the growing prevalence of Competition Short of Armed Conflict (CSAC), or use of “Gray Zone” tactics by US adversaries. Key findings from the study include first, the immediate need to incorporate the “human / cognitive domain” into military planning to avoid the strategic surprise that gray zone tactics intend. Second, the study highlighted the current deficit in the joint force of operationally-applicable human / cognitive domain information and expertise. During its final project review, the study’s Senior Review Group (SRG) noted that “…the changing nature of conflict means that the US Department of Defense (DOD) needs to start changing the way it thinks as a whole, and the results of this SMA effort can play a valuable role” in broadening our understanding of the strategic and operational environment to incorporate the human/cognitive aspects of military operations. Reflecting on the deficit in US capabilities in the cognitive environment the SRG asked: “Who is going to craft the appropriate messages? Who is going to provide the necessary tools? Who is going to use these tools? These are questions that we need to answer.”
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Gulf Cooperation Council Stability & Influence

The Qatari crisis that is presently crippling the GCC has decayed logarithmically into diplomatic ultimatums and blockades, with Kuwait and Oman attempting to restore relations between Doha and the rest of the GCC. While the crisis has reached a relative standstill, the GCC is experiencing the “most severe test of the organization’s cohesion in its nearly forty-year history,” (Feierstein) and the entire affair calls into question the cohesion of the GCC and its potential to advance US interests. The GCC has been a fickle partner for US foreign policy objectives in the past and with political infighting and gridlock, Iranian encroachment, and a host of domestic issues, the GCC appears to be on the cusp of a historic transformation. All contributors in this report suggest that Iran is the primary cause of GCC discord and emphasize different causes and effects, as well as different paths of pursuing policy conducive to American interests.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Evolution of US Foreign Policy in Middle East

US foreign policy makers struggle to find the right balance in supporting US interests in the Middle East (Abdulla, Bahgat, DeGennaro, Liebl, Maye, Rogers, Serwer, Styszynski). The unbalanced policies, those focusing solely on defense or certain allied interests, while marginalizing diplomacy and development, are diminishing trust in the US and decreasing its influence—challenging US ability to maintain global stability.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Risks of Security Outpacing Diplomacy in Syria & Iraq

Our experts noted that we cannot say with certainty what the future security environment will look like in the Middle East. The region “is highly fluid. And fluidity means that alliances are temporary and that it’s very difficult to draw any long-term or even medium-term perspectives on what might happen,” Dr. Ehteshami noted. Limited visibility into the future is compounded by the sheer number of inflection points facing actors in the region as each tries to shape the environment in its favor.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Opportunities & Threats from POTUS Middle East Visit

Analysts agree the most serious threat during POTUS’s trip to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) was, in in the words of Daniel Server, “the risk of doing anything that split the GCC and weakened its will to counter Iran.” In fact, he and our other analysts believe his rhetoric triggered KSA’s regional campaign against Qatar and thereby destroyed GCC solidarity against Iran. Further, the campaign, which included the United Arab Emirates,1 Egypt, and Bahrain actually pushed Qatar, Turkey, and other stakeholders closer to Iran countering the effort.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Influence in an Age of Rising Connectedness

A strong argument can be made that we are moving toward a pluralized, multipolar world, in which military and economic sources of power are widely distributed. Technologies (e.g., the Internet and rapid means of mass migration) are making nation states increasingly more porous, and a resurgence of nationalism and other forms of ethnic or religious identity politics has solidified some states and weakened others. Given these properties of human development, the question remains as to how nations and societies position themselves to ride these revolutionary changes with some degree of confidence. The continuance of these factors may change the way that the US, its partners, and its adversaries consider and prioritize influence, both within the state and across interstate borders. The DOD is evolving in ways that demand a more synergistic approach than we have traditionally taken across the human and technical dimensions. To date, military operations have characteristically focused on compelling adversaries through the threat or application of force to achieve victory (i.e. “control”). Changing environmental factors, increased activism by non-state actors, technology, and recent lessons learned suggest that the DOD will be challenged to adopt revised, if not entirely new approaches, to affect and direct the outcomes of military operations. Toward such ends, the DOD will need to focus upon the factors and forces that exert the necessary influence to produce desired behavioral outcomes across complex and intermeshed human and technical systems.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Future of ISIS: What Experts Think Will Happen Next?

At its zenith in 2014, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) controlled more than 100,000 square kilometers of territory. ISIS seized control over major cities, notably Mosul and Raqqa, which contributed to increasing disorder in the Middle East. As late as 2015, the geographic reach of ISIS appeared to pose serious threats to the territorial integrity of Iraq and Syria as well as the physical safety of citizens in the region. Nonetheless, as of June 2017, estimates show that about 90% of Mosul had been liberated as Iraqi forces, in coordination with the Coalition, while they continued to regain large portions of the western part of the city. Similarly, a battle to retake Raqqa is in progress. US officials estimate that only around 2,000 ISIS fighters remain in the city, while US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Coalition forces total around 55,000 fighters. Given these developments, ISIS is likely facing the end of its territorial rule.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

GCC Nations: Impediments to Cooperation

At the time of the writing of this executive summary, the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) has experienced a diplomatic crisis with three GCC member states (Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain) cutting diplomatic ties with Qatar (another GCC member state) and remaining GCC members (Kuwait and Oman) attempting to mediate. This event begs the discussion of factors and dynamics that obstruct or cripple cohesion among GCC nations and possible solutions to overcome such obstacles. A thorough understanding of the threats facing the GCC and more specifically, their limitations in responding to them, are crucial to attaining a vigorous and holistic comprehension of the Gulf region.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Meaning of ISIS Defeat & Shaping Stability

ISIS will be defeated militarily. However, whether it is ultimately overcome by containment or by deploying ground forces to apply overwhelming force, the path to mitigating violent extremism in the region is a generations-long one. Military options are insufficient to protect US interests and stabilize the region. It will require significant strengthening of State Department and non-DOD capacity to help build inclusive political institutions and processes that protect minority rights in Syria and Iraq. Only if these flourish will ISIS — the organization and the idea it represents — have failed and the region been put on a sustainable path to stability.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Impact of Kurdish Independence in the Region

1. How have regional governments responded to Ma’soud Barzani’s announcement of a referendum on Iraqi Kurdish independence to be held in September? 2. How have different sub-state groups responded, to include different Kurdish factions in Iraq and across borders? 3. How are the Kurds using the independence referendum to leverage their interests?
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

US-DiGIA: USG Discoverable Information Terrain

The United States currently faces a complex and dynamic security environment. States are no longer the only critical actors in the international arena; rather, a diverse range of non-state entities also has the potential to affect US interests and security—for good or bad. Economic influence, information control and propaganda, political influence, and social discontent can be and are being utilized by state and non-state actors alike to achieve their goals, in many cases bypassing the need for direct military action. In response, the US military is challenged to accomplish more, across a greater variety of domains, while facing a constrained budget environment. There are two central implications of this: first, many of the most intractable security problems the US faces require a whole of government approach. Second, in a complex and evolving international environment characterized by new and often ambiguous threats, information itself is a critical asset.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Saudi-Iranian Gray Zone Competition in MENA

The United States is regularly challenged by the actions of states and non-state actors in the nebulous, confusing, and ambiguous environment known as the Gray Zone. Planners, decision makers, and operators within the national security enterprise need to understand what tools are available for their use in the Gray Zone and how to best develop, employ, and coordinate those tools. This report summarizes the results of simulations created and executed by the ICONS Project as part of a larger study to capture at least some of the information needed toward that end.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

10th Annual SMA Conference - From Control to Influence

The Strategic Multi-Layer Assessment (SMA) office hosted the 10th Annual SMA Conference on 25-26 April 2017 at Joint Base Andrews. This year’s conference, formally titled “From Control to Influence? A View of—and Vision for—the Future,” brought together a multidisciplinary group of participants to consider how the US and its allies can more effectively counter the influence that recently re-emerging, capable states (such as China and Russia) and non-state actors (such as ISIS) exert on their neighbors and/or third parties through multiple elements of power.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Discussion with NPS Experts - May 2017

On 11 May 2017, NPS convened a panel session and discuss areas related to the 4th round of CENTCOM Reach Back Cell Questions. The speakers are listed below, and their biographies are available in Appendix A.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Panel Discussion on Iraq and Syria

This report represents the views and opinions of the participants. The report does not represent official USG policy or position. At the request of United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), the Joint Staff (JS), and jointly with other elements in the JS, Services, and US Government (USG) Agencies, the Strategic Multi-Layer Assessment (SMA) team established a virtual Reach Back Cell. This initiative, based on the SMA global network of scholars and area experts, has provided USCENTCOM with population based and regional expertise in support of ongoing operations in the Iraq/Syria region. This Panel will discuss the main findings from the SMA Reach Back Cell.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Role of Human Geography, Culture and Language

To begin with a truism, people in different places speak different languages; they belong to different cultures. This is not in dispute, but it remains a persistent operational challenge. Understanding other cultures well enough to successfully communicate and to navigate each information environment means a profound effort in putting ourselves in other cultures’ shoes—trying to understand narratives around identity, political engagement and deeply held beliefs requires looking beyond language and into the cognitive domain to gain a clearer picture of the information environment (IE).
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

SMA Project Noor Programmatic Overview

This video is a brief overview of the Strategic Multi-Layer Assessment (SMA) team’s Project Noor effort in support of USCENTCOM. Over the past year, the SMA Reach Back Cell has produced a vast corpus of knowledge and insight in support of key USCENTCOM questions regarding Syria and Iraq. On its own, this 1000+ page (and 50+ report) collection of documents is a valuable resource, but due to its sheer size and density, it might prove difficult to fully consume and absorb. Therefore, Project Noor seeks to provide USCENTCOM with a quicker, easier, and more effective way to search through and make effective use of this vast treasure trove of information.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Highlights From Round 1, 2, 3 Questions

