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SMA Publications (Tagged: Iran)

SMA Publication

The Shape of the Future Operating Environment: How Our Adversaries Have Learned to Stop Worrying and Ignore the Bomb

The report is organized around these three overarching concepts – state interest, perceived threats and opportunities, and international activities. The introduction details a theoretical background for each, and explains how, together, they offer a general framework for understanding the choices and behaviors of states in the international system. The concepts implicit in these two questions are complex and interdependent – requiring bounding choices. To stay within the scope of this project while providing a comprehensive mapping of the problem space, we have chosen to provide a high-level overview and comparison of all four states. For readers seeking a deeper dive into specific aspects of these questions for individual states, the reference section at the end of the report includes links to other SMA work with this level of detail. In this report we focus on how understanding these concepts provides a framework for expanding our understanding of deterrence strategy to account for the multi-domain as well as multi-actor nature of contemporary deterrence.
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

Prioritized Iranian Interests in the Middle East

Hoping to answer the question of how Iran prioritizes its influence and presence in the Middle East, we asked fifteen experts to list—in rank order—Iran’s key interests, how it seeks to realize those interests, and how successful it is likely to be in the next 18-24 months.1 As is evident in Figure 1, a clear majority of experts consulted identified regional hegemony as Iran’s primary regional goal.2 However, while listed only once as a top three interest, Dr. Nicholas O’Shaughnessy of the University of London argues that the primary objective of the Iranian government is the continuity of the theocracy in power in Iran. “Everything else flows from this,” he writes. Indeed, many of the other interests listed in Figure 1 could be construed as mechanisms for establishing and expanding Iran’s desire for regional hegemony and, more importantly (and implicitly), regime continuity.
Year Published:
2018
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SMA Publication

Alleviating US-Iran Tensions

The US and Iran have the same types of interests — national security, international influence, economic, and domestic political—at stake in the conflicts surrounding Iraq and Syria. However, the different ways that each country currently defines these interests places them on a continuum that ranges from full accord over select regional issues to complete, zero-sum discord. This is an important point and one very pertinent to the question of alleviating US-Iran tensions: Iran and the US do not disagree on everything and national security is not always the primary issue at stake. The most promising avenue to alleviate tensions therefore may be to focus on issues on which US and Iranian interests tend to converge. However, there may be more leverage over what seem to be fully divergent interests than at first appears.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

New Iran Strategy

As battlefield successes actualize, decision makers have an opportunity to align tactical and operational policies with a strategic vision. One year into a new presidential administration offers a window wherein actors on the ground can map their plans onto the tone, intent, and objectives of the new commander- in-chief. Despite some continuity between President Trump and his predecessor’s policies, particularly as related to Iran, there remain some significant differences. A wholesale White House-initiated change of approach vis-à-vis Iran has not yet occurred, despite these differences. If no substantive changes are made, CENTCOM is well positioned to build on established success in Iraq. However, if such a change were to occur, it would require a whole-of-government approach; within this framework, CENTCOM would be able to leverage capabilities built up over the course of their engagement in Iraq.
Year Published:
2018
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SMA Publication

Competition Short of Armed Conflict with a Regional Power

The experts drew on a wide range of examples from US conflicts and moved beyond a focus solely on competition short of armed conflict (CSAC or “gray zone”) to other strategies or forms of competition executed by the US. The examples offered rich source material from which to extract lessons applicable to current US- Iran relations. Lessons might be learned from relations with Iran itself beginning with the Revolution to the present; the US-Soviet Cold War; the US and North Korea (1953-present); the US and Great Britain during the 19th Century, when the US was a rising regional power and Britain was a global power; the US and China during the Taiwan Straits Crisis (1954-55); US-Cuba (1959-now); the US and Venezuela (1998-present); Central America in the 1980s; and conflict in the Balkans (1991-2000). At the most basic level, these conflicts were battles over regional security or global influence (US vs. Iran, North Korea, Venezuela, Great Britain, or USSR) or ideology/ideological influence (US vs. Iran, USSR, North Korea, China, Cuba, Central America, or the Balkans). By and large, the most relevant examples were those from the post WWII period.
Year Published:
2018
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SMA Publication

Ally, Adversary, and Partner Use of Space

Given the complex nature of this question and the number of countries covered, the body of this summary response has been organized by country. Looking across all these countries, however, several themes and patterns emerge, and these are presented in Table 1 below. While Iran, Russia, the PRC, and North Korea have historically seen space as integral to national security and defense, the expert responses suggest this attitude is spreading. Motivated by the perception that regional instability is increasing, many other states, which previously conceived of their space operations as primarily civil in nature, are beginning to regard space as essential to their national security and defense. This, in turn, has led to a greater focus on dual-use technologies. Many, not just Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea, also view space as a source of national pride and international prestige. Finally, while the specific organization of the space sectors in these countries may differ, all have fewer institutional barriers to military use of civil (government and/or commercial) capabilities than we see in the US. Furthermore, there are institutional and financial incentives for government and commercial entities to work together. These findings are consistent with the analysis of the experts who contributed to Question 7.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Strategic Implications of PRC’s Base in Djibouti

