Deterrence Among Three to Twelve Nuclear Powers: Fundamental Instability and Mitigation Strategy

Speaker(s):
Dr. Claudio Cioffi-Revilla (George Mason University)
Date of Event:
June 27, 2024
Associated SMA Project

This publication was released as part of the SMA Project "21st C. Deterrence Frameworks".

Author: Dr. Claudio Cioffi-Revilla (George Mason University)

This publication was released as part of the SMA project “21st Century Strategic Deterrence Frameworks.” (SDF) For more information regarding this project, please click here.

Publication Preview

The fundamental instability of bilateral nuclear deterrence (Albert Wohlstetter’s “delicate balance of terror”) is mitigated, in part, by each adversary deploying and maintaining weapons systems that are capable of guaranteeing a second-strike after an adversary has launched a first-strike. Additionally, bilateral arms control measures (norms, treaties, protocols, institutions) provide additional stability. The problem with multicountry nuclear deterrence is that there are no levels of armaments that can support stable deterrence relations among three or more adversaries; except in cases when adversaries coalesce into two alliances, in which case the system reduces to bilateral nuclear deterrence. This paper approaches this problem through formal methods and conceptualizes a solution involving an ensemble of military and politico-diplomatic strategies which, when operating as an enhanced international security regime, can mitigate the fundamental instability of the current multicountry nuclear deterrence system.

: :

Biography: Dr. Claudio Cioffi-Revilla, Phd, D.Pol.Sc., is Distinguished University Professor Emeritus at George Mason University and Courtesy Faculty Affiliate at Florida International University in Miami. He specializes in applied mathematical and computational methods in areas of complex systems, strategy, risk analysis, and international security. At GMU he founded and directed the first interdisciplinary PhD program in Computational Social Science, the first Department of Computational Social Science, and the Center for Social Complexity. He is past president of the Computational Social Science Society, a Jefferson Science Fellow of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, Elected Fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, and Senior Science Adviser to the Director of the State Department’s Office of Geographic and Global Issues at the Bureau of Intelligence and Research. He has served in senior science advisory capacities for the ODNI, DOD/OSD, DOE/LANL, and other USG agencies. Dr. Cioffi is author of more than one hundred peer-reviewed publications and eight books, published by Cambridge University Press, Oxford University Press, Springer Verlag, and Florence University Press, among others. His research has been funded by U.S. National Science Foundation, the Office of Naval Research, DARPA, NATO Science Committee, and international agencies.

No items found.

Site-wide Search

Search all site content, including all NSI and SMA publications, SMA Speaker series, NSI Team member bios, services, portfolio projects, company info, and more.