ISIS will be defeated militarily. However, whether it is ultimately overcome by containment or by deploying ground forces to apply overwhelming force, the path to mitigating violent extremism in the region is a generations-long one. Military options alone are insufficient to protect US interests and stabilize the region. It will require significant strengthening of State Department and non-DoD capacity to help build inclusive political institutions and processes in Syria and Iraq. Only if these flourish will ISIS — the organization and the idea it represents — have failed and the region been put on a sustainable path to stability
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Part 10 Supplemental Transcripts From NPS Event

The enclosed reports discuss wide-ranging issues related to the defeat if ISIL and stabilization of Syria and Iraq supplementary to the 9-part series of SMA Reach back responses to questions posed by USCENTCOM grouped by theme. Series reports may be obtained from Sam Rhem in the SMA Office at samuel.d.rhem.ctr@mail.mil.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Discussion with NPS Experts - Jan 2017

Let me go over the agenda very briefly. As I mentioned yesterday Doc, unfortunately Craig Whiteside has come down with a very nasty stomach virus so unfortunately will not be joining us today.We’ll start with Ryan Gingeras, who is a Turkey expert at the Naval Postgraduate School, and then I will follow Ryan. Then let’s have a discussion at that point, some Q&A.At which point John Arquilla and Hy Rothstein will be able to join us, and they will each speak, John on strategic narrative, development, and information operations more generally and Hy Rothstein on some of the lessons learned in Iraq when it comes to influence operations.After those two sets of comments, we can again open up discussion and Q&A. Does that sound reasonable to everyone?
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2017
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Strategic Multi-layer Assessment Report Card

Strategic Multi-Layer Assessment (SMA) provides planning support to Commands. SMA projects focus on complex operational imperatives requiring multi-agency, multi- disciplinary solutions that are NOT within core Service/Agency competency. SMA solutions and participants are sought across USG and beyond. SMA is accepted and synchronized by Joint Staff (JS/J-39) and executed by ASD(R&E)/EC&P/RRTO. SMA efforts are Coalition based and address mission areas spanning Counter-Terrorism; Counter-Insurgency; Countering Proliferation of WMD (State and non-State); Individual, State, and National-level Deterrence Assessment; and Strategic Global and Regional Assessments.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Part 9 Coalition Views of SMA Reachback Responses

This is Part 9 of a 9 part series of SMA Reach back responses to questions posed by USCENTCOM. Each report contains responses to multiple questions grouped by theme. At the request of United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), the Joint Staff, jointly with other elements in the JS, Services, and U.S. Government (USG) Agencies, has established a SMA virtual reach-back cell. This initiative, based on the SMA global network of scholars and area experts, is providing USCENTCOM with population based and regional expertise in support of ongoing operations in the Iraq/Syria region.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Turkish Interests in Syria and Iraq

The SME contributors to this SMA Reach-back write-up argue that the recent changes in Turkish security policy (e.g., pursuit of ISIL along with the PKK; relaxing of demands for Assad’s removal; warming relations with Russia, etc.) do not necessarily indicate that Turkey’s key interests and intentions have changed. Rather, the shifts should be seen as changes in objectives or tactics that are still thoroughly consistent with Turkey’s fundamental and enduring security interests: 1) containing and ultimately eliminating Kurdish or other threats to Turkey’s internal stability; and, 2) foiling Kurdish (or others’) ambitions that threaten the integrity of Turkey’s borders. Former Principal Deputy Director of National Intelligence David Gompert (USNA, Rand) explains that recognizing Turkey’s dire concern with territorial integrity goes a long way in clarifying what may at first blush appear to be inconsistent policies regarding Assad, Syria, ISIL and even its “traditional enmity” toward Russia. Gompert expresses the message clearly: “…we can count on the Turks to do whatever it takes to prevent Kurdish states on their southern border.”
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

SMA Reachback: Part 8 Post ISIL Governance

This is Part 8 of a 9 part series of SMA Reach back responses to questions posed by USCENTCOM. Each report contains responses to multiple questions grouped by theme. At the request of United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), the Joint Staff, jointly with other elements in the JS, Services, and U.S. Government (USG) Agencies, has established a SMA virtual reach-back cell. This initiative, based on the SMA global network of scholars and area experts, is providing USCENTCOM with population based and regional expertise in support of ongoing operations in the Iraq/Syria region.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Part 4 Actor Interests and Motivations

This is Part 4 of a 9 part series of SMA Reach back responses to questions posed by USCENTCOM. Each report contains responses to multiple questions grouped by theme. At the request of United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), the Joint Staff, jointly with other elements in the JS, Services, and U.S. Government (USG) Agencies, has established a SMA virtual reach-back cell. This initiative, based on the SMA global network of scholars and area experts, is providing USCENTCOM with population based and regional expertise in support of ongoing operations in the Iraq/Syria region.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Views of Sunni and Shia Extremism

Question (R2 QL8): How does the U.S./Coalition view Shia extremism? Different from Sunni extremism? How do Sunni communities, Shia communities, MENA countries, and media perceive the U.S./Coalition position on combatting extremists?
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2017
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SMA Publication

Syrian Reaction to Salafi Institution

Question (R3 QL6): How will the population in northwest Syria react to future Salafist political institutions? Similar to points made by other contributors to this SMA Reach-back report, Dr. Kathleen Reedy of Rand includes a caveat in her response to the CENTCOM question. Given international pressure to avoid Salafi expansion in Syria, it is doubtful she argues, that Salafist policies or leaders would be allowed to become dominant over sizeable areas of northwest Syria. Nonetheless, contributors’ input on the likely response to future Salafist political institutions in northwest Syria tends to align with one of two viewpoints: 1) Syrians will reject Salafi efforts to establish political institutions (i.e., to govern); or 2) Salafi governance will be accepted under certain circumstances.
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2017
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Military Influence in Post-ISIL Levant

Question (R2 QL7): What significance will small military groups, particularly in Northern Syria, have in a post-ISIL Levant? How should CENTCOM best shape or influence these groups?
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2017
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Part 3 Encourage Regional Stability

This is Part 3 of a 9 part series of SMA Reach back responses to questions posed by USCENTCOM. Each report contains responses to multiple questions grouped by theme. At the request of United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), the Joint Staff, jointly with other elements in the JS, Services, and U.S. Government (USG) Agencies, has established a SMA virtual reach-back cell. This initiative, based on the SMA global network of scholars and area experts, is providing USCENTCOM with population based and regional expertise in support of ongoing operations in the Iraq/Syria region.
Year Published:
2017
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Black Swans to Defeating ISIL in al-Raqqah

Question (R2 #5): What are potential unanticipated complications or reactions (or “black swans”) with respect to defeating ISIL in al-Raqqah?
Year Published:
2017
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Learning From the Countries Favorable to ISIL

Question (R2 #2): In countries where polling shows favorable opinions of ISIL (Syria, Nigeria, Tunisia, Senegal and Malaysia), what does this tell us? What do these countries have in common? What is our best approach to influence/inform?
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Recent IO Efforts and Sentiments

Question (R2 QL1): Have sentiments changed since the December 2014 polling? Have recent IO efforts in Mosul influenced these sentiments? What other means can we use to influence?
Year Published:
2017
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Part 5 The Various Sources of Extremism

This is Part 5 of a 9 part series of SMA Reach back responses to questions posed by USCENTCOM. Each report contains responses to multiple questions grouped by theme. At the request of United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), the Joint Staff, jointly with other elements in the JS, Services, and U.S. Government (USG) Agencies, has established a SMA virtual reach-back cell. This initiative, based on the SMA global network of scholars and area experts, is providing USCENTCOM with population based and regional expertise in support of ongoing operations in the Iraq/Syria region.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Part 6 ISIL Support and Recruitment

This is Part 6 of a 9 part series of SMA Reach back responses to questions posed by USCENTCOM. Each report contains responses to multiple questions grouped by theme. At the request of United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), the Joint Staff, jointly with other elements in the JS, Services, and U.S. Government (USG) Agencies, has established a SMA virtual reach-back cell. This initiative, based on the SMA global network of scholars and area experts, is providing USCENTCOM with population based and regional expertise in support of ongoing operations in the Iraq/Syria region.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Part 2 Learning From the Fight Against ISIS

This is Part 2 of a 9 part series of SMA Reach back responses to questions posed by USCENTCOM. Each report contains responses to multiple questions grouped by theme. At the request of United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), the Joint Staff, jointly with other elements in the JS, Services, and U.S. Government (USG) Agencies, has established a SMA virtual reach-back cell. This initiative, based on the SMA global network of scholars and area experts, is providing USCENTCOM with population based and regional expertise in support of ongoing operations in the Iraq/Syria region.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Part 1 A Compendium of Messaging Reports

This is Part 1 of a 9 part series of SMA Reach back responses to questions posed by USCENTCOM. Each report contains responses to multiple questions grouped by theme. At the request of United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), the Joint Staff, jointly with other elements in the JS, Services, and U.S. Government (USG) Agencies, has established a SMA virtual reach-back cell. This initiative, based on the SMA global network of scholars and area experts, is providing USCENTCOM with population based and regional expertise in support of ongoing operations in the Iraq/Syria region.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Syria Da’esh Insurgency

The contributors varied in their discussions of what a Da’esh transition—or the future of Syria more broadly—would look like. Drawing on work by Gelvin, Pagano suggests that three scenarios are most likely for Da’esh’s transition in Syria. These include the complete destruction and disappearance of the group and its ideology; transition into an insurgent group capable of conducting limited operations in Syria and/or inspiring attacks abroad; or disintegration into a loose collection of former fighters and free agents conducting attacks, in some cases without organizational support. Finally, University of Oklahoma ME expert, Dr. Joshua Landis, indicated that while it is difficult to generalize, the extreme factionalization that characterized Syria prior to Da’esh’s involvement would likely come back into play. As such, we may expect a revived emphasis on the clan or tribe, with ongoing resistance to central government. Landis continued by suggesting that sufficient weakening of Da’esh will eventually enable the Syrian government led by Assad to regain broad control.
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2017
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SMA Publication