There are a number of legitimate reasons that account for China’s decision to break with decades of tradition when it established its first foreign military base in Djibouti in 2009, according to Dr. John Garver, Professor Emeritus at the China Research Center at Georgia Institute of Technology. First, China has a strong economic interest in protecting vital shipping lanes that pass through the nearby Gulf of Aden (Garver, Haddad-Fonda, Payne). Notably, China expanded its maritime security role in the northwest Indian Ocean during the 2008-9 financial crisis in North America and Europe—a time when China’s economic growth seemed “unstoppable” (Garver).
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Extent of Iran’s Ability to Influence Iraqi Elections

Iraq is a parliamentary democracy and, as the April 2018 elections approach, political jockeying for votes and influence has already begun. Iraq has a unicameral house called the Council of Representatives (COR). As in other parliamentary systems, members of the ruling party or coalition choose the prime minister. So regional and domestic actors seeking to influence the election of a particular candidate for prime minister must start by ensuring its preferred political party or parties win enough seats to be in the majority.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Saudi-Iranian Gray Zone Competition in MENA

The United States is regularly challenged by the actions of states and non-state actors in the nebulous, confusing, and ambiguous environment known as the Gray Zone. Planners, decision makers, and operators within the national security enterprise need to understand what tools are available for their use in the Gray Zone and how to best develop, employ, and coordinate those tools. This report summarizes the results of simulations created and executed by the ICONS Project as part of a larger study to capture at least some of the information needed toward that end.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Discussion with NPS Experts - May 2017

On 11 May 2017, NPS convened a panel session and discuss areas related to the 4th round of CENTCOM Reach Back Cell Questions. The speakers are listed below, and their biographies are available in Appendix A.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Part 4 Actor Interests and Motivations

This is Part 4 of a 9 part series of SMA Reach back responses to questions posed by USCENTCOM. Each report contains responses to multiple questions grouped by theme. At the request of United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), the Joint Staff, jointly with other elements in the JS, Services, and U.S. Government (USG) Agencies, has established a SMA virtual reach-back cell. This initiative, based on the SMA global network of scholars and area experts, is providing USCENTCOM with population based and regional expertise in support of ongoing operations in the Iraq/Syria region.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Part 3 Encourage Regional Stability

This is Part 3 of a 9 part series of SMA Reach back responses to questions posed by USCENTCOM. Each report contains responses to multiple questions grouped by theme. At the request of United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), the Joint Staff, jointly with other elements in the JS, Services, and U.S. Government (USG) Agencies, has established a SMA virtual reach-back cell. This initiative, based on the SMA global network of scholars and area experts, is providing USCENTCOM with population based and regional expertise in support of ongoing operations in the Iraq/Syria region.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Part 2 Learning From the Fight Against ISIS

This is Part 2 of a 9 part series of SMA Reach back responses to questions posed by USCENTCOM. Each report contains responses to multiple questions grouped by theme. At the request of United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), the Joint Staff, jointly with other elements in the JS, Services, and U.S. Government (USG) Agencies, has established a SMA virtual reach-back cell. This initiative, based on the SMA global network of scholars and area experts, is providing USCENTCOM with population based and regional expertise in support of ongoing operations in the Iraq/Syria region.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Regional Interests Analysis

Question (S2): In light of their divergent goals and interests, what are the necessary factors that would permit the U.S.-led Coalition, regional stakeholders (including Israel, Russia, and Iran), or jihadist groups to achieve their aims in Iraq? Where do disparate groups’ interests align and where do they diverge? What can the U.S. coalition do to deny adversaries the ability to achieve their goals?
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Round 1 Questions Compilation

What are the factors that could potentially cause behavior changes in Pakistan and how can the US and coalition countries influence those factors?
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Benefits of Coalition Presence in Iran

Question (R3 QL4): What are the critical elements of a continued Coalition presence, following the effective military defeat of Da’esh [in Iraq] that Iran may view as beneficial?
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Iran and Saudi Arabia Influence

Question (R2 QL 11): What major economic, political and security (military) activities does KSA and Iran currently conduct in Bahrain, Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen to gain influence? What are KSA and Iran’s ultimate goals behind these activities? What motivates KSA and Iran towards these goals? What future activities might KSA and Iran conduct in Bahrain, Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen?
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Commerce in the Strait of Hormuz

Question: What internal factors would influence Iran’s decision to interfere with the free flow of commerce in the Strait of Hormuz or the Bab el Mandeb?
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Iran's Post-ISIL Strategic Calculus

Building on the vision of USSOCOM strategic guidance documents, the Operating in the Human Domain (OHD) Concept describes the mindset and approaches that are necessary to achieve strategic ends and create enduring effects in the current and future environment. The Human Domain consists of the people (individuals, groups, and populations) in the environment, including their perceptions, decision-making, and behavior. Success in the Human Domain depends on an understanding of, and competency in, the social, cultural, physical, informational, and psychological elements that influence human behavior.2 Operations in the Human Domain strengthen the resolve, commitment, and capability of partners; earn the support of neutral actors in the environment; and take away backing and assistance from adversaries. If successful in these efforts, Special Operations Forces (SOF) will gain military, political, and psychological advantages over their opponents. The OHD Concept integrates existing capabilities and disciplines into an updated and comprehensive approach that is applicable to all SOF core activities.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Saudi-Iranian Gray Zone Competition in MENA

