Planners require context in order to achieve their goals. While planners understand that colder or more elevated locations have implications for an operation, the capacity to similarly adapt plans and operations based on differences in the population’s cultural or cognitive attributes has not been as readily integrated. The purpose of this SMA White Paper is to synthesize ideas across cognitive science and applied social science and translate their application for use in operations and planning within the span of a single document. The contributors each look at distinct cognitive functions that merit attention. By translating or operationalizing the research and discussing it in terms of real-world scenarios, this paper illustrates how the addition of cultural cognitive diversity research will enable more effective, quick, less violent, and less expensive operations.

On 11 May 2017, NPS convened a panel session and discuss areas related to the 4th round of CENTCOM Reach Back Cell Questions. The speakers are listed below, and their biographies are available in Appendix A.

The Strategic Multi-layer Assessment (SMA) office provides planning support to the Combatant Commands with complex operational imperatives requiring multi-agency, multi- disciplinary solutions that are not within core Service/Agency competency. Solutions and participants are sought across the United States Government (USG) and beyond. SMA is accepted and synchronized by Joint Staff and executed by ASD (R&E)/RFD/RRTO.

It would be comforting to be able to find some constants, some footholds in our understanding of terrorism. It is, in fact, the element of mystery as to what drives people to collective violence that makes us uncomfortable -- that fills us with terror. Researchers, policy makers, those who must combat terrorism, and the public hope for some simple formula for radicalization, a program or set of programs that will prevent groups of people from deliberately targeting other people in order to meet their needs (political, economic, social, etc). There is no magic formula within this paper collection, but there are a variety of perspectives that, either in isolation or when integrated, provide new ways to think about terrorism and potentially to inform decisions that will abate this global phenomenon, not exacerbate it.

Cooperative security, stability operations and irregular warfare missions require a better understanding of the complex operational environment, notably through rich contextual understanding of the factors affecting stability. Further assessment, policy, and planning need to consider factors associated with institutional performance (community organizations, government ministries, legal structures, etc.) based on how societies emerge, develop, and function, as well as attributes that provide resiliency and flexibility.

The Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) program provides planning support to COCOMs and warfighters. The program coordinates with the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, and STRATCOM to support global mission analysis and to develop new analytic capabilities in support of specific tasking. These analytic capabilities seek to orient the commander to a decision for action. SMA develops multi-disciplined, multi-organizational teams for specific projects. It emphasizes the integration of human, social, cultural, behavioral, and physical sciences factors through participation of sociologists, anthropologists, economists, and physicist/engineers as well as universities, non-governmental organizations, and various interagency partners. SMA efforts produce focused, multi-disciplined strategic and technical assessments as well as documentation, training and education in the application of newly developed analytic tools.</p>,

This project addresses two major interrelated objectives. The first objective is a substantive one: we are interested in better understanding why Afghan participation in ISAF and ISAF-sponsored initiatives is low, even when participation offers the opportunity for significant near-term benefits. We contend that the ISAF mission in Afghanistan presents a clear example of a shadow of the future decision problem for the Afghan people. Specifically, that low levels of Afghan participation result from the knowledge that ISAF presence is finite and that, after ISAF withdraws, insurgents will punish those who cooperated effectively negating the value of any benefits gained from that cooperation. This situation presents a serious policy challenge for ISAF, and a better understanding of the dynamics and factors that affect Afghans collaboration with ISAF’s local initiatives will help develop policies that can mitigate the current situation.

The objective of Helmand Deep Dive Development and Governance Workshop was to examine academic works and newly generated data and models and to develop guidelines and recommendations for low-cost development project implementation. The Helmand Deep Dive effort focused on water, governance, reconstruction, and job creation.

Two datasets on wealth and status distribution in Afghanistan were analyzed: the 2015 wealth factor scores and distribution of agricultural land from the USAID Demography Health Survey (DHS).

It is not yet clear whether reconciliation in Afghanistan is possible. But what has become increasingly clear is that certain critical elements must be addressed and overcome before any semblance of longterm stability in Afghanistan can emerge. This report is structured into three main sections: 1) contextualizing the current pressure toward reconciliation in terms of what Afghans want, 2) breaking down a potential negotiated settlement into its essential component parts, and 3) looking at some of the spoilers that make this process particularly difficult in Afghanistan.

This project analyzed Chinese, Russian, and Iranian media narratives concerning interests in, and future prospects of, Afghanistan stability through three phases: Phase I (May-June, 2018; 79 articles), Phase II, (July-August, 2018; 124 articles), Phase III (October-September, 2018; 180 articles). Across these three phases, the analysis revealed consistent narrative patterns regarding the following:

This paper provides the TRADOC G27 Models and Simulations Branch initial assessment for Phases I and II of the Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) CENTCOM Afghanistan project. Phase I specifically assessed the impact of three different hypothetical Afghan government constructs: Centralized, Enhanced Local Governance and Decentralized (regional). Phase II focused on the potential outcomes of a negotiated settlement including: truce, power-sharing Afghan government, and reconciliation.