Regional Interests Analysis

Question (S2): In light of their divergent goals and interests, what are the necessary factors that would permit the U.S.-led Coalition, regional stakeholders (including Israel, Russia, and Iran), or jihadist groups to achieve their aims in Iraq? Where do disparate groups’ interests align and where do they diverge? What can the U.S. coalition do to deny adversaries the ability to achieve their goals?
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Round 1 Questions Compilation

What are the factors that could potentially cause behavior changes in Pakistan and how can the US and coalition countries influence those factors?
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Benefits of Coalition Presence in Iran

Question (R3 QL4): What are the critical elements of a continued Coalition presence, following the effective military defeat of Da’esh [in Iraq] that Iran may view as beneficial?
Year Published:
2016
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Aims of Shia Militias Post-ISIL

Question (R3 QL3): What are the aims and objectives of the Shia Militia Groups following the effective military defeat of Da’esh?
Year Published:
2016
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Da'esh Transition to Insurgency

Question (R3 #2): How does Da’esh’s transition to insurgency manifest itself, and what actions should the Coalition take to minimize their ability to maintain either military effectiveness or popular support?
Year Published:
2016
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Political and Military Progress in Iraq

Question (R3 #1): Are Government of Iraq initiatives for political reconciliation between the sectarian divide moving in step with military progress against Da’esh, and what conditions need to be met in order to accommodate the needs of the Sunni population?
Year Published:
2016
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Influence of Israel-Palestine Conflict

Question (R2#12): How does the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict influence, affect, and relate to current conflicts in the region?
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Iran and Saudi Arabia Influence

Question (R2 QL 11): What major economic, political and security (military) activities does KSA and Iran currently conduct in Bahrain, Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen to gain influence? What are KSA and Iran’s ultimate goals behind these activities? What motivates KSA and Iran towards these goals? What future activities might KSA and Iran conduct in Bahrain, Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen?
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Commerce in the Strait of Hormuz

Question: What internal factors would influence Iran’s decision to interfere with the free flow of commerce in the Strait of Hormuz or the Bab el Mandeb?
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Achieving Coalition Goals in Iraq/Syria

Question (Sim#3): What must the coalition do in the information environment to achieve its objectives in Iraq and Syria and how can it deny adversaries the ability to achieve theirs? Part 2
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Da’esh Move to ZeroNet

Question (Follow-up QL3): The response to QL5 (see Appendix A) noted that ISIL is moving to ZeroNet platform for peer-to-peer messaging, which is extremely robust to distributed denial-of-service (DDOS) attack/other counter measures. What effect could this have on Intel efforts?
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Coalition Activities and Terrorism

Question (S#1): What are the correlations between the US/coalition operational and tactical actions in theater effecting terrorist activity throughout the world (i.e., external events). For example, does the loss of ISIL controlled territory or kill/capture of an ISIL high value target lead to an increase/decrease in terrorist attacks in other areas of the world? Can location, intensity, duration or timing of attacks be predicted from a model?
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Undermine ISIL's "Virtual Caliphate"

As ISIS loses ground in Syria and Iraq, the organization seems to be evolving to emphasize the information battlefront to both maintain and gain support from sympathetic Sunni Muslims across the globe and open a new front against its far enemies. Research conducted by Dr. Larry Kuznar, NSI, showed a marked shift in Abu Bakr al Baghdadi’s and Abu Mohammed al Adnani’s (before his death) speeches in 2016 indicating a shift towards the virtual caliphate. Adnani’s speech first signaled a turn towards virtual caliphate in May 2016. Baghdadi, whose speeches have traditionally focused on the near enemy, signaled a turn toward the virtual caliphate in November 2016 as indicated by more frequent mentions of Libya and Tunisia, decreased mentions of an apocalyptic showdown in Dabiq, and the beginning of the expression of an alternative conceptualization of the caliphate.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Iran's Post-ISIL Strategic Calculus

Building on the vision of USSOCOM strategic guidance documents, the Operating in the Human Domain (OHD) Concept describes the mindset and approaches that are necessary to achieve strategic ends and create enduring effects in the current and future environment. The Human Domain consists of the people (individuals, groups, and populations) in the environment, including their perceptions, decision-making, and behavior. Success in the Human Domain depends on an understanding of, and competency in, the social, cultural, physical, informational, and psychological elements that influence human behavior.2 Operations in the Human Domain strengthen the resolve, commitment, and capability of partners; earn the support of neutral actors in the environment; and take away backing and assistance from adversaries. If successful in these efforts, Special Operations Forces (SOF) will gain military, political, and psychological advantages over their opponents. The OHD Concept integrates existing capabilities and disciplines into an updated and comprehensive approach that is applicable to all SOF core activities.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Saudi-Iranian Gray Zone Competition in MENA

The United States is regularly challenged by the actions of states and non-state actors in the nebulous, confusing, and ambiguous environment known as the Gray Zone. Planners, decision makers, and operators within the national security enterprise need to understand what tools are available for their use in the Gray Zone and how to best develop, employ, and coordinate those tools. This report summarizes the results of simulations created and executed by the ICONS Project as part of a larger study to capture at least some of the information needed toward that end.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Russian Interests in Syria

This paper found that Russia¹s strategic interests in the Middle East are fairly stable. What could change is how Russia prioritizes its interests in the wake of the US election and change in administration. Indicators of change might include troop movement or alteration in leader discourse.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Discussion with NPS Experts - Dec 2016

Topic 1: How the Mosul Campaign Shapes the Future of Iraq John Arquilla, Chair of the Defense Analysis Department, spoke about how the Mosul campaign will shape the future of Iraq.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Reduce Recruiting of ISIL Fighters

This paper addresses the issue of ISIL recruitment from Literature Review Question #3. To do this, it utilizes a quick look format and focuses on two non-standard ideas approaches to challenge of terrorist recruitment. For readers interested in source materials on this subject, this paper also incorporates a bibliography at the end of the document.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Shaping Post-ISIL Iraq and Region

The expert contributors to this paper agree on the relationship between regional security and stability in Iraq: A strong and stable Iraqi government is a fundamental component of regional stability. The key to stability in Iraq is the popular legitimacy of central and local governance. Rather than operationally specific proposals, the experts suggest shaping objectives that USCENTOCM can use to prioritize and guide planning of shaping and engagement activities in four areas most critical for enhancing stability in Iraq: Political Reform Border Security, Public Safety, and Provision of Public Services. While USCENTCOM may take the lead in assisting Iraqis with issues such as border security and public safety, it likely would play a supporting role on the political and rule of law issues discussed below.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Population Support for ISIL in Iraq

Opinion polls conducted by independent outfits in 2015 and 2016 derive the same result: the vast majority of Muslims in the region—both inside and outside of the CJOA—do not support ISIL. In fact, ISIL enjoys very low support as a percent of the population across all countries covered by the surveys included in this compilation. Syria showed the highest level of support (20%) while most Muslim-majority countries fall in the single digits (Mauro, 2015). These low numbers recede further when support is defined as providing active or material support rather than sympathy for the cause (Burson-Marsteller, 2016).
Year Published:
2016
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ISIL Propaganda Effects

There was general acknowledgement among the experts that wide-spread, public access to smartphones has been both a game-changer for both the distribution and production of propaganda materials. Smart devices with web access were also cited by many as the predominant medium by which both global and local audiences receive ISIL propaganda and the catalyst for the fading of former distinctions between means used to communicate with “macro” versus “micro” audiences. Even ISIL messages primarily intended for local audiences (e.g., weekly newsletters) do not stay local; they are digitized and may be found on the internet and thus are available globally.
Year Published:
2016
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Counter Information Messaging

To be most effective, messaging need to be targeted to specific populations, politically/ethnically correct, and entertaining. First, while there is a need for transnational messages (often those that seek to introduce alternative narratives—a mass targeting technique that uses non-linear messaging to achieve desired outcomes [see Beutel and Ruston]), messaging is most effective when it is tailored to local circumstances; presented by trusted, local voices; and in a format preferred by the target audience (radio, television, social media, religious services, etc.). This requires that information operators clearly understand the motivations, interests, and world views of potential adherents (Zalman). Based on analysis of extremist narratives by Scott Ruston at Arizona State University, an effective system of alternative narratives must recognize the need for justice, recognize threats faced by the target audience, must offer some route to glory (resolution), and must offer some subjection to a higher ideal (whether that is family, tribe, or nation). Nuanced understanding of the target audience can serve to not only contextualize the type of messaging effort and its aims but also to provide a necessary constraint upon the expected return of these programs (Huckabey & Picucci).
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Turkish Army Syrian Intervention

There is general consensus among the expert contributors that the strategic and operational implications of the Turkish incursion are minimal: each sees the incursion as consistent with previous Turkish policy and long-standing interests. Turkey’s activities should be viewed through the lens of its core strategic interest in removing the threat of Kurdish separatism, which at present has been exacerbated by renewed Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK) insurgency inside Turkey, its influence in northern Iraq, and the expansion of Kurdish territories in Syria more generally. As one commented, Turkey will prioritize itself. This means preventing the strengthening of Kurds at all costs (including indirect support to those fighting them). It also means patrolling borders, harsh treatment of those who try to get through and/or corrupt practices such as involvement in smuggling. One implication of note however is the increased risk of escalation between Turkey and Russia and Turkey and the US-backed Peoples Protection Units (YPG) that the incursion poses.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Post-ISIL Iraq Scenarios

Question (V4): Post-ISIL Iraq Scenarios. What are the most likely post-lSIL Iraq scenarios with regards to Political, Military, Economic, Social, Information, Infrastructure, Physical Environment, and Time (PMESII-PT)? Where are the main PMESII-PT friction points, which are most acute, and how are they best exploited to accomplish a stable end state favorable to U.S. and coalition interests?
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Influence Future of Syria

Experts varied from pessimistic (chronic warfare) to cautiously optimistic regarding their expectations for the future of Syria, yet mentioned many of the same factors that they felt would influence Syria’s future path. Most of these key factors – ranging from external geopolitical rivalries to the health and welfare of individual Syrians – were outside what typical military operations might affect. Instead they center on political and humanitarian recovery, healing of social division.
Year Published:
2016
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Mosul Coalition Fragmentation