The United States is regularly challenged by the actions of states and non-state actors in the nebulous, confusing, and ambiguous environment known as the Gray Zone. Planners, decision makers, and operators within the national security enterprise need to understand what tools are available for their use in the Gray Zone and how to best develop, employ, and coordinate those tools. This report summarizes the results of simulations created and executed by the ICONS Project as part of a larger study to capture at least some of the information needed toward that end.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Population Support for ISIL in Iraq

Opinion polls conducted by independent outfits in 2015 and 2016 derive the same result: the vast majority of Muslims in the region—both inside and outside of the CJOA—do not support ISIL. In fact, ISIL enjoys very low support as a percent of the population across all countries covered by the surveys included in this compilation. Syria showed the highest level of support (20%) while most Muslim-majority countries fall in the single digits (Mauro, 2015). These low numbers recede further when support is defined as providing active or material support rather than sympathy for the cause (Burson-Marsteller, 2016).
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Iran Nuclear Deal Implications

Question (V6): Strategic and Operational Implications of the Iran Nuclear Deal. What are the strategic and operational implications of the Iran nuclear deal on the US-led coalition¹s ability to prosecute the war against ISIL in Iraq and Syria and to create the conditions for political, humanitarian and security sector stability?
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Countering the ISIL Fight

Based on the balance of actor interests, resolve and capability, the defeat of Islamic State organization seems highly likely (defeat of the ideology is another matter). Specifically, the push for ISIL defeat in Syria is led by Iran and the Assad regime, both of which have high potential capacity and high resolve relative to ISIL defeat. Only ISIL has high resolve toward ISIL expansion in Syria. Iran, Jordan,Iraqi Kurds, Saudi Arabia, and Shi’a Hardline & Militia, show highest resolve for ISIL defeat in Iraq.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Part IV: Results of 5 of 8 Conflicts in Iraqi-Syria

This briefing is the final part of a four-part study exploring the dynamics of the central Middle East conflict system. Part II describes the system and why it is critical to assess U.S. security interests and activities in the context of the entire system rather than just the conflicts (e.g., defeat of ISIL) in which the U.S. is most interested. Part II describes the analytic approach used to assess regional dynamics and regional futures based on the alignments and conflicts among three critical drivers: actor interests, resources and resolves. Part III illustrates the analytic process applied to 20-plus actor over five of the eight conflicts. Part IV presents the results of the interest, resolve, capability assessment.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Subjective Decision Analysis: Egypt, Iran, Iraq, ...

The SMA Strategic Deterrence effort is a methodological study to evaluate the appropriateness and utility of modeling and wargaming to support the analytic requirements of the Deterrence Operations Joint Operating Concept (DO JOC). The objective of the study is to determine which aspects of deterrence operations and planning can be appropriately analyzed through gaming, and which aspects can be appropriately analyzed through different forms of modeling. The project also examines the synthesis of deterrence gaming and modeling, how the results of gaming can inform deterrence modeling, and how modeling can shape deterrence gaming.
Year Published:
2009
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SMA Publication

Assessing Buffers and Drivers of Conflict in the Arab Gulf

Experts contend that the risk of militarization of the dispute between Qatar and the Quartet is low. However, prolonged tension between the two sides has failed attempts at mediation and the underlying issues persist.
Year Published:
2020
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SMA Publication

The Future of Global Competition & Conflict Comparative Analysis: A Media Ecology & Strategic Analysis (MESA) Group Report

This report provides a comparative analysis of Chinese, Russian, Iranian, and Venezuelan media narratives regarding visions of the future of global competition, including their instruments of exerting power (DIME), purported vulnerabilities and necessary capabilities, projected allies and adversaries, views on the future of global order (FGO), the US, and EU, as well as the available means by which global competition should be managed.
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

Iran Country Report- An NSI Aggrieved Populations Analysis

Five datasets on wealth and status distribution in Iran were analyzed: 2017 World Bank quintile and decile estimates of income, and Iranian government income data for years 2015 and 2006 for both urban and rural populations.
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

Regional Competitors in the Great Power Context – A Future of Global Competition and Conflict Virtual Think Tank Report

[Q7] How can the US defend its interests against regional competitors (e.g., Iran, North Korea) in ways complementary to US strategy vis-à-vis China and Russia, while not undercutting other US interests?
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

Iran’s Relationship to Yemeni Zayidis

Question 10: Do views of the Velayat-i-Faqih (in Yemen) present challenges to Iranian influences among holders of Zayid views?
Year Published:
2018
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SMA Publication

Iranian Media Narrative Perspectives on the US and Global Competition: A Media Ecology & Strategic Analysis (MESA) Group Report

The following highlights Iranian perspectives on: geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East, the US, the global order, and the role of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the region coming from Iranian news media intended for domestic audiences. The study analyzed 134 Iranian news articles across four native Iranian news media publications from 2014 to present.
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

Influential Violent Extremist Organizational Partners of Iran

This paper addresses two key Violent Extremist Organizations (VEOs) with close ties to the Iran regime. More specifically, we examine the organizational and leadership characteristics of the Badr Brigades and Kata’ib Hezbollah (KH) using the Leadership for the Extreme and Dangerous for Innovative Results (LEADIR) project. While much of the discussion on Iranian influence focuses on Hezbollah or the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, we believe both the Badr Brigades and KH warrant attention for at least three reasons. First, both VEOs are highly sophisticated with the operational capabilities to strike US and coalition targets. Second, the leaders of both VEOs function as Partners of Iran and their decision-making reflects the strategic vision of the Iranian regime. Third, in times of increased conflict, both will have increased opportunity to strike our coalition forces currently in the Iraq region.
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