This report provides an analysis of the compatibility of reconciliation and reintegration processes, an assessment of the potential for achieving successful reconciliation and reintegration in Afghanistan, and an examination of which US government capabilities can best be leveraged in support of these processes.

This study was conducted to address the question: How can the US increase the resolve and capability of Pakistan to support political reconciliation in Afghanistan and the region?

In August of 2018, United States Central Command asked the Strategic Multilayer Assessment Reachback team, How can the United States best increase the resolve and capability of regional actors to get to political reconciliation in Afghanistan? This report highlights the results of NSI’s Interest-Resolve-Capability (I-R-C)™ analysis of Afghanistan stakeholder dynamics.

SMA hosted a panel discussion focusing on the most recent round of CENTCOM Reach Back questions as a part of its SMA CENTCOM (Afghanistan) Speaker Series. The panelists for this session included Dr. John Arquilla (Naval Postgraduate School [NPS]), Mr. Thomas Barfield (Boston University), Dr. Hy Rothstein (NPS), and Dr. Craig Whiteside (NPS).

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Karl Kaltenthaler (University of Akron and Case Western Reserve University) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM (Afghanistan) Speaker Series. Dr. Kaltenthaler first provided a brief summary of the present state of Afghanistan-Pakistan relations.

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Col Eero Keravuori (CENTCOM Combined Strategic Analysis Group J5-G) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM Speaker Series. Col Keravuori discussed the realignment of focus within CENTCOM — “a new great game”— looks at three factors that can be assessed to determine a pathway to Afghanistan’s stability (legacy of persistent instability, along with internal and external factors). Col Keravuori discussed each of these in turn, elaborating on internal factors (Afghan government, the Taliban, “power brokers,” and economics) and external factors (Afghanistan’s near neighbors and other powers) that have made stability difficult to achieve. Col Keravuori concluded by presenting a list of things that should be done to assist Afghanistan on its path towards stability and offering a series of relevant questions that SMA could help CENTCOM answer.

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Barnett Koven (University of Maryland START) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM Speaker Series. Dr. Koven began the session by presenting some of the problems evident in data analyses. He argued that removing erroneous data is difficult, automated analyses are still devoid of theory and human-like cognition, and we often apply the wrong theory when performing data analyses. Dr. Koven proceeded to explore this last problem further.

The Indo-Pacific region is home to approximately 60% of the world’s population and contributes 60% of the world’s gross domestic product (GDP), making it one of the most significant regions to monitor.

China’s economic slowdown coupled with its ambition to continuously compete with the US both economically and politically is compelling Beijing to intensify its efforts to increase political influence in the Global South. Mr. Schuman, who authored an article on why China will struggle to win over the Global South and how India can aid the US in countering China’s efforts, suggested that China’s ultimate geopolitical goal is to reshape the current political world order.

Combatants’ willingness to fight and sacrifice their lives, family, or personal property has altered the expected outcome of military conflicts throughout history. An opponent’s unexpected will to fight has affected the US in many of its regional conflicts, such as Vietnam and Korea. Recent conflicts in Iraq and Ukraine have further demonstrated that leaders in the US and other countries have a poor understanding of what constitutes a combatant’s will to fight and its effects on the battlefield. Most research to understand populations utilize mass survey data collection, which lacks the scientific rigor that analytical study of this topic requires. The research by Artis International uses online tools and social media, brain scans, and in-person interviews to understand what affects individuals’ will to fight. The studies focus on right-wing nationalists in Spain, jihadist fighters, and Ukrainian soldiers defending their homeland.

The research team from RAND examined several cases of political stabilization in countries following civil war to predict the likelihood of whether a state will return to violence after peace in the future.

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Haroro Ingram (George Washington University) and Mr. Omar Mohammed (Lecturer, Middle East History and Cultural Heritage Diplomacy, Sciences Po University) as part of its SMA General Speaker Series.

SMA hosted a speaker session with Mr. Alec Bierbauer (Blackrock Strategy, LLC) and Col Mark Cooter (USAF, Retired) as part of its SMA General Speaker Series.

The Taliban was able to retake Afghanistan because of several factors including: a) grievances against the Afghan Central Government by its citizens, b) the Taliban’s ability to launch military operations from the Afghan-Pakistan border, c) the military failures of Afghanistan’s National Security Force (ANSF), and d) the Taliban’s religious connection to Afghanistan’s population.