The study team assessed how a change in either the CJTF-OIR coalition or regional coalition could influence the tactical coalition post Mosul and the subsequent effect of these potential fragmentations on the GoI¹s ability to control Iraq. The study team established six potential post-Mosul future scenarios. One future consisted of the tactical coalition remaining intact and the other five consisted of different permutations of the tactical coalition fragmenting. The study team then modeled these six futures with the Athena Simulation and quantified their effects on both Mosul and Iraq writ large.
Year Published:
2016
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Iran Nuclear Deal Implications

Question (V6): Strategic and Operational Implications of the Iran Nuclear Deal. What are the strategic and operational implications of the Iran nuclear deal on the US-led coalition¹s ability to prosecute the war against ISIL in Iraq and Syria and to create the conditions for political, humanitarian and security sector stability?
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Countering the ISIL Fight

Based on the balance of actor interests, resolve and capability, the defeat of Islamic State organization seems highly likely (defeat of the ideology is another matter). Specifically, the push for ISIL defeat in Syria is led by Iran and the Assad regime, both of which have high potential capacity and high resolve relative to ISIL defeat. Only ISIL has high resolve toward ISIL expansion in Syria. Iran, Jordan,Iraqi Kurds, Saudi Arabia, and Shi’a Hardline & Militia, show highest resolve for ISIL defeat in Iraq.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Socio-Political Stability in Syria and Iraq

This White Paper presents the analytic results from Strategic Multi-layer Assessment (SMA) project touching on the Middle East and North Africa. The objective is to suggest options to manage conflict in the region and to facilitate socio-political stability in Iraq and Syria. Options that are discussed are intentionally “out-of-the-box”, non-kinetic, and focused on potential Coalition efforts to:
Year Published:
2016
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Part IV: Results of 5 of 8 Conflicts in Iraqi-Syria

This briefing is the final part of a four-part study exploring the dynamics of the central Middle East conflict system. Part II describes the system and why it is critical to assess U.S. security interests and activities in the context of the entire system rather than just the conflicts (e.g., defeat of ISIL) in which the U.S. is most interested. Part II describes the analytic approach used to assess regional dynamics and regional futures based on the alignments and conflicts among three critical drivers: actor interests, resources and resolves. Part III illustrates the analytic process applied to 20-plus actor over five of the eight conflicts. Part IV presents the results of the interest, resolve, capability assessment.
Year Published:
2016
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Part III: Use Case Analysis of Iraqi-Syrian Conflict

This is Part III of a larger study exploring the dynamics of the central Middle East conflict system. Part I described the system and why it is critical to assess US security interests and activities holistically rather than just in terms of the conflicts (e.g., defeat of ISIL) in which the US is most interested. Part II described the analytic approach used to assess regional dynamics and regional futures based on the alignments and conflicts among three critical drivers: actor interests, resources and resolves. Part III illustrates the analytic process applied to 20-plus actors for five conflicts. It uses the Syrian Civil War as a use case.
Year Published:
2016
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Part II: Assessing Dynamics of the Iraqi-Syrian Conflict

This is Part II of a larger study exploring the dynamics of the central Middle East conflict system. Part I described the system and why it is critical to assess US security interests and activities holistically rather than just in terms of the conflicts (e.g., defeat of ISIL) in which the US is most interested. Part II described the analytic approach used to assess regional dynamics and regional futures based on the alignments and conflicts among three critical drivers: actor interests, resources and resolves. Part III illustrates the analytic process applied to 20-plus actors for five conflicts. It uses the Syrian Civil War as a use case.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Counter-Da'esh Influence Operations

At the request of Joint Staff, the SMA program, in coordination with United States Army Special Operations Command (USASOC) and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), participated in a second Counter-Da’esh Messaging Simulation that brought together nearly 100 Psychological Operation (PSYOP) operators, USG and international observers, interagency representatives, population experts from Iraq and North Africa, Da’esh experts, universities, and think tanks. This exercise served as both a test bed for messaging techniques and a training opportunity for PSYOP operators.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Maneuver and Engagement in the Narrative Space

The paper leverages and melds the latest thinking of academic and operational subject matter experts in fields of organizational and social dynamics, network analysis, psychology, information operations and narrative development, social media analysis, and doctrine development related to aspects of maneuver and engagement in the narrative space.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Bio-Psycho-Social of Violence and Terrorism

This white paper represents the work of intra- and extramural subject matter experts (SMEs) from multiple disciplines, convened to provide views and insights to define and further develop a bio- psychosocial approach to understanding, assessing, and influencing the cognitions and behaviors of individuals and groups that are devising, recruiting, training, and implementing organized aggression and violence. In light of current national and international security concerns, a major focus of this report is upon those bio-psychosocial factors that are influential to, and influenced by the activities of the group known as Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant— ISIL (or Daesh/Da’ish).
Year Published:
2016
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Israeli-Palestinian West Bank Cross Border Issues

This report presents insights from an analysis of a conceptual map, or qualitative loop diagram that relates Israeli and PA sovereignty and legitimacy in the West Bank territories with Palestinian violence and cross-border attacks against Israeli citizens, as well as IDF/COGAT activities. The relationships and feedback loops of Israeli and Palestinian security and political positions reflect those dynamics that drive the security challenges and risks that impact the effectiveness of PA security sector reform and institutional development. Specifically, the loop analyses suggest that:
Year Published:
2015
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SMA Publication

Barriers to Civil Order in Palestinian Security Sector

The origins of the Palestinian security sector can be traced to the 1993 Oslo I Accord, which established divisive security and policing responsibilities between the Palestinians and Israelis and the Oslo II agreement, which codified interim boundaries, including the division of the West Bank into a complex and fragmented patchwork of different jurisdictions. These divisions of land and security responsibilities remain in place to this day and have fostered a unique, complicated, and at times perplexing situation for both the Palestinian security sector and the civil society it serves to protect. The environment in the West Bank is replete with confusion over security sector authorities and responsibilities, frustration over barriers1 to the provision of security and justice, and fear and mistrust of the security sector forces. Moreover, the absence of publically available mission statements and codified legal documents, that clearly delineate the Palestinian security sector roles and responsibilities, adds to the complex situation.
Year Published:
2015
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SMA Publication

Israeli-Palestinian Security Conundrum Assessment

At the request of the U.S. Security Coordinator for Israel and the Palestinian Authority (USSC) the J-39 Strategic-Multilayer Assessment (SMA) Branch undertook a Coordinator’s Mission Review in July 2014 and concluded it in February 2015. This SMA project resulted in an unprecedented collaborative effort among over one hundred subject-matter experts from numerous organizations across the Department of Defense, U.S. Government Departments and Intelligence Agencies, Academia, Think Tanks, and Private Industry. The work of these subject- matter experts is summarized in this white paper.
Year Published:
2015
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SMA Publication

Scientific Methods for Countering Extremism (2015 Edition)

Why are we reissuing the paper collection, “Countering Violent Extremism: Scientific Methods and Strategies”? The answer is simple. Five years later, violent extremism is still an issue. In September 2014, President Obama spoke at the United Nations, calling on member nations to do more to address violent extremism. This was followed by a three-day summit in February 2015 to bring together local, federal, and international leaders to discuss approaches to counter violent extremism. The wisdom contained in this paper collection is more relevant than ever. I encourage everyone to read it, again or for the first time, in whole or in part.
Year Published:
2015
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SMA Speaker Series (Tagged: Middle East)

SMA Speaker Series

Emerging Strategic & Geopolitical Challenges: Operational Implications for US Combatant Commands

SMA hosted a panel with Mr. Michael A. Clark (Director for Acquisition and Technology (J9), USCYBERCOM), Ms. Kayse Jansen (Branch Chief, Deterrence Analysis and Outreach, Plans and Policy Directorate, USSTRATCOM/J5), Mr. James “JJ” Jenista (Air Force Civilian, Joint Training, Exercise, and Wargaming Directorate (J7), USNORTHCOM & NORAD), Mr. Robert C. Jones (Senior Strategist, USSOCOM J5-JSOU Donovan Integration Group), Mr. Jimmy Krakar (Academic Coordinator, USEUCOM), Ms. Lesley Kucharski (Analyst, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory), Dr. Robert M. Toguchi (Chief, Concepts Division, Force Modernization Directorate (FMD), USASOC), Col David W. Walker (Policy Division Chief, USCENTCOM CCJ5), and Ms. Michele K. Wolfe (Senior Operations Research Analyst, USAFRICOM) as part of its SMA General Speaker Series.
January 25, 2023
Clark, M. (Director for Acquisition and Technology (J9), USCYBERCOM); Jansen, K. (Branch Chief, Deterrence Analysis and Outreach, Plans and Policy Directorate, USSTRATCOM/J5); Jenista, J. (Air Force Civilian, Joint Training, Exercise, and Wargaming Directorate (J7), USNORTHCOM & NORAD); Jones, R. (Senior Strategist, USSOCOM J5-JSOU Donovan Integration Group); Krakar, J. (Academic Coordinator, USEUCOM); Kucharski, L. (Analyst, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory); Toguchi, R. (Chief, Concepts Division, Force Modernization Directorate (FMD), USASOC); Walker, D. (Policy Division Chief, USCENTCOM CCJ5); Wolfe, M. (Senior Operations Research Analyst, USAFRICOM)
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SMA Speaker Series

The US-Saudi Arms Deal(s) After Khashoggi

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Professor David Des Roches (National Defense University) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM Speaker Series. Prof. Des Roches began his presentation by discussing the details of the $110B arms deal that US President Donald Trump and Saudi Arabian King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud negotiated during the Riyadh Summit.
January 10, 2019
Des Roches, D. (National Defense University)
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SMA Speaker Series

How Developments in Brain Science Afford Military Utility

The use of sarin gas in Syria and the nerve agent VX to assassinate Kim Jong-nam, and ongoing international efforts in dual-use brain science (such as those described in the accompanying papers) prompt renewed interest in the current and near-term possibilities of developing and employing neuroweapons.
April 17, 2017
James Giordano and Drs. Diane DiEuliis
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SMA Speaker Series