Media Narrative Analysis: Iranian, Russian, and Chinese News Coverage of the Future of Afghanistan

This project analyzed Chinese, Russian, and Iranian media narratives concerning interests in, and future prospects of, Afghanistan stability through three phases: Phase I (May-June, 2018; 79 articles), Phase II, (July-August, 2018; 124 articles), Phase III (October-September, 2018; 180 articles). Across these three phases, the analysis revealed consistent narrative patterns regarding the following:
Year Published:
2018
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SMA Publication

The Options for Getting to Political Reconciliation in Afghanistan

In August of 2018, United States Central Command asked the Strategic Multilayer Assessment Reachback team, How can the United States best increase the resolve and capability of regional actors to get to political reconciliation in Afghanistan? This report highlights the results of NSI’s Interest-Resolve-Capability (I-R-C)™ analysis of Afghanistan stakeholder dynamics.
Year Published:
2018
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SMA Speaker Series (Tagged: Iran)

SMA Speaker Series

The Shape of the Future Operating Environment: How Our Adversaries Have Learned to Stop Worrying and Ignore the Bomb

In July of this year, at the request of USSTRATCOM, SMA initiated an effort to address eight questions regarding the implications of the increasing numbers, and expanding capabilities, of US nuclear adversaries.
November 11, 2021
Bragg, B
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SMA Speaker Series

Statelet of Survivors: The Making of a Semi-Autonomous Region in Northeast Syria: US Options in the New Phase of the Syrian Conflict

The political overtures made by Turkish President Erdogan to normalize relations with the Assad regime are reshaping the dynamics of the Syrian civil war.
August 28, 2024
Dr. Amy Austin Holmes
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SMA Speaker Series

A Hotter and Drier Future Ahead - An Assessment of Climate Change in U.S. Central Command

Climate-related stressors present significant risks to future stability in countries worldwide, affecting all US Combatant Commands.
May 9, 2024
Dr. Michelle Miro, Dr. Flannery C. Dolan, Karen M. Sudkamp, and Jeffrey Martini
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SMA Speaker Series

A New Asian Order is Emerging

India’s expanding political influence is altering the current geopolitical order in Asia, with India positioned at its center. India’s growing role in geopolitics will over time take away some of the geopolitical focus on the Asia-Pacific region and place it on the Indo-Pacific region. Mr. Soliman emphasized that India’s geographical position at the center of the economic corridor running between China and the Middle East, give it a political and economic advantage. India’s massive population gives it massive economic and industrial potential on its own. India is also in a unique position to build political ties throughout the Indo-Pacific region with its historic and cultural ties throughout the Asia-Pacific and Middle East regions. To further its geopolitical influence in the Indo-Pacific, India is not only relying on its economic potential, but also signing military and security deals with other nations in the region. India is increasing its dialogue with several significant actors in the Middle East: Egypt, Israel, and Saudi Arabia. Finally, Mr. Soliman put forth that Shinzo Abe’s Indo-Pacific vision, an India-centric strategy with a focus on bilateral security dialogue with Australia and the US, is now coming true.
July 26, 2023
Mr. Mohammed Soliman (Middle East Institute)
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SMA Speaker Series

Deterring Iran in the Gray Zone: Insights from Four Decades of Conflict

Iran has been increasing its gray zone activities to compete geopolitically with the US and other rivals. Mr. Eisenstadt commented that states which are not content with the geopolitical status quo, like China, Russia, and Iran, will increase their gray zone activities.
October 4, 2021
Michael Eisenstadt
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SMA Speaker Series

The Role of Political Islam in COVID Times and Regional Developments

SMA hosted a speaker session, presented by Prof. Simon Mabon (Sectarianism, Proxies & De-sectarianisation (SEPAD)), Dr. Luciano Zaccara (Gulf Studies Center, Qatar University), Dr. Lucia Ardovini (Middle East and North Africa Programme, Swedish Institute of International Affairs (UI)), and Dr. Rashed Alrasheed (Richardson Institute, Lancaster University), as a part of its SMA UK MoD Speaker Series.Prof. Simon Mabon began by stating that the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic increased dialogue among many of the countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council(GCC): a group which had the potential to geopolitically reconstruct the region. He also compared COVID-19’s ability to improve the region’s political relationships to the softening of GCC geopolitics after past natural disasters. An example that illustrates the enhancement of political relations in the Gulf is the United Arab Emirates’ use of humanitarian aid to improve its own political image by helping countries with less resources early on in the pandemic. However, as GCC countries began suffering economically and COVID-19 rates increased, countries began to point blame, mostly at Iran, and the prospect for a GCC geopolitical renaissance faltered.
February 23, 2021
Prof. Simon Mabon, Dr. Luciano Zaccara, Dr. Lucia Ardovini, Dr. Rashed Alrasheed
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SMA Speaker Series

The Lapsing Arms Embargo on Iran: Challenges, Change, Iranian Military Modernization, and US Responses