This SMA CENTCOM (Afghanistan) panel reviewed findings from research examining stability, reconciliation, and reintegration in Afghanistan. Dr. Cooley analyzed Chinese, Russian, and Iranian media to gauge their orientation toward potential reconciliation scenarios.

SMA hosted a panel discussion as a part of its SMA CENTCOM (Afghanistan) Speaker Series. Presenters included Mr. James Krakar (US Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC) G27 Models and Simulations Branch), Dr. Karl Kaltenthaler (University of Akron and Case Western Reserve University), Mr. Vern Liebl (US Marine Corps University, Center for Advanced Operational and Culture Learning), Mr. Michael Logan (University of Nebraska at Omaha), and Dr. Craig Whiteside (Naval War College at the Naval Postgraduate School).

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Mr. Raffaello Pantucci (Royal United Services Institute [RUSI]) as a part of its Future of Global Competition & Conflict Speaker Series.

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Karl Kaltenthaler (University of Akron) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM (Afghanistan) Speaker Series. Dr. Kaltenthaler first outlined his key observations from studying various Salafi Jihadi groups.

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Gina Ligon (University of Nebraska, Omaha) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM (Afghanistan) Speaker Series. During her presentation, Dr. Ligon addressed the following question: “What are the drivers of instability and buffers against it in Afghanistan?”

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Karl Kaltenthaler (University of Akron) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM (Afghanistan) Speaker Series.

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Mr. David Young (Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction [SIGAR]) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM (Afghanistan) Speaker Series. Mr. Young began his presentation by defining stabilization and providing an overview of his recent project for SIGAR. He discussed the two critical decisions that contributed to the failure of USAID and DoD stabilization efforts in Afghanistan: “prioritizing the most insecure districts first” and “drawing down forces and civilians on calendar-based timelines rather than conditions-based timelines.” He then detailed the SIGAR project’s seven primary findings and ten distinct lessons learned. To conclude his brief, Mr. Young provided several recommendations regarding future stabilization efforts and planning.

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Mr. Raffaello Pantucci (Royal United Services Institute [RUSI]) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM (Afghanistan) Speaker Series. Mr. Pantucci first provided a brief history of China’s relations with Afghanistan and outlined China’s four primary interests in Afghanistan: 1) direct security concerns (specifically Uighur militancy), 2) security and instability threats into Central Asia (specifically Pakistan) and then directly into China, 3) economic opportunity in mineral resources, and 4) broader connectivity, which would consequently aid the prosperity of China’s westernmost province. Furthermore, he discussed China’s economic relations with Afghanistan and how Afghanistan may affect China’s “One Belt, One Road” initiative. Mr. Pantucci concluded his presentation by detailing China’s security contributions and multilateral efforts in Afghanistan, as well as China’s future in Afghanistan.

SMA hosted a panel discussion as a part of its SMA CENTCOM (Afghanistan) Speaker Series. The speakers for this panel discussion included Ms. Sarah Canna (NSI, Inc.), Dr. Skye Cooley (Oklahoma State University), Dr. Robert Hinck (Monmouth College), Mr. James Krakar (USARMY TRADOC), and Dr. Sabrina Pagano (NSI, Inc.). Ms. Canna provided a brief description of Phase I of the most recent CENTCOM Reach Back effort, which focuses on South Asia and looks at a variety of future stability outcomes for Afghanistan. Mr. Krakar then discussed the TRADOC G-27 Modeling & Simulation Branch’s (i.e. Athena Simulation) contributions to the effort, highlighting the simulation’s four major findings. Next, Dr. Pagano spoke about NSI’s Pathways model, which evaluates which of several examined pathways Afghanistan is currently on, where it is headed, and what drivers, buffers, and barriers to stability are involved. Dr. Cooley and Dr. Hinck proceeded to discuss their main findings after examining Chinese and Russian news media coverage related to security and stability in Afghanistan. Ms. Canna concluded the session by briefly speaking about NSI’s initial Interest, Resolve, and Capability (IRC) analysis for Afghanistan.

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Ms. Sarah Chayes (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace [CEIP]) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM (Afghanistan) Speaker Series. During her discussion, Ms. Chayes provided insights on whether there is ‘good’ corruption in Afghanistan and how corruption is understood there, based on her 10 years of experience in Kandahar. She also described how Afghans responded when she asked what corruption meant to them. Moreover, she emphasized that the degree to which ordinary citizens feel like they have input into the decision-making process and real checks on power are critical, as opposed to devolution, which would not solve the corruption problem. Ms. Chayes concluded the session by discussing how decisions are made in Afghanistan, how the Soviet invasion disrupted and altered the its former democratic structure, and how the majority of Afghanistan’s problems resulted from external actors’ involvement as opposed to internal issues.