The Shape of the Future Operating Environment: How Our Adversaries Have Learned to Stop Worrying and Ignore the Bomb

In July of this year, at the request of USSTRATCOM, SMA initiated an effort to address eight questions regarding the implications of the increasing numbers, and expanding capabilities, of US nuclear adversaries.
November 11, 2021
Bragg, B
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SMA Speaker Series

Statelet of Survivors: The Making of a Semi-Autonomous Region in Northeast Syria: US Options in the New Phase of the Syrian Conflict

The political overtures made by Turkish President Erdogan to normalize relations with the Assad regime are reshaping the dynamics of the Syrian civil war.
August 28, 2024
Dr. Amy Austin Holmes
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SMA Speaker Series

A Hotter and Drier Future Ahead - An Assessment of Climate Change in U.S. Central Command

Climate-related stressors present significant risks to future stability in countries worldwide, affecting all US Combatant Commands.
May 9, 2024
Dr. Michelle Miro, Dr. Flannery C. Dolan, Karen M. Sudkamp, and Jeffrey Martini
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SMA Speaker Series

Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis (ABM) and its Ties to Hamas

Wilayat Sinai (WS), formerly known as Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis (ABM), is an Egyptian-based extremist group that is active in the Sinai Peninsula. The group seeks to influence the region’s politics and establish a state of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).
July 12, 2023
Dr. Zana Gul (University of Stirling)
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SMA Speaker Series

The Minds and Actions of Devoted Actors and the Will to Fight: A Behavioral and Brain Studies Approach to War and Extreme Group Conflict

What drives warfighters to make costly sacrifices—including their lives—is a long-standing question that military and civilian leaders have tried to answer. Dr. Atran explained that this question can be studied through two different psychological models: 1) rational choice theory and 2) the devoted actor model. He argued that the devoted actor model is most suitable when assessing why people are willing to make costly sacrifices. When fighters decide that they are ready to freely give their lives, it is rarely a rational decision. Instead, it is a result of their devotion to the values that they hold most sacred. Understanding an individual’s sacred values is contingent on many factors, including how fused that individual’s identity is to that of a group. Individuals whose identities are completely fused with that of a single group are the most likely to give their lives in support of that group’s values.
September 12, 2023
Dr. Scott Atran (University of Michigan)
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SMA Speaker Series

A New Asian Order is Emerging

India’s expanding political influence is altering the current geopolitical order in Asia, with India positioned at its center. India’s growing role in geopolitics will over time take away some of the geopolitical focus on the Asia-Pacific region and place it on the Indo-Pacific region. Mr. Soliman emphasized that India’s geographical position at the center of the economic corridor running between China and the Middle East, give it a political and economic advantage. India’s massive population gives it massive economic and industrial potential on its own. India is also in a unique position to build political ties throughout the Indo-Pacific region with its historic and cultural ties throughout the Asia-Pacific and Middle East regions. To further its geopolitical influence in the Indo-Pacific, India is not only relying on its economic potential, but also signing military and security deals with other nations in the region. India is increasing its dialogue with several significant actors in the Middle East: Egypt, Israel, and Saudi Arabia. Finally, Mr. Soliman put forth that Shinzo Abe’s Indo-Pacific vision, an India-centric strategy with a focus on bilateral security dialogue with Australia and the US, is now coming true.
July 26, 2023
Mr. Mohammed Soliman (Middle East Institute)
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SMA Speaker Series

When Democracy and Security Interests Clash: Hard Choices for US Policymakers

The US government’s objectives of protecting its security interests and promoting democratic ideals abroad sometimes coincide (e.g., Ukraine), while at other times, they appear at odds. The US spends billions of dollars per year on foreign aid to support democratic values and human rights efforts. However, it also gives large amounts of aid and support to countries that have weakening democracies, human rights issues, or full autocracies in the name of national and regional security. The US has encountered this dilemma since the Cold War and the Reagan administration, Mr. Press stated. During this time, the US viewed supporting democratic values as pivotal while also partnering with oppressive autocracies like Chile to combat the USSR. The three major drivers of this dilemma in recent years, according to Mr. Press, include a) the US’s interest in maintaining stability in the MENA region, b) countering violent extremist organizations, and c) managing strategic competition with China.
February 1, 2023
Carothers, T. (Co-director, Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace); Press, B. (Non-resident Research Analyst, Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)
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SMA Speaker Series

Transcultural Predictors of Will to Fight

Combatants’ willingness to fight and sacrifice their lives, family, or personal property has altered the expected outcome of military conflicts throughout history. An opponent’s unexpected will to fight has affected the US in many of its regional conflicts, such as Vietnam and Korea. Recent conflicts in Iraq and Ukraine have further demonstrated that leaders in the US and other countries have a poor understanding of what constitutes a combatant’s will to fight and its effects on the battlefield. Most research to understand populations utilize mass survey data collection, which lacks the scientific rigor that analytical study of this topic requires. The research by Artis International uses online tools and social media, brain scans, and in-person interviews to understand what affects individuals’ will to fight. The studies focus on right-wing nationalists in Spain, jihadist fighters, and Ukrainian soldiers defending their homeland.
October 12, 2022
Atran, S. (Co-founder, Artis International; Emeritus Director of Research, France’s National Centre for Scientific Research)
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SMA Speaker Series

The Berkeley Protocol as a New Guide for Strengthening Digital Investigation Methods

The increasing proliferation of smart phones and internet availability is changing the way that digital investigations are occurring, especially in remote areas. While the digital realm has existed since the invention of radio, video and satellite imagery have given digital investigators new tools within the past few decades. New tools and the creation of social media have also resulted in the need for new global standards regarding the collection and handling of digital information for legal purposes. These new standards are encapsulated in the Berkley Protocol. Dr. Koenig explained that the Berkley Protocol—the first international standard used in digital investigation and prosecution—is used to give investigators a starting point regarding the quality standards of information being collected and how to legally go undercover on social media.
August 24, 2022
Koenig, A. (Executive Director, Human Rights Center, UC Berkeley School of Law; Lecturer, UC Berkeley School of Law; Co-founder, UC Berkeley Investigations Lab); Freeman, L. (Director of Technology, Law, and Policy, Human Rights Center, UC Berkeley School of Law)
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SMA Speaker Series

Autonomous Weapons and the Future of War

The use of autonomous weapons systems is frequently debated by countries’ leadership, military personnel, and scholars because of its potentially destructive capabilities.
June 3, 2022
Paul Scharre
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SMA Speaker Series

Barriers to Strategic Success in US Special Operations Forces Counterterrorism

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Katy A. Lindquist (Principal Research Scientist, NSI) and Dr. Barnett S. Koven (Data Science Manager, Deloitte Consulting; Adjunct Faculty Member, Joint Special Operations University) as part of its SMA SOCOM Speaker Series.
February 21, 2022
Dr. Katie A. Lindquist and Dr. Barnett S. Koven
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SMA Speaker Series

Unraveling the Resilience of Jihadist Insurgencies: Lessons from Mosul & the Islamic State and The Long Jihad

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Haroro Ingram (George Washington University) and Mr. Omar Mohammed (Lecturer, Middle East History and Cultural Heritage Diplomacy, Sciences Po University) as part of its SMA General Speaker Series.
November 18, 2021
Omar Mohammed and Haroro J. Ingram
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SMA Speaker Series

Deterring Iran in the Gray Zone: Insights from Four Decades of Conflict

Iran has been increasing its gray zone activities to compete geopolitically with the US and other rivals. Mr. Eisenstadt commented that states which are not content with the geopolitical status quo, like China, Russia, and Iran, will increase their gray zone activities.
October 4, 2021
Michael Eisenstadt
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SMA Speaker Series

Israel After Netanyahu: Anchored in a One-State Reality

According to Dr. Lustick, the current dispute over the West Bank and the disputed sovereignty of the Israeli government will not end in an ideal way for any group involved. He reasoned that the Palestinian government is not a viable authority and because of this the “two states” solution, which would divide Israel, is no longer viable. Instead, the Palestinian authorities are mostly used by citizens of Arab decent to interact with Israeli authorities. The Israeli government learned early on that it could not give anything to the Palestinians, which they would accept. However, they believed that they could negotiate with Palestinian moderates, and isolate extremists.
July 23, 2021
Dr. Ian Lustick
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SMA Speaker Series

The Role of Political Islam in COVID Times and Regional Developments

SMA hosted a speaker session, presented by Prof. Simon Mabon (Sectarianism, Proxies & De-sectarianisation (SEPAD)), Dr. Luciano Zaccara (Gulf Studies Center, Qatar University), Dr. Lucia Ardovini (Middle East and North Africa Programme, Swedish Institute of International Affairs (UI)), and Dr. Rashed Alrasheed (Richardson Institute, Lancaster University), as a part of its SMA UK MoD Speaker Series.Prof. Simon Mabon began by stating that the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic increased dialogue among many of the countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council(GCC): a group which had the potential to geopolitically reconstruct the region. He also compared COVID-19’s ability to improve the region’s political relationships to the softening of GCC geopolitics after past natural disasters. An example that illustrates the enhancement of political relations in the Gulf is the United Arab Emirates’ use of humanitarian aid to improve its own political image by helping countries with less resources early on in the pandemic. However, as GCC countries began suffering economically and COVID-19 rates increased, countries began to point blame, mostly at Iran, and the prospect for a GCC geopolitical renaissance faltered.
February 23, 2021
Prof. Simon Mabon, Dr. Luciano Zaccara, Dr. Lucia Ardovini, Dr. Rashed Alrasheed
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SMA Speaker Series

The Clash of Values in the Middle East and North Africa: Islamic Fundamentalism versus Liberal Nationalism