SMA hosted a speaker session as a part of its SMA CENTCOM Speaker Series, featuring Mr. Behnam Ben Taleblu (Foundation for Defense of Democracies).Mr. Taleblu’s presentation focused on the lapsing UN arms embargo on Iran. He stated that four primary groups are affected by the expiration of the arms embargo: 1) those who are interested in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA); 2) the US sanctions community; 3) those in the US military who are looking at Iran’s conventional and asymmetric capabilities; and 4) those employed by multilateral or international organizations, or by non-government organizations that do diplomacy with UN Security Council (UNSC) member nations. Mr. Taleblu also provided a brief history of US arms embargoes against Iran, beginning with that of 1979 (during the Islamic Revolution and the Iranian hostage crisis).
October 10, 2020
Behnam Ben Taleblu
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SMA Speaker Series

Russia and the Expiration of the UN Arms Embargo on Iran

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Mark Katz (George Mason University) as part of its SMA CENTCOM/EUCOM Speaker Series. Dr. Katz discussed UN Security Council Resolution 2231 (UNSCR 2231) in detail, which was adopted in support of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) (i.e., the Iranian Nuclear Accord of 2015). This resolution requires approval for certain types of weapons to be sold to Iran and is considered to be an embargo. This provision is dated to expire in October 2020, and Russia has expressed its intent to sell weapons to Iran immediately after. The US withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018 but is now introducing a Security Council resolution extending this arms embargo indefinitely on the grounds that the US is an original JCPOA signatory. Dr. Katz explained that if this resolution passes, all pre-2015 sanctions on Iran will return, which is unpopular amongst Russia and China. He argued that Russia is less concerned with selling weapons to Iran, but it is motivated to isolate the US from Europe and its Middle Eastern allies. Dr. Katz then explained that the results of the upcoming US presidential election may impact Russian behavior. If President Trump is reelected, Russia will likely exchange an extension of the JCPOA arms embargo for something valuable to them, such as an extension of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) due to expire in early 2021. However, if Biden is elected, Moscow may anticipate a US renewal of New START and rejoining of the JCPOA, giving Russia motivation to sell weapons to Iran before Biden is sworn in. Dr. Katz elaborated that Russia and Iran are both currently under US sanctions, so there is “not much to lose” if Russia chooses to sell and deliver weapons to Iran. On the other hand, a reason Russia may delay its selling of weapons to Iran relates to its desire to maintain good relations with itsother Middle Eastern allies, such as Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Iran’s inability to pay for weapons coupled with these countries’ potential agreement of compensation towards Russia could decide which countries Russia chooses to sell to. Finally, Dr. Katz claimed that Russia may exploit divisions between the US and its other allies who continue to support the JCPOA to keep the US from doing the same for countries allied with Russia, adding that if the US were to point out Russia’s unreliability as an ally, smaller Middle Eastern countries may be more willing to support US policies instead.
August 17, 2020
Dr. Mark Katz
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SMA Speaker Series

Maximum Pressure on Iran: Where Do We Go From Here

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Mr. Richard Nephew (Columbia University) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM Speaker Series. Mr. Nephew first suggested that the series of tit for tat events between the US and Iran that occurred after the US decided to withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and restart its sanctions campaign has been predictable. Therefore, Mr. Nephew focused his presentation on what this tit for tat engagement might lead to instead. He then argued that the US’s maximum pressure campaign is likely to result in failure. The two most fundamental problems with the maximum pressure campaign, according to Mr. Nephew, involve 1) the manner in which US sanctions against Iran were applied and 2) the absence of off-ramps for Iran. He explained that the partners and allies that the US has gathered to support its sanctions are not particularly invested in the situation and are therefore not providing much reinforcement. Consequently, the US is relying mostly on the force and strength of its economy to reinforce its own sanctions. The US is also encountering nations who are directly opposed to its sanctions against Iran, such as China and India, which makes it even more difficult for the maximum pressure campaign to be successful. Mr. Nephew stated that there are also tremendous inconsistencies in this campaign. He explained that when a nation has a mission of policing global economic activity and doesn’t have much direct international support, it must engage in frequent sanctions corrections. However, the US’s inconsistency makes it difficult for Iran to believe that the US won’t back out of a negotiation at the last minute. Furthermore, the pressure that the US has put on Iran’s relations with Hezbollah has made negotiations with Iran nearly impossible, according to Mr. Nephew, as Iran believes this off-ramp is implausible and incredible. Next, Mr. Nephew stated that maximum pressure could still produce economic problems in Iran; however, it is unlikely that Iran will face severe economic struggles within the next few years. Furthermore, political collapse does not necessarily go hand in hand with economic collapse, and Iran is fully prepared to use force to maintain power. To conclude, Mr. Nephew presented several broader implications for US sanctions policy involving international skepticism about US intent and reliability, sanctions effectiveness, a reduction in international dependency on the US economy, and these sanctions’ effects on Nordstream 2.
January 31, 2020
Richard Nephew
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SMA Speaker Series

US-Iranian Strategic Competition Post-Soleimani: Buffers and Drivers of Escalation