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Mr. Sher Jan Ahmadzai (University of Nebraska at Omaha) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM (Afghanistan) Speaker Series. During this discussion, Mr. Ahmadzai stated that there are both internal and external factors that contribute to instability in Afghanistan (all of which he discussed in detail). These internal factors include Afghanistan’s system of governance, peace efforts and reconciliation, warlords, and social justice among all groups, while the external factors include neighboring countries (i.e. Pakistan, Russia, Iran, China, India, NATO, and the US). Mr. Ahmadzai also explained what Afghan leadership can do internally and what stakeholders can do externally to achieve stability in Afghanistan.

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Ms. Linda Robinson (RAND) and Ms. Laurel Miller (RAND) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM (Afghanistan) Speaker Series. Ms. Miller spoke about how the United States can gain greater cooperation from Pakistan, which, she argues, is critical for achieving US objectives in Afghanistan. She discussed why Pakistan has resisted pressure to stop hedging against the US strategy in Afghanistan, and she outlined the options and constraints that would be involved if the US exercised leverage. Ms. Miller also explained how Pakistan might be convinced that collaboration with the United States would be preferable to hedging. Ms. Robinson concluded the session by offering potential “carrots and sticks” that could be used to entice cooperation from Pakistan.

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Mr. Johnny Walsh (United States Institute of Peace [USIP]) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM (Afghanistan) Speaker Series. Mr. Walsh discussed what key issues would be covered if the involved parties in Afghanistan were to work towards drafting an agreement. He stated that five fronts would need to be addressed: 1) constitutional review, 2) the distribution of political power, 3) the fate of Taliban fighters and detainees, 4) local security and how it can be sustained in areas in which the Taliban is strong, and 5) the role of international forces in Afghanistan. He then presented his preliminary findings after conducting interviews with Afghan leaders, or “bond respondents,” on each of these topics, along with USIP’s research findings, which outline Taliban fighters’ and commanders’ views on the same topics.

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Mr. Vern Liebl (Center for Advanced Operational Culture Learning (CAOCL)) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM (Afghanistan) Speaker Series. Mr. Liebl explained that, in Afghanistan, three resources dictate power in Afghanistan: zar (gold), zan (women), and zameen (land). Family and tribal elements, he argues, are the two primary factors that affect informal governance. He also identified the key players in the “village power game” and stated that only two sets of policies can serve the interests of rural people (Islamic-based governance policies and village-based economic policies). Thus, political parties are divided into two major categories (Islamic vs. non-Islamic parties, and pro-rural economy vs. pro-urban economy parties). Mr. Liebl also reviewed the formal governance structure in Afghanistan, discussed the competing elements of Afghanistan’s formal and informal governance structures, and stressed that US policymakers keep in mind where the real governance lies in Afghanistan when making decisions.

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Ms. Linda Robinson (RAND) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM (Afghanistan) Speaker Series. Ms. Robinson focused on her DOD-sponsored RAND study on stabilization entitled “Finding the Right Balance: DOD Roles in Stabilization,” as well as its application to US policy and Afghanistan and South Asia strategy. The report concluded that a re-scoping of DOD policies would likely provide a better approach towards stabilization than the current one and affirmed the importance of supporting organic versus imposed processes. Furthermore, she spoke about how RAND’s evaluation of past experiences, current capability, and current capacity of stabilization efforts concluded that the DOD should “prioritize stabilization as a mission but focus on and improve its performance in three areas.” These three areas are: prioritizing security stability functions; providing support to other stability functions; and performing cross-cutting informational, coordination, and physical support roles. Ms. Robinson proceeded to outline the report’s other key findings and recommended revisions to DOD stabilization policy. She concluded the session by explaining the evolution of DOD stabilization policy and the application of these developments and findings to South Asia strategy.

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by BG (Ret.) Feroz Khan (NPS), AMB Hamdullah Mohib (Afghan Ambassador to the United States), Dr. Afshon Ostovar (NPS), Dr. Christopher Twomey (NPS), and moderator, Dr. Hy Rothstein (NPS) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM (Afghanistan) Speaker Series. AMB Mohib first provided his insights on the Afghan peace process and emphasized that US decision makers must keep in mind that the Afghanistan we are dealing with today is not the Afghanistan we dealt with in 2001 or even in 2013. BG (Ret.) Khan then offered a Pakistani perspective and clarified some of the myths and truths about Pakistan’s involvement in and views towards Afghanistan. Dr. Ostovar proceeded to discuss Iran’s interests and key issues in the region. Dr. Twomey then spoke about how China is less interested in Afghanistan than it is in Pakistan, due largely to its security rivalry with India. To conclude the discussion, the panelists commented on noteworthy points brought up during each other’s presentations.