SMA hosted a speaker session as a part of its SMA CENTCOM/AFRICOM Speaker Series, entitled “The Clash of Values in the Middle East and North Africa: Islamic Fundamentalism versus Liberal Nationalism.” The speaker was Dr. Mansoor Moaddel (University of Maryland).Dr. Moaddel began his presentation with an explanation of the methodology that he used in his research, which focused on shifts in values in the Middle East and North Africa. He identified four historically significant issues that act as features of cultural warfare: 1) secular politics, 2) national identity, 3) religious tolerance, and 4) gender equality. Dr. Moaddel assessed these four factors across a variety of countries, namely Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Tunisia, and Turkey. He stated that secular politics act as a composite measure with four indicators: 1) separation of religion and politics, 2) desirability of a Western-type government, 3) Islamic governance, and 4) Sharia. Identity highlights the contrast between religious and national identity in Middle Eastern and North African countries. It also covers trends occurring in terms of national identity. With regards to religious tolerance, Dr. Moaddel constructed an index that posed a variety of questions aiming to measure individuals’ beliefs regarding Islam and the tolerance of other religious beliefs in Muslim-dominated regions. He constructed a similar index when examining gender equality, in which he posed five questions to individuals regarding their beliefs on equality between men and women. After conducting his research, Dr. Moaddel concluded that ideas are significantly important in bringing about a new pattern of historical development.
October 4, 2021
Dr. Mansoor Moaddel
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SMA Speaker Series

Global Strategic Situation Awareness: Economy

SMA hosted a speaker session, presented by Mr. Pete Steen (Joint Staff, J5), as a part of its SMA UK MoD Speaker Series.Mr. Steen began his presentation by posing the question, “How did the pandemic affect the US economy, and what are the implications for national security?” He noted that pre-COVID, the underlying narratives that characterized the strategic environment were trade war, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), cheap money, and digital surveillance. In contrast, the post-COVID themes will likely shift to include multipolar competition and lessons on efficacy, durable damage distribution, and uneven digitization. Mr. Steen argued that there is a growing narrative that compares the US to China in terms of their effectiveness in handling the pandemic. He noted that this is an example of the ongoing competition between authoritarianism and democracy as a model for society. According to Mr. Steen, China is propagating a message that argues that the tools of authoritarianism have allowed it to manage the pandemic better than the US and democracies, more generally. This narrative reflects the competition for perceived success, not only in the healthcare realm but also in terms of the economy.
December 10, 2020
Peter Steen
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SMA Speaker Series

In the Eye of the Storm: Managing Terrorism and Asymmetric Threats During the COVID-19 Pandemic

SMA hosted a speaker session as a part of its SMA UK MoD Speaker Series, entitled “In the Eye of the Storm: Managing Terrorism and Asymmetric Threats During the COVID-19 Pandemic.” The speakers included Prof. William Braniff (Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START), University of Maryland), Mr. Chris Holt (CHC Global), and Mr. Jerry Smith (CHC Global).Prof. Braniff began the presentation with a conversation on pandemic fatigue and its role in cognitive dissonance in the coming months. As winter approaches, leaders and civilians alike need to be contemplating how best to prepare for the potentially increased impact of the pandemic, Prof. Braniff argued. He then stated that the insurance industry offers a useful perspective to leadership and can assist in examinations and preparations for the coming winter. Government spending is a problem, according to Prof. Braniff, so government preparedness is always at risk and is not inherently sustainable—a disadvantage that the insurance industry may be able to assist with. Currently, the US’s biggest vulnerability is towards influence operations conducted by our adversaries, who aim to use disinformation to control a given population. More broadly, the world is struggling with the dilemma caused by the devolution of the information age into the misinformation and disinformation age. Because immediate science was unable to provide sufficient answers to questions regarding COVID-19, Prof. Braniff, explained that uncertainty opened the door to a wave of extremist and conspiratorial ideologies. Extremists and conspiratorialists have used the lack of knowledge surrounding the virus to their advantage by promoting unrealistic information and ideas, ultimately leading to internal dissent. Prof. Braniff stated that the insurance perspective is useful in combatting this challenge due to its recognition that bad things will happen, its developed mechanisms that respond to recurring problems, its financial incentives for good behavior, its transferring of some risk from the public to the private sector, and its ability to incentivize the collection and analysis of more and better data.
October 15, 2020
Bill Braniff, Chris Holt, and Jerry Smith
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SMA Speaker Series

The Lapsing Arms Embargo on Iran: Challenges, Change, Iranian Military Modernization, and US Responses

SMA hosted a speaker session as a part of its SMA CENTCOM Speaker Series, featuring Mr. Behnam Ben Taleblu (Foundation for Defense of Democracies).Mr. Taleblu’s presentation focused on the lapsing UN arms embargo on Iran. He stated that four primary groups are affected by the expiration of the arms embargo: 1) those who are interested in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA); 2) the US sanctions community; 3) those in the US military who are looking at Iran’s conventional and asymmetric capabilities; and 4) those employed by multilateral or international organizations, or by non-government organizations that do diplomacy with UN Security Council (UNSC) member nations. Mr. Taleblu also provided a brief history of US arms embargoes against Iran, beginning with that of 1979 (during the Islamic Revolution and the Iranian hostage crisis).
October 10, 2020
Behnam Ben Taleblu
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SMA Speaker Series

Maximum Pressure on Iran: Where Do We Go From Here

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Mr. Richard Nephew (Columbia University) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM Speaker Series. Mr. Nephew first suggested that the series of tit for tat events between the US and Iran that occurred after the US decided to withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and restart its sanctions campaign has been predictable. Therefore, Mr. Nephew focused his presentation on what this tit for tat engagement might lead to instead. He then argued that the US’s maximum pressure campaign is likely to result in failure. The two most fundamental problems with the maximum pressure campaign, according to Mr. Nephew, involve 1) the manner in which US sanctions against Iran were applied and 2) the absence of off-ramps for Iran. He explained that the partners and allies that the US has gathered to support its sanctions are not particularly invested in the situation and are therefore not providing much reinforcement. Consequently, the US is relying mostly on the force and strength of its economy to reinforce its own sanctions. The US is also encountering nations who are directly opposed to its sanctions against Iran, such as China and India, which makes it even more difficult for the maximum pressure campaign to be successful. Mr. Nephew stated that there are also tremendous inconsistencies in this campaign. He explained that when a nation has a mission of policing global economic activity and doesn’t have much direct international support, it must engage in frequent sanctions corrections. However, the US’s inconsistency makes it difficult for Iran to believe that the US won’t back out of a negotiation at the last minute. Furthermore, the pressure that the US has put on Iran’s relations with Hezbollah has made negotiations with Iran nearly impossible, according to Mr. Nephew, as Iran believes this off-ramp is implausible and incredible. Next, Mr. Nephew stated that maximum pressure could still produce economic problems in Iran; however, it is unlikely that Iran will face severe economic struggles within the next few years. Furthermore, political collapse does not necessarily go hand in hand with economic collapse, and Iran is fully prepared to use force to maintain power. To conclude, Mr. Nephew presented several broader implications for US sanctions policy involving international skepticism about US intent and reliability, sanctions effectiveness, a reduction in international dependency on the US economy, and these sanctions’ effects on Nordstream 2.
January 31, 2020
Richard Nephew
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SMA Speaker Series

Antecedents of Organizational Sophistication in Violent Non-State Actors in the USCENTCOM AOR

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Mr. Michael Logan (University of Nebraska, Omaha) as a part of its SMA DHS CAOE Speaker Series. Mr. Logan’s presentation focused on his dissertation, wherein he measured the organizational sophistication of 280 violent non-state actors (VNSAs) in order to determine which present the largest threats. To begin, Mr. Logan defined a VNSA as a distinct organization—not integrated into a formal state structure—that is capable and willing to use violence to pursue its objectives. Although there are six distinct types of VNSAs, Mr. Logan’s research focused on terrorist organizations. He then defined organizational sophistication as the degree to which an organization is centralized, formalized, and specialized. Centralization represents the degree to which decision making within the group is concentrated, formalization represents the extent to which rules and procedures that govern the behavior of the group are present, and specialization represents the degree to which the organization is composed of many, interrelated, coordinated parts. Mr. Logan explained that all of these characteristics regulate the behavior of individuals in an organization. He also stated that organizational sophistication is important because as it increases, so does the VNSA’s sophistication. Moreover, as a VNSA’s aptitude for complex operations and tactics increases, so does its capacity for innovation and its ability to inflict violence/strike hard targets (e.g., military, police, government) and soft targets (e.g., civilians, religious groups). After discussing his methodology and terrorist organization selection criteria, Mr. Logan presented his dissertation results that are relevant to USCENTCOM’s area of responsibility. He examined 72 terrorist groups from the region and plotted each on an organizational sophistication continuum. Mr. Logan also found that a VNSA’s lethality increases as its organizational sophistication increases, and actors must have a moderate level of organization in order to carry out attacks on hard targets. Lastly, he determined that organizational sophistication is an observable construct in VNSAs, a practical way of examining capabilities of VNSAs, and linked to increasingly complex violence. To conclude, Mr. Logan discussed the benefits of his research from a planner’s perspective, namely that it can help inform potential capabilities of emerging threats, anticipate target selection based on VNSA’s organizational sophistication, and provide an additional tool for prioritization and resource allocation.
January 10, 2020
Gina Ligon and Michael Logan
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SMA Speaker Series

US-Iranian Strategic Competition Post-Soleimani: Buffers and Drivers of Escalation