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Mr. Behnam Ben Taleblu (Foundation for Defense of Democracies) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM Speaker Series. Mr. Ben Taleblu began his presentation by stating that those who saw a vector for US-Iranian escalation in 2019 will continue to see it in 2020. He explained that there are five domains in which Iran may escalate: 1) nuclear, 2) cyber, 3) missile, 4) land, and 5) naval. He emphasized that Iran is most likely to increase its engagement in the missile and land domains, though it is a bit less certain as to whether Iran will continue to engage in the cyber domain as much as it did in 2019. He also indicated that Iran’s naval and nuclear engagement will remain steady in 2020. Next, Mr. Ben Taleblu explained that Iran believes the US has the potential to engage in three types of war: 1) soft war, 2) semi-hard war, and 3) hard war. He stated that Iran has previously downplayed the US’s ability to unleash a hard war. However, the Trump Administration’s recent introduction of force into the US’s maximum pressure policy (e.g., retaliation for the two US contractors killed in December 2019, the late December 2019 strike against Hezbollah, and the killing of Qassem Soleimani) has led Iran to pay more attention to the potential for US engagement in a semi-hard or hard war. The killing of Soleimani in particular has changed Iranian perceptions of the US’s maximum pressure campaign, as this act jumped several rungs in the escalation ladder and introduced much more ambiguity regarding the US’s capability and willingness to use hardline force against Iran. Mr. Ben Taleblu spoke about the impact that US domestic politics may have on the situation as well, and emphasized that it is unclear as to whether these internal dynamics will create buffers or drivers for escalation. He also indicated that the US needs to be clearer about its intentions towards Iran. To conclude, Mr. Ben Taleblu explained that the American maximum pressure campaign, Iranian regional gains, and Iranian politics—particularly with regards to the three main forces driving Iranian foreign policy (ideology, strategy, and factionalism)—are all potential drivers of Iranian escalation. To conclude, Mr. Ben Taleblu presented four potential dampeners against Iranian escalation: 1) US maximum pressure against Iran, leading to a reduction in Iran’s willingness to react; 2) factionalism within Iran; 3) domestic pressure within Iran; and 4) an increased perception of US resolve.
January 28, 2020
Behnam Ben Taleblu
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SMA Speaker Series

Iraqi Stability and the Impacts of Recent US-Iranian Tensions

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Ms. Christine van den Toorn (Iraq Fund for Higher Education (IFHE)) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM Speaker Series. Ms. van den Toorn’s presentation focused on Iraqi stability and US-Iraq relations, in light of the Iraqi protest movement and US-Iranian escalations. She began by providing an overview of the Iraqi protest movement, highlighting that the Shia-centric, post-2003 order in Iraq is over. This shift towards a new order began in 2015 when the protests began, and since then, the movement has picked up speed and culminated. Moreover, according to Ms. van den Toorn, there are now indications of widespread discontent and a rejection of the current political order and elite. She stated that a range of socio-economic groups and ethnic groups are participating in the movement. Furthermore, there is a strong silent majority that supports the protestors’ ideals and goals, including a complete overhaul of the Iraqi system of governance, as well. Ms. van den Toorn then expressed her belief that this is a positive movement that could lead to a more stable, prosperous, democratic Iraq. This large group of protestors, she explained, are not only seeking jobs, education, a better life, and more economic opportunities, but they are also seeking a homeland and an entirely new political order, free from the current class of elites, who have not accepted blame or responsibility for the lack of employment and economic opportunities. The protestors also want the current political elites to accept accountability for the violence against protestors. Ms. van den Toorn proceeded to discuss how the recent airline strike in Iran and the death of Qassem Soleimani have caused the protest movement to come to a temporary halt. Despite these setbacks, she expressed confidence that these protests will continue. To conclude, Ms. van den Toorn spoke about how the US can assist Iraq’s movement towards reform. She stated that ultimately, US engagement in Iraq is beneficial for both parties, though there is a lack of trust in the US’s provision of continued assistance. Ms. van den Toorn stressed that the US must remain a stable ally in order for a more stable, US-allied, prosperous Iraq to emerge as a result of the protest movements. Although US-Iranian tensions are indeed a setback, an opportunity for positive change in Iraq still remains.
January 14, 2020
Christine van den Toorn
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SMA Speaker Series

Iran Under Maximum Pressure: Between Graduated Escalation and Strategic Patience

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Mr. Behnam Ben Taleblu (Foundation for Defense of Democracies) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM Speaker Series. Mr. Taleblu began his brief by stating that the primary force driving Iran’s escalatory actions as of late April/early May 2019 is political in nature. He explained that Iran has shifted from a posture of strategic escalation to one of strategic patience, and this shift was driven by a change in Iran’s understanding of the efficacy of the US’s maximum pressure campaign. Iran believes that it can outlast the US’s campaign, and it is also attempting to force the US back into the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) agreement. Furthermore, according to Mr. Taleblu, Iran believes that the US does not have the resolve over time to contest Iran in all of the domains that it perceives as important: nuclear, cyber, missiles, and geopolitical. He then specified that Iran has and is likely to escalate in these domains.
October 8, 2019
Behnam Ben Taleblu
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SMA Speaker Series

Trends in Online Foreign Influence Efforts

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Professor Jacob Shapiro (Princeton University) as a part of its SMA General Speaker Series. To begin, Professor Shapiro outlined three criteria used to define a foreign influence effort: 1) “foreign” (i.e., an attempt by country A to project content in country B), 2) “deceptive” (i.e., masquerading content as organic to country B), and 3) “political” (i.e., possessing a clearly identifiable objective). He then stated that there have been a total of 53 foreign influence efforts against 24 different countries since 2014, 72% of which were conducted by Russia and most others by Iran. He highlighted that many of these efforts have occurred simultaneously, though many were instigated in support of different political goals.
August 15, 2019
Jacob N. Shapiro
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SMA Speaker Series

