How do Non-State Entities Taking Actions in a Crisis or Conflict Impact Escalation and Deterrence?

Speaker: Dr. Anna Péczeli (LLNL)

Date: 14 December 2023

Speaker Session Summary

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Anna Péczeli (LLNL) as part of its SMA “Strategic Deterrence Frameworks” (SDF) Speaker Series.

Non-state actors have increased in number, their interest in international relations, and influence since the end of the Cold War. These actors include various entities such as financial institutions, terrorist organizations, and private companies. Dr. Péczeli discussed how these institutions affect deterrence, nuclear deterrence, and change the way in which leaders and the scientific community examine war and peace. She described four different pathways for nuclear escalation: 1) doctrinal use, 2) escalatory use, 3) unauthorized use, and 4) accidental use. Non-state actors have ways to influence all four of these pathways either directly or indirectly. Dr. Péczeli provided a historical overview of how non-state actors’ influence on deterrence has changed since the 1950s before addressing the current threat environment.

Today’s threat environment is complex, information-driven, and made up of actors with large asymmetries. Dr. Péczeli emphasized that the integration of new technologies into nuclear operations can have many benefits; however, this allows for non-state actors to take advantage of new vulnerabilities. She commented that deterrence against non-state actors relies on denial and punishment; however, there are no current de-escalation procedures for how to conduct nuclear deterrence against terrorist organizations. She included recommendations for how the US should approach this problem, including cooperating with allies, industry partners, and academia to better understand the issue as a whole.