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Mr. Behnam Ben Taleblu (Foundation for Defense of Democracies) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM Speaker Series. Mr. Ben Taleblu began his presentation by stating that those who saw a vector for US-Iranian escalation in 2019 will continue to see it in 2020. He explained that there are five domains in which Iran may escalate: 1) nuclear, 2) cyber, 3) missile, 4) land, and 5) naval. He emphasized that Iran is most likely to increase its engagement in the missile and land domains, though it is a bit less certain as to whether Iran will continue to engage in the cyber domain as much as it did in 2019. He also indicated that Iran’s naval and nuclear engagement will remain steady in 2020. Next, Mr. Ben Taleblu explained that Iran believes the US has the potential to engage in three types of war: 1) soft war, 2) semi-hard war, and 3) hard war. He stated that Iran has previously downplayed the US’s ability to unleash a hard war. However, the Trump Administration’s recent introduction of force into the US’s maximum pressure policy (e.g., retaliation for the two US contractors killed in December 2019, the late December 2019 strike against Hezbollah, and the killing of Qassem Soleimani) has led Iran to pay more attention to the potential for US engagement in a semi-hard or hard war. The killing of Soleimani in particular has changed Iranian perceptions of the US’s maximum pressure campaign, as this act jumped several rungs in the escalation ladder and introduced much more ambiguity regarding the US’s capability and willingness to use hardline force against Iran. Mr. Ben Taleblu spoke about the impact that US domestic politics may have on the situation as well, and emphasized that it is unclear as to whether these internal dynamics will create buffers or drivers for escalation. He also indicated that the US needs to be clearer about its intentions towards Iran. To conclude, Mr. Ben Taleblu explained that the American maximum pressure campaign, Iranian regional gains, and Iranian politics—particularly with regards to the three main forces driving Iranian foreign policy (ideology, strategy, and factionalism)—are all potential drivers of Iranian escalation. To conclude, Mr. Ben Taleblu presented four potential dampeners against Iranian escalation: 1) US maximum pressure against Iran, leading to a reduction in Iran’s willingness to react; 2) factionalism within Iran; 3) domestic pressure within Iran; and 4) an increased perception of US resolve.
January 28, 2020
Behnam Ben Taleblu
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SMA Speaker Series

Iraqi Stability and the Impacts of Recent US-Iranian Tensions

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Ms. Christine van den Toorn (Iraq Fund for Higher Education (IFHE)) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM Speaker Series. Ms. van den Toorn’s presentation focused on Iraqi stability and US-Iraq relations, in light of the Iraqi protest movement and US-Iranian escalations. She began by providing an overview of the Iraqi protest movement, highlighting that the Shia-centric, post-2003 order in Iraq is over. This shift towards a new order began in 2015 when the protests began, and since then, the movement has picked up speed and culminated. Moreover, according to Ms. van den Toorn, there are now indications of widespread discontent and a rejection of the current political order and elite. She stated that a range of socio-economic groups and ethnic groups are participating in the movement. Furthermore, there is a strong silent majority that supports the protestors’ ideals and goals, including a complete overhaul of the Iraqi system of governance, as well. Ms. van den Toorn then expressed her belief that this is a positive movement that could lead to a more stable, prosperous, democratic Iraq. This large group of protestors, she explained, are not only seeking jobs, education, a better life, and more economic opportunities, but they are also seeking a homeland and an entirely new political order, free from the current class of elites, who have not accepted blame or responsibility for the lack of employment and economic opportunities. The protestors also want the current political elites to accept accountability for the violence against protestors. Ms. van den Toorn proceeded to discuss how the recent airline strike in Iran and the death of Qassem Soleimani have caused the protest movement to come to a temporary halt. Despite these setbacks, she expressed confidence that these protests will continue. To conclude, Ms. van den Toorn spoke about how the US can assist Iraq’s movement towards reform. She stated that ultimately, US engagement in Iraq is beneficial for both parties, though there is a lack of trust in the US’s provision of continued assistance. Ms. van den Toorn stressed that the US must remain a stable ally in order for a more stable, US-allied, prosperous Iraq to emerge as a result of the protest movements. Although US-Iranian tensions are indeed a setback, an opportunity for positive change in Iraq still remains.
January 14, 2020
Christine van den Toorn
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SMA Speaker Series

Iran Under Maximum Pressure: Between Graduated Escalation and Strategic Patience

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Mr. Behnam Ben Taleblu (Foundation for Defense of Democracies) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM Speaker Series. Mr. Taleblu began his brief by stating that the primary force driving Iran’s escalatory actions as of late April/early May 2019 is political in nature. He explained that Iran has shifted from a posture of strategic escalation to one of strategic patience, and this shift was driven by a change in Iran’s understanding of the efficacy of the US’s maximum pressure campaign. Iran believes that it can outlast the US’s campaign, and it is also attempting to force the US back into the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) agreement. Furthermore, according to Mr. Taleblu, Iran believes that the US does not have the resolve over time to contest Iran in all of the domains that it perceives as important: nuclear, cyber, missiles, and geopolitical. He then specified that Iran has and is likely to escalate in these domains.
October 8, 2019
Behnam Ben Taleblu
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SMA Speaker Series

Divided Society of Post-ISIS Mosul

SMA hosted speaker session presented by Dr. Vera Mironova (Harvard University) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM Speaker Series. During her brief, Dr. Mironova presented the results of her December 2018-January 2019 survey of civilians and ISIS families in Mosul and its surrounding areas. Her research sought to answer the following questions: 1) What was ISIS?; 2) Why did people in Mosul support ISIS?; 3) Who is to blame for the crimes committed by ISIS?; 4) Who should be held accountable for their role in supporting ISIS?; and 5) Who deserves punishment for their support of ISIS, and what type(s) of punishment do they deserve? Dr. Mironova then highlighted some of her findings. There was a discrepancy between civilians’ (i.e., those victimized by ISIS) and ISIS families’ answers regarding whether ISIS was immediately welcomed when it moved into Mosul. Civilians and families did agree, however, that those who publicly supported ISIS in Mosul most commonly did so because they yearned for power and money. ISIS families also argued that some individuals may have joined ISIS to improve the economy, to improve law and order, to fight crime and corruption, and to fight immorality in society.
October 7, 2019
Dr. Vera Mironova
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SMA Speaker Series

FMSO Review of Selected Operational Environment Watch (OE Watch) Articles

“FMSO Review of Selected Operational Environment Watch (OE Watch) Articles”
August 27, 2019
Tom Wilhelm, Charles Bartles, Ray Finch, and Karen Kaya
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SMA Speaker Series

Trained to Kill: Battlefield Participation in Kurdish Fighters

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Mr. Matthew Cancian (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM Speaker Series. During his presentation, Mr. Cancian posed the following question: Can US training improve battlefield participation of our partners? He began by defining combat motivation as “the reasons why soldiers under fire believe that they should continue fighting” and explained that combat motivation increases battlefield participation, which he defined as “attempts to defeat the enemy when under fire, as opposed to non-participation by either fleeing or hiding.”
August 16, 2019
Matthew Cancian
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SMA Speaker Series

Trends in Online Foreign Influence Efforts

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Professor Jacob Shapiro (Princeton University) as a part of its SMA General Speaker Series. To begin, Professor Shapiro outlined three criteria used to define a foreign influence effort: 1) “foreign” (i.e., an attempt by country A to project content in country B), 2) “deceptive” (i.e., masquerading content as organic to country B), and 3) “political” (i.e., possessing a clearly identifiable objective). He then stated that there have been a total of 53 foreign influence efforts against 24 different countries since 2014, 72% of which were conducted by Russia and most others by Iran. He highlighted that many of these efforts have occurred simultaneously, though many were instigated in support of different political goals.
August 15, 2019
Jacob N. Shapiro
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SMA Speaker Series

The United States, Iran, and the Politics of the JCPOA

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Professor Ali Ansari (University of St. Andrews / Royal United Services Institute (RUSI)) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM Speaker Series. Professor Ansari first stated that some of the issues related to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) are a result of the negotiation process itself. He explained that the US sees the election of Iranian President, Hassan Rouhani, as an important staging post in the relationship between the US and Iran. However, to most Iranians, other factors still inhibit the development of this relationship. In 2009, when the JCPOA was being negotiated, the crisis following the Iranian presidential election brought forth serious divisions between the elite and Iranian citizens.
August 7, 2019
Ali M Ansari
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SMA Speaker Series

An Iran Primer

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Mr. Vern Liebl (Center for Advanced Operational Culture Learning (CAOCL)) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM Speaker Series. Mr. Liebl began by stating that Iran does not present a large military threat to the US. Moreover, Iran’s military capabilities are fairly limited, and it does not have a strong ability to sustain military power in the event of war. Regardless, in the context of this conflict, Mr. Liebl stressed the importance of viewing Iran’s actions through its own perspective.
July 12, 2019
Vernie Liebl
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SMA Speaker Series

Interrogating Tensions in the Persian Gulf: Iran, the US and the GCC

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Simon Mabon (Lancaster University) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM Speaker Series. During this presentation, Dr. Mabon discussed the complexity of the broader competition in the Persian Gulf, posed a series of questions about political Islam (any interpretation of Islam as a source of political identity and action) and organizational security, assessed the role that the US can play to bring about peace in the region, and explained how this competition fits into the broader Iranian question. Dr. Mabon explained that the tensions and events unfolding among the Arab states of the Persian Gulf affect the Iran situation.
July 9, 2019
Simon Mabon
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SMA Speaker Series

Deterrence, Coercion, and Escalation Management vis-a-vis Iran: Lessons From Past Confrontations

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Mr. Michael Eisenstadt (The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM Speaker Series. During his presentation, Mr. Eisenstadt discussed Iran’s strategic culture and ways of war. He explained that a nation’s strategic culture is shaped by its decision makers’ perception of the world and the actions they take to achieve their goals. Mr. Eisenstadt then stated that US media is currently fixated on the idea of a full-scale war with Iran and the potential for escalation; however, this focus is unwarranted because one of Iran’s primary goals, based on historical precedents such as the Iran-Iraq War, is to avoid major conflicts.
June 28, 2019
Michael Eisenstadt
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SMA Speaker Series

Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) Iran Panel Discussion

During his portion of the discussion, Dr. Ostovar addressed the following questions: 1) Understanding that Iran wants to operate at a level below armed conflict, what actions by the US would be considered a redline for Iran and why? and 2) If armed conflict arises, where will Iran engage the US military forces and through what branch (Artesh, IRGC, IRGC Qods Force, Proxies)? Dr. Ostovar stated that Iran is operating in an environment that suggests that redlines have been crossed. These redlines are likely the US’s economic sanctions and its attempted oil embargo.
June 21, 2019
Dr. John Arquilla
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SMA Speaker Series