The United States, Iran, and the Politics of the JCPOA

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Professor Ali Ansari (University of St. Andrews / Royal United Services Institute (RUSI)) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM Speaker Series. Professor Ansari first stated that some of the issues related to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) are a result of the negotiation process itself. He explained that the US sees the election of Iranian President, Hassan Rouhani, as an important staging post in the relationship between the US and Iran. However, to most Iranians, other factors still inhibit the development of this relationship. In 2009, when the JCPOA was being negotiated, the crisis following the Iranian presidential election brought forth serious divisions between the elite and Iranian citizens.
August 7, 2019
Ali M Ansari
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SMA Speaker Series

An Iran Primer

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Mr. Vern Liebl (Center for Advanced Operational Culture Learning (CAOCL)) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM Speaker Series. Mr. Liebl began by stating that Iran does not present a large military threat to the US. Moreover, Iran’s military capabilities are fairly limited, and it does not have a strong ability to sustain military power in the event of war. Regardless, in the context of this conflict, Mr. Liebl stressed the importance of viewing Iran’s actions through its own perspective.
July 12, 2019
Vernie Liebl
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SMA Speaker Series

Interrogating Tensions in the Persian Gulf: Iran, the US and the GCC

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Simon Mabon (Lancaster University) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM Speaker Series. During this presentation, Dr. Mabon discussed the complexity of the broader competition in the Persian Gulf, posed a series of questions about political Islam (any interpretation of Islam as a source of political identity and action) and organizational security, assessed the role that the US can play to bring about peace in the region, and explained how this competition fits into the broader Iranian question. Dr. Mabon explained that the tensions and events unfolding among the Arab states of the Persian Gulf affect the Iran situation.
July 9, 2019
Simon Mabon
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SMA Speaker Series

Deterrence, Coercion, and Escalation Management vis-a-vis Iran: Lessons From Past Confrontations

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Mr. Michael Eisenstadt (The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM Speaker Series. During his presentation, Mr. Eisenstadt discussed Iran’s strategic culture and ways of war. He explained that a nation’s strategic culture is shaped by its decision makers’ perception of the world and the actions they take to achieve their goals. Mr. Eisenstadt then stated that US media is currently fixated on the idea of a full-scale war with Iran and the potential for escalation; however, this focus is unwarranted because one of Iran’s primary goals, based on historical precedents such as the Iran-Iraq War, is to avoid major conflicts.
June 28, 2019
Michael Eisenstadt
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SMA Speaker Series

Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) Iran Panel Discussion

During his portion of the discussion, Dr. Ostovar addressed the following questions: 1) Understanding that Iran wants to operate at a level below armed conflict, what actions by the US would be considered a redline for Iran and why? and 2) If armed conflict arises, where will Iran engage the US military forces and through what branch (Artesh, IRGC, IRGC Qods Force, Proxies)? Dr. Ostovar stated that Iran is operating in an environment that suggests that redlines have been crossed. These redlines are likely the US’s economic sanctions and its attempted oil embargo.
June 21, 2019
Dr. John Arquilla
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SMA Speaker Series

Iran's Military Strategy

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Gawdat Bahgat (National Defense University) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM Speaker Series. During his presentation, Dr. Bahgat spoke about the continuous buildup of Iran’s missile program since the 1970s. He first characterized the program, highlighting that it is the largest and most diverse missile program in the Middle East, though it is not the most lethal. He further stated that, despite the pressure that the US and Europe have been putting on Iran to cease this buildup, Iran has continued its efforts with little hesitation. According to Dr. Bahgat, Iran’s unwillingness to abandon its missile program is a result of its belief that the Islamic Republic cannot exist without its missile program. This is a matter of Iran’s survival
June 18, 2019
Dr. Gawdat Bahgat
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SMA Speaker Series

Modern Political Warfare: Current Practices and Possible Responses

Ms. Robinson focused her presentation on a recent RAND report that examined the practice of political warfare during the Cold War (using George Kennan’s definition as a basis) and similar types of activities today. She first outlined Kennan’s definition of political warfare and then explained how her work applied additional rigor to this definition.
May 15, 2019
Linda Robinson
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SMA Speaker Series

Systemic Shift and the Middle East

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Anoush Ehteshami (Durham University) as a part of its Future of Global Competition & Conflict Speaker Series.
April 25, 2019
Ehteshami, A. (Durham University)
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SMA Speaker Series

UW Countergovernance: Political Warfare in Great Power Competition

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by MAJ Jeffrey Uherka (US Army Special Operations Command (USASOC)) as a part of its SMA NDU Speaker Series.
April 22, 2019
Uherka, J. (US Army Special Operations Command (USASOC))
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SMA Speaker Series

"America’s Foreign Policy: Dealing with Multiple Adversaries amidst Changing Great Power Dynamics"

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Mark Katz (George Mason University) as a part of its Future of Great Power Competition & Conflict Speaker Series. Dr. Katz focused his presentation on the topics presented in two of his recent papers, entitled “America’s Dilemma: Dealing with Multiple Adversaries Simultaneously” and “Fluid Dynamics: Global Great Powers in the 21st Century.”
March 6, 2019
Katz, M. (George Mason University)
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SMA Speaker Series

On Target: Capabilities, Intentions, and the Post-JCPOA Future of Iran’s Ballistic Missiles

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Mr. Behnam Ben Taleblu (Foundation for Defense of Democracies) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM Speaker Series. After summarizing his main conclusions, Mr. Taleblu provided a brief history of Iran’s missile program and outlined Iran’s inventory of ballistic missiles.
October 18, 2018
Taleblu, B. (Foundation for Defense of Democracies)
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SMA Speaker Series

Lessons from Others for Future U.S. Army Operations in and through the Information Environment

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Christopher Paul (RAND) as a part of its SMA General Speaker Series. Dr. Paul spoke about how technological advances and threat use patterns have brought tremendous changes to the information environment (IE). He stated that the US Army must invest in new capabilities and practices in order to remain competitive, and we can learn from prior examples to better our future operations conducted in the IE. He reviewed his key findings, emphasizing that most gaps between the US Army baseline and “effective others” are conceptual and capacity gaps. He also presented a comparative analysis that displayed the degrees of capability of multiple states and non-state actors in various areas, in addition to common concepts and principles across the entities. To conclude, Dr. Paul provided recommendations and key takeaways for the US Army and outlined his observations of Russian efforts in and through the IE.
August 7, 2018
Dr. Christopher Paul
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SMA Speaker Series

SMA CENTCOM (Afghanistan) Panel Discussion

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by BG (Ret.) Feroz Khan (NPS), AMB Hamdullah Mohib (Afghan Ambassador to the United States), Dr. Afshon Ostovar (NPS), Dr. Christopher Twomey (NPS), and moderator, Dr. Hy Rothstein (NPS) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM (Afghanistan) Speaker Series. AMB Mohib first provided his insights on the Afghan peace process and emphasized that US decision makers must keep in mind that the Afghanistan we are dealing with today is not the Afghanistan we dealt with in 2001 or even in 2013. BG (Ret.) Khan then offered a Pakistani perspective and clarified some of the myths and truths about Pakistan’s involvement in and views towards Afghanistan. Dr. Ostovar proceeded to discuss Iran’s interests and key issues in the region. Dr. Twomey then spoke about how China is less interested in Afghanistan than it is in Pakistan, due largely to its security rivalry with India. To conclude the discussion, the panelists commented on noteworthy points brought up during each other’s presentations.
June 13, 2018
Feroz Khan, Hamdullah Mohib, Dr. Christopher Twomey, and Dr. Afshon Ostovar
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NSI Publications (Tagged: Iran)

NSI Publication

Russian and Chinese Influence in Iran: Sources and Future Trends

Among all the experts interviewed for this report, there was a general consensus that relations between Iran and both Russia and China are driven by pragmatic considerations. Many described the Iran-Russia and Iran- China relationships as primarily transactional, with each having something concrete the other needs to meet their domestic economic growth and development needs.
Year Published:
2020
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NSI Publication

IRGC’s Role in the Black Economy

While official data do not exist, the informal (black) economy is estimated to be 35-44 percent of Iran’s stated gross domestic product (GDP), or some 160-200 billion USD.
Year Published:
2020
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NSI Publication

Regime Stability in Iran: The COVID-19 Effect

Iran appears to have been hit hard by the COVID-19 virus, and there has been criticism both within and outside the country over the Iranian regime’s response. The subject matter experts (SMEs) who responded to this question, however, do not think it likely that the pandemic will have novel direct effects on the stability of the Iranian regime, either in the short term or further out.
Year Published:
2020
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NSI Publication

A New US-Iran Nuclear Agreement: What are the Chances?

Most of the expert contributors agree that, though not a certainty, it appears likely that Iran will be willing to reengage in some form of nuclear negotiations with the United States at some point over the next five years.
Year Published:
2020
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NSI Publication

Internal Instability in Iran: Drivers and Regime Response

There was consensus among the subject matter experts (SMEs) who responded to this question that the primary driver of internal instability in Iran is the dismal state of the economy.
Year Published:
2020
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NSI Publication

IRGC-QF Malfeasant Activity Outside of the CENTCOM AOR

Experts interviewed state that they could find no evidence of recent changes in IRGC-QF activity outside of the CENTCOM area of responsibility (AOR). However, there are micro-trends that are of note, particularly for analysts focused on high risk, low probability events.
Year Published:
2020
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NSI Publication

Iran’s Ballistic Missile Launch Criteria: Change or Continuity?

The experts interviewed for this study do not see Iran’s recent operational use of its ballistic missiles as signaling a fundamental change in its foreign policy, which they characterize as deliberate, defensive, and with a long time horizon.
Year Published:
2020
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NSI Publication

The Abraham Accords and Iran’s Unconventional Warfare Activities

The Abraham Accords normalizing diplomatic and economic relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Israel and Bahrain, as well as a less robust agreement with Sudan, represent a historic turning point for Israel. Together with the Camp David Accords (Egypt) and the 1994 Peace Accord (Jordan), the Abraham Accords bring to five the number of Arab states that have officially recognized Israel’s right to exist—a claim that states in the Gulf and Near East have denied since Israel was founded.
Year Published:
2020
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