Iran's Military Strategy

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Gawdat Bahgat (National Defense University) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM Speaker Series. During his presentation, Dr. Bahgat spoke about the continuous buildup of Iran’s missile program since the 1970s. He first characterized the program, highlighting that it is the largest and most diverse missile program in the Middle East, though it is not the most lethal. He further stated that, despite the pressure that the US and Europe have been putting on Iran to cease this buildup, Iran has continued its efforts with little hesitation. According to Dr. Bahgat, Iran’s unwillingness to abandon its missile program is a result of its belief that the Islamic Republic cannot exist without its missile program. This is a matter of Iran’s survival
June 18, 2019
Dr. Gawdat Bahgat
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SMA Speaker Series

Modern Political Warfare: Current Practices and Possible Responses

Ms. Robinson focused her presentation on a recent RAND report that examined the practice of political warfare during the Cold War (using George Kennan’s definition as a basis) and similar types of activities today. She first outlined Kennan’s definition of political warfare and then explained how her work applied additional rigor to this definition.
May 15, 2019
Linda Robinson
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SMA Speaker Series

Mosul: The Post-ISIS Landscape

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Mr. Hoshang Waziri (ARTIS International) and Dr. Scott Atran (ARTIS International / University of Michigan) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM Speaker Series.
May 2, 2019
Waziri, H. (ARTIS International)
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SMA Speaker Series

Systemic Shift and the Middle East

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Anoush Ehteshami (Durham University) as a part of its Future of Global Competition & Conflict Speaker Series.
April 25, 2019
Ehteshami, A. (Durham University)
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SMA Speaker Series

UW Countergovernance: Political Warfare in Great Power Competition

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by MAJ Jeffrey Uherka (US Army Special Operations Command (USASOC)) as a part of its SMA NDU Speaker Series.
April 22, 2019
Uherka, J. (US Army Special Operations Command (USASOC))
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SMA Speaker Series

"America’s Foreign Policy: Dealing with Multiple Adversaries amidst Changing Great Power Dynamics"

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Mark Katz (George Mason University) as a part of its Future of Great Power Competition & Conflict Speaker Series. Dr. Katz focused his presentation on the topics presented in two of his recent papers, entitled “America’s Dilemma: Dealing with Multiple Adversaries Simultaneously” and “Fluid Dynamics: Global Great Powers in the 21st Century.”
March 6, 2019
Katz, M. (George Mason University)
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SMA Speaker Series

Driven to Death: An Analysis of 30 Years of Vehicle Ramming

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Yannick Veilleux-Lepage (Georgia State University) as a part of its SMA DHS Speaker Series. Dr. Veilleux-Lepage began by stating that using vehicle ramming attacks (VRAs) is not a new tactic, nor is it limited to individuals of a single ideology.
February 28, 2019
Veilleux-Lepage (Georgia State University)
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SMA Speaker Series

Political and Security Integration of VCAs: Lessons for the Taliban

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Ore Koren (Indiana University, Bloomington) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM Speaker Series. During his presentation, Dr. Koren focused on a “Victorious, Complementary, Agent” (VCA) approach to the reintegration of the Taliban in Afghanistan. His arguments were based on a combination of cross-national evidence from data on groups from Europe and the Caucasus from 1989-2014, evidence from a case study on Israel, and his ongoing research.
February 6, 2019
Koren, O. (Indiana University, Bloomington)
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SMA Speaker Series

On Target: Capabilities, Intentions, and the Post-JCPOA Future of Iran’s Ballistic Missiles

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Mr. Behnam Ben Taleblu (Foundation for Defense of Democracies) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM Speaker Series. After summarizing his main conclusions, Mr. Taleblu provided a brief history of Iran’s missile program and outlined Iran’s inventory of ballistic missiles.
October 18, 2018
Taleblu, B. (Foundation for Defense of Democracies)
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SMA Speaker Series

Out of the Desert: ISIS's Strategy for a Long War

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Mr. Hassan Hassan (The Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM Speaker Series. During his presentation, Mr. Hassan spoke about how ISIS will likely model its new strategy after its 2008 strategy, which was implemented at a time when the organization did not have a territorial caliphate and operated primarily underground.
October 2, 2018
Hassan, H. (The Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy)
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SMA Speaker Series

SMA CENTCOM (Afghanistan) Panel Discussion

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by BG (Ret.) Feroz Khan (NPS), AMB Hamdullah Mohib (Afghan Ambassador to the United States), Dr. Afshon Ostovar (NPS), Dr. Christopher Twomey (NPS), and moderator, Dr. Hy Rothstein (NPS) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM (Afghanistan) Speaker Series. AMB Mohib first provided his insights on the Afghan peace process and emphasized that US decision makers must keep in mind that the Afghanistan we are dealing with today is not the Afghanistan we dealt with in 2001 or even in 2013. BG (Ret.) Khan then offered a Pakistani perspective and clarified some of the myths and truths about Pakistan’s involvement in and views towards Afghanistan. Dr. Ostovar proceeded to discuss Iran’s interests and key issues in the region. Dr. Twomey then spoke about how China is less interested in Afghanistan than it is in Pakistan, due largely to its security rivalry with India. To conclude the discussion, the panelists commented on noteworthy points brought up during each other’s presentations.
June 13, 2018
Feroz Khan, Hamdullah Mohib, Dr. Christopher Twomey, and Dr. Afshon Ostovar
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SMA Speaker Series

Iraqi Kurdistan Politics and Erbil-Baghdad Relations After May 12 Elections

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Ms. Christine van den Toorn (American University of Iraq, Sulaimani) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM Speaker Series. During this session, Ms. Van den Toorn discussed three important takeaways from the recent election in Iraq. First, Iran’s influence is becoming both increasingly relevant and significant (e.g., Iran likely played a role in the Iraqi election campaign). Second, given the low Kurdish voter turnout and fraud allegations associated with the elections, the election results do not seem to reflect the real dynamics in the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and moreover triggered a huge shift in popular Kurdish sentiment. Third, there is a serious potential for instability now in the KRG, and there likely will be continued strain on Erbil-Baghdad relations as well. Ms. Van den Toorn concluded the session by assessing what the US could do to manage the impending violence and stability in the region.
June 12, 2018
Christine van den Toorn
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SMA Speaker Series

Network Analysis of Middle Eastern Regional Conflict: NSI Podcast 01

NSI just released its inaugural podcast, which features a previous SMA speaker session presented by Dr. Larry Kuznar (NSI / Indiana University- Purdue University- Fort Wayne), Dr. Allison Astorino-Courtois (NSI), and Mr. Adam Jonas (TRADOC). During this podcast, the speakers discuss their analysis of Middle East conflict and interest networks using social network analysis techniques and measures. Notable findings include the defeat of Daesh on the regional system as the prelude to broader conflict through previously unlikely alliances, cutting across ethno-religious lines. This and other points are discussed in the context of policy implications for DOD and application to the CENTCOM Reach Back effort.
June 2, 2018
Dr. Larry Kuznar, Dr. Allison Astorino-Courtois, and Adam Jonas
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NSI Publications (Tagged: Middle East)

NSI Publication

Moral Emotions - Predicting Political Attitudes

A web-based study of 393 undergraduates at a public university in the United States was conducted to examine the relationship between moral emotions (i.e., emotions that motivate prosocial tendencies) and support for political actions to assist Iraqi citizens after the Second Gulf War (2003–2004).
Year Published:
2007
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NSI Publication

Russian and Chinese Influence in Iran: Sources and Future Trends

Among all the experts interviewed for this report, there was a general consensus that relations between Iran and both Russia and China are driven by pragmatic considerations. Many described the Iran-Russia and Iran- China relationships as primarily transactional, with each having something concrete the other needs to meet their domestic economic growth and development needs.
Year Published:
2020
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NSI Publication

IRGC’s Role in the Black Economy

While official data do not exist, the informal (black) economy is estimated to be 35-44 percent of Iran’s stated gross domestic product (GDP), or some 160-200 billion USD.
Year Published:
2020
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NSI Publication

Regime Stability in Iran: The COVID-19 Effect

Iran appears to have been hit hard by the COVID-19 virus, and there has been criticism both within and outside the country over the Iranian regime’s response. The subject matter experts (SMEs) who responded to this question, however, do not think it likely that the pandemic will have novel direct effects on the stability of the Iranian regime, either in the short term or further out.
Year Published:
2020
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NSI Publication

A New US-Iran Nuclear Agreement: What are the Chances?

Most of the expert contributors agree that, though not a certainty, it appears likely that Iran will be willing to reengage in some form of nuclear negotiations with the United States at some point over the next five years.
Year Published:
2020
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NSI Publication

Internal Instability in Iran: Drivers and Regime Response

There was consensus among the subject matter experts (SMEs) who responded to this question that the primary driver of internal instability in Iran is the dismal state of the economy.
Year Published:
2020
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NSI Publication

IRGC-QF Malfeasant Activity Outside of the CENTCOM AOR

Experts interviewed state that they could find no evidence of recent changes in IRGC-QF activity outside of the CENTCOM area of responsibility (AOR). However, there are micro-trends that are of note, particularly for analysts focused on high risk, low probability events.
Year Published:
2020
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NSI Publication

Iran’s Ballistic Missile Launch Criteria: Change or Continuity?

The experts interviewed for this study do not see Iran’s recent operational use of its ballistic missiles as signaling a fundamental change in its foreign policy, which they characterize as deliberate, defensive, and with a long time horizon.
Year Published:
2020
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NSI Publication

The Abraham Accords and Iran’s Unconventional Warfare Activities

The Abraham Accords normalizing diplomatic and economic relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Israel and Bahrain, as well as a less robust agreement with Sudan, represent a historic turning point for Israel. Together with the Camp David Accords (Egypt) and the 1994 Peace Accord (Jordan), the Abraham Accords bring to five the number of Arab states that have officially recognized Israel’s right to exist—a claim that states in the Gulf and Near East have denied since Israel was founded.
Year Published:
2020
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NSI Publication

Gray Zone Trends in Colombia, Libya and Ukraine

This report employs frequentist statistical analysis in order to model the effects of various factors, including the type of actors (state, violent non-state actor (VNSA) or civilian) involved and the prevalence of kinetic activity, on (de-)escalatory trends in Gray Zone conflicts.
Year Published:
